Memo: Election 2018 = Predictions + What to Watch For + Winner + Losers

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Election 2018 - What to Watch For = The Dirty Dozen:

1. Thirty-six gubernatorial seats are up for grabs this year, and Republicans must defend 26 of them.

2. For Democrats to take the House, they need to flip 23 seats. 

3. If Democrats retake the House, it will mark the third time in 12 years that the chamber switched control.

4. If Democrats win big in key governors’ races, say Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump's Election 2020 path to victory just got a whole lot more difficult.

5. Nancy Pelosi to return as Speaker.

6. A record number of women in Congress.

7. A flurry of investigations and subpoenas.

8. Iran sanctions remain.

9. China trade frictions continue - there is bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill for the US to stand tough against China.

10. Ben Wittes' cannon will be back in service.

11. Mueller has been in a pre-election “blackout” - he'll be back with new indictments - look for Roger Stone to be in the barrel soon.

12. Infrastructure spending will pass on Capitol Hill.

Predictions:

House = Democrats win control with 231 seats to 204 seats - a 36 seat gain for Team Nancy

Senate = 50-50 split with VP Pence breaking ties next session

Top Races Winners - Governors:

CO: Polis (D)
CT: Lamont (D
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Runoff
IA: Hubbell (D)
KS: Kelly (D)
ME: Mills (D)
MI: Whitmer (D)
MN: Walz (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
NH: Sununu (R)
NM: Grisham (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
OR: Brown (D)
SD: Noem (R)
WI: Evers (D)

Top Races Winners - Senate:

TX: Cruz (R)
ND: Cramer (R)
AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Braun (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Rosen (D)
WV: Manchin (D)
TN: Bredesen (D)

Election 2018 Winners:

Andrew Gillum
Kristi Noem
WSJ + NYT + WaPo
Whole Foods
Suburbs
Women
Beto O'Rourke
Mitt Romney
Oprah Winfrey 

Election 2018 Losers:

Donald J. Trump
Team Trump
CNN + Fox News + MSNBC
NRA + Guns
Rural Towns
White Dudes
Ron DeSantis
Kris Kobach
Stephen Bannon

—Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in thought leader communications and events for senior executives working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Memo: A strong economy and a mandate

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Memo: Media Tendencies + Trends: US-China Commercial Relations

October 26, 2018

A strong economy and a mandate

Americans' view of the current economic conditions and the economy's trajectory have not been this upbeat since 2000.

Jeffrey Jones at Gallup reports: "Currently, 54% of Americans rate economic conditions as "excellent" or "good," and just 12% as "poor." Also, by 57% to 34%, more Americans say the economy is getting better than say it is getting worse."

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index now scores the American economy at a +33.

The last time the index was at this level was January 2004 and has not been higher since November 2000 (+39) which was at the end of the dot-com mega boom.

Gallup's October 1-10 poll finds similarly positive ratings of the American job market.

Sixty-eight percent of US adults report it is an excellent time to find a quality job, tying July's measure as the highest in Gallup's trend dating back to August 2001.

Ten years after the Great Recession rocked the US, Americans' confidence in the economy has returned to levels not surpassed since the dot-com boom, according to Gallup.

President Trump and his Republican allies on Capitol Hill hope the strong economy will help the party hold onto its power in the midterm elections as well as give it the necessary space to engage China in this current trade spat.

This robust American economy is giving more credence to those thinkers and policymakers who believe now is the time for America to more aggressively push back on China's bad practices in the business world and recast commercial rules that have governed the globe since the World War II.

J. Michael Cole, writing in The National Interest, opines: "The Indo-Pacific region is on the frontline of the greatest challenge to the international liberal order since the 1930s.

"For decades, the assumption which most influenced China policy had been that integration of China through the WTO, and a permissive attitude to its misbehavior domestically and abroad, would eventually lead to the creation of a China that was more “like us”—more palatable, somewhat liberal, if perhaps not entirely democratic. In other words, a responsible stakeholder that accepted international norms. Thanks largely to Xi Jinping, such notions have been buried, and it is very hard today to find anyone who can reasonably argue that China remains on the right track and that we, therefore, should continue to give it the space it wants."

As Trump enters the second half of his first presidential term, regardless of the midterm election outcome, he may feel he has the proper economic performance indicators to reset the international order that protects America for the next generation.

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., writing in the Wall Street Journal, suggests: "The administration needs a mandate to rip up the relationship with Beijing. Business leaders who expect the China trade dispute to end the way the Mexican and Canadian disputes did had better wake up. It won’t be over soon."

A strong economy, coupled with increased sales, and growing revenues can shelter many subpar policies. Expect the Trump administration to lay to the American voters how extensively it plans to reshape the massively essential and highly interconnected US-China economic relationship soon - possibly before November's G20 meeting in Argentina.

Jenkins, Jr goes on: "If the Trump boom has proved anything... it’s proved that American prosperity is still made at home. A better answer to China’s perverse ambitions would be to focus on renewing our own economic dynamism, building up our military and alliances, dealing with the fiscal challenge of our welfare state. These priorities are likely to guarantee American success in the coming century."

Articles to read:

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.: Let’s vote on a China cold war https://on.wsj.com/2Rcxkmu

J. Michael Cole: The true 'Pivot to Asia' is here http://bit.ly/2OKXC2d

Brexit, Election 2018, ‘Law of the Jungle’, Amazon, Uber, Imposter Syndrome

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Brexit, Election 2018, ‘Law of the Jungle’, Amazon, Uber, Imposter Syndrome

Marc Ross Daily
November 5, 2018
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics

What's a Caracal? 
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TOP FIVE

✔️ Second Brexit vote?

