A week that shook the old order: Most Western leaders are flailing while foreign foes capitalize on their opportunity. Walter Russell Mead
How Ukraine and Gaza scrambled the ideological map: The two wars have divided the West — and not along the old left-right lines. Gideon Rachman
Xi, Putin, Kim, and the optics of a new world order: Alliance of global autocrats has been accelerated by Donald Trump’s use of political and economic pressure against friends and foes alike. Guardian
China’s snub of US soybeans is a crisis for American farmers: Since President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in February, Beijing has retaliated by halting all purchases of American soybeans. NYT
Reuters: US, China reach framework deal on TikTok; Trump and Xi to speak on Friday
Trump administration says it’s reached ‘framework’ deal to keep TikTok running in US: Politico reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China agreed to a framework to allow TikTok to continue operating in the US after Congress banned it last year.
Why is TikTok dangerous? Consider this scenario. The White House is weighing another reprieve. Every day the app continues operating is a threat. Carrie Filipetti
Bessent’s China talks point to a familiar pattern Shawn Donnan
China ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations. The US chipmaker was found in violation of antitrust regulations after the acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox Technologies, the State Administration for Market Regulation said after concluding a preliminary investigation.
India’s push for EU trade deal hit by basmati rice dispute: Brussels plays for time as New Delhi and neighbouring Pakistan press competing claims to grain’s protected status. FT
India and the United States will hold trade talks on September 16, New Delhi said, raising hopes for a breakthrough weeks after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on the South Asian nation for buying Russian oil.
Indonesia announced a new economic stimulus package worth 16.23 trillion rupiah (approximately S$1.27 billion), including food assistance and an infrastructure building program that could provide temporary work for more than 600,000 people.
The Gen Z revolution spreading in Asia: Nepal is just the most recent country to have seen the ruling elite toppled by frustrated young people. FT
Qatar owns 20% of property on Paris' Champs-Elysées: By reviewing land registry records, Le Monde determined that the small Gulf monarchy owns one-fifth of the facades on Paris's prestigious avenue.
Africa holds 30% of the world’s reserves of critical minerals – an essential component of advanced and green technologies. However, producers in these regions exert little control over the global market for these resources and the wealth they generate. To change that, the 54-nation African Union has announced a coalition of producers to coordinate strategies for production and investment.
Mike Pompeo calls on US to move faster on critical minerals: FT reports former secretary of state expects America’s ‘deregulatory mindset’ to attract mining listings.
UK and US pledge to boost financial ties ahead of Trump state visit: Sir Keir Starmer to explore closer alignment of capital markets during US president’s three-day trip. FT
What Britain needs from Donald Trump: Keir Starmer will be keen to shout about tech and nuclear deals during Donald Trump’s UK state visit — but Ukraine, steel and other issues remain thorny. Politico
Now is a good time to state the lessons from America: The US and UK share many essential values, yet we confound each other in forgetting some of our greatest attributes. William Hague
Trump’s state visit must be more than ceremonious: Only a US-UK bargain, forged during this trip, can safeguard Western leadership through tomorrow. Liam Byrne
Keir Starmer must use the state visit to defend our creators from AI: Tech giants’ revenues rival small nations, yet they give little in return.Owen Meredith
Channel 4 to mark Trump’s UK visit with “longest uninterrupted reel of untruths ever broadcast on television”: THR reports, 'Trump v the Truth' will run for several hours on Sept. 17 and is set to be punctuated by "brief text-based fact-checks."
Donald Trump is unpopular in Britain. Trumpism is thriving: America’s president is paying a state visit to a land where there are growing calls to Make England Great Again. Economist
Trump to go easy on embattled Starmer during state visit: US president understands the Prime Minister is ‘on the ropes’ as controversy over Mandelson intensifies. Telegraph
Pressure mounts on Keir Starmer over Peter Mandelson scandal: The prime minister has acknowledged he knew about emails between his ambassador and Jeffrey Epstein before he defended the peer at PMQs. The Times
Is a Labour leadership challenge a realistic prospect? Sir Keir Starmer’s authority is fading markedly after yet another scandal, but an alternative candidate, such as Andy Burnham, could struggle to force a contest. The Times
Tories ‘face more defections’ after Danny Kruger MP joins Reform: The Times reports Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, hints at further switches and says the MP for East Wiltshire will head the party’s preparations for government.
Is British politics broken? Its centre is cracking: The two traditional parties of government are under siege as never before. Economist
Is Moscow declaring war on NATO? AFP reports the Kremlin proclaimed on Monday that NATO is already at war with Russia, arguing that the alliance's firm and unwavering support for Ukraine leaves no need for further evidence. This statement is likely to heighten concerns among NATO members, especially after recent Russian drone incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace. While Moscow has denied that these incidents were intentional, NATO allies are speculating about Russia's motives, with many believing Russia is testing NATO’s readiness—and possibly the US’s commitment to European security.
