*** Ross Rant ***
Why the Trump-Xi "trade truce" is a Trump-Xi "victory"
The headlines will call it a breakthrough. Markets will rally. Both presidents will claim victory.
But here's what I learned preparing for my appearance on CGTN's Global Business program: the real story of the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea, isn't about who won or lost. It's about two leaders who've finally agreed on something fundamental—how to disagree without destroying the global economy.
After US tariffs spiked to 145% and Chinese rare-earth exports ground to a halt, both sides discovered an uncomfortable truth: neither can afford the costs of unbridled confrontation. This isn't a partnership. It's not even cooperation. It's something more pragmatic and potentially more durable—managed rivalry with guardrails.
The theater of US-China Relations
One of the best lenses for understanding the US-China relationship comes from an unexpected source: Christopher Buckley's satirical novel, They Eat Puppies, Don't They? Published in 2012, the book lampoons Washington's establishment and the complex, often cynical nature of US-China relations through the story of a defense contractor lobbyist working to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment to boost weapons sales artificially.
Buckley's insight—that belligerent public discourse is often driven by self-serving interests of politicians, defense contractors, and think tanks rather than genuine geopolitical conflict—feels even more prescient today than it did thirteen years ago. The novel captures something essential: much of the animosity in US-China relations is rooted in theatrical antics and paranoid maneuvering rather than unavoidable geopolitical forces.
Which brings us back to Busan and what's really happening beneath the surface.
The asymmetry everyone missed
The conventional wisdom frames this as a reset, rewinding the clock to early 2025 before tensions escalated. That's technically accurate but strategically misleading.
Trump and Xi aren't playing the same game. They're not even playing on the same timeline.
Trump measures success in headlines and market reactions. He's the ultimate day trader. He needs visible wins: tariffs coming down from 145% to around 45%, China repurchasing American soybeans, and movement on fentanyl precursor chemicals. These are tangible, marketable achievements he can sell domestically. The three- to four-hour meeting gets him back to Washington with a deal to announce.
Xi measures success in decades—or at least that's what Beijing wants the West to believe. What Xi's buying with tactical concessions—soybean purchases, easing rare-earth controls—is far more valuable than what he's giving up. He's buying time.
Time to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency. Time to focus on domestic economic challenges while reducing external pressure. Time to pursue his five-year growth strategy centered on state-directed manufacturing and technology investments. And perhaps most importantly, he's securing something Beijing hasn't had since 2015: a formal state visit to Washington with all the symbolism and prestige that entails.
What China's rare-earth gambit revealed
Here's a data point that should worry every global business leader and multinational board member betting on stability: When China cut off exports of rare-earth magnets in April 2025, US automobile factories shut down, bond markets went into a tailspin, and stocks plummeted.
Beijing's message was unmistakable—and new. During Trump's first term, China's retaliation was measured and proportional. This time, Xi's playbook is different. His team spent the period after Trump's 2024 election victory designing an approach rooted in a simple insight: Trump is transactional, not ideological.
The rare-earth cutoff wasn't just about leverage in trade negotiations. It was a demonstration that China is willing to weaponize economic interdependence more aggressively than before. They watched Wall Street's reaction, gauged America's pain tolerance, and concluded they could press harder.
Yes, China eventually eased the restrictions. But they kept control of the supply chain. That's the pattern we're seeing in Busan: tactical retreats that don't surrender strategic advantages.
The real scorecard: What's not on the table
I've analyzed trade negotiations and worked to advance American trade agreements for two decades, and I've learned that what's excluded from discussions often matters more than what's included.
The Busan meeting deliberately sidesteps the structural issues that define US-China competition: China's massive state subsidies, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and state-directed industrial policy. Taiwan's status. The China-Russia relationship. China's expanding presence in Latin America and Africa.
These aren't oversights. They're conscious choices by both sides to focus on manageable disputes while acknowledging that core conflicts remain unresolvable for now.
China gets to continue its technological catch-up strategy without addressing American complaints about its state-led system. The US receives relief from immediate economic pain without securing structural reforms. Both leaders can declare victory because they're measuring success by different metrics.
What this means for your business strategy
If you're a global business executive or multinational board member, here's my advice based on what I'm seeing: treat this as a breathing space, not a resolution.
The tariff rollbacks and supply chain normalization are real and will provide relief. Port fee reductions for shipping will help operational costs. The predictability is welcome after nine months of chaos.
But don't reverse your diversification strategies. Don't re-concentrate exposure to China based on one summit. This meeting establishes rules of engagement for managed competition—it doesn't end the competition.
Specific actions I'm recommending:
First, stress-test your dependencies on rare-earth and critical minerals. China demonstrated it will use supply chain leverage more aggressively. Trump's rare-earth deals with Japan and Australia are the first steps, but alternative supply chains take years to build. Know your exposure.
Second, prepare for volatility to return within 6-12 months. Trump's track record shows he's prone to reversing course when domestic political pressures shift. The underlying tensions—technology competition, Taiwan, strategic rivalry—remain fully intact. And bashing China on the American campaign trail knows no bounds and certainly won't let up in next year's midterm elections.
Third, watch what they do, not what they say. Does China actually place large-scale soybean orders? Do rare-earth exports to US companies normalize? Does the US pause planned technology restrictions? Actions will tell you whether this détente has legs.
The six-month test
Here's what I'll be watching to gauge whether this holds:
The first test comes in 90 days. If China follows through on soybean purchases and the US genuinely pauses new tech restrictions, that would signal that both sides are committed to de-escalation.
The second test is Trump's proposed visit to Beijing in early 2026 — if he actually goes—and if Xi reciprocates with a Washington visit—that creates institutional momentum that's harder to reverse than ad hoc phone calls.
The third test is the one nobody's talking about: what happens when Xi stays in South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference after Trump jets off to return to the White House—Xi's positioning of China as the stable, reliable alternative to American unpredictability. If Asian economies begin hedging away from US alignment, that's a strategic win for Beijing that no tariff reduction can offset.
Bottom line
The Busan meeting isn't the end of US-China tensions. It's not even the beginning of the end. Anyone expecting a final resolution misunderstands the fundamental nature of this relationship—negotiations with China are permanent, not episodic.
What Busan represents is an agreement to establish rules for a long-term rivalry that both sides finally recognize they must manage rather than win outright. Trump gets his dealmaker moment. Xi gets time and symbolism. Markets get relief from chaos.
But the fundamental trajectory hasn't changed. We're still heading toward managed decoupling, just at a more controlled pace with fewer market-rattling surprises.
The smart money isn't betting on partnership or Cold War 2.0. The smart money is positioning for a world in which the US and China remain locked in strategic competition, with just enough dialogue to prevent it from spiraling into crisis.
That's not pessimism. It's realism. And it's the world business leaders need to navigate for the next decade.
-Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
Trump, South Korea reach terms on trade deal: WSJ reports a surprise breakthrough follows months of contentious talks over $350 billion in investments Seoul has pledged to America.
South Korea strikes gold with Trump’s visit, sealing trade deal: Straits Times reports South Korea went on a golden offensive to charm US President Donald Trump during his visit to the East Asian country, as the two sides finally agreed on a trade deal after months of deadlock. The two sides had not been able to agree over the modalities of Seoul’s pledge of US$350 billion (S$453 billion) in investments as part of a framework trade deal struck in July to lower US-imposed reciprocal tariffs of 25 per cent to 15 per cent.
Trump says South Korea will be able to build nuclear-powered submarine: WP reports Trump’s announcement was short on detail but came a day after he finalized a trade deal with South Korea that includes a pledge of $350 billion in investment.
Trump says South Korea to build nuclear submarines in US shipyards: Nikkei reports Lee says undersea ability will enable navy to track China's and North's subs.
Radio Free Asia will stop publishing amid funding crisis spurred by Trump: WP reports the government-funded nonprofit, a staple of US soft power in the region since 1996, is facing nearly total closure after being targeted by the administration and hit by the shutdown.
Toward a Taiwan truce: How Trump and Xi can pull back from the brink. Stephen Wertheim
Looming Trump-Xi meeting revives hope of US-China trade truce: As US President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping prepare to kick off talks on Oct 30, US negotiators have signalled they seek a return to a fragile trade war truce, but tensions remain high and longer-term economic irritants will likely persist between the geopolitical rivals. Straits Times
As Trump weighs sale of advanced AI chips to China, critics sound alarm: NYT reports the president signaled he would discuss the sale of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips in a summit on Thursday, a move US officials warned would be a “massive” national security mistake.
Trump lost the trade war to China Nicholas Kristof
Analysis: Xi Jinping faces delicate balancing act over Trump meeting: Supreme leader looks to extend his rule but leaves personnel reshuffle incomplete. Nikkei
Xi to Trump: China's rise 'goes hand in hand' with making America great: Nikkei reports at summit, Chinese president calls friction 'normal' as US leader vows 'fantastic' ties.
Ahead of Xi meeting, Trump says he’ll direct Pentagon to test nuclear weapons: WP reports the president said he wanted testing to occur “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, raising the pressure on Beijing as he prepared to meet his Chinese counterpart.
Trump threatens to resume nuclear weapons testing, minutes before Xi meeting: NYT reports just minutes before he was scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping of China, the president threatened on social media to resume nuclear testing for the first time in 33 years.
The US is on track to lose a war with China: Modern warfare is decided by production capacity and technological mastery, not by individual valor. Phillips Payson O’Brien
How China enables Russia’s military: New evidence shows the supply-chain trail aiding Moscow’s drone makers. WSJ-Editorial
Why China and Russia aren’t scared of the US: President Donald Trump has aggressively wielded US power to renegotiate key relationships and cut through entrenched disputes, but mostly targeted weaker actors. Trump will now face bigger challenges from stronger foes, including Russia and China, which are determined to show that his toughness is bluff and are pursuing geopolitical projects at odds with US interests. Hal Brands
Trump rebukes Putin for testing new missiles, tells him to end the war: WP reports Russia tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile that it said is capable of traveling thousands of miles. Trump countered that there is a US nuclear submarine off Russia’s coast.
US reduces troop numbers in Romania, signaling shifting priorities: WSJ reports the Pentagon will no longer rotate Army combat brigades through Romania as part of a strategy that focuses on Asia and Latin America.
US to withdraw some troops from Romania, NATO’s eastern flank: WP reports it is the first announcement of the Trump administration’s plans to scale back forces in Europe, where the US has underpinned security since World War II.
Almost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months: Telegraph reports Kyiv’s easing of travel restrictions for those aged 18-22 prompts an exodus... and complaints from Germans.
WP: Israel says cease-fire is back on after Gaza strikes
Centrists appear to defeat far right in Dutch election, exit poll shows: Le Monde reports Dutch voters appeared to have rejected far-right leader Geert Wilders in favor of centrist D66, exit polls suggested Wednesday.
The Dutch choose optimism over anti-immigrant populism: Rob Jetten beats out Geert Wilders. Economist
Dutch hard-right leader Geert Wilders set to exit power: WSJ reports the Freedom Party’s drop in support holds lessons for Europe’s resurgent far-right.
Wilders’ hopes of becoming Dutch PM in tatters: Telegraph reports hard take on asylum fails to pay off as exit poll shows win for Rob Jetten’s liberal D66 party.
Dutch voters deliver major setback to far-right party of Geert Wilders: NYT reports a center-left party was poised to become the country’s largest political party, according to exit polls. The anti-immigrant Party for Freedom, led by Mr. Wilders, was expected to lose 12 seats.
Spain’s economic outperformance slows: WSJ reports the GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter, from the 0.8% in the second.
Death toll of police raid in Rio doubles to 132, state watchdog says: WP reports the operation was the deadliest in Brazilian history. Authorities say they were targeting the Red Command, one of Brazil’s most powerful organized-crime groups.
Over 130 killed in bloody crackdown on drug gangs in Rio de Janeiro: NYT reports the death toll in Rio’s deadliest police operation in history rose to 132 people, the state authorities say, sparking outrage and a reckoning.
Javier Milei’s chance to transform Argentina and teach the world: Lessons in public finance from the original sinner. Economist
Post-election euphoria has Milei already eyeing 2027 re-election: Results of midterm elections surprised even the ruling party – with fresh momentum behind him, President Javier Milei has put agreements with governors and Cabinet reshuffle on hold as he begins to eye a re-election bid in 2027. BAT
'Non-interventionist' Trump flexes muscles in Latin America: AFP reports in a speech in Riyadh in May, President Donald Trump denounced generations of US interventionism, saying the Middle East was only made worse by Americans who fly in, giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs."
Trump’s grand Latin America strategy starts to bear fruit: Nine months into Donald Trump’s second term, Latin America has become a central focus of US foreign policy. The administration has shifted away from traditional development aid and diplomatic forums, opting instead for a strategy centered on tariffs, military pressure, and bilateral political alignment. Jesus Mesa
US military kills four more people accused of smuggling drugs on boats: NYT reports Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the latest strike took place on Wednesday in the eastern Pacific. It came two days after the deadliest set of strikes in the weekslong campaign in Latin America.
US strike on alleged drug boat kills four in Pacific: Le Monde reports this latest strike is the fourteenth in a string of deadly attacks under Donald Trump's controversial campaign against drug cartels in South American waters.
Detroit News: Sen. Slotkin (D-MI) slams Trump's 'secret war' at sea, warns of next steps in 'authoritarian playbook'
Sheinbaum gets a shot at making Mexico grow faster than the US: With the nation at a crossroads, the Mexican president’s decisions will determine whether growth takes off — or becomes mired in stagnation. Bloomberg
US trade war drives Canada to fast-track port expansion: WSJ reports officials say upgrade of Montreal’s port will help Canadian importers and exporters find alternatives to the US.
Senate votes to block tariffs on Canada: WP reports while symbolic, it is the Senate’s second rebuke of President Donald Trump’s trade policies in as many days.
+ Senate advances joint resolution to terminate emergency for Canada tariffs, 50-46
Why we’re forcing Senate votes on Trump’s tariffs: Do our colleagues side with US consumers or back the president’s economically damaging policy? Tim Kaine + Rand Paul
Bank of Canada exhausts tools to help tariff-battered economy: WSJ reports the onus on refueling growth will fall to Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Communication channels open, Carney and Trump ‘had some exchanges’ in Asia, Canada’s ambassador to US tells MPs: Toronto Star reports testifying at a senate committee, Kirsten Hillman said that Carney "had some exchanges with President Trump in Asia" at an APEC leaders' dinner.
If Mark Carney has a plan for how to deal with Trump, he might want to tell Canadians what it is Stephen Maher
Doug Ford urges US ambassador to ‘apologize’ for f-bombs aimed at Ontario diplomat: Toronto Star reports US ambassador Pete Hoekstra angrily complained to David Paterson, Ontario’s Washington point person, about Ford’s anti-tariff ad, sources told the Star.
Doug Ford’s message to America reveals Donald Trump’s weakness Martin Regg Cohn
Stellantis president grilled at House committee over decision move production to US: Toronto Star reports the head of Stellantis says a decision to move production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, ONT, to Illinois was “not taken lightly.”
30 years after cliffhanger vote, Quebec separatists voice hope for independence: AFP reports the result was excruciatingly close: 30 years ago Thursday, in a referendum on Quebec's independence, 50.6 percent of people voted "no," and 49.4 percent chose "yes" -- an outcome that left Canada whole.
Report: Government shutdown will cost the economy up to $14 billion: WP reports the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says the longer the government stays closed, the more costly the pause will be.
What can break the shutdown impasse? Significant milestones over the next few weeks could shuffle the status quo. For now, both sides remain dug in as the closure heads into a fifth week. NYT
The shutdown is now coming for your airport’s VIP security lane: WSJ reports federal officials have warned that an extended shutdown is further straining America’s already understaffed air-travel infrastructure.
A turning point in the government shutdown: Piecemeal bills are a waste of time. Just fund the whole government. WP-Editorial
AP: Trump isn’t canceling travel, golf, or his ballroom, even with the government shuttered and 750,000 furloughed federal employees
Fortune: Powell cuts rates in the dark in historic move, with no jobs data and Trump heckling from abroad
WSJ: Pentagon orders National Guard to establish quick reaction forces for civil unrest, riots
Binance boosted Trump family’s crypto company ahead of pardon for its billionaire founder: Giant crypto exchange facilitated $2 billion purchase of World Liberty’s stablecoin and built its technology; clemency for Changpeng Zhao surprised some in administration. WSJ
Trump nominee at US export bank withdraws amid scrutiny of Russia ties: WP reports Bryce McFerran is a former senior executive at a steel-trading business co-owned by one of Russia’s richest oligarchs and is married to a member of a Russian family with ties to the Kremlin.
The choreographed fakery of American politics: East Wing edition: Trump’s residential immodesty is nothing compared with his anti-constitutional immodesty. George Will
Trump fires White House ballroom inspectors: Telegraph reports Donald Trump has sacked the team of arts commissioners who were reviewing his White House ballroom. On Tuesday, the US president, who has been sensitive to criticism of the new building, sacked all six members of the Commission of Fine Arts.
+ US president to replace board members with people ‘more aligned with America First policies’
History offers warnings to leaders who renovate official buildings: They rarely start from solid foundations. Economist
Trump advisers consider Las Vegas for rare midterm political convention: WSJ reports President Trump’s advisers are considering Las Vegas for the GOP’s midterm convention next year, according to people involved in the discussions.
Trump pivots on 2028 term: ‘I’m not allowed’: The Times reports the president initially said he ‘would love’ to run again — but admitted on Wednesday that he cannot overrule the constitution.
+ Fox News host Mark Levin on Trump: "Nobody gets to run for a third term. Nobody. And he won't. Bannon is playing you."
NYC mayor’s race poll shows Mamdani with 10-point lead: NYT reports the poll from Quinnipiac University found that 43 percent of likely voters supported Zohran Mamdani, with 33 percent for former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and 14 percent for Curtis Sliwa.
I want your vote, you bigot: In an odd last-minute appeal, Mamdani accuses New Yorkers of ‘Islamophobia.’ Karl Rove
Mamdani is a New York miracle, not a national model for Democrats Ed Kilgore
JB Pritzker’s dark visions: Twenty-seven minutes with the latest governor Donald Trump wants arrested. Mark Leibovich
Three tough truths about climate: What I want everyone at COP30 to know. Bill Gates
When this reporter comes calling, the White House insults go flying: The administration often criticizes journalists, but the treatment of Shirish Dáte, a reporter for HuffPost, stands out. NYT
Automaker production stoppages begin over semiconductor shortage: Honda starts temporary production reductions and stoppages this week at North American factories. WSJ
Honda halts production in Mexico due to chip shortage: Nikkei reports Nexperia standoff with China affects major car export hub for US market.
CNBC: GM lays off more than 1,700 at sites in Michigan, Ohio, citing EV challenges
+ General Motors laid off more than 1,700 workers across manufacturing sites in Michigan and Ohio, the company confirmed to CNBC.
+ The layoffs include jobs at Detroit’s electric vehicle plant and Ohio’s Ultium Cells battery cell plant, in addition to temporary layoffs at Ultium Cells’ Tennessee plant.
+ The company cited a slowdown in the electric vehicle market.
How Carvana’s same-day car deliveries have become the company’s secret weapon: Carvana’s revenue rises 55% year over year. MW
Nvidia becomes first $5 trillion company: WSJ reports the company’s shares have been boosted by the AI boom and a flurry of new deals.
Nvidia at $5 trillion? What is money anymore? The chip company’s rapid growth is redefining the very meaning of “big” in Big Tech. Jessica Karl
Bloomberg: Meta, Microsoft test investors’ patience with AI spending spree
WSJ: Meta shares fall on higher expense guidance despite record revenue
Meta raises its spending forecast on AI to above $70 billion: NYT reports the Silicon Valley company projected more spending this year and said it would continue in 2026 as it hires AI researchers and builds data centers to power the technology.
Google revenue soars to record as AI boom lifts cloud business: WSJ reports the tech giant says AI spending is set to reach up to $93 billion this year, which it can finance with profit from its advertising and cloud units. Shares were up 5% after hours.
OpenAI is preparing to file for an initial public offering as soon as next year that could give the company a market capitalization of $1 trillion, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unidentified sources.
Universal Music settles with AI firm Udio: WSJ reports that Udio has agreed to launch a new subscription service for fans to create music based on licensed songs.
Memory-chip makers are enjoying a boom to remember, thanks to AI: WSJ reports Samsung and SK Hynix hit records as their business deepens with OpenAI, Nvidia, and other key firms.
Fortune: Everyone thinks AI is replacing factory workers, but Amazon’s layoffs show it’s coming for middle management first
I tried the robot that’s coming to live with you. It’s still part human. 1X’s Neo wants to be your housekeeper. First, it needs to be controlled by a human in your home. Cool with you? WSJ
The best source of critical minerals is driving down US streets: Mining is the dirty side of the green transition to electric vehicles. Battery recycling could give the US a cleaner, domestic source of critical minerals. WP
Jerry Jones says he has unlocked a $100 billion gas bounty in this drilling inferno: WSJ reports the Dallas Cowboys owner has backed Comstock Resources in its efforts to develop some of the hottest, deepest wells in the US.
Levi’s rolls out new premium denim, but aims to keep appealing to budget shoppers: The brand recently launched its Blue Tab collection to complement its existing lines that retail for as low as around $20. WSJ
By partnering with Shein, a symbol of globalized fast fashion, the BHV department store has muddled its own narrative: The decision could have significant economic consequences for the Parisian department store at a time when public opinion has become a global strategic issue for companies. Céline Chanvin + Anne Zuccarelli
Chipotle lowers sales forecast as consumers curtail dining out: FT reports burrito and bowl chain reduces sales guidance for third time this year, sending shares down more than 15%.
Paramount begins laying off 2,000 people months after Skydance merger: WP reports David Ellison, whose Skydance bought the media conglomerate this summer for $8 billion, announces move “addressing redundancies.”
Two suspects in Louvre heist are caught without jewels: The Paris prosecutor says two men suspected of breaking into the museum lived on the outskirts of the French capital. WSJ
Louvre heist suspects ‘partially admitted’ involvement: WP reports none of France’s crown jewels have been recovered. Paris’s public prosecutor said she remains hopeful, with two suspects in custody.
He’s never been to America. But in China, he’s Trump. Ryan Chen has turned an uncanny impersonation of President Trump into a social media career, and a mirror of China’s fascination with America. NYT
A24 just opened a restaurant in New York, and it’s as cinematic as you’d expect: Wallpaper reports hidden in the West Village, Wild Cherry pairs a moody, arthouse sensibility with a supper-style menu devised by the team behind Frenchette.
99: The number of days until the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics.
She hiked the entire Appalachian Trail at 80, unaware she’d just made history: “We put all kinds of limitations on ourselves,” said Betty Kellenberger. “Sometimes the biggest one is we don’t get up and try it.” WP
Is legalized gambling ruining sports? A federal investigation into illegal gambling has rocked the NBA and the sports world. Does it change how you view the game? Jeremy Engle
The joy of Spring skiing: There’s something special about gliding down the slopes in the sunshine. It’s also less crowded and cheaper. WSJ
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 29
US sought to lure Nicolás Maduro’s pilot into betraying the Venezuelan leader AP
Venezuela suspends Trinidad gas deals over US military build-up: FT reports twin-island nation has been a vocal supporter of Donald Trump’s campaign against alleged drug traffickers.
Reuters: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say
AP: US launches strikes on 4 alleged drug-running boats in the eastern Pacific, killing 14
US strikes draw Mexico into Trump’s campaign against drug boats: WSJ reports strikes on four vessels in eastern Pacific kill 14 as Mexican president seeks talks with US.
Bloomberg: US hits four ‘narco’ boats in Pacific, drawing Mexico’s ire
The new pirates of the Caribbean: Attacks against alleged drug boats are lawless. WP-Editorial
Trump’s feud with Colombian leader threatens US antidrug efforts: President Trump said he is cutting US aid. Gustavo Petro, a leftist guerrilla turned president, has called Mr. Trump’s boat strikes murder. NYT
As Hong Kong waged shadow war in Britain, ex-Royal Marine became a casualty: UK officials have tracked what they describe as an escalating campaign of surveillance and intimidation against Hong Kong exiles living in Britain. WP
Trump, Xi to discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdown: WSJ reports that if Beijing takes action to cut the export of chemicals that make fentanyl, the US would cut in half the 20% fentanyl-related levies on Chinese goods.
Trump heads to South Korea with all eyes on Xi meeting: AFP reports US President Donald Trump heads Wednesday for South Korea, where a key meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could produce a truce in the blistering trade war between the world's two largest economies.
What the Trump-Xi meeting can and can’t solve: Expect the outcome of the meeting to be a truce—not a treaty. Economist
Why China keeps winning the trade war: Beijing, Brussels, and Washington are all searching for the most efficient way to gum up their adversaries’ supply chains. Chris Miller
Japan and the US unveiled a list of potential projects for their $550 billion US investment vehicle, providing a first look into what specific proposals could be funded by the mechanism that’s a key part of the two countries’ trade deal.
US inks $80 billion deal with Westinghouse for nuclear reactors: WP reports the partnership would be funded with help from Japan and gives US taxpayers an ownership stake in the plants.
US government and Westinghouse strike $80bn nuclear reactor deal: FT reports agreement that uses funding from Japan is part of Donald Trump’s push to quadruple country’s nuclear capacity by 2050.
US enters $80 billion nuclear partnership to power AI expansion: Le Monde reports the announcement marks Washington's most tangible investment in nuclear power since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi finds the perfect playlist for Donald Trump: New prime minister hits clever notes in crucial encounter with visiting US president. Leo Lewis
Donald Trump and Sanae Takaichi promise ‘golden age’ for US-Japan alliance: FT reports president and Japanese prime minister sign agreement on rare earths supply.
US, South Korea to sign deal boosting AI, quantum cooperation: Bloomberg reports President Donald Trump’s administration is slated to sign a deal with South Korea aimed at bolstering cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 6G, according to a US official — part of a bid to maintain a competitive edge with China in an expanding race for tech supremacy.
The US is poised to rock Russia and China — if it holds firm: To change the behavior of Putin and Xi, new sanctions need to keep biting. Thomas Duesterberg
AP: Gaza ceasefire tested as Israel and Hamas exchange fire and blame
Netanyahu orders ‘forceful’ strikes in Gaza, testing ceasefire: Politico reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire during the return of hostage remains.
Israel conducts first airstrike in West Bank in months and kills 3: NYT reports a militant group allied with Hamas confirmed the deaths, which were part of an increase in fighting in the Palestinian territory during a surge of settler violence.
A trip to Gaza’s new ‘yellow line’ shows Israel is digging in: WSJ reports the temporary dividing line between two foes is becoming more permanent with earthworks and plans for civilian infrastructure.
Tareq Amin, the head of Saudi Arabia’s artificial intelligence startup Humain, said he is confident the US will clear the sale of advanced chips to the kingdom after his firm provided detailed guarantees to American officials. One of those guarantees, according to Amin: The company will not purchase equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies Co.
Mass atrocities feared in Darfur after paramilitaries seize key Sudanese city of El-Fasher: Le Monde reports fears of genocide are mounting in Sudan after paramilitary Rapid Support Forces captured the strategic city of El-Fasher, ending an 18-month siege and sparking reports of mass killings and executions.
AFP: Fears of mass atrocities after Sudan's El-Fasher falls to paramilitaries
Zelenskyy vows harder, better, faster, stronger strikes on Russian oil facilities: Politico reports Ukraine’s president also wants the EU to step up by unlocking Moscow’s frozen assets to help Kyiv.
BBC: Surge in Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries
sparks Russian fuel shortages
Russia has pounded Ukraine’s fortress city for over a year, but it hangs on: WP reports it was supposed to fall more than a year ago, but Pokrovsk is still holding out, even as street fighting has erupted inside the city after Russian troops infiltrated.
Michael Heseltine: Reform is fascist. We must stop Nigel Farage: At 92, the Tory grandee Michael Heseltine is making a comeback. He has harsh words for Nigel Farage and Reform, whose policies remind him of Oswald Mosley and Enoch Powell. The Times
Catholic nationalists are on a collision course with the Vatican: Pope Leo’s cosmopolitan stance lays bare a tension at the heart of the Church’s teaching. Jack Hanson
At least 60 dead in mega-operation against organized crime in Rio de Janeiro: EL Pais reports authorities were targeting Comando Vermelho, which has become Brazil’s second most powerful criminal organization.
CNN: Massive police raid in Rio de Janeiro leaves at least 64 dead
Brazil: At least 64 reported killed in Rio’s worst day of violence amid police favela raids: Guardian reports governor says city ‘at war’ after gunfights between troops and Red Command drug traffickers who reportedly used weaponised drones.
The case for a multilateral trade organization without America: US President Donald Trump’s divide-and-rule tactics have shattered the postwar multilateral order. To preserve open, rules-based commerce, America’s major trading partners must form a new coalition capable of upholding the principles that the World Trade Organization can no longer guarantee. Anne O. Krueger
What’s behind the global Gen Z revolution? The rise of youth-led political movements in the Global South point to structural inequalities in the global system. Robert A. Manning
Here's what experts say 'A House of Dynamite' gets wrong (and right) about nuclear war NPR
Pentagon frets over ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear doomsday film: WP reports a Missile Defense Agency internal memorandum argues that the doomsday scenario depicted in the movie is inaccurate. The Oct. 16 memo, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News, is meant to make sure agency leadership “has situational awareness and is not ‘surprised’ by the topic, which may come up in conversations or meetings.”
+ “The fictional interceptors in the movie miss their target and we understand this is intended to be a compelling part of the drama intended for the entertainment of the audience,” but results from real-world testing “tell a vastly different story,” the Pentagon says in the memo.
The Pentagon issues statement decrying Netflix’s House of Dynamite over ‘inaccuracies’: The film imagines the response to an impending nuclear attack on the United States as its anti-missile defense system fails. Independent
I spoil ‘A House of Dynamite,’ Netflix’s nuclear war movie: In real life, President Idris Elba wouldn’t get such bad advice. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
I'm a US senator. 'House of Dynamite' exposes a brutal truth. The film dispels the comforting illusion that technology can shield us from a nuclear attack. Sen. Edward J. Markey
The new Eurasian order: America must link its Atlantic and Pacific strategies: Julianne Smith + Lindsey Ford
Reuters: Trump's popularity dips as Americans sweat cost of living, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
+ Trump’s net approval rating fell to -18%, according to The Economist’s tracker. It is the lowest it has been since his inauguration and three percentage points lower than at any point during his first term.