✔️ Xi stands his ground against ‘law of the jungle’ trade policies

✔️ Most expensive midterm campaign in US history

✔️ Amazon in ‘advanced talks’ to build new HQ near....

✔️ Uber has launched a membership program

ROSS RANT

One way to fight imposter syndrome - learn from experts outside your specialization


Do I really know what I am talking about?

Why should this CEO listen to me?

Am I giving this candidate for office the best counsel?

The dreaded imposter syndrome.

It creeps in from time to time.

Read more here: http://bit.ly/2P8SRQg
 

GEOECONOMICS

Brexit: Bankers, traders, and money managers are worried about the City’s future as the financial gateway to Europe. They should be as Paris, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam take on more financial services.

Second Brexit vote: The pressure for a "people's vote" on Brexit is growing. More than 70 business leaders called for such a vote on the weekend, followed by a similar call from over 1,500 of the country's top lawyers. 

Xi stands his ground: At the highly anticipated opening speech at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Xi hit back against Trump’s “America First” policies with some of his most pointed language yet, denouncing “law of the jungle” and “beggar-thy-neighbor” trade practices. At the same time, Xi didn’t outline any new proposals that would suggest he was prepared to meet Trump’s demands, such as halting forced technology transfers or rolling back support for state-owned enterprises. 

Enjoy the ride and plan accordingly.

Trending: ‘law of the jungle’ trade policies


WP - Editorial: The US must take action to stop Chinese industrial espionage

New Caledonia
: Although voters in New Caledonia rejected leaving France in a referendum on Sunday, leaders of the South Pacific archipelago’s independence movement were left buoyed by the result, which was closer than expected - 56 percent of voters chose to remain under French rule, with turnout high at 81 percent.

BRIGADOON PROFESSIONAL

Brigadoon Professional is a platform with the tools to help you upgrade your competitive advantage in the fast-changing global business environment.

Brigadoon Professional provides resources, education, and experiences to drive new connections that will help you succeed and reach your full potential.

Learn more @ http://thebrigadoon.com/professional

AMERICAN POLITICS

Election 2018 is the most expensive midterm campaign in US history: I don't see campaigns getting cheaper anytime soon. By the time midterms are through, candidates will have spent a combined $5.2 billion.

Fortune 500 company-affiliated PACs and employees have given more than $180 million to congressional candidates this cycle.

The tech sector spent 75% of its $17.7 million on Democrat campaigns.


Trump referendum: The midterm elections are a referendum on Trump’s divisive persona, hardline policies, and pugnacious politics. Many main street GOPers are voting Dem for the first time on Tuesday.

Trump on the campaign trail: He has claimed without evidence that Dems want to destroy the economy, obliterate Medicare, and open the borders to violent criminals. He is president just not a president.

Trump in Ohio today: He'll be in The Land for a 3 pm campaign rally with the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine.

Donald Trump Jr.: He has been an active campaigner for Republicans this year and has not ruled out a campaign of his own.

Who makes up the GOP base: Find a loyal Trump supporter and you’re looking at a voter who will stick with Republican candidates through hell and high water.

Michael Bloomberg: A 2020 presidential campaign, took another step closer to that possibility with a final-push $5 million national advertising effort to encourage voters to support Dems.

San Francisco homeless tax splits leaders: Voters to decide at US midterms on ‘Prop C’ levy to tackle increasingly ‘visible’ problem.

El Chapo is set to begin trial today in federal court in Brooklyn.

Antitrust in America: Trump said his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against Amazon, Google, and Facebook.

ENTERPRISE

Amazon in ‘advanced talks’ to build new HQ near DC: The company is seriously considering an area known as Crystal City. It’s a large residential and office complex in Arlington, Virginia, just south of Washington, has an urban feel, numerous government offices, and a ready-to-go campus with empty, older office space that Amazon could use.

Amazon’s decision, which may be announced in November, could include multiple locations involving smaller sites.

WSJ reporting the company is speaking with a small handful of communities including northern Virginia’s Crystal City, Dallas, and New York City.

Amazon's director of economic development lashed out on Twitter at whoever leaked to The Post, writing, "stop treating the NDA you signed like a used napkin."

It's all about the business model: Many executives believe that business model innovation is even more important to their company’s success than product or service innovation.

Uber looks to rebuild goodwill with regulators.

Uber has launched a membership program in LA, Austin, Denver, Miami and Orlando that gives fixed prices to subscribers, rather than putting them at the mercy of surge pricing.

OTD: In 2007 the Android mobile operating system was unveiled by Google.

Cannabis superstore: Opening in Las Vegas, the Planet 13 Superstore has 16,500 square feet of cannabis retail space and has 42 registers to handle the 2,000+ expected visitors each day.

Swag is a $24 billion dollar industry in the United States.

TRENDS + BUZZ

Do you want fries with that? Senior citizens are replacing teenagers at fast-food restaurants.

CULTURE

Eleven Madison Park is opening a seasonal, pop-up outpost in Aspen.

SPORT

Politics and the pitch: Xherdan Shaqiri has been left out of Liverpool's traveling squad for Tuesday's Champions League match against Red Star Belgrade. The midfielder was at the center of controversy along with Switzerland teammate Granit Xhaka when they celebrated goals with a pro-Kosovo "double eagle" gesture that represents the Albanian flag during the World Cup win over Serbia in Russia.

A lap of Britain: Ross Edgley became the first swimmer to circumnavigate Great Britain. He completed 1,791 miles over five months and swam up to 12 hours a day.