Caracal Insider Daily | January 25, 2018

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Macron, Merkel, May, Trump, Davos, Alibaba + Kroger, Churchill, Beckham

Caracal Insider Daily
January 25, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

What's a Caracal? https://goo.gl/wDfPU6

TOP FIVE

✔️ Macron leads France back into diplomatic limelight

✔️ Europe is back. And rejecting Trumpism

✔️ Trump out to show Davos elite he knows best

✔️ Alibaba and Kroger discuss partnership

✔️ The wardrobe of Winston Churchill

GEOECONOMICS

Macron leads France back into the diplomatic limelight: Spiegel reports, his seemingly never-ending handshake with Trump may have attracted the most attention. But beyond the headlines, French President Emmanuel Macron is changing his country's role in the world.

"France is back." -- French President Emmanuel Macron @ Davos

CNBC: France's Macron says globalization is going through a major crisis

Germany: Angela Merkel would lead a six-month minority government before calling new elections under contingency plans being drawn up by senior conservatives on the eve of coalition talks.

Europe is back. And rejecting Trumpism: NYT reports, Macron’s hourlong speech before the annual gathering of the world’s wealthy and powerful in the Swiss Alps came on the same day that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni issued their own forceful speeches toward advancing European integration while defending the notion of international cooperation.

Switzerland embraces cryptocurrency culture: FT reports, the alpine country emerges as global hub for initial coin offerings.

90% of growth will be outside the EU, and Brexit means Britain can benefit
The Times - Liam Fox

Ross says US won’t be a ‘sucker’ on trade: FT reports, US commerce secretary pushes panelists to ‘name a less protectionist country.’

US warns it will step up trade measures in 2018: FT reports, Mnuchin and Ross defend Trump administration against charges of protectionism.

WP: Trump will tell globalists at Davos that his nationalist agenda is working

Bloomberg: Trump out to show Davos elite he knows best


The buffoon presidency? Davos elites learn to live with Trump: Politico reports, the president will arrive in Switzerland to find global business leaders ready to welcome him — or at least to say he hasn’t been as bad as they thought he'd be.

Look for DJT to boast about US economic performance during his first year in office — unemployment down, the stock market up, robust growth, and tax reform. 

Tomorrow: Trump will speak with CNBC live at 6:00 am ET and will give his formal speech to Davos starting at 8:00 am ET time.

US destroyer tracking Russian spy ship off US coast: Navy Times reports, the US Navy is currently tracking a Russian spy ship spotted off the coast of North Carolina.

WSJ: US Commerce Secretary slams Beijing for protectionist actions under free-trade rhetoric

Sino FDI: China hauled in $144 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year — it’s most ever.

“I think globalization cannot be stopped. Nobody can stop globalization. Nobody can stop trade. And I believe, if trade stops, war starts.” -- Jack Ma of Alibaba @ Davos

Today: US-China Economy and Security Review Commission hearing on China Belt and Road Initiative at 9:45 am ET.

Reuters: Mexico’s drug cartels, now hooked on fuel, cripple the country’s refineries

Outspoken World Bank chief economist Paul Romer exits: FT reports, emails reveal clashes over issues ranging from grammar to methodology.

AMERICAN POLITICS

NYT: Trump says he is willing to speak under oath to Mueller

Mueller moving quickly: Bloomberg reports, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller is moving faster than expected and appears to be wrapping up at least one key part of his investigation — whether Trump obstructed justice. 

Sessions interviewed in Russia probe: The Hill reports, Attorney General Jeff Sessions was interviewed last week by special counsel Robert Mueller’s team as part of the Justice Department's investigation into Russian election meddling. 

Trump administration backs bills to toughen foreign investment rules: Reuters reports, the Trump administration supports bipartisan bills in Congress to toughen U.S. foreign investment rules amid growing concern about Chinese efforts to buy U.S. high-tech companies, the White House said in a statement on Wednesday. The legislation would broaden the government's power to stop foreign purchases of US firms by strengthening the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

AP:Kushners drop much-criticized effort to raise Chinese cash

Duckworth to be first sitting US senator to give birth: AP reports, Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth is pregnant with her second child. She will be the first U.S. senator to give birth while in office. 

California dreaming: For Democrats to flip the House this year, they’ll have to take some key seats in California.

ENTERPRISE

Walmart applies for 3D image patent for online grocery: BI reports, Walmart recently applied for a patent for a system that allows customers to preview food items selected for their online orders through pictures, according to CB Insights. The system, which is referred to as a “Fresh Online Experience” in the patent, would use 3D scanning to show online shoppers in-store items.

Alibaba and Kroger have had preliminary discussions about a partnership, apparently in a response to Amazon’s grocery moves. 

WP: Will millennials kill Costco? https://goo.gl/pSq16v

CNBC: Nine West could be the next retailer to file for bankruptcy

Reuters: Qualcomm signs $2 billion sales MOUs with Lenovo, Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO

The EU fines Qualcomm $1.2 billion for anti-competitive practices.

GoDaddy has acquired Main Street Hub, a provider of social media marketing tools, for $125 million.

TechCrunch: Uber CEO hopes to have self-driving cars in service in 18 months

The next version of Apple's iPhone software will let people view their health records.

NBC: Tourism to US under Trump is down, costing $4.6 billion and 40,000 jobs

TRENDS

‘Never get high on your own supply’ – why social media bosses don’t use social media: Guardian reports, Developers of platforms such as Facebook have admitted that they were designed to be addictive. Should we be following the executives’ example and going cold turkey – and is it even possible for mere mortals? https://goo.gl/eTwggX

CULTURE

The wardrobe of Winston Churchill: The Rake reports, with the recent release of Darkest Hour, we examine Winston Churchill’s style and how it was recreated through the film’s authentic touches. https://goo.gl/xGPtxh

Elton John has announced his retirement from touring with a tour that will last for three years. 

SPORT

Beckham plans to unveil Miami MLS team on Monday: AP reports, Beckham and his partners are planning a Monday event to formally announce Miami’s new MLS team, as well as its name and logo, a person with direct knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press. A spokesman for Beckham did not immediately respond to a request for comment. His group has said it wants the new team to begin play in the 2020 season.

Caracal Insider Daily | January 24, 2017

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Davos, TPP, USD, Border Wall, Macron, May, Musk, Toys ‘R’ Us

Caracal Insider Daily
January 24, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Trump administration prepares for raft of trade decisions

✔️ The USD has slipped to the lowest level in three years

✔️ Trans-Pacific trade deal to go ahead without US

✔️ Border wall ‘off the table’ 

✔️ Macron invited to White House for Trump's first state visit

ROSS RANT

CGTN interview and a preview of Trump’s visit to World Economic Forum: Yesterday was the first day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. This year’s slogan is “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World.” I discuss the US’ changing trade policy, and Trump's highly anticipated speech. 
CGTN
 

GEOECONOMICS

Ross says US is in a trade war, in a rhetorical split with Trump: Bloomberg reports, rade wars "are fought every single day," and the U.S. has been engaged in one "for quite a little while," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in comments that diverge from President Donald Trump. "The difference is the U.S. troops are now coming to the rampart," Ross told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

I guess he woke-up from his nap.

Trump tariffs spark criticism, raise tensions over trade: WSJ reports, eleven Pacific Rim nations forge a new trade bloc without the US and Europe moves to shore up other ties as Washington takes a tougher approach.

Trump administration prepares for raft of trade decisions: Reuters reports, the Trump administration is set to announce a raft of trade decisions over the next months, ranging from curbs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum to steps to clamp down on China's alleged theft of intellectual property. Trump has stressed his "America First" agenda in his first year in office and called for fairer, more reciprocal trade. He has blamed globalization for ravaging American manufacturing jobs as companies sought to reduce labor costs by relocating to Mexico and elsewhere.

The USD has slipped to the lowest level in three years.

Trans-Pacific trade deal to go ahead without US: FT reports, Pacific Rim nations including Japan and Canada aim to sign a comprehensive pact in March.

Meet the new leaders on global trade: Abandoned by the US, the 11 countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact are going ahead anyway. Bloomberg - Editorial

Bloomberg: China will surprise world with reforms in 2018, Xi adviser says

He is correct. It will be a surprise. 

China orders state-run companies to make profits: Bloomberg reports, China has taken the unusual step of ordering its biggest state-owned enterprises to earn profits this year as the government increases its scrutiny of bloated businesses, according to people familiar with the matter. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission told senior executives on Jan. 15 about the edict, which will apply to all of the nation’s 98 central SOEs.

The market usually makes this decision.

The Harvard-educated ‘brain’ behind China’s economic transformation: Bloomberg reports, when  Liu He takes to the lectern in Davos on Wednesday, the Harvard-educated technocrat will move further into the spotlight that’s been aimed at him since his elevation to China’s top political body last year.  A key adviser to President Xi Jinping, Liu is China’s representative to the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting this week. The visit -- which culminates in a speech to the gathering today -- is likely to be the first of many high-profile appearances by the 65-year-old Cultural Revolution survivor, who’s on track to become Xi’s key lieutenant on China’s economy and financial system.

Venezuela will hold presidential elections before the end of April as President Nicolas Maduro looks to consolidate power amid a major economic crisis.

Brazil court holds key to Lula comeback: FT reports, former president’s election hopes could be dashed if corruption conviction is upheld.

Inside the dysfunctional relationship of Donald Trump and Theresa May: Bloomberg reports, forget closer transatlantic ties and a state visit to London, it’s been a year of public clashes. https://goo.gl/Q994hZ

AMERICAN POLITICS

Questions for the president: Bloomberg reports, Special Counsel Robert Mueller wants to grill Trump about his decision to fire former FBI Director James Comey and remove Michael Flynn as national security adviser. 

The Fed: The Senate confirmed Jerome Powell to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by an 84-13 vote. 

NYT: Border wall ‘off the table,’ Schumer says, as immigration progress unravels

CBS: Emmanuel Macron invited to White House for first state visit of Trump administration

In Davos, a club Trump has revered and resented finally opens its doors: NYT reports, by any measure, he made a lot of money, the kid from Queens, maybe not as much as he boasted, but a fortune. And yet the chip on his shoulder was at least as big as his bank account. Never accepted, never respected, he remained on the outside pressing his nose against the window of the club of elites he both revered and resented. So when Trump arrives in this snowy, mountaintop resort where financial titans mingle with heads of state in an annual saturnalia of capitalism, it may feel like a moment of vindication. Never invited when he was merely a businessman, Trump will arrive on Thursday as leader of the world’s last superpower, commanding attention if not admiration. Whatever else, he cannot be ignored now.

WEF road trip: Trump is set to leave tonight at 8:30 pm ET for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 

Trump and May are due to meet in Davos tomorrow.

WP: Google for the first time outspent every other company to influence Washington in 2017

ENTERPRISE

WSJ: Toys ‘R’ Us plans to close about 180 US stores this year

Price war pressures consumer-goods giants: WSJ reports, Procter & Gamble said average prices fell for the first time since 2011; rival Kimberly-Clark to slash jobs.

Elon Musk has agreed to work free for 10 years in exchange for a bonus of £40bn if he can turn Tesla into a $650bn company.

TRENDS

Blockchain can no longer be ignored: Technology that powers cryptocurrencies have weathered a storm of opposition. https://goo.gl/yMt4Vt

Why quitting smartphones is the new quitting smoking: We need real rules to nudge people away from addiction to their devices. https://goo.gl/2Ethct

CULTURE

Oscars 2018: The complete list of nominees https://goo.gl/Vyhrjx

Oscars 2018: Here are 538's early predictions https://goo.gl/nMwtwZ

Fashion topics get a spot on the Davos agenda: NYT reports,  amid discussions on climate change and populism, the rise of robots and the booming global economy, will be a number of talks, papers, and presentations from power players in — fashion. “We recognized the economic, social and environmental role of an industry that can sometimes appear trivial,” said Cristiana Falcone-Sorrell, senior adviser to Klaus Schwab, the forum’s chairman. Celebrities have often added some sparkle to the mix (Cate Blanchett and Elton John will be in town this year to accept awards for their service to philanthropy), and luxury brand chief executives have been in the audience, but the fashion industry has never before had such a strong foothold in the agenda.

Virtual pistes: The US ski team has trained inside VR for the Winter Olympics.

Gen Z punts on the NFL: AdAge reports, more teens, and youth are turning to streaming and e-gaming over watching football on TV -- or playing it.

Caracal Insider Daily | January 23, 2018

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Davos, IMF, Post-engagement, Vermont, Netflix

Caracal Insider Daily
January 23, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Caracal Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ The Davos elite is worried

✔️ IMF hails ‘broadest’ upsurge in global growth since 2010

✔️ A post-engagement US-China relationship?

✔️ Vermont becomes ninth US state to legalize marijuana

✔️ Netflix is now worth more than $100 billion

GEOECONOMICS

Bloomberg: The global economy is doing just fine, but the Davos elite is worried https://goo.gl/KBfdxD

"China, debt, protectionism, Trump all seen as threats to growth"

IMF hails ‘broadest’ upsurge in global growth since 2010: FT reports, forecasts upgraded for 2017, 2018 and 2019, adding to positive mood ahead of Davos gathering.

FT: Trump and trade: White House briefing notes https://goo.gl/mzLVKB

"2018 is going to be largely about China"

Trump’s speech to set the tone at Davos party: US president’s planned address may prove a turning point for the global elite.
FT - Gideon Rachman

Nationalism vs. globalism: A question of balance: WSJ reports, Klaus Schwab, executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, on how to deal with a fractured world. https://goo.gl/ZPqucU

China's top paper says US forcing China to accelerate South China Sea deployments: Reuters reports, China’s top newspaper, decrying Washington as a trouble-maker, said on Monday U.S. moves in the South China Sea like last week’s freedom of navigation operation will only cause China to strengthen its deployments in the disputed waterway. 

Third carrier may use electromagnetic launch catapults: Asia Times reports, China will use one or more electromagnetic catapults for fighter jets on its third aircraft carrier, the Beijing-based Global Times has revealed, citing an anonymous expert within the military. 

A post-engagement US-China relationship?
Rhodium Group

"Engagement, embracing China’s WTO accession and optimism were absolutely the right US strategy for the post-1978 China that risked everything to shift away from Communism; but unless Beijing demonstrates recommitment to that course now Washington and others will go a different way."

The Philippines says it won't be embroiled in US-China sea spat: Stars & Stripes reports, The Philippines said Sunday that it won't get embroiled in a fresh spat between the U.S. and China involving Beijing's protest of an American warship passing near a Chinese-controlled shoal also claimed by the Philippines. 

US sets new trade tariffs, signaling new phase in ‘America First’ policy: WSJ report, the Trump administration announced Monday new trade barriers aimed at protecting domestic makers of solar panels and washing machines from a recent surge of cheap imports.

NAFTA's fate uncertain ahead of Montreal round of talks: Reuters reports, the NAFTA trade agreement's future hangs in the balance this week as negotiators from the United States, Canada, and Mexico try to settle major differences over revamping a pact that President Donald Trump has threatened to abandon.

The UK’s choice on Brexit: Should it be Norway or Canada?WSJ reports, the two models presented by the EU imply sticking to EU laws and rules or facing more-restricted trade. The British are seeking some middle ground.

AMERICAN POLITICS

WSJ: Congress passes three-week spending bill to end government shutdown

NYT: Bill to end shutdown is sent to Trump

WP: Congress passes spending bill, clearing way to end shutdown

LAT: Congress agrees to reopen government with push from unusual bipartisan caucus


"The deal was hammered out by a gang of 30 or so senators calling themselves the Common Sense Caucus."

Pennsylvania court orders new election map for its 18 House seats in a boost for Democrats: LAT reports, the court strikes down the state's congressional map, which was drawn to give Republicans a 13-5 majority.

Election 2018: Generic ballot: Democrat: 45% ... Republican: 41% ... Undecided: 14%.

Bloomberg: Trump's first year in 14 metrics https://goo.gl/1dBSsJ

Reuters: Vermont becomes ninth US state to legalize marijuana

ENTERPRISE

US and Chinese companies race to dominate AI: WSJ reports, Chinese rivals are gaining fast because of rising investment, as well as freer access to enormous amounts of data about people.

Bacardi is acquiring the maker of Patrón tequila in a deal that values the premium brand at $5.1 billion.

Recode: Netflix added another 8.3 million subscribers in a ‘beautiful’ Q4

Netflix is now worth more than $100 billion.

WP: Maryland governor proposes $5 billion in tax breaks, transportation upgrades to lure Amazon

TRENDS

The best Twitter brand campaigns of 2017 and why they worked: Campaign reports, Twitter reveals insights from the best social campaigns in 2017 and finds they included three key components: video, live and simple creativity.