Team Trump to China + America’s Huawei probe

Team Trump’s China gamble

The Trump administration's top economic and trade officials — including Steven Mnuchin, Larry Kudlow, Robert Lighthizer, and Peter Navarro — will head to China next week to try to prevent tit-for-tat tariffs from taking effect. But analysts doubt they can convince Xi Jinping to make any big concessions. 

Trump the deal marker seems confident.

‘I think we’ve got a very good chance of making a deal,’ Trump said earlier this week.

Trump went on to say, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is headed to China in "a few days" to resolve the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. "They trade with us [but] we can't trade with them," Trump declared. Both countries have proposed tariffs on the other, after the Trump administration's Section 301 investigation into China's business practices.

American business continues to be baffled by Trump's goals in China trade battle. No one seems to have the answer to one key question: What will it take for Trump to declare victory and withdraw his threat to impose tariffs on up to $150 billion worth of Chinese goods? 

"Based on my conversations, both with U.S. government officials and Chinese government officials, there's been a lack of specificity in what China could do that would satisfy the United States and avoid the imposition of tariffs and investment restrictions or anything else," Erin Ennis, vice president  the US-China Business Council, said during a panel discussion Wednesday hosted by the Global Business Dialogue, an industry-funded.

Have you ever made a trip to a foreign land with no agenda and clear outcomes?

Usually it is for fun and vacation.

When it is for business and deal making it is called a boondoggle.

Maybe Team Trump will get to see the Great Wall so it won't be a complete waste. 

Huawei pulls €500m bond offering and America’s Huawei probe - Why you should care

Huawei scrapped a bond sale after it emerged that America’s DOJ is investigating the Chinese telecoms giant over suspected violations of Iran-related sanctions. 

Bankers and fixed income investors close to the deal said demand for the bond was strong on Wednesday evening until the company called off the deal without explanation. Some investors speculated that Huawei stopped the deal because the company was aware of an investigation and wanted to protect buyers from any impact on the price of the security.

The €500m ($605m) offering would have been the firm’s first euro-denominated debt sale. The probe reportedly concerns Huawei’s shipments to Iran of products originating in America.

Why should you care?

America’s Huawei probe will lead to China to find its own American target.

Tim Culpan, the technology columnist for Bloomberg Gadfly, in his recent column writes that whether or not Huawei is guilty of busting American sanctions isn’t the point.

With various U.S. government agencies searching for excuses to clamp down on China’s top technology hardware company, all this attention could fall under the rubric of violating a ban on sales to Iran, espionage, or anything else the U.S. government doesn’t like.

He writes it is possible that Huawei may have committed infractions. Or not.

Regardless, what is essential is that American investigations into alleged violations are being escalated. From one rogue company – ZTE Corp. – to another. Two is a coincidence; three is a trend.  If another Chinese company is investigated, Beijing will have the cover it needs to get even tougher on the U.S. and its corporate giants.

There is a lot of smoke around Huawei for a company few Americans can properly pronounce. Start paying attention to this company because regulators in Beijing are and the impact will shape commerce on both sides of the Pacific.

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications and thought leader management at the intersection of politics, policy, and profits. Working with boardrooms and C-Suite executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.

Foreign business and the Chinese Communist Party - additional stress to US-China commercial relations

It is widely agreed by foreign multinational corporations operating in China that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is strengthening its influence — often gaining direct decision-making power — over the international firms doing business in China.

CCP officials are increasingly calling on companies to support the creation of party organizations among their employees. The potential for party groups to influence corporate decision making has raised concern among many US company executives - such an environment is only adding more stress to the US-China commercial relationship.

Since taking power, Xi has reasserted the CCP's supremacy, with himself as its “core” leader. This has meant greater control over personnel and strategy at state-owned enterprises, which control about 40 percent of the China’s industrial production, as well as schools and universities. Xi’s chief policy-making instrument has been an increasing array of party “leading small groups,” which set and coordinate policy. 

Foreign companies are concerned about the establishment of a party unit in a foreign company and what this means should the CCP play a broader role in foreign companies’ operational decision making. For example, making decisions which are political rather than for business reasons. 

No doubt American business is telling the Trump administration such moves by the CCP into potential management roles of foreign-invested enterprises is not a positive step for the commercial relationship. 

Should the current trade irritation between China and the United States worsen, Beijing could be moved to intensify the party’s role in foreign business further, even allowing the boycotting of American goods and services, creating yet more headaches for businesses operating in China.

This real time business environment has put American companies in particular in the middle of a brewing fight between Beijing and Washington.

Enjoy the ride.

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications and thought leader management at the intersection of politics, policy, and profits. Working with boardrooms and C-Suite executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.

The 5G race: China and South Korea are winning

The 5G race is being won by China and South Korea, according to a report conducted by research firm Analysys Mason and released today by CTIA, America's premier wireless industry association.

According to the research, China is in the lead, followed by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. Germany, the U.K. and France are in the second tier of countries in terms of readiness.

America lags in “5G readiness” due to reliance on private providers -- Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and Sprint -- to build antenna infrastructure. China’s wireless providers, on the other hand, are streamlined by government mandate. 

Why this matters - 5G systems support 1k more devices per meter than 4G, using higher frequencies and secondary antennae to relay signals. It also eliminates the transmission inconsistencies and slowdowns caused by buildings, mountains, and crowds.

The global competition is propelling 5G development much faster than was originally expected, with carriers and some cities moving quickly to install infrastructure, said CTIA president and CEO Meredith Attwell Baker, a former FCC commissioner.

The Trump administration see this situation as a threat, especially from China.

Last month the administration blocked Broadcom's proposed buyout of Qualcomm on national security grounds. The administration also fears that Broadcom's business practices would weaken Qualcomm's and the U.S.'s 5G position — allowing Huawei a bigger advantage.

Key findings by Analysys Mason include:

All major Chinese providers have committed to specific launch dates and the government has committed to at least 100 MHz of mid-band spectrum and 2,000 MHz of high-band spectrum for each wireless provider.

Countries around the world are moving quickly to make spectrum available for 5G. This year alone, the U.K., Spain, and Italy are all holding 5G spectrum auctions.

At the end of 2018, the U.S. will rank sixth out of the 10 countries in mid-band (3–24GHz) spectrum availability, a critical band for 5G. The U.S. joins Russia and Canada as the only countries currently without announced plans to allocate mid-band spectrum on an exclusive basis to mobile by the end of 2020.

Countries like the U.K. and regions like the European Union are taking significant steps to modernize infrastructure rules to facilitate the deployment of 5G networks.

Read can read the report here: http://bit.ly/2HFbTqA

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in global communications and thought leader management at the intersection of politics, policy, and profits. Working with boardrooms and C-Suite executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.