ITK Daily | February 13
Chaos, TikTok, Waymo, Jon Stewart, Super Bowl, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
How the world economy learned to love chaos: War, high interest rates, and financial strife are yet to bring down growth. Economist
An outburst by Trump on NATO may push Europe to go it alone: NYT reports many were alarmed by comments that he would “encourage” Russia to attack US allies that didn’t pay into NATO, but European leaders were already pondering the prospect of an alliance without the United States.
Trump’s NATO-bashing comments rile allies, rekindle European fears: WP reports but some officials question the veracity of Trump’s claim that he threatened to encourage Russian attacks on allies who failed to pay bills.
Europe can no longer count on America’s security umbrella: Trump is undermining its safety and the continent must respond. FT - Editorial
Bloomberg: US proceeds with $23 billion warplane, missile sale to Turkey
+ Sale reinforces Turkey’s defense at unsettled time in region
+ But strains remain over Turkey’s use of Russian air defenses
Biden and Jordanian king warn about planned Israeli invasion of Rafah: WP reports the president appeared alongside an Arab leader at the White House for the first time since the Israel-Gaza war began.
CIA and Mossad chiefs to hold talks on Hamas hostage deal: FT reports Biden presses for ceasefire and warns Israel not to attack Rafah without protecting civilians.
Biden sends CIA chief to Cairo for cease-fire talks: NYT reports President Biden said the US was working on a deal between Israel and Hamas for a pause in fighting of at least six weeks.
Only Biden and MBS can redirect the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Thomas L. Friedman
In Trump-Biden rematch, the only sure loser Is China: Trump vows massive tariffs that could shrink US-China trade to practically nothing — and Biden has new restrictions ready to roll before election day. Bloomberg
Chinese-backed solar factory stirs suspicions in rural Ohio: Local opponents raise fears over Beijing’s influence as US aims to reshore supply chain. FT
+ Illuminate USA’s 1mn sq ft solar panel factory in Pataskala, Ohio will employ more than 1,000
Xi Jinping’s paranoia is making China isolated and insular: Economist reports from his personal travel plans to capital flows, cross-border exchange is shrinking.
China airbrushed away its foreign minister. Why? David Ignatius
Putin seeks revenge on a world order he once wanted to join: The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage. Bloomberg
Migration, Russia challenge global security: A survey for the 2024 Munich Security Conference shows people fearing climate-change-driven migration ahead of the threat from Russia. However, they are also worried about cyberattacks and the impact of AI. DW
Economist: France uncovers a vast Russian disinformation campaign in Europe
+ “Portal Kombat” also targets Germany and Poland
France votes: France’s far-right is projected to get the best-ever result in the upcoming European Parliament election, according to a poll from consultancy firm Portland Communications.
+ Far-right parties are expected to make sizeable gains everywhere except for in Poland, where Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition is forecast to receive 35 percent of the vote.
The debut UK AI Opportunity Forum takes place at No. 10 with Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan joined by representatives of companies including Google, Microsoft, and Vodafone to discuss AI adaptation.
Bloomberg: OpenAI’s Altman sees UAE as world’s AI regulatory testing ground
+ Altman calls for ‘contained’ experiments before regulation
+ He says Mideast country could lead talks on global AI rules
AI is too important to be monopolised: Public investments are essential to levelling the computational playing field. Marietje Schaake
+ The writer is international policy director at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy Center and special adviser to the European Commission
Bloomberg: India plans $9 billion rooftop solar push as key elections loom
+ Expanding rooftop solar can help speed up energy transition
+ Government to give subsidies to reduce cost burden, Modi says
From banned general to dancing grandpa: How Prabowo became favourite to lead Indonesia: Support from popular president Joko Widodo has lifted the 72-year-old once barred from the US over human rights concerns. FT
A ‘democracy party’ like no other: One of the world’s biggest elections: The celebration of the act of casting a vote has particular resonance in Indonesia, which until a few decades ago was a brutal dictatorship. NYT
Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida seeks summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un: FT reports Tokyo hopes diplomatic breakthrough will boost premier’s domestic popularity.
Population - Nigeria v Japan:
2000
Nigeria: 122 million
Japan: 126 million
2022
Nigeria: 218.5 million
Japan: 123.9 million
US gas producers are racing to sell to Asia. And Mexico is key. By next year, American natural gas will start flowing across Mexico to a major export terminal on the Pacific, reflecting a global energy landscape transformed by US dominance in gas. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
US Senate approves $95bn bill with aid to Ukraine: FT reports national security funding proposal risks languishing in House of Representatives because of Donald Trump’s opposition.
Senate passes bill for Ukraine aid, but fate is uncertain in a hostile House: NYT reports Democrats and some Republicans teamed up to approve the $95 billion bill, which also includes aid to Israel, but the House speaker threatened to ignore it.
Today: Special election in NY-03
Two cases. Two judges. One high-stakes week for Trump. NYT reports Donald Trump faces a ruling in a civil fraud case that could drain his cash coffers. He may also receive a court date for what would be the first criminal trial of a former US president.
Trump asks Supreme Court to keep Jan. 6 trial on hold, citing 2024 election: WP reports in a filing on Monday, Donald Trump’s lawyer said putting him on trial during the 2024 election season would “radically disrupt” his effort to win another term in the White House.
+ A new CBS News/YouGov poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump way ahead of Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primary, 65% to 30%.
Trump is considering backing his daughter-in-law for RNC co-chair: NYT reports Lara Trump, who is married to the former president’s son Eric, has worked closely with the Republican National Committee for several years
Kamala Harris says she is ready to serve as Biden faces age scrutiny: In a recent interview, the vice president cites her ‘capacity to lead’ after stops on her abortion-rights tour. WSJ
The Biden campaign launched a TikTok account.
+ The move comes about a year after the Biden White House demanded federal agencies remove the app from federal government devices.
+ @HawleyMO: Biden campaign bragging about using a Chinese spy app even though Biden signed a law banning it on all federal devices
Politico: RFK Jr.’s super PAC runs a $7M ad during the Super Bowl
+ The spot wasn’t an homage to a 1960s JFK ad, it was the same version, just updated.
+ @RobertKennedyJr: I'm so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain. The ad was created and aired by the American Values Super PAC without any involvement or approval from my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you.
Welcome to Silicon Desert: How Biden helped boost an Arizona boomtown: Computer-chip manufacturers are building giant factories in Phoenix, helping draw more blue voters to this vital swing county. WP
Trump dreamt of a ‘Huawei killer.’ Biden is trying to unleash it. The Biden administration has committed more than $1.5 billion to try to persuade the world to use a technology that might allow American businesses back into the telecommunications equipment race. WP
Biden national security aide John Kirby gets expanded role: Reuters reports Kirby will have a new title - White House national security communications adviser - and will be elevated to an assistant to the president from deputy assistant.
The once and future Democratic Party: California’s Senate race is a fork in the road for liberals. Has the decision been made for them? Rebecca Traister
Crypto PAC jumps into Senate race, opposing Katie Porter in California: NYT reports a group called Fairshake recently revealed that it and two affiliated super PACs had amassed roughly $80 million combined in 2023. Now it’s planning to deploy some of that cash.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
AI frenzy puts Nvidia briefly ahead of Amazon in market value: Reuters reports Nvidia briefly surpassed Amazon.com Inc in market capitalization on Monday, as the euphoria around artificial intelligence catapulted the chipmaker to the fourth most valuable US company.
Generative AI and the future of work in America McKinsey
Why AI may be your best strategist Chicago Booth Review
+ Members of Gen Z —"Zoomers" — are more likely to want to learn AI skills than Boomers (1.6x) or Gen X (1.1x), according to LinkedIn research provided to Axios.
+ 57% of Gen Z respondents and 62% of millennials said they were more excited about the potential benefits of AI than they were worried about the risks, per Axios.
AI is starting to threaten white-collar jobs: Jobs up and down the corporate food chain have been cut in the most recent cascade of layoffs. Leaders say the fast-evolving technology means many may never return. WSJ
AI is driving more layoffs than companies want to admit: By one tracker, US firms have announced 4,600 job cuts since May related to artificial intelligence. Bloomberg
Here’s the thing AI just can’t do: Google says its powerful new chatbot Gemini can supercharge your creativity. But who is really providing the creative spark? Wired
Meet the pranksters behind Goody-2, the world’s ‘most responsible’ AI chatbot: Self-righteous chatbot Goody-2 was built to take AI guardrails to an illogical extreme. The artists behind the project say there’s a serious point behind the gag. Wired
How the world of recycling is about to be transformed: The world’s biggest builder of recycling plants says it will retrofit thousands of waste plants with AI tools to better sort recycling. WP
Robot invasion hit a bump in 2023 as North American economy cooled: Reuters reports North American companies ordered about a third fewer robots last year as worries about a slowing economy and higher interest rates made it harder to justify buying the advanced machines, the first hiccup in five years in what has been a steady progression of the robot invasion of the region's workforce.
Apple’s new face computer is for work: Forget ‘spatial computing.’ The killer apps for Apple’s new Vision Pro will be the same ones we already use every day. Christopher Mims
As electric vehicle demand slows, workers caught in the middle face an uncertain future: NBC News reports thousands of workers face layoffs or transfers as automakers scale back on their lofty EV ambitions.
A crowd destroyed a driverless Waymo car in San Francisco: The Verge reports no one was in Waymo’s driverless taxi as it was surrounded and set on fire in San Francisco’s Chinatown.
Permian rivals reach deal to create $50 billion oil-and-gas behemoth: WSJ reports Diamondback Energy and Autry Stephens’s Endeavor announce merger as torrid dealmaking continues in the oil patch.
Bitcoin jumped to $50,000 for the first time in more than two years.
Bloomberg: Cotton demand from US textile mills drops to lowest since 1885
+ US mills to process 1.74 million cotton bales this year: USDA
+ Forecast shows mill use falling nearly 15% from last year
Bloomberg: Temu spent millions on six Super Bowl ads as it tries to win back US shoppers
*** Culture ***
‘Now where was I?’ Jon Stewart is back in his old ‘Daily Show’ seat: On Monday night, the longtime host of the Comedy Central news satire kicked off his new tenure in classic form. NYT
*** Sport ***
The NFL will make its regular-season debut in Spain in 2025, playing a game at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, home of Real Madrid.
Fake grass, real injuries? Dissecting the NFL’s artificial turf debate: Artificial turf has its advantages, but the NFLPA wants it banished from the NFL. ARS Tech
Tiger Woods unveils new apparel line called ‘Sun Day Red’: WSJ reports the golf legend, whose longtime relationship with Nike ended last month, will partner with TaylorMade on the new clothing brand.
FT: Super Bowl most watched US broadcast since Apollo moon landing
+ Broadcast defies slide in TV audiences to draw record 123mn viewers
Odds to win Super Bowl LVIX in New Orleans: The San Francisco 49ers are Super Bowl favorites at +500 on BetMGM, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (+700 to repeat). The Baltimore Ravens (+850), Buffalo Bills (+1200), and Detroit Lions (+1200) have the next-best odds.
The decline and fall of the all-star game Eve Peyser
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
ITK Daily | February 13
