Caracal Global Daily
March 9, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Oil crisis hits $100+ per barrel — war economics rewrite supply chains: The Iranian conflict has pushed crude well above $100 for the first time in four years. Major producers are cutting output amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't an isolated energy shock—this is a supply chain disruption rippling through manufacturing, shipping costs, and Q2 margin forecasts globally.
2. Iran's hardline succession signals defiance, not negotiation: Mojtaba Khamenei was named as the supreme leader, cementing control with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This appointment confirms regime stability through the military apparatus, not political liberalization. Watch for escalation in both rhetoric and capability.
3. US Political fracturing on war at home creates domestic vulnerability: Republicans breaking ranks on Iran conflict. Democrats are mobilizing messaging for Election 2026 around the cost of living and energy prices. Oil prices will become an electoral issue—and Trump's war mandate faces genuine Congressional resistance.
4. China observing, learning, positioning for advantage: Beijing is watching how the US military commitment in Iran strains American force projection. Trump-Xi summit hangs in the balance. China sees the US distraction as a strategic opportunity to reset its negotiating position on trade and Taiwan.
5. Desalination plants, shipping routes, and European supply chains under pressure: Strikes on critical infrastructure extending conflict beyond military targets. Global energy security, commodity pricing, and European energy independence are being rewritten in real time.
*** Ross Rant ***
Ideas are rarely built in a boardroom
A boardroom is a place of CYA, one-upmanship, committees, factions, spreadsheets, cost allocation analysis, and financial statements.
A boardroom is ties, suits, starched collars, wingtips, multiple chairs that are hardly ever comfortable, and massive tables that ensure friction.
At one startup I worked at, when the founders gleefully told me they had purchased a proper boardroom conference room setup, I knew our days were numbered.
Boardrooms are about hierarchy, who sits where, who can speak when, status, seniority, and pressure to maintain a severe meeting vibe. Far more important is to create an environment and a culture where everyone feels safe being heard and where unfamiliar concepts are welcome. This is precisely why geopolitical strategy—the thinking that separates companies that anticipate disruption from those that react to it—rarely emerges from traditional boardroom settings. When tariff cycles, supply chain disruption, and government relationships become operational imperatives, the hierarchies and constraints of the boardroom often stifle the unconventional thinking required to navigate them.
Caracal Global exists to solve exactly this problem: to bring geopolitical intelligence and strategic thinking into the conversation outside the formal structures where traditional boardroom politics take hold. For Fortune 1,000 leaders navigating the intersection of globalization and American politics, the best strategic insights happen when you step outside the usual room—and have a guide who understands both the threats and the opportunities.
The best ideas come when you step out of the office.
For me, it could be a walkabout, on a chairlift, watching a documentary, listening to jazz, seeing world-class art, or being behind the wheel.
One time on a drive through the Virginia countryside, I had conjured such a brilliant idea that it cost me a speeding ticket. I was so in the zone, DJ Doran: Monuments blasting from the sound system, high on Red Bull and PayDay. There it was—boom—a brilliant idea literally speeding across my mind. The state trooper was unfazed by my sensational out-of-the-boardroom idea-generation tool; he told me to slow down and pay the fine.
What's your idea generation tool?
By stepping out of the boardroom and into a more realistic, real-life setting, you allow yourself the freedom to generate new ideas.
I grew up with an active family dinner table discussion. Growing up, we had to go around the table and announce five things we learned that day. This taught me that regardless of age or station, all voices at that table were equal, and we were encouraged to share ideas and concepts from politics to sport, from business to culture—frankly, anything. The exercise wasn't about the content but about the ability and freedom to recognize and share ideas.
Knowing when or where your next great idea might come is hard. But stepping out and embracing the life around me has been a positive way to generate new ideas. From a walkabout on the shores of the Potomac River or a drive on VA State Route 20, it won't be in a bored room.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Trump comes under pressure to address gas prices, Iran war strategy: WSJ reports some Republicans warn that Americans have a limited tolerance for pain at the gasoline pump.
America chose this war — and must now choose how to end it: However this conflict concludes, the US and Iran’s new leaders will have to revisit the same issues that sparked hostilities. Richard Haass
Netanyahu finally got what he wanted on Iran by appealing to audience of one: With President Trump on board, Israel and the US launched a battle to finish the Islamic Republic. WSJ
For Israel’s Netanyahu, Trump grants wishes, but his support carries risks: WP reports Trump and Netanyahu, two political high rollers, are seen as more of an odd couple than Roosevelt-Churchill or Clinton-Blair. The war in Iran is their biggest gamble yet.
WSJ: The long-feared Persian Gulf oil squeeze is upon us
CNBC: Dow futures tumble 800 points as US oil tops $100 a barrel to begin the week’s trading
Oil prices are barreling toward all-time highs: WSJ reports US oil futures have followed their biggest weekly rise ever by surging as much as 20% in Sunday evening trading, vaulting above $100 a barrel for the first time since war in Europe rattled energy markets in 2022.
War with Iran spreading economic damage far beyond oil and gas markets: WP reports the conflict has hit Europe and Asia harder than the United States, with rising shipping costs and energy prices.
The Times: Trump calls $100 a barrel for oil ‘small price’
Oil prices surge above $100 a barrel for the first time in almost four years: NYT reports the jump was a sign of growing concern that the war in the Middle East will take a toll on energy supplies. Stock futures fell about 1.5 percent.
Bloomberg: Oil surges above $100, stocks tumble as Iran war persists
Oil surges past $100 a barrel for the first time in four years: FT reports traders are betting a widening conflict in the Middle East will lead to a weeks-long disruption in supply
Energy Secretary says tankers could start moving soon: NYT reports: “We’re not too long, I think, before you will see more regular resumption of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” Chris Wright said on CNN on Sunday.
US faced with few good options to tamp down surging oil prices: FT reports experts say reopening Strait of Hormuz remains most viable option as ideas such as influencing futures market fade.
China tries to unblock its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz: Le Monde reports Chinese energy supplies are being held hostage to war despite Beijing's ties with Tehran. Ships are attempting to exit the Persian Gulf while displaying their Chinese management identity.
CNBC: Japan, South Korea stocks tumble over 6% as oil tops $100 amid broader Asia market rout
Bloomberg: Oil market chaos to deepen as more Gulf giants cut output
+ Oil markets are set for chaos as the war in Iran causes major producers to curb output and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
+ The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have started reducing oil production, and others may follow as storage fills up and oil tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
+ The war has led to a surge in oil prices, with Brent climbing 30% last week and markers tied to the region already surpassing the $100-a-barrel threshold.
How an oil crisis becomes an everything crisis: The 1973 oil embargo showed how a shock to energy supplies can unravel economies, upend politics, and make fear a force as powerful as war itself. Bloomberg
Commit what you know of Iran to the flames: Skepticism is warranted on the war and market behavior. Call it the Hume Doctrine. John Authers
AP: Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father as supreme leader
CNN: Iranian supreme leader’s son takes country’s top job, cementing hardliners’ grip on power
WSJ: Iran signals a fight to the end with appointment of Khamenei’s son
Khamenei’s son chosen as Iran’s supreme leader, extending hardline rule: WP reports Mojtaba Khamenei is deeply intertwined with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His selection sends a strong message of defiance to President Donald Trump.
Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran’s new supreme leader in challenge to Trump: The Times reports hardline clerics choose Mojtaba Khamenei to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader while Israeli attack raises fears of acid rain.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment is a sign Iran’s hardline policies will continue: FT reports selection of slain ayatollah’s son is seen as an act of defiance against war launched by US and Israel.
Iran names Khamenei's son as new supreme leader: Le Monde reports US President Donald Trump has dismissed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as a 'lightweight' and insisted again on Sunday that he should have a say in the new leader's appointment. 'If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long,' Trump told ABC News ahead of the announcement.
Iranian society is divided over Israeli and US strikes: Le Monde reports torn between the hope for the Islamic Republic's fall and fear of lasting destruction, Iranians have reacted in strikingly different ways to the war that began on February 28. First-hand accounts reveal a society fractured by bombings, repression, and uncertainty.
Vital desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain are attacked: NYT reports strikes on nonmilitary infrastructure were a “serious escalation,” analysts said, and could widen the war’s impact on civilians.
Dubai’s bankers stay home as war reshapes Ramadan: Bloomberg reports that the conflict in the Middle East is forcing Dubai’s expats to adjust to the reality of upheaval and learn an unfamiliar script.
What Mohammed bin Salman fears most from the war with Iran: Middle East scholar Bernard Haykel explains Tehran’s calculus, the risk of regime collapse, and how Saudi Arabia’s crown prince views the conflict. Bloomberg
In the Middle East and elsewhere, the tedious demands of diplomacy are essential for achieving peace: Though Donald Trump had just chaired the Board of Peace's first session in Washington, he refused to allow time for negotiations with Iran to bear fruit, triggering a conflict with an outcome that remains uncertain. Jean-Pierre Filiu
How AI is turbocharging the war in Iran: Intelligence, targeting, and damage assessments are accelerating thanks to military versions of software now remaking business and daily life. WSJ
US and Israeli military campaign tests limits of air power: Warplanes, missiles, and bombs haven’t been enough on their own to remove one government and replace it with another. The US military has upended governments in the past, but all of those operations have required troops or at least an indigenous force. WSJ
The hunt for Iran’s ballistic missile crews: Tehran’s missiles are key to its retaliation against Israel and the US. But launching them brings an immediate risk of death. FT
US considers idea of special operation to seize Iran’s uranium: Bloomberg reports the strikes on atomic facilities last June complicated the task of tracking the Islamic Republic’s stockpile.
US embassy in Oslo hit by explosion, police say possible terror motive: Le Monde reports police in the Norwegian capital said the explosion on Sunday morning may have been an act of terror, but stressed that they were also investigating other motives. Investigators have not ruled out a possible link to the war in the Middle East.
Bloomberg: Norway probes US embassy blast link to war in Middle East
Bloomberg: Investigators probe terrorism link to IED near Mamdani’s home
+ Authorities are investigating potential terrorism links to two suspects in custody over an improvised explosive thrown near Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s residence.
+ The suspects told detectives they believed the leader of an anti-Muslim protest near Mamdani’s residence had insulted their religion and described the devices as retaliation.
+ Investigators found the men had watched Islamic State propaganda videos before the protests and are examining whether the pair were self-radicalized online or received outside training.
Keir Starmer talks to Donald Trump in bid to heal growing rift: The Times reports the first conversation in eight days between the prime minister and president followed brutal criticism from the White House and political rivals.
Macron to visit Cyprus after island struck by Iranian-made drones: Le Monde reports the French president will meet with his counterparts from Cyprus and Greece after Iranian-made drones targeted Cyprus, prompting him to deploy France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean.
In the face of Trump's militaristic drift and looming disaster, Europe must equip itself to have global influence: Following the intervention in Venezuela, the war against Iran launched by the US president signals yet another admission of weakness by the United States, observes the economist in his column. This military agitation primarily serves to bolster the US economy. Thomas Piketty
Russian rhetoric on Iran rings hollow as no weapons appear: The Kremlin’s calls for the conflict to end have yet to be matched with military aid to its ally. The Times
US military is focused on Iran. Its biggest challenge is China. WSJ reports President Trump’s war is the latest campaign that has drained missile stockpiles and stretched American forces thin.
For Xi, Trump’s embrace of war proves China needs more power: China is learning lessons from the war in Iran. Chief among them, the United States may pose an even greater threat than Beijing thought. NYT
China signals it wants a Trump visit despite Iran war: FT reports Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says Beijing ‘positive and open’ on this month’s summit between the US and Chinese presidents.
CNBC: China says ‘thorough preparations’ needed as Trump-Xi meeting hangs in the balance amid Iran war
Will China overplay its hand? How Beijing’s confidence could shake up the Trump-Xi summit. Thomas J. Christensen
China’s AI nightmare is an out-of-control welfare state: As artificial intelligence threatens jobs and deflation strains growth, Xi Jinping may finally be forced to expand the nation’s social safety net. Bloomberg
Nepal's former rapper 'Balen' on track for landslide win in parliamentary elections: Le Monde reports six months after the Gen Z revolution and four years after entering politics, Balendra Shah, the mayor of Kathmandu, defeated former prime minister Sharma Oli in the parliamentary elections.
Rapper-turned-politician is set to be Nepal’s new prime minister: WSJ reports the success of Balendra Shah, known as Balen, reflects the hope he can address economic grievances behind recent Gen-Z protests.
Rapper-turned-politician sweeps to victory in Nepal: FT reports Balendra Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party has won 122 of 165 directly elected seats.
Latin America’s lithium triangle is now in the hands of the right: A reversal of political fortune in the region has major implications for critical minerals. Thea Riofrancos
+ The writer is associate professor of political science at Providence College and author of ‘Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism’
Flávio Bolsonaro narrows gap against Lula, DataFolha poll shows: Bloomberg reports Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowing his gap with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s looming election, with a new poll showing both effectively tied in a potential runoff vote.
Trump leaves Venezuela’s Machado behind as she lobbies for relevance: WSJ reports US embrace of Delcy Rodríguez leaves the country’s opposition leader scrambling for leverage in Washington and her homeland.
USA Today: Trump eyes surprise economic deal with Cuba
Trump threat to blow up trade deal puts Canada’s auto town on the spot: The Canadian auto industry has been rocked by President Donald Trump’s abandonment of subsidies for electric vehicles and embrace of tariffs. WP
Arctic warfare: Fighting in the extreme north is frigid, complex, and exhausting. It also may be a key capability for the US and other militaries looking to protect — or control — a key region. Bloomberg
Geopolitical hit to travel is ‘temporary’, says CEO of world’s largest visa processor: VFS boss Zubin Karkaria is confident global migration will remain resilient despite new tensions. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Inside War-a-Lago, Trump’s Palm Beach members club turned gilded situation room: At Trump’s South Florida palace, the commander in chief launches wars in between waltzes. Members, socialites, and White House officials take Vanity Fair inside the makeshift Situation Room at Mar-a-Lago. VF
CNBC: Trump vows legislative blockade until SAVE America voter-ID bill is passed
+ Trump vowed to withhold his signature from any bills that reach his desk until Congress passes a controversial voter-ID measure known as the Save America Act.
+ Prominent conservatives are pushing the bill, which would make it significantly more difficult for Americans to vote by requiring proof of citizenship and a photo ID.
+ Democrats plan to kill the bill if it is considered on the Senate floor, where it would need at least 60 votes.
Trump wants to ‘take over’ elections. These states are prime targets. President Trump thinks Republicans should control voting procedures in parts of the United States. But where? Here are some possibilities. WSJ
CNBC: Iran war could make affordability bigger issue in 2026 elections
+ Democrats hoping to flip the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections are dialing up their messaging on cost-of-living issues after the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran.
+ US crude oil has jumped past $100 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the Iran war broke out.
+ Republicans are projecting confidence, predicting a short conflict and arguing they can continue to work on affordability while the country is at war.
+ The war is unpopular with the American public, at a time that 61% of voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s management of the economy.
Iran is one more humiliation for JD Vance: Trump’s war shows that, within the administration, the vice president’s opinions matter less and less. Idrees Kahloon
‘Pretty bad for Vance’: The VP’s silence on Iran peeves allies: JD Vance used to praise Donald Trump for not starting wars. Politico
A Republican’s stand against the Iran war stirs up a heated Kentucky primary: Representative Thomas Massie’s race against a rival backed by President Trump is shaping up as a key midterm testing ground for GOP attitudes on the war. NYT
Texas primaries raise GOP alarm about Latino voters: WP reports strong Democratic turnout last week in heavily Latino parts of Texas has some Republicans fearing they will struggle to maintain the coalition Trump built in 2024.
How Talarico won Texas Democrats with love, luck, and a little restraint: NYT reports a carefully disciplined campaign that capitalized on viral media, months of organizing, and strong outreach to Latino voters helped propel James Talarico to the center of Texas politics.
‘You’re accumulating opposition and enemies’: Texas Republican Dan Crenshaw had real social media savvy. But it wasn’t enough to survive in the Trump era. Politico
New Jersey Republicans can’t quit Chris Christie: Politico reports he left office with historically low approval, but now he’s hitting the fundraising circuit and offering his theory for a party comeback.
Tim Walz talks about the ‘generational trauma’ his state has faced: Amid President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, Americans saw Minnesotans at their best, looking out for each other, the governor tells The Post.
How the US gave up on liberalism: The country is arguably the philosophy’s greatest victory. But “post-liberals” on both left and right are turning away from that inheritance. Bloomberg
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI needs management consultants after all: WSJ reports OpenAI, Anthropic strike deals with consulting firms to spread artificial intelligence through the business world.
Samsung seeks AI deals to challenge Apple’s smartphone lead: FT reports Korean giant’s device chief says its future Galaxy devices will host multiple models as users mix and match AI tools.
Roblox is minting teen millionaires: Bloomberg reports Roblox creators are raking in hundreds of thousands a month from simple games like ‘Fisch,’ even as major studios cut jobs and cancel blockbusters.
CNBC: Online age-verification tools spread across US for child safety, but adults are being surveilled
+ New US laws designed for online child safety are pulling millions of adult Americans into mandatory age-verification gates that often use AI technology, and causing major headaches for social media companies attempting to strike a balance for users between legal compliance and privacy.
+ Roughly half of US states have enacted or are advancing laws requiring platforms — including adult content sites, online gaming services, and social media apps — to block underage users.
+ Large volumes of sensitive identity data can become targets for government demands and hackers. But at a more fundamental level, the surveillance strikes at the foundation of the free and open internet, say civil liberties advocates, and last week, a court decision in Virginia cited the First Amendment in agreement.
OpenAI hardware leader resigns after deal with the Pentagon: Reuters reports Caitlin Kalinowski, who oversaw hardware at OpenAI, announced her resignation on Saturday, citing concerns about the company’s agreement with the Department of Defense.
Bloomberg: Apple ultra products expansion is up next after MacBook Neo launch
24 hours with Nike’s CEO as he races to win back the sports world: Elliott Hill is traveling the globe to meet with leagues, teams, and athletes to rebuild connections and spur a turnaround for the world’s largest athletic-wear company. NYT
Lloyd Blankfein’s unapologetic case for Goldman Sachs: The former CEO’s memoir Streetwise is a love letter to the firm that forged him and a defense of the culture that made it dominant. Bloomberg
How Swig turned dirty soda into a national obsession: The Utah soda-fountain chain is rapidly expanding in the US thanks to TikTok and a hit TV show. Bloomberg
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
Twelve seats. One conversation. No PowerPoints.
Brigadoon is coming to Washington, DC for an intimate salon dinner bringing together a carefully curated group of thinkers, builders, and leaders for an evening of genuine dialogue around topics shaping business and culture.
This isn't a networking event. It's something better.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Pod: Marc Ross on the art of the Negroni: What struck me most about my conversation with Christian Hunt is how he got it: this project works because it's about observation and openness.
#50Negronis isn't about ranking or declaring winners. It's about documenting how bartenders across the world approach a single recipe—and what that reveals about place, tradition, and craft. I am not trying to rank, curate, or declare winners. I am just paying attention.
The parallels to strategy work are real. Both require you to notice what others miss, ask better questions, and let evidence guide the narrative.
Also, if you've had a Negroni anywhere—a Michelin kitchen, a bodega, a beach shack—I want to hear about it. Send it my way. The strangest ones are often the most interesting.
Listen to the pod here.
A French grandmother took an American road trip — and was struck by what she saw WP
*** Sport ***
The F1 season is already looking like one long race to catch Mercedes: By taking the top two spots on the podium on Sunday, the German team made it clear that it had already mastered the sport’s sweeping new regulations. WSJ
Formula 1 reshuffles the deck after major regulatory overhaul: Le Monde reports that, with completely redesigned single-seaters following a sweeping change in regulations, Formula 1 drivers are kicking off the 2026 season on Sunday at the Australian Grand Prix. Despite ongoing uncertainty, McLaren aims to defend its titles against Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari.
Formula 1 rewrites the rules as it aims to put on a show: The sport enters a rare full-stack reset: power units, chassis, tyres, and sustainable fuels. This explainer sets out what’s changing, why it is happening now, and whether it will deliver. FT
A World Cup for a continent that’s coming apart: Mexico, Canada, and the United States hoped to showcase continental unity. Instead, competing agendas are turning one World Cup into three parallel tournaments. Politico
The World Cup is no stranger to strife – but this summer’s finals already feel damaged: A hundred days from their first game, Iran’s prospects of playing in the US are fast fading as turbulent times once more affect the tournament. Jonathan Wilson
The World Cup is supposed to inspire hope and unity. This one feels different Oliver Kay
Australia under pressure to protect Iran women’s soccer team: Bloomberg reports the Australian Iranian Council is calling on the government to ensure their protection and allow them to remain in Australia. The body launched an online petition, which garnered more than 61,000 signatures as of mid-morning Monday, urging Australian authorities to “ensure that no member of Iran’s women’s national football team is to depart Australia while credible fears for their safety remain.”
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 6
Caracal Global Daily
March 6, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Trump orders large-scale military campaign against Iran: The most significant kinetic military action of his second term, with implications for energy markets, supply chain resilience, and alliance relationships across Europe and the Middle East.
2. Strait of Hormuz blockage threatens 50 million people and global supply chains: Maritime traffic has ground to a halt following US-Israeli strikes, disrupting access to critical energy and food imports across the Gulf region, with cascading effects on Asian port congestion.
3. Shipping rates soar 650%; oil prices above $80 as supertanker costs hit record highs: A single supertanker charter from the US Gulf to China now costs $29 million (2 million barrels), doubling in just two weeks, reflecting existential uncertainty in maritime commerce.
4. Europe emerges as a strategic leverage point in the US-Iran War: The UK and Spain are limiting military facilitation despite Trump's demands, while France, Italy, and Greece are coordinating Mediterranean military asset deployment, proving European leverage remains essential.
5. Market sell-off reflects real supply chain risk: Oil at $80+, airline stocks down 10-20% (Frontier -20.9%, JetBlue -19.5%), LNG shipping rates up 650%, and data center damage from drone strikes signal markets are pricing in structural supply chain disruption.
*** Ross Rant ***
The Iran war changes everything you planned for 2026
What happened?
Trump ordered military strikes on Iran. Israeli forces launched a coordinated campaign. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for energy transit, is now blockaded. A supertanker that cost $40,000 per day to charter a week ago now costs $300,000 per day. Oil is above $80 per barrel.
Here's what matters: The speed of the conflict signals something deeper about Trump's strategic calculus. He's not managing the conflict; he's signaling capability. He's telling the world (and Beijing, specifically) that the US can project massive force simultaneously on multiple fronts: Iran, the Middle East, maritime commerce, and via proxy into Ukraine. Europe watches all this unfold, sees Trump's frustration with their "lack of support," and quietly decides to keep US military bases operational anyway because America is the only power capable of deterring Russian expansion.
That calculation is now in flux.
Trump told Politico he wants to help pick Iran's next leader. He's using the conflict to create space for regime change in Cuba. He's frustrated with Ukraine, skeptical of European commitment, and convinced that American military dominance can reshape the Middle East. Whether that's true or not, markets believe it's possible, and the uncertainty alone is reshaping capital flows.
Your company is likely in one of three positions right now:
1. Dependent on energy costs, ship-based supply chains, or Middle East operations
2. Holding significant cash exposed to currency volatility as the dollar strengthens and emerging market currencies weaken
3. Positioned to benefit from nearshoring and defense spending acceleration
The geopolitical environment has shifted from managed competition to kinetic conflict. Your risk models are obsolete. Your capital deployment strategy is now vulnerable to cascade disruption.
What you need now isn't more news. You need intelligence. You need a clear-eyed assessment of what this conflict signals about the geopolitical landscape your business operates in. You need a strategy that accounts for multiple plausible futures. You need someone in the room who can translate geopolitical chaos into business clarity.
But nobody in the room is asking the connecting question: What does this conflict signal about the next wave of disruption across your sector?
You need someone in the room who can translate geopolitical chaos into business clarity. You need a Chief Geopolitical Officer.
Most companies don't have one. Most of you aren't ready to hire one full-time, and frankly, that's the wrong move in this environment. You need one right now, for the next 6-12 months, when volatility is highest, and decisions are most consequential.
You don't need an expensive full-time hire. You need a fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer.
That's what we do at Caracal Global.
Caracal Global specializes in global affairs and American politics, delivering intelligence, strategy, and communications to senior executives navigating geopolitical risk. Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolios rely on Caracal Global to monitor geopolitical signals, translate them into business strategy, and prepare boards and senior leadership to decide rather than scramble.
Make the call.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Binyamin Netanyahu has his war: If it goes wrong, he will also get the blame. Economist
Trump’s war Time
How the decision to start a war became the president’s: Presidents have sidestepped Congress to launch limited military strikes for decades. Trump’s decision to attack Iran is an aggressive escalation. NYT
Donald Trump must stop soon: His ill-considered conflict risks descending into chaos. Economist
There’s reason to worry about the Iran war: The action was bold, but we can’t know what the repercussions will be, and a lot could go wrong. Peggy Noonan
Trump says he’ll help pick Iran’s leader, predicts regime change in Cuba: The president told Politico that “Cuba’s going to fall,” revealed his growing frustration with Ukraine, and discussed the uncertain search for a new leader of Iran. Politico
Trump: I must help to choose Iran’s next leader: The Times reports US president calls the ayatollah’s son — the frontrunner as successor — a ‘lightweight’, while Sir Keir Starmer has deployed four more jets.
Bloomberg: Trump finds he needs Europe now that He’s waging war in Iran
+ Europe's leaders are holding their ground against President Donald Trump's demands as he launches a military campaign in Iran, with the UK and Spain limiting their facilitation of US military operations.
+ Trump's frustration reflects the reality that Europe retains leverage, with the US relying on European bases, airspace, and strategic geography to project power into the Middle East.
+ European nations are wary of a rupture with the US, but Trump's past scorn for allies is becoming a hurdle, with many officials saying that the erosion of trust is making it harder for Europe to support the US.
How Israel and the US are waging their most intense air war in decades on Iran: The coordinated US-Israeli forces have devised 'unprecedented' operations to establish their military dominance over Iran, destroy its missile launchers and factories, and gain control of their adversary's airspace. Le Monde
WSJ: Hegseth says attacks on Iran about to ‘surge dramatically’
US destroys 30 warships as fight ‘only just begun’: The Times reports Peter Hegseth, the Secretary of War, says US forces have no shortage of munitions or will in continuing the fight against Iran.
+ Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry accused Iran of carrying out a drone attack on its exclave of Nakhchivan
Europe-to-Asia air travel squeezed into a narrow corridor after drone attack: FT reports drone attack on Azerbaijan puts further pressure on Western airlines.
AP: Iranian warship sunk by the US was sailing home after taking part in an exhibition hosted by India
NYT: Israel bombards Beirut, as Middle East strikes widen
Israeli military launches ground offensive in southern Lebanon: Le Monde reports the operation may aim to establish a control zone extending as far as the Litani River, which runs four to 30 kilometers from the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel, or nearly 8% of Lebanese territory.
Thousands flee Beirut after sweeping Israeli evacuation order: FT reports Israel orders area of hundreds of thousands of people cleared as war rages with militant group Hizbollah.
Macron says 'everything' must be done to prevent new war in Lebanon: Le Monde reports the French president said that Lebanese authorities had given him 'their commitment' to take control of Hezbollah positions, as France dispatches humanitarian aid.
France, Italy, and Greece to coordinate 'dispatch of military assets' to Mediterranean: Le Monde reports the decision was made during a call between French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
WSJ: UAE explores freezing Iranian assets to punish Tehran for attacks
Gulf states could review overseas investments to ease financial strains caused by Iran war: FT reports three leading Middle East economies consider options as US-Israeli campaign against Tehran continues.
Trump calls on Kurds to aid US effort in Iran, offers support: WP reports in outreach to Kurdish minority leaders in Iran and neighboring Iraq, the president offered US support to insurgent efforts against Tehran.
Kurdish factions could weaken Iran's regime from within: Le Monde reports that as US-Israeli strikes continue, attention is turning to Iran's Kurdish units, now united in an unprecedented coalition. But the Kurds' history, marked by fragile alliances and betrayals, fuels both hope and caution.
Israel and America want the Kurds to join the fight in Iran: Kurdish militias are weighing a risky bid to redraw their neighbour’s borders. Economist
Dubai is the front line of Britain’s war with itself: They’re not laughing now, are they? Economist
WSJ: Stock market: Dow drops 1.6%, oil pushes above $80
+ A gallon of gasoline is already up $0.25 this week in the US
+ Gasoline soars to its highest price since May 2024
+ US average diesel prices have reached $4.12/gal this morning according to GasBuddy data, the highest level since December 8, 2023
+ LNG shipping rates soar 650% from $40,000 to $300,000 per day
+ The Canadian dollar has become a top pick in the $9.5-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market due to its link to oil prices as the war in the Middle East grinds on
The cost of shipping crude oil from the US to Asia is skyrocketing: It now costs over $29 million to hire a supertanker to take 2 million barrels of crude from the US Gulf Coast to China, the highest on record. Shipping rates have doubled in just two weeks.
+ Trump lets India buy Russian oil to soften Iran impact
Industry doubts Trump plan to insure Gulf oil tankers as Iran war halts transit: FT reports US lacks firepower to provide $350bn in coverage needed to revive Strait of Hormuz transits, JPMorgan says.
Airline stocks, the last five days:
Frontier -20.9%
JetBlue -19.5%
Alaska -17.4%
United -15.9%
American -13.1%
Southwest -11.7%
Delta -10.5%
How data centers became a casualty of war: Three facilities have suffered damage in drone strikes, and analysts say such installations are increasingly at risk. Bloomberg
Strait of Hormuz blockage: The war in the Middle East has blocked access to major ports in the Gulf region, as traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz almost ceased, a ship-spotting platform said. This has affected agricultural supply to over 50 million people in the Gulf region, which imports over 90% of its food, it said.
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, regional trade disruptions could ripple across the globe: Le Monde reports that following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf has ground to a halt. These disruptions risk causing congestion in Asian ports.
Hormuz is the hidden risk to the AI economy David Fickling
New wave of Iranian migrants swap war at home for Calais Jungle: The Times reports US strikes and regime crackdowns have driven more to flee, joining migrants of other nationalities who will claim to be from Iran when they cross the Channel.
Finland goes nuclear: Finland’s Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen announced today that the country has lifted its ban on the import and transport of nuclear weapons, potentially paving the way for the deployment of nuclear-capable aircraft and warheads by members of NATO, including France and/or the United States, onto the territory of Finland.
Russia is big winner as Iran war drains supplies that Ukraine needs: WSJ reports Kyiv faces a shortfall of missile interceptors for its air defense, while surging oil prices are boosting Russia’s economy.
Volodymyr Zelensky said a new round of trilateral talks with America and Russia had been postponed because of the war in the Middle East.
AP: France dumps Zoom and Teams as Europe seeks digital autonomy from the US
How the Danes and Swedes handle populism: Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen calls an election to take on the hard right again. Economist
China’s first railway project in the EU is open at last: Once a show of largesse, it now reflects China’s struggles on the continent. Economist
Bloomberg: China’s annual economic plan highlights tech push, market stability
+ China's government work report suggests the nation's leaders are less ambitious in their growth goal for 2026, but more confident in meeting the new target of 4.5% to 5% growth.
+ The report features more detailed moves to restrict "rat-race competition" and signals a firmer determination to put China's years of deflation behind it, with a goal to boost consumer prices by around 2%.
+ The government plans to launch initiatives to drive high-quality development in key manufacturing chains, support the development of a vibrant open-source artificial intelligence ecosystem, and regulate awards of tax breaks and fiscal subsidies.
US has a big ask for China: Buy less oil from Russia, more from America: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent weighs pushing the tricky trade-off along with other economic goals prior to the Trump-Xi summit. WSJ
The geopolitics of the global oceans treaty: It has been hailed as a diplomatic triumph, but some worry it could become a vehicle to increase China’s influence over the high seas. FT
US won’t allow India to become rival like China, official says: The US won’t give India the same kind of economic advantages it gave China, which allowed that country to emerge as a major competitor, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on Thursday, signaling Washington’s cautiousness in negotiations over a trade deal. While the US wants to work with India to unlock its “limitless potential,” India should understand that “we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago,” Landau said at the Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: US and Venezuela will resume diplomatic ties with Maduro out
Not just oil: In Venezuela, US Interior Secretary pushes for mining access: NYT reports Venezuela is home to large reserves of rare earths, gold, and other valuable minerals that the Trump administration wants to exert more control over.
US considers tying Nvidia and AMD AI chip exports to foreign investment pledges: FT reports draft rule would require countries to invest in America in exchange for advanced semiconductors.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Axios: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem out, Trump says
BBC: Trump replaces Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem
AP: Trump fires Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary
Trump fires Kristi Noem, finally: This is a chance to reboot deportations in more targeted fashion. WSJ-Editorial
Markwayne Mullin faces a straightforward path to confirmation as DHS secretary: Politico reports the Senate tends to be kind to its own members, and at least one Democrat is on board.
+ Trump said he would nominate Oklahoma Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin to lead DHS
+ Ross Rant: Governor Kevin Stitt should appoint Lieutenant Governor Matt Pinnell as Oklahoma’s next US Senator
Noem handpicked contractors to lead a $100 million ICE recruitment campaign, sources say: The DHS secretary decided the contracts instead of allowing a competitive bidding process, according to three administration officials and internal communications reviewed by NBC News.
Senate Democrat pushes to investigate Noem for perjury: NYT reports that Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said Democrats had evidence suggesting Kristi Noem lied under oath during a Senate hearing on Tuesday.
Board delays vote on Trump’s ballroom amid deluge of public criticism: NYT reports the National Capital Planning Commission, led by Trump allies, moved the vote to next month and listened to hours of public testimony, much of it negative, about the plan.
Thousands of public comments slam Trump’s ballroom: ‘I did not vote for this’: A WP analysis of submitted comments found more than 97 percent were critical of the planned 90,000-square-foot addition. The White House has defended it as necessary.
Trump’s lopsided vision for the White House: The president’s East Wing plan upends the symmetry that was once fundamental to the People’s House, our analysis shows. See the design in 3-D. NYT
Trump allies expand role in planning America’s 250th anniversary: WP reports the emergence of the Trump-backed Freedom 250 sparks tensions with a bipartisan commission and draws questions from Democrats.
Pentagon notifies Anthropic it’s deemed firm supply-chain risk: Bloomberg reports the Pentagon said it has formally notified Anthropic PBC that it’s determined the company and its products pose a risk to the US supply chain, according to a senior defense official, escalating a dispute over artificial intelligence safeguards.
Pentagon formally labels Anthropic supply-chain risk, escalating conflict: WSJ reports that the move could have far-reaching consequences for other companies that work with the government; Anthropic has signaled a court challenge.
Pentagon labels Anthropic a supply-chain risk in the first-ever designation of a US company: Le Monde reports that the developer, which develops and operates the popular model Claude, angered defense leaders by insisting that its technology not be used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons systems.
Bloomberg: Anthropic says it has no choice but to fight Pentagon in court
US states sue Trump administration over new tariffs: FT reports that Democratic attorneys-general say the president exceeded authority after the Supreme Court struck down the original levies.
House Election 2026: Ryan Zinke's (R-MT-01) retirement and Texas US Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R-TX-02) defeat in Tuesday’s primary means there are now 58 open US House seats headed toward the next election, with 34 coming from Republican districts and 19 from the Democratic column, while redistricting in California, Texas, and Utah has created five new seats.
House GOP leaders ask Tony Gonzales to drop reelection bid: Politico reports the call comes a day after Gonzales admitted having an affair with a staffer and the opening of a House Ethics probe.
MT-SEN: Sen. Steve Daines abruptly withdrew from Montana's 2026 Senate race minutes before the filing deadline—sources say—to block Democrats from recruiting former Sen. Jon Tester (or other strong names like ex-Govs. Schweitzer/Bullock).
A sly political switcheroo stuns Montana and starts a new Senate fight: NYT reports minutes before the Senate filing deadline, Senator Steve Daines withdrew his re-election bid, and an ally jumped in. Even some fellow Republicans criticized the 11th-hour switch.
A political earthquake rattles the North Carolina legislature: Voters across this politically purple state made it clear on Tuesday that they wanted to punish the powerful on both sides of the aisle. It may be a warning to incumbents elsewhere. NYT
Florida Dems look to catch Texas’ midterm energy: Politico reports Tuesday’s primary for Senate showed that, for now, everything’s bigger in Texas when it comes to attention for Democrats.
Who’s running for governor of California? NYT
Blue-state governors bash Trump — and audition for 2028: During the annual State of State addresses, state leaders pitch proposals to help bring down costs of living and hammer the president. Politico
Rahm Emanuel floods Democrats with criticism and ideas. Will his party listen? Possible 2028 presidential candidate is rolling out advice for how to win again and policy proposals as pivotal midterm elections loom. WSJ
NY AI: New York bill would ban AI from answering questions related to medicine, law, dentistry, nursing, psychology, social work, and engineering.
Michigan sues Kalshi, alleges app is skirting state's gambling laws
+ @DylanByers: The CBS News town hall with @JDVance, which had been slated to air on March 14, has been postponed indefinitely.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
BYD reported weaker domestic sales amid slowing demand in China. Purchases fell by more than a third in January and February, compared with the previous year.
Jim Farley of Ford on making a U-turn on EVs and flooring it with off-roaders: Five years into driving Ford, CEO Jim Farley talks to C/D about the tough road ahead of him and how he's navigating competition from China. Car + Driver
Now even Apple is worried about affordability: Consumers don’t mind using hardware that’s a little behind the curve if it’s cheaper. Enter the MacBook Neo. Jessica Karl
Netflix acquired InterPositive, an AI filmmaking technology business founded four years ago by actor Ben Affleck.
AI firms could be given exception from copyright laws: The Times reports companies may be allowed to use works for software development, then sign deals with rights holders later, under plans before UK ministers.
The AI PR problem: Sector companies have been slow to address concerns about the technology from ordinary people. Richard Waters
NYSE owner invests in crypto exchange OKX at a $25bn valuation: Deal is the latest sign of growing ties between Wall Street and the digital assets industry. FT
SpaceX: The final frontier of IPOs: Can Elon Musk’s moonshot deliver the mooted $1.75tn valuation? FT
Bayer spies an end to a long legal battle: After a settlement over Roundup, what about break-up? Economist
Calvin Klein is missing its Carolyn Bessette Kennedy moment: Shoppers looking for sleek CBK-inspired styles after watching the new limited series Love Story say they’re finding sweatshirts instead. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 5
Caracal Global Daily
March 5, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Iran war is operationally successful but strategically chaotic: A US submarine sank an Iranian warship. Allied air defenses are holding. But Trump's process is unstructured and unpredictable. His national security advisers are struggling to keep up.
2. China announces lowest growth target since 1991: Beijing set 4.5-5% annual growth and acknowledged "difficulties and challenges." This signals that the old economic model is exhausted. Competitive implications ripple across manufacturing and technology sectors.
3. Gulf allies exposed as militarily vulnerable: Insurance costs for shipping surged 12-fold. Air defenses failed to stop Iranian attacks. Gulf monarchies face the painful choice between appeasing Iran or aligning with the US-Israeli coalition.
4. Anthropic returns to Pentagon negotiations: Despite early resistance over AI safety, Dario Amodei is holding talks with Defense Department officials to resolve the dispute. Commercial AI is becoming weaponized whether companies resist or not.
5. Republican midterm vulnerability emerging: Data center energy backlash is creating political risk. The Senate blocked war powers restrictions. JD Vance's skepticism about the Iran war signals 2028 fractures in Trump's coalition.
*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's Iran victory problem
Six days into the expanded Iran war, the pattern is becoming clear. Operationally, the strikes are succeeding beyond expectations. A US submarine launched its first torpedo in combat since World War II, sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. Intelligence-driven targeting is destroying Iranian missile capabilities faster than Tehran can regenerate them. Ground forces are not yet committed. This is an air-dominated campaign working largely as designed.
However, the situation is unraveling strategically and politically.
Trump's decision-making process has become a liability. The New York Times reports that his national security advisers are struggling to keep pace with his impulses. Decisions come fast. Contradictions abound. There is little preparation for how things can go wrong. This is not the deliberation that precedes sustained military operations. This is reactive crisis management at the presidential level.
Consider what's happening simultaneously. The Pentagon is now using Anthropic's Claude AI to identify and prioritize military targets in real time. Yet the same Pentagon just declared Anthropic a supply-chain risk for objecting to unrestricted AI weaponization. This created a cascade: Anthropic lost credibility on defense, OpenAI gained it, and now Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is forced back into negotiations to avoid complete marginalization. The AI industry is being fractured between those willing to support military applications without reservation and those trying to maintain a principled stance. Commercial pressure is winning. This tells you something about how unstructured militarization works.
The Iran war has also exposed something Trump promised voters to prevent: an extended military commitment without a clear endgame. He campaigned against endless wars. Days into this one, there is no credible narrative about how it concludes. Does regime change happen? Does it not? Does the conflict expand to Russia and China? Nobody is saying. Trump is improvising.
Meanwhile, China just announced its lowest growth target since 1991. Beijing is signaling that the old growth model is broken. This is geopolitically significant because it suggests China's capacity for international economic competition and capital deployment is declining at the exact moment that America is ramping up its Middle East commitments. For corporate executives, this creates an unusual window: reduced Chinese competition in some sectors, but also reduced Chinese appetite for M&A and capital partnerships.
The Iran war is creating three immediate problems for Trump:
First, the conflict serves to validate Democratic warnings about Republican fiscal recklessness. Data center energy subsidies, military operations in the Middle East, and rising utility costs are colliding at a moment when voters are angry about the cost of living. Trump promised to cut electricity prices in half. Instead, they rose 6% in 2025. Now he is pledging corporate commitments to cover data center energy costs. This is paying protection money to avoid political backlash. It signals weakness.
Second, Gulf allies are being forced to choose sides. Iran attacked them directly. They are now burning through American air-defense interceptors at a rate that exposes their vulnerability. This dependency creates leverage for both Washington and Tehran. Gulf states are weighing whether closer US alignment is worth the risk of Iranian retaliation. That calculation is not obvious, particularly if Trump's support wavers.
Third, JD Vance's silence on the Iran war is ominous. The leading 2028 successor candidate has long opposed foreign military entanglements. His public comment on Trump's Iran strategy is minimal. If Vance distances himself from the war during the 2026 midterms, it opens a fracture in Trump's coalition. A war that succeeds operationally but fails politically is unsustainable.
Your company is now operating in an environment where operational military success no longer guarantees strategic victory. That requires intelligence about what comes next.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Gulf insurance costs soar 12-fold despite Trump guarantee: FT reports shipowners quoted millions of dollars in premiums as brokers grapple with risk.
The Iran war has been a stunning operational success: Even if, at the political level, its direction is a mess. Economist
The start of the Iran war was determined by spying success: But even when assassinations come off, the long-term consequences are unclear. Economist
US-Israeli attack on Iran: What happens next? Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed, along with several key figures, in a series of attacks by the US and Israel since Feb 28. Who is in power now, and is a regime change possible? TST
Israel expects weeks-long war against Iran: FT reports officials and analysts say joint operation with US seeks to destroy key capabilities of Islamic regime.
Bloomberg: Trump says US doing ‘very well’ as Iran war shakes region
Trump follows his gut. His national security advisers try to keep up. Decisions come fast, even if contradictions and inconsistencies abound. But without much of a process, there is little preparation for how things can go wrong. NYT
The perils of Donald Trump’s pivot from peace to war president: If the war in Iran fails to pay off politically, will he cut his losses or double down? Economist
Why Trump is about to lose control in Iran Benjamin Hart
Trump’s shifting Iran strategies risk a chaotic global endgame: New satellite imagery and data reveal the breadth of destruction to military and civilian targets from the US-Israeli strikes. Bloomberg
The Iran war in five charts: Numbers help shed light on submarine attacks, drinking water supplies, Polymarket bets, and more. Jessica Karl
A war justified once again by a lie turns into a race against the clock for Donald Trump: The third American war waged in the Middle East by a president of the United States bears little resemblance to the previous ones. Gilles Paris
The cynical opportunities of ‘Epic Fury’: With this US administration, suggest the best bet is a business deal with Iran. Martin Wolf
Iran’s underground ‘missile cities’ have become one of its biggest vulnerabilities: WSJ reports US and Israeli aircraft are circling over the subterranean bases, destroying missile launchers as they emerge to fire.
The Washington Iran war pessimists: Rarely have so many seemed so eager to predict American defeat. WSJ-Editorial
Trump’s lone ranger approach to Iran: Going to war without congressional or public consent makes a risky decision even more so. William A. Galston
US submarine launches its first torpedo in combat since World War II: NYT reports that since 1991, Navy subs have launched scores of cruise missiles in combat, but the torpedo attack off Sri Lanka is a return to form after 80 years.
Toronto Star: Sri Lanka recovers 87 bodies from Iranian warship sunk off its coast by a US submarine
Iran and a new Middle East alliance: Tehran’s attacks on its Arab neighbors make Netanyahu’s dream suddenly feasible. Shimon Refaeli
WP: Violence forges a new Middle East
Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack launched a historic reordering: WP reports that with Israel’s other main foes mostly crushed, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is unfolding in ways that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran: Gulf monarchies face a dilemma after Iran's retaliation attacks target them: Le Monde reports the Arabian Peninsula's monarchs now face a painful dilemma: Whether to continue trying to appease Tehran, or more closely align themselves with the US and Israel, though this could expose them to further strikes from their neighbor.
You’ve failed us, Middle East allies tell UK: The Times reports Bahrain and the UAE join Cyprus in criticising Sir Keir Starmer over slow response to protect them from Iranian strikes.
Be glad of Starmer’s caution over Iran: Bellicose critics of the UK prime minister have learnt nothing from the recent past. Janan Ganesh
Iran's neighbors, under drone attacks, confront their vulnerability: Le Monde reports that, lacking experience in countering kamikaze drones, especially the infamous Shahed models, the Gulf countries have shown how unprepared they were for the threat posed by Iran, which is determined to exploit their vulnerability.
Gulf states in race to secure more US interceptors: FT reports Washington’s allies in region burn through defensive munitions as they fend off Iranian barrages.
The missiles hit the Gulf with no warning. Then the escape planning began. WSJ reports stranded expatriates and trapped travelers are lining up private jets and scrambling overland in hopes of escaping a widening conflict.
Russia powerless to help ally Iran under US-Israel strikes: Le Monde reports that, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, verbal support is all Vladimir Putin can offer the Iranian government after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death. However, Moscow could benefit from rising hydrocarbon prices.
Why is Russia not coming to Tehran's aid? The beleaguered Iranian regime, with very few international allies, has been counting on Moscow's support amid the ongoing US-Israeli strikes, but so far it has been left deeply disappointed. DW
Kenya braces as Middle East conflict escalates: DW reports as tensions rise across the Middle East, Kenyans fear economic shocks, disrupted exports, and risks to the more than 400,000 Kenyans working in Gulf states.
In times of chaos, Europe is the muddled power the world needs: In praise of the dreaded European working group. Economist
Bloomberg: IMF says Mideast war to test world economy, expecting new shocks
Germany: Fuel prices spike amid Iran conflict: DW reports prices at the pumps for petroleum and diesel have risen by around one-fifth in a matter of days in Germany. Oil production and shipments have been severely disrupted by the fighting in Iran and the wider Middle East.
WP: Spanish prime minister rebukes war, escalating feud with Trump
Analysis: Why Xi can't say no to Trump visit despite the Iran strikes: Economic and political woes at home limit China's criticism of the US. Nikkei
China prioritises energy and diplomacy over Iran support: AFP reports China has expressed its anger over Israeli-US strikes on Iran, but, despite hits to its oil imports, will not risk its interests by confronting Washington and helping its long-standing partner, analysts say.
Bloomberg: China tells top refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports
China top lawmakers meeting is smallest ever under Xi amid purge: Bloomberg reports attendance at China’s National People’s Congress in Beijing fell to its lowest level since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, highlighting the churn inside the country’s top legislature as a widening purge of officials rolls on.
Bloomberg: China sets lowest growth target since 1991 as old model falters
+ China set a growth target of 4.5% to 5%, its most modest in more than three decades, in a shift towards more sustainable growth drivers.
+ The lower target reduces pressure on officials to deploy aggressive stimulus and allows for more flexibility in achieving the 2026 goals, according to Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV.
+ The government's fiscal plan keeps debt quotas and budget deficit targets steady, and the offshore yuan rose 0.1% against the dollar after the announcement, while yields on China's 10-year government bonds were little changed.
China signals new era of slower economic growth: WSJ reports Beijing sets a historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5%.
TST: China trims GDP target to 4.5%-5%, first downgrade in 3 years amid weak domestic market
China cuts 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5%, lowest in decades: Nikkei reports Premier Li acknowledges 'difficulties and challenges' as Beijing strives for 2035 economic goal.
China warns of ‘challenges’ as it sets lowest GDP growth target in decades: Figure given at annual meeting of parliament as Beijing prepares to release new five-year plan. FT
China sets economy’s growth target below 5% for first time in decades: The goal, announced at a gathering of Communist Party leaders, was the lowest since 1991 and can offer clues about China’s policymaking plans. NYT
China needs a more ambitious growth target: Otherwise a fourth year of deflation awaits. Economist
TST: China to spend 7% more on defence amid a widening graft purge in the military
China's defense budget swells another 7% as military purges draw scrutiny: Nikkei reports Beijing spends far more than Tokyo, which it claims is reviving 'militarism.'
China's $24bn global port push reveals supply chain security goals: Nikkei reports that state-backed lending spans 168 ports in 90 countries, according to the report.
Heavy shelling, explosions spark fear along Pakistan-Afghanistan border: TST reports the South Asian allies-turned-foes are involved in their worst clash in years following Pakistani airstrikes on major Afghan cities last week, adding volatility to a region already on edge over the US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Why India wants AI to be sovereign Nikkei
Ecuador deepens US military alliance to fight drugs: WSJ reports joint operations against major cocaine traffickers signal expanded role for Washington in President Noboa’s crackdown on surging violence.
Why Ecuador invited the US military to help with its drug gangs: Drug gangs have turned the South American country into one of the most dangerous in the region and the world’s leading exporter of cocaine. NYT
Two-thirds of Cuba, including Havana, was hit by a blackout: Le Monde reports that daily power outages of up to 20 hours are the norm in parts of the impoverished island, which lacks the fuel needed to generate power. The crisis has become more acute since the US ouster of Cuba's top ally, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, on January 3.
Mark Carney refuses to ‘categorically’ rule out military involvement in Middle East conflict: Toronto Star reports speaking in the Australian capital, Carney appeared to harden Canada’s stance on the war, saying it’s too soon to call for an immediate ceasefire.
G+M: Carney won’t ‘rule out’ Canadian military involvement in Middle East
Toronto Star: Mark Carney calls Canada and Australia ‘strategic cousins’ who must work together to survive
Canadian PM Carney says 'middle powers' can still shape the world: Canada, Australia can forge new coalitions, visiting leader tells Canberra lawmakers. Nikkei
Bloomberg: Carney calls for Canada, Australia to lead middle-power blocs
+ Prime Minister Mark Carney told Australia's Parliament that Canada and Australia should lead coalitions to resist domination by great powers.
+ Carney argued that middle powers like Canada and Australia can establish conventions and write new rules to determine their security and prosperity.
+ He suggested that the two countries can collaborate in areas such as critical minerals, artificial intelligence, trade, and defense equipment to develop strategic advantages together.
Trump and Venezuela's Rodriguez exchange lavish praise amid oil partnership: Le Monde reports that Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, thanked US President Donald Trump on Telegram for his 'kind willingness to work together for the benefit of the people of the United States and Venezuela.' Trump praised her as 'doing a great job,' adding that he is pleased with the 'professionalism and dedication' between the two countries.
Scott Bessent says 15% global tariff ‘likely’ to be imposed this week: FT reports US Treasury secretary says duty is set to increase from 10% rate introduced after last month’s Supreme Court defeat.
Judge orders US Customs to process refunds on illegal Trump tariffs: Reuters reports a US trade court judge on Wednesday ordered the government to begin paying potentially billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid tariffs that the Supreme Court said last month were collected illegally. Judge Richard Eaton of the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan ordered the government to finalize the cost of bringing millions of shipments into the US without assessing a tariff, according to a court filing. He ordered the refunds to be made with interest.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Senate gives green light to Trump’s Iran attacks: WSJ reports measure to rein in president’s war powers is defeated largely along party lines.
What does JD Vance think about Trump’s Iran war? The frontrunner to succeed the US president has been opposed to foreign military entanglements. FT
Anthropic’s AI tool Claude central to US campaign in Iran, amid a bitter feud: WP reports advanced AI technology is identifying targets in Iran and quickly prioritizing them, supporting the massive military operations carried out by US and Israeli forces.
Anthropic chief back in talks with Pentagon about AI deal: FT reports Dario Amodei holding discussions with deputy to Pete Hegseth to reach a compromise on military use of the technology.
Bloomberg: Anthropic reopens talks with Pentagon after feud over AI safety
+ Anthropic PBC chief Dario Amodei has resumed discussions with the Pentagon about the use of its AI models by the US military.
+ The discussions aim to resolve a feud and potentially lead to a new agreement governing the Pentagon's access to Anthropic's technology.
+ A resolution would help clear the air around Anthropic, which has been impacted by the Pentagon dispute, and could also complicate rival efforts, such as OpenAI's agreement with the Pentagon.
No one wins in Anthropic’s fight against the Pentagon: AI companies cannot expect to dictate how the military uses the tools they sell. Michael C Horowitz
Trump unveils data center pledge amid voter backlash to high utility bills: Top AI executives vowed to cover the energy costs created by data centers at an event with the president. WP
Trump tells AI companies they need ‘PR help’ over data centre backlash: The president accepts that AI infrastructure building has angered voters as he urges companies to absorb energy costs. FT
CNBC: Trump has an AI data center problem ahead of the midterms — with no easy solutions
+ President Donald Trump is bringing big tech companies to the White House on Wednesday to sign a pledge to provide their own power for data centers.
+ Trump promised to cut electricity prices in half during his first year. Instead, prices increased by a national average of 6% in 2025, according to federal data.
+ His alliance with the AI industry poses political risks for the GOP as Democrats zero in on the cost of living as they campaign to retake Congress.
Data centers are a distraction. The real fight is elsewhere. David Wallace-Wells
RFK Jr.’s dunk on Dunkin’ riles up New Englanders: ‘Come and take it’: WP reports Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is drawing flak on social media for his comments about the coffee chain that is a way of life in Massachusetts, the state where he was raised.
Goldman’s top strategist warns that stocks are flashing the same warning signs as before the 2008 financial crisis: Fortune reports that Peter Oppenheimer—who correctly called US underperformance and the global rotation—now sees an elevated risk of a correction.
Daines drops re-election bid in Montana, upending a Senate race: The NYT reports that Senator Steve Daines's surprise announcement could give Democrats a slim opening in the Republican-leaning state in their uphill fight to take the Senate majority.
Trump ally Steve Daines leaves Senate race just ahead of deadline: WSJ reports Montana lawmaker and president endorse Kurt Alme for his seat.
With Texas in play for Democrats, Trump says he will endorse Senate candidate: WSJ reports Democrat James Talarico’s victory Tuesday has spooked Republican leaders who fear they could lose in November.
He’s no Beto, but can Talarico win? A Texas writer weighs in. Christopher Hooks + John Guida
What Texas will discover about James Talarico: Texas Republicans gave the Democrat an opening. His refusal to moderate on issues might close it. Ramesh Ponnuru
WP: Trump could blunt Democrats’ momentum in Texas with key endorsement
Tuesday results put incumbents on notice in 2026 primaries: WP reports for Democrats, age may become a liability this cycle; for Republicans, trouble may arise without a Trump endorsement.
The Democratic establishment gets the night it wanted: Good nights in Texas and North Carolina offer relief — but the progressive challenge is far from over. Henry Olsen
Newsom compares Israel to an ‘apartheid state,’ questions military support: NYT reports the California governor, seen as a likely presidential candidate, made comments that reflect a shift in the Democratic Party.
Gayle King signs new deal with CBS News: WSJ repots he ‘CBS Mornings’ co-host dispelled rumors of a possible departure, staying with the network amid broader overhaul.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid. WP reports that traders on the prediction-market site Kalshi assumed they had won a fortune by correctly betting on the Iranian leader’s demise. The ensuing scandal has thrown a spotlight on the “dystopian” rise of gambling on real-world events.
Fortune: OpenAI investor Vinod Khosla predicts today’s 5-year-olds won’t ever need to get jobs thanks to AI
Google to open German centre for 'AI development': AFP reports Google will open an AI centre in Berlin on Thursday, the latest sign of Europe's deepening reliance on US firms in cutting-edge technologies despite the continent's stated aim to catch up with its rivals.
Bloomberg: Meta plans to develop custom chips to train its AI models
Fortune: Palantir and other tech companies are stocking offices with tobacco products to increase worker productivity
Fortune: McDonald’s gargantuan ‘Big Arch’ burger contains two-thirds of your daily caloric intake—and that’s without fries or a drink
Fortune: Target is over being ‘an everything store,’ CEO says. It’s doubling down on baby items and groceries—and investing $1 billion in its supply chain
*** Culture ***
Sid Mashburn: The Mr. Rogers of Menswear Atlantic Saints
*** Sport ***
Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup is threatened by Middle East war, less than 100 days before kick-off: Le Monde reports that following the Israeli-American offensive, the Iranian Football Federation has suggested that its national team may not compete in the World Cup, which is set to begin on June 11. 'Team Melli' is scheduled to play its three group stage matches on the West Coast of the United States.
The NFL is charging into the era of the $300 million salary cap: WSJ reports teams have a record amount of cash to spend this offseason. The only problem is that they’re staring at an unusually shallow pool of free agents.
Lou Holtz, a Hall of Fame coach who won a title at Notre Dame, dies at 89: WP reports that he was known for his clever quips and controversial political comments; he led the Fighting Irish to a football national championship in 1989.
Lou Holtz, who coached unbeaten Notre Dame to a title, dies at 89: NYT reports known for reviving football programs, he led six major colleges to bowl games, winning a national championship in 1989 after restoring the Irish to greatness.
The NBA’s ‘Bad Boys’ are back—and they are shockingly good: Two years ago, the Pistons could hardly win a game. By piling up technical fouls, they’ve climbed to the top of the standings. WSJ
Aston Martin don’t expect to finish Australian Grand Prix: The Times reports Aston Martin believe they will be unable to finish the first race of the Formula 1 season, with vibrations through the steering wheel so severe that their drivers fear permanent nerve damage. Honda, the team’s power unit manufacturer, admitted that “abnormal vibrations” were the primary cause of reliability issues, damaging the power unit's battery component.
Verstappen says new Red Bull car gave him 'goosebumps': AFP reports four-time world champion Max Verstappen said Thursday he does not know how the opening Grand Prix of the season will play out under sweeping new regulations, but he "got goosebumps" when he first saw the new Red Bull car.
Formula 1’s pivotal year: The motor racing series has new rules, new teams, and a new US broadcaster in Apple. Will it be a recipe for further growth? FT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global