Marc Ross Daily | April 10
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's trade war: Creating chaos + Claiming victory
In a bewildering display of global economic management, Team Trump has once again employed its signature strategy: create a crisis, partially resolve it, and then declare an unprecedented victory.
The recent trade chaos, which Team Trump will undoubtedly declare "The Art of the Deal," reveals an unprecedented pattern of governance emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue through manufactured chaos.
After threatening massive tariffs that sent global markets into a nosedive, Team Trump has now pulled back on some measures while maintaining others—then declared this retreat a masterful negotiation.
The reality is far more concerning.
The economic costs of this approach have been substantial. The administration triggered a cascade of market disruptions by abruptly announcing sweeping tariffs against virtually all major trading partners simultaneously. American companies found themselves scrambling to adjust supply chains built over decades. Construction projects faced sudden cost increases. Restaurants like Cava began calculating how tariffs on everything from Canadian paper bowls to Greek olive oil would affect their bottom line.
"It's like going to a restaurant where the menu keeps changing before you order," Brett Schulman, Cava's CEO, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal. "No one feels confident making a decision."
This uncertainty is what businesses fear most—it paralyzes investment, delays expansion, and ultimately costs jobs.
Even with the partial pullback, the United States has positioned itself as an outlier in global trade policy. As economist Jason Furman points out, "We are now at a 24 percent average tariff rate, making the US the highest tariff country in the world—leapfrogging pikers such as Iran and Venezuela with average rates of 12 and 14 percent, respectively."
Heavy-handed tariffs like this are unprecedented territory for an advanced economy. No other nation with our level of prosperity maintains such protectionist barriers.
Team Trump's approach defies conventional economic wisdom across the political spectrum. No coherent school of thought—whether from conservative free-market proponents or progressive economists—supports simultaneously antagonizing every major trading partner.
As Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times aptly described, the White House has "taken an axe to the supply chains of many of the world's leading multinationals."
What's particularly troubling about this approach is that it likely won't achieve its stated goals. Trade deficits—Trump's obsession—typically reflect macroeconomic factors like savings and investment rates rather than trade barriers. The most probable outcome is not a manufacturing renaissance but higher prices for American consumers and businesses.
Consider your Mediterranean lunch bowl at Cava. When import taxes hit olive oil, feta, and tahini, restaurants must pass those costs to customers. Team Trump touts these tariffs as "protecting American jobs," but the reality is more expensive meals, furniture, and appliances.
Our allies, meanwhile, watch with growing concern. Nations that have been steadfast partners now face unexpected economic aggression from their most important ally. Many have already announced retaliatory measures, creating a spiraling cycle of protectionism that historical evidence suggests will leave everyone worse off.
The trade conflicts also distract from opportunities for genuine economic cooperation on issues like intellectual property protection, market access, and technology transfers—areas where targeted, multilateral approaches might yield real benefits.
What makes this approach particularly dangerous is its unpredictability. Markets function best with clear rules and expectations. When policy becomes erratic—shifting dramatically based on presidential whims rather than careful analysis—the economic consequences extend beyond immediate price changes to long-term investment decisions and strategic planning.
By declaring victory after creating a crisis of its own making, Team Trump demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of leadership. True negotiating strength comes not from threatening allies or disrupting established systems but building coalitions around shared interests and values.
As consumers soon discover the real costs of these policies at restaurants, car dealerships, and retail stores, the supposed victory will reveal itself as merely a retreat from a self-inflicted wound—one that leaves lasting economic scars while solving none of the underlying challenges it purported to address.
Enjoy the ride + Plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Bloomberg: Trump says tariffs paused for 90 days on non-retaliating countries
Bloomberg: ‘Is it real?!’ NYSE trading floor erupts as Trump pauses tariffs
FT: US stocks surge as Trump pauses ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90 days
WSJ: Nasdaq soars to best day since 2001 after Trump pauses some tariffs
Trump’s top trade official wasn’t informed of tariff delay until after announcement: CNN reports at the same moment that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was defending Trump’s stiff tariffs during a House hearing, Trump said on his social media platform that the administration will delay the additional tariff hike on dozens of countries by 90 days — which went into effect for mere hours on Wednesday — with the exception of China.
Trump blinks on tariffs, again, for now: The President pauses on some tariffs amid a bond rout and recession fears. WSJ - Editorial
The art of the 90-day tariff pause: This chaos has been bad for everyone. Can the master negotiator now turn it around? Karl Rove
Why Trump paused the tariffs: A stock-market swoon, or even a recession, might not frighten him, but the prospect of a 2008-style meltdown apparently still does. Jonathan Chait
Trump backs down on tariffs, again. And it doesn’t look strategic. Advisers said this was the strategy all along. Their claim is undercut by plenty of details — and Trump himself. Aaron Blake
Trump’s tariff pause brings investors relief—but worries remain: Amid market panic, he backs off his most extreme “reciprocal” tariffs. Economist
The art of the delay: Donald Trump pauses some of the pain, but not the chaos. Economist
+ Most countries’ imports face a maximum 10% levy but Trump hits China harder
+ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the decision to issue a 90-day pause on Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs was driven by President Trump’s “strategy.”
+ Trump says he is raising the tariff charged to China by the US to 125%, effective immediately.
+ Trump stunned markets, announcing he would authorize a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff plans for all countries except China and telling reporters he did so because people were getting "yippy" and "afraid."
+ @Itwitius: In other news... Trump's strategy, which was forseeable, has come into focus. He has paused tarrifs on everyone, except China. It was always about China. Slapping the Europeans about on defence is about China. It's about China.
+ @mmcassella: White House says the 10% baseline tariff also applies to Canada & Mexico. It has not said whether that's the effective new rate itself; whether it adds to the 25% fentanyl tariff, making the new rate 35%; or whether it kicks in only if the fentanyl tariff falls away
Nouriel Roubini expects trade war with China to escalate: Nouriel Roubini, chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, expects President Donald Trump's trade war to escalate with China and the market will keep going lower and lower. He says Trump, China's Xi Jinping and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are all playing a dangerous game of chicken. Bloomberg Surveillance
WSJ: China to raise tariff on US to 84% after Trump’s levies kick in
China retaliated against new tariffs imposed by Trump by announcing it would raise duties on US goods, roiling markets and deepening a trade war between the world’s largest economies. The Chinese government will impose an 84% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10.
China has readied a trade-war arsenal That takes aim at US companies: Beijing’s strategy to hit back at Trump goes well beyond tariffs, targeting companies who bank on their China ties. WSJ
How China’s record trade surplus helped spark Trump’s tariff war: Beijing’s domination of global trade has led to a schism between the world’s two largest economies — and left many others worried about their industries being crushed by China’s export machine. FT
Tariffs: Why is it so difficult to catch up with "Made in China" products? The Chinese industry initially thrived due to its low-cost labor, but it also dominates many sectors through its responsiveness, innovation capacity and public support it gets. Le Monde
Trump’s ‘reshoring’ ambitions threatened by tariff chaos: Companies have pledged to build factories in the US but are wary of committing long-term investment while trade policy is unclear. FT
An American-made iPhone: Just expensive or completely impossible? Trump’s tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the US. So what—besides magic—would it take to make iPhones here? WSJ
Tariffs didn’t drive America’s nineteenth-century growth. They won’t today, either: Innovation, capital, and labor powered US industrial advances, not trade barriers. Brian Albrecht
Trump is ruining his supporters’ dreams: The president won by appealing to strivers, hoping to get rich. His tariffs now threaten that support. Reihan Salam + Charles Fain Lehman
Inside the West Coast Pports at the epicenter of Trump’s trade tariffs: As President Trump’s tariffs against China go into effect, WSJ’s Paul Berger explains what’s next for the largest port complex in the US—the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—and the economic aftershocks in store for the rest of the country. WSJ
The hopeless search for Trump’s cunning plan: Attempts to read grand strategy into the US president’s doings have run their course. Janan Ganesh
It falls to Congress to unravel Trump’s reckless tariffs: If Republicans are serious, they should join with Democrats to pass a resolution to fix this crisis. Elizabeth Warren
+ A new Quinnipiac poll finds a vast majority of voters (72 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the short-term, while a smaller majority (53 percent) think the tariffs will hurt the US economy in the long-term as well.
+ Chaos sown by the president’s trade war means corporate America is planning for a recession.
'Somebody has to pay the cost': Business owners break down tariff drama on social media: A flurry of small business owners has taken to social media platforms to address fans directly about the prohibitive number-crunching Trump’s tariffs have forced them to initiate. FC
FT: Prada cuts Versace purchase price by $200mn after Trump tariffs
Prada deal for Versace at risk of collapsing with market in turmoil: WSJ reports Prada’s tentative deal to acquire Versace from Capri for roughly $1.4 billion could be announced as soon as Thursday if Prada’s namesake family sign off.
Bloomberg: Amazon cancels some inventory orders from China after tariffs
Bloomberg: Nike, Walmart jump on 90-Day tariff pause for key suppliers
How Trump’s tariffs could make AI development more expensive: Time reports that the companies at the forefront of the AI industry are currently spending hundreds of billions of dollars on building new data centers to train AI models. Tariffs will increase the already gargantuan costs of those efforts, analysts say.
Bloomberg: Apple’s iPhone cost could rise 90% if it’s made in US, BofA says
Apple turns to India to help ease Trump’s China tariffs: iPhone maker is facing one of the biggest threats to its business in years. FT
Tariffs put Taiwan on shaky ground with US, may open door for China: WP reports tariff on most goods from Taiwan is the latest in a string of confusing signals from the Trump administration that has Taipei wondering where it stands.
Is this America’s Liz Truss moment? Ms. Truss, Britain’s prime minister for 44 days, was forced out after her radical policies caused a market meltdown. But there are some key differences with President Trump. NYT
LAT: Trump threats do the unthinkable: transform Canadians into flag-waving, US-booing patriots
Trump is losing in a landslide in Canada: The president’s trade war and threats of annexation have united Canadians as never before. Rolling Stone
LAT: Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We’re leaving
The battlefield lessons North Korea has learned fighting Ukraine: Combat experience has taught the Russian ally modern warfare tactics that, combined with ideological fervor, make it a significant adversary for the Ukrainians. WSJ
Ukraine counts more than 150 Chinese citizens fighting for Russia: WSJ reports Beijing has denied military involvement in Ukraine after Kyiv said it captured two Chinese citizens.
Europe should buy from Ukraine’s defence industry: And invest in it too. Economist
Iran’s foreign minister said his country is ready to “seal a deal” with America over its nuclear programme but would “never accept coercion.”
Bloomberg: Trump says he’d use military to prevent Iran from nuclear weapon
Macron says France could recognize Palestinian state in June: Le Monde reports the French president stated that at a UN conference in June, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia, several countries could finalize a joint move toward mutual recognition of a Palestinian state.
Netherlands expands state-run experiment for legal cannabis sales: FC reports while growing cannabis is still illegal, cannabis shops—known as coffeeshops—in 10 municipalities will be allowed to sell marijuana from 10 licensed producers.
Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic bloc agreed a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats. Friedrich Merz will become chancellor, having led his Christian Democratic Union to an election victory in February.
Britain’s parties cater to a voter who is, often literally, dead: To understand British politics, one must understand Dead Man. Economist
UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill: Algorithms allegedly being used to study data of thousands of people, in project critics say is ‘chilling and dystopian.’ Guardian
CNBC: Europe unveils plan to become ‘AI continent’ with simpler rules, more infrastructure
+ The European Commission on Wednesday outlined its so-called “AI Continent Action Plan,” which aims to “transform Europe’s strong traditional industries and its exceptional talent pool into powerful engines of AI innovation and acceleration.”
+ The bloc said it would create a new AI Act Service Desk to help regional firms comply with its landmark law on artificial intelligence.
+ The EU has faced criticisms from tech leaders that its rules on everything from AI to taxation hinder innovation and make it harder for startups to operate across the region.
Shaping Europe’s leadership in artificial intelligence with the AI continent action plan: The European Union can become a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and promote the development and deployment of AI solutions that benefit society and the economy. The Commission has presented the AI continent action plan to turn EU strengths, such as unparalleled talent and strong traditional industries, into AI accelerators. Webpage
Panama hopes Hegseth visit turns page and ends Trump pressure: WSJ reports US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth secured commitments but left some Panamanian officials wondering if they would mollify President Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to “take back” the Panama Canal.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Pete Hoekstra, the former West Michigan congressman who served as President Donald Trump's ambassador to the Netherlands and as state Republican Party chairman last year, has been formally installed in a new role: US ambassador to Canada.
CNN: Tulsi Gabbard declared her residency in Texas. Then she voted in Hawaii
Trump team to freeze nearly $2 billion at Cornell and Northwestern Universities: WSJ reports the federal government is investigating both schools for alleged civil-rights violations, as part of a rapidly expanding crackdown on elite research universities.
Bloomberg: US government employs AI to analyze worker personnel files
Axios: Trump pushes coal to feed AI power demand
Trump takes aim at low-pressure showers with executive order: WSJ reports the president has signed an executive order rolling back a federal regulation he has blamed for poor water pressure.
NASA chief nominee says he wants to pursue both Mars and Moon missions: WSJ reports Jared Isaacman said he backed NASA plans to keep the International Space Station operating through around 2030, a position different from Elon Musk’s.
Measles outbreak in Texas now tops 500 cases: FC reports the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working with Texas officials to determine how to assist with the outbreak response.
New wave of Democratic primary challengers bring age problem into focus: Politico reports a spate of challenges against longtime Democratic incumbents suggests some in the party are fed up with its current leadership.
Democratic US senators question Google and Microsoft's AI deals: Reuters reports US Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking Democrats on the Senate banking and finance committees, respectively, asked Google for details about its partnership with AI startup Anthropic and Microsoft about its tie-up with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, according to the letters.
Big Bank CEOs reckon with their lack of influence on Trump: Tariffs extinguish animal spirits as deals grind to a halt and recession forecasts climb. WSJ
Pronouns in bio? You may not get a response from the White House. NYT reports some Trump administration officials have declined to answer questions from several journalists on the basis of their email signatures.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
How the Caribbean could turn a plague of seaweed into fuel and fertilizer: Sargassum seaweed is a problem throughout the Caribbean, but scientists have a plan to transform it into a renewable energy source. WP
Lego just opened a $1 billion factory in Vietnam that will run entirely on clean energy: FC reports the Lego factory in the industrial area of Binh Duong, close to Ho Chi Minh City, is the first in Vietnam that aims to run entirely on clean energy.
Kim Sung-joo, the business maverick who built a fashion empire on a backpack: Meet the South Korean entrepreneur who turned MCM Worldwide into a global phenomenon. FT
Europe's first Universal theme park coming to UK: BBC reports the first Universal theme park in Europe will be built in the UK, the government has promised. The attraction is planned for the site of a former brickworks near Bedford and could create an estimated 28,000 jobs before opening in 2031. Universal estimated the 476-acre complex could attract 8.5 million visitors in its first year.
For the first time, artificial intelligence is being used at a nuclear power plant: California’s Diablo Canyon: Some lawmakers think additional guardrails are needed for future uses. For now, the facility will use AI to comply with regulations. The Markup
Bloomberg: OpenAI rival Anthropic to offer $200 monthly Claude chatbot subscription
Some people think AI writing has a tell — the em dash. Writers disagree. Em dashes have been derided as the “ChatGPT hyphen” — a punctuation mark overused by artificial intelligence. That’s not quite true. WP
Americans worry AI is coming for these jobs: A Pew Research survey shows that Americans and experts agree on some jobs they think will be most affected by artificial intelligence. WP
Deepfake porn is a labor issue: AI-generated porn could put hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans out of work. FC
*** Culture ***
How do you rebuild a place like the Palisades? It was an idyllic pocket of Los Angeles where people knew their neighbors — and homes sold for $5 million. The fire ignited competing visions for its future. NYT
Are e-bikes a godsend or the road to perdition? An Amish community is torn. As the battery-powered bikes spread in the 40,000-person Ohio settlement, so does the fear they will undermine family values. WSJ
*** Sport ***
Formula One’s TV rights are up for grabs, but media companies aren’t racing to bid: WSJ reports Liberty Media’s F1 is seeking $150 million to $180 million a year for the fast-growing sport.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 9
Marc Ross Daily | April 9
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
The actual cost of Trump's trade war: How 104% tariffs will strangle American businesses
While you were sleeping, the Trump administration imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports at midnight.
This new economic reality doesn't just represent a policy shift—it will create a financial tsunami for American businesses caught in the undertow. When Team Trump grandstands about getting tough on trade, they rarely mention the small business owner who watches their profit margins vanish overnight or the consumer who pays double at checkout.
Consider this straightforward example: A typical wholesale product priced at $50 suddenly carries an additional $52 tariff burden, transforming its landed cost to $102 before accounting for shipping, warehousing, or marketing expenses. This mathematical reality demolishes business models across the country without fanfare or headlines.
It is no wonder Elon Musk called Trump's top trade adviser Peter Navarro a 'moron' and 'dumber than a sack of bricks.'
These overnight dramatic cost increases will destroy the careful economic calculations that power the American economy. For the restaurant equipment supplier in Milwaukee, the furniture store in Buffalo, or the bicycle retailer in Detroit, such tariffs don't punish foreign competitors—they punish American entrepreneurs who built businesses on reliable supply chains and long-term cost expectations.
Many small businesses you frequent and support in your hometown operate on margins thinner than most Americans realize. Your neighborhood hardware store might maintain just 15-20% profit margins, making doubling wholesale costs catastrophic rather than merely challenging. When politicians speak of tariffs as "getting tough," they ignore the impossible choices forced upon small business owners: drastically raise prices, slash quality, lay off workers, or close entirely.
This economic ripple effect will extend far beyond local small businesses. More prominent American manufacturers dependent on Chinese components face similar dilemmas when their supply costs skyrocket. Consider a Midwest factory producing e-bikes with imported motors, which now confronts component costs exceeding the previous retail price of its finished goods. This manufacturing disruption will create economic instability that tariff proponents claim to address.
Team Trump will argue that businesses can source elsewhere, but this oversimplification ignores market realities.
China's manufacturing ecosystem has developed over decades, combining specialized expertise, infrastructure, and economies of scale that are unmatched in most regions. Shifting supply chains requires years, not months, leaving small businesses vulnerable during transition periods when competitors might gain decisive market advantages.
The historical precedent of the US government using tariffs paints a sobering picture. When steel and aluminum tariffs were implemented in 2018, studies from the Federal Reserve found they directly contributed to reduced manufacturing employment and higher consumer prices. Far from strengthening American industry, these tariffs weakened the sectors they intended to protect by increasing input costs across industrial supply chains.
The psychological impact on business planning creates additional damage.
Uncertainty paralyzes investment decisions, expansion plans, and hiring initiatives. Headlines are already highlighting slowing employment and investment decisions, and this is all before this 104% tariff rate has been implemented. When small businesses cannot predict their cost structures six months ahead, they rationally retreat to defensive positions—preserving cash, delaying improvements, and avoiding commitments that might prove fatal under shifting trade policies.
For consumers, these tariffs will manifest as inflation by another name.
The family shopping for summer camp supplies or household necessities will experience price increases indistinguishable from other inflationary pressures. Tariffs effectively function as a regressive tax, hitting working families hardest while offering no corresponding benefit to most American workers.
Team Trump's proposed 104% tariffs don't represent tough negotiating positions or strategic trade policy.
They represent a fundamental misunderstanding of global commerce's functioning in the 21st century.
When a wholesaler watches their $50 product transform into a $102 liability overnight, the damage occurs not in foreign capitals but in American communities where businesses struggle, workers lose jobs, and consumers pay the ultimate price for economic policies that mistake punishment for progress.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
CNN: Tariffs on China set to rise to at least 104% on Wednesday, White House says
Nikkei: Trump awaits tariff call from Beijing as China vows to 'fight to the end'
NYT: Markets slide again in afternoon slump as trade tensions escalate
WP: S&P 500 reaches its lowest level in more than a year as signs of negotiations fail to calm markets
Bloomberg: US stocks tumble again with tariffs set to roil global economy
Why Trump’s global tariff war is America’s Brexit Merryn Somerset Webb
Bloomberg: JPMorgan model shows recession fear in markets spiking up to 79%
Trump’s tariffs and China collide to shock the $115 trillion global economy: Investors the world over are trying to reprice risk in an age of uncertainty inflamed by dueling US and Chinese visions for the future. Bloomberg
Why China thinks it might win a trade war with Trump: The country’s officials vow to “fight to the end.” Economist
China weakens currency as trade war escalates: The Times reports Beijing boosts its export competitiveness and lowers the cost of its goods and services in face of extra Trump tariffs.
Reuters: Trump's port fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry, say executives
CNBC: US Customs starts collecting new tariffs on imports from 86 countries at midnight
CEOs break silence on Trump trade war: Business leaders have avoided voicing concerns about tariffs for weeks, but some are getting vocal. WSJ
Companies stung by tariffs explore lawsuit against Trump: Trade groups are weighing the risk that a lawsuit could prompt Trump to dig in on tariffs. WSJ
Wall Street bursts with anger over tariff ‘stupidity’: Billionaire investors are in an unfamiliar position, watching and cringing as tariffs roll on and the stock market reels. NYT
Trump’s tariffs are already reducing car imports and idling factories: NYT reports a few carmakers have closed factories, laid off workers or shifted production in response to the auto tariffs that took effect last week.
Trump and the mob boss approach to global markets: The US president discovers that it is easier to shake down a law firm than to reshape the international trading system. Gideon Rachman
Trump has no idea what he has unleashed: There is no school of foreign policy realism or trade mercantilism that could explain the US president’s actions. Edward Luce
Trump’s tariffs will damage the world: The trade deficits will remain roughly unchanged — the globe will just end up poorer. Martin Wolf
How global trade could survive Trump’s tariffs: Whether world trade collapses, like it did the 1930s, depends on whether other countries retaliate and Trump negotiates. Greg Ip
The hopeful tariff endgame isn’t so hopeful: Even if Trump backs down he will have succeeded in building uncertainty, which is itself a sort of tariff. Jason Furman
Lutnick’s strategy flummoxes business leaders and White House aides: Some executives have come away from meetings with the commerce secretary confused and exasperated. WSJ
Musk disparages Trump’s trade adviser, exposing rift in president’s inner circle: NYT reports the feud between two of President Trump’s top advisers is playing out as the administration’s new tariffs have caused huge losses across global financial markets.
From Apple to Samsung, Trump's tariffs force supply chains to adapt -- fast: Nikkei reports Asian suppliers to HP, Dell and more reckon with a deeper, longer trade war.
US tariffs threaten almost $2tn of investment pledges by global companies: FT reports businesses with supply chains vulnerable to sweeping duties had been hoping to negotiate concessions from Washington.
In a tiny Gulf town, big cheers for Trump’s tariffs: Imported shrimp overwhelms local shrimpers, who now are hopeful they can come back. WSJ
The stock market will go down 80% ‘when this is over,’ says bearish investor Mark Spitznagel: MW reports Spitznagel still believes we haven’t entered the main event and the recent stock-market plunge is just a ‘trap.’
CNBC: Tech analyst responds to Trump wanting Apple to make iPhones in US: ‘I don’t think that’s a thing’
Reuters: Brazil, Egypt and Singapore among potential winners from tariff onslaught
Singapore warns end of free trade era ‘very hostile’ for small nations: City-state’s foreign minister fears collapse of world trading system after Trump’s tariffs. FT
Canada’s economy is starting to crack under trade-war pressure: WSJ reports expectations of a recession rise along with unemployment as the outlook for consumer demand shrinks.
Wayne Gretzky, former Canadian hero: His countrymen aren’t mourning the loss of his scoring record. Chris Jones
USA-ITA: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit the White House on April 17 to meet President Trump.
Spain’s government said it would spend an additional €2bn ($2.2bn) on defence this year as Europe seeks to rearm.
Europe prepares AI charm offensive as industry trembles from tariff shocks: Politico reports draft strategy shows EU wants to woo tech leaders with computing, data, skills — and simpler rules — to run AI.
London falls out of top five wealthiest cities as millionaires leave: The Times reports the UK capital has lost 11,300 dollar millionaires over the past year, a higher proportion than anywhere other than Moscow.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Chinese men fighting for Russia captured in Ukraine: FT reports Ukrainian president demands explanation and accuses Beijing of actively participating in Moscow’s war.
Ukraine thinks it can hold off Russia as long as it needs to: Russia may have Chinese volunteers, but Ukraine has drones. Economist
Russia, Iran + China are strategizing on their response to US efforts to pressure Tehran into talks on its nuclear program, as Russian state media reports today.
North Korea is using a technology called THORChain, which allows crypto swaps without intermediaries, to contravene sanctions and move stolen digital assets between networks.
Hackers intercepted about 103 bank regulators’ emails for more than a year, gaining access to highly sensitive financial information, according to two people familiar with the matter and a draft letter to Congress seen by Bloomberg News.
China’s biotech advances threaten US dominance, warns congressional report: WSJ reports the commission urges the US to invest at least $15 billion in biotech research and other measures.
China criticizes JD Vance for calling its people ‘peasants’: NYT reports a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry denounced the vice president’s comments as “ignorant and impolite.”
While war rages, Congo’s neighbors smuggle out its gold and mineral wealth: Vast country struggles to prevent Rwanda and Uganda from seizing valuable assets. WSJ
Brazil and Argentina need to leave their rivalry on the pitch: South America’s two largest economies have a lot to gain from working together in an uncertain geopolitical world. Juan Pablo Spinetto
At least 44 people were killed and 160 injured after the roof of a nightclub in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, collapsed on Tuesday morning.
Panama to file criminal complaint over canal concession: FT reports the move comes hours before visit by Pete Hegseth as US raises pressure over Chinese influence on waterway.
Trump administration weighs drone strikes on Mexican cartels: NBC News reports the administration has increased surveillance flights over Mexico as it tries to track the powerful cartels that dominate the fentanyl trade.
Pentagon considering proposal to cut thousands of troops from Europe, officials say: NBC News reports experts warn that the timing of the potential drawdown could alarm NATO allies and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meet the warriors trying to teach the West how to fight in the Arctic: Melting sea ice, rising tensions and the relearning of what it will take to master the art of Arctic warfare. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Americans give early Trump foreign policy actions mixed or negative reviews: More Americans see the president favoring Russia too much than striking the right balance. Pew Research Center
A new Navigator Research poll finds that the share of Americans who say the economy is “getting worse” is now higher than it was before Donald Trump won the election in November 2024, and that 58% of Americans disapprove of his tariffs, while only 30% approve.
Trump is replacing the nanny state with a daddy state: The president is using the powers of his office in an aggressive, paternalistic way without precedent. Is an old form of intrusive government being replaced by a new one? Gerald F. Seib
Musk's DOGE using AI to snoop on US federal workers, sources say: Reuters reports while much of Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency remains shrouded in secrecy, the surveillance would mark an extraordinary use of technology to identify expressions of perceived disloyalty in a workforce already upended by widespread firings and severe cost cutting.
The cabinet secretary who wants his cookies freshly baked: The unusual requests made of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s staff are raising concerns all the way to the White House. Michael Scherer + Ashley Parker
Bloomberg: Republicans fracture over how much debt to run up for tax cuts
MI-GOV: Rep. John James (R-MI-10) announced Monday that he'll run to be Michigan's next governor in 2026.
NH-SEN: Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) won’t run for the US Senate.
USA Today: ESPN's Stephen A. Smith is thinking about running for president
The Hill: Judge orders Trump White House to restore AP access
Will AI save the news? Artificial intelligence could hollow out the media business—but it also has the power to enhance journalism. Joshua Rothman
Bloomberg has a rocky start with AI summaries: NYT reports the outlet has issued dozens of corrections to AI-generated news summaries since it started using the technology to write them this year.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Google DeepMind is urging a renewed focus on long-term AI safety planning even as rising hype and global competition drive the industry to build and deploy faster.
DeepMind slows down research releases to keep competitive edge in AI race: FT reports Google’s AI arm led by Demis Hassabis makes it harder for its researchers to publish studies in major change in approach.
If Anthropic succeeds, a nation of benevolent AI geniuses could be born: The brother goes on vision quests. The sister is a former English major. Together, they defected from OpenAI, started Anthropic, and built (they say) AI’s most upstanding citizen, Claude. Wired
Shopify says no new hires unless AI can’t do the job: WSJ reports employees now required to integrate artificial intelligence into teamwork, Shopify chief says.
CNBC: Fake job seekers are flooding US companies that are hiring for remote positions, tech CEOs say
+ Companies are facing a new threat: Job seekers who aren’t who they say they are, using AI tools to fabricate photo IDs, generate employment histories and provide answers during interviews.
+ The rise of AI-generated profiles means that by 2028 globally 1 in 4 job candidates will be fake, according to research and advisory firm Gartner.
+ Once hired, an impostor can install malware to demand a ransom from a company, or steal its customer data, trade secrets or funds.
Google’s AI Mode can now see and search with images: TC reports AI Mode adds multimodal capabilities and is rolling out to more users in the US.
Amazon debuted a new generative AI model, Nova Sonic, capable of natively processing voice and generating natural-sounding speech. Amazon claims that Sonic’s performance is competitive with frontier voice models from OpenAI and Google on benchmarks measuring speed, speech recognition, and conversational quality.
Reuters: Andreessen Horowitz seeks to raise $20 billion megafund amid global interest in US AI startups
Meta said that it would require Instagram users under 16 to get parental permission to view some live-streamed features.
Tailscale, a security startup based in Toronto, has raised $160 million from investors — a significant haul for the Canadian company. The deal values the startup at about $1.5 billion.
Why managers fear a remote-work future: Like it or not, the way we work has already evolved. Ed Zitron
*** Culture ***
Variety: Tom Cruise’s ‘Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning’ sets Cannes Film Festival premiere
When the Going Was Good by Graydon Carter review: In his memoir the former Vanity Fair editor and man-about-town recalls the golden age of glossy magazines, when sales were in the millions and ‘the budget had no ceiling.’ Guardian
First trailer for Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme launches: The director’s 13th film, an ‘espionage thriller’, stars everyone from Benicio del Toro to Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Mia Threapleton and Richard Ayoade. Guardian
*** Sport ***
At $378 million, North Carolina’s men’s basketball team has the highest valuation in the sport, according to a new analysis by Ryan Brewer, an associate professor of finance at Indiana University Columbus.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 3
Marc Ross Daily | April 3
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** The Flash Five ***
Today in geopolitical news and how pros should think and talk about it....
1. Trump launches global tariff offensive: President Trump has unveiled sweeping new tariffs representing a fundamental shift in US trade policy. The plan includes a baseline 10% tariff on all imports effective April 5, with significantly higher rates for specific countries: 54% for China (combining previous and new tariffs), 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, and 46% for Vietnam. While Canada and Mexico are temporarily exempted from reciprocal tariffs, the administration immediately imposes a 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles. Markets have reacted negatively, with tech giants like Apple facing pressure due to potential supply chain disruptions. The US Chamber of Commerce has criticized these tariffs as "a tax increase that will raise prices for American consumers and hurt the economy." This represents a dramatic escalation in global trade tensions that will likely trigger retaliatory measures from affected nations.
2. Musk's political influence wanes rapidly: Elon Musk appears to be stepping back from his government role amid mounting political setbacks. Reports indicate Trump has privately expressed doubts about Musk's political utility following a significant election defeat in Wisconsin, where Musk's chosen candidate for the state Supreme Court lost decisively. With approval ratings at just 38%, Musk is pivoting his public communications toward his business interests in space, AI, and electric vehicles. The White House has officially denied reports of tension, stating Musk will depart from public service "when his incredible work at DOGE is complete." Meanwhile, Tesla stock has rebounded 11% in a single trading session, suggesting investors may prefer that Musk focus on his corporate responsibilities rather than political activities.
3. Trump pursues Greenland acquisition strategy: The Trump administration continuously pushes to acquire Greenland from Denmark, sending senior officials Usha Vance and Mike Waltz to visit the autonomous territory. This follows Trump's previous interest in purchasing the island during his first term. Reports suggest the US may offer "a lot higher" financial incentives than Greenland receives from Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has responded by traveling to Greenland amid these overtures. The administration's interest likely stems from Greenland's strategic Arctic location and abundant natural resources, aligning with Trump's broader efforts to reduce import dependency and revive American mining. This development represents a significant geopolitical maneuver that could reshape Arctic politics and resource control.
4. TikTok facing multiple acquisition scenarios: As the Saturday deadline for TikTok to change its ownership structure approaches, multiple scenarios are emerging. Amazon has reportedly bid to acquire TikTok's US operations, joining ApploVin as a potential buyer. Simultaneously, the Trump administration is considering alternative arrangements allowing TikTok's Chinese owner, ByteDance, to maintain ownership of the algorithm while leasing it to a US-based spinoff. This approach would likely face resistance from China hawks in Trump's party. The outcome will significantly affect US-China technology relations, social media competition, and digital sovereignty. Despite increasing regulatory scrutiny, Amazon's interest suggests that major tech platforms are willing to expand their social media footprint.
5. The AI industry undergoes rapid transformation: The artificial intelligence sector continues to show remarkable growth and disruption. Scale AI expects more than double sales to $2 billion in 2025 from $870 million last year. Meanwhile, traditional infrastructure is being repurposed to support AI development, exemplified by a coal plant being demolished to make way for an AI data center. The industry faces increasing scrutiny over training data practices, with OpenAI accused of using copyrighted books without permission. Regulatory pressure is also building, with Democratic lawmakers calling for the return of a bipartisan AI task force and new regulations for "AI companions" that interact with teenagers. Despite these challenges, major players like Anthropic are pushing for AI adoption in education sectors as they compete with OpenAI and Google for market dominance.
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
WSJ: Trump promises to ‘Make America Wealthy Again’ with new tariffs
AFP: Trump unveils sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs
Le Monde: Trump announces reciprocal tariffs 'throughout the world': 'One of the most important days... in American history'
FT: Trump escalates global trade war with sweeping new tariffs
Fortune: Donald Trump announces sweeping reciprocal tariffs against ‘friend and foe’ with a 10% minimum
Trump unveils sweeping tariffs on all imports: NYT reports a 10 percent tariff will apply to all countries, but key trading partners like China, Japan, and Europe will face rates two and three times as high.
Trump announces 10 percent tariffs on all imports, additional taxes for some 60 countries: WP reports the nation could see average import taxes reach 1930s levels.
Trump tariffs and Canada: The US slaps blanket tariffs on global allies, including 25 percent on foreign-made automobiles. Toronto Star reports that Trump followed through on his threat to implement 25 percent auto tariffs on non-US-made vehicles, starting at midnight.
G+M: Canadian goods compliant with USMCA won’t be tariffed by US, but other items face levies up to 25%
+ “We’re not taking it anymore," the president said, announcing the US' tariffs would amount to half of trading partners'.
+ Trump said he is imposing tariffs of 25% on all foreign-made automobiles that will take effect at midnight.
+ The US will impose a 10% tariff on all imports, and even higher rates on nations the White House considers bad actors on trade
+ *20% ON EU...*34% ON CHINA...*46% ON VIETNAM...*24% ON JAPAN...
+ The baseline 10% tariffs take effect April 5... The higher reciprocal rates will take effect April 9
+ Canada, Mexico not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now
+ The US Chamber of Commerce criticized the Trump administration’s tariff push. “These broad tariffs are a tax increase that will raise prices for American consumers and hurt the economy,” said Neil Bradley, the business group’s chief policy officer.
+ CNBC anchor: "The market reaction after hours, I've never seen anything like, this is worse that the worst case scenario in terms of what the market expected"
+ Apple Shares Slide After Tariffs Threaten to Hit Production Hubs
+ Nike Falls as Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Plan Sinks Retailers
+ Gold Advances as Trump’s Tariff Announcement Boosts Haven Demand
+ @EamonJavers: One big point amid all the headlines: I was texting with press secretary Karoline Leavitt during the event and she confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect.
Can the world’s free-traders withstand Trump’s attack? Much will depend on the courage of Europe. Economist
Why exactly is Trump so obsessed with tariffs? Matt Lewis
Analysis: Mystery deepens over disappearances of Xi's 'trusted' generals: The Chinese Communist Party's latest leadership meeting provides some clues. Nikkei
NHK: Over 3,000 dead in Myanmar earthquake disaster
Greece to spend €25 billion to overhaul defense: Le Monde reports: 'The plan involves the most drastic transformation of the armed forces in the country's modern history,' Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told parliament on Wednesday.
After Le Pen's conviction, Macron defends the 'independent' judiciary: Le Monde reports reacting to outcry after far-right leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement, President Emmanuel Macron added that 'judges must be protected.' Meanwhile, Le Pen's party has planned a rally to support her on Sunday.
Le Pen fights back in the hope of saving her 2027 presidential bid: Le Monde reports disrupting years of rehabilitation efforts by the RN, the far-right leader has launched a media guerrilla campaign that also has the effect of diverting attention from her conviction.
Why does Trump want Greenland, anyway? As Usha Vance and Mike Waltz prepare to visit the autonomous territory of Denmark, we explore the logic behind Trump’s fixation. FC
How Trump is planning to woo Greenland with an offer it cannot refuse: Money offered by America could be ‘a lot higher’ than figure the autonomous territory currently gets from Denmark. Telegraph
+ Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, arrived in Greenland amid Donald Trump’s growing calls for America to take over the island.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Waltz’s team set up at least 20 Signal group chats for crises across the world: Politico reports it’s a more extensive use of the app than previously reported and sheds new light on how commonly the Trump administration’s national security team relies on Signal.
Trump’s $1.6 trillion corporate pledge parade: What’s real, what’s not: Business leaders have pledged at least $1.6 trillion in US spending since Trump was elected to a second term as president. If history is any guide, not all of it will materialize. Bloomberg
Donald Trump digs deep to revive American mining: Reducing dependency on imports will be hard. Economist
Nearly 400 books at US Naval Academy removed in DEI purge: FC reports the move is part of Trump's efforts to eliminate content that promotes diversity, equity, and inclusion from federal agencies.
Trump tells inner circle that Musk will leave soon: Politico reports the president is pleased with Elon Musk, but the decision comes as the tech mogul increasingly looks like a political liability.
Daily Mail: Elon Musk dramatically steps down from DOGE in shock move after Trump expressed private doubts
Trump and GOP confront Elon Musk quandary after Wisconsin defeat: WSJ reports the Midwest state’s voters rejected an all-out blitz by the billionaire to get a conservative on its supreme court.
Musk setback in Wisconsin raises questions about his future role: WP reports Elon Musk’s chosen candidate lost decisively in the state’s Supreme Court election, delivering by far the biggest rebuke to a billionaire who has hovered over American politics since last July.
+ @TheStalwart: $TSLA is up 11% from where it was right after the market opened.
+ @PeterHamby: Elon suddenly tweeting a lot more today about cars and AI and outer space
+ A new Marquette University Law School poll finds Elon Musk with an upside down 38% to 60% approval rating.
+ @PressSec: This “scoop” is garbage. Elon Musk and President Trump have both *publicly* stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete.
Elon Musk’s X asks Supreme Court to shield users from US government: FT reports the billionaire backs case brought by Coinbase client whose data was surrendered to authorities.
The MAGA backlash arrives: Republicans hold two Florida House seats despite a sharp swing to the Democrats, but Democrats easily keep their Wisconsin Supreme Court majority. WSJ - Editorial
In a new book, top Biden aide describes ‘out of it’ president before Trump debate: Ron Klain tells author Chris Whipple then president could not focus and obsessed about foreign leaders ahead of debate that ended his campaign. Guardian
Key Democrat calls for return of bipartisan AI task force: Politico reports Rep. Bera (D-CA-06) argues that the House should reinstate the bipartisan group and work more closely with the health care sector.
Kids are talking to ‘AI companions.’ Lawmakers want to regulate that. WP reports after a California state senator read alarming news reports in November about “AI companion” bots’ interactions with teens, his legislative director tried talking to one herself.
+ “It was, ‘Hello,’ and ‘how are you?’, and then the [chatbot’s] first response was, ‘I’m sad,’” state Sen. Steve Padilla (D-San Diego) recalled. When the staffer asked the bot why it was sad, it responded, “Because girls won’t talk to me.'”
Amazon said to make a bid to buy TikTok in the US: NYT reports the e-commerce giant put in a last-minute offer for the popular video app, according to three people familiar with the talks. TikTok faces a Saturday deadline to change its ownership structure.
Applovin is also a potential buyer for TikTok.
Trump team has weighed deal to save TikTok that would leave algorithm in Chinese ownership: WP reports the White House has examined a menu of options to avert a TikTok ban deadline set for Saturday. One proposal — letting TikTok’s Chinese owner lease the algorithm to a TikTok spinoff in the US — would probably face resistance from China hawks in Trump’s party.
Zuckerberg lobbies Trump to avoid Meta antitrust trial: WSJ reports Meta’s chief executive was at the White House on Wednesday, his third visit during Trump’s presidency, according to people familiar with the matter.
MI-SEN: Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow (D) announced her candidacy for the US Senate seat, which was vacated by retiring Democrat Gary Peters.
A US Senate blockbuster looms in Texas, as Paxton prepares to challenge Cornyn: In an interview, the Texas attorney general attacked Senator John Cornyn as out of touch, and said he had talked to people close to President Trump about an endorsement. NYT
New York Mayor Eric Adams’s corruption case dismissed by federal judge: NYT reports the judge’s decision, which ends the case as Adams seeks reelection, also discredited the rationale of a top Justice Department official for pursuing the dismissal.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Amazon set to launch first Kuiper internet satellites this month: Bloomberg reports Amazon says it will launch the first batch of satellites to power its internet-from-space initiative as soon as April 9. The company’s Project Kuiper aims to put more than 3,000 satellites in low-Earth orbit, delivering internet connectivity to companies, governments and consumers, a business that today is dominated by SpaceX’s Starlink.
Ben & Jerry’s co-founder calls on Unilever to ‘set us free’: WSJ reports Ben Cohen has launched a long-shot bid to buy back the ice cream brand he created with Jerry Greenfield in 1978.
A big coal plant was just imploded to make way for an AI data center: WSJ reports the country’s largest natural-gas power plant is planned east of Pittsburgh.
An AI watchdog accused OpenAI of using copyrighted books without permission: FC reports a new paper from the AI Disclosures Project claims OpenAI trained GPT-4o on paywalled content from O’Reilly Media—raising fresh concerns about transparency and copyright in AI training data.
'Titanic 2'? YouTube is cracking down on AI-assisted fake movie trailers that fetch millions of views: FC reports that after an investigation from Deadline, YouTube demonetized two major channels using AI to make fake trailers for real movies.
OpenAI’s o3 model might be costlier to run than originally estimated.
Fortune: President of $61.5 billion Anthropic makes a case for AI in college classrooms as it seeks to challenge OpenAI and Google
Scale AI expects to more than double sales to $2 billion in 2025: Bloomberg reports the startup generated revenue of about $870 million last year.
Bloomberg: Tinder unveils playful AI chatbots in bid to boost engagement
Fortune: No one can clearly define an AI agent. LinkedIn’s engineering boss says that’s okay
Bloomberg: Neuralink recruits globally for research on brain implants
*** Culture ***
RIP: Val Kilmer
Geri Horner: ‘Christian and me? We’re quite silly’: After a few bumps in the road, Geri Horner — now a bestselling author of fantasy fiction — is reading Tolstoy, enjoying nights in with her ‘old school’ husband and dropping hints about a Spice Girls reunion. The Times
Wes Anderson's childhood memories explored in Paris exhibition: The Cinémathèque Française hosts a dynamic exhibition showcasing the playful universe of the American director. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
NFL weighs bids from Serena Williams, Ice Cube for women’s flag football league: Bloomberg reports The NFL is reviewing plans to launch a women’s pro flag football league as early as next year with potential partners including Alexis Ohanian’s and Serena Williams’ 776 investment firm, according to people familiar with the matter.
After Mikaela Shiffrin’s brutal crash, her trauma was only starting: Shiffrin has been on the World Cup circuit full time nearly half her life, but she hasn’t had a season quite like this one. Barry Svrluga
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal