“I want the Chinese model. Because what they have done is incredible."
Marc Ross Daily
July 27, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Marc Ross Daily = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits
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TOP FIVE
✔️ A majority of UK voters now back holding a second referendum
✔️ Former cricket star claims victory in Pakistan election
✔️ China’s suffocation of Qualcomm deal signals new era
✔️ Trump intervenes to save the House
✔️ Grubhub it has agreed to buy LevelUp
GEOECONOMICS
As a British EU negotiator, I can tell you that Brexit is going to be far worse than anyone could have guessed: Steve Bullock writes, the Government keeps saying it ‘didn’t realise’ the problems, but they had the experts at Whitehall – they just refused to listen to them. Now we’re facing a breakdown in airline safety, medicine, animal welfare, security, international aid and so much more. https://ind.pn/2LBjfjt
Will there be another vote? Polling by YouGov for The Times shows that, for the first time, a majority of UK voters back holding a second referendum.
Venezuela to lop five zeros off its currency: FT reports, Maduro anchors bolívar to a cryptocurrency and transfers oil reserves to central bank.
Bloomberg: Canada cuts US, China out of talks on reforming global trade
Goal is to improve the WTO and avoid a broader systemic crisis.
India set to establish 18 new embassies in Africa.
Former cricket star claims victory in Pakistan election: WSJ reports, former sports star Imran Khan claimed victory in a sharply disputed election in Pakistan, upending the political landscape in a fragile democracy. His claim came with the country’s election commission still to announce final results, and amid accusations of irregularities and fraud.
Imran Khan poised to become Pakistan’s next prime minister: NYT reports, the charismatic cricket star and bitter critic of the US war on terrorism is on the cusp of becoming the leader of the nuclear-armed nation.
“I want the Chinese model. Because what they have done is incredible. The way they have hit poverty, it has never happened in history.” -- Imran Khan, Pakistan’s newly elected prime minister
Beijing Consensus vs. Washington Consensus
Report: China, Russia, and Iran ramp up economic spying on US http://bit.ly/2uTFEPc
Nikkei: Shanghai boils with aspirations of replacing Li Keqiang
Chinese politicians not named Xi Jinping or Wang Qishan jockey for 2023
Just like the US, China has factions, special interests, blue states, red states, you know, politics
China seeks economic boost as trade spat grows: WSJ reports, China is moving faster than expected to inject money into the economy, a sign that the government is becoming more worried about slowing growth as trade tensions are on the rise.
Reuters: China eyes infrastructure boost to cushion growth as trade war escalates - sources
Fixed-asset spending is back baby!
Caixin: Liu He to steer state-owned enterprise reform
"Vice Premier Liu He has been tapped to lead a special work group charged with overseeing state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, the State Council said on Thursday."
FT: China’s suffocation of Qualcomm deal signals new era
Rebuff to US semiconductor company seen as collateral damage of trade tension.
Qualcomm not the last victim as US-China trade war intensifies: Nikkei reports, deals by United Technologies, Disney and Carlyle still await Beijing's approval.
China’s belt-and-road plans are to be welcomed—and worried about: The Economist reports, the “project of the century” may help some economies, but at a political cost. One cause of confusion is that the BRI is not a single plan at all. A visitor to its website would click in vain to find a detailed explanation of its aims. There is no blueprint of the kind that China’s leaders love: so many billions of dollars to be spent, so many kilometers of track to be laid or so much new port capacity to be built by such-and-such a date. https://econ.st/2NOQTQ9
Xi Jinping’s superpower plans: As the US retreats, Beijing is talking more boldly about how it wants to change the global order and assert its own values and interests. Xi Jinping has proclaimed that China has both the intent and the capability to reshape the international order. Yet much of what passes for Chinese global leadership to date is simply the pursuit of China’s own narrow interests. He has yet to demonstrate the key attributes of true global leadership: the willingness to align and in some cases subordinate Beijing’s immediate interests to the greater global good, and the ability to forge a significant agreement around a global challenge. WSJ - Elizabeth Economy OpEd
AMERICAN POLITICS
US GDP: Economists across Wall Street expect the second quarter growth number, out Friday at 8:30 am, to be a blockbuster.
A flurry of action by businesses moving to get ahead of the tariffs flying between the United States and its trading partners accounts for a significant portion of the uptick.
@CNBCnow: BREAKING: Second-quarter GDP comes in at 4.1%, as expected
Cohen says Trump knew: Michael Cohen is prepared to tell Special Counsel Robert Mueller that then-candidate Donald Trump approved a 2016 meeting of his son and campaign officials with Russians.
CNN: Cohen claims Trump knew in advance of 2016 Trump Tower meeting
NYT: Mueller looking at Trump tweets inobstructioninvestigation
Trump has used Twitter as his go-to public relations weapon, even after advisers warned he could be creating legal problems for himself.
How often Trump has tweeted "witch hunt":
May 2017: 3 times
June 2017: 5 times
July 2017: 6 times
Oct 2017: 1 time
Dec 2017: 2 times
Jan 2018: 1 time
Feb 2018: 3 times
March 2018: 2 times
April 2018: 9 times
May 2018: 20 times
June 2018: 26 times
July 2018: 15 times
AFP: Touting EU deal, Trump claims Europe now 'open' to US farmers
@jimsciutto: New: Bipartisan group of Senators introduce bill to prohibit Trump from withdrawing from @NATO. Intro'd by Republicans @SenJohnMcCain & @CoryGardner & Dems @timkaine & @SenJackReed bill requires "advice and consent of the Senate to modify or terminate U.S. membership"
Politico: Trump intervenes to save the House
Trump "has signed off on plans for his reelection campaign to funnel contributions to 100 Republican candidates running in House and Senate races
Trump moves to punt three political problems until after the midterms: WP reports, responding to pleas from top Republican lawmakers, President Trump appeared willing to temporarily back off on his top priorities on trade, Russia, and border wall funding as the party fights to retain its majorities in Congress.
Karl Rove: Sobering news for the House GOPhttps://on.wsj.com/2uRwuTA
Republicans have to reach beyond Trump’s base to prevent a Speaker Pelosi sequel.
Election 2018 House: "With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930." -- Dave Wasserman, Cook Political Report
House GOP leadership: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) declares candidacy for House Speaker challenging Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Why Rep. Jim Jordan is surviving, and thriving, despite Ohio State sexual abuse scrutiny: WP reports, the Republican from Ohio, who has been accused by former wrestlers of knowing about sexual harassment on the team and not acting on it, is running for speaker of the House. It helps that he's a powerful man with leverage in Congress.
US House passes defense bill targeting Chinese investments: Reuters reports, the US House of Representatives on Thursday passed a $716 billion defense authorization bill that aims to rein in China’s investments in the United States and prohibits the US government from using technology from major Chinese telecommunications firms.
US Senate quietly votes to cut tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods: CNBC reports, with no debate, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and roughly 1,660 other items made outside the United States. Nearly half of those items are produced in China.
So Congress wants access to cheaply assembled goods from China but doesn't want to sell the good stuff to China.
WP: Almost all shoes sold in the US are imported. Now the industry is terrified of tariffs.
ENTERPRISE
Fiat Chrysler chief was seriously ill for more than a year: WSJ reports, Fiat Chrysler said it knew nothing about the medical condition of former CEO Sergio Marchionne, who died this week after being seriously ill for more than a year, during which time he received recurring treatment at a Swiss hospital.
Amazon continued its streak of profitability, easily topping $1 billion for the third straight quarter.
WP: Facebook suffers largest value drop in Wall Street history
The cost of Facebook's privacy missteps caught up with the social media giant this week, sending its stock down as much as 20 percent today, a loss of more than $100 billion in value.
Facebook shares tumbled after the social-media company warned that its growth is slowing.
Gucci's profit soars on surging demand for luxury fashion.
Daimler warned that earnings would be hit by US tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Chinese e-commerce startup Pinduoduo earned a nearly $24 billion market valuation in an IPO in New York.
FT: WeWork China unit value hits $5bn after fundraising
Atlassian is selling its corporate chat software HipChat to rival Slack.
The Detroit Auto Show is moving to the summer starting in 2020.
Grubhub it has agreed to buy LevelUp, which makes technology to support restaurant payment and loyalty programs.
BP is spending $10.5 billion to buy shale assets in the US from Australia's BHP Billiton.
Brookstone is expected to file for bankruptcy by the end of the month and close most of its locations. The company — essentially “what if Skymall got into a better college” — has 140 US stores, 36 of which are in airports and five of which are in the Atlanta airport alone.
TRENDS
A 4-day work week? A test run shows a surprising resulthttps://nyti.ms/2LE875e
The firm, Perpetual Guardian, which manages trusts, wills andestates, found the change actually boosted productivity among its 240 employees, who said they spent more time with their families, exercising, cooking, and working in their gardens.
Robotics for manufacturing, warehouses, maintenance, etc. is estimated to be a $105 billion market by 2025, according to CB Insights.
Much of the growth is being driven by ”cobots,” or collaborative robots that can work alongside humans.
Some examples of cobot use:
- Banking: Cobots are being used to count and sort banknotes, which is an area that has long been sensitive to human error.
- Auto: They are being used to vacuum out cars at the end of the assembly process.
- Retail/hospitality: They are flipping burgers in robotic restaurants and sorting items at distribution centers for large apparel brands.
- Cosmetics: Cobots are allowing for more personalized products produced in smaller factories at L’Oreal.
QOTD: “To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment.” -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
CULTURE
Today: In honor of Krispy Kreme's 81st birthday, if you buy a dozen doughnuts at Krispy Kreme today, you can get another dozen doughnuts for $1.
FT: Pyjamas, pilates pants or pinstripes? A guide to out-of-office style https://on.ft.com/2LE3nfW
As our desks become more mobile, our working wardrobe is changing as well. So, what does the domestic professional wear?
‘Man in a hole’: Scientists unlock formula for box office success: Films with a “man in a hole” narrative arc in which the lead character suffers a fall before recovering enjoy most success at the box office, according to a new analysis. British academics analysed 6,147 scripts to establish that most films fit one of six emotional journeys. These include “rags to riches” such as The Shawshank Redemption, “riches to rags” such as Psycho, and “rise followed by a fall” Icarus-style plots, such as Mary Poppins. The highest box offices takings tend to be associated with the “man in a hole” shape of movie (a fall followed by a rise), irrespective of genre and production budget. Successful examples of this plot structure include The Godfather. http://bit.ly/2uTvJZZ
Photos: 30 years ago: A look back at 1988 http://bit.ly/2uSTFwF
Is there too much techno in Ibiza? http://bit.ly/2LDhQIX
13 unusual things you should always pack when travelinghttps://cnet.co/2LHJl49
Smithsonian exhibit argues the American Revolution was a much wider conflict than you learned in schoolhttps://wapo.st/2uRwFOI
PODCAST
Brian Koppelman speaks with Seth Godin http://bit.ly/2LF0prA
COTD | SOTD
Alexander Popov - Siberia http://bit.ly/2uUVEjX
SPORT
TdF: Geraint Thomas moved a step closer to becoming Wales's first Tour champion when he came through the 18th stage to Pau unhindered and with his lead of 1min 59sec on Dutchman Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) intact.
CR7 @ Juve: Cristiano Ronaldo will kick his first ball in Serie A at Chievo on the weekend of August 18/19 when new club Juventus begin their bid for a record eighth straight league title.
The Nationals must think about the unthinkable: Trading Bryce Harper: WP reports, with their playoff chances fading, Washington may be a seller at the trade deadline — and that means it must contemplate a deal to trade its star outfielder if the price is right.
Want some winter? Behind the scenes of Warren Miller's new "Face of Winter" film - watch here http://bit.ly/2uS9DH9 and here http://bit.ly/2uT3DhE.
Overwatch League championship: The London Spitfire will play the Philadelphia Fusion for the inaugural prize.