The political economy of Trump’s luck: Those who are bearish on US democracy should not extend their pessimism to the economy. Edward Luce
Detroit News: 'There's no end in sight': Detroit air traffic controllers lament first payless payday
Air traffic controllers’ $0 pay stubs have arrived: Unpaid government workers, SNAP benefits on the verge of expiration … what’s it going to take for Congress to end this shutdown? Jessica Karl
Reuters: US flight delays near 7,000 as government shutdown hits Day 27
Donald Trump’s trade power is vast, but self-defeating: The view from Canada, as Trumpian threats fly. Economist
The Supreme Court won’t hurt America if it strikes down the tariffs: Despite the Trump administration’s warnings, the economy will not suffer from obeying the Constitution. Scott Lincicome
Inside the Trump family’s global crypto cash machine: The US president’s family raked in more than $800 million from sales of crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone, a Reuters examination found, on top of potentially billions more in unrealized “on paper” gains. Much of that cash has come from foreign sources as Donald Trump's sons have touted their business on an international investor roadshow. Reuters
Trump's inner circle implodes: How McMahon and Rollins tried to oust Wiles: In an excerpt from Retribution, Jonathan Karl reveals the chaos and infighting from Trump acolytes—including a last-ditch effort by Linda McMahon and Brooke Rollins to derail Susie Wiles’s appointment as chief of staff. Vanity Fair
Donald Trump floats Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as new Fed chair: FT reports US president expected to name successor to Jay Powell by Christmas.
Donald Trump’s plan to subvert the midterms is already under way: Our election system is reaching a breaking point. David A. Graham
Speaker Johnson says there's no 'path' for a 3rd Trump term: ABC News reports the House speaker said he doesn't "see a way to amend the Constitution" to allow for President Donald Trump to seek a third term in office.
CNN: Johnson says he’s spoken with Trump about ‘the constrictions of the Constitution’ on a third term
Why is Trump autocracy rising? These Dems have an unnerving answer. A new Biden administration autopsy, based on internal assessments from many government insiders, has crystal clear lessons for the future. TR
Biden adviser says he would have received $4 million bonus for 2024 win: WP reports Mike Donilon’s total potential pay package was unusually large and outsized compared to the salaries of senior campaign officials working for the president’s reelection.
DMR: Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) launches run for governor, promises 'America First agenda in Iowa'
A political drama for the ages, opening soon in New York City: Zohran Mamdani v Donald Trump. What could go wrong? Economist
Bill Gates: Climate change is not the end of the world: The Times reports the Microsoft co-founder, whose foundation has donated billions to philanthropy projects, has called for a change in strategy away from ‘emissions goals.’
Remote work is shaped by geopolitics, not technology: Increasingly, geopolitics is shaping who works, the location of work, and the type of work we get to do. FC
24 AI startups to watch in 2026: OpenAI may get most of the attention, but these two dozen companies are finding their way in AI by making vibe-coding software, building robots, and developing drones. Bloomberg
Why companies will just keep nudging you to try AI: The prodding to try AI products as you watch TV, surf the web or stare at your phone is a classic tactic in technology. It’s annoying, but it works. WP
What AI means for growth and jobs: While many commentators warn that AI will undermine employment and offer only modest productivity gains, empirical studies continue to suggest otherwise. With the right policies in place, the technology holds immense potential to drive both growth and employment. PS
Why AI breaks bad: Once in a while, LLMs turn evil—and no one quite knows why. Wired
48 hours without AI: It’s everywhere, as the author learned the hard way while making as little contact as possible with machine learning and generative artificial intelligence. NYT
OpenAI completes for-profit transition, pushing Microsoft above $4 trillion valuation: WSJ reports startup’s conversion clears obstacle for potential initial public offering, gives Microsoft 27% stake in new public-benefit corporation.
Microsoft holds 27% of OpenAI in revamped partnership: AFP reports Microsoft and OpenAI announced Tuesday a sweeping overhaul of their landmark artificial intelligence (AI) partnership, giving both companies greater independence while maintaining their close collaboration.
OpenAI restructures to become a more traditional for-profit company: The artificial intelligence company said the nonprofit that controlled the organization would receive a $130 billion stake in the new company. NYT
OpenAI restructuring pushes Microsoft’s valuation above $4tn: FT reports ChatGPT creator was founded as non-profit but has been racing to unlock new investment.
OpenAI and Microsoft are avoiding a messy breakup Dave Lee
Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang announced a flurry of new partnerships and dismissed concerns about an AI bubble, saying the company’s latest chips are on track to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue.
Nvidia is taking a $1 billion equity stake in Nokia Oyj and plans to supply the telecom company with artificial-intelligence powered computers for wireless networks. Nokia shares jumped the most in more than a decade.
Nvidia to invest $1 billion in Nokia in AI pact: WSJ reports chip maker will have a 2.9% ownership stake in the Finnish telecom company.
Nvidia to invest $1bn in Nokia as chip giant extends deal spree: FT reports Finnish group’s shares surge by a fifth on tie-up that will see US company become one of its largest shareholders.
Nvidia bets on national security with Palantir, 6G partnerships: Nikkei reports AI chip giant unveils new quantum computing platform NVQLink.
Eli Lilly partners with Nvidia to build AI supercomputer for drug discovery: WSJ reports drugmaker hopes Nvidia-chip powered supercomputer will help it find new drugs and accelerate lengthy R&D timelines.
Peter Thiel-backed startup secures $100 million to make chips in US: WSJ reports Substrate seeks to build semiconductor factories with new laser-based technology, but hurdles are high.
Samsung shakes off AI memory woes but race to innovate is far from over: Nikkei reports tech giant bets big on HBM chips after ceding ground to rival SK Hynix.
Uber is setting a goal to eventually have a fleet of 100,000 autonomous vehicles powered by Nvidia Corp. technology, an ambitious move that could help bring down the cost of offering hailable robotaxis to consumers.
Uber partners with Nvidia to deploy 100,000 robotaxis: AFP reports Uber and Nvidia announced an alliance to deploy 100,000 robotaxis starting in 2027.
Stellantis said it plans to work with tech heavyweights Nvidia, Uber, and Foxconn as it seeks a foothold in the robotaxi business.
Tesla sees the forthcoming Cybercab as its long-promised more affordable electric vehicle — and it’s willing to make fundamental design changes to sell the car in high volumes. In short, it’s willing to make it more like a normal vehicle that human drivers can control.
China looks to replicate EV success with autonomous cars: Nikkei reports self-driving autos to reach 70% of total domestic sales in 2035 under plan.
Detroit News: The 2026 Jeep Grand Cherokee includes a four-cylinder engine with F1 tech
What Amazon’s 14,000 job cuts say about a new era of corporate downsizing: Executives have echoed Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s talking points, tying their job cuts to expected gains from AI and the need for more nimble operations. WP
Is Amazon's massive wave of layoffs the first of the AI era? The company said Tuesday that it is eliminating 14,000 jobs to streamline its operations, without saying from where the cuts will come. Le Monde
Amazon to cut 14,000 corporate jobs amid AI investment: DW reports Amazon hired as its delivery demand peaked during the COVID pandemic, meaning analysts anticipated layoffs. The company is also in the process of boosting its AI spending with a view to streamlining.
WSJ: UPS cuts 48,000 jobs in management and operations
Embattled Tylenol maker Kenvue hires new marketing chief: WSJ reports company to name snack food executive Jon Halvorson as it faces a crisis over concerns of links between Tylenol and autism.
How KFC lost fast food’s chicken crown—and how it plans to win it back: The decades-old chicken chain is battling US sales declines as consumers choose sandwiches and tenders over buckets of fried chicken. WSJ
KFC’s plan to catch up in the fried chicken wars: Ditch the bones Bloomberg
Weight-loss drugs are spreading across the world: The expiry of patents in China, India, and elsewhere will boost uptake dramatically. Economist
How pig organs may soon save lives: After a man lives nearly nine months with a pig kidney, two American firms are preparing clinical trials. Economist
The fight to restore Chicago’s Magnificent Mile to its glory days: The area’s crime rate is down, and cheaper rents have prompted retailers to lease new space. WSJ
CEOs are furious about employees texting in meetings: Jamie Dimon says it’s gone too far. Others are devising new measures, from hiding Wi-Fi passwords to installing the corporate equivalent of the swear jar. WSJ
Why ‘Yellowstone’ mastermind Taylor Sheridan decided to ditch Paramount: The creator of hits like ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Landman’ is leaving the entertainment company after tension with new Paramount CEO David Ellison’s leadership team. WSJ
Stellan Skarsgård knows best: The self-proclaimed “nepo daddy” is at the top of his game as a narcissistic patriarch in Sentimental Value. NY Mag
Mel Gibson angers right by casting pro-abortion actress as Virgin Mary: The Times reports Kasia Smutniak, who supported protests for women’s rights in Poland, will star in the actor-turned-director’s film The Resurrection of the Christ.
On a terrace in Milan, a gathering of creative
expats: Having adopted the Italian city as her home, the German-born fashion designer Tina Lutz Morris threw a housewarming party filled with others who’ve done the same. NYT Mag
MAGA singles are looking for love in Washington. It’s a challenge. The politics of trying to find a partner in an overwhelmingly liberal city can be tricky: “My partner can’t think I’m a fascist. That’s crazy.” WP
Why I run: I took up the sport to be like my father. I kept going because he stopped. Nicholas Thompson
‘Every Day Is Sunday’ review: How football got huge: The NFL went from being a major pro sports league to something even bigger—the commercial titan it is today. WSJ
Belichick who? Hug-loving coach and quarterback phenom have patriots rolling again: First year boss Mike Vrabel has New England off to a 6-2 start. But the revelation is second year passer (and growing MVP candidate) Drake Maye. Jason Gay
TA: Fox to broadcast a record 69 matches in the 2026 World Cup
'I would like to be there' – Lionel Messi on if he will play at the 2026 World Cup: BAT reports national team captain says in an interview with NBC news that he wants to play in the World Cup but will decide in early 2026.
With college soccer ‘at risk,’ US Soccer pushes for overhaul – but not without resistance: TA reports a US Soccer-led committee is pushing college soccer toward a new competitive model that could override current conferences, introduce an element of promotion and relegation, and extend the college season from late summer through the spring. In a white paper released Thursday, the committee of college administrators, pro soccer executives, corporate partners, and others recommended this revolutionary model for men’s college soccer.
+ Access the paper "Ensuring College Soccer Thrives in the Modern Era of College Athletics and the Changing US Soccer Landscape" here.
Backers with £1.5bn-plus and need for control: Christian Horner’s next move: Sacked Red Bull chief has been linked to Ferrari, but wants security of ownership and has investors who could help him buy an F1 team or even set up a new one. The Times
Trump’s granddaughter to make LPGA debut in £2.45m event: Telegraph reports Kai Trump receives sponsor exemption to play in The Annika next month, which has one of the strongest fields outside the majors.
Trump's granddaughter set to play in LPGA event: AFP reports US President Donald Trump's granddaughter Kai Trump is poised to make her LPGA Tour debut after receiving a sponsor invitation on Tuesday to the November 13-16 tournament at Pelican Golf Club in Florida.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 28
The theory behind Trump’s gunboat diplomacy: Venezuela has become Trump’s test of hemispheric reengineering. Politico
Trump’s pivot to the Americas: Renewed focus on Latin America is a welcome shift—but only if it truly advances US interests. Leon Hadar
Miami Herald: Venezuela claims capture of CIA group, accuses US of plotting ‘false flag’ attack
Venezuela ‘captures CIA operatives’: Telegraph reports Nicolas Maduro claims group of mercenaries were carrying out a ‘false flag operation.’
Venezuela claims CIA 'false flag' attack foiled, as US deploys bombers: AFP reports Venezuela claimed Monday to have dismantled a CIA-financed cell plotting a false-flag attack on a US warship deployed to the southern Caribbean, as Washington stepped up pressure on Caracas by flying bombers nearby.
+ Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): “If I was Maduro, I'd head to Russia or China right now. His days are numbered. Something is going to happen.”
AP: US warship docks in Trinidad and Tobago, putting more pressure on Venezuela
The meaning of America’s vast military build-up off Venezuela: The world’s largest aircraft-carrier is making for the Venezuelan coast. Its military aims are unclear. Economist
Trump is circling Maduro. This points to a dark history. The White House is ratcheting up military pressure on Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Max Boot
Trump is planning to invade Venezuela. We ought to thank him: If the United States is again engaging positively in world affairs, the rest of us should applaud. Daniel Hannan
The real reason Trump is preparing for war with Venezuela: Aim of new campaign against cartels is, in part, to rid America’s backyard of Chinese influence. Telegraph
Hurricane Melissa collides with US military mission in Caribbean: WP reports President Donald Trump’s military campaign against drug cartels in Latin America could soon reckon with a natural disaster and humanitarian crisis in the region.
Hurricane Melissa tracker: Mapping Jamaica’s category 5 storm: The Times reports the hurricane is expected to bring two and a half metres of rain and winds of 160mph.
Jamaica orders evacuation of capital as major hurricane approaches: Telegraph reports Hurricane Melissa has already killed people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
AI-generated fakes proliferate as Hurricane Melissa nears Jamaica: AFP reports AI-generated videos were clogging social media feeds Monday as Hurricane Melissa surged toward Jamaica, diverting attention from critical safety information about the massive Category 5 storm.
Bloomberg: Milei’s party wins Argentina midterm vote in major comeback
Milei’s clear-cut victory unlocks a Wall Street windfall: WSJ reports the win for Argentine President Javier Milei’s party is rewarding investors who bet on the country.
Javier Milei has won a fresh mandate to remake Argentina: A thumping win for his party in the midterms means his radical economic project gains new strength. Economist
Argentina's President Milei says he will seek consensus for new reform push: BAT reports in first interview since his stunning win in Sunday’s midterm elections, Argentina’s President Javier Milei says he will look to achieve labour and tax reforms, followed by changes to the pension system.
After US bailout, Argentine voters give Milei a friendlier Congress: WP reports the vote in Sunday’s midterms came as the United States finalized an up to $40 billion bailout package for Argentina, an effort to boost President Javier Milei.
Argentine bonds and currency surge after victory for Javier Milei’s party: FT reports investors bet that electoral endorsement will keep president’s market-friendly reforms on track.
Milei’s moment? Election triumph hands libertarian shot at reform: Firebrand economist must build alliances to push through structural change in Argentina, analysts say. FT
Argentina’s Milei gets a second wind: After his coalition’s election victory, will he try more durable monetary reform? WSJ-Editorial
Milei’s big win opens a rare window for Argentina Juan Pablo Spinetto
Argentina’s landslide election should be good news to American ears: Voters just delivered a free-market mandate. WP-Editorial
Trump projects peacemaker image at Cambodia-Thailand deal ceremony: WP reports President Donald Trump kicked off his Asia trip in Malaysia by dancing on the tarmac before signing an agreement that formalizes a Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire.
As Trump tours Asia, democracy’s ideals aren’t on the agenda: The durability of the American experiment has been tested in the nine months since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with institutions from Congress to the judiciary struggling or declining to check his aggressive attempts to flout the law and expand his power. Straits Times
Asia gets the Trump treatment: After meeting leaders in Japan and South Korea, the president has a summit with Xi. Walter Russell Mead
Japan woos Trump with a royal welcome: WP reports meeting with emperor, though short on pomp, aims to warm up president at start of visit.
Donald Trump hails ‘great friendship’ with Japan: FT reports US president’s talks with new prime minister Sanae Takaichi expected to focus on trade and security.
Japan’s new PM Takaichi has an advantage in winning over Trump: Straits Times reports that when Ms Takaichi holds talks with Mr Trump in Tokyo on Oct 28, she will have another card to play as she tries to win reassurance from him on trade and security. She is expected to emphasise her connection to Mr Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister assassinated in 2022, who was Ms Takaichi’s political mentor and who forged a closer bond with Mr Trump than perhaps any other world leader.
Japan’s new prime minister has two excellent models for Trump summit: Sanae Takaichi would do well to channel Shinzo Abe and Margaret Thatcher in her US dealings. Kurt Campbell
For Japan's new leader, the key to connecting with Trump could be a Ford F-150 truck AP
Trapped between US and China, South Korea feels trade war’s pressure: A preliminary tariff deal with President Trump called for a large investment in the United States, while China has warned Seoul not to side with Washington. NYT
Trump open to extending Asia trip to meet with Kim Jong Un: WP reports the president said it would be “pretty easy” to meet with the North Korean leader on his Asia tour, but White House officials have downplayed the likelihood.
Is the US losing in Vietnam? Russia, North Korea, and China are gaining. US allies worry that American volatility and Russian outreach and arms sales, in particular, are driving Vietnam into a new phase. NYT
Two US Navy aircraft from same carrier crash into South China Sea: WSJ reports Trump calls incidents ‘highly unusual’ and suggests fuel problem as possible cause.
China deepens ties with ASEAN ahead of Xi-Trump talks: Beijing to sign enhanced trade deal with bloc at Kuala Lumpur summit. Nikkei
Trump’s China deal may avert a crisis of his own making: The Trump administration is hailing a potential deal that may return the US-China relationship to where it was before the president began a trade war against Beijing. NYT
Xi gives Trump a Taiwan test: China’s president wants the US to oppose the democratic island’s independence. WSJ-Editorial
Trump, Xi, and the danger for Taiwan: The US president has unnerved Taiwan. But the island can still resist Beijing. Gideon Rachman
Taiwan's 'southbound' strategy hits headwinds in Southeast Asia: US tariffs and weaker returns test the island's companies that once fled China. Nikkei
Trump dangles prospect of Mar-a-Lago visit for Xi: Politico reports US president hints at reciprocal summits with Chinese leader next year as trade talks are revived.
Xi Jinping’s latest purge: Paranoid or purposeful? What the biggest military crackdown in decades says about his strength. Economist
China’s secret stockpiles have been a great success—so far: Xi Jinping is desperate for Trump-proof access to food, fuels, and metals. Economist
Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s top diplomat during her visit to Moscow as the two countries continue to deepen their military cooperation.
Reuters: Russia tested new nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile
Reuters: Trump says Putin should end the Ukraine war, not test missiles
Trump rebukes Putin for testing new missiles, tells him to end the war: WP reports Russia tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile that it said is capable of traveling thousands of miles. Trump countered that there is a US nuclear submarine off Russia’s coast.
Russia ramps up its military offensive in eastern Ukraine: FT reports the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk comes under heavy fire as Russian troops enter city.
The conscripts preparing to resist Russia on Finland’s frigid border: On the frontier with Russia, the ‘iPhone and PlayStation generation’ is being trained to expect the worst since the invasion of Ukraine. The Times
Lithuania closes its border with Belarus: Le Monde reports the Baltic state condemned a violation of its airspace after dozens of helium-filled balloons launched from Belarus forced Vilnius Airport to close four times in recent days.
Lukoil, a Russian oil giant, announced it would sell its international operations following American sanctions, and said it was fielding bids from potential buyers.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he’ll meet US President Donald Trump to try to shield Hungary from the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil.
London’s sad decline is a warning to New Yorkers: In three terms as mayor, Sadiq Khan has crushed the economic life out of Britain’s capital. Matthew Lynn
European industry caught in crossfire of China's rare earths war: Le Monde reports Western technology sectors, including automotive, defense, aerospace, energy, and chemicals, have raised the alarm over Beijing's new restrictions on the export of these strategic minerals.
Amsterdam turns 750.
AP: Sudan’s paramilitary forces overrun the army’s last stronghold in the Darfur region
Sudan’s paramilitary forces seize el-Fasher, army’s last Darfur stronghold: Le Monde reports military chief General Abdel-Fattah Burhan said on Monday that military officers decided to withdraw from the city entirely in hopes of sparing the civilian population from further violence. Medical groups reported dozens of civilians killed.
BNP Paribas confronts its past over Sudan sanctions breach: A jury told the bank to pay millions to victims of the country’s genocidal regime, but it vows to fight back. FT
Brazil: Ex-leader Bolsonaro appeals 27-year prison sentence: DW reports former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was found guilty of plotting a military coup in September. He has always maintained his innocence.
G+M: Trump agrees to an extension with Mexico for trade talks, Sheinbaum says
US gives Mexico more time to meet demands to avoid tariffs: NYT reports taxes on goods from Mexico had been set to go into effect at the end of the week.
G+M: Carney says he will meet Chinese President Xi at APEC summit
Canada's Carney 'ready' to resume US trade talks, Trump says won't meet 'for a while': Le Monde reports after a week of heightened tensions between the two neighboring countries regarding tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney opened the door to renewed trade talks with the US.
Carney saw Reagan anti-tariff ad before it aired, Ford says: G+M reports Ontario Premier calls it ‘the most successful ad in the history of North America.’
Bloomberg: Ontario premier says he’s not sorry for ad that blew up trade talks
+ “You know why President Trump is so upset right now? It was because it was effective. It was working. It woke up the whole country,” Ford said.
Doug Ford has no regrets about ‘viral’ Reagan ad that angered Donald Trump: While Ontario has paused the $75 million campaign after Ford spoke with Prime Minister Mark Carney, the premier insisted Monday it was effective. Toronto Star
Canada vs. the US: The World Series has taken on symbolic significance amid worsening relations between the two countries. Kelly Candaele
How Trump pressures the world into burning more oil and gas: As COP30 nears, the US’s pressure to keep fossil fuels relevant may empower petrostates, potentially giving them more leverage at the UN talks. Bloomberg
Largest federal workers union calls for an end to the shutdown, putting pressure on Democrats: In a statement first shared with NBC News, the American Federation of Government Employees' president calls on Congress to pass a "clean continuing resolution."
Largest federal workers union calls for ‘clean’ bill to end shutdown: WP reports the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents more than 800,000 federal and DC government workers, said the shutdown is punishing the very people who keep the country running.
CNN: Democrats unflinching in shutdown strategy, blaming Trump with millions at risk of losing food aid
Bloomberg: Staffers feel shutdown pinch as House paycheck day approaches
The shutdown is a knife at a gunfight: The two sides may forge a deal, but what difference will it make to a president who doesn’t respect Congress at all? David Frum
Shutdown challenges Republicans’ vow to never end the filibuster: WSJ reports GOP senators gave their word to protect the 60-vote rule. ‘I’m praying to God they keep it,’ says former Sen. Joe Manchin.
Trump asks Supreme Court to let him fire the top copyright official: NYT reports an appeals court sided with the director of the US Copyright Office, saying her role is to work with Congress.
Americans caught between Trump's cruelty and Democrats' chaos: In a new focus group of 55 swing voters and a national survey of 800 general election voters and 516 voters in battleground House districts, both conducted with Normington Petts, we found an electorate caught between two unsatisfying extremes: the cruelty of Trump’s policies and the perception that Democrats can’t maintain order at the border. This research builds on our March poll and takes a closer look at how Americans view the One Big Beautiful Bill’s immigration provisions—and what messages best equip Democrats to push back. Sarah Pierce + Lanae Erickson
How Mamdani’s Brooklyn became the heart of the Democrats’ civil war: Progressives have turned the New York City borough into a battleground between the center and left wings of the party. WSJ
Zohran Mamdani leads New York mayoral race, rattling Democratic establishment: A week before the vote, the self-proclaimed socialist leads the polls after a savvy campaign on the cost of living. But his stance to the left of the party unsettles even his own camp, while questions linger over the funding of his social platform. Le Monde
Indiana Republicans call special session to redraw Congressional map: WSJ reports Republican and Democratic legislatures are hoping to tilt the US House their way in redistricting war.
MI-GOV: Republican US Rep. John James and Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson led the two major parties' primary fields for governor in fundraising over the last three months, according to disclosures due Monday.
Trump: I would love to run for third term: Telegraph reports Donald Trump suggested JD Vance and Marco Rubio could run for president in 2028 but did not rule himself out of the race. Teasing the possibility of an unprecedented third term, Trump said he would “love to” run again. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One en route to Japan during his tour of Asia, Trump said: “I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”
Trump says a recent MRI scan was ‘perfect,’ and he’d ‘love’ a third term: NYT reports President Trump made the comments on the second day of his trip to Asia. The Constitution limits presidents to two terms, but Mr. Trump has suggested he might try to circumvent it.
Karine Jean-Pierre feels that Democrats were so mean to Biden that she is becoming an Independent.
‘CBS Evening News’ co-anchor John Dickerson leaving network: WSJ reports the 16-year CBS veteran is to step down at the end of the year.
Anxious and disillusioned: Being young in Trump’s America: Students in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania — where the FT is reporting over the next four years — reflect the angst of peers across the US. FT
Reuters: Fed poised to cut rates this week, with more easing likely on tap
America’s hottest new investment: Rare-earth companies: WSJ reports US and private financiers pour money into critical minerals, believing China won’t ever be a reliable supplier again.
Toyota to make hybrids in Vietnam, betting their time has come: Nikkei reports Japanese automaker to invest $360m to boost capacity.
NextEra Energy plans to restart a nuclear power plant in Iowa, primarily to supply Google data centers.
Google agrees deal to reopen US nuclear plant with NextEra: FT reports Duane Arnold Energy Center expected to start delivering power in 2029.
Advanced Micro Devices is teaming up with the US Energy Department to develop a pair of supercomputers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory that will deploy the company’s artificial intelligence chips to seek breakthroughs in energy and scientific research.
Why big oil is missing out on the AI energy bonanza: A looming supply glut is weighing on giants from Exxon to Shell. Economist
Nvidia + Deutsche Telekom AG are preparing to announce plans for a €1 billion data center in Germany as part of a broader push to develop more infrastructure across Europe to power AI systems.
Qualcomm launches AI chips to challenge Nvidia’s dominance: WSJ reports shares in the semiconductor maker rose as much as 20% in Monday trading.
How artificial intelligence is transforming the defence industry: With the rise in hybrid threats and intimidating manœuvres from hostile powers, France has joined the race to develop intelligent weapons. From radars that use AI to exponentially increase their detection and reconnaissance capacities, to weapons with AI to help take decisions, to algorithms allowing for multiple drones and robots to operate together, the range of applications is wide, and the technology is developing at breakneck speed. AFP
Silicon Valley called — the 1990s are back: How today’s artificial intelligence boom is both different from, and similar to, what came before. Rana Foroohar
‘Do not trust your eyes’: AI generates surge in expense fraud: Business software groups warn that top AI models are increasingly being used to create ultra-realistic fake receipts. FT
The end of the rip-off economy: From finance and medicine to used cars, artificial intelligence is radically improving market efficiency. Economist
Meta moved its top metaverse executive to oversee AI products following hundreds of job cuts last week, a sign the company is still working to structure its teams even as it spends aggressively to compete in the heated artificial intelligence race.
Zuckerberg appoints former metaverse executive to boost AI efforts: FT reports Vishal Shah takes on key role after Meta AI video service Vibes overshadowed by OpenAI’s Sora.
JPMorgan offers staff AI chatbot to help write performance reviews: FT reports the move allows employees to use bank’s large language model to generate reviews from their own prompts.
Sequoia Capital invests in AI tool that could replace junior bankers: Rogo says its AI platform helps investment bankers work faster and smarter. Bloomberg
Amazon’s AWS shows signs of weakness as competitors charge ahead: Bloomberg reports that the company that invented the cloud business is widely perceived as trailing its rivals in artificial intelligence.
Amazon plans to cut corporate jobs in several key departments, including logistics, payments, video games, and the cloud-computing unit, according to people familiar with the matter. The terminations, expected as soon as Tuesday, could affect as many as 30,000 jobs, Reuters reported on Monday, citing sources.
Amazon to lay off up to 30,000 corporate workers: WSJ reports the job cuts would amount to roughly 10% of the online giant’s corporate workforce.
Elon Musk says AI research into ancient Rome will ‘rewrite history’: The Times reports the world’s richest man is financing a new age of archaeological projects that seek to use artificial intelligence to fill in knowledge gaps.
Elon Musk briefly launches a Wikipedia rival that extols his own vision: WP reports the right-leaning tech magnate is touting his own online encyclopedia as an unbiased alternative, but it went down after about an hour.
Wealthsimple hits $10-billion valuation milestone with $750-million financing: G+M reports online financial-services provider raises $750-million, becomes one of few Canadian tech companies to achieve milestone.
Delta Air Lines plans to start direct flights from Atlanta to Riyadh.
Domino’s Pizza shares soared after the Australian Financial Review reported that Bain Capital is considering buying the fast-food chain in a deal worth as much as A$4 billion ($2.6 billion).
‘Yellowstone’ creator Taylor Sheridan to leave Paramount for NBCUniversal: WSJ reports Sheridan’s hits for Paramount include ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Landman.’ In addition to TV shows, he will make movies for NBCUniversal.
Telegraph: Sydney Sweeney wants to be the next James Bond
The office is back: A top NYC developer on the future of cities: Gary Barnett looks ahead at new skyscrapers, the rise of automation—and why an IKEA makes sense in Midtown Manhattan. WSJ
The secrets to Hermès’s reign as one of the world’s most valuable companies: It’s not all about the Birkins. Inside the 188-year-old house that has become the most durable brand in luxury—and the most radical. WSJ
Amazon's Prime releases trailer for 'unprecedented' Paul McCartney documentary: AFP reports music legend Paul McCartney is adding another string to his bow in his long and winding career, with the announcement Monday of a new documentary about his life after the Beatles.
Daily steps more beneficial in ‘one long walk’ not shorter strolls: The Times reports early death and cardiovascular disease are significantly lower in people who go walking for longer than 15 minutes, a study shows.
Inside Brian Kelly's messy firing at LSU: How it all unraveled so quickly in Baton Rouge: How did Kelly's firing extend to Louisiana's governor? Who's footing the buyout bill? LSU's chaotic situation is a product of several problems. Yahoo
+ “It’s the most Louisiana thing ever that the governor is directly involved in a decision over a football coach,” said one LSU influencer.
All the college football coaches are getting fired: LSU’s Brian Kelly becomes the latest exile in a historic early season purge. He’ll reportedly get $50 million plus to walk away. Jason Gay
Vikings QB Carson Wentz to undergo shoulder surgery, will miss rest of season.
What goes into making the Toronto Blue Jays home run jacket: ‘It has to be put together piece by piece’: The celebratory garment is designed in-house and constructed by a fan whose own tribute jacket caught the team’s eye. Toronto Star
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal