*** Ross Rant ***
I predicted the Trump-Xi meeting would look like this. Now watch what happens next.
Markets don't lie. They don't care about Team Trump's narrative.
While Trump rated his meeting with Xi Jinping "12 on a scale of 1 to 10," markets delivered their own verdict: US stock futures barely moved. China's CSI 300 Index closed down 0.8%. That muted response tells you everything you need to know about what actually happened in those 90 minutes in Busan, South Korea.
The most telling aspect of the Trump-Xi meeting is the one-year timeframe. Both leaders are explicitly acknowledging that this truce is temporary. And markets, having seen this movie before, aren't buying the happy ending.
Ninety minutes to manage a superpower rivalry
Let's start with a number that should shock everyone: 90 minutes.
That's how long Trump and Xi met to address the world's most consequential economic relationship. Factor in translation, pleasantries, and opening remarks (Xi's comment that China's development goes "hand in hand with your vision to make America great again"), and you're looking at perhaps 45 minutes of substantive discussion.
Forty-five minutes to manage technology competition, rare-earth dependencies, trade imbalances, the future of the global economy, and China's "no limits" relationship with Russia.
The brevity isn't a talking point—it's the whole story.
This meeting wasn't a negotiation to resolve fundamental tensions. It was a carefully choreographed exercise in conflict management, with both sides achieving exactly what they needed while avoiding anything that might require actual structural change.
What China achieved
Here's where conventional analysis gets it wrong. Yes, China agreed to resume soybean purchases and suspend the draconian rare-earth export restrictions announced on October 9th. Team Trump's messaging and global news headlines framed these as concessions.
But look at what China extracted in return: US tariffs dropped from 57% to 47%. Technology export restrictions that were under consideration got postponed, not eliminated. Port fees on the Chinese maritime and logistics industries are suspended for a year. And most importantly, Beijing maintained the April licensing regime for rare earths—the opaque system that frustrates American manufacturers and keeps control firmly in Chinese hands.
Xi didn't surrender strategic advantages. He made tactical retreats while extracting meaningful US concessions on issues that matter more to China's long-term positioning.
The rare-earth gambit earlier this year—cutting off magnet exports, forcing US auto plant shutdowns, triggering bond market turbulence—was never just about leverage in one negotiation. It was a demonstration. Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize supply chains more aggressively than during Trump's first term. They watched Washington's reaction, gauged America's tolerance for pain, and concluded they could press harder.
The message was unmistakable: China has demonstrated its capacity to retaliate. Washington would do well to remember it.
TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out
Taiwan wasn't discussed. Neither were trade imbalances. Or Chinese industrial subsidies. Or intellectual property theft. Or the structural competition for technological supremacy that defines this rivalry.
I've worked on trade negotiations and global politics for two decades, and here's a pro-tip: what's excluded often matters more than what's included. These omissions weren't failures of diplomacy—they were conscious choices acknowledging that core conflicts remain unresolvable.
China hawks in Washington can be relieved that Trump didn't grant China access to Nvidia's flagship AI chips or soften the US commitment to Taiwan. But let's not pretend that avoiding disastrous outcomes is the same as achieving positive ones.
As Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously analyzed Chinese politics at the CIA, noted in a New York Times article: "I think it's an approach that can safely be described as tactics without a strategy." China, by contrast, has a clear long-term strategy—namely, its recently announced five-year plan, which focuses on state-directed manufacturing and technology investments.
What markets already know
The lack of market enthusiasm tells you sophisticated investors understand something the headlines miss: "We've heard this playbook before—optimistic tone, little follow-through."
Markets wanted a concrete joint statement. They wanted structural commitments. Instead, they got a handshake, diplomatic pleasantries, and a one-year timeframe that explicitly acknowledges the temporary nature of this truce.
Even after the 10-point tariff reduction, the effective US rate on Chinese goods remains above 40%—vastly higher than the roughly 3% historical norm. Calling this "normalization" requires selective amnesia about what normal actually looked like.
The CSI 300's 0.8% decline in closing is particularly revealing. Chinese investors, despite their government securing meaningful concessions, recognized that this doesn't change the fundamental trajectory. Strategic decoupling continues—just at a more managed pace.
Strategic decoupling
Let me be precise about terminology, because the distinction matters enormously.
We're not seeing full decoupling—the complete separation of the world's two largest economies. That would be economically catastrophic and politically unsustainable for both sides.
We're seeing strategic decoupling: the deliberate reduction of dependencies in areas deemed critical to national security and technological competitiveness. Semiconductors. Rare earths. AI. Quantum computing. Advanced manufacturing.
As Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital wrote in a note to clients: "Make no mistake, the two countries are drifting apart and are frantically building their own autonomous economic ecosystems."
The outcome from this meeting doesn't reverse that drift. It acknowledges it while establishing guardrails to prevent the drift from becoming a crash.
What this means for your business
If you're a CEO, supply chain executive, or board member, here's my direct advice: the tariff reductions and supply chain normalization are real and welcome. Use them. But don't mistake a one-year truce for a strategic realignment.
Three specific actions
First, accelerate supply chain diversification. China demonstrated in April that it will use economic weapons more aggressively. The rare-earth licensing regime remains in place. American companies are already continuing to seek non-Chinese sources despite this deal. Follow their lead.
Second, the price of volatility returns within 12 months. The one-year timeframe isn't arbitrary—it's both sides buying time to reduce strategic dependencies. When this expires in late 2026, the landscape will be different because both sides will have used the time strategically. Trump's mercurial nature and America's 2026 midterm elections add additional unpredictability.
Third, watch actions over words. Does China actually place large-scale soybean orders, or is this another promise that fades? Do rare-earth exports genuinely normalize, or does the licensing regime continue creating bottlenecks? Does the US truly pause new technology restrictions? The implementation phase will reveal whether this has substance.
The 90-day test
Here are the specific signals I'm watching:
Within 90 days, will China follow through on its agricultural purchases and the US genuinely pause its planned tech restrictions, which suggests that both sides are committed to making this work—at least temporarily?
In April 2026, Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing. If this actually happens (and if Xi's reciprocal visit to Washington occurs), it creates diplomatic momentum harder to reverse than ad-hoc summits. State visits require comprehensive preparation, meticulous protocol, and significant political capital. Additionally, the American business community will have an extensive list of issues and pressure points to address to secure more Chinese market access.
The immediate aftermath saw Trump jet back to Washington for a Halloween party. Xi stayed in South Korea for the full APEC summit, engaging regional leaders. The optics matter: China positioning itself as the stable, reliable partner versus American transactional unpredictability. If Asian economies hedge away from US alignment, that's a strategic victory no tariff rollback can offset.
The reality check
Both leaders got what they needed, and they are both political athletes.
Trump secured visible wins to sell domestically—such as tariff reductions, soybean purchases, and cooperation on fentanyl. His "12 on a scale of 1 to 10" assessment reflects genuine satisfaction with the optics.
Xi achieved something more valuable: time and strategic positioning. Time to pursue semiconductor self-sufficiency. Space to focus on domestic economic challenges without external pressure. Control of critical supply chains despite tactical easing. And a framework for formal state visits that signals great power parity.
But for global businesses caught between these superpowers, the ugly reality persists: underlying conflicts remain unaddressed. Commerce will be rocky for years to come.
The fundamentals haven't changed. This remains the world's most complex, competitive relationship. What changed in Busan isn't the destination—it's the agreement to make the journey less chaotic for the next twelve months.
Markets understood this immediately. The sophisticated response wasn't pessimism—it was realism about what a 90-minute meeting can and cannot accomplish.
Bottom line
The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan succeeded at precisely what it was designed to do: establish guardrails for managed rivalry while avoiding mutually assured economic destruction. That's valuable in a relationship where the global economy, regional security, and technological leadership are serious issues.
But let's not confuse conflict management with conflict resolution. The technology competition continues. The trade imbalance persists. Taiwan remains unaddressed. China's support of Russia continues unchecked. Strategic decoupling accelerates.
The smart money is positioning for a world where these economies remain locked in long-term competition with just enough dialogue to prevent a crisis. That's the world we're navigating.
Markets called it correctly on day one. Everything else is just narrative, spin, and messaging.
-Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
Trump wants to restart nuclear testing: Trump made his comments after Russia conducted tests of nuclear-capable weapons, including its new Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon super torpedo.
Trump directs Pentagon to test nuclear weapons for first time since 1992: WP reports the president said he wanted testing to occur “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The Kremlin condemned the US move, and there was no indication of when tests might take place.
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Trump and Xi agree to a one-year trade truce — but key details remain unclear: Politico reports Beijing is pledging to buy soybeans, delay rare-earth export controls, and curb fentanyl — but questions remain over what the US gave up in return.
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Bloomberg: Trump-Xi truce buys time in broader fight for dominance and leverage
US and China agree one-year trade truce after Donald Trump-Xi Jinping talks: FT reports leaders agree to postpone export restrictions on rare earths and semiconductors after South Korea summit.
Straits Times: ‘Amazing’ Trump-Xi talks produce a pause in US-China trade war
Straits Times: US, China seal deal on rare earths; Trump says Xi meeting was a 12 on scale of 1 to 10
Trump-Xi meeting brings temporary lull to escalation between US and China: Le Monde reports that, for the first time since 2019, the American and Chinese presidents met in South Korea, amid threats that the US might resume nuclear testing. The meeting resulted in agreements on tariffs, rare earths, soybeans, and fentanyl.
The US-China trade truce is not ‘truly great’ Robert Burgess
Trump cuts tariffs on China after ‘truly great’ meeting with Xi: WP reports China’s leader agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth minerals for a year and buy more soybeans, Trump said after a meeting designed to calm trade tensions.
Pragmatism wins out over bluster as Trump meets President Xi: After six months of brinkmanship, the US president’s meeting put trade relations with China back to where they were before all the theatrics. The Times
US-China truce brings little peace for businesses caught in superpower standoff: WSJ reports tariffs remain historically high and Beijing keeps a strict regimen for critical mineral exports.
With China truce, US national security controls now appear up for negotiation: Some analysts say Beijing won a major victory in its trade talks: Getting the US to withdraw a national security measure that previously was not under discussion. NYT
Trump and Xi flexed. Who won? The leaders share an affinity for great-power-style foreign policy. That’s working — for now. David Ignatius
Donald Trump’s learning that China is harder to crack: Although the US president described his meeting with Xi as amazing, it’s clear the nations are fighting a second Cold War. Gerard Baker
What Trump’s ‘12’ of a summit with Xi yielded: The trade war truce is welcome — and buys the US time. WP-Editorial
Profiles in weakness at the Trump-Xi meeting: While most people regard the Sino-American rivalry as a new cold war between two world-bestriding giants, the truth is that both countries are tightly constrained. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping each sense the other side's vulnerabilities, which means they cannot hide their own. Harold James
The art of letting Trump claim a win, while walking away stronger: NYT reports that by withholding soybean purchases and rare-earth exports, China extracted relief from US tariffs and delayed export controls, without conceding much in return.
Bloomberg: China says it will work with the US on resolving TikTok issue
US-China dysfunction overshadows APEC summit: DW reports that for decades, APEC has helped integrate economies along the Pacific Rim. But on-again, off-again tariff escalation between the world's largest economies means more uncertainty and less room for cooperation.
Beef and thousand island dressing: Trump’s food tour of Asia: NYT reports the menus on the president’s tour of three countries in Asia reflected the culinary acrobatics the host nations performed to accommodate his palate and foreign policy goals.
Prince Andrew to be stripped of his royal title: NYT reports the extraordinary move caps his fall from grace over his ties to the convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.
Prince Andrew stripped of royal title by King Charles: WSJ reports Andrew’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, new revelations about longstanding abuse allegations force the king’s hand.
King Charles III strips brother Andrew of prince title over Epstein scandal: WP reports the move marks the latest setback for the embattled royal as the scandal over his ties to the convicted American sex offender Jeffrey Epstein continues to cast a long shadow.
Andrew stripped of ‘prince’ title and will leave Royal Lodge: The Times reports the disgraced former Duke of York will be known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Buckingham Palace has announced.
Zelensky is winning Trump voters over: Polling shows Ukraine re-emerging as a Republican priority. Steven Moore + Colby Barrett
Why funding Ukraine is a giant opportunity for Europe: The bill will be huge. It is also a historic bargain. Economist
Tunisia's government clamps down on civil society: Le Monde reports the authorities have suspended two of the country's most high-profile organizations. Dozens more are under investigation, accused of receiving foreign funding. President Kais Saied's increasingly repressive regime is unleashing an unprecedented crackdown against civil society.
Al Qaeda is on the brink of taking over a country: WSJ reports the US has warned American citizens to leave Mali immediately.
Sudan: In el-Fasher, 'we are witnessing mass atrocities through our screens': Le Monde reports massacres, which have been filmed and shared on social media, have taken place in the capital of North Darfur since the city was seized by the Rapid Support Forces, led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo.
AFP: UN security council condemns El-Fasher 'atrocities' in Sudan as RSF advances
Tanzania seeks to restore calm after election unrest: DW reports the Tanzanian government deployed the military and ordered a curfew in its largest city after violence broke out on election day. Can the government reclaim Tanzania's image as a peaceful, stable nation?
Madagascar's new government faces scrutiny from Gen Z: Le Monde reports that President Michaël Randrianirina announced the 28 members of the government on Tuesday, October 28. Opposition leaders to the ousted regime, newcomers, and technocrats now have 60 days to deliver results.
A bloody police raid in Rio was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: Brazil’s conservatives are keener on such raids than its left-wing government. Economist
Cocaine worth $1.8 billion seized in Brazil risks angering Trump: Bloomberg reports drug trafficking on oil and soy vessels is surging as industrialization transforms the once-remote region.
Milei aims to speed up reform drive after election victory: BAT reports President Javier Milei is preparing to forge ahead with a second wave of reforms, targeting the labour market, taxation system, and pensions. But first, he will have to open dialogue with leaders in what he says will be the “most reformist Congress” in history.
Argentina backs US embargo on Cuba, breaking with decades of policy: BAT reports United Nations vote marks a diplomatic turn from historic position and distances Argentina from broad international consensus opposing Washington’s sanctions.
Carney to meet with Xi as he seeks to offset damage from US tariffs: G+M reports Friday’s meeting at the APEC summit could prove consequential for both countries.
'Non-interventionist' Trump flexes muscles in Latin America: BAT reports US president has intervened directly to weaken leftists in Colombia and Brazil, while supporting Argentina. He has also put Washington on a war footing in the Caribbean, raising speculation he will forcefully depose Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
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Democrats condemn Trump administration for secrecy on boat strikes: NYT reports Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) said the administration’s decision to hold a Republicans-only briefing on the campaign was “corrosive to our democracy.”
Politico: Rubio says White House is ready to help fund Cuba’s hurricane recovery
Politico: Senate rejects Trump’s global tariffs, the final vote in a series of rebukes
+ Once again, four Republicans joined with Democrats to approve a resolution condemning a signature part of the president’s agenda.
Farm-state Republicans finally reach their breaking point: Politico reports President Donald Trump's plan to import beef from Argentina has unleashed a wave of protest from GOP loyalists.
On tariffs, the Supreme Court can’t do what Congress won’t: The forthcoming ruling on Trump’s import duties will not stop him resorting to other methods. Alan Beattie
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The shutdown pressure cooker: A month in to the federal government’s closure, temperatures are rising for both sides—and something may be about to give. Kimberley A. Strassel
CNN: ‘The stress is just always there,’ as thousands of FAA workers go without paycheck
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Pentagon readying thousands of Guard ‘reaction forces’ as US mission widens: WP reports up to 23,500 service members are being readied and trained for civil unrest missions in US cities.
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Newsom turns a California election into a national platform: Gov. Gavin Newsom has attracted support for his redistricting ballot measure from voters outside of California. He could reap the benefits for a 2028 presidential run. NYT
Newsom’s redistricting campaign unlocks a new donor army ahead of 2028: Politico reports the ballot initiative has brought in far more donors from across the nation than the governor's statewide campaigns.
Bloomberg: Gretchen Whitmer won’t ‘rule out’ 2028 Democratic presidential bid
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NYC-MAYOR: A new Marist Poll in New York City finds Zohran Mamdani leading the mayor’s race with 48%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 32% and Curtis Sliwa at 16%.
New York’s golden handcuffs: Why the city has a special hold on the rich: Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins the mayorship. Bloomberg
NJ-GOV: A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Mikie Sherrill (D) leading Jack Ciattarelli (R) in the governor’s race, 51% to 43%.
NY-GOV: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) has built out an extensive political team as she prepares to launch a 2026 campaign for New York governor in November, Axios reports.
‘The View’ sets Marjorie Taylor Greene as guest after co-hosts call for more Republicans on the show: The Wrap reports the Republican congresswoman will visit the ABC talk show on Tuesday.
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The risky movement to make America nuclear again: A Silicon Valley startup called Oklo is leading the charge to bring nuclear power back to the US with small reactors. Its backers have wealth and political connections that could undermine nuclear safety. Bloomberg
Google v Microsoft: The battle of AI business models: The search giant’s vertically integrated approach is beginning to pay off. Economist
AI spending is helping prop up the economy. Now it’s getting stronger. WP reports Google, Meta, and Microsoft will invest billions more on infrastructure, including data centers, expanding a boom that is driving US economic growth.
Saudi Arabia chases AI ambitions with homegrown firm pitched to global investors: AFP reports powered by its sovereign wealth fund of nearly $1 trillion, Saudi Arabia is backing its new AI firm Humain, entering a highly competitive sector some fear is a bubble ready to burst.
In the AI boom, not all capex is created equal: There are big differences in the level of risk and likely returns of Big Tech’s spending. Richard Waters
Detroit News: Massive OpenAI data center planned for farmland near Ann Arbor
+ Developer Related Companies has agreed to build a more than $7 billion data-center campus on farmland outside Detroit, one of the largest deals yet for this burgeoning real estate class that powers AI.
OpenAI’s chairman is thinking a lot about bubbles right now: Bret Taylor, who helped shape Google and Facebook and now runs a $10 billion AI customer service startup, thinks Silicon Valley will be just fine. Bloomberg
Delaware attorney-general warns of legal action if OpenAI fails to act in public interest: Sam Altman’s concessions to win approval from US officials expose his company to litigation and non-profit oversight. FT
It’s time to build the intention economy online: Tim Berners-Lee believes AI offers a chance to reset to a system that serves individuals’ needs and privacy. John Thornhill
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Amazon shares surge as AI boom drives cloud growth: AFP reports Amazon's share price skyrocketed by more than ten percent on Thursday after the online retail behemoth reported better than expected earnings, powered by surging demand for its cloud computing services.
Amazon rebounds as AI demand powers bumper cloud unit sales: FT reports shares jump after ecommerce giant says web services division is growing at fastest pace in three years.
Apple’s iPhones fuel record sales and profit: NYT reports the company’s revenue rose to above $100 billion in the quarter for the first time, and profit soared 86 percent.
Apple predicts holiday boom in iPhone sales: FT reports the tech giant reports record annual profits as smartphone sales and services income pick up.
Airbnb has shaped the idea that everything can be monetized. It's a logic of constant optimization: In Paris, about one-third of the listings available on Airbnb have been removed from the 'permanent' housing market, which contributes to the housing crisis in the French capital. Le Monde
Porsche’s warning lights are flashing: The carmaker’s new CEO will confront three big challenges. Economist
Bloomberg: MTV pays ‘Ridiculousness’ star Rob Dyrdek at least $32 million a year
+ Rob Dyrdek's show Ridiculousness is set to air for 12 straight hours on Friday, with episodes spanning season seven to 45.
+ MTV pays Dyrdek at least $32.5 million a year for its typical 336-episode-per-year slate, according to court documents.
+ Dyrdek's pay includes bonuses, a $21,000-per-episode executive producer fee, and an escalating $61,000-per-episode on-camera fee, which could rise to as much as $101,000 near the end of the current agreement.
France arrests five new suspects in Louvre heist probe, says prosecutor: Le Monde reports the five detentions took place on Wednesday in and around Paris, particularly in Seine-Saint-Denis, a department just outside the French capital.
Delevingne sisters face wrath of champagne makers over prosecco ads: The Times reports all champagne is sparkling wine, but not all sparkling wine is champagne, as any connoisseur will tell you. The champagne industry body has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Della Vite Prosecco, founded by the celebrity sisters Cara, Poppy, and Chloe Delevingne, over their marketing campaign for their vegan prosecco, which it claims is “exploiting” the reputation of champagne.
Michigan's 10-cent beverage bottle and can deposit program is on the decline. Here's why. Detroit Free Press
Bloomberg: Shift in drinking habits wipes $830 billion off alcohol stocks
+ Shares of the world’s top listed beer, wine, and spirits makers have shed a combined $830 billion in a little more than four years as the industry grapples with monumental change.
+ Shifting drinking patterns and rising health concerns have hit earnings, compounded by US tariffs, the impact of buoyant interest rates on consumer spending, and even elevated commodity prices.
+ The result is a wave of pressure facing companies behind some of the world’s most popular drinks that has left them adrift from the record rally in global equities.
Alison Roman built the grocery store of her dreams. We went to see it. First Bloom has homemade broth, a wall of pasta, and Haribo gummies. You have to plan a Catskills road trip to get there. WP
Is VistaVision really worth the hassle? These ambitious filmmakers think so. Paul Thomas Anderson and Yorgos Lanthimos are among those reviving a lush, wide-screen format that died more than 60 years ago. WP
Beyond words: '67' crowned 'word of the year': AFP reports a double-digit combination set the social media sphere ablaze among teens in 2025, leaving parents and teachers befuddled -- and now it has officially been crowned Dictionary.com's "Word of the Year": 67.
Toronto Star: Blue Jays one win away from World Series title
The Dodgers pledged to ‘ruin’ the World Series. Now they’re one game from losing it. They have a $350 million payroll, the world’s best player, crazy depth, and are frequently condemned for “ruining” baseball. But if you can’t hit the baseball, you’re in trouble. Jason Gay
LSU needs a new football coach. The governor wants Trump to make the pick. WSJ reports in an address from the Louisiana state capitol, Gov. Jeff Landry asked for the president’s help in solving a statewide emergency: finding a new head coach for the Tigers.
Detroit Free Press: Kelvin Sheppard to LSU? Detroit Lions DC asked about interest in coaching at alma mater
It’s the best offense in the NFL—and nobody saw it coming: When the Indianapolis Colts signed Daniel Jones as quarterback, no one was expecting fireworks. But somehow they have combined to form the most efficient offense of the 21st century. WSJ
Detroit News: Aidan Hutchinson 'super grateful' for extension, ready to make Super Bowl push with Lions
How sports gambling took over prediction markets in the US: Open interest in Kalshi sports contracts has surged past any other category as lawsuits threaten operations. FT
Betting scandal involving referees rocks Turkish football: DW reports Turkish football has been hit by a major betting scandal. More than 150 referees are accused of betting on matches — including officials from the top-flight Super Lig.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 30
*** Ross Rant ***
Why the Trump-Xi "trade truce" is a Trump-Xi "victory"
The headlines will call it a breakthrough. Markets will rally. Both presidents will claim victory.
But here's what I learned preparing for my appearance on CGTN's Global Business program: the real story of the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea, isn't about who won or lost. It's about two leaders who've finally agreed on something fundamental—how to disagree without destroying the global economy.
After US tariffs spiked to 145% and Chinese rare-earth exports ground to a halt, both sides discovered an uncomfortable truth: neither can afford the costs of unbridled confrontation. This isn't a partnership. It's not even cooperation. It's something more pragmatic and potentially more durable—managed rivalry with guardrails.
The theater of US-China Relations
One of the best lenses for understanding the US-China relationship comes from an unexpected source: Christopher Buckley's satirical novel, They Eat Puppies, Don't They? Published in 2012, the book lampoons Washington's establishment and the complex, often cynical nature of US-China relations through the story of a defense contractor lobbyist working to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment to boost weapons sales artificially.
Buckley's insight—that belligerent public discourse is often driven by self-serving interests of politicians, defense contractors, and think tanks rather than genuine geopolitical conflict—feels even more prescient today than it did thirteen years ago. The novel captures something essential: much of the animosity in US-China relations is rooted in theatrical antics and paranoid maneuvering rather than unavoidable geopolitical forces.
Which brings us back to Busan and what's really happening beneath the surface.
The asymmetry everyone missed
The conventional wisdom frames this as a reset, rewinding the clock to early 2025 before tensions escalated. That's technically accurate but strategically misleading.
Trump and Xi aren't playing the same game. They're not even playing on the same timeline.
Trump measures success in headlines and market reactions. He's the ultimate day trader. He needs visible wins: tariffs coming down from 145% to around 45%, China repurchasing American soybeans, and movement on fentanyl precursor chemicals. These are tangible, marketable achievements he can sell domestically. The three- to four-hour meeting gets him back to Washington with a deal to announce.
Xi measures success in decades—or at least that's what Beijing wants the West to believe. What Xi's buying with tactical concessions—soybean purchases, easing rare-earth controls—is far more valuable than what he's giving up. He's buying time.
Time to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency. Time to focus on domestic economic challenges while reducing external pressure. Time to pursue his five-year growth strategy centered on state-directed manufacturing and technology investments. And perhaps most importantly, he's securing something Beijing hasn't had since 2015: a formal state visit to Washington with all the symbolism and prestige that entails.
What China's rare-earth gambit revealed
Here's a data point that should worry every global business leader and multinational board member betting on stability: When China cut off exports of rare-earth magnets in April 2025, US automobile factories shut down, bond markets went into a tailspin, and stocks plummeted.
Beijing's message was unmistakable—and new. During Trump's first term, China's retaliation was measured and proportional. This time, Xi's playbook is different. His team spent the period after Trump's 2024 election victory designing an approach rooted in a simple insight: Trump is transactional, not ideological.
The rare-earth cutoff wasn't just about leverage in trade negotiations. It was a demonstration that China is willing to weaponize economic interdependence more aggressively than before. They watched Wall Street's reaction, gauged America's pain tolerance, and concluded they could press harder.
Yes, China eventually eased the restrictions. But they kept control of the supply chain. That's the pattern we're seeing in Busan: tactical retreats that don't surrender strategic advantages.
The real scorecard: What's not on the table
I've analyzed trade negotiations and worked to advance American trade agreements for two decades, and I've learned that what's excluded from discussions often matters more than what's included.
The Busan meeting deliberately sidesteps the structural issues that define US-China competition: China's massive state subsidies, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and state-directed industrial policy. Taiwan's status. The China-Russia relationship. China's expanding presence in Latin America and Africa.
These aren't oversights. They're conscious choices by both sides to focus on manageable disputes while acknowledging that core conflicts remain unresolvable for now.
China gets to continue its technological catch-up strategy without addressing American complaints about its state-led system. The US receives relief from immediate economic pain without securing structural reforms. Both leaders can declare victory because they're measuring success by different metrics.
What this means for your business strategy
If you're a global business executive or multinational board member, here's my advice based on what I'm seeing: treat this as a breathing space, not a resolution.
The tariff rollbacks and supply chain normalization are real and will provide relief. Port fee reductions for shipping will help operational costs. The predictability is welcome after nine months of chaos.
But don't reverse your diversification strategies. Don't re-concentrate exposure to China based on one summit. This meeting establishes rules of engagement for managed competition—it doesn't end the competition.
Specific actions I'm recommending:
First, stress-test your dependencies on rare-earth and critical minerals. China demonstrated it will use supply chain leverage more aggressively. Trump's rare-earth deals with Japan and Australia are the first steps, but alternative supply chains take years to build. Know your exposure.
Second, prepare for volatility to return within 6-12 months. Trump's track record shows he's prone to reversing course when domestic political pressures shift. The underlying tensions—technology competition, Taiwan, strategic rivalry—remain fully intact. And bashing China on the American campaign trail knows no bounds and certainly won't let up in next year's midterm elections.
Third, watch what they do, not what they say. Does China actually place large-scale soybean orders? Do rare-earth exports to US companies normalize? Does the US pause planned technology restrictions? Actions will tell you whether this détente has legs.
The six-month test
Here's what I'll be watching to gauge whether this holds:
The first test comes in 90 days. If China follows through on soybean purchases and the US genuinely pauses new tech restrictions, that would signal that both sides are committed to de-escalation.
The second test is Trump's proposed visit to Beijing in early 2026 — if he actually goes—and if Xi reciprocates with a Washington visit—that creates institutional momentum that's harder to reverse than ad hoc phone calls.
The third test is the one nobody's talking about: what happens when Xi stays in South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference after Trump jets off to return to the White House—Xi's positioning of China as the stable, reliable alternative to American unpredictability. If Asian economies begin hedging away from US alignment, that's a strategic win for Beijing that no tariff reduction can offset.
Bottom line
The Busan meeting isn't the end of US-China tensions. It's not even the beginning of the end. Anyone expecting a final resolution misunderstands the fundamental nature of this relationship—negotiations with China are permanent, not episodic.
What Busan represents is an agreement to establish rules for a long-term rivalry that both sides finally recognize they must manage rather than win outright. Trump gets his dealmaker moment. Xi gets time and symbolism. Markets get relief from chaos.
But the fundamental trajectory hasn't changed. We're still heading toward managed decoupling, just at a more controlled pace with fewer market-rattling surprises.
The smart money isn't betting on partnership or Cold War 2.0. The smart money is positioning for a world in which the US and China remain locked in strategic competition, with just enough dialogue to prevent it from spiraling into crisis.
That's not pessimism. It's realism. And it's the world business leaders need to navigate for the next decade.
-Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
Trump, South Korea reach terms on trade deal: WSJ reports a surprise breakthrough follows months of contentious talks over $350 billion in investments Seoul has pledged to America.
South Korea strikes gold with Trump’s visit, sealing trade deal: Straits Times reports South Korea went on a golden offensive to charm US President Donald Trump during his visit to the East Asian country, as the two sides finally agreed on a trade deal after months of deadlock. The two sides had not been able to agree over the modalities of Seoul’s pledge of US$350 billion (S$453 billion) in investments as part of a framework trade deal struck in July to lower US-imposed reciprocal tariffs of 25 per cent to 15 per cent.
Trump says South Korea will be able to build nuclear-powered submarine: WP reports Trump’s announcement was short on detail but came a day after he finalized a trade deal with South Korea that includes a pledge of $350 billion in investment.
Trump says South Korea to build nuclear submarines in US shipyards: Nikkei reports Lee says undersea ability will enable navy to track China's and North's subs.
Radio Free Asia will stop publishing amid funding crisis spurred by Trump: WP reports the government-funded nonprofit, a staple of US soft power in the region since 1996, is facing nearly total closure after being targeted by the administration and hit by the shutdown.
Toward a Taiwan truce: How Trump and Xi can pull back from the brink. Stephen Wertheim
Looming Trump-Xi meeting revives hope of US-China trade truce: As US President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping prepare to kick off talks on Oct 30, US negotiators have signalled they seek a return to a fragile trade war truce, but tensions remain high and longer-term economic irritants will likely persist between the geopolitical rivals. Straits Times
As Trump weighs sale of advanced AI chips to China, critics sound alarm: NYT reports the president signaled he would discuss the sale of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips in a summit on Thursday, a move US officials warned would be a “massive” national security mistake.
Trump lost the trade war to China Nicholas Kristof
Analysis: Xi Jinping faces delicate balancing act over Trump meeting: Supreme leader looks to extend his rule but leaves personnel reshuffle incomplete. Nikkei
Xi to Trump: China's rise 'goes hand in hand' with making America great: Nikkei reports at summit, Chinese president calls friction 'normal' as US leader vows 'fantastic' ties.
Ahead of Xi meeting, Trump says he’ll direct Pentagon to test nuclear weapons: WP reports the president said he wanted testing to occur “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, raising the pressure on Beijing as he prepared to meet his Chinese counterpart.
Trump threatens to resume nuclear weapons testing, minutes before Xi meeting: NYT reports just minutes before he was scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping of China, the president threatened on social media to resume nuclear testing for the first time in 33 years.
The US is on track to lose a war with China: Modern warfare is decided by production capacity and technological mastery, not by individual valor. Phillips Payson O’Brien
How China enables Russia’s military: New evidence shows the supply-chain trail aiding Moscow’s drone makers. WSJ-Editorial
Why China and Russia aren’t scared of the US: President Donald Trump has aggressively wielded US power to renegotiate key relationships and cut through entrenched disputes, but mostly targeted weaker actors. Trump will now face bigger challenges from stronger foes, including Russia and China, which are determined to show that his toughness is bluff and are pursuing geopolitical projects at odds with US interests. Hal Brands
Trump rebukes Putin for testing new missiles, tells him to end the war: WP reports Russia tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile that it said is capable of traveling thousands of miles. Trump countered that there is a US nuclear submarine off Russia’s coast.
US reduces troop numbers in Romania, signaling shifting priorities: WSJ reports the Pentagon will no longer rotate Army combat brigades through Romania as part of a strategy that focuses on Asia and Latin America.
US to withdraw some troops from Romania, NATO’s eastern flank: WP reports it is the first announcement of the Trump administration’s plans to scale back forces in Europe, where the US has underpinned security since World War II.
Almost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months: Telegraph reports Kyiv’s easing of travel restrictions for those aged 18-22 prompts an exodus... and complaints from Germans.
WP: Israel says cease-fire is back on after Gaza strikes
Centrists appear to defeat far right in Dutch election, exit poll shows: Le Monde reports Dutch voters appeared to have rejected far-right leader Geert Wilders in favor of centrist D66, exit polls suggested Wednesday.
The Dutch choose optimism over anti-immigrant populism: Rob Jetten beats out Geert Wilders. Economist
Dutch hard-right leader Geert Wilders set to exit power: WSJ reports the Freedom Party’s drop in support holds lessons for Europe’s resurgent far-right.
Wilders’ hopes of becoming Dutch PM in tatters: Telegraph reports hard take on asylum fails to pay off as exit poll shows win for Rob Jetten’s liberal D66 party.
Dutch voters deliver major setback to far-right party of Geert Wilders: NYT reports a center-left party was poised to become the country’s largest political party, according to exit polls. The anti-immigrant Party for Freedom, led by Mr. Wilders, was expected to lose 12 seats.
Spain’s economic outperformance slows: WSJ reports the GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter, from the 0.8% in the second.
Death toll of police raid in Rio doubles to 132, state watchdog says: WP reports the operation was the deadliest in Brazilian history. Authorities say they were targeting the Red Command, one of Brazil’s most powerful organized-crime groups.
Over 130 killed in bloody crackdown on drug gangs in Rio de Janeiro: NYT reports the death toll in Rio’s deadliest police operation in history rose to 132 people, the state authorities say, sparking outrage and a reckoning.
Javier Milei’s chance to transform Argentina and teach the world: Lessons in public finance from the original sinner. Economist
Post-election euphoria has Milei already eyeing 2027 re-election: Results of midterm elections surprised even the ruling party – with fresh momentum behind him, President Javier Milei has put agreements with governors and Cabinet reshuffle on hold as he begins to eye a re-election bid in 2027. BAT
'Non-interventionist' Trump flexes muscles in Latin America: AFP reports in a speech in Riyadh in May, President Donald Trump denounced generations of US interventionism, saying the Middle East was only made worse by Americans who fly in, giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs."
Trump’s grand Latin America strategy starts to bear fruit: Nine months into Donald Trump’s second term, Latin America has become a central focus of US foreign policy. The administration has shifted away from traditional development aid and diplomatic forums, opting instead for a strategy centered on tariffs, military pressure, and bilateral political alignment. Jesus Mesa
US military kills four more people accused of smuggling drugs on boats: NYT reports Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the latest strike took place on Wednesday in the eastern Pacific. It came two days after the deadliest set of strikes in the weekslong campaign in Latin America.
US strike on alleged drug boat kills four in Pacific: Le Monde reports this latest strike is the fourteenth in a string of deadly attacks under Donald Trump's controversial campaign against drug cartels in South American waters.
Detroit News: Sen. Slotkin (D-MI) slams Trump's 'secret war' at sea, warns of next steps in 'authoritarian playbook'
Sheinbaum gets a shot at making Mexico grow faster than the US: With the nation at a crossroads, the Mexican president’s decisions will determine whether growth takes off — or becomes mired in stagnation. Bloomberg
US trade war drives Canada to fast-track port expansion: WSJ reports officials say upgrade of Montreal’s port will help Canadian importers and exporters find alternatives to the US.
Senate votes to block tariffs on Canada: WP reports while symbolic, it is the Senate’s second rebuke of President Donald Trump’s trade policies in as many days.
+ Senate advances joint resolution to terminate emergency for Canada tariffs, 50-46
Why we’re forcing Senate votes on Trump’s tariffs: Do our colleagues side with US consumers or back the president’s economically damaging policy? Tim Kaine + Rand Paul
Bank of Canada exhausts tools to help tariff-battered economy: WSJ reports the onus on refueling growth will fall to Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Communication channels open, Carney and Trump ‘had some exchanges’ in Asia, Canada’s ambassador to US tells MPs: Toronto Star reports testifying at a senate committee, Kirsten Hillman said that Carney "had some exchanges with President Trump in Asia" at an APEC leaders' dinner.
If Mark Carney has a plan for how to deal with Trump, he might want to tell Canadians what it is Stephen Maher
Doug Ford urges US ambassador to ‘apologize’ for f-bombs aimed at Ontario diplomat: Toronto Star reports US ambassador Pete Hoekstra angrily complained to David Paterson, Ontario’s Washington point person, about Ford’s anti-tariff ad, sources told the Star.
Doug Ford’s message to America reveals Donald Trump’s weakness Martin Regg Cohn
Stellantis president grilled at House committee over decision move production to US: Toronto Star reports the head of Stellantis says a decision to move production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, ONT, to Illinois was “not taken lightly.”
30 years after cliffhanger vote, Quebec separatists voice hope for independence: AFP reports the result was excruciatingly close: 30 years ago Thursday, in a referendum on Quebec's independence, 50.6 percent of people voted "no," and 49.4 percent chose "yes" -- an outcome that left Canada whole.
Report: Government shutdown will cost the economy up to $14 billion: WP reports the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says the longer the government stays closed, the more costly the pause will be.
What can break the shutdown impasse? Significant milestones over the next few weeks could shuffle the status quo. For now, both sides remain dug in as the closure heads into a fifth week. NYT
The shutdown is now coming for your airport’s VIP security lane: WSJ reports federal officials have warned that an extended shutdown is further straining America’s already understaffed air-travel infrastructure.
A turning point in the government shutdown: Piecemeal bills are a waste of time. Just fund the whole government. WP-Editorial
AP: Trump isn’t canceling travel, golf, or his ballroom, even with the government shuttered and 750,000 furloughed federal employees
Fortune: Powell cuts rates in the dark in historic move, with no jobs data and Trump heckling from abroad
WSJ: Pentagon orders National Guard to establish quick reaction forces for civil unrest, riots
Binance boosted Trump family’s crypto company ahead of pardon for its billionaire founder: Giant crypto exchange facilitated $2 billion purchase of World Liberty’s stablecoin and built its technology; clemency for Changpeng Zhao surprised some in administration. WSJ
Trump nominee at US export bank withdraws amid scrutiny of Russia ties: WP reports Bryce McFerran is a former senior executive at a steel-trading business co-owned by one of Russia’s richest oligarchs and is married to a member of a Russian family with ties to the Kremlin.
The choreographed fakery of American politics: East Wing edition: Trump’s residential immodesty is nothing compared with his anti-constitutional immodesty. George Will
Trump fires White House ballroom inspectors: Telegraph reports Donald Trump has sacked the team of arts commissioners who were reviewing his White House ballroom. On Tuesday, the US president, who has been sensitive to criticism of the new building, sacked all six members of the Commission of Fine Arts.
+ US president to replace board members with people ‘more aligned with America First policies’
History offers warnings to leaders who renovate official buildings: They rarely start from solid foundations. Economist
Trump advisers consider Las Vegas for rare midterm political convention: WSJ reports President Trump’s advisers are considering Las Vegas for the GOP’s midterm convention next year, according to people involved in the discussions.
Trump pivots on 2028 term: ‘I’m not allowed’: The Times reports the president initially said he ‘would love’ to run again — but admitted on Wednesday that he cannot overrule the constitution.
+ Fox News host Mark Levin on Trump: "Nobody gets to run for a third term. Nobody. And he won't. Bannon is playing you."
NYC mayor’s race poll shows Mamdani with 10-point lead: NYT reports the poll from Quinnipiac University found that 43 percent of likely voters supported Zohran Mamdani, with 33 percent for former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and 14 percent for Curtis Sliwa.
I want your vote, you bigot: In an odd last-minute appeal, Mamdani accuses New Yorkers of ‘Islamophobia.’ Karl Rove
Mamdani is a New York miracle, not a national model for Democrats Ed Kilgore
JB Pritzker’s dark visions: Twenty-seven minutes with the latest governor Donald Trump wants arrested. Mark Leibovich
Three tough truths about climate: What I want everyone at COP30 to know. Bill Gates
When this reporter comes calling, the White House insults go flying: The administration often criticizes journalists, but the treatment of Shirish Dáte, a reporter for HuffPost, stands out. NYT
Automaker production stoppages begin over semiconductor shortage: Honda starts temporary production reductions and stoppages this week at North American factories. WSJ
Honda halts production in Mexico due to chip shortage: Nikkei reports Nexperia standoff with China affects major car export hub for US market.
CNBC: GM lays off more than 1,700 at sites in Michigan, Ohio, citing EV challenges
+ General Motors laid off more than 1,700 workers across manufacturing sites in Michigan and Ohio, the company confirmed to CNBC.
+ The layoffs include jobs at Detroit’s electric vehicle plant and Ohio’s Ultium Cells battery cell plant, in addition to temporary layoffs at Ultium Cells’ Tennessee plant.
+ The company cited a slowdown in the electric vehicle market.
How Carvana’s same-day car deliveries have become the company’s secret weapon: Carvana’s revenue rises 55% year over year. MW
Nvidia becomes first $5 trillion company: WSJ reports the company’s shares have been boosted by the AI boom and a flurry of new deals.
Nvidia at $5 trillion? What is money anymore? The chip company’s rapid growth is redefining the very meaning of “big” in Big Tech. Jessica Karl
Bloomberg: Meta, Microsoft test investors’ patience with AI spending spree
WSJ: Meta shares fall on higher expense guidance despite record revenue
Meta raises its spending forecast on AI to above $70 billion: NYT reports the Silicon Valley company projected more spending this year and said it would continue in 2026 as it hires AI researchers and builds data centers to power the technology.
Google revenue soars to record as AI boom lifts cloud business: WSJ reports the tech giant says AI spending is set to reach up to $93 billion this year, which it can finance with profit from its advertising and cloud units. Shares were up 5% after hours.
OpenAI is preparing to file for an initial public offering as soon as next year that could give the company a market capitalization of $1 trillion, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unidentified sources.
Universal Music settles with AI firm Udio: WSJ reports that Udio has agreed to launch a new subscription service for fans to create music based on licensed songs.
Memory-chip makers are enjoying a boom to remember, thanks to AI: WSJ reports Samsung and SK Hynix hit records as their business deepens with OpenAI, Nvidia, and other key firms.
Fortune: Everyone thinks AI is replacing factory workers, but Amazon’s layoffs show it’s coming for middle management first
I tried the robot that’s coming to live with you. It’s still part human. 1X’s Neo wants to be your housekeeper. First, it needs to be controlled by a human in your home. Cool with you? WSJ
The best source of critical minerals is driving down US streets: Mining is the dirty side of the green transition to electric vehicles. Battery recycling could give the US a cleaner, domestic source of critical minerals. WP
Jerry Jones says he has unlocked a $100 billion gas bounty in this drilling inferno: WSJ reports the Dallas Cowboys owner has backed Comstock Resources in its efforts to develop some of the hottest, deepest wells in the US.
Levi’s rolls out new premium denim, but aims to keep appealing to budget shoppers: The brand recently launched its Blue Tab collection to complement its existing lines that retail for as low as around $20. WSJ
By partnering with Shein, a symbol of globalized fast fashion, the BHV department store has muddled its own narrative: The decision could have significant economic consequences for the Parisian department store at a time when public opinion has become a global strategic issue for companies. Céline Chanvin + Anne Zuccarelli
Chipotle lowers sales forecast as consumers curtail dining out: FT reports burrito and bowl chain reduces sales guidance for third time this year, sending shares down more than 15%.
Paramount begins laying off 2,000 people months after Skydance merger: WP reports David Ellison, whose Skydance bought the media conglomerate this summer for $8 billion, announces move “addressing redundancies.”
Two suspects in Louvre heist are caught without jewels: The Paris prosecutor says two men suspected of breaking into the museum lived on the outskirts of the French capital. WSJ
Louvre heist suspects ‘partially admitted’ involvement: WP reports none of France’s crown jewels have been recovered. Paris’s public prosecutor said she remains hopeful, with two suspects in custody.
He’s never been to America. But in China, he’s Trump. Ryan Chen has turned an uncanny impersonation of President Trump into a social media career, and a mirror of China’s fascination with America. NYT
A24 just opened a restaurant in New York, and it’s as cinematic as you’d expect: Wallpaper reports hidden in the West Village, Wild Cherry pairs a moody, arthouse sensibility with a supper-style menu devised by the team behind Frenchette.
99: The number of days until the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics.
She hiked the entire Appalachian Trail at 80, unaware she’d just made history: “We put all kinds of limitations on ourselves,” said Betty Kellenberger. “Sometimes the biggest one is we don’t get up and try it.” WP
Is legalized gambling ruining sports? A federal investigation into illegal gambling has rocked the NBA and the sports world. Does it change how you view the game? Jeremy Engle
The joy of Spring skiing: There’s something special about gliding down the slopes in the sunshine. It’s also less crowded and cheaper. WSJ
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | October 29
US sought to lure Nicolás Maduro’s pilot into betraying the Venezuelan leader AP
Venezuela suspends Trinidad gas deals over US military build-up: FT reports twin-island nation has been a vocal supporter of Donald Trump’s campaign against alleged drug traffickers.
Reuters: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say
AP: US launches strikes on 4 alleged drug-running boats in the eastern Pacific, killing 14
US strikes draw Mexico into Trump’s campaign against drug boats: WSJ reports strikes on four vessels in eastern Pacific kill 14 as Mexican president seeks talks with US.
Bloomberg: US hits four ‘narco’ boats in Pacific, drawing Mexico’s ire
The new pirates of the Caribbean: Attacks against alleged drug boats are lawless. WP-Editorial
Trump’s feud with Colombian leader threatens US antidrug efforts: President Trump said he is cutting US aid. Gustavo Petro, a leftist guerrilla turned president, has called Mr. Trump’s boat strikes murder. NYT
As Hong Kong waged shadow war in Britain, ex-Royal Marine became a casualty: UK officials have tracked what they describe as an escalating campaign of surveillance and intimidation against Hong Kong exiles living in Britain. WP
Trump, Xi to discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdown: WSJ reports that if Beijing takes action to cut the export of chemicals that make fentanyl, the US would cut in half the 20% fentanyl-related levies on Chinese goods.
Trump heads to South Korea with all eyes on Xi meeting: AFP reports US President Donald Trump heads Wednesday for South Korea, where a key meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could produce a truce in the blistering trade war between the world's two largest economies.
What the Trump-Xi meeting can and can’t solve: Expect the outcome of the meeting to be a truce—not a treaty. Economist
Why China keeps winning the trade war: Beijing, Brussels, and Washington are all searching for the most efficient way to gum up their adversaries’ supply chains. Chris Miller
Japan and the US unveiled a list of potential projects for their $550 billion US investment vehicle, providing a first look into what specific proposals could be funded by the mechanism that’s a key part of the two countries’ trade deal.
US inks $80 billion deal with Westinghouse for nuclear reactors: WP reports the partnership would be funded with help from Japan and gives US taxpayers an ownership stake in the plants.
US government and Westinghouse strike $80bn nuclear reactor deal: FT reports agreement that uses funding from Japan is part of Donald Trump’s push to quadruple country’s nuclear capacity by 2050.
US enters $80 billion nuclear partnership to power AI expansion: Le Monde reports the announcement marks Washington's most tangible investment in nuclear power since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi finds the perfect playlist for Donald Trump: New prime minister hits clever notes in crucial encounter with visiting US president. Leo Lewis
Donald Trump and Sanae Takaichi promise ‘golden age’ for US-Japan alliance: FT reports president and Japanese prime minister sign agreement on rare earths supply.
US, South Korea to sign deal boosting AI, quantum cooperation: Bloomberg reports President Donald Trump’s administration is slated to sign a deal with South Korea aimed at bolstering cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 6G, according to a US official — part of a bid to maintain a competitive edge with China in an expanding race for tech supremacy.
The US is poised to rock Russia and China — if it holds firm: To change the behavior of Putin and Xi, new sanctions need to keep biting. Thomas Duesterberg
AP: Gaza ceasefire tested as Israel and Hamas exchange fire and blame
Netanyahu orders ‘forceful’ strikes in Gaza, testing ceasefire: Politico reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire during the return of hostage remains.
Israel conducts first airstrike in West Bank in months and kills 3: NYT reports a militant group allied with Hamas confirmed the deaths, which were part of an increase in fighting in the Palestinian territory during a surge of settler violence.
A trip to Gaza’s new ‘yellow line’ shows Israel is digging in: WSJ reports the temporary dividing line between two foes is becoming more permanent with earthworks and plans for civilian infrastructure.
Tareq Amin, the head of Saudi Arabia’s artificial intelligence startup Humain, said he is confident the US will clear the sale of advanced chips to the kingdom after his firm provided detailed guarantees to American officials. One of those guarantees, according to Amin: The company will not purchase equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies Co.
Mass atrocities feared in Darfur after paramilitaries seize key Sudanese city of El-Fasher: Le Monde reports fears of genocide are mounting in Sudan after paramilitary Rapid Support Forces captured the strategic city of El-Fasher, ending an 18-month siege and sparking reports of mass killings and executions.
AFP: Fears of mass atrocities after Sudan's El-Fasher falls to paramilitaries
Zelenskyy vows harder, better, faster, stronger strikes on Russian oil facilities: Politico reports Ukraine’s president also wants the EU to step up by unlocking Moscow’s frozen assets to help Kyiv.
BBC: Surge in Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries
sparks Russian fuel shortages
Russia has pounded Ukraine’s fortress city for over a year, but it hangs on: WP reports it was supposed to fall more than a year ago, but Pokrovsk is still holding out, even as street fighting has erupted inside the city after Russian troops infiltrated.
Michael Heseltine: Reform is fascist. We must stop Nigel Farage: At 92, the Tory grandee Michael Heseltine is making a comeback. He has harsh words for Nigel Farage and Reform, whose policies remind him of Oswald Mosley and Enoch Powell. The Times
Catholic nationalists are on a collision course with the Vatican: Pope Leo’s cosmopolitan stance lays bare a tension at the heart of the Church’s teaching. Jack Hanson
At least 60 dead in mega-operation against organized crime in Rio de Janeiro: EL Pais reports authorities were targeting Comando Vermelho, which has become Brazil’s second most powerful criminal organization.
CNN: Massive police raid in Rio de Janeiro leaves at least 64 dead
Brazil: At least 64 reported killed in Rio’s worst day of violence amid police favela raids: Guardian reports governor says city ‘at war’ after gunfights between troops and Red Command drug traffickers who reportedly used weaponised drones.
The case for a multilateral trade organization without America: US President Donald Trump’s divide-and-rule tactics have shattered the postwar multilateral order. To preserve open, rules-based commerce, America’s major trading partners must form a new coalition capable of upholding the principles that the World Trade Organization can no longer guarantee. Anne O. Krueger
What’s behind the global Gen Z revolution? The rise of youth-led political movements in the Global South point to structural inequalities in the global system. Robert A. Manning
Here's what experts say 'A House of Dynamite' gets wrong (and right) about nuclear war NPR
Pentagon frets over ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear doomsday film: WP reports a Missile Defense Agency internal memorandum argues that the doomsday scenario depicted in the movie is inaccurate. The Oct. 16 memo, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News, is meant to make sure agency leadership “has situational awareness and is not ‘surprised’ by the topic, which may come up in conversations or meetings.”
+ “The fictional interceptors in the movie miss their target and we understand this is intended to be a compelling part of the drama intended for the entertainment of the audience,” but results from real-world testing “tell a vastly different story,” the Pentagon says in the memo.
The Pentagon issues statement decrying Netflix’s House of Dynamite over ‘inaccuracies’: The film imagines the response to an impending nuclear attack on the United States as its anti-missile defense system fails. Independent
I spoil ‘A House of Dynamite,’ Netflix’s nuclear war movie: In real life, President Idris Elba wouldn’t get such bad advice. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
I'm a US senator. 'House of Dynamite' exposes a brutal truth. The film dispels the comforting illusion that technology can shield us from a nuclear attack. Sen. Edward J. Markey
The new Eurasian order: America must link its Atlantic and Pacific strategies: Julianne Smith + Lindsey Ford
Reuters: Trump's popularity dips as Americans sweat cost of living, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
+ Trump’s net approval rating fell to -18%, according to The Economist’s tracker. It is the lowest it has been since his inauguration and three percentage points lower than at any point during his first term.
The political economy of Trump’s luck: Those who are bearish on US democracy should not extend their pessimism to the economy. Edward Luce
Detroit News: 'There's no end in sight': Detroit air traffic controllers lament first payless payday
Air traffic controllers’ $0 pay stubs have arrived: Unpaid government workers, SNAP benefits on the verge of expiration … what’s it going to take for Congress to end this shutdown? Jessica Karl
Reuters: US flight delays near 7,000 as government shutdown hits Day 27
Donald Trump’s trade power is vast, but self-defeating: The view from Canada, as Trumpian threats fly. Economist
The Supreme Court won’t hurt America if it strikes down the tariffs: Despite the Trump administration’s warnings, the economy will not suffer from obeying the Constitution. Scott Lincicome
Inside the Trump family’s global crypto cash machine: The US president’s family raked in more than $800 million from sales of crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone, a Reuters examination found, on top of potentially billions more in unrealized “on paper” gains. Much of that cash has come from foreign sources as Donald Trump's sons have touted their business on an international investor roadshow. Reuters
Trump's inner circle implodes: How McMahon and Rollins tried to oust Wiles: In an excerpt from Retribution, Jonathan Karl reveals the chaos and infighting from Trump acolytes—including a last-ditch effort by Linda McMahon and Brooke Rollins to derail Susie Wiles’s appointment as chief of staff. Vanity Fair
Donald Trump floats Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as new Fed chair: FT reports US president expected to name successor to Jay Powell by Christmas.
Donald Trump’s plan to subvert the midterms is already under way: Our election system is reaching a breaking point. David A. Graham
Speaker Johnson says there's no 'path' for a 3rd Trump term: ABC News reports the House speaker said he doesn't "see a way to amend the Constitution" to allow for President Donald Trump to seek a third term in office.
CNN: Johnson says he’s spoken with Trump about ‘the constrictions of the Constitution’ on a third term
Why is Trump autocracy rising? These Dems have an unnerving answer. A new Biden administration autopsy, based on internal assessments from many government insiders, has crystal clear lessons for the future. TR
Biden adviser says he would have received $4 million bonus for 2024 win: WP reports Mike Donilon’s total potential pay package was unusually large and outsized compared to the salaries of senior campaign officials working for the president’s reelection.
DMR: Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) launches run for governor, promises 'America First agenda in Iowa'
A political drama for the ages, opening soon in New York City: Zohran Mamdani v Donald Trump. What could go wrong? Economist
Bill Gates: Climate change is not the end of the world: The Times reports the Microsoft co-founder, whose foundation has donated billions to philanthropy projects, has called for a change in strategy away from ‘emissions goals.’
Remote work is shaped by geopolitics, not technology: Increasingly, geopolitics is shaping who works, the location of work, and the type of work we get to do. FC
24 AI startups to watch in 2026: OpenAI may get most of the attention, but these two dozen companies are finding their way in AI by making vibe-coding software, building robots, and developing drones. Bloomberg
Why companies will just keep nudging you to try AI: The prodding to try AI products as you watch TV, surf the web or stare at your phone is a classic tactic in technology. It’s annoying, but it works. WP
What AI means for growth and jobs: While many commentators warn that AI will undermine employment and offer only modest productivity gains, empirical studies continue to suggest otherwise. With the right policies in place, the technology holds immense potential to drive both growth and employment. PS
Why AI breaks bad: Once in a while, LLMs turn evil—and no one quite knows why. Wired
48 hours without AI: It’s everywhere, as the author learned the hard way while making as little contact as possible with machine learning and generative artificial intelligence. NYT
OpenAI completes for-profit transition, pushing Microsoft above $4 trillion valuation: WSJ reports startup’s conversion clears obstacle for potential initial public offering, gives Microsoft 27% stake in new public-benefit corporation.
Microsoft holds 27% of OpenAI in revamped partnership: AFP reports Microsoft and OpenAI announced Tuesday a sweeping overhaul of their landmark artificial intelligence (AI) partnership, giving both companies greater independence while maintaining their close collaboration.
OpenAI restructures to become a more traditional for-profit company: The artificial intelligence company said the nonprofit that controlled the organization would receive a $130 billion stake in the new company. NYT
OpenAI restructuring pushes Microsoft’s valuation above $4tn: FT reports ChatGPT creator was founded as non-profit but has been racing to unlock new investment.
OpenAI and Microsoft are avoiding a messy breakup Dave Lee
Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang announced a flurry of new partnerships and dismissed concerns about an AI bubble, saying the company’s latest chips are on track to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue.
Nvidia is taking a $1 billion equity stake in Nokia Oyj and plans to supply the telecom company with artificial-intelligence powered computers for wireless networks. Nokia shares jumped the most in more than a decade.
Nvidia to invest $1 billion in Nokia in AI pact: WSJ reports chip maker will have a 2.9% ownership stake in the Finnish telecom company.
Nvidia to invest $1bn in Nokia as chip giant extends deal spree: FT reports Finnish group’s shares surge by a fifth on tie-up that will see US company become one of its largest shareholders.
Nvidia bets on national security with Palantir, 6G partnerships: Nikkei reports AI chip giant unveils new quantum computing platform NVQLink.
Eli Lilly partners with Nvidia to build AI supercomputer for drug discovery: WSJ reports drugmaker hopes Nvidia-chip powered supercomputer will help it find new drugs and accelerate lengthy R&D timelines.
Peter Thiel-backed startup secures $100 million to make chips in US: WSJ reports Substrate seeks to build semiconductor factories with new laser-based technology, but hurdles are high.
Samsung shakes off AI memory woes but race to innovate is far from over: Nikkei reports tech giant bets big on HBM chips after ceding ground to rival SK Hynix.
Uber is setting a goal to eventually have a fleet of 100,000 autonomous vehicles powered by Nvidia Corp. technology, an ambitious move that could help bring down the cost of offering hailable robotaxis to consumers.
Uber partners with Nvidia to deploy 100,000 robotaxis: AFP reports Uber and Nvidia announced an alliance to deploy 100,000 robotaxis starting in 2027.
Stellantis said it plans to work with tech heavyweights Nvidia, Uber, and Foxconn as it seeks a foothold in the robotaxi business.
Tesla sees the forthcoming Cybercab as its long-promised more affordable electric vehicle — and it’s willing to make fundamental design changes to sell the car in high volumes. In short, it’s willing to make it more like a normal vehicle that human drivers can control.
China looks to replicate EV success with autonomous cars: Nikkei reports self-driving autos to reach 70% of total domestic sales in 2035 under plan.
Detroit News: The 2026 Jeep Grand Cherokee includes a four-cylinder engine with F1 tech
What Amazon’s 14,000 job cuts say about a new era of corporate downsizing: Executives have echoed Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s talking points, tying their job cuts to expected gains from AI and the need for more nimble operations. WP
Is Amazon's massive wave of layoffs the first of the AI era? The company said Tuesday that it is eliminating 14,000 jobs to streamline its operations, without saying from where the cuts will come. Le Monde
Amazon to cut 14,000 corporate jobs amid AI investment: DW reports Amazon hired as its delivery demand peaked during the COVID pandemic, meaning analysts anticipated layoffs. The company is also in the process of boosting its AI spending with a view to streamlining.
WSJ: UPS cuts 48,000 jobs in management and operations
Embattled Tylenol maker Kenvue hires new marketing chief: WSJ reports company to name snack food executive Jon Halvorson as it faces a crisis over concerns of links between Tylenol and autism.
How KFC lost fast food’s chicken crown—and how it plans to win it back: The decades-old chicken chain is battling US sales declines as consumers choose sandwiches and tenders over buckets of fried chicken. WSJ
KFC’s plan to catch up in the fried chicken wars: Ditch the bones Bloomberg
Weight-loss drugs are spreading across the world: The expiry of patents in China, India, and elsewhere will boost uptake dramatically. Economist
How pig organs may soon save lives: After a man lives nearly nine months with a pig kidney, two American firms are preparing clinical trials. Economist
The fight to restore Chicago’s Magnificent Mile to its glory days: The area’s crime rate is down, and cheaper rents have prompted retailers to lease new space. WSJ
CEOs are furious about employees texting in meetings: Jamie Dimon says it’s gone too far. Others are devising new measures, from hiding Wi-Fi passwords to installing the corporate equivalent of the swear jar. WSJ
Why ‘Yellowstone’ mastermind Taylor Sheridan decided to ditch Paramount: The creator of hits like ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Landman’ is leaving the entertainment company after tension with new Paramount CEO David Ellison’s leadership team. WSJ
Stellan Skarsgård knows best: The self-proclaimed “nepo daddy” is at the top of his game as a narcissistic patriarch in Sentimental Value. NY Mag
Mel Gibson angers right by casting pro-abortion actress as Virgin Mary: The Times reports Kasia Smutniak, who supported protests for women’s rights in Poland, will star in the actor-turned-director’s film The Resurrection of the Christ.
On a terrace in Milan, a gathering of creative
expats: Having adopted the Italian city as her home, the German-born fashion designer Tina Lutz Morris threw a housewarming party filled with others who’ve done the same. NYT Mag
MAGA singles are looking for love in Washington. It’s a challenge. The politics of trying to find a partner in an overwhelmingly liberal city can be tricky: “My partner can’t think I’m a fascist. That’s crazy.” WP
Why I run: I took up the sport to be like my father. I kept going because he stopped. Nicholas Thompson
‘Every Day Is Sunday’ review: How football got huge: The NFL went from being a major pro sports league to something even bigger—the commercial titan it is today. WSJ
Belichick who? Hug-loving coach and quarterback phenom have patriots rolling again: First year boss Mike Vrabel has New England off to a 6-2 start. But the revelation is second year passer (and growing MVP candidate) Drake Maye. Jason Gay
TA: Fox to broadcast a record 69 matches in the 2026 World Cup
'I would like to be there' – Lionel Messi on if he will play at the 2026 World Cup: BAT reports national team captain says in an interview with NBC news that he wants to play in the World Cup but will decide in early 2026.
With college soccer ‘at risk,’ US Soccer pushes for overhaul – but not without resistance: TA reports a US Soccer-led committee is pushing college soccer toward a new competitive model that could override current conferences, introduce an element of promotion and relegation, and extend the college season from late summer through the spring. In a white paper released Thursday, the committee of college administrators, pro soccer executives, corporate partners, and others recommended this revolutionary model for men’s college soccer.
+ Access the paper "Ensuring College Soccer Thrives in the Modern Era of College Athletics and the Changing US Soccer Landscape" here.
Backers with £1.5bn-plus and need for control: Christian Horner’s next move: Sacked Red Bull chief has been linked to Ferrari, but wants security of ownership and has investors who could help him buy an F1 team or even set up a new one. The Times
Trump’s granddaughter to make LPGA debut in £2.45m event: Telegraph reports Kai Trump receives sponsor exemption to play in The Annika next month, which has one of the strongest fields outside the majors.
Trump's granddaughter set to play in LPGA event: AFP reports US President Donald Trump's granddaughter Kai Trump is poised to make her LPGA Tour debut after receiving a sponsor invitation on Tuesday to the November 13-16 tournament at Pelican Golf Club in Florida.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal