Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
January 15, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
Navigating the new corporate-Trump dynamic: A geopolitical business perspective
Looking at Bloomberg's stark cover image, a chaotic roller coaster representing the business's wild ride through another Trump presidency, this is a fundamental shift in how executives approach corporate-government relations.
This isn't business as usual. We're witnessing what historian Jonathan Levy of Sciences Po in Paris calls "unprecedented personalization of government and business dealings."
What I'm seeing on the ground
From my vantage point, advising Fortune 1000 companies and emerging tech leaders, I observe executives constantly recalibrating their strategies in real-time. The traditional playbook—the one that assumed institutional norms, policy predictability, and arms-length government-business relations—no longer applies. Trump has introduced what I call "patrimonial state capitalism," where loyalty to persona supersedes loyalty to laws and institutions.
Consider these moves in recent days: A proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates that stunned Wall Street, pressure on energy companies to rebuild Venezuela's decrepit oil infrastructure, and a criminal investigation into the Fed Chair. These aren't isolated incidents. They represent a systematic rewriting of the rules of engagement between the Oval Office and corporate America.
The strategic framework I'm recommending
Drawing on my experience in presidential campaigns, energy regulatory environments, and emerging technology policy, I'm advising clients to adopt a multi-touch, expand the echo chamber communications strategy.
1. Strategic access isn't optional; it's essential: I'm helping clients build what Bloomberg calls "back channels," but I frame it differently: strategic stakeholder mapping. Access to Trump remains concentrated, but pathways exist through Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, both finance veterans who understand business language.
2. Education over confrontation: Bloomberg explored how Target CEO Brian Cornell's approach to dealing with the White House exemplifies what I advocate: lead with data, frame around presidential priorities, and use visual communication. Trump famously doesn't read briefing books, but he prides himself on his business instincts. I'm coaching executives to distill complex geopolitical and economic issues into compelling, visually supported narratives that align with Trump's stated goals: job creation, American manufacturing, and Main Street economics.
3. The medium shapes the message: Bloomberg wrote how Coca-Cola's James Quincey and Eli Lilly's Dave Ricks both chose Fox Business to announce major initiatives. This isn't coincidental, it's smart. I'm advising clients on media strategy optimization in an environment where conservative influencers and X form a coordinated amplification machine for administration messaging. Companies must understand that traditional media relations strategies don't capture the attention of this administration. I'm helping clients develop dual-track communication approaches, one for conventional stakeholders, another optimized for the MAGA media ecosystem.
4. Everything is indeed a transaction—but understand the currency: Bloomberg quotes BGR consultant David Urban, who cites a Beltway adage: “The first rule of horse trading is to have a horse.” This adage resonates with my experience in government relations. But here's what I'm seeing that goes beyond Bloomberg's analysis: the currency isn't just financial, it's political capital, media narrative, and symbolic gestures. Intel's handling of US government intervention, sponsorships of America's 250th anniversary celebration, and donations to the $400 million White House ballroom project represent strategic positioning investments. I'm helping clients evaluate which commitments provide genuine protection versus which create dependency without corresponding benefits.
The geopolitical business reality I'm tracking
Bloomberg's article focuses on domestic corporate strategy, but I'm advising clients on the international implications. Trump's interventionist approach doesn't stop at the US border; it reshapes global capital flows and supply chains, causes headaches in the capitols of allies and enemies alike, and alters the balance of power between business, regulators, and governments worldwide.
Critical observations from my work:
+ US-China commercial relations are being restructured through personalized diplomacy rather than institutional frameworks
+ Technology policy increasingly depends on individual corporate relationships with the administration rather than sectoral regulation
+ Trade policy has become a tool of political leverage rather than economic optimization
What I'm telling my clients right now
As I prepare executive briefing and intelligence memos, I emphasize five realities:
1. Scenario planning is your primary defense: I'm helping clients map out multiple futures—not just optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, but discontinuous possibilities. What happens if Trump's approval continues falling? How do midterm election outcomes shift the dynamic? What if monetary policy independence collapses? What if allies sell US bonds?
2. Communication strategy must be dynamic, not static: My "Always Be Communicating" philosophy takes on new urgency. Companies can't wait for crises to develop communication plans. I'm working with clients to establish real-time response protocols that allow rapid pivots as circumstances shift.
3. Your stakeholder map just got more complex: Traditional corporate advocacy through the Business Roundtable and Chamber of Commerce remains essential, but insufficient. I'm helping clients identify emerging power centers and build high-low relationships before they're needed.
4. Brand reputation + political positioning are now inseparable: The risk isn't just to share price—it's to corporate reputation with employees, customers, and investors who may have very different political orientations than the administration. I'm advising clients on triangulation strategies that maintain government relationships without alienating other critical stakeholders.
5. This isn't temporary—prepare for massive structural change: Whether Team Trump wins reelection or not, this personalized, interventionist approach to business-government relations has demonstrated its viability. I'm helping clients build capabilities and strategies that work in this environment while remaining adaptable to potential shifts.
The bottom line for global investors + executives
Bloomberg's assessment is accurate: We're dealing with the most interventionist US president in almost a century. But here's what I add from my geopolitical strategy perspective: this moment represents a fundamental test of corporate political intelligence and holistic communications.
The companies that thrive in this new paradigm won't be those with the best legal arguments or the most principled positions. They'll be organizations that combine strategic access, sophisticated communication, scenario planning, and genuine flexibility. They'll understand that in this new environment, relationships matter more than regulations, narratives matter more than norms, and adaptability matters more than ideology.
As Bloomberg notes, "A playbook only works when there are clear rules for the game, but Trump can change them at any time."
We're not on a predictable track. We're on that chaotic roller coaster Bloomberg depicted. But with the proper strategic framework, communication approach, and geopolitical awareness, companies can navigate this environment not just defensively, but in ways that position them for whatever comes next.
-Marc
*** Caracal Global Daily ***
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
America is the sole superpower again: China could have been a contender, but Trump has led the US to a new ‘unipolar moment.’ Arthur Herman
In the face of Donald Trump's imperialism, realism means defending the law as an indispensable tool: As the president shows his eagerness to dismantle any form of checks and balances both within and beyond the US borders, the principles of law paradoxically endure. Gilles Paris
The world’s two largest economies should slow their investment race: The United States and China are locked in a race for technological dominance, fueled by unprecedented investment. But this quest clashes with other economic objectives, such as lower inflation and financial stability, leaving both economies exposed to domestic pressures and global spillovers. Moreno Bertoldi + Marco Buti
+ China’s trade surplus reached a record high of $1.2trn in 2025 according to data from its customs agency. Exports grew by 5.5% from 2024 despite Trump’s aggressive tariff policy choking off demand from America.
US-China AI race extends to space-based data centers: Chinese, American tech companies vie to put solar-powered computing networks in orbit. Nikkei
A gangster’s-eye view of global power: At the heart of US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is the belief that the world can be carved up among major powers, with the United States free to act with impunity in its “backyard.” In reality, this approach is bound to fuel instability, fracture markets, and undermine America’s economic interests. Jayati Ghosh
Denmark boosts military presence on Greenland: FT reports meeting with senior US figures follows escalating Donald Trump campaign to take Greenland.
Denmark and allies boost Greenland military footprint as Trump ramps up pressure: Politico reports the deployment comes as US President Donald Trump intensifies talk of taking over the Arctic island.
France to send troops to Greenland for joint exercise with several European countries: Le Monde reports that the move follows Denmark's announcement that it will immediately increase its military presence in Greenland. After meeting with the US vice president and secretary of state, the Danish foreign minister said it was 'clear that the president has this wish of conquering Greenland.'
Denmark, Greenland failed to win the Trump team over: Politico reports the US allies hoped meeting senior Trump officials would diffuse tensions and tough talk on Greenland. It didn’t.
Greenland meeting ends with ‘fundamental disagreement’: WP reports diplomats from Denmark and Greenland agreed to set up a “high-level working group” after meeting with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but said there was little agreement so far.
Trump not persuaded to abandon Greenland pursuit after White House talks: WSJ reports senior officials from the US, Greenland, and Denmark met in the midst of a diplomatic standoff over the territory.
+ “We still have a fundamental disagreement… We didn’t manage to change the American position.” -- Danish diplomat Lars Lokke Rasmussen after meeting with Vice President JD Vance about Greenland.
+ Trump doubled down on his demand for the US to acquire Greenland, saying Washington needs the region for its Golden Dome project and obliquely dangling the prospect of NATO suffering without the US as a member.
+ A new Quinnipiac poll finds an overwhelming majority of Americans — 86 percent — oppose the United States trying to take Greenland by military force, while just 9 percent support it.
+ One estimate of what it would take for the US to purchase Greenland pegs the price tag as high as $700 billion
Denmark’s Army chief says he’s ready to defend Greenland: Danish forces are moving to the island to show NATO—and Trump—that they’re serious about security. Isaac Stanley-Becker
‘We’re not stupid’: What Greenlanders would say to Trump: A visit to Greenland reveals a swirl of feelings as people nervously await talks with the Trump administration about the island’s future. NYT
Iran's crackdown reaches unprecedented levels: 'There were layers of bodies stacked on top of each other': Point-blank shootings at protests, hangars filled with corpses, and omnipresent security forces: Multiple accounts gathered by Le Monde attest to the unparalleled violence used by authorities to suppress the demonstrations.
Donald Trump says he has received assurances ‘killing in Iran is stopping’: FT reports president declines to rule out military action after Washington evacuated personnel from Qatar command centre.
Trump says Iran has stopped killings as US weighs military options: WP reports the Pentagon earlier had moved troops and equipment away from some facilities in the Middle East, echoing measures taken before US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year.
Trump says he has many military options on Iran. He doesn’t. Politico reports that many of the troops and ships once at the president’s disposal have shifted to the Caribbean.
CNN: Trump feels obligated to take action on Iran as administration weighs risks of retaliation
Bloomberg: Iran closes Tehran airspace to flights as tensions with US mount
US personnel evacuated from Qatar base amid Iran tensions: Politico reports the move comes as the Trump administration weighs options to punish Tehran over its crackdown on protesters.
Trump’s Gulf allies do not want him to bomb Iran: NYT reports that while several of the Gulf Arab countries harbor little love for Iran, they worry that the consequences of rising tensions could blow back on them.
Israel waits on US to settle ‘unfinished business’ with Iran: Any action against Tehran could tip the regional balance further in Israel’s favour, even as some US interests are put at risk. FT
The obscure bank collapse that sent Iran into a tailspin: Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis. WSJ
Zelensky to declare 'state of emergency' in Ukraine's energy sector: Le Monde reports Moscow has hit Ukraine with daily drone and missile barrages in recent months, targeting energy infrastructure and cutting power and heating in the frigid depths of winter. Zelensky said Wednesday that he ordered the government to scale up efforts to get support from allies and deregulate backup energy supply.
EU says Ukraine will spend most of €90 billion loan on military needs: Le Monde reports Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that two-thirds of the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine will be spent on EU-made weapons, and that Kyiv would only need to reimburse it once Moscow pays war reparations.
Steve Witkoff + Jared Kushner are seeking to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future, as Donald Trump’s envoys work to advance a peace agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.
The UK needs a Bletchley 2.0: As cyber threats proliferate, we need to double down on maths to protect security and boost economic growth. Muffy Calder
Keir Starmer tells MPs he is open to social media ban for young people: Guardian reports PM says he is alarmed at reports about children’s screen time and has shifted position on Australian-style policy.
How Nigel Farage gets away with it: His two great liabilities, Brexit and Donald Trump, are unmentionable in British politics. Janan Ganesh
Reform UK risks blowing a once-in-a-century moment: Nigel Farage’s party is turning into a bunch of bed-blockers. Economist
US to unveil Gaza governance plan despite concerns over Hamas: WSJ reports Hamas hasn’t yet begun disarming, a fact some officials believe could imperil the peace plan.
Tony Blair poised for role in Gaza governance: Politico reports the former British leader will join an executive committee attached to a larger Board of Peace that will include sitting heads of state.
Behind Takaichi's decision to call a snap Japan election: The prime minister skipped consultations to avoid opposition within the ruling LDP. Nikkei
Analysis: China's tough stance backfires, boosting Japan PM's popularity: Emboldened by a high approval rating, Sanae Takaichi intends to call a snap election. Nikkei
Straits Times: Jamming to the same beat: Japan, S. Korea leaders signal unity amid shared challenges
South Korean prosecutors seek death penalty for Yoon Suk Yeol over martial law declaration: Le Monde reports prosecutors argued that the former conservative South Korean president was guilty of leading an insurrection 'in order to remain in power by usurping judicial and legislative authority.' The verdict is expected on February 19.
Straits Times: Indonesia asked to buy US-made drones for surveillance in waters near South China Sea
Vietnam’s most powerful man channels China’s Xi with eyes on twin prize: To Lam is seeking a pair of roles ahead of a crucial Communist Party Congress to consolidate power, as his reforms draw praise from business but meet resistance within party ranks. Bloomberg
Every country for itself: The chilling message in Mark Carney’s Taiwan snub: Canada has been outspoken in its support for Greenland amid Trump’s annexation rhetoric. Will Carney follow suit with Taiwan and China? Toronto Star
Mark Carney lands in China, hoping to ease years of distrust while boosting trade: A red carpet lined with a military guard, a small girl offering flowers, and no other fanfare marked the beginning of the first official visit of a Canadian prime minister to Beijing in more than seven years. Toronto Star
US blows up China’s Latin America ambitions with Maduro Ouster: Beijing recalculating its policy of making inroads in Washington’s backyard after its top ally there was deposed. WSJ
Why is Putin silent on Venezuela? While Russian President Vladimir Putin certainly does not relish appearing weak, nor does he want to risk exacerbating tensions with the US. But his willingness to be pushed around has its limits, and it is entirely possible that Donald Trump's administration will prove pushy enough to find out what those limits are. Nina L. Khrushcheva
US races to sell Venezuelan oil, transforming ties with former foe: NYT reports US officials brokered the sale of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Venezuelan oil to stabilize the country’s economy after capturing its president.
Venezuela suffers from a century-long curse. Will the US inherit it? The country’s biggest problem may not be President Trump. NYT
Cuba’s regime is in dire straits: After the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the regime that controls the island is particularly vulnerable. Economist
Trump tells Cuba to 'make a deal, before it is too late': BAT reports US president warns Communist leaders in Cuba that flow of Venezuelan oil and cash will stop; "I strongly suggest they make a deal, before it is too late," declares Trump on social media.
JPMorgan, Citi in talks to finance US$1-billion Argentina pipeline: BAT reports a group of banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup, are in talks to lend natural gas producers in Argentina roughly US$1 billion to build a cross-country pipeline.
World Bank trims Argentina’s 2026 GDP forecast to 4%: BAT reports the multilateral lender attributes the slower growth prediction to domestic political uncertainty during the electoral period.
State Department halts immigrant visa processing for 75 countries: Politico reports the pause will not directly affect processing of tourist visas or visas for attendees of the World Cup, although those travelers could face other restrictions.
+ According to Fox News, the measure is set to affect citizens of Somalia, Russia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, and Yemen, among others, but does not affect tourist, business, or other visas.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Trump in Detroit calls for 10% credit card interest rate cap amid new agenda: MIRS reports that while speaking to Metro Detroit's business community this afternoon, President Donald Trump called for credit card companies to place a 10% one-year cap on interest rates, previewed a "healthcare affordability framework" he's proposing next week, and further bashed the Federal Reserve.
MIRS spoke to Marc Ross, a Detroit-based geopolitical strategist, who is also the founder of Caracal Global – a geopolitical business communications firm.
Ross thinks one of the challenges Trump faces is that he's a total day-trader, not thinking long-term.
"He thinks very short-term, talking about the price of gas at the pump, rattling off all these weird data numbers. I think he doesn't do a good job of managing expectations, and he gets himself into trouble," Ross said, "The healthcare issue does need to be fixed, but that's not something that's going to happen in the next six months."
He said the Detroit Economic Club is one of the country's premier economic clubs, with the venue serving as a "really highbrow, kind of thought-leadership platform."
"This speech is more of a campaign-style speech. (It) wasn't totally appropriate. I think he missed an opportunity to kind of be a little more elevated, kind of lay out a grander vision where he's taking the country and the world," Ross said, "I think that was a missed opportunity."
Ford suspends factory worker for heckling Trump: WSJ reports president responded by raising his middle finger, video shows.
The Hill: Ford worker who called Trump ‘pedophile protector’: ‘No regrets whatsoever’
+ "Workers should never be subjected to vulgar language or behavior by anyone—including the President of the United States." -- UAW Vice President Laura Dickerson
+ Donations surge for Ford worker who triggered Trump with ‘pedo protector.' The GoFundMe is aimed at helping the suspended factory worker pay bills and forcing Trump to release the Epstein files.
Trump is making ‘Abolish ICE’ a mainstream position: Democrats got burned by “Defund the Police.” This is different. Ross Barkan
WP: New York governor will push for state lawsuits against ICE agents
Bloomberg: Joe Rogan assails ‘gestapo’ ICE as even Trump fans turn into critics
+ A new CNN poll finds that Americans think ICE’s actions are making cities less safe instead of safer, 51% to 31%.
FBI searches home of Washington Post journalist in a leak investigation: NYT reports it is exceedingly rare, even in investigations of the unauthorized disclosure of classified information, for federal agents to search a reporter’s home.
FBI executes search warrant at Washington Post reporter’s home: WP reports the search came as part of an investigation into a government contractor accused of illegally retaining classified government materials.
Bloomberg: Trump’s credit card threat casts shadow over Wall Street’s profit parade
Republicans block effort to check Trump’s power in Venezuela: NYT reports GOP leaders succeeded in pressuring fellow senators who initially supported the measure that would have limited President Trump’s military authority in Venezuela.
Detroit News: Rogers, Stevens tied in Michigan US Senate matchup, poll finds
California begins probe of Musk's Grok over sexualized AI images: AFP reports California launched an investigation Wednesday into Elon Musk's xAI after its Grok chatbot generated sexualized images of women and children, as European officials said they were assessing corrective measures promised by the company.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
NASA space station medical evacuation of astronauts gets underway: NYT reports four astronauts departed from the ISS about a month earlier than scheduled because a crew member, who was not identified, has an undisclosed medical issue.
Can AI generate new ideas? Systems like OpenAI’s GPT-5 are accelerating research in math, biology, and chemistry. But there is a debate over whether it can do that work on its own. NYT
How Claude reset the AI race John Herrman
OpenAI forges multibillion-dollar computing partnership with Cerebras: WSJ reports the ChatGPT-maker is racing to secure more computing power, especially for responding to user queries.
OpenAI agrees $10bn AI infrastructure deal with start-up Cerebras: FT reports multiyear agreement with Nvidia rival adds to ChatGPT maker’s spree of recent computing tie-ups.
Google taps emails and YouTube history in push for personalised AI: Tech group plans to leverage its span of popular products to gain an advantage over rivals. FT
Matthew McConaughey trademarks himself to fight AI misuse: Actor plans to use trademarks of himself saying ‘Alright, alright, alright’ and staring at a camera to combat AI fakes in court. WSJ
Tesla’s full self-driving system will only be available via subscription, Musk says: WSJ reports the announcement comes after Tesla, once the top seller of electric vehicles, lost its crown to China’s BYD.
How Saks Fifth Avenue’s owner went bust: The posh department-store group has itself to blame. Economist
*** Culture ***
Sting ‘has repaid former bandmates £600,000’ in royalties row: The Times reports the Police singer is being sued by Stewart Copeland and Andrew Summers over the distribution of money from digital streaming.
Bob Weir was the boomer who did it best: The Grateful Dead guitarist held the band together in its prime and steered it through a storied afterlife. Andi Zeisler
Paris launches project for Montparnasse renovation: The architect Renzo Piano unveiled his new renovation plan for the shopping center. Construction is hoped to start in 2028. Le Monde
How bagels conquered the world: Despite rampant “carbphobia”, the circular bread is on a roll. Economist
*** Sport ***
Bloomberg: Miami Dolphins owner Ross offered up to $15 billion for team
Athletic: UCF, others tout no state income tax as college football portal season gets weird
Athletic: Ford executives hit back at Cadillac’s F1 jabs: ‘They’re not running a Cadillac engine’
+ Ford feels differently, saying to The Athletic of Cadillac F1, “If anything looks like a marketing effort, that does.”
Ford versus GM: America’s great automotive rivalry comes to F1 in 2026 Athletic
Chris Richards, who over the last year emerged as a mainstay for both Crystal Palace and the US men’s national team, has been named US Soccer’s 2025 Male Player of the Year.
FIFA says it received more than 500 million requests for 2026 World Cup tickets during the month-long application window, which closed on Tuesday.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal