Prep Notes | USMCA Webinar

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On Wednesday, May 15, Caracal Global Founder Marc A. Ross joined a RANE Network webinar to discuss the challenges for ratification of USMCA and the implications for the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Below are his prep notes for the webinar.

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Prep Notes | USMCA Webinar

May 15, 2019

Status

More than six months have passed since a triumphant Trump stood in the White House Rose Garden and announced that, after 13 months of negotiations, the United States had struck a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada.

Trump has to come to terms with Nancy Pelosi - that’s the negotiation that matters right now

Should Trump and Pelosi not come to an agreement, there would be two possible outcome

  1. Either NAFTA would continue to be the governing deal

  2. Trump could pull the US out entirely and rely on the World Trade Organization

CNBC is reporting USTR Lighthizer plans to float proposal today in meeting with Canada's Freeland that would chart path forward on USMCA that would include process for removing steel and aluminum tariffs, which Canada and Mexico have said is necessary to move deal forward - senior official

Deal Obstacles

US Democrats have said that the deal without changes won’t have their vote, nor will they allow a vote in Congress until Mexico changes its labor laws

Canada will not sign the deal so long as the US-imposed steel and aluminum tariffs are in place.

"There is no appetite in Congress to debate USMCA with these tariffs in place." -- Sen. Chuck Grassley

WH Action

Pence as the pitchman for USMCA

Recent visits to Michigan and Minnesota

An upcoming visit to Jacksonville, Florida next Monday - May 20

Trade peace in North America may be just the signal the president wants to send as trade war looms with China

My guess

If the issue isn’t resolved in the US by August, it won’t get ratified until at least 2020 because of the US presidential election

Sings to watch 2020

Biden = May 18 (Saturday) - Philadelphia, PA

Trump = May 20 (Monday) - Montoursville, PA

Dem Party debates = June + July

Canada

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will meet with USTR Robert Lighthizer today in Washington DC as part of a renewed push to lift the tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

CNBC is reporting USTR Lighthizer plans to float proposal today in meeting with Canada's Freeland that would chart path forward on USMCA that would include process for removing steel and aluminum tariffs, which Canada and Mexico have said is necessary to move deal forward

In the last week Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has had conversations with President Trump and Vice President Trump by phone

Tariffs: Canadian officials have made clear Canada will not sign the deal so long as the US-imposed steel and aluminum tariffs are in place - The path for USMCA passage is currently blocked by 232 tariffs

Freeland, Trudeau and others in Canadian government have derided the tariffs as absurd, illegal and insulting.

The 2019 Canadian federal election is for October 21, 2019

Election: The US-imposed steel and aluminum tariffs are set to become a Canadian election issue if they’re still in place by the time the federal election campaign gets underway - Part of any election campaign will ask who is best to deal with the United States of America, get things done, and who can stand up to the Americans

Election: The US-imposed steel and aluminum tariffs are set to become a Canadian election issue if they’re still in place by the time the federal election campaign gets underway

Timing: Canadian Parliament only sits for a few more weeks until a probable June 14 - 21 departure - this will be the last time Parliament is active before the October election will be called - Canada's ambassador to the United States David MacNaughton recently said that it is “unlikely” that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would recall Parliament after it rises in June to ratify the new NAFTA deal before the next election, should Canada be in a position to do so

Mexico

Mexican government passed legislation in April that changed labor contracts. The labor reform package is designed to make it easier for workers in Mexico to unionize and make union members more powerful by allowing members to elect their own union leaders and vote for the approval of contracts by secret ballot. Currently, unions in Mexico are often managed by companies where the executives pick the union leaders and negotiate contracts without member approval — a practice that is seen as corrupt from the US perspective.

On Monday - Mexican Ambassador Martha Barcena met with Michigan Sen. Gary Peters and Michiagn Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at a World Affairs Council of Western Michigan event in Grand Rapids on passing USMCA - Barcena plans to meet with executives from Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., FCA US LCC, and many others

Trends

Earlier this year USTR Robert Lighthizer told the House Ways and Means Committee that failing to pass USMCA this year would damage the credibility of America’s global trade agenda, particularly the efforts to secure a deal with China.

US International Trade Commission report: The commission predicted modest economic growth in the US as a result of the agreement -- a 0.35 percent increase in gross domestic product and 176,000 new jobs, an increase of just 0.12 percent.

The White House is starting to refer to it as “Plan B.” - “Your real two Plan Bs are either NAFTA or withdraw from NAFTA,” said Mike Mulvaney, the White House’s acting chief of staff, at last week’s Milken Institute Global Conference.

Departure as a means to pressure back on House Democrats to sign the updated deal or risk many of America’s businesses suffering from widespread uncertainty over cross-border trade - In the interim, with the letters delivered, Speaker Pelosi and her team will be on the clock - Trump can then go on the campaign trail and say "I got you a new trade deal. This is the best we can get from Mexico and Canada. And it’s the Democrats who won’t help you voters out in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan.’”

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard will likely visit Washington next week, a Mexican source told Morning Trade. But it’s unclear whether Ebrard will meet with Lighthizer to tackle the tariffs. Another Mexican official confirmed that Jesús Seade, Mexico’s undersecretary for North America, remains highly engaged on the issue.

Trump

NAFTA—“the worst trade deal in the history of America”

Trump = He likes headlines. He likes a surprise. And from what we know in the polls, taking a tough stance on trade doesn’t hurt him with his base

Trump aims to quickly ratify the North American deal, dubbed the USMCA, but House Democrats have reservations about it

Should the Trump administration trigger the NAFTA withdrawal notice—even as a tactic to move USMCA deal forward many in Ottawa believe thee would be broader signals about Canada’s competitiveness and being an attractive destination to invest would take a serious hit - The notion that Canada is a launching pad for access to the US market may disappear

Between the politics, polling and court cases that would almost certainly wind up in the US Supreme Court -  can’t see a scenario between now and the US presidential election in November 2020 where neither NAFTA nor the USMCA is in effect

Trump has changed Republican and its trade agenda - frankly Trump has stolen an issue from the Democrats

Time is running out because most lawmakers and analysts agree that, if the deal doesn’t win approval this year, there’s little hope of getting it through Congress in 2020, a presidential election year.

Trump’s tariffs will invite damaging retaliation to farm states, but there’s no plan to stop, or even threaten, the president’s tariff regime — just the latest example of Trump imposing his protectionist will on a party that once celebrated free trade

Jonathan Swan: Trump's long trade war:

Senior administration officials tell Axios that a trade deal with China isn't close and that the US could be in for a long trade war

Trump’s mindset on the Chinese is simple: They only respond to shows of brute force

Does Trump actually believe that China pays the tariffs? The consensus is "yes": That's what he actually believes - his belief in tariffs is "like theology."

President Donald Trump is expected to delay a decision by up to six months to impose auto tariffs later this week to avoid blowing up negotiations with the EU and Japan and further antagonize allies as he ramps up his trade war with China, according to people close to the discussions

Groups

Trade Works for America -  planning to spend as much as $20 million targeting districts + co-chairman is Heidi Heitkamp

USMCA Coalition - backed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the U.S. Dairy Export Council

Pass USMCA

USMCA Honorary Co-Chairman Gary Locke

USMCA Honorary Co-Chairman Joe Crowley

Rick Dearborn, executive director of the Pass USMCA Coalition - former White House Deputy Chief of Staff

30-second ad has been viewed 598 times on YouTube....

Automakers, retailers and oil drillers are among the hundreds of companies that rebelled against  Trump’s tariffs and threats to walk away from long-standing trade agreements, but they’re rallying behind his latest pact with Canada and Mexico that faces steep hurdles in Congress

Fox News Channel as guide

WSJ as guide NAFTA and USMCA

We are all used to Nafta, the North American Free Trade Agreement (and not NAFTA, in our style, since it is a pronounceable acronym of five letters or more). But now that the new U.S. trade pact with Canada and Mexico includes a rebranding as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, will that name and the abbreviation USMCA become household phrases, too? Well, they aren’t yet, so for now we are using phrases such as the new North American trade deal on first reference and the North American pact on subsequent references. But articles should, however, somewhere include a mention of the new full name U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

We are staying away from the USMCA abbreviation unless someone says it in a quote. If USMCA catches on, you will see it used more often, and unfortunately in all caps since it doesn’t seem to have a pronunciation.

Capitol Hill

House Ways and Means trade subcommittee chairman Earl Blumenauer has announced a May 22 hearing on enforcement of the USMCA

Congressional Democrats and some labor groups are demanding other changes before the agreement can be approved. They want a mechanism in place to enforce the new labor rules Mexico is required to adopt under the new trade deal as a way to protect workers’ rights

But if the Democrats are deemed by most Americans as the party at fault for trade uncertainty—“then it’s more likely NAFTA gets terminated without USMCA in place.”

Trump will be highly motivated and will send a letter terminating NAFTA to Prime Minister Trudeau and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The letter would start a six-month countdown required by NAFTA before the US could officially withdraw from the deal—and it would almost certainly open litigation as to whether a president can unilaterally pull the country from any trade deal.

NAFTA—“the worst trade deal in the history of America”

Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley said on Tuesday that a vote on the free trade agreement could be delayed for a year or more

PDF Version (May 15, 2019)

















Brigadoon Remote 2019 | Scotland

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Brigadoon is organizing its first remote gathering of entrepreneurs and thought leaders at Carphin House in Fife, Scotland this fall. 

Carphin House is a country mansion situated on 15 acres of stunning Scottish countryside near to St. Andrews.

The house is a natural blend of historic tradition and modern comfort. The house offers ensuite bedrooms, a country farm kitchen, a sitting and sunroom, plus a beautifully furnished dining room.

There is plenty of space to get lost in and explore, but at the same time enjoy roaring fireplaces and cozy couches perfect for strategic thinking or engaging conversations.

With cows lowing in the distance and nothing but blue sky and countryside, Carphin House is the perfect place to work remotely.

Think of four days where you can work remotely in a country estate, spend the day as you want, work on your book, strategize, think, read, whiteboard, check-out, or go for a hike.

End each day with private chef prepared dinners with fellow participants where the topic of conversation is business development and entrepreneurship.

More here: https://thebrigadoon.com/events/

-Marc

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Brigadoon specializes in global communications and public affairs for business leaders working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Iraq, Iran, Facial Recognition, US-China, Brexit, Slack, Tiger Woods, New Orleans Pelicans

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What Carcal Global is watching today = May 15, 2019

Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 


Iraq, Iran, Facial Recognition, US-China, Brexit, Slack, Tiger Woods, New Orleans Pelicans

TOP FIVE

✔️ US evacuates diplomatic staff from Iraq

✔️ San Francisco bans facial recognition technology

✔️ Trump believes China tariffs will help him win reelection

✔️ Slack said it expects to go public June 20.

✔️ Tiger Woods intends to play at the Tokyo Olympics next year

ROSS RANT

Brigadoon Remote 2019 | Scotland

Brigadoon is organizing its first remote gathering of entrepreneurs and thought leaders at Carphin House in Fife, Scotland this fall. 

Carphin House is a country mansion situated on 15 acres of stunning Scottish countryside near to St. Andrews.

The house is a natural blend of historic tradition and modern comfort. The house offers ensuite bedrooms, a country farm kitchen, a sitting and sunroom, plus a beautifully furnished dining room.

There is plenty of space to get lost in and explore, but at the same time enjoy roaring fireplaces and cozy couches perfect for strategic thinking or engaging conversations.

With cows lowing in the distance and nothing but blue sky and countryside, Carphin House is the perfect place to work remotely.

Think of four days where you can work remotely in a country estate, spend the day as you want, work on your book, strategize, think, read, whiteboard, check-out, or go for a hike.

End each day with private chef prepared dinners with fellow participants where the topic of conversation is business development and entrepreneurship.

More here: https://thebrigadoon.com/events/

-Marc
 

GLOBALIZATION

US embassy staff to leave Iraq as Iran tensions mount: WSJ reports, the US ordered all its nonemergency staff to leave Iraq immediately, amid heightened tensions with Iran over recent attacks against oil tankers and facilities in the Persian Gulf region.

FT: US evacuates diplomatic staff from Iraq

WP: White House weighs responses to potential Iranian attacks, including troop increase


Officials said the number of troops in the region could rise to more than 100,000 in the most dramatic scenario.

Reuters: Amid trade war, China's Xi preaches openness, says no civilization superior

Nikkei: China scrapped 30% of draft trade deal, sources say


Pages went from 150 to 105 after Chinese leadership objected to 'unequal treaty.'

Why US-China trade talks are about more than tradehttp://bit.ly/2VHkXpn

Nikkei: China employs social media in trade tussle with US

China's official media has been mentioning "trade war" more frequently.

According to the World Bank, China accounted for nearly 60% of the footwear the US imported in 2017—and nearly all of the footwear sold in the US is imported.


Economic activity in China cooled across the board last month.

Chinese retail sales on the weakest pace for 16 years as industrial output cools.

Trump predicts victory over China if Fed matches stimulus moves in Beijing.


Robert B. Zoellick: A better way to deal with Beijing: Pressure the Chinese to act responsibly. Don’t settle for a trade deal or blunder into a cold war.

Jonathan Swan: Trump's long trade war:

Senior administration officials tell Axios that a trade deal with China isn't close and that the US could be in for a long trade war.

Trump’s mindset on the Chinese is simple: They only respond to shows of brute force.

Does Trump actually believe that China pays the tariffs? The consensus is "yes": That's what he actually believes - his belief in tariffs is "like theology."


Trump’s tariffs may be here to stay: NYT report, Trump’s tariffs, initially seen as leverage, give the US the highest tariff rate among the most developed countries.

John Authers: China may have miscalculated Trump’s weak spot: By raising tariffs, the White House puts pressure on China to stimulate its economy, which will lead to a recovery in US share prices. 

China’s LNG tariff threatens Trump energy export goal: FT reports, a 25% levy means US liquefied natural gas would probably have to go elsewhere.

Trump to sign order laying ground for Huawei ban: FT report, move will prohibit companies from using telecoms equipment from Chinese group in US.

Peak populism: Britain's Nigel Farage and Matteo Salvini of Italy are projected to lead a surge in support for populist parties in this month's elections to the European Parliament.

Brexit’s loudest voice seizes comeback chance: NYT reports, the populist Nigel Farage shifted his focus to media work after the 2016 referendum. He’s back with a new party and an accusation of betrayal.

Brexit vote #4: PM Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to the Commons next month in a vote that will determine her remaining time as prime minister. She told Jeremy Corbyn last night that in the week commencing June 3 she will bring in legislation implementing the divorce agreement with or without Labour’s support.

Macron struggles to electrify EU campaign: FT reports, French president’s party faces risk of losing to Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National.

US warns EU over €13-billion defense spending: DW reports, the US has warned the European Union that plans to boost defense cooperation within the EU could undo decades of trans-Atlantic cooperation and damage NATO. The EU's foreign policy chief said US concerns were unfounded.

DISRUPTION

San Francisco bans facial recognition technology: NYT reports, taking a stand against potential abuse, San Francisco banned the use of the software by the police and other agencies. It is the first such move by a major US city to block a tool that many police forces are using in the search for criminal suspects.

Gregory Chaitin: Against Method: Gregory Chaitin is a mathematician, an expert in complexity. Already as a young prodigy, he contributed greatly to the philosophy of mathematics and computer science. Chaitin states that although there are truths in science that cannot be proven, there is a reason for huge optimism. This natural-born rebel has been recently constructing a theory of the source of beauty and creativity in nature. The new theory that he calls meta-biology. Watch the trailer here: http://bit.ly/2VCZDRK

Japan plans to create 10 billion 14-digit phone numbers as 5G era nears: TJT reports, the communications ministry plans to create for assignment some 10 billion 14-digit phone numbers starting with the code "020." With the commercialization of fifth-generation, or 5G, superfast mobile communications fast approaching, 11-digit numbers are expected to run out as early as fiscal 2022.

WP: One solution for keeping traffic stops from turning violent: A robot that separates police officers from drivers.

The machine is designed cut down on confrontations between police officers and motorists by reducing the impact of racial bias.

France seeks to stop fashion brands from destroying unsold goods: Bloomberg reports, France is taking aim at the fashion industry’s heavy environmental footprint with a plan to stop companies from destroying unsold items, a government official said. While mass-market apparel brands often mark down goods until their shelves are cleared, luxury labels have long preferred to burn some unsold items or bury them in landfills rather than risk damage to their image that might come from having them spotted in discount bins.

POLITICS

Alabama passes abortion ban: WSJ reports, the bill would effectively ban the procedure in the state and is aimed at reaching the US Supreme Court to challenge a woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy. 

FT - Editorial: The US needs antitrust law for the 21st century

Bloomberg - Editorial: Trump’s other trade war.
 The US is threatening tariffs against imported cars from Europe. Bad idea.

LAT: Trump tests the patience of his political allies in his approach to trade and tariffs

Trade war’s pain for rural areas raises tensions between Trump, Republicans: WP reports, some Republican senators, increasingly frustrated with President Trump, took the unusual step of openly criticizing him. Fueling their concerns was the impression that Trump may not have a clear endgame.

WP: ‘I don’t see him crying uncle’: Trump believes China tariffs will help him win reelection

Marc Thiessen: Trump didn’t start this trade war. China did.

Katie Bo Williams: What’s great power competition? No one really knows
: More than a year since the new National Defense Strategy refocused the U.S. military away from counterinsurgency and back towards the country’s greatest strategic competitors, some policy and strategy experts say the Pentagon hasn’t yet figured out how to “compete” with Russia and China. 
 
It’s the “trillion-dollar question,” one Marine Corps planner says.

Bloomberg: Biden’s early dominance tests the strength of Democratic left

Not 'born to be in it': Beto O’Rourke strikes more humble tone as buzz fades: Guardian reports, in an about-face, candidate says Vanity Fair cover came across as an expression of white privilege as he attempts to reboot campaign.

COMMERCE

Impossible Foods, a direct competitor to newly public Beyond Meat, has raised $300 million at a new valuation of $2 billion.

Slack said it expects to go public June 20.

MailChimp debuts a CRM platform to help small businesses act like enterprise businesses.

Nordstrom’s NYC flagship merges open space with hidden tech http://bit.ly/2VAf50R

“I don’t think the city needs another place just to buy a pair of pants,” says co-president Pete Nordstrom.

TV advertising isn’t dead (yet): Prognosticators keep calling for TV's demise. Madison Avenue has a different view.

Bleacher Report going all in on sports gambling: CNBC reports, Bleacher Report has gone all in, quickly adding sports gambling to its digital platforms and expanding its footprint in the space. In February, the company announced a deal with Caesars to develop sports-betting studio shows inside one of its Las Vegas casinos. The gaming-related programming will start later this summer and is expected to reach the 250 million people who access Bleacher Report across social media.

Walt Disney moved to take full control over Hulu through a wide-ranging deal with Comcast.

FT: Volvo Cars signs multibillion-dollar electric battery deal

Swedish group wants half its sales to be fully electric by 2025.

Michael Hiltzik: Uber’s car-wreck IPO could change Wall Street’s thinking about its ‘unicorns.’ The Uber and Lyft IPOs are big wake-up calls for Wall Street and tech mavens.

CULTURE

Claude Monet’s eponymous 1890 painting of haystacks turned purple under a setting sun, sold Tuesday for $110.7 million—a record for the impressionist. It was the ninth most expensive painting ever sold at auction.

Meet Aurel Bacs, the man who sparked the vintage watch boom: Why are classic timepieces suddenly more sought-after, more Instagrammed, and more valuable than ever before? The answer has a lot to do with auctioneer extraordinaire Aurel Bacs. http://bit.ly/2Vz9xUm

The Type 64 is the oldest car to wear a Porsche badge. A rare sports car, which was designed by Ferry Porsche for the 1939 Berlin-Rome race and was the first to wear a Porsche badge, is expected to fetch more than $20 million at RM Sotheby’s auction in Monterey, CA, this August.

Art speculators bid to lose: David Geffen, Peter Brant, and other collectors pledge to bid on art they want but new third-party backers aim to reap fees by getting outbid; ‘they don’t know what they’re doing.’ https://on.wsj.com/2HtI7pg

"Increasingly, the goal is to earn a quick payout from the fees surrounding guarantees rather than to bring home any actual paintings. New investors, many from real-estate and international finance, have discovered the guarantee and want to reshape it into a financial instrument entirely distinct from collecting art, with its own margins and strategies. All of this is roiling the houses and old-guard collectors, with some warning that the new generation is propping up the art market."

RIP: Tim Conway, comedian’s comedian and ‘Carol Burnett Show’ star, dies at 85.

SPORT

New Orleans Pelicans won the NBA lottery and the right to take Zion Williamson, the Duke star, in the June draft.

John Gapper: Premier League wins by creating room at the top for football clubs: England’s top division shows how to triumph in the age of global sports. https://on.ft.com/2Hve1RV

Tiger Woods indicated that he has every intention of representing the United States at the Tokyo Olympics next year. 

The power of the edge

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"I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you will see all kinds of things you can't see from the center." -- Kurt Vonnegut

For humans who love speed, racing down a ski hill with the ability to execute a true carve is one of a life’s most enjoyable activities. Ripping down a slope on the edges of your skis isn’t just for show, you’ll be able to go faster while staying in control.

True edge-to-edge turning allows a skier to put their ski on the edges just enough that when they start turning the skis will cut into the snow and not slide or drift.

Few have ridden on the edge better than Lindsey Vonn. She is the greatest American skier — and it's not even close. Her world-class ability allows her to find paths down a hill that balance the pull of the fall line against the gates she has to clear at excessive speed.

Vonn's style requires riding on the ragged edge between speed and madness. Nathaniel Vinton, the author of a book about the US ski team’s rise to dominance entitled “The Fall Line,” writes: “Only the best racers have the strength and self-control to cut inside [the paths of other competitors] and go even straighter, even faster, and even closer to the fall line and all its promise of glory and destruction.”

Glory and destruction. Out on the edge without going over.

Lewis Hamilton, the British Formula One driver for Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport, is a five-time F1 World Champion and currently leads the standings. Hamilton is considered the best driver of his generation and widely regarded as one of the greatest drivers in the history of the sport.

So how does a driver win five times when all other drivers and teams operate under the same F1 regulations? The word "formula" in the F1 name refers to the set of rules all participants' cars must conform. F1 cars are the fastest and most regulated road-course racing cars in the world. Appropriately operated, the vehicles ensure high cornering speeds by the generation of large amounts of aerodynamic downforce. Without this downforce, the cars would literally fly away. An F1 driver is looking for speed while ensuring enough traction to stay on the ground.

Hamilton is one of the most complete drivers on the global grand prix circuit. Hamilton can adapt to various car set-ups and changing track conditions like few others. Plus, he typically uses less fuel than his teammates meaning less weight thus increasing his ability to carry momentum through corners despite instability in the car.

Handling the corners at speed is essential for championships, so the real edge that Lewis has is his sensitivity and managing aerodynamic downforce. His smooth touch means that he can operate his car closer to the edge of traction without losing control and pace throughout the corners. Few drivers can perform with so much deft and carry fast cornering speeds.

Championships and instability. Out on the edge without going over.

Being on the edge is not limited to athletic pursuits; operating on the edge is where great ideas percolate. Great ideas come from the edge of our thinking, our mind, and our experiences.

Kevin Roberts, former CEO of Saatchi & Saatchi and author of "Lovemarks - The Future Beyond Brands," writes: "When species change, it almost always occurs first at the fringes. Here the population is most sparse and our orthodoxies of the center are weakest. Here you can flourish isolated from formula and rules, free from the corrosive belief that everything great has already been done."

One company not believing that everything great has occurred is IDEO. Per their website, this global design and consulting firm, founded in Palo Alto, California, creates "positive impact through design." From designing the first manufacturable mouse for Apple to advancing the practice of human-centered design, IDEO is at the forefront of creating change through design.

IDEO creates change through design by a practice called "empathy on the edge." This human-centered approach seeks those who live on the edge. In their fieldwork, the company looks for diverse people and situations to promote empathy, which they internally refer to as “extremes.”

These mostly ordinary people with extreme points of view—owing to their personality, circumstances, or culture—provide a broad range of experiences and well-developed perspectives that would be harder to identify if they looked at a random sample of individuals representing a range of the target demographics.

“The future is already here; it’s just not evenly distributed,” as science-fiction novelist William Gibson is said to have observed. To innovate, IDEO believes we need to understand the intriguing, exciting, and

lesser-known fringes of society, where the future is already at play.

Why? Because as Mika Pantzar suggests the extremes prompt us to discover new meanings and interpretations for old things which can help us determine how best to incorporate the latest technologies and use practices into our work.

The power of the edge is undeniable.

Embracing the edge is about freedom, interesting people, and championships.

Out on the edge without going over. Find it.

-Marc

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications for business working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

The Post and Courier-Change Research Poll

2020 Democratic presidential primary poll:

Joe Biden — 46%

Bernie Sanders — 15%

Kamala Harris — 10%

Pete Buttigieg — 8%

Elizabeth Warren — 8%

Cory Booker — 4%

Beto O’Rourke — 2%

Andrew Yang — 2%

Stacey Abrams — 1%

Amy Klobuchar — 1%

Marianne Williamson — 1%

Michael Bennet — 0%

Julián Castro — 0%

John Delaney — 0%

Tulsi Gabbard — 0%

Kirsten Gillibrand — 0%

John Hickenlooper — 0%

Jay Inslee — 0%

Tim Ryan — 0%

Eric Swalwell — 0%