ITK Daily | February 16
Vice President Kamala Harris, Anna Wintour, Wawa, Rod Stewart, Caitlin Clark, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Ross Rant ***
Communications and the 60th Munich Security Conference
This weekend, the historic Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich will again host many of the world's leading security policymakers, diplomats, and thought leaders for the 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC).
From February 16 - 18, 2024, the MSC will be the platform for high-level discussions on the most pressing global security challenges, marking a significant milestone in its six-decade history.
Key global business issues likely to dominate discussions at the MSC:
The Ukraine War + Moscow's imperial ambitions
China's growing militarization + Beijing trying to convert East Asia into its exclusive sphere of influence
Escalation of violence, terrorist attacks + the humanitarian emergency in the Middle East
Losing the chance for peace + democratic progress in the Sahel
Geopolitical tensions transforming globalization + the rise of "de-risking" economic relationships
Climate policy + the rollout of green technologies
Geopolitical tensions fragmenting the tech sector + much-needed global regulations on AI and data security
Full post - click here.
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Bloomberg: Israel, Hezbollah strikes intensify as fears grow of new front
+ Tensions running high as rockets hit deep into Israel’s north
+ US has been trying to mediate between Lebanon, Israel
Biden-Netanyahu relationship at boiling point as Rafah invasion looms: WSJ reports the US administration acknowledges waning influence over its closest Middle East ally
Egypt builds walled enclosure as Israeli offensive looms: WSJ reports authorities are surrounding a border area in the desert with concrete walls as a contingency for a possible influx of Palestinian refugees.
AP: On the USS Eisenhower, 4 months of combat at sea facing Houthi missiles and a new sea threat
AP: US to confront Trump-driven political turmoil at the Munich Security Conference
In Munich, Harris aims to reassure European allies as Trump disparages NATO: Vice President Kamala Harris will argue that global partnerships are critical to US security, not a burden to be lightly discarded, officials said. WSJ
AFP: Ukraine's Zelensky to sign security pacts with Germany and France
Do we want to pay the price for a Russian victory in Ukraine? There is a critical need to back Kyiv in its fight against Vladimir Putin's hybrid war on Europe, cautioning that the efforts needed now are minor compared to those needed to oppose a victorious Russia. Stéphane Séjourné
Russia said to be using thousands of Musk’s Starlink systems in war: WSJ reports the comments from Ukraine’s top military-intelligence officer suggest Russia is starting to acquire Starlink terminals at a scale that could cut into a major Ukrainian battlefield advantage.
Is NATO ready for a Russian invasion? Max Jeffery
War in space is no longer science fiction: Inside America’s celestial struggle against China and Russia. Economist
Intelligence about Russia puts focus on new US satellite push: The Pentagon is in the early stages of a program to put constellations of smaller and cheaper satellites into orbit to counter space-based threats of the sort being developed by Russia and China. NYT
Japan unexpectedly slipped into recession after shrinking for a second quarter due to anemic domestic demand.
The row over US Steel shows the new meaning of national security: Should a Japanese buyer really be blocked from acquiring the American firm? Economist
https://www.economist.com/business/2024/02/15/the-row-over-us-steel-shows-the-new-meaning-of-national-security
China revives socialist ideas to fix its real-estate crisis: WSJ reports Xi Jinping aims to put the state back in charge of the crumbling property market, part of a push to rein in the private sector.
Mongolia + the United Arab Emirates signed a memo today agreeing to cooperate on AI development and governance.
+ The UAE additionally signed AI agreements with Austria and Colombia.
The Global South needs a leader. Indonesia should apply: The country’s new president has a chance to rally developing nations behind a global minerals policy acceptable to both the West and China. Mihir Sharma
David Cameron won’t ‘lecture’ US on Ukraine … after Trump ally tells him to ‘kiss my ass’: Politico reports the UK foreign secretary sought to calm tensions after Marjorie Taylor Greene attacked him over Ukraine funding.
The UK also slipped into recession last year.
+ Labour seized on the recession news in hope of a political win.
Greece becomes first Orthodox country to legalize same-sex marriage and adoption: AFP reports Greece's parliament on Thursday overwhelmingly adopted a bill legalizing same-sex marriage and adoption in a landmark reform promoted by the conservative government despite opposition from the powerful Orthodox Church.
Africa wants to attract more Chinese tourists: 'The potential is enormous, we need to be prepared': Le Monde reports South Africa, Kenya, and Tanzania are multiplying their strategies aimed at China, whose travelers rarely venture onto the continent.
Bloomberg: Nigeria's currency crisis is fueling a corporate exodus
+ A currency in free-fall and rampant inflation are slashing the profits of global conglomerates
+ At least three global conglomerates have announced they are exiting the nation, Africa’s most populous and its second biggest economy. GSK, Bayer and Sanofi are joining Procter & Gamble in departing
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Democrats look to Nebraska to shore up Biden’s blue wall: Population shifts since 2020 have decreased the power of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to guarantee Democratic victory. WP
The moneyball theory of presidential social media: Not even the president can bend the internet to his will. Charlie Warzel
Anna Wintour to host Biden fundraiser during Paris Fashion Week: BOF reports Wintour will host the fundraiser with Rufus Gifford, the finance chair for the Biden-Harris 2024 presidential campaign, on March 4.
Trump world considers having the former president deliver the official GOP State of the Union response: Two sources told NBC News that Trump is leaning against doing it. The decision ultimately rests with the Republican leadership in Congress.
+ The first of four criminal trials for Donald Trump begins March 25.
Joe Manchin floats Mitt Romney as a potential running mate as he weighs a presidential bid: NBC News reports Manchin made the comment Thursday in Cleveland, the latest stop on his "listening tour" as the West Virginia senator ponders a third-party White House campaign.
AP: Republican businessman Hovde to enter Wisconsin US Senate race against Baldwin
Nobody knows which political ads work and why: A study of more than 600 political ads found there’s no way to predict what makes one effective. Politico
BlooITK Daily | February 20
Europe, Anti-Trump, Costco, Oppenheimer, LeBron James, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Reuters: Goldman raises global equities to 'overweight' on economic growth prospects
Israel expects to continue full-scale military operations in Gaza for at least another six weeks, according to Israeli officials.
Israel has gone beyond self-defence, says Labour: The Times reports Wes Streeting condemns planned invasion of Rafah refugee city and signals backing for SNP ceasefire motion.
Bloomberg: Israel’s economy contracts nearly 20% after outbreak of war
Navalny’s body found bruised in Arctic morgue: The Telegraph reports injuries found on opposition leader's head and chest when his body was brought to local hospital, but no autopsy has yet been performed.
WP: As morgue refuses to release Navalny’s body, wife says she will lead fight against Putin
Le Monde: Stunned by Navalny's death, Europeans show their unity and fear of Russia
Bloomberg: Navalny's widow meets EU as bloc considers new Russia sanctions
+ Yulia Navalnaya addresses EU foreign ministers in Brussels
+ Russia says investigation ongoing into Navalny’s death in jail
Reuters: More than 400 detained in Russia at events in memory of Navalny, rights group says
Putin is winning — and flaunting it Jonah Shepp
The Kremlin has never been richer – thanks to a US strategic partner: CNN reports Russia is entering its third year of war in Ukraine with an unprecedented amount of cash in government coffers, bolstered by a record $37 billion of crude oil sales to India last year, according to new analysis, which concludes that some of the crude was refined by India and then exported to the United States as oil products worth more than $1 billion.
The secret oil-trading ring that funds Russia’s war: WSJ reports a little-known trader from Azerbaijan assembled a clandestine network that moves vast quantities of petroleum to China, India, and other new markets.
Ukrainian businesses fear new mobilisation law could paralyse economy: Reuters reports Ukraine's leading business associations are calling for changes to be made to draft legislation that would overhaul the process for mobilising troops, saying the reforms could deal a blow to the already embattled economy.
‘There’s only Plan A': Defense leaders fear failure in Ukraine: Attendees of the Munich Security Conference were worried about Ukraine’s prospects against Russia and the American commitment to Kyiv. Politico
Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles: NBC News reports if Republicans continue to block US military aid to Ukraine, the White House could turn to an ally to provide Kyiv with ATACM missiles capable of striking Russian-held Crimea.
Bloomberg: Ukraine’s allies are gaming out a world in which the US retreats
+ Leaders, defense officials met at Munich security conference
+ Stalled US aid to Ukraine added to the meeting’s pessimism
TJT: As war fatigue grows, Japan pledges long-term support to Ukraine
The EU will open an office of defense innovation in Kyiv later this year, von der Leyen also announced at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
Hungary snubs US Senators pushing for Sweden’s entry into NATO: NYT reports officials in Budapest declined to meet with a bipartisan group of American lawmakers who favor expanding the military alliance.
Can Europe defend itself without America? It would need to replace military aid, a nuclear umbrella, and leadership. Economist
Europe must ask: What if Biden wins in November? Traditional allies of the US are pondering a response to Trump 2.0, but they need a plan for a Democratic election victory as well. Rana Foroohar
Ursula von der Leyen seeks second term as EU Commission president: Le Monde reports Von der Leyen, 65, announced her candidacy after being 'unanimously' chosen by her CDU party, and if she retained the position she would face challenges to her support for the European Green Deal, aid to Ukraine, and Israel in its war efforts in Gaza.
Germany’s Scholz wants European allies to up defense spending: Politico reports Germany is Europe’s leading aid donor to Ukraine, and Berlin wants other countries to catch up.
Reuters: Germany likely in recession, Bundesbank says
Bloomberg: Macron bid to revamp French economy falters as growth slows
+ Finance minister cuts 2024 GDP forecast to 1% from 1.4%
+ Bruno Le Maire blames geopolitical context for reduction
Le Monde: Macron aims to convince he's not 'pursuing a far-right policy' in interview to Communist newspaper
What did David Cameron expect when he lectured the Americans? Sam Leith
Bloomberg: Japan PM Kishida’s disapproval rate hits record as scandals drag on
+ Most voters unhappy with explanations of slush fund scandal
+ Unexpected recession could add further to Kishida’s woes
The University of Tokyo plans to launch a new five-year combined Bachelor's and Master's degree program in fall 2027, with half of the roughly 100-student capacity to comprise foreign students, a university source said Monday.
Kim Jong-un’s sister hints at summit between Japan and North Korea: The Times reports Kim Yo-jong raised hopes of first meeting between leaders of the two countries for 20 years.
Aboard a US aircraft carrier, a front-row seat to China tensions: Both nations stage naval exercises in the Philippine Sea, east of Taiwan—a vital region that would be prized in any East Asia conflict. WSJ
The US needs a better strategic narrative or it will cede influence to China: Department of Defense experts complain it is easier to drop a bomb than get approval to launch ‘information fire.’ Mike Studeman
Bloomberg: China vows to centralize tech development under Communist Party
+ Xi’s party will take more direct role in steering
development
+ Tech leadership is a major priority for China’s government
Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year low: Nikkei reports companies are spooked by detentions for alleged spying and U.S. sanctions.
Foreign direct investment in China falls to lowest level in decades: FT reports the world’s second-largest economy struggles to recover as investors seek higher yields.
Bloomberg: China’s premier urges ‘forceful’ action to boost confidence
+ Li Qiang tells cabinet meeting he wants real achievements
+ Slow economic recovery has led to recent slide by stocks
Bloomberg: China stocks’ insipid reopen adds pressure on Beijing to do more
+ A number of ETFs tracking onshore shares saw turnover spike
+ Chinese stocks in the US, HK rose while mainland was shut
US says it will act if China dumps goods on global markets: FT reports Western governments fear Beijing may try to ease domestic overcapacity with cheap exports.
How China stifles dissent without a KGB or Stasi of its own: A secret policeman on every street. Economist
‘Strings attached’: Saudi Arabia steps up demands in tech deals with China: Alibaba and SenseTime secure huge joint ventures in Gulf kingdom but agreements come with stringent requirements. FT
Indonesia’s single-day election, the worlds largest, resulted in the deaths of 71 election workers from exhaustion. Some 4,000 more fell ill after completing their duties.
Bloomberg: Guyana president urges ‘immediate’ development of gas resources
+ President Irfaan Ali says Guyana must monetize natural gas
+ Exxon currently only produces oil from its Guyana fields
Mexico: Thousands march against electoral reform proposal: DW reports protesters are accusing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of undermining democracy in attempting to reform the country's electoral authority ahead of a June election.
Jake Sullivan’s revolution: Globalization and free markets had time to prove themselves. Now, a new “Bidenism” is emerging. Politico
Who’s really behind the Biden administration’s foreign policy? Alexander Ward’s carefully researched new account argues Biden is POTUS in name only. David J. Garrow
*** US Politics + Elections ***
CNN: High-profile Republicans head for the exits amid House GOP dysfunction
Poll ranks Biden as 14th-best President, with Trump last: NYT reports President Biden may owe his place in the top third to his predecessor: Mr. Biden’s signature accomplishment, according to the historians, was evicting Donald J. Trump from the Oval Office.
Too old? Biden world thinks pundits just don’t get Joe. The president’s friends and aides play media critic amid a political mess. Gabriel Debenedetti
How foreign policy will impact the 2024 election: Biden’s decision-making is making America weaker on the world stage. But would a second Trump term be all that much better? The Spectator
'Biden's most serious opponent isn't Trump, but the fact that his own camp could lose faith: By seeking another term as president despite growing concern about his health, the 81-year-old incumbent has chosen to take a considerable risk: a potential victory for Donald Trump. Piotr Smolar
Anti-Trump burnout: The resistance says it’s exhausted: Bracing for yet another election against Donald Trump, America’s liberals are feeling the fatigue. “We’re kind of, like, crises-ed out,” one Democrat said. NYT
Reuters: US to soften tailpipe rules, slow EV transition through 2030
Biden administration is said to slow early stage of shift to electric cars: The change to planned rules was an election-year concession to labor unions and auto executives, according to people familiar with the plan. NYT
Tech companies sign accord to combat AI-generated election trickery AP
+ Executives from Adobe, Amazon, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and TikTok gathered at the Munich Security Conference to announce a new framework for how they respond to AI-generated deepfakes that deliberately trick voters. Twelve other companies — including Elon Musk’s X — are also signing on to the accord.
+ "Everybody recognizes that no one tech company, no one government, no one civil society organization is able to deal with the advent of this technology and its possible nefarious use on their own," said Nick Clegg, president of global affairs for Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, in an interview ahead of the summit
Could AI ruin the election? The detection systems to separate real footage from AI-generated are completely losing the arms race. The Spectator
How judges, not politicians, could dictate America’s AI rules: With politicians struggling to curb AI harms, it’s boom time for tech lawyers. Melissa Heikkilä
New York City is suing TikTok and Instagram for ‘addicting’ children: The Verge reports it adds to a growing wave of litigation from state and local governments alleging harmful design features.
The power broke her: The rise and (maybe) fall of Lina Khan. Adam J. White
Can the SEC’s landmark reforms survive a Wall Street fightback? The US securities watchdog is proposing major rule changes in several sectors but market participants are challenging its plans in the courts. FT
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Stellantis is considering building up to 150,000 low-cost electric vehicles (EVs) in Italy, in its Mirafiori complex in Turin, as part of its agreements with Chinese automaker Leapmotor, Automotive News Europe said on Monday.
Forvia SE is poised to cut roughly 13% of its European workforce over the next five years with plans to tap artificial intelligence to better compete with Asian rivals in the shift to electric cars.
French car parts supplier Forvia to cut 10,000 jobs to tackle Chinese competition: FT reports the dashboard and seat maker aims to reduce workforce of 75,000 over five years to boost margins.
The boom in battery metals for EVs is turning to bust: WSJ reports producers of lithium and nickel have paused projects after prices collapsed, and as momentum slows for electric-vehicle sales.
Why the world’s mining companies are so stingy: The energy transition requires vast quantities of metals. But miners are reluctant to invest. Economist
Geologists signal start of hydrogen energy ‘gold rush’: FT reports natural sources of the gas are more abundant than expected and could supply energy needs for centuries, study shows.
Reuters: EU opens formal investigation into TikTok over possible online content breaches
EU to hit Apple with first ever fine in €500mn music streaming penalty: FT the move is culmination of long-running European Commission antitrust probe after a complaint by Spotify.
Tech leaders who fled San Francisco are coming back: WSJ reports founders and investors who ditched the Bay Area for Miami and elsewhere are returning to a boom in artificial intelligence and an abundance of talent.
US to give $1.5 billion for computer-chip plant, heating up global race: The massive grant, part of the Chips Act, will help the US establish a homegrown supply for some of the most critical components of modern life. WP
Reuters: US awards $1.5 bln to GlobalFoundries for domestic semiconductor production
Arizona, the 'Silicon Desert' boosted by the semiconductor war: Around Phoenix, giants like TSMC and Intel are investing billions of dollars setting up a huge industrial chip ecosystem. They are being spurred on by the federal government, which no longer wants to depend on Asia in this vital tech sector. Le Monde
Plans to expand US chip manufacturing are running into obstacles: Delays in finishing new factories are emerging, just as the Biden administration begins handing out money to stoke domestic production. NYT
How Silicon Valley learned to love America, drones, and glory: After a decade of building the future, tech’s new guard is going back to the American past -- spurring a funding frenzy in defense technology. WP
A venture capitalist’s view of AI: Where the money is: Hemant Taneja of General Catalyst says his focus is on AI’s role in transforming industries and business functions. WSJ
Google, Microsoft will dominate AI as computing costs surge: Start-up firms in artificial intelligence can’t afford to keep the lights on. Parmy Olson
AI mania is cooling as Silicon Valley plays the long game: Widespread corporate adoption of the new technology may take years, business leaders say. Kathryn Parsons
After a slow start, AI is trying to get to grips with African languages: Researchers and entrepreneurs on the continent are working to promote languages that are now under threat of digital death. Le Monde
Air Canada chatbot promised a discount. Now the airline has to pay it. Air Canada argued the chatbot was a separate legal entity ‘responsible for its own actions,’ a Canadian tribunal said. WP
Beware the top Google search result. It might be wrong. How to spot AI-generated content, bogus featured text ‘snippets’ and misleading ads. WSJ
When AI can make a movie, what does “video” even mean? Sora, the new text-to-video system from OpenAI, doesn’t make recordings—it renders ideas. New Yorker
OpenAI is close-mouthed about Sora’s video secrets: What’s the incentive for big companies to look out for the public interest? Tobin Harshaw
A psychiatrist tried to quit gambling. Betting apps kept her hooked. While Kavita Fischer sank deeper into six-figure losses, companies kept her going with bonus credits, VIP treatment, and data tracking. WSJ
Tinder, Hinge ‘deliberately’ turn users into swiping addicts, lawsuit says WP
Bloomberg: Disney-Fox-Warner streaming deal faces DOJ antitrust review
+ Concerns likely focused on pricing, sports league negotiations
+ Antitrust enforcers have blocked cable bundles in past cases
How Paramount became a cautionary tale of the streaming wars: Shari Redstone inherited her father’s storied media empire and tried to take on Netflix. Now it’s looking for a buyer. Bloomberg
Why Costco is so loved: Keeping customers, employees, and investors happy is no mean feat. Economist
*** Culture ***
AFP: Oppenheimer dominates BAFTAs in major Oscars boost
*** Sport ***
GM's plan to join the Formula One race series had 1 thing wrong that Ford got right Mark Phelan
The insatiable ambition of LeBron James: The basketball legend is building a business that includes movies and TV, advertising and a grooming line. It’s all part of a new model for how athletes can cash in on their fame. WSJ
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
ITK Daily | February 20