Europe stumped by Trump demands over Russia sanctions: AFP reports Trump has demanded that allies stop buying Russian oil before he moves on to punishing Moscow, and told them to hit China with tariffs.
Kyiv presses allies for Russia's defeat as diplomacy with Moscow falters: Le Monde reports Volodymyr Zelensky denounced 'an obvious expansion of the war by Russia' after Russian drones flew over NATO countries.
Ukraine’s most lethal soldiers: From the front lines in Kherson, with a unit that kills Russians for points. Ken Harbaugh
Spain cancels €700 million Israeli arms deal: Le Monde reports the decision follows Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's pledge to enshrine in law a ban on arms trade with Israel over its offensive in Gaza. On Monday, he also urged Israel's exclusion from international sport.
43: The median age in Europe is ten years higher than the global average.
Reuters: Canada announces new federal agency to build affordable housing
Reuters: Trump says US struck another alleged Venezuelan drug vessel, killing three
Maduro calls US attack on boat ‘a heinous crime,’ as Trump announces another: NYT reports the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, claimed that the Trump administration was trying to start a war in the Caribbean.
US companies put brakes on hiring after Donald Trump’s tariffs hit: FT reports industries most exposed to rising costs caused by trade wars launch a wave of job cuts.
CNBC: Trump tariffs are fueling inflation, congressional budget chief says
Whirlpool tells US authorities its rivals could be evading tariffs: WSJ reports citing federal data, the company says the declared customs value of numerous appliances from overseas started to plummet in June.
Texas restaurants pay price for ICE raids as scared customers stay home: AFP reports Trump’s crackdown on immigrants without papers intensifies, restaurant owners in Texas say the frequent raids by ICE are taking a significant toll on business, with most workers and customers staying home for fear of being targeted. Nearly a quarter have said they lost employees because of the raids, while 16 percent have seen a drop in customers, according to the Texas Restaurant Association.
Why Trump regrets ICE’s raid on a Hyundai plant in Georgia Ed Kilgore
The ICE raid at Hyundai was a massive own goal: Georgia spent years wooing the foreign carmaker. Economist
South Korean minister says US admits Georgia plant raid was 'excessive': Le Monde reports Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo made the remarks to reporters on Monday as he arrived in Washington for talks with US counterparts on finalizing a bilateral deal. Seoul said it would review whether any human rights violations were committed in the massive immigration raid on a Hyundai-LG battery plant in Georgia.
South Korea probes human rights abuses after US raid detains hundreds of its workers: Le Monde reports Seoul said Monday it is investigating possible rights violations after around 475 workers, mostly South Koreans, were arrested in a massive immigration raid at a Hyundai-LG battery plant in the state of Georgia.
‘It was me’: Suspect in Charlie Kirk shooting appeared to confess in Discord chat: ' I'm sorry for all of this,’ read a message from the suspect’s account, according to two people familiar with the message and screenshots obtained by The Post.
Charlie Kirk helped Republicans break through to young people: WSJ reports it was nearly impossible for college students to open social media without being served a video of Kirk.
CBS News: JD Vance hosting "The Charlie Kirk Show" today after Kirk's assassination
Fox: VP Vance hosts 'The Charlie Kirk Show' as memorial for conservative icon nears
White House plans broad crackdown on liberal groups: NYT reports some of the highest-ranking officials in the federal government used Charlie Kirk’s podcast, guest-hosted by Vice President JD Vance, to lay out their plans.
+ White House senior adviser Stephen Miller pledged to use “every resource” across the federal government to combat what he called a “vast domestic terror movement” on the left, which he said is pushed by NGOs.
+ Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) is leading a group of lawmakers calling for a select committee to investigate “the money, influence, and power behind the radical left’s assault on America and the rule of law” after Kirk’s death.
+ Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) penned a letter to the Education Department asking to end federal funding to public schools that don’t fire teachers who voice criticism of Kirk.
AP: Trump says people on the left ‘under major investigation’ after Charlie Kirk investigation
Jeffrey Epstein estate turns over more documents to House committee: NBC News reports the newly turned-over documents include an additional name from the convicted sex offender's birthday book and his address book.
Anatomy of two giant deals: The UAE got chips. The Trump team got crypto riches. A lucrative transaction involving the Trump family’s cryptocurrency firm and an agreement giving the Emiratis access to AI chips were connected in ways that have not been previously reported. NYT
Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why? We’ve gone from Roosevelts and Eisenhowers to Bushes, Obamas, and Trumps. What gives? WP
Sherrod Brown’s old-school medicine could help an ailing Democratic Party: Sherrod Brown tries to revive Democrats’ blue-collar appeal in Ohio’s Senate race. Justin H. Vassallo
Trump loves AI, and the MAGA world is getting worried: Trump's White House is all-in on building powerful American artificial intelligence. The populist base is starting to push back. Politico
A California AI law passes the legislature: On Thursday, the California state legislature passed a first-of-its-kind bill. It would require AI companies to include reminders for users they know to be minors that responses are AI-generated. Companies would also need to have a protocol for addressing suicide and self-harm and provide annual reports on instances of suicidal ideation in users’ conversations with their chatbots. Democratic state senator Steve Padilla led it, passed with heavy bipartisan support, and now awaits Governor Gavin Newsom’s signature.
The myth of sovereign AI: Countries rely on US and Chinese tech: As countries pursue self-sufficiency in AI, they risk depending on foreign companies, undermining their independence and their goals. ROW
The city leading China’s charge to pull ahead in AI: Money, talent, and entrepreneurial spirit have turned DeepSeek’s hometown into a global AI hub. WSJ
+ These days, Hangzhou is an AI hub at the center of China’s global tech ambitions. Its breakthrough moment came earlier this year, when local company DeepSeek shocked the world with an AI model that rivaled American programs, at a much lower cost.
Here’s what the data says people ask ChatGPT: OpenAI released the first detailed public study on who uses its chatbot and what they most often ask it to do. WP
Anthropic finds businesses are mainly using AI to automate work: Bloomberg reports businesses are overwhelmingly relying on Anthropic’s artificial intelligence software to automate rather than collaborate on work, according to a new report from the OpenAI rival, adding to the risk that AI will upend livelihoods. More than three-quarters (77%) of companies’ usage of Anthropic’s Claude AI software involved automation patterns, often including “full task delegation,” according to a research report the startup released on Monday. The finding was based on an analysis of traffic from Anthropic’s application programming interface, which is used by developers and businesses.
Anthropic Economic Index: Tracking AI's role in the US and global economy Website
Shipping industry enlists AI to tackle rising number of cargo fires: Failure to declare dangerous goods and ever bigger ships mean fires are more common and harder to put out. FT
How a former junior lawyer created a $5bn AI legal start-up: FT reports Winston Weinberg’s company is making lawyers ‘a lot more productive’, but critics say it offers little more than ChatGPT.
FT: Alphabet market value exceeds $3tn
The brutal fight to dominate Chinese carmaking: Pity Ford, VW, and other Western manufacturers. Economist
Used EV sales take off as prices plummet: NYT reports electric vehicles on the used market often cost less than comparable gasoline models, making the technology affordable to many more buyers.
A self-driving car traffic jam is coming for US cities: A century ago, cars remade America. Autonomous vehicles could do it again. Vox
Detroit Free Press: Ford Motor Company to say goodbye to 'Glass House' in Dearborn, move world headquarters
+ Ford will move to a new innovation hub and dedicate it as its new world headquarters in November.
How to build table-top fusion reactors: An American startup is revisiting a 60-year-old idea. Economist
Hackers steal customer data from Gucci and Alexander McQueen: The Times reports Balenciaga and Brioni were also the victims of a cyberattack by the ShinyHunters gang on Kering, the fashion brands’ owner.
‘Adolescence’ leads Emmys with 8 wins as ‘The Studio’ claims comedy crown: AFP reports searing teen murder saga “Adolescence” swept Sunday’s Emmy Awards with eight trophies including best limited series, while HBO Max’s “The Pitt” won best drama. Seth Rogen’s Hollywood satire “The Studio” dominated comedy, taking best series and a record 13 Emmys overall, surpassing all previous comedy series tallies.
Theatre Picasso is the most thrilling show at Tate Modern in years: The artist was attracted to theatre by its glamour and sexual possibilities— this riveting exhibition is a five-star tribute that should be kept on display for ever. The Times
Sotheby’s lands a Leonard Lauder art collection worth more than $400 million: The collector’s trove of 55 works, including Klimt, Matisse, and Munch, will be auctioned in November. NYT
Football is coming to Saudi Arabia, where soccer is king: Saudi Arabia will host a flag football tournament featuring NFL stars in the spring, in a mutually beneficial sports expansion. NYT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
A11. | September 15
The new economic geography: Who profits in a post-American world? Adam S. Posen
Can Keir survive? Inside the plot to bring down the prime minister: With his government mired in scandal, an operation to dethrone Starmer is now under way. Guardian
Tuesday: American President Donald Trump, accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump, begins his second state visit to Britain, hosted by King Charles III at Windsor Castle.
Starmer ‘in last-chance saloon’ as he pins hopes on Trump visit: Facing a backbench revolt, the prime minister is seeking to regain the initiative after the Mandelson fiasco prompted talk of a leadership challenge. The Times
The inside story of how Starmer has (so far) won over Trump: More than 20 Labour and Republican sources reveal how private outreach, public theatre and careful planning led to this week’s state visit. Telegraph
The US-UK relationship is about to become more explosive: MAGA’s bromance with Britain’s populist conservatives is fueled by a combustible mixture of love and hate. Adrian Wooldridge
UK plans biggest security operation since coronation for Trump’s state visit: NYT reports the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk has intensified consideration about potential threats, experts said. British authorities had already made extensive security plans.
The Brits who beat Brexit: Gibraltar celebrates its return to Europe: Nearly a decade after Britain quit the EU, British residents of Gibraltar on the southern tip of Spain, will regain travel and commercial access under a treaty. WP
Why French politics can't cope without an absolute majority: While most European countries have learned to manage their fragmented parliaments, France has failed to adapt. The 'fait majoritaire,' the political dominance of a president backed by a parliamentary majority, has so deeply shaped politics since 1962 that lawmakers have been unable to envision governments built on a base of negotiation and compromise. Le Monde
How Emmanuel Macron’s France became Europe’s fiscal problem child: Dire finances reflect pandemic and energy crisis largesse but also president’s early tax cuts. FT
Sarkozy's son to run for mayor in scandal-plagued French Riviera town: Louis Sarkozy, the son of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, will run for mayor in Menton, where several investigations are open into the local administration. Le Monde
Far right set to make electoral gains in Germany’s most populous state: FT reports Alternative for Germany puts centre ground parties under pressure in North Rhine-Westphalia’s municipal poll, early projections show.
Saturday: 190th annual Oktoberfest, Bavarian beer festival and funfair, begins in Munich.
China outraged by Mexico's automotive tariffs: Le Monde reports the Mexican government announced plans to raise import taxes to 50% on 1,400 products – including automobiles – imported primarily from China, India, and South Korea. Beijing, viewing this as a pro-American maneuver, threatened retaliation.
China pushes for Trump visit as high-stakes trade talks begin: Fate of TikTok in US also sits at center of US-China negotiations in Madrid this week. WSJ
Wednesday: The deadline for ByteDance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers or have the app banned in the US arrives again -- unless Trump steps in with another extension.
Wednesday: China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation.
Japan to investigate undersea-cable supply chains for China exposure: Nikkei reports move comes after US announces plan to ban Chinese equipment in maritime cables.
Japan sets record of nearly 100,000 people aged over 100: The BBC reports that Japan has set a new record for the 55th consecutive year, with the number of centenarians in Japan reaching 99,763 as of September, according to the health ministry. Of that total, women accounted for an overwhelming 88%.
In ageing Japan, warehouse work becomes a job for machines: Amazon makes promising advances but the pool of human truck drivers is shrinking dramatically. FT
War movie made by Vietnam's military a box office blockbuster: Film grosses more than twice Hollywood hits during period of 'peak patriotism.' Nikkei
Digital terror threats are rising in Southeast Asia: A lull in violence isn’t a sign of safety. Karishma Vaswani
Record-low Indian rupee risks further weakening if US trade tiff persists: Market goes out of favor with foreign investors as 50% 'reciprocal' tariffs take hold. Nikkei
India finds out how hard it is to build a finance hub from scratch: GIFT City has attracted global banks with tax breaks and modern infrastructure, but the vibrant community its planners promised remains far from reality. Bloomberg
Argentine President Milei calls his sister ‘the boss.’ Now she’s a liability. An election loss and bribery allegations have put a spotlight on Karina Milei and her influence on her older brother. WSJ
Straits Times: Romania summons Russian ambassador over drone ‘threat’
Russia made drone production a supreme priority. Now it swarms the skies. NYT reports Ukraine is struggling to defend itself against the growing number of attack drones that Moscow has started using in its onslaughts.
Boosted by summits in Alaska and China, Putin moves against Europe, Ukraine: Russia has been emboldened in its strategy of splitting the US from Europe while pushing ever harder to gain a military victory in Ukraine. WP
Trump, reluctant to pressure Putin and Netanyahu, risks sidelining himself: US president has leverage with both leaders, but analysts say he isn’t using it. WSJ
Trump’s reversals on immigration mount over economic concerns: Trump has walked back some significant immigration policies that collide with his economic agenda, angering his far-right allies. NYT
Trump concerned South Korean arrests could 'frighten' investors: AFP reports Trump on Sunday said foreign workers sent to the United States are "welcome" and he doesn't want to "frighten off" investors, 10 days after hundreds of South Koreans were arrested at a work site in Georgia.
US companies put brakes on hiring after Donald Trump’s tariffs hit: Industries most exposed to rising costs caused by trade wars launch wave of job cuts. FT
Inside Stephen Miller’s reign of terror: Everything you loathe or love about Donald Trump’s America, you hate or cherish about Miller’s republic of fear. Rolling Stone
In an era of deep polarization, unity is not Trump’s mission: President Trump does not subscribe to the traditional notion of being president for all Americans. NYT
The American dream is ending in a psychotic breakdown: A rising tide of political violence and the rejection of legal norms suggests the America of the Founding no longer exists. Janet Daley
The influencer FBI: The skill set required to succeed online may not always translate to effective law enforcement. Atlantic
Telegraph: Kash Patel takes victory lap for crime FBI did not solve
How Charlie Kirk’s social media machine rewired a generation’s politics: The 31-year-old activist and provocateur built a modern political organization for the social media age, through the arts of online discourse and discord. WP
Utah governor blames social media for fomenting US political violence: FT reports Spencer Cox said accused shooter of Charlie Kirk had been a ‘very normal young man’ who was radicalised online.
Fortune: Utah governor blasts ‘conflict entrepreneurs’ and tech giants that ‘hack our brains’ after Charlie Kirk assassination
AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield: The latest iteration of flying robot warfare, unmanned weapons co-ordinate to overwhelm enemy defences. FT
AI's prophet of doom wants to shut it all down: Eliezer Yudkowsky has spent the past 20 years warning AI insiders of danger. Now, he’s making his case to the public. NYT
AI extremists are peddling science fiction: AI realism embraces humility and a basic truth: Technologies succeed when they improve lives. Aaron Ginn
The AI doomers are losing the argument: As AI advances and the incentives to release products grow, safety research on superintelligence is playing catch-up. Peter Guest
From Meta AI to ChatGPT: The dangerous game of ever-increasing AI personalization. While publicly pledging to design safe tools, Meta and OpenAI continue to give users the ability to steer their chatbots away from relative neutrality. Is this paradox sustainable in the long term? Nicolas Six
Wednesday: Meta Connect developer conference, where engineers, designers, and creatives will discuss AI and virtual, mixed, and augmented reality.
Fortune: AI engineers are being deployed as consultants and getting paid $900 per hour
Masayoshi Son is going big on OpenAI. Time to worry. SoftBank’s foray into generative AI brings back memories of WeWork. Shuli Ren
Is ChatGPT's fake empathy a threat to mental health? Do conversational artificial intelligences pose a dangerous risk of emotional addiction for vulnerable individuals, or even the general public? Le Monde spoke with addiction specialists. Le Monde
Fortune: AI chatbots are harming young people. Regulators are scrambling to keep up.
Are you experiencing posting ennui? Sharing casual moments from our lives on social media doesn’t seem to make sense the way it used to. New Yorker
Ralph Lauren’s vintage man of mystery: At 71, Doug Bihlmaier has become a style hero to fashion-savvy social media creators. NYT
Shakespeare family tragedy 'Hamnet' wins top Toronto film prize: AFP reports "Hamnet," a devastating period drama about the life of William Shakespeare and his family, won top prize Sunday at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Anime, cocktails, and a fan club: How the Dodgers cash in on Japan: Shohei Ohtani's team takes charge of its international outreach in MLB first. Nikkei
Schroeder seals Euro basketball title for world champions Germany: AFP reports NBA star Dennis Schroeder came good when it mattered most as Germany edged out Turkey 88-83 to win the EuroBasket title, two years after lifting the World Cup.
At World Cup 2026, the US risks a diplomatic own goal: From Uruguay to Qatar, hosts have long used the tournament for politics. Next year, the US may stand out for antagonism toward co-hosts Canada and Mexico. Jonathan Wilson
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Marc Ross Daily | April 29
Marc Ross Daily | April 29
Marc Ross Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for senior executives + comms pros.
Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry. I am here to help.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Marc Ross Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Toronto Star: Liberals win
Globe + Mail: Liberals set to return to power
+ Carney leads party to remarkable turnaround only months after Conservatives were poised to win majority
Global News: Mark Carney’s Liberals projected to form government
+ CTV News predicts a Liberal minority government
Mark Carney wins full term as Canada’s prime minister on anti-Trump platform: NYT reports CBC/Radio Canada, the national broadcaster, projected a win for the Liberal Party in an extraordinary election that was dominated by President Trump’s threats to Canada’s sovereignty and its economy.
Mark Carney’s Liberals win pivotal Canadian election: FT reports the former Bank of England governor capitalises on anti-Trump sentiment to secure mandate for his party.
Mark Carney’s Liberals projected to win Canadian election: WSJ reports the former central banker vowed to counteract Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty.
In stunning comeback, Carney’s Liberals win Canada’s federal election: WP reports the result marked a reversal in fortunes for a party that was on track for a massive drubbing only months ago and capped a campaign upended by President Donald Trump.
Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated: America has emerged from the trade war as an international laughing stock. Jeremy Warner
Donald Trump, beware – this is what a global liberal fightback looks like: From the Canadian elections to universities and civil society, the campaign to turn the tide against anti-liberal nationalists is at last underway. Timothy Garton Ash
Why Trump’s economic disruption will be hard to reverse: The president’s turnover of the economic order has unleashed changes that could prove lasting, because other countries will adjust. NYT
Trump and the abstract art of the unilateral deal: Donald Trump will mark his 100th day in office this week having upended the global trading system, provoked the specter of looming recessions for the US and world economies, and undermined the long-standing roles of the dollar and US Treasuries as safe havens. All these things are likely to cast a shadow over the next 100 days and beyond. Shawn Donnan
The spectre of dollar doomsday still looms: Whatever happens with Trump’s tariffs, investors need to prepare for a new market paradigm. Rana Foroohar
UK and EU to defy Trump with ‘free and open trade’ declaration: The draft UK-EU agreement is one of several being drawn up ahead of a May 19 summit. Politico
Trump trade war dominates BRICS meeting in Brazil: AFP reports the foreign ministers of Brazil, China, Russia and other BRICS members began two days of talks in Rio de Janeiro Monday aimed at forging a united front to US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies.
China says it can live without US farm and energy goods: FT reports top policymakers seek to reassure public that economy can withstand worst of trade war.
Trump’s China attacks are unleashing wave of nationalist support for Xi: Even critics of the Chinese leader want him to stand firm in the face of an unprecedented economic attack. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: US Treasury head Bessent: ‘It’s up to China to de-escalate’ in trade war
IBD: Port of Los Angeles warns 'difficult decisions' ahead as shipments from China cease
+ "Essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased," according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka.
CNBC: Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline
Tariff to recession timeline:
+ April 2: Tariffs announced, containership departures from China to the US slowing
+ Early-to-mid May: Container ships to US ports come to a stop
+ Mid-to-late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt, leading to empty shelves and lower sales for companies
+ Late May to early June: Layoffs inthe trucking and retail industries
+ Summer 2025: recession
Source: Apollo Global Management
Trump to soften blow of automotive tariffs: WSJ reports that after negotiations, companies paying Trump’s car tariffs won’t also be charged for other levies.
Tariffs on Chinese-made machinery drive up costs for US manufacturers: The US economy depends on Chinese tools needed to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories. WP
IBM to invest $150bn in US manufacturing over next five years: The Times reports the computer business is latest example of a US technology group boosting its home investment since President Trump’s punitive global tariffs were unveiled.
Bloomberg: Nvidia, Eli Lilly among CEOs to tout US investments with Trump
Pirelli strips China’s Sinochem of control in attempt to avert exclusion by Trump in US: FT reports the board’s vote is only a first step to ending tyre company’s links with Chinese state-owned group.
Delta Air Lines is flying a new Airbus SE plane through Japan to skirt US import tariffs as President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens the flow of new jets to the the aviation industry.
The trouble with MAGA’s manufacturing dream: Donald Trump underestimates the difficulty of producing in America—and how his own policies will make it harder. Economist
Why Trump can’t build iPhones in the US: The administration wants the iPhone to be manufactured in America. The components that power it show why that is highly impractical. FT
Conclave to select new pope will begin May 7, Vatican announces: WP reports with 135 cardinals eligible to vote, the coming conclave is set to be the largest in the history of the Catholic Church and one of the most unpredictable in decades.
Picking a Pope: Inside the world’s most secretive election: Cardinals will be confined in the Sistine Chapel, after it is swept for surveillance devices. WSJ
Francis: The most important Argentine in history: Monarchs, heads of state, religious leaders, and the Catholic faithful will descend on the Vatican today in huge numbers as the world bids a final farewell to Pope Francis, the Flores-born kid who ascended to one of the powerful positions in the world. BAT
Telegraph: Spain declares state of emergency after major blackout
Euro News: Millions could still spend night in the dark as Spain and Portugal work to restore power
Massive power outage hits Spain and Portugal: WP reports a blackout of uncertain cause spread chaos across the Iberian Peninsula and beyond, bringing life to a standstill.
Spain, Portugal hit by sweeping blackout: WSJ reports transportation and cellphone systems suffered major disruptions, as Spain’s grid operator said it would take several hours to fully restore power.
5,000: The number of Africans living in Scotland in 2001.
Israeli spy chief to step down after clash with Netanyahu: NYT reports the departure of Israel’s domestic intelligence chief appeared to end his unusually public clash with the prime minister.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar to repay Syria’s debts to World Bank: FT reports support is first funding from Riyadh as war-ravaged country seeks to rebuild its economy.
North Korea's diplomacy of 'survival': Le Monde reports despite severe United Nations sanctions and deep isolation, Pyongyang remains a significant player on the international geopolitical stage. Its leaders skillfully exploit global crises, supported by experienced diplomats.
ST: North Korea confirms troop deployment to Russia, hails ‘heroes’
The Russian military moves that have Europe on edge: Putin is expanding bases and preparing to move more troops to European border regions far from Ukraine; ‘we’re expecting some conflict with NATO.’ WSJ
Euro News: Kremlin announces Ukraine ceasefire to coincide with World War II 'Victory Day'
Russia has rejected a Ukraine war peace deal proposed by Donald Trump, the US president, because it does not grant international recognition to territory seized by Moscow’s troops.
Macron sets 10-day horizon to amplify Western pressure on Russia: Le Monde reports the French president added that he believed he had 'convinced the Americans of the possibility of an escalation of threats and potentially sanctions' against Moscow.
Europe fears Trump preparing to walk away from Ukraine talks: FT reports officials are worried US president will use minor progress in talks as ‘excuse’ to disengage.
How Ukraine could break the western alliance: The US and Europe have fundamentally different views on the threat from Russia and the protection of democracy. Gideon Rachman
Palau’s president vows to stand with Taiwan ‘til death do us part’: FT reports Surangel Whipps Jr warns Pacific nations must show economic gains to justify snubbing Beijing.
ST: China, Philippines trade barbs over disputed South China Sea reef
China, Philippines make rival claims in disputed South China Sea: WSJ reports both countries plant flags on a collection of sand bars, heightening a standoff between Beijing and Manila, a US ally.
Asia hand Kurt Campbell fears US-China miscalculation in Trump era: Ex-deputy secretary of state urges Japan to be 'intrepid,' take bigger regional role. Nikkei
Singapore’s billionaire class unsettled by moves to narrow wealth gap: The city-state’s popularity as a base for the super rich leaves the ruling party with a delicate balancing act. Bloomberg
ST: US in touch with India and Pakistan, urges both to work towards a ‘responsible solution’
India signs deal to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France: Le Monde reports the Indian defense ministry confirmed the purchase that had been in talks for years.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
You’re failing on the economy, Americans tell Trump in Times poll: President’s approval rating is dropping as only a tenth say they are better off in the 100 days since he took office. The Times
100 days of Donald Trump: US in a 'whirlwind': Republican Donald Trump has been US president for 100 days. Which of his promises has he kept? And what do Americans think about their country in transition? DW
Tracking the highs and lows of Trump’s first 100 days: Tariffs, trade wars, and executive orders. On today’s Big Take Podcast: Breaking down the breakneck speed of President Trump's first 100 days. Bloomberg
Trump’s cosplay cabinet: The president’s appointees often appear to be acting out a made-for-television version of their jobs rather than actually doing them. Ashley Parker
Constantly in motion, Trump’s cabinet portrays a White House that’s always winning: On social media, top officials stream an intimate window into their work that runs counter to the obstacles facing the White House agenda. WSJ
Trump’s ‘buoyant’ trade warrior flexes his power over global business: Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, has become a go-to for major companies seeking relief from tariffs. But he’s not always friendly to their interests. NYT
Trump floats improbable income-tax cut tied to tariffs: WSJ reports the president suggests eliminating income taxes on most households, but the math doesn’t add up.
These GOP lawmakers could sink Trump’s ‘big beautiful’ tax bill: As Congress returns, small blocs of Republican dissidents on SALT, Medicaid, and other issues could thwart the GOP agenda. WSJ
Trump to sign order escalating battle with sanctuary cities: WSJ reports the action comes after setbacks in the president’s effort to target Democratic jurisdictions that don’t cooperate with immigration enforcement.
Trump pushes out AI experts hired by Biden: The shift, say the former officials, represents an enormous waste of federal resources, as agencies across the Trump Administration are looking to draw workers with the very experience they just let go. It also means agencies may have to increasingly rely on costlier outside companies for that expertise. The White House and the Office of Management and Budget did not respond to requests for comment. Time
American students turn to UK as Donald Trump takes aim at US universities: FT reports searches for British courses surge following US president’s assault on Ivy League institutions, data shows.
Trump enters new phase with focus on foreign policy, deregulation, midterms: WSJ reports the president is expected to shift his focus abroad as he works to negotiate trade deals and launch high-level discussions with China.
“We’re in a race with China”—DOT eases autonomous car rules: ARSTech reports domestic AVs can now get FMVSS exemptions for no rearview mirrors or steering wheels.
How Lindsey Graham is accommodating himself to Trump’s foreign policy: “Yeah, I think Europe’s gone woke, don’t y’all?” the one-time hawk asked a crowd back home in South Carolina. WP
In generational shift, Schatz joins race to be Senate’s No. 2 Democrat: The 52-year-old senator from Hawaii is officially running to become Senate whip after two decades of static leadership. WP
Pritzker thunders against ‘do nothing’ Democrats as he stokes 2028 talk: NYT reports in a fiery speech in New Hampshire, the Illinois governor railed against both President Trump and what he called the “simpering timidity” among some Democrats.
Kamala Harris will jab at President Trump in the keynote address at the Emerge gala on Wednesday, making her first public remarks since leaving office in January, a source told The Hill.
Elite universities join forces to resist Trump: WSJ reports the separate from the public dissent, a group of school leaders are strategizing behind the scenes about how to respond and push back against the White House.
The MAGA lobbyists upending Washington with McDonald’s and bear hunting: Washington’s hottest new lobbyist has no experience in Washington but a long friendship with Donald Trump Jr. WSJ
Trump-aligned club for the ultra rich launches in Washington: The launch of “Executive Branch” comes as Trump world looks to remake Washington. Politico
Mike Lindell’s lawyers used AI to write brief—judge finds nearly 30 mistakes: ARSTech reports Lindell brief has many defects including "cases that do not exist," judge says.
How Ezra Klein’s YouTube makeover points to podcasting’s TV future: Major news outlets, like The New York Times and The Atlantic, and ex-cable stars are finding audiences on YouTube. “It is television,” says Mediaite founder Dan Abrams. “Anyone who still thinks of YouTube as something for your phone or computer isn’t paying attention.” VF
The group chats that changed America Semafor
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton says world is not prepared for what's coming: Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton, often called a "godfather of artificial intelligence," spoke with Brook Silva-Braga at the Toronto offices of Radical Ventures about the future of AI earlier this month — nearly two years after they first sat down to discuss the evolving technology. He shares some of his early takeaways about AI, which he says has evolved "even faster than [he] thought."CBS Mornings (Full Interview)
We now know how AI ‘thinks’—and it’s barely thinking at all: The vast ‘brains’ of artificial intelligence models can memorize endless lists of rules. That’s useful, but not how humans solve problems. Christopher Mims
In the age of AI, we must protect human creativity as a natural resource: As AI outputs flood the Internet, diverse human perspectives are our most valuable resource. Benj Edwards
Altman and Nadella, who ignited the modern AI boom together, are drifting apart: The OpenAI and Microsoft CEOs helped each other become power players in generative AI but are now preparing for independent futures. WSJ
Companies are struggling to drive a return on AI. It doesn’t have to be that way. Successful AI adoption begins with a targeted approach, and proceeds with careful orchestration and scaling across the organization. Steven Rosenbush
Meta’s ‘digital companions’ will talk sex with users—even children: Chatbots on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp are empowered to engage in ‘romantic role-play’ that can turn explicit. Some people inside the company are concerned. WSJ
OpenAI now lets users shop for products within ChatGPT, the latest move by the artificial intelligence startup to expand the reach of its popular chatbot and challenge rivals like Google.
Hugging Face is selling a programmable, 3D-printable robotic arm that can pick up and place objects and perform a few other basic chores.
Nscale, a startup that is less than a year old, is already trying to raise about $2.7 billion to build artificial intelligence infrastructure on the back of a pending partnership with ByteDance.
Bloomberg: Elon Musk’s XAI holdings is in discussions to raise $20 billion
DeepMind UK staff seek to unionise and challenge defence deals and Israel links: FT reports the move by employees at Google’s AI arm follows discontent after weapons and surveillance pledge is dropped.
These autistic people struggled to make sense of others. Then they found AI. For people living with autism, experiencing awkward or confusing social interactions can be a common occurrence. Autistic Translator claims to help some people make sense of their social mishaps. WP
Mastercard announced that it will give merchants the option to receive payments in stablecoins amid increasing global regulatory clarity on the digital assets that are usually pegged to fiat currencies.
Silicon Valley billionaires literally want the impossible: ARSTech chats with physicist and science journalist Adam Becker about his new book, More Everything Forever. ARSTech
Sweetgreen’s CEO on robots, ‘MAHA,’ and why salads are so expensive: Jonathan Neman set out to make fast food healthier, co-founding the salad chain in Washington. Now, what goes in our food is political. NYT
Amazon to launch first project Kuiper internet satellites: What to Know: The spacecraft are the online giant’s entry into beaming wireless service from space, but the company has much to do before it can compete with SpaceX’s Starlink. NYT
Amazon set for launch of Starlink-rival satellites: AFP reports after delaying an earlier attempt due to bad weather, Amazon is preparing to launch its first batch of Project Kuiper internet satellites on Monday, stepping into direct competition with Elon Musk's Starlink.
Japan News: Japanese automakers plan to use latest Chinese tech in their EVs
Free Press: Ford said it's made a breakthrough in battery tech to make cheaper EVs with longer range
A $20,000 electric truck with manual windows and no screens? Meet Slate Auto. Owners can buy kits to add accessories and features to the Slate Truck. ARSTech
Five years after he escaped in a crate, fugitive Carlos Ghosn is teaching business strategy: We visited Ghosn in Lebanon where he’s avoiding arrest warrants from Japan and France. WSJ
*** Culture ***
The man in the midnight-blue six-ply Italian-milled wool suit: A perfect suit, made by an expert tailor out of superlative fabric, would do nothing less than transform me. Gary Shteyngart
Trump’s blue suit at Pope’s funeral draws attention: President Trump’s choice stood out in a sea of world leaders and famous faces who were dressed in customary black. NYT
Free Press: The White Stripes headed to Rock & Roll Hall of Fame; 22nd Detroit act to be inducted
*** Sport ***
TA: Shedeur Sanders, Deion taught a hard lesson in humility in QB’s NFL Draft slide
The NFL Draft’s big snub gets football’s worst job. Can he make a miracle happen? Shedeur Sanders is selected by the Cleveland Browns, a franchise with a long history of success-deprived quarterbacks. Does he have a shot to win the job and reverse the trend? Jason Gay
DC Commanders announce $3.7B deal to move team to RFK Stadium site: WP reports he development, anchored by a roofed, 65,000-seat stadium, will be funded primarily by the Commanders, who would put up $2.7 billion, while DC taxpayers would pay $500 million.
Whitehall officials ‘pushing for the Open to return to Trump-owned Turnberry’: Guardian reports that sources say bosses at R&A, which organises the annual golf tournament, were quizzed about 2028 event.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal