ITK Daily | April 26
America vs China, USC, Honda, Taylor Swift, Bears, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
IEA sees electric car boom displacing up to 12 million b/d of oil by 2035: New emissions standards adopted in the US, EU, and Canada over the past year mean oil demand displacement from electric vehicles (EVs) will amount to 6 million b/d by 2030 and 11 million b/d by 2035 based on current policies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook.
Climate change is slowing Earth’s rotation: This simplifies things for the world’s timekeepers. Economist
How strong is India’s economy? It isn’t the next China, but it could still transform itself and the world. Economist
Japan, UK, and Italy aim for next-gen fighter prototype in 2026: Nikkei reports the Japanese parliament begins deliberations on treaty to establish management body.
Taiwan is about to get $1.9 billion in military hardware after President Joe Biden signed into law a foreign aid package that included $8 billion in Indo-Pacific defense support — all in an effort to forestall conflict between China and Taiwan.
US wants allies to cut chip-related China exports amid Huawei alarm: FT reports Washington urges Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands to tighten supply of tools and technology.
The tech wars are about to enter a fiery new phase: America, China and the battle for supremacy. Economist
WP: Blinken set to meet Chinese leaders as superpowers manage rivalry
US accuses China of backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Beijing is “picking a side” and can’t claim to be neutral any more, the US ambassador to NATO tells Politico.
China’s ties with Russia are growing more solid: Our columnist visits a future Russian outpost in China’s most advanced spaceport. Economist
Reuters: China harbors ship tied to North Korea-Russia arms transfers, satellite images show
China said it remains on track for a 2030 crewed lunar landing.
China's Tiangong space station damaged by debris strike: report: Space reports astronauts repaired the damage during two spacewalks this winter.
China prepares UN resolution to tap AI for good: Bloomberg reports China is preparing a United Nations General Assembly resolution that it says is intended to help close gaps between rich and developing countries in the advance of artificial intelligence, an initiative that follows an extensive and ambitious campaign by the US, its biggest AI competitor.
+ “The rapid development of AI technology has not fully benefited the vast majority of developing countries.” -- Tao Wang, a spokeswoman for the Chinese mission to the UN.
EU to China: Open your public markets or we’ll close ours: Politico reports the European Commission has launched a probe into how Beijing grants public contracts for medical devices.
Germany's China envoy summoned by Beijing over spying claims: DW reports Germany's ambassador to China says she was summoned by Chinese authorities after four Germans were arrested on suspicion of spying for Beijing.
Protests as Venice becomes first city to charge tourist entry fee: The Times reports day-trippers are now required to pay €5 for access on 29 days of the year in an effort to cut overcrowding.
An optimist’s guide to the next Labour government: Political stability, catch-up growth, and better luck would make 2024 a good election to win. Chris Giles
Labour has promised to renationalize most of Britain’s railways in five years if it wins the next general election. Private companies took over the lines in the 1990s.
Emmanuel Macron said Europe should remain ‘sovereign’ from the United States, in a speech at Sorbonne University. He said the continent should ‘talk to all the other regions of the world.’
WP: Europe needs to be stronger, not a U.S. ‘vassal,’ says France’s Macron
The Times: Macron calls for defence boost to stop EU from ‘dying’
In an EU speech, Macron says Europe is 'mortal' and 'can die': Le Monde reports that a few weeks ahead of the June European elections, the French president outlined his vision of Europe in a speech at the Sorbonne in Paris.
Sorbonne speech: Will Macron's European plea be heard? French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a paradigm shift in a Paris speech on European integration. That might not necessarily inspire voters at home. DW
DR Congo accuses Apple of using 'blood minerals' from war-torn east: AFP reports the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo is accusing Apple of using "illegally exploited" minerals extracted from the country's embattled east in its products, lawyers representing the African country said Thursday.
US to withdraw troops from Chad, dealing another blow to Africa policy: The departure of US military personnel in Chad and Niger comes as both countries are turning away from years of cooperation with the United States and forming partnerships with Russia. NYT
US vs. Russia: Why the Biden strategy in Africa may be failing: The US is expected to lose access to a critical drone base in Niger that it uses to fight ISIS in the Sahel. Politico
US troops to leave Chad, as another African state reassesses ties: WP reports dozens of American personnel will leave the Central African nation, at least temporarily, as the two governments negotiate their security agreement.
NYT: Army begins building floating aid pier off Gaza’s coast, Pentagon says
Caught between the US and China, a powerful AI upstart chooses sides: Abu Dhabi-based G42 found it could no longer play for both teams. Bloomberg
‘To the future’: Saudi Arabia spends big to become an AI superpower: The oil-rich kingdom is plowing money into glitzy events, computing power, and artificial intelligence research, putting it in the middle of an escalating US-China struggle for technological influence. NYT
New Haitian transition council takes office, but long road awaits: WSJ reports former Prime Minister Ariel Henry formally resigns after nearly three-year rule marked by escalating violence; transition council to decide on a new prime minister, prepare for elections.
Bloomberg: Javier Milei fuels wild rally that makes peso No. 1 in world
+ The peso is key to Milei’s push to tame soaring inflation
+ But the economic pain from fiscal austerity is mounting
Amid Argentina's protests, are Javier Milei's days numbered? DW reports the ultra-libertarian president has proposed harsh austerity measures to tame Argentina's budget and boost its economy. But with hundreds of thousands protesting proposed education cuts, has he gone a step too far?
WP: New channel lets long-trapped ships escape from Baltimore Harbor
TikTok and the US government dig in for legal war: The Biden administration has worked to distance itself from past ill-fated TikTok ban attempts. Legal scholars say the new law might be just as legally flawed. WP
How TikTok’s Chinese owner tightened its grip on the app: Insiders say ByteDance exerting increasing influence over platform despite US pressure over ownership. FT
In the case of TikTok, the US risks losing some of its moral high ground: The dispute between Beijing and Washington over control of the social media network, which is used by 170 million Americans, marks a further step back from the concept of an 'open' internet. Harold Thibault
The US fertility rate declined by 2% to a record low of 1.62 last year, according to new provisional figures.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
A day all about Trump: Mostly out of sight, but still ubiquitous: NYT reports from the Supreme Court to a Manhattan courtroom, Thursday showed how much of the 2024 campaign centers on Trump’s legal dramas.
Ex-Enquirer publisher says he and others around Trump feared his anger: NYT reports they called Donald J. Trump “the boss.” The desire to avoid his fury drove many decisions made by those around him.
Utah: The first-in-the-nation law imposing regulations on the deployment of generative artificial intelligence in the private sector is set to go into effect on May 1.
+ The AI Policy Act, SB 149, amends the state’s consumer protection and privacy laws by imposing transparency requirements on companies that use AI.
+ The law puts all the responsibility on companies deploying AI, and does little to regulate the technology itself. That means a company using someone else’s model (think ChatGPT or Gemini) will be at fault if that model violates the law.
California: The Assembly Privacy + Consumer Protection Committee will next week take up a bill that would require disclosure of data used to train AI models, seen by advocates as a step toward compensating creators for their contributions to AI.
+ More than 400 AI-related bills have been introduced across more than 40 states
USC cancels its main graduation ceremony, citing security concerns: NYT reports there have been student protests and arrests, as well as controversy over the school’s decision to cancel the speech of its valedictorian.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
IPO activity has also slowed: The first quarter of 2024 saw the lowest number of IPOs since the COVID-19-restricted market of 2020, and IPOs are down almost 70% since 2021.
Nuclear fusion experiment overcomes two key operating hurdles: Two important barriers to a stable, powerful fusion reaction have been leapt by an experiment in a small tokamak reactor, but we don’t yet know if the technique will work in larger devices. New Scientist
Can Elon Musk pull off a Mark Zuckerberg? Kevin T. Dugan
Bloomberg: Elon Musk’s xAI startup closes in on $6 billion fundraising
Generative AI is still a solution in search of a problem: Axios reports the gigantic and costly industry Silicon Valley is building around generative AI is still struggling to explain the technology's utility.
+ AI chatbots and image generators are making headlines and fortunes, but a year and a half into their revolution, it remains tough to say exactly why we should all start using them.
AI shakes up corporate boards: Axios reports AI is forcing corporate boards to change how they operate, with the most aggressive companies appointing AI bots as observers to their boards and putting tech at the center of their board strategy work.
+ The world's largest companies are increasingly obsessed with AI — mentioning it repeatedly in 2024 earnings calls — but most boards lack the expertise to effectively guide AI strategies.
What is an AI anyway? Mustafa Suleyman @ TED
It’s not only AI that hallucinates: Human memory is also fallible but people and machines can learn to complement each other. John Thornhill
Bloomberg: Alphabet beats revenue estimates as AI fuels cloud growth
Alphabet set to surge past $2tn valuation as search giant announces first dividend: FT reports shares of Google’s parent company jump after first-quarter earnings beat expectations and $70bn stock buyback.
Microsoft earnings jump on AI demand: WSJ reports the software giant is spending billions of dollars to integrate AI into many of its products.
Meta’s gamble on chatbots opens new wave of tech competition: Zuckerberg’s AI plans may have knocked its stock market value, but he hopes his next venture will have dramatic impact. FT
The AI hype bubble is deflating. Now comes the hard part. The tech industry got the world’s attention with AI. Now it’s busy persuading people to pay for it. WP
Big Tech keeps spending billions on AI. There’s no end in sight. Much of the money is going to new data centers, which are predicted to place huge demands on the US power grid. WP
OpenAI wants you to see AI as the next "critical infrastructure" and aims to showcase how its tech helps "everyday people" and can tackle big challenges in health care, education, and climate.
+ "My historical analogy here is the New Deal." -- Chris Lehane
AI could kill off most call centers, says Tata Consultancy Services head: FT reports chatbots will soon take over much of the work of human agents, forecasts chief of Indian IT group.
Toyota + Nissan are partnering with tech companies Tencent and Baidu to introduce AI in their cars.
Bloomberg: Most global tech leaders see their companies unprepared for AI
+ Lenovo survey of CIOs reveals biggest pain points for AI use
+ Many don’t expect return on AI investment for next two years
Apple moves closer to China despite supply chain shifts: Japan, Taiwan and US supplier numbers dip as iPhone maker expands in Southeast Asia. Nikkei
Can 400 comedians convince you to keep Netflix? NY Mag
Billionaire Stephen Ross believes in South Florida—and is spending big to transform it: The Related Cos. founder is following the money flowing south by bringing his influence to everything from real estate to schools and health care. Bloomberg
Global wine consumption continues to decline in 2023: Le Monde reports according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine, consumption fell by 2.6% year-on-year to 221 million hectoliters. Similarly, on the production side, indicators are also negative.
Coffee prices are expected to extend their meteoric surge with the hoarding of beans and poor weather set to exacerbate a supply crunch in Vietnam, the world’s biggest producer of the robusta variety.
$330bn: The amount that Tesla has lost in stock market value since January.
Honda announces US$11 bn EV battery and vehicle plant in Canada: AFP reports Japanese auto giant Honda announced Thursday the largest automotive investment in Canada's history, worth Can$15 billion (US$11 billion), for a massive new EV battery and vehicle assembly plant.
The ambitions of China’s BYD stretch well beyond electric vehicles: The company’s global plans range from solar modules and electric buses, trucks, and trains to complex transport systems. But is it trying to do too much? FT
*** Culture ***
Has Taylor Swift peaked? The musician is at the height of her commercial, but not her creative, power. Economist
There's Still Tomorrow: The film which beat Barbie at the box office in Italy: Greta Gerwig's Barbie may be the most financially successful movie ever to be directed by a female filmmaker, and the highest-grossing film of 2023. But it was beaten at the box office in Italy by another film, also made by a woman and speaking directly about the female experience. BBC
*** Sport ***
Amazon, YouTube vie for NBA streaming rights as league’s media talks heat up: WSJ reports the league is advancing toward lucrative deals with incumbent partners and is in talks with tech giants as well as NBCUniversal.
Bloomberg: Chicago Bears face long-shot push for $3.2 billion stadium
+ Team seeks aid from state financing authority for new stadium
+ State leaders skeptical about using tax dollars for project
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
ITK Daily | April 25
ITK Daily | April 25
Spycatchers, Thunder Run, Meta, Davos, Reggie Bush, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Thursday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
AP: Biden says the US is rushing weaponry to Ukraine as he signs a $95 billion war aid measure into law
The race is on: Will US aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army? NBC News reports for many in Kyiv, the news that the aid package had finally passed Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is still ahead.
European-trained Ukrainian F-16 pilots will not be ready until late 2024: Le Monde reports between the ages of 21 and 23, with very little experience, the 10 soldiers in training will have to spend several more months on the Old Continent before they acquire the knowledge and experience required for combat aviation.
The US secretly sent long-range ATACMS to Ukraine — and Kyiv used them: Politico reports the transfer of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a nearly 200-mile range ends a yearslong drama between Washington and Kyiv.
+ Russia vetoed a resolution introduced by the U.S. and Japan aimed at nuclear nonproliferation in space Wednesday afternoon.
TikTok sell-or-ban law gets Biden's approval, starting 9-month countdown: Nikkei reports the Chinese-owned video platform vows to prevail in a court challenge.
+ Shou Zi Chew, TikTok’s CEO, told users that the app isn’t “going anywhere” and that the company will challenge America’s latest crackdown, which President Joe Biden signed on Wednesday, in court.
Europe shrugs off Washington’s TikTok fears: Politico reports though it was previously willing to follow in America’s footsteps, Europe’s response is muted this time around, largely avoiding debate about the app as the EU election looms.
Bloomberg: TikTok halts ‘lite’ rewards program, fending off EU suspension
How a second Trump presidency could tear Europe apart: The former president’s return would cement a shift in the US as a fact that can no longer be ignored. Politico
Trump 2.0: How US allies are preparing for a second term: Reuters reports Germany is waging a charm offensive inside the Republican Party. Japan is lining up its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government officials are talking to Camp Trump. And Australia is busy making laws to help Trump-proof its US defense ties.
Analysis: The ulterior motive behind Xi Jinping's latest military reforms: Reorganization of Strategic Support Force shows Xi preparing for a fourth term. Nikkei
NHK: US Secretary of State Blinken arrives in Shanghai
US top diplomat Blinken visits China for tough talks: DW reports Antony Blinken arrived in China for his second visit in a year to discuss a range of issues amid rising tensions between the two countries.
Bloomberg: TikTok ultimatum makes US firms a target for China retaliation
+ Beijing could use market access to as weapon to retaliate
+ President Xi has to balance looking strong with economic needs
Japan and Brazil to sign decarbonization deal at May summit: Nikkei reports the countries eye cooperation on biofuel technology and Amazon protection.
Spanish PM Sanchez considers resigning after wife's graft probe: Le Monde reports the preliminary investigation into Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's wife, Begona Gomez, concerns 'the alleged offense of influence peddling and corruption,' according to a Madrid court.
German spycatchers raise game against China and Russia: Recent arrests only ‘tip of the iceberg’, with hundreds more operatives believed to be ‘up to mischief’ in Germany. FT
UK regulator examines Microsoft and Amazon’s AI dealmaking: FT reports a request for comments into Big Tech’s alliances with artificial intelligence start-ups follows CMA study into fast-growing market.
Bloomberg: Microsoft, Amazon AI deals get UK antitrust scrutiny
+ CMA to look at Anthropic, Mistral and Inflection investments
+ Amazon says the investigation by CMA is unprecedented
The rare earths mine becoming a bellwether for US minerals policy: Future of South Africa’s Phalaborwa site may depend on strength of Washington’s support. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
A very tight presidential race: A new Pew Research poll finds Donald Trump barely edging Joe Biden in the presidential race, 49% to 48% among registered voters.
Biden’s gains against Trump vanish on deep economic pessimism, poll shows: Bloomberg reports the president is trailing Donald Trump in six of seven swing states as a majority of poll respondents see the economy worsening by the end of the year.
How Trump turned the 2016 primary into a supermarket tabloid gutter fight WP
Bloomberg: Trump to convene donors, vice president hopefuls in Palm Beach
+ Tim Scott, Kristi Noem among those slated to attend event
+ Trump has spent past two weeks in New York courtroom
Trump is a co-conspirator in Michigan's 2020 false electors plot, state investigator says: Detroit News reports Michigan prosecutors consider former President Donald Trump and some of his top aides co-conspirators in the plot to submit a certificate falsely claiming he won Michigan's 2020 election, an investigator for Attorney General Dana Nessel's office testified Wednesday in court.
Meadows, Giuliani, and other Trump allies charged in Arizona 2020 election probe: WP reports the indictments cap a year-long investigation by Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D) into how the 2020 pro-Trump elector strategy played out in Arizona, which Joe Biden won by 10,457 votes.
So, 112 ignoble, infantile Republicans voted to endanger civilization George Will
‘Thunder Run’: Behind lawmakers’ secretive push to pass the TikTok bill: A tiny group of lawmakers huddled in private about a year ago, aiming to keep the discussions away from TikTok lobbyists while bulletproofing a bill that could ban the app. NYT
Reuters: US TikTok bill sets up fight over free speech protections
Biden signed a bill to force a sale of TikTok or ban it. What’s next? TikTok says it will fight the law in court, while young voters warn targeting the app is “an unforced error.” Politico
Biden campaign plans to keep using TikTok through the election: NBC News reports the possible ban that the president signed into law Wednesday won't go into effect until January, at the earliest, and his campaign told NBC News it will keep using TikTok for now.
Bloomberg: Biden makes $11 billion push to beat China at chip research
+ “We need to find out ways to make it easier for people to get into chip design in this country, rather than developing yet another app or yet another piece of AI software.” -- Deirdre Hanford, who leads the new government-backed National Semiconductor Technology Center, or NSTC.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
BHP proposes takeover of Anglo American in mining mega-deal: FT reports the combination would bring together two of the industry’s largest companies.
Bloomberg: Netflix Is Betting Big on Latin America
Why Detroit’s Black Tech Saturday matters: Black Tech Saturday is part of a broader renaissance centered around Michigan Central Station, a subsidiary of Ford Motor Co. and part of the automaker’s commitment to rebuild and repurpose the 111-year-old Detroit train station that lay in near ruin for decades. Bloomberg
+ Over a third of US workers fear losing their jobs or facing hour or pay cuts due to AI, according to YouGov. Conversely, nearly 60% of workers are not concerned about AI impacting their jobs.
Meta’s costs rise rapidly as Zuckerberg vows to keep spending on AI arms race: WSJ reports Meta reported record first-quarter sales, but investors soured on forecasts of rising costs related to AI. Shares fell about 15% after hours.
Meta says it plans to spend billions more on AI: NYT reports along with the higher spending, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp projected lighter-than-expected revenue, causing its stock to plummet.
Meta profits soar but costs of AI cause worry: AFP reports Facebook-owner Meta on Wednesday said its quarterly profits soared last quarter, but worries about the cost of artificial intelligence saw its share price take a hit on Wall Street.
Meta’s AI assistant is fun to use, but it can’t be trusted: Despite Mark Zuckerberg’s hope for the chatbot to be the smartest, it struggles with facts, numbers and web search. NYT
Apple released large language models called OpenELM, or Open-source Efficient Language Models. The model family is designed to run on devices instead of in the cloud.
Amazon will allow companies to use DIY models inside its Bedrock platform for creating AI apps.
Founders Fund led a $175M funding round in Cognition Labs, valuing the AI startup at $2B.
Pharma startup uses AI to test old drugs to treat rare diseases: Bloomberg reports Transcripta Bio’s AI software analyzes rare diseases to see if existing pharmaceuticals can help.
Sony installs AI cameras in 500 Japan 7-Elevens for consumer analysis: Nikkei reports the setup measures viewership of in-store signs and subsequent purchases.
How GM tricked millions of drivers into being spied on (including me): This privacy reporter and her husband bought a Chevrolet Bolt in December. Two risk-profiling companies had been getting detailed data about their driving ever since. NYT
Why chipmakers are investing billions into ‘advanced packaging’: The technique of stacking multiple chips closely together is crucial to improving the performance of semiconductors. FT
Bloomberg: AI memory boom propels SK Hynix's fastest sales growth since 2010
+ High-end memory, NAND rebound help chipmaker log record growth
+ Memory makers locked in race to supply AI-powering chips
Nvidia is acquiring Run:ai, an Israeli software company that helps companies manage and optimize AI hardware infrastructure.
*** Culture ***
Amid the posers and the prosecco, Milan remains the true design capital: The annual Salone del Mobile is a vast display of slick superfluousness, but at its heart is a deep regard for tradition and craftsmanship. Edwin Heathcote
‘Not Davos again!’ - The new billionaire retreats: For plutocrats who have everything the Swiss resort is no longer the ne plus ultra for invitation-only networking events. The Times
‘Miss AI’ is billed as a leap forward – but feels like a monumental step backwards: AI models take every toxic gendered beauty norm and bundle them up into completely unrealistic package. Guardian
*** Sport ***
WP: Reggie Bush gets his Heisman Trophy back after it was stripped in 2010
How next-gen data analytics is changing American football: At the NFL’s Big Data Bowl, scientists compete to develop new stats that better capture player performance. Knowable
The Olympic Games, an ancient geopolitical forum: Since Athens in 1896, the Games have always echoed the upheavals of history. The 'Olympism: a History of the World' exhibition at the Palais de la Porte-Dorée in Paris explores this 130-year epic. Le Monde
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc