ITK Daily | March 12
Wheat, Team Biden, Liquid Death, Banksy, Chicago Bears, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
CNA: Ramadan brings no relief as Israel-Hamas war rages in Gaza
Israel launches new round of air strikes against Hizbollah targets: FT reports the Israeli military hits locations deep inside Lebanon for second time in two weeks.
Politico: If Israel invades Rafah, Biden will consider conditioning military aid to Israel
+ The US will “continue to work hard at” negotiating a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, CIA director Bill Burns said after returning from another round of meetings in the Middle East.
US spy agencies say Netanyahu’s leadership ‘in jeopardy’: WSJ reports the annual threat assessment also questions Israel’s ability to eliminate Hamas.
Gaza war may stoke ‘generational’ terrorism threat, top intel official says: WP reports senior US intelligence officials testified before Congress about two wars, a rising China and the threat of artificial intelligence to US national security.
Bloomberg: Momentum shifts toward Russia in Ukraine war, US spies warn
+ Intelligence agencies say Hamas may resist Israel for years
+ China is described as an ‘ambitious but anxious’ adversary
Ukraine is catching up with Russia in aerial warfare: BBC reports pursued relentlessly since the start of the Russian invasion and outnumbered 10 to one, Ukrainian air forces have managed to inflict severe losses on Russian aviation.
Brussels aims to fast track up to €3bn for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets: FT reports the first tranche of profits from Euroclear could be available as soon as July, if EU capitals approve.
Sweden and Finland join NATO's biggest military exercise in decades: BBC reports there was a time when NATO would do its best to avoid direct mention of Russia when conducting its military manoeuvres. Not least for fear of provocation. But Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine has changed all that.
‘A 1939 moment’: Jim Sciutto on Russia, China and the threat of war: The CNN analyst’s new book considers threats outside the US, in Ukraine and Taiwan, and within, as Biden battles Trump. Guardian
China has never canceled this many shipments of US wheat: The nation has called off another batch, adding to an already record number of cancellations that have weighed on Chicago futures.
Bloomberg: US will ‘do whatever it takes’ to curb China tech, Raimondo says
+ US could tighten controls on chip exports to China: Raimondo
+ Her comments signal US’s sanctions push could intensify
AP: US is constantly assessing expansion of chip export controls that can boost China’s military
The AI arms race between the US and China is heating up: Yahoo reports the two world superpowers are competing with each other for everything from the intellectual know-how to design AI hardware and software to the raw materials that power artificial intelligence systems. Both are also using government subsidies to spur new advancements.
Trump meets TikTok investor, suddenly doesn’t want to ban it: The former president’s stunning reversal on the Chinese-owned app. Jonathan Chait
House to move ahead with bill targeting TikTok as Trump flips to oppose it: With both parties eager to demonstrate a willingness to be tough on China, bipartisan legislation to force the Chinese owners of the platform to divest or face a ban was moving forward. NYT
+ Officials from the FBI, Justice Department and Office of the Director of National Intelligence will brief all House lawmakers on TikTok Tuesday at 1:00 pm ET.
+ @MaeveSheehey: The House is planning to vote Wednesday on the TikTok bill, a leadership source confirms to me.
Tackling the TikTok threat: A House bill to force the social-media site from Beijing’s control deserves support. WSJ - Editorial
AI talent war heats up in Europe: Reuters reports an influx of artificial intelligence (AI) startups is heating up the battle for technical talent in Europe, leaving companies like Google DeepMind, opens new tab to choose between paying big or losing out on the region's best minds.
Abu Dhabi is setting up a technology investment firm targeting deals in artificial intelligence and semiconductors that could surpass $100 billion in assets under management in a few years.
Singapore startup to invest €3.2 billion in Italy chips factory: Bloomberg reports semiconductors startup Silicon Box will invest €3.2 billion ($3.5 billion) in Italy to build a chip factory in the north of the country, Industry Minister Adolfo Urso said Monday.
Malaysia: the surprise winner from US-China chip wars: Tension between Beijing and Washington over access to technology has prompted many companies to open factories in south-east Asia. FT
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to deepen economic ties with Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines as Europe’s largest economy looks to diversify trade relations in Asia and become less dependent on China.
Bloomberg: Islamic State is increasingly using crypto to fund Africa militant goals
+ US in 2023 reached settlements with Binance worth $4.4 billion
+ IS Somalia branch has become a primary source of revenue
Russia-India trade route through Central Asia moves forward: Nikkei reports Azerbaijan's role in shipping corridor turns into military advantage.
India implemented the Citizenship Amendment Act, a controversial law which initially passed in 2019, weeks before a general election.
India adds firepower to a missile program focused on China: WSJ reports India tested a missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, the latest advance in its homegrown Agni-V program.
+ China has lashed out at India over the construction of a tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh state, an area Beijing claims as part of its territory .
Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam: Planned Phnom Penh-coast link raises alarms amid regional influence tussle. Nikkei
Singapore steps up scrutiny of China wealth after money laundering case: Nikkei reports at least two family office applications with mainland ties rejected this year.
France suffered a series of cyber-attacks of “unprecedented” intensity, according to the prime minister’s office
Macron’s flawed plan to protect France from Le Pen and the far right: Marine Le Pen is leading Macron in the polls for June’s European elections. Will the far-right leader translate that support into winning the presidency in 2027? Bloomberg
The EU and UK need a new security deal fit for a more dangerous world: Years of free riding have left European countries dependent on the US — for greater autonomy, they need Britain’s help. Anand Menon
Boris Johnson to make a general election comeback: The Tims reports the former PM is expected to campaign in red wall seats to ‘take the fight to Keir Starmer’
BBC: Kate photo: Princess of Wales seen after saying she edited Mother's Day picture
British monarchy rocked by bad Photoshop job: The Verge someone appears to be indulging in the arts of Adobe poorly. And that someone is the princess, herself.
Altered photo of Princess of Wales sparks uproar: WSJ reports experts say details in the photo are consistent with an amateur splicing together different images from the same session to make a nice family portrait.
Royal photo fiasco shows why no one believes what they see anymore Molly Roberts
Kate Middleton’s photoshop didn’t fool anyone. But AI might. You think the princess’s sloppy editing fueled conspiracy theories? Just wait. Jessica Karl
Majorities in most countries surveyed say social media is good for democracy Pew
BBC: Haiti spirals to collapse as gangs tighten grip
Forecaster Peter Turchin: ‘The US is in a much more perilous state than Russia’: Academic’s models predicted 2020 instability. Was it just luck? FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Biden campaign launches $30M ad onslaught: Politico reports it’s part of an aggressive attempt to capitalize on the momentum from the State of the Union address.
Donald Trump endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in Michigan’s US Senate race.
RNC fires dozens of employees after Trump-backed leadership takes over: WP reports the staffing changes came days after Michael Whatley and Lara Trump, former president Donald Trump’s chosen candidates, were elected to head the RNC.
Katie Britt’s big fail shows why the GOP can’t connect with women Karen Tumulty
White House-Justice Dept. tensions high as Hur prepares to testify on Hill: WP reports as special counsel, Robert Hur angered the White House by denigrating President Biden’s memory in a report about Biden’s handling of classified material after his vice presidency.
President Joe Biden unveiled a $7.3 trillion fiscal 2025 budget proposal that would deliver more services—including in housing and child care—and middle-class tax breaks.
How Congress defanged Biden’s big science push: Congress has fully funded the CHIPS and Science Act’s subsidies for chipmakers. But lawmakers are poised to slash the budgets of federal agencies driving future scientific and technological advances. Politico
US-funded report issues urgent AI warning of 'uncontrollable' systems turning on humans: Rise of advanced AI could destabilize global security similar to nuclear weapons. Fox Business
US must move ‘decisively’ to avert ‘extinction-level’ threat from AI, government-commissioned report says Time
An action plan to increase the safety and security of advanced AI Gladstone AI
America’s election chiefs are worried AI is coming for them: Election officials are important enough to fake — and public enough to make it easy to do — but anonymous enough that voters may easily be tricked. Politico
Politicians must not ignore security threats in space: Increased military reliance on space brings new threats and challenges along with it, and Western policymakers need to urgently adapt. Anders Fogh Rasmussen
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
How the AI that drives ChatGPT will move into the physical world: Covariant, a robotics start-up, is designing technology that lets robots learn skills much like chatbots do. NYT
AI's destiny: Altman's return to OpenAI board leaves billionaires in control Axios
Is AI an existential risk? Q&A with RAND experts Blog
Employees at top AI labs fear safety is an afterthought, report says Time
Why Anthropic’s decision to share the rules behind its Claude 3 chatbot is a big deal—sort of: FC reports the decision to share Claude’s system prompt is a good first step, but whether others will follow—or if it tells us that much—is another question.
TC: Elon Musk says xAI will open-source Grok this week
Midjourney bans all Stability AI employees over alleged data scraping: The Verge reports Midjourney blamed a near 24-hour service outage on ‘botnet-like activity’ from two accounts linked to the Stable Diffusion creator.
Nvidia is sued by authors over AI use of copyrighted works: Reuters reports Nvidia, whose chips power artificial intelligence, has been sued by three authors who said it used their copyrighted books without permission to train its NeMo AI platform.
AI companies must own up to their sources: ‘Nothing will come of nothing,’ King Lear said. For bots, that means mining centuries of human endeavour and literature. Hugo Rifkind
Thomson Reuters has $8bn war chest for AI-focused deals, says chief: FT reports media and data group will develop its own technology and scoop up targets with AI capabilities.
FT: Telegram hits 900mn users and nears profitability as founder considers IPO
Axios: Reddit gets ready for IPO, eyes top valuation of $6.4 billion
Bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, above $71,000.
+ Bitcoin’s rally is creating around 1,500 ‘millionaire wallets’ daily
Automakers are sharing consumers’ driving behavior with insurance companies: LexisNexis, which generates consumer risk profiles for the insurers, knew about every trip GM drivers had taken in their cars, including when they sped, braked too hard or accelerated rapidly. NYT
USA Today: No cams allowed: Airbnb bans the use of indoor security cameras in its rentals
Liquid Death has raised new capital that values the startup at $1.4 billion, double its $700 million valuation in 2022.
Michaels has launched its "Respect the Handmade" campaign to promote its new MakerPlace initiative.
Miami’s office market was red-hot. Now its tallest planned tower can’t fill its space. The 1,000-foot project under construction is still searching for an anchor tenant. WSJ
*** Culture ***
Legal row could finally force mystery artist Banksy to reveal his real name: Two art collectors are taking legal action against artist over his ‘refusal’ to confirm the authenticity of one of his famous images. Guardian
With a Best Original Screenplay Oscar, 'Anatomy of a Fall' continues its incredible journey: The film, directed by Justine Triet and co-written with Arthur Harari, has garnered some 90 awards since its Palme d'Or win at Cannes in May 2023. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
The Bears confirmed Monday it intends to remain in the city of Chicago.
Bloomerg: Chicago Bears tout $2 billion plan in shift to city stadium
He set out to walk across the US. A year later, he reached the East Coast. WP
Mak
Saudi Arabia is splurging on sports. Is it working? Bloomberg
Why the Paris Olympics will be a modest showcase of wood architecture: Seeking to boost sustainability rather than build grand monuments as host of the 2024 Summer Games, Paris has turned to flexible, reusable timber. Bloomberg
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
ITK Daily | March 12
