Caracal Daily | December 1

Make money not war: Trump’s real plan for peace in Ukraine: The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board. WSJ

In war and peace, US must stand with Ukraine Michael R. Bloomberg

Bloomberg: Rubio, Witkoff meet Ukrainian team in pursuit of peace deal

Rubio says ‘much work’ to be done after talks with Ukrainian officials:
NYT reports Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials met with a Ukrainian delegation led that was without Andriy Yermak, who resigned as chief of staff to Ukraine’s president on Friday.

Ukraine says it held ‘difficult but productive’ talks with US on peace plan: FT reports Donald Trump’s special envoy due to travel to Moscow this week as Washington tries to clinch a deal.

Zelensky’s fight for survival is more personal than ever: After losing his most trusted aide to a corruption scandal and growing questions about Ukraine’s war strategy, the president faces the prospect of defections. The Times

Russia’s next move: Which Putin will turn up to the peace talks? The Russian leader could play diplomat, accountant or mischief-maker when Steve Witkoff’s US delegation arrives in Moscow. The Times

Russia gains the upper hand in the drone battle, once Ukraine’s forte: WSJ reports Moscow’s military has gotten better at using the war’s deadliest weapons: small, cheap drones.

Chinese parts supplier takes stake in leading Russian drone maker: FT reports tie-up marks new level of co-operation between Moscow and Beijing’s military industrial complexes.

Mystery blasts rock Russia-linked oil tankers off Turkey’s coast: WSJ reports the two vessels belong to the so-called shadow fleet that Moscow has tapped to sidestep Western sanctions on the movement of its oil.

Our military must mobilise like France or we’ll meet our Waterloo: The threat to our country has been building for at least 20 years and no government has acted. Rod Liddle

NATO is preparing to confront Russia with limited US support: The worst-case scenario is now a possible one: European troops fighting off an invasion largely alone. Bloomberg

NATO considers being ‘more aggressive’ against Russia’s hybrid warfare: Alliance’s top military officer says it could become proactive in dealing with threat from Moscow. FT

Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia: Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies. Politico

Flood death toll rises rapidly across south-east Asia to more than 900: FT reports large parts of Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Sri Lanka reeling after rare cluster of storms.

For Taiwan, sushi diplomacy is about far more than food: On an island where every utterance can enrage China, it’s become a symbol of solidarity with Japan. The Times

China is making trade impossible: Europe has nothing to offer, and difficult decisions to make. Robin Harding

Is China winning the innovation race? Once the world’s factory, Beijing’s relentless focus on R&D means the country has become the world’s laboratory. FT

China used to be a cash cow for Western companies. Now it’s a test lab. Intense competition pushes some brands to adapt to Chinese tastes and introduce lower prices—and use the country as an innovation hub to learn from. WSJ

Bloomberg: China factory activity slumps for longest stretch on record

+ China’s factory activity improved but remained in contraction in November, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country’s economic slowdown deepens.

+ The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services reached 49.5, after inching up to 50.1 in October, driven by weakness in the real estate and residential services sectors.

+ Chinese policymakers are in no rush to act now that their annual growth target of around 5% for this year looks to be within reach, despite the recent downswing in the economy.


China services activity hits 3-year low while factory slump persists: FT reports data from national statistics agency indicates continuing weak demand in economy.

Bloomberg: India plans to pitch arms deal with Russia during Putin visit

Indian outreach to Taliban is ratcheting up Afghan-Pakistani tensions:
WP reports Afghanistan and Pakistan appear headed toward a new military escalation.

India is a rising power, but breathing in its capital is hazardous: NYT reports with little being done to clean the skies over New Delhi, the huge city struggles with toxic air.

Australia is about to ban teens from social media — or so it thinks: Under-16s will lose access to apps like TikTok on December 10, but they’re already finding ways around it, and some are even going to court. The Times

Bloomberg: Iran says it held talks with Turkey on nuclear issue and Israel

Netanyahu asks Israel’s president to pardon him in corruption cases:
NYT reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the contentious appeal weeks after President Trump had made the same request to the Israeli president.

Pope Leo calls for a two-state solution in Mideast conflict: The pope, arriving in Lebanon, also encouraged that country’s Christians to stay where they are, despite economic, political, and security concerns. NYT

As Pope Leo visits Lebanon, Christians are fleeing the Middle East: WP reports Christians are still the largest religious minority in the Middle East, the region where Jesus was born, lived, and died, but the community is shrinking.

Europe’s largest capital without a subway is finally getting one Bloomberg

Poland: An economic miracle at the heart of Europe: Hollowed out by 50 years of communist rule, Poland has transformed itself into a powerhouse. But can it avoid the mistakes of other Western nations? The Times

Italy’s Borromeo family lists islands to rival Lake Como: Bloomberg reports they plan to use proceeds from the listing of Kaleon SpA — originally founded in 1983 to manage the family estates at the lake in northern Italy — to develop the area and transform their business into a platform to oversee other historic and artistic sites in Italy and elsewhere.

Swiss voters reject 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich: FT reports overwhelming majority opposed wealth tax in contentious referendum.

Why France’s politics are broken — and what that means for its economy Bloomberg

Bloomberg: Starmer girds for six-month fight to save his premiership

+ Keir Starmer has six months to prove his mettle to his party amid doubts that he can reverse plunging public confidence in his UK administration.

+ Ministers and aides say Starmer needs to convince his lawmakers and the public before local elections in May that “Starmerism” can be a vote winner.

+ Pollsters are doubtful that Starmer, Reeves and the government can turn things around, with one saying it's "very unlikely" they will be able to do so, given historical trends.


Bloomberg: AI may help Britain’s economy, but not soon enough for Labour

+ The Office for Budget Responsibility said artificial intelligence could provide as much as a 0.8 percentage-point lift to productivity growth within 10 years, but most of the effects are likely to arrive in the second half of that decade.

+ The technology only provides a modest boost of around 0.2 percentage points to productivity growth in the OBR's current five-year forecast, which would be too late to significantly alter the precarious fiscal situation facing Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.

+ The OBR estimates that around 40% of jobs could be materially impacted by AI in the next decade, though most of these roles are complemented rather than replaced, with finance and professional services among the most exposed sectors.


Scotland wants to issue its own bonds. Last time it paid with its independence. The first Scottish bonds in over 300 years, already known as ‘kilts,’ could help exorcise the ghosts of the past. WSJ

Scotland the home of the super-rich? If only SNP was brave enough: The party likes to differentiate itself from all things English — so instead of squeezing the wealthy like Rachel Reeves it should offer tax breaks to millionaires. Alex Massie

Fed-up UK Millennials are mobilizing to push for economic growth: An emerging political movement aims to make infrastructure, housing, and growth cool for a generation of frustrated Britons. Bloomberg

The battle over Africa’s great untapped resource: IP addresses: Chinese entrepreneur stirs controversy by amassing millions of IP addresses and leasing them to companies outside Africa; internet-service providers cry foul. WSJ

Mark Carney agrees to new pipeline project to bolster oil exports to Asia: FT reports Canadian PM’s deal with premier of Alberta is condemned by environmentalists and indigenous groups.

Mexico’s attorney-general quits in fuel-smuggling scandal: FT reports veteran lawyer Alejandro Gertz Manero came under pressure following case against co-owner of Miss Universe pageant.

Big baychecks can’t woo enough sailors for America’s commercial fleet: WSJ reports the US faces a growing sailor shortage despite maritime jobs offering big pay and significant perks. 

My three weeks navigating ice in the Arctic Ocean: Melting ice is making the far north even more dangerous. WSJ

Hondurans vote in tense election as Trump says ‘democracy is on trial’: FT reports presidential candidates accuse each other of fraud amid fears that the result will not be accepted.

In announcing pardon of drug trafficker while threatening Venezuela, Trump displays contradictions: President Trump’s statements on social media less than 24 hours apart showed the dissonance in his campaign against drug trafficking. NYT

Trump’s focus on drug war means big business for defense startups: Drones, sensors, and AI platforms developed for other theaters are being rebranded as tools for the fight against ‘narco-terror.’ WSJ

Will Trump invade Venezuela — and what comes next? Pressure is rising on Maduro’s regime amid reports he and Trump have spoken by phone. The Times

Trump says airlines should consider Venezuelan airspace closed: WP reports the president’s announcement follows growing US threats to attack the South American nation.

The US needs a strategy in Venezuela, not airstrikes Bloomberg-Editorial

Venezuela’s wily ruler digs in to defy Donald Trump: Nicolás Maduro has overcome numerous attempts to oust him. FT

WP: Hurry up and wait: Ordinary Venezuelans try to prepare for US attack

Why Russia and China are sitting out Venezuela’s clash with Trump:
The ‘Axis of Authoritarianism’ is depleted by the war in Ukraine and preoccupied with trade negotiations. WSJ

Here are the Caribbean allies helping the US against Venezuela: The Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago are hosting US forces and facilities. Grenada is considering it. WP

A lost generation of news consumers? Survey shows how teenagers dislike the news media AP

Since Trump’s return, bets on his brand have soured: Stocks and cryptocurrencies tied to the president and his family have tumbled amid a broader rout of riskier assets. WSJ

Trump’s $21 trillion investment boom is actually short trillions: Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion, and many of those are in question. Bloomberg

Inside Trump’s push to make the White House ballroom as big as possible: President Trump’s ever-growing vision has caused tension with contractors. His architect has taken a step back as the president personally manages the project. NYT

In a time of crisis, Trump falls back on rants rather than unity: The president has used the language of divisiveness at a time when tragedy demands leadership. WP

Congressional committees to scrutinize US killing of boat strike survivors: In a rare split with the Trump administration, GOP-led panels in the House and Senate say they want a full accounting in the September military attack. WP

Lawmakers suggest follow-up boat strike could be a war crime: NYT reports top Republicans have joined Democrats in demanding answers about the escalating military campaign the Trump administration says is aimed at targeting drug traffickers.

Hegseth conscripts the Pentagon for Trump’s ‘retribution campaign’: In threatening to deploy the military justice system against Democrats, Hegseth has joined Trump’s norm-shattering bid to punish political foes. WP

Will MAGA’s chaos lead to a lame duck? The GOP lost key elections, Trump lost Marjorie Taylor Greene … omens of a meltdown are multiplying. Tobin Harshaw

MAGA has taken DC power dining to a whole new level: In Trump’s Washington, espresso Martinis, beef tallow, and members’ clubs have replaced puritanical dinners and warm white reception wine. FT

How Democrats lost white, rural America Nia-Malika Henderson

The next big battleground test: A Wisconsin race that has tortured Republicans: Republicans and Democrats have each poured tens of millions into the state's recent Supreme Court races — and the GOP has gotten crushed. Politico

‘The new price of eggs.’ The political shocks of data centers and electric bills: Democrats zeroed in on utilities and affordability to win Republican support in upset elections in Georgia and Virginia. Can the same playbook work in 2026? NYT

‘A full-blown crisis’: Americans brace for a surge in healthcare costs: West Virginia is at the epicentre of a looming disaster over rising insurance premiums as affordability concerns soar. FT

Silicon Valley’s man in the White House is benefiting himself and his friends: David Sacks, the Trump administration’s AI and crypto czar, has helped formulate policies that aid his Silicon Valley friends and many of his own tech investments. NYT

Fears about AI prompt talks of Super PACs to rein in the industry: As artificial intelligence companies prepare to pour money into the midterm elections, some in the AI world are hatching plans of their own to curb the industry’s influence. NYT

How Big Tech is creating its own friendly media bubble to ‘win the narrative battle online’: At a time when distrust of big tech is high, Silicon Valley is embracing an alternative ecosystem where every CEO is a star. Guardian

The new billionaires behind the AI data center boom: From software to buildings, the race into artificial intelligence has vaulted 16 executives into new stratospheres of wealth. Bloomberg

Data centers are a ‘gold rush’ for construction workers: Surging demand means six-figure pay and more perks. WSJ

Inside the power-hungry data centres taking over Britain: Our thirst for AI is fuelling a new construction wave of giant data centres. But can our electricity and water systems cope — and what will the neighbours say? The Times

The AI industry is built on a big unproven assumption: In addition to the projections about reaching artificial general intelligence and replacing millions of human workers, there’s the mundane matter of how long AI chips will last. Bloomberg

AI doesn’t add up if you neglect the mathematicians: We are failing to invest in the mathematical community at a time when we need it more than ever. Ewan Kirk

AI can cook the entire market now Bloomberg

AI bubble poses £26 billion problem for UK: The spending watchdog warns of huge potential drop in tax revenues if share prices plummet. The Times

Why ChatGPT still has a winning edge over Google's AI Parmy Olson

OpenAI’s lead under pressure as rivals start to close the gap: Three years since the debut of ChatGPT, the $500bn start-up is facing significant challenges to its dominance in AI. FT

Leave me alone, AI: If I wanted your tedious advice on how to do the simplest thing online, I would have asked for it. Pilita Clark

AI could replace 40% of American jobs, says report: McKinsey report finds that with today’s technology, AI agents and robots are ready to automate about 57 percent of work hours in the United States. The Times

Google delays opening of ‘landscraper’ London HQ until 2026: The Times reports foxes have moved in before the employees at the King’s Cross project, which has been beset by issues including the sale or collapse of contractors.

Luca Ferrari: Europe needs to smash the language barrier: The Italian entrepreneur runs Bending Spoons — a $12 billion company you’ve probably never heard of, buying the businesses you do know, such as AOL. The Times

Target needs more than a vibe shift to turn its business around: The ailing retailer has lost its cheap-chic appeal. Can a new CEO get it back on its feet with his old boss next door? Bloomberg

Lululemon is having an identity crisis. Its founder blames the CEO. The athleisure brand’s estranged founder, Chip Wilson, is telling anyone who will listen how the current leadership is messing up. WSJ

America loves a $13 lunch bowl. Don’t bet against it. Consumers may be struggling, but they still want fresh and fast offerings from restaurants like Cava and Chipotle. WSJ

What I learned about five-star service at the Harvard of hospitality: Today’s hospitality is all about experience and empathy, and the secret to stellar service might just be brewing at your local Starbucks. Bloomberg

Inside the ‘unicorn uni’ where start-ups can take off in two months: In the London office of venture capitalist Antler, tech entrepreneurs gather for eight weeks in pursuit of expert coaching, an investor network … and £500,000. The Times

Would you track your stools like you track your steps? Equipped with sensors and AI, smart toilets promise to monitor hydration, gut health, and even cancer risk — if users can get past the ick factor. Bloomberg

These very hungry microbes devour a powerful pollutant WP

How the arrival of one Arctic tern halted work on entire nuclear plant: Protecting fish at Hinkley Point C isn’t the half of it, according to John Fingleton, who highlighted the costs and delays of big projects in Britain. The Times

Your ETF is ruining capitalism John Authers

How capitalism took over the world: In a bold new history, Sven Beckert traces the origins of our modern economy, from global port cities to the halls of power. NYT

Capitalism’s latest critic ignores its secret sauce Adrian Wooldridge

Ken Burns still thinks America is perfectible: The American Revolution filmmaker talks about the hypocrisies of US history and what’s missing from our political lives today. Bloomberg

Is AI killing the art connoisseur? Such specialists are an endangered species, but computer attribution is often wrong — and can be out by as much as a century. FT

Bloomberg: JPMorgan’s billionaire clients want sports teams more than fine art

+ Some 20% of 111 billionaire families served by JPMorgan Chase & Co. now own controlling stakes in sports teams, up from 6% three years ago.

+ About a third of the families surveyed invested more broadly in sports teams or stadiums, making it their top specialty asset class ahead of art and cars.

+ The heads of billionaire families are also boosting their private markets activity, with nearly 70% preferring active roles in private investments, such as taking board seats.


The SEC lost its last unbeaten team—and won college football’s rivalry weekend: The Big Ten has the top two teams in the country, but after a wild week and one major upset, the Southeastern Conference has as many as seven teams in playoff contention. WSJ

College football’s worst-kept secret confirmed: Lane Kiffin will coach LSU: WSJ reports the most-coveted name in this year’s coaching cycle ended weeks of speculation by announcing he will leave Ole Miss ahead of the 12-team playoff for Baton Rouge.

Christian Horner’s move to Aston Martin collapses: The Times reports owner Lawrence Stroll understood to have told team members that former Red Bull boss will not be joining, despite speculation linking him with role amid restructure.

Why can’t I just watch sports on television? It shouldn’t be this hard to be a fan. Stephanie Hayes

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal 

Send me A11 by email.

Caracal Daily | November 26

Ukraine accepts ‘core terms’ of plan that could give peace a chance: Zelensky is inching closer to accepting the basis of an agreement. Trump is optimistic, but European leaders doubt Moscow’s willingness to agree to a ceasefire. The Times

Relief and uncertainty for Ukraine and Europe after Trump's plan is overhauled: Negotiations in Geneva led to the removal of the most problematic points for European Union countries and Ukraine from the US plan. But the revised 19-point plan is yet to be finalized and must still be presented to the Russians. Le Monde

Trump pushes Ukraine and Russia on peace deal, but key issues are unresolved: President Donald Trump declared optimism about progress, but Ukraine and Russia remain far apart about whether Kyiv should surrender additional territory to Moscow. WP

Russia strikes Ukraine and signals resistance to amended peace plan: The attack killed at least seven people in Kyiv, the authorities said, as Moscow suggested it would resist changes negotiated by Ukraine. NYT

+ Germany and Romania scrambled fighter jets after two Russian drones crossed into Romanian airspace from Ukraine. 

How the US drafted a Russia-friendly peace plan for Ukraine: Crucial input from Kremlin confidant influenced document that for week roiled relations among the US, Ukraine and Europe. WSJ

Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plan to Trump Bloomberg

+ US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff held a phone call with Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top foreign policy aide, to suggest working together on a peace plan for Ukraine.

+ Witkoff advised Ushakov on how Putin could broach the issue with Trump, including setting up a call before Volodymyr Zelenskiy's White House visit and using the Gaza agreement as a way in.

+ The conversation offers insight into Witkoff's tactics for negotiating with Russia and the genesis of the 28-point peace proposal that emerged earlier this month, which the US has pushed Ukraine to accept as the basis of a deal.


Trump sends Witkoff to Moscow in hopes of finalizing Ukraine deal: Le Monde reports the US president said Tuesday his plan to end the war in Ukraine has been 'fine-tuned' and he’s sending envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to meet with Ukrainian officials. But European leaders remained skeptical, and Russian missiles continued to rain down on Kyiv.

Donald Trump sends top envoy to Russia to finalise US peace plan for Ukraine: FT reports president’s comments come as Moscow signals it could reject proposal that differs from Alaska talks.

Zelensky has clearly read ‘The Art of the Deal’: If Ukraine gets security assurances and Russia balks, Trump needs to punish Putin. WP-Editorial

The wrong sort of peace leads to the next war: Donald Trump’s approach to peacemaking ignores crucial lessons from history. Economist

Republicans fight with Trump’s team over Ukraine talks: Senator Mitch McConnell and several other lawmakers have accused President Trump’s team of appeasing the Kremlin, warning that doing so would not lead to lasting peace. NYT

Ukraine and the off-point peace plan: If the final peace plan is anything like the 28-point draft, Kyiv is in deep trouble. William A. Galston

Another attempt at peace in Ukraine: Despite Trump’s plan, the West lacks the unity of purpose to put pressure on Putin. Walter Russell Mead

Another Ukraine peace scare: It will take a lot more than what Donald Trump is doing to convince Putin that it’s in his best interest to stop. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

Can Trump deliver Putin? The hysterics will get hysterical all over again when it turns out peace isn’t nigh. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

Steve Witkoff’s been played by Putin. He has to go: Trump’s placeman at the negotiating table is out of his depth when it comes to peace in Ukraine. Roger Boyes

Dan Driscoll: Trump’s new man in the room with the Russians: After becoming the youngest army secretary in US history, the president’s ‘drone guy’ has been tasked with ending the war in Ukraine. The Times

Macron says that Russia has not shown any 'willingness to discuss' an amended version of US peace plan: Le Monde reports the French president's comments have come amid renewed attempts to broker an end to the nearly four-year war in Ukraine. He said 'continued pressure' would be put on Russia to negotiate, adding: 'We will continue to support Ukraine with force.'

Three people arrrested in Paris on suspicion of spying for Russia: The arrests of three suspects come amid increased fear of Russian interference across Europe. Le Monde

Russia's navy now has privileged access to the Gulf of Guinea: Le Monde reports according to the cooperation agreement between Russia and Togo, endorsed on November 19 during President Faure Gnassingbé's visit to Moscow, the two countries are now authorized to use each other's military ports.

Why China is reducing flights, upping retaliation against Japan: On today’s Big Take Asia podcast: Japan’s new prime minister recently raised the issue of support for Taiwan — and now China is retaliating economically. Bloomberg

Bloomberg: Japan-China spat clouds anime boom’s momentum in China

+ The China Film Administration has frozen approvals of new Japanese movie titles and postponed the release of at least six previously approved titles due to an escalating spat between Japan and China.

+ The spat, sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about Taiwan, has also led to the cancellation of more than 20 performances by Japanese musicians and a comedy group.

+ The restrictions on Japanese films and live events are weighing on Japanese companies' ambitions to expand in China, with the uncertainty making it difficult for them to predict when China's censors will impose further restrictions.


Bloomberg: Xi puts biggest US-China flashpoint back on agenda in Trump call

+ Xi Jinping and Donald Trump discussed a diplomatic row with Japan in a phone call, with Xi asserting China's sovereignty over Taiwan and framing it as part of the post-World War II international order.

+ Trump made no mention of Taiwan or Japan in his statement on the call, instead stressing progress on trade and calling relations with China "extremely strong!", but later briefed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on the conversation.

+ The Taiwan issue is expected to feature more prominently ahead of Trump's visit to Beijing in April, with several developments, including a potential transit visit by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and US weapon sales to Taiwan, risking derailing US-China ties.


China and Japan are in a showdown, with Trump in the middle: With Japan’s new leader refusing to back down from China’s show of force and claims on Taiwan, Xi Jinping picks up the phone to try to pry the US-Japan alliance apart. NYT

Beijing, we have a problem … China grapples with risks of space race: As it hastily sends its Shenzhou-22 spacecraft as a lifeboat for the ‘Heavenly Palace’ Tiangong station, China learns orbiting the Earth is full of complications. The Times

North Korea’s relentless nuclear march revealed by new photos: The Times reports Kim Jong-un’s expanding weapons factory has the capabilities to fulfil its leader’s nuclear dream, yet Donald Trump had the chance to shut it down.

Taiwan’s president: I will boost defense spending to protect our democracy: An unprecedented military buildup by Beijing threatens peace and stability in the region. Lai Ching-te 

Move aside Tokyo, the world has a new largest city: NBC News reports with an estimated population of nearly 42 million residents, Indonesian capital Jakarta soared from 33rd place to surpass Japan's Tokyo, according to a new United Nations report.

The fracturing of the world economy: Will the US or China abandon their current follies sooner? Martin Wolf

A shrinking world will turn our problems upside down: The political and economic priorities of a depopulating society could be very different from today’s. Sarah O’Connor

Britain’s most unpopular chancellor in decades faces another big test: Rachel Reeves, who has had a bruising tenure as the country’s top economic official, is set to announce tax and spending measures that risk stoking more discontent. NYT

Bloomberg: Reeves finally faces day of reckoning on her long-trailed budget

+ UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will announce her second budget, which she has drafted with bond-market investors and Labour Party backbenchers in mind.

+ Reeves needs to announce measures that will placate Labour MPs and gilt holders, and is expected to include a package of tax hikes, such as freezing income tax thresholds and imposing a mansion tax.

+ The budget will also focus on tackling the cost-of-living, with policies including hiking the national minimum wage and national living wage, freezing rail fares, and cutting energy bills
.

Labour’s budget will probably focus on short-term survival:
But it risks storing up greater economic problems for the future. Economist

How Ireland became the weak spot in Europe’s defences: With few ships and limited intelligence-sharing, some say the country cannot hope to protect itself or its infrastructure. FT

Bolsonaro to start serving 27-year sentence over coup plot: NYT reports Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to begin serving a prison term for conspiring to remain in power after losing the last election.

Shorter days, signs of fatigue: Trump faces realities of aging in office: President Trump has always used his stamina and energy as a political strength. But that image is getting harder for him to sustain. NYT

What’s going on with Trump’s gold ‘Oval Office’ sign? Design experts read the writing on the White House wall. WP

Trump weighing the ouster of Kash Patel, according to sources: MS Now reports Patel has come under scrutiny for his stewardship of bureau resources, including his girlfriend’s security detail and use of a government jet.

Next Fed chair? White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter.

Inside Atlanta’s first government-funded supermarket: Goal is for the store to become profitable without any government subsidy within three years. WSJ

‘Scraping for crumbs’: Americans squeezed by affordability crisis: Rising food, shelter, and healthcare costs are hitting hard in Bethlehem and the surrounding Lehigh Valley. FT

Grim retail sales data fuels concerns about health of US economy: FT reports consumer confidence drops to second-lowest level since pandemic as inflation lingers.

Retail sales in America rose just 0.2% month on month in September, below expectations, while consumer confidence fell to its second-lowest level in five years.

Market volatility underscores epic buildup of global risk: Some experts see a dangerous combination of factors reminiscent of practices that led to previous financial crises. NYT

The self-driving taxi revolution is here: It’s Waymo complicated than it looks. Economist

The auto industry was warned: Battery recycling was poisoning people: Despite decades of evidence on the toxic effects of lead battery recycling, companies opted not to act and blocked efforts to clean up the industry. NYT

Manufacturers start to phase out production of ‘forever chemicals’: FT reports groups including BASF respond to increased risk of litigation over ‘PFAS’ substances and regulatory intervention.

Chinese pharma is on the cusp of going global: Its fast-moving, cut-price drugmakers stand to make more money abroad than at home. Economist

AI investors want more making it and less faking it: Lackluster responses to Nvidia results and the chip maker’s deal with Anthropic point to a worsening environment. James Mackintosh

AI trade splinters as Google challenges Nvidia’s dominance: WSJ reports Alphabet took another step toward $4 trillion in market value, rising more than 1% to extend a monthslong rally.

Google has pierced Nvidia’s aura of invulnerability: But the search giant’s custom chips may prove tricky for others to adopt. Economist

Bloomberg: Google, the sleeping giant in global AI race, now ‘fully awake’

+ Google has released new AI software and struck deals, such as a chip tie-up with Anthropic PBC, that have reassured investors the company won’t easily lose to ChatGPT creator OpenAI and other rivals.

+ The company's newest multipurpose model, Gemini 3, won immediate praise for its capabilities in reasoning and coding, as well as niche tasks that have tripped up AI chatbots.

+ There are signs of rising demand for Google’s specialized AI chips, one of the few viable alternatives to Nvidia Corp.’s dominant gear, with a report that Meta Platforms Inc is in talks to use Google’s chips sending shares of its parent Alphabet Inc climbing.


Meta is in talks to use Google’s chips in challenge to Nvidia: WSJ reports a deal to use Google’s TPUs for Meta’s AI models could be worth billions and eat into Nvidia’s dominant market share.

Dell Technologies raises outlook as AI server shipments increase: WSJ reports the company anticipates full-year revenue of $111.2 billion to $112.2 billion as AI server shipments more than double.

Walmart is exploring bringing ads to Sparky, its new AI shopping agent: WSJ reports the retailer is looking for revenue opportunities in the shift to chatbot-guided e-commerce.

What is Agentic AI, and would you trust it to book a flight? Companies are racing to develop artificial intelligence tools that can make reservations for flights, hotels, and more on your behalf. Here’s what to know. NYT

Is ChatGPT conscious? Many users feel they’re talking to a real person. Scientists say it’s time to consider whether they’re onto something. NY Mag

HP to cut up to 10% of workforce as part of AI push: WSJ reports the computer and printer maker expects the restructuring to affect about 4,000 to 6,000 employees.

Four top contenders at Apple to succeed Tim Cook: John Ternus, Craig Federighi, Eddy Cue, and Greg ‘Joz’ Joswiak each oversee a different part of the company. WSJ

A ‘great unmasking’ on X is arming Americans with digital borders: The social media platform’s move to show users’ location is a great step toward online transparency. Sean Rad

Klarna launches stablecoin to cut cost of cross-border payments: FT reports digital token will aimed at merchants moving large sums and may also be offered to consumers.

Robinhood, Susquehanna to launch exchange to expand prediction markets offerings: WSJ reports the new exchange will help Robinhood offer additional prediction contracts tied to sports, elections, and other future events.

Bloomberg: Gambling, prediction markets create new credit risks, BofA warns

+ Bank of America is warning that the growth of prediction markets and sports gambling could lead consumers to take on too much debt and default on loans.

+ The bank's strategists point to the rising popularity of online betting and the creation of a new form of speculative engagement through platforms like Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket.

+ They warn that the negative financial effects of these wagers may be most pronounced for low-income consumers and especially for young men, and that firms like Bread Financial Holdings and OneMain Holdings are most exposed to these risks.


Pret A Manger’s recipe for a revival? Meal deals and £13 salads Bloomberg

The Vatican issued a new doctrinal note on marriage: “In Praise of Monogamy” describes marriage as an “indissoluble unity” between two people—a direct criticism of polygamy—and tells Catholics to marry only once.

Sir Richard Branson’s wife, Joan, dies aged 80: The Times reports Joan Templeman married the Virgin founder on his private island in 1989. He described her as ‘my rock’ as he announced her death

The 100 best comedy movies of all time Variety

With one movie and soundtrack, Jimmy Cliff changed reggae forever: The 1972 film “The Harder They Come” and its accompanying soundtrack brought the genre out of Jamaica and helped pave the way for future stars. NYT

France detains last suspected Louvre thief: WSJ reports authorities suspect he was the final member of a four-man team that made off with France’s crown jewels in broad daylight.

Forgotten Louvre security report highlighted specific balcony used by crown jewel thieves: Le Monde has learned that a 2018 security audit explicitly identified the balcony used by the thieves as a point of vulnerability, even noting the possibility that a freight lift could be used to access it.

TA: Elle Duncan is set to become the face of Netflix’s sports coverage: Sources

He’s college football’s most hated man—and he’s about to be the highest-paid coach of all time:
Lane Kiffin has enraged more fanbases than any coach in recent history. It hasn’t stopped him from emerging as the most coveted candidate in college football’s craziest hiring cycle. WSJ

Lane Kiffin’s messed-up situation is a product of college football’s messed-up calendar TA

What’s eating the Eagles? Struggling Super Bowl champ is in a ‘funk’: Philadelphia remains atop the NFC East, but a stalled offense leads to a brutal collapse in Dallas. Jason Gay

The MLB manager who has never been anywhere near pro baseball: The San Francisco Giants are betting their future on a veteran college skipper with absolutely zero experience in the majors or minors. WSJ

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal 

Send me A11 by email.

Caracal Daily | November 25

The end of the longest peace? One of history’s greatest achievements is under threat. Graham Allison + James A. Winnefeld, Jr.

Bloomberg: Ukraine and allies warn US against rush to end Russia’s war

+ Ukraine and its European allies signaled that key sticking points remained in US-brokered peace talks, despite senior officials hailing progress in winning more favorable terms for Kyiv.

+ German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a meeting in Geneva resolved “some issues”, but cast doubt on an initial Trump administration demand for Kyiv to cede territory and scale back its military.

+ Ukrainian and US officials said they had worked over details of a peace blueprint, narrowing it down to a new list of 19 proposals, with discussions to continue at the working level in the coming days.


Under pressure from Washington, Zelensky faces tough choices: Talks on the US plan began as Ukraine's domestic situation was deteriorating militarily, economically and politically. Weakened, the Ukrainian president is calling for unity to avoid an agreement that would jeopardize the country's sovereignty. Le Monde

For a weakened Zelensky, yielding to Trump is riskier than defiance: Most Ukrainians reject a surrender, and Zelensky courts crisis with his own military in case of major concessions to Russia. WSJ

US and Ukraine draft new 19-point peace plan but defer biggest decisions: The most politically sensitive elements are left for Trump and Zelenskyy to discuss. FT

Peace-plan negotiators leave thorniest issues to Trump and Zelensky to hash out: What happens to Ukrainian territory coveted by the Kremlin but not seized by Moscow’s troops is a major sticking point in any peace deal. WSJ

Ukraine has no choice but to engage with US peace plan: The American proposal is biased in favour of Russia. But it is not the final word. Gideon Rachman

The Trump team’s tortured path to a Ukraine peace plan: Washington’s mixed signals and shifting proposals unsettle allies as negotiations near a critical phase. FT

US, Ukraine move closer together on peace plan after lengthy talks: The document, which Europe and Ukraine said was too favorable to Russia, has been substantially changed, officials say. WP

As Ukraine sets ‘red lines,’ a US peace plan is slimmed down: Washington and Kyiv said that “highly productive” discussions over a proposal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine would continue. NYT

US seeks to reassure Ukraine and EU allies over Trump's plan: Le Monde reports the US secretary of state spoke of 'a tremendous amount of progress' during his talks on Sunday with Ukrainian and European officials. However, the counter-proposals from European capitals remained far removed from the plan put forward by the American president.

Putin’s win-win: Take a Russia-friendly peace deal, or fight on: The Kremlin’s leader is standing back as Ukraine and Europe scramble to negotiate changes to a US proposal to end the war. NYT

The wrong way to peace in Ukraine: It was revealed last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump have been secretly negotiating a settlement to the war in Ukraine. But this “peace” plan, if implemented, would encourage Russia to continue waging war in Europe, undermine the international order, and increase the risk of nuclear war. Timothy Snyder

Russia must get no amnesty in any peace deal for Ukraine: Gyunduz Mamedov, a lawyer-turned-soldier, fears the West will acquiesce in the Kremlin’s bid to undermine justice. Economist

The death of the diplomat in Trump’s America: Sidelining the state department and relying on dealmakers will come at a cost. Alec Russell

China’s Xi calls Trump to discuss Taiwan, Ukraine: WSJ reports the two leaders spoke as Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow try to hammer out a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hold first call since trade truce: FT reports conversation between US and Chinese presidents comes as Washington debates sale of more advanced AI chips.

Trump will visit China in April for meeting with Xi Jinping: NYT reports President Trump said he would visit Beijing for the first time since returning to office after holding a call with Mr. Xi, China’s leader.

Nikkei: Trump says he'll visit Beijing in April and host Xi for state visit next year

China’s Communist Party wants positive energy only, please:
But enforced online optimism is no remedy for economic gloom. Economist

Can the Chinese economy match Aruba’s? Xi Jinping has lofty goals for 2035. But China faces a real problem. Economist

Japan’s new leader infuriated Beijing. She isn’t backing down. Workaholic Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is riding high despite the perils of a fight with Beijing. WSJ

Japan set to name AI, nuclear fusion among 6 strategic technology fields: Sectors to be eligible for increased tax benefits to attract private-sector funds. Nikkei

North Korean elite wear fur coats and luxury brands as poor freeze: The country’s small trading class is increasingly allowing itself conspicuous displays of wealth while the majority of citizens struggle for food and warmth. The Times

Europe risks going the way of imperial China: Once a proud power, Qing dynasty fell behind in technology to be exploited by the West — now the roles are reversing. William Hague

Chinese exporters charge Russia more for war supplies: FT reports price increases show that Western restrictions are limiting Moscow’s capabilities, Bank of Finland research finds.

AFP: France wants to bring voluntary military service back

France and Gabon seek ‘new beginning’ in relations:
AFP reports French President Emmanuel Macron began a state visit to Gabon to renew diplomatic, military and economic ties with President Brice Oligui Nguema’s post-coup government. France has reduced its military presence but remains a key partner, backing projects like the Transgabonais railway renovation. Both leaders stressed a 'new beginning' in bilateral relations.

Macron cements ties with 'new Gabon' led by coup leader: Le Monde reports after the G20 summit in Johannesburg, the French president made a stop in Libreville on Sunday. His warm welcome from Brice Oligui Nguema stood in sharp contrast to the anti-French sentiment spreading across the continent.

South Africa salvages the reputation of a faltering G20 summit: Le Monde reports boycotted by the United States, the summit still managed to adopt a final declaration. 'The G20 may be reaching the end of a cycle,' Emmanuel Macron wondered.

Can the world move on without the US? G20 leaders gave it a shot. With the United States boycotting the summit, other nations sought to strike new deals, and some took a tougher tone with President Trump. NYT

Why ‘Henrys’ are turning their back on the Tories: The Conservative party has lost touch with affluence — and with the generation that would like to enjoy its benefits. Henry Hill

Bloomberg: Heathrow’s £49 billion third-runway project backed by ministers

A united Ireland referendum must not be ‘another Brexit’, analysts say:
Two leading journalists from both sides of the border warn against another ‘vague, thumbs up-thumbs down’ vote. Guardian

Belgium faces nationwide disruption as unions strike: DW reports Belgium is set for a new phase of labor unrest as unions launch coordinated walkouts against the government's savings plans. The action, already affecting rail passengers, is set to widen to include schools and airports.

Saudi Arabia opens property sector to foreigners, as agents eye Asians: Nikkei reports new market cheaper than Dubai, where Indians, Pakistanis, and Chinese are top investors.

Sudan's RSF declares truce after army rejects US plan: AFP reports Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on Monday announced a unilateral three-month ceasefire a day after the army dismissed a US truce proposal from international mediators.

Sudan's displaced and exhausted doctors treat fellow El-Fasher survivors: AFP reports overwhelmed health workers rushed from patient to patient in makeshift tents in Sudan, trying to help even though they too had barely escaped the fall of El-Fasher to paramilitary forces.

Several flights were cancelled after Hayli Gubbi, a volcano in northern Ethiopia, erupted for the first time in nearly 12,000 years.

Brazil is embracing its African roots: It is the country that imported by far the largest number of African slaves. Economist

Brazil's Supreme Court upholds Bolsonaro jailing after 'attempt to flee': Le Monde reports Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled Monday that the former president had 'willfully and consciously violated the electronic monitoring equipment,' as he appeals a 27-year sentence for plotting a failed coup.

Brazil defied Trump and won: President Trump tried to keep the former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, out of prison. He failed, and now he is moving on. WP

Trump’s tariffs are pushing Canada closer to China and India: WP reports Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to double non-US exports by 2035. That means making up with two of Canada’s greatest adversaries.

Trade chaos leads small businesses to rethink US relationships: From Sweden to Brazil, six small companies talk about how they are communicating with their US customers amid uncertainty over Trump’s changing tariffs. NYT

Global trade overdependent on US and China, WTO head says: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, head of the World Trade Organization, spoke to DW about the risks of global trade's "overdependence" on the US and China and the potential benefits of AI.

US deems Venezuela's 'Cartel de los Soles' as terror group: DW reports Donald Trump has not ruled out taking military action against Venezuela, which would be a major escalation of the monthslong operation that has included a military buildup in the Caribbean.

Top US military officer to visit Caribbean as Trump pressures Venezuela: NYT reports Gen. Dan Caine is making the trip as President Trump is said to have approved plans for covert action in Venezuela.

More Americans are getting their power shut off, as unpaid bills pile up: WP reports average electricity costs have risen 11 percent since January, more than three times the rate of inflation. “For the first time, we’re behind on all of our utilities," one Ohioan said.

Affordability is Trump’s problem now: Like every president, he will have to own the political consequences of rising prices. Rana Foroohar

WSJ: Comey and James cases dismissed in blow to DOJ

AP: Pentagon says it’s investigating Sen. Mark Kelly over video urging troops to defy ‘illegal orders’

Reuters: Trump seizes control of Republicans' 2026 election strategy with his presidency on the line

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s exit shows Trump still has a firm grip on his party:
WSJ reports the Georgia congresswoman’s resignation after crossing the president on the Epstein files underscores his power to make or break careers.

Amid MAGA fight over AI, Trump allies urge focus on workers: WP reports a conservative initiative highlights GOP divisions over tech regulation, with some advocating for deregulation and others prioritizing worker protection.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao accused of facilitating payments to Hamas: FT reports crypto tycoon pardoned by Donald Trump faces US court complaint from families of victims of October 7 attack.

BBC launches hunt for new boss as Trump row rumbles on: AFP reports the BBC on Monday formally launched its search for a new chief following the resignation of Tim Davie over a misleading edit of Donald Trump that sparked a row with the US president.

Shares in Novo Nordisk fell by as much as 11% after it reported that semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, failed to treat Alzheimer’s disease in late-stage trials.

BHP’s failed bids for Anglo lay bare mining group’s struggles to find growth: FT reports industry stunned after company makes fresh attempt to buy smaller rival then walks away just days later 

Inside Marriott’s disastrous bet on short-term rental company Sonder: WSJ reports the investment added rooms for the hotel chain, but the apartment-rental firm collapsed under the high-cost leases. “Everything kind of went straight downhill,” said one manager.

The AI industry is built on a big unproven assumption: In addition to the projections about reaching artificial general intelligence and replacing millions of human workers, there’s the mundane matter of how long AI chips will last. Bloomberg

Fortune: ‘I’m deeply uncomfortable’: Anthropic CEO warns that a cadre of AI leaders, including himself, should not be in charge of the technology’s future

OpenAI, Intuit strike strategic partnership:
WSJ reports Intuit sees the opportunity to expose its products, such as TurboxTax and QuickBooks, to a broader range of potential users on ChatGPT.

Bloomberg: Anthropic says its new AI model is better at coding and office work

Cracks are appearing in OpenAI’s dominant façade:
A deal between Anthropic, Microsoft, and Nvidia makes AI more circular. Economist

Amazon says to invest $50 billion in US government AI infrastructure: Le Monde reports according to a statement, the initiative will give US agencies access to advanced AI services to develop software for missions ranging from cybersecurity to scientific research.

Amazon’s X-energy gets backing from Jane Street as investors bet big on nuclear: FT reports reactor developer closes fundraising round as markets expect atomic energy will power the AI boom.

AI delay may affect Europe's future, says ECB chief: AFP reports European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde warned Monday that a delay in embracing artificial intelligence could "jeopardise" the continent's future, urging barriers to its adoption to be swiftly lifted.

New AI model enhances diagnosis of rare diseases: FT reports PopEVE system outperformed rivals such as Google DeepMind’s AlphaMissense.

The state of AI: Don’t share your secrets with a chatbot: Tech companies are harnessing the language of relationships to harvest data. FT

Qatar pours millions into British investor in quantum start-ups: The Times reports venture capital firm Firgun raises $70 million from backers including the Qatar Investment Authority as it seeks to build funding for UK computing firms.

The droids taking over one of England’s strangest towns: Want to glimpse our robot-filled future? Just go to Milton Keynes. NY Mag

NASA and Boeing scale back Starliner missions after fumbled astronaut flight: WSJ reports the space vehicle will launch again, without astronauts, in April on a cargo mission to the International Space Station.

Who will win the trillion-dollar robotaxi race? It’s Waymo complicated than it looks. Economist

An auto holy grail: Motors that don’t rely on Chinese rare earths: Weary of being captive to geopolitics, car companies are looking for ways to replace powerful rare-earth magnets in electric motors. NYT

Italian fashion titan Zegna to hand over power: AFP reports Gildo Zegna, grandson of the eponymous fashion brand's founder Ermenegildo Zegna, will hand over the reins of the group to its finance director and the fourth generation of family leaders in January, the group announced Monday.

Being addicted to Bravo was a hobby. Now it’s a career. At BravoCon, podcasters, meme-makers and TikTok recappers are building careers off the TV network and rewriting what fandom looks like. WP

Social media is dead — none of my friends are posting any more: ‘Everyone is scared that something they share might attract the attention of social media’s angry hordes, always ready to accuse.’ Caitlin Moran

AFP: Reggae legend Jimmy Cliff dead at 81

The standoff that brought the Big Ten’s $2.4 billion deal to a screeching halt:
Despite pressure from commissioner Tony Petitti, Michigan regents pushed back on a private-investment pact worth at least $100 million to each school. WSJ

Shedeur Sanders’s first NFL test was a complete disaster. His next one flashed hope. Following his draft-day nosedive, the famous rookie for the Cleveland Browns flopped in his debut. But in his first career start, he flashed a glimpse of why evaluators were so intrigued by him. WSJ

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly. 

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal 

Send me A11 by email.