*** Ross Rant ***
Is Wall Street ignoring the next recession?
Wall Street’s calm is striking. Investors keep betting the US will dodge a recession, but the signals tell a different story. Warnings are everywhere, yet hope is the primary strategy in play. If leaders in Washington keep brushing off these signs, voters will certainly remind them in the next mid-term election.
Let’s talk labor. Unemployment is low, but job growth has slowed to a crawl. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said there were only 150,000 new jobs in July. For months, payroll gains have lagged. That’s not the kind of trend you want when trying to avoid a downturn. Worse, the government recently admitted it overstated job growth by almost a million last year. When numbers get revised down, it means the ground is shakier than we thought.
The leading economic indicators back this up. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which tracks things like new orders, jobless claims, and what people expect, dropped 0.5% in August. Over the last half year, it fell even faster. The index’s “recession signal” is now flashing red, warning that a downturn could be near. Stock prices and easy credit have kept the index from dropping further, but those can turn fast.
Why does this matter? These indicators have a strong track record. When the labor market cools, job openings shrink, and wage growth slows, a slump often follows. The Kansas City Fed and other regional banks see the same pattern: hiring continues, but more slowly, and layoffs are creeping up. These are not the marks of a healthy, growing economy.
So what’s fueling the risk?
Tariffs and trade fights have already trimmed growth this year. Businesses face higher costs and more doubt about where to invest. The Conference Board names tariffs as a significant drag, and the International Monetary Fund warns that trade fights and policy swings could tip us into recession. When companies can’t plan, they stop hiring and spending.
Regulatory confusion adds another layer. When rules and taxes change without warning, businesses freeze. Both Brookings and Harvard Business Review find that policy swings are a top worry for CEOs. If Washington keeps sending mixed signals, companies will keep their wallets closed and hiring plans on hold.
Market power is part of the problem. As a handful of big firms dominate key sectors, the economy grows more fragile. The Financial Times notes that this can exacerbate shocks and prolong recovery. When fewer players control the market, one misstep can ripple through the whole system.
Some on Wall Street claim recession odds have dropped. Recent surveys put the risk at about one in three for the next year, down from almost half earlier this spring. But one-in-three is not a reason to relax. The Conference Board points out that the depth and spread of weakness across key indicators now meet recession warning criteria.
Hope is not a plan.
Leaders in Congress, the White House, and business must face the facts. The risks are real, and the signals are clear. Tariffs, policy swings, and market power add fuel to the fire. Ignoring these signals means sleepwalking into a downturn that could have been avoided—with more realistic moves.
It’s time to stop betting on luck and start planning for what’s next. The US has weathered storms before, but only when leaders paid attention to the signs and acted before it was too late.
-Marc
*** A11. ***
AP: As the world convulses in war and contentiousness, its leaders convene at the UN to figure it out
Americans view United Nations as necessary, but ineffective, poll finds: A new Gallup poll released Monday found that 63 percent of respondents say the UN is doing a poor job. Politico
Amid global turmoil, 80-year-old UN struggles for relevance: World leaders are meeting in New York to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations' establishment following World War II. However, the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine, recent Russian violations of NATO airspace, and US funding cuts are calling its future into question. AFP
It’s gridlock week in Manhattan as UN General Assembly starts: With the United Nations session kicking off Monday, the city is closing some streets and stepping up police presence. It is usually one of the slowest weeks for traffic in Midtown. NYT
Bloomberg: Trump heads to UN gathering facing billions in unpaid dues
Europe, Canada, Saudi Arabia poke at Trump with Palestinian statehood: Politico reports France and others frustrated with US inaction on Israel have few options to reorient the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
France recognizes state of Palestine, Macron declares at UN: AFP reports the French president, during a United Nations speech on Monday, recognized a Palestinian state, saying he would continue to fight against antisemitism, after criticism from Israel and the United States.
France defies Trump administration, recognizes Palestinian statehood: WP reports Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to kill France’s recognition of Palestinian statehood, publicly lambasting it as a “gift to Hamas” in advance of the UN summit in New York.
The Times: Recognising Palestine ‘is a reward for Hamas’, says Trump
Macron's slow shift toward recognizing the State of Palestine: After expressing unwavering support for Israel, the French president gradually shifted his stance on the two-state solution following October 7, 2023, and the conflict in Gaza. This reversal will culminate in France's official recognition of the State of Palestine at the UN on September 22. Le Monde
How Macron and Saudi Arabia turned the tide on Western support for a Palestinian state: France’s recognition caps French President Emmanuel Macron’s monthslong effort to persuade other countries to follow suit. WSJ
A Palestinian state for Hamas: After Oct. 7, nations grant recognition even without reconciliation. WSJ-Editorial
How Israel tried to halt the wave of recognition of the state of Palestine: Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver his speech recognizing Palestine on September 22 at the UN headquarters in New York. In retaliation, Israel is considering closing the French consulate in Jerusalem and annexing part of the West Bank. Le Monde
Bloomberg: Israel’s war costs seen rising $7.5 billion on Gaza City assault
Putin proposes one more year of nuclear caps with US: NYT reports Putin said Russia didn’t want to provoke a strategic arms race with the United States, but his offer is limited in scope.
Russian warplanes breach NATO airspace in ‘dangerous provocation’ over Estonia: Politico reports Russian MiG-31s flew into Estonian airspace before Italian jets were scrambled to intercept them.
Russia escalates military tensions with European countries: Le Monde reports the incursion of three Russian aircraft into Estonian airspace is 'yet another example of reckless Russian behavior,' NATO said. This incident between the allies and Moscow comes as major military exercises are taking place on both sides.
Poland will shoot down encroaching Russian aircraft, warns PM Tusk: Politoco reports the Polish prime minister is responding to the growing number of Russian incursions into NATO airspace.
Copenhagen Airport halts air traffic after drone sightings: DW reports that, according to FlightRadar, some 35 flights were diverted from Denmark's principal airport. Security concerns in northern Europe have increased in recent weeks after Russian fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace.
Putin is playing a dangerous game with NATO: All is far from quiet on the alliance’s eastern front. Gideon Rachman
When it comes to tech, Britain must avoid becoming Nebraska: Silicon Valley’s investment may be welcome, but the UK should not allow itself to be a data-centre farm. Tim Wu
Africa’s forgotten battleground in the US-China tech war Semafor
Bloomberg: Trump’s visa shock strains India-US ties, clouds trade talks
Trump’s $100,000 visa fee knocks down bridge between India and the US: NYT reports the H-1B visa lured a generation of Indian professionals to take part in the American dream. A $100,000 fee has forced a rethink of the route.
+ Shares in Indian IT companies fell by nearly 3% on Monday after Trump announced an increase in H1B visa fees from around $1,500 to $100,000.
+ Out of nearly 400,000 such visas issued to skilled foreign workers in 2024, 71% were for Indian nationals.
The perverse consequence of America’s $100,000 visa fees: Offshoring to India and other countries could accelerate. Economist
White House ‘100 percent’ sure TikTok deal with China will close: Politico reports Trump to give 120 more days to finalize terms, as his administration details the plan for an American-owned app.
White House promises US-controlled TikTok algorithm: AFP reports the White House on Monday said a US version of TikTok would feature a homegrown model of the app's prized algorithm, potentially clearing one of the main obstacles to keeping the Chinese-owned platform online in the United States.
TikTok algorithm to be overseen by Oracle in Trump deal: FT reports White House says US owners of app will lease and rebuild ByteDance’s recommendation software.
TikTok US operations to move to joint venture backed by Oracle, Silver Lake: Nikkei reports the algorithm to be retrained, operated, and monitored by a US entity, White House says.
Bloomberg: Murdochs, burned on MySpace, seek return to social with TikTok
China’s edge over US biotech was never scientific: Lower the costs of development for American scientists, too. Scott Gottlieb
China may strengthen climate role amid US fossil fuel push: AFP reports all eyes are on China this week, as the world's biggest polluter readies a new emissions-cutting plan -- reinforcing its role as a steadfast defender of global climate diplomacy while Europe stalls and the United States doubles down on fossil fuels.
China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs: Shipments have soared outside the US this year, but countries dealing with the glut appear reluctant to take on another trade war — for now. Bloomberg
The Waldorf’s makeover went a billion over budget—and China is footing the bill: The storied New York hotel fully reopens next month after an eight-year saga in which the buyer went to prison and the Chinese government took over. WSJ
Kim Jong Un’s proposition to Trump: Let’s talk—but not about nukes: North Korean leader’s offer challenges long-held US denuclearization policy of no dialogue unless disarmament is on the table. WSJ
Dominican Republic says it recovered cocaine from suspected drug-boat strike: WSJ reports announcement sheds light on a shadowy US campaign to launch airstrikes against drug trafficking in the Caribbean.
Canada wildlife decline 'most severe' in decades: WWF: AFP reports biodiversity in Canada has plunged 10 percent over the last half century, with hundreds of species facing extinction, the World Wildlife Fund said in a report Monday.
Bloomberg: Bessent backs Argentina fully as Milei hunts down more dollars
US pledges support for Argentina’s economy and a Trump ally in crisis: NYT reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “all options” are under consideration to help President Javier Milei.
US Treasury chief hints at Argentina financial rescue: WSJ reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is looking at options as Argentina struggles to overhaul its economy.
Argentina’s finances just got even more surreal: Scott Bessent says Uncle Sam is underwriting Mr Milei’s laboratory. Economist
How Trump can help Argentina’s Javier Milei: The South American friend of the US needs a stable currency, which probably requires dollarization. WSJ-Editorial
US sanctions wife of Brazilian judge who oversaw Bolsonaro prosecution: Politico reports the new sanctions are a part of an ongoing pressure campaign to undermine the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
US military buildup in Caribbean signals broader campaign against Venezuela: NYT reports Trump officials say the mission aims to disrupt the drug trade. But military officials and analysts say the real goal might be driving Venezuela’s president from power.
Reuters: Trump's new visa policy inspires mostly sour response from tech firms
Bloomberg: ‘Patients will wait longer:’ $100,000 visa fee risks worsening doctor shortage
American colleges are going all out to hold on to international students: International students contributed $43.8 billion to the US economy in a recent year. WSJ
Trump’s tariffs are damaging America’s biggest foreign source of screws: Taiwan has long been the top provider of screws to the United States. But its factories are struggling to survive under tariffs on steel and aluminum. NYT
Trump’s team explores government-backed manufacturing boost: Discussions center on how to use money from a $550 billion fund to spur construction of factories and other infrastructure. WSJ
NYT: President promotes unproven ties to autism with a common painkiller and vaccines
AP: Trump makes unfounded claims about Tylenol and repeats discredited link between vaccines and autism
Trump warns pregnant women to avoid Tylenol: WSJ reports the president said acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, is a potential cause of autism, as his administration touted a little-known drug as treatment for autism symptoms.
As Trump ties Tylenol to autism, doctors raise alarms and urge more research: WP reports US officials will issue a warning label on Tylenol for those who are pregnant, a move that contradicts the guidance from the major medical societies.
Bloomberg: Trump cancels trail, bike-lane grants deemed ‘hostile’ to cars
Pentagon to limit journalists’ access unless they agree not to publish certain information: Politico reports the unprecedented move is the strongest action yet in restricting how reporters cover the country’s largest federal agency.
Top goon: Kristi Noem is the face of Trump’s police state. Corey Lewandowski is the muscle. Who really runs DHS? Ben Terris
Lutnick wants a tax that would kill innovation: All of us benefit when universities earn royalties on inventions resulting from subsidized research. Joe Allen
White House denies Homan took bag of cash in FBI inquiry: NYT reports people familiar with an undercover FBI investigation say Trump’s border czar was recorded on audio tape accepting a Cava bag with $50,000 in it last year.
AP: Supreme Court will weigh expanding Trump’s power to shape independent agencies
Supreme Court allows Trump to fire FTC commissioner: NYT reports the justices said they will consider whether to overrule a landmark Supreme Court precedent that has limited the president’s ability to fire top officials at the agency.
Why Democrats are holding firm on conditions ahead of shutdown: Democrats are using their limited leverage ahead of a potential government shutdown, hoping to convince Americans that GOP spending priorities are the real danger. WP
White House frenemies: Biden-Harris rift reflects long pattern of history: Many presidents and vice presidents fall out by the end of their tenures, a fraught dynamic that goes back to the early days of the republic. NYT
Trump looms over New Jersey's race for governor as candidates clash in their first debate: NBC reports Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill sparred over their approaches to the Trump administration, the cost of living, education, taxes, and more.
The wary, warming, wildly consequential alliance of Ocasio-Cortez and Mamdani: She was the ‘big sister’ he hoped to impress. He seemed inexperienced to her. Now, they’re the faces of a political movement — and New York is its test case. NYT
John James’s run for Michigan governor frustrates House GOP leadership: ‘It stings’ Wash Ex
Could 2028 be the 'YouTube election’? Amid the rapid decline of cable news, potential candidates and other elected officials are locked in a digital arms race to draw subscribers, boost their reach, and build what amounts to their own broadcast networks. Politico
‘Look at the charts’: Democrats desert legacy media for new outlets Semafor
CNBC: Disney says ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live’ will return to ABC on Tuesday
Kimmel’s late-night show to return to ABC Tuesday: WSJ reports ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ had been suspended indefinitely last Wednesday, after controversy erupted over his remarks regarding the killing of Charlie Kirk
+ Sinclair will not air ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ upon its ABC return Tuesday: "Discussions with ABC are ongoing as we evaluate the show’s potential return.”
Arguments against digital ID are paper thin: The world has moved on: most voters now support compulsory identification to simplify government and tackle illegal migration. William Hague
‘ChatGPT told me I was a prophet. ’ How chatbots fuel AI psychosis: The Human Line Project is aimed at people who believe chatbots are conscious or that they have gained superhuman abilities by using one. The Times
Why AI systems might never be secure: A “lethal trifecta” of conditions opens them to abuse. Economist
Reddit wants a lot more money from AI companies John Herrman
Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI: WSJ reports the companies outlined an expansive partnership that includes plans for an enormous AI data-center buildout.
Nvidia’s $100bn bet on OpenAI raises more questions than it answers: What if OpenAI hits a roadblock? Economist
Nasdaq rises to record: WSJ reports US stocks ended higher after Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI.
Solar-powered cars and trucks are almost here: New, power-sipping EVs due next year are efficient enough to gain 10 to 40 miles of daily charge from the sun alone. Christopher Mims
Kubota unveils 'world's first' driverless fuel cell tractor: Nikkei reports autonomous farming machine showcased at World Expo in Osaka.
THR: Christopher Nolan elected president of Directors Guild of America
Robert Redford: A classic American ideal who escaped the mold: Though he got his start under the old studio system, he remained a natural in the New Hollywood and beyond. NYT
The disappointment of downtown Brooklyn: Twenty years after it was upzoned, it’s become a showcase of millennial architectural mediocrity. Justin Davidson
Paris’s Pompidou Centre will close for a five-year renovation costing nearly €500 million.
ESPN: Bruce Pearl steps down as Auburn hoops coach after 11 seasons
‘Indiana Jones’ and the stunning rise of the Indianapolis Colts: A presumed NFL afterthought is 3-0 and off to a perfect start. A rejected New York quarterback is helping to lead the way. Jason Gay
Ousmane Dembele and Aitana Bonmati win top 2025 Ballon d’Or awards: Paris Saint-Germain’s Ousmane Dembele and Barcelona’s Aitana Bonmati have won the top prizes at the 2025 Ballon d’Or awards ceremony in Paris, France.
Mexican football aims for better investment deal with Apollo: Clubs failed to agree to the terms of a $1.3bn capital injection by the US asset management giant last year. FT
Detroit Tigers AL Central collapse hits epic level, but is it worst in MLB history? Ryan Ford
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
A11. | September 23
