EU to be ‘ready’ for war with Russia by 2030: The European Commission aims to help the bloc prepare “for the battlefields of tomorrow.” Politico
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows: Politico reports mounting drone incursions are sparking a debate on national rules that some see as limiting NATO’s top military officer.
Trump ‘optimistic’ he can bring Russia and Ukraine to peace after Middle East hostage exchange: Politico reports President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet in Washington on Friday.
Hegseth warns of ‘costs on Russia’ in latest sign of shifting US stance: Politico reports the Defense secretary spoke before a meeting of European defense leaders that he has skipped in the past.
Pete Hegseth vows to ‘impose costs’ on Russia if war in Ukraine continues: The Times reports US secretary of war urges Nato allies to increase American weapons purchases for Kyiv after a report showing a sharp decline in western military support.
Bessent urges Japan, other countries to cut imports of Russian LNG: Nikkei reports anyone that buys Russian energy is 'subsidizing the attack on the Ukrainian people.'
The America v China spat reveals a dangerous dynamic: A balance of economic terror is no basis for stability. Economist
China got Trump’s attention but renewed a risky game of chicken: Xi Jinping’s need to project strength before a crucial meeting of Communist Party leaders may help explain why Beijing announced new rare earth controls. NYT
Fortifying America’s Pacific front line is getting expensive and difficult: The Pentagon is bolstering its assets in Guam with ‘latest and greatest technology’ to deter Beijing. WSJ
Rare-earth 'de-risking' from China will be dirty and costly, analysts warn: Nikkei reports Bessent urges US and allies to diversify supply chains immediately.
US warns world will ‘decouple’ from China if it imposes new export controls: FT reports Scott Bessent says Washington will retaliate if Beijing proceeds with policy on rare earths and critical minerals.
Trump to expand government stake in strategic sectors to combat China: Greater domestic mining and processing of rare earth minerals is an especially urgent priority in battling Chinese competition, the treasury secretary said. WP
US to take control of more companies to counter China: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China’s dominance of rare earths calls for a more assertive American industrial policy. NYT
America is heavily reliant on China for raw materials in medicines: A new analysis found that nearly 700 drugs approved for use in the United States depend on chemicals solely produced in China. NYT
Keir Starmer publishes evidence in collapsed China spy case: The security adviser Matt Collins said the Chinese conducted espionage operations against the UK, but the government wanted a ‘positive relationship’ with Beijing. The Times
Dominic Cummings: China ‘stole’ classified state secrets: Boris Johnson’s former adviser claims that Beijing harvested hugely sensitive data for years and that senior officials deliberately ‘buried’ the breach. The Times
China’s hold on UK infrastructure — from nuclear power to Heathrow: Chinese companies have stakes in National Grid and Thames Water as well as plans to build Britain’s largest wind turbine manufacturing facility. The Times
Now it’s clear, China hawks were right all along: While a group of MPs stood up for the nation’s security over spying, the government failed to stand up to Beijing. Juliet Samuel
Analysis: China-Japan ties in limbo as Xi, Takaichi mind domestic politics: As Beijing's security purges rage on, Tokyo witnesses the collapse of the ruling coalition. Nikkei
How Israeli jails became a Palestinian training ground: Thousands of Palestinians were freed from Israeli prisons this week. Some are seen as future militant and political chiefs. FT
Israel and Hamas start next phase of talks on Trump plan: WSJ reports the second phase of discussions takes on issues such as postwar governance in Gaza, as debates continued about Hamas’s failure to return all the bodies of dead hostages.
What Donald Trump gets right in the Middle East: It’s not what you think. Economist
Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan in talks to provide troops for Gaza stabilization force: Politico reports negotiations on the makeup of the force, a key part of Trump’s 20-point-plan, are ongoing.
Britain’s Labour Party has no more safe seats: A by-election in Wales reveals Labour’s vulnerability. Economist
Canada threatens Stellantis with legal action over Jeep move to US: The company could default on agreements made to keep a factory footprint in Ontario, said Industry Minister Melanie Joly. WSJ
In nod to Trump, automaker Stellantis shifts production from Canada to the US: Canadian leaders blame the move by Stellantis to abandon production in Ontario on President Trump’s tariffs. Mr. Trump says he wants to increase production in the United States. NYT
Bailout for Argentina will hit $40 billion, Bessent says: WP reports the Trump administration is working to arrange private-sector financing that would double the total US financial lifeline for the embattled nation.
Bessent says US considers doubling aid to Argentina by tapping outside funding: Politico reports the assistance is aimed at bolstering the country's collapsing currency and calming economic unrest before Oct. 26 midterm elections.
US arranging $20 billion private finance facility for Argentina: WSJ reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a ”private-sector solution” was in the works as the US looks to expand a lifeline for ally Javier Milei.
Trump offered a helping hand to Argentina. It backfired. When President Javier Milei of Argentina faced an economic meltdown, President Trump vowed to come to his aid. But that lifeline is coming at a cost. NYT
Trump’s gamble on Argentina: The US administration is backing an ally’s misguided exchange rate policy. FT-Editorial
Bloomberg: Trump confirms report that he authorized CIA action in Venezuela
Trump administration authorizes covert CIA action in Venezuela: NYT reports the development comes as the US military is drawing up options for President Trump to consider, including possible strikes inside the country.
Trump says US 'certainly' considering strikes on land against Venezuela cartels: Le Monde reports the US has carried out a series of deadly strikes against alleged drug-carrying boats, most recently on Tuesday, killing six 'narcoterrorists,' according to Trump, who declined to confirm a New York Times report that he had secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert action in Venezuela against the administration of President Nicolás Maduro.
Reuters: Shutdown is costing US economy $15 billion a day, Bessent says
Judge orders Trump administration to pause shutdown layoffs: WP reports unions for federal workers argued that the dismissals were improperly handled, politically motivated, and illegal.
Trump invites ballroom donors to glitzy White House dinner: WSJ reports the event set to include representatives from Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Palantir.
Vance downplays group chat messages: ‘Kids do stupid things, especially young boys.’: Politico reports the vice president called the texts "edgy, offensive jokes."
Pete Hegseth’s jet forced to land in Suffolk after distress call: The Times reports the American secretary of war was returning from a meeting in Belgium when a crack in the Boeing’s windscreen caused depressurisation.
US approves new bank backed by billionaires with ties to Donald Trump: FT reports target market for Erebor will be businesses that are part of America’s ‘innovation economy.’
Anthropic’s AI principles make it a White House target Dave Lee
+ White House AI "czar" David Sacks accused Anthropic of running a "sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear-mongering" that is damaging the startup ecosystem.
+ Anthropic's co-founder Jack Clark found Sacks' attack "perplexing" and said the company is "extremely lined up" with the administration in many areas, but has a different view in some areas.
+ Anthropic's support for California Senate Bill 53, which imposes transparency rules and whistleblower protections around AI development, may have been a catalyst for Sacks' outburst, according to Clark.
BHP considers reopening defunct US copper mines in response to Trump: FT reports chief executive Mike Henry says company is looking at restarting operations in Arizona.
Brown University rejects White House deal for special treatment: NYT reports Brown was the second university to turn down the deal, which would have given a funding preference to universities that agreed to certain requirements.
Gaza deal is a big win for Trump—but voters are fickle: He has secured a place in history, but the midterm elections are another matter. Karl Rove
Mamdani directly addresses Trump via Fox News appearance Nia Prater
Bill Ackman donates $1mn to oppose Zohran Mamdani’s NY mayoral campaign: FT reports hedge fund billionaire in last-ditch effort to stop democratic socialist frontrunner in race for city hall.
Millions of dollars are pouring into NYC's mayoral race: The campaign between Mamdani and Cuomo is playing out with big-dollar PAC donations. Here's who's giving. Bloomberg
NJ-GOV: Heading into the final weeks of the New Jersey gubernatorial race, a new Quinnipiac poll finds Mikie Sherrill (D) with a slight lead over Jack Ciattarelli (R), 50% to 44%.
The nation’s biggest banks are saying the economy is still strong: WSJ reports a boom in dealmaking and higher spending point to a healthy economy, while bears are watching frothy stock prices and a weakening job market.
Three exaggerations about the US economy right now Bloomberg
+ The idea that artificial intelligence is driving a surge in US GDP growth has uncertainty, as a significant portion of AI investment was imported, affecting the GDP math.
+ The notion that AI is weakening the labor market has evidence that is not uniform, and other factors may be contributing to the recent labor market slowdown.
+ The narrative of a K-shaped expansion in the US, where higher-income consumers drive most of the economic growth, is complicated by data showing that lower-income households have accounted for a higher share of consumer spending and have seen wage growth.
Bloomberg: Big banks warn of AI froth as bubble talk dominates earnings
+ Wall Street executives cautioned of over-exuberance in the AI industry as banks posted a record-breaking quarter for deal activity and trading revenue.
+ Executives sounded a note of caution, with Citigroup Inc.'s Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason saying some sectors are "likely frothy and overvalued" and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon alluding to the dot-com bubble.
+ Some finance executives adopted a more optimistic tone, with Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya saying "we are really just scratching the surface of what" AI technology can do.
A giant new AI data center is coming to the epicenter of America’s fracking boom: WSJ reports CoreWeave and Poolside announced a partnership for a data center built on a sprawling ranch in West Texas.
BlackRock’s AI consortium to buy Aligned data centers in $20 billion deal: WSJ reports the companies say the transaction ranks among the biggest data-center deals ever.
Apple upgrades Vision Pro headset as competition heats up: WP reports the company’s $3,499 headset just got a silicon brain transplant and longer battery life, the company said.
Smucker’s sued Trader Joe’s over an Uncrustables dupe. How similar are they? We tasted the freezer-aisle crustless peanut butter and jelly sandwiches head-to-head. WP
Bloomberg: United sees resilient demand as premium travel drives profit
How the battle over leaf blowers became a front in US culture wars: Advances in battery technology could make complaints about noisy devices a thing of the past. Gregory Meyer
A billionaire has rebuilt downtown Detroit: But is Dan Gilbert’s project finally running out of steam? Economist
Why was the president of FIFA at the Gaza summit? Gianni Infantino, the head of soccer’s global governing body, frequently appears alongside President Trump at events outside the realm of sports. NYT
Athletic: President Trump once again suggests relocating World Cup matches
Trinity Rodman was ‘in pain all the time.’ She’s finally back with the USWNT. US Coach Emma Hayes named a 26-player squad for two friendlies against Portugal and a third vs. New Zealand. WP
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
A11. | October 16
