ITK Daily | April 29
Tesla, Voters, Professional Class, Mid TV, New York Knicks, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
Always Be Communicating.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
Ukraine’s draft dodgers are living in fear: Ever more conscripts are needed against Russia’s offensive. Economist
Ukraine bets on long-range drones, raising costs of war for Russia: WSJ reports the country is doubling down on a campaign of strikes on Russian oil refineries, airfields and logistics.
France and Germany sign deal to co-develop 'tank of the future': Le Monde reports the French and German defense ministers agreed to jointly develop a new battle tank platform with cutting-edge AI and laser weapons technology.
Russian gas: Russia's LNG exports to the EU have continued to increase despite the war, and Russia is building additional export terminals to boost sales further.
Politico: Italy can do without Russian gas, says energy minister
+ Italy has been remarkably nimble at diversifying supply with a pipeline from Algeria and an increased ability to import LNG. Shipments from Russia made up less than 5 percent of Italy's overall gas imports last year, down from 43 percent in 2020, according to official figures.
NATO’s top officer is an admiral who thinks like an investor: Rob Bauer’s uniform used to draw insults. Now he benefits from public exposure, engaging with executives and others to tackle alliance shortfalls. WSJ
Germany's 'Reichsbuerger' coup suspects go on trial: Reuters reports nine men go on trial in Germany on Monday charged with high treason, attempted murder, and plotting a violent coup d'etat aimed at installing an aristocrat as national leader and imposing martial law.
+ Spain's socialist prime minister Pedro Sánchez announces he will not resign: "I have decided to continue."
BBC: Humza Yousaf resigns as Scotland's first minister
WP: Scotland leader Humza Yousaf resigns in latest setback for independence
The SNP is imploding. Has devolution failed? The broadcaster assesses what’s gone wrong after 25 years of the Scottish parliament — as an embattled Humza Yousaf and his government face a reckoning at Holyrood. Andrew Marr
Humza Yousaf: the SNP’s accidental first minister who was doomed to fail: Many of the problems the former leader did not solve were bequeathed to him by his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon. The Times
Who will replace Humza Yousaf as Scottish first minister? Barely a year after its last leadership election the SNP must decide again. Enter Kate Forbes, Stephen Flynn — and maybe even John Swinney. The Times
+ Alex Salmond has returned to the forefront of Scottish politics.
Anyone seen Rishi Sunak this morning? Tory rebels have been looking to Thursday’s set of English local elections as the last realistic chance of forcing a confidence vote in the PM.
+ Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt is still being spoken about as the most likely challenger to the PM if catastrophic local election results spark a confidence vote in Sunak.
Call me Giorgia: Italian leader ditches surname in electoral ploy: The Times reports Giorgia Meloni, who champions her working-class roots, has been criticized for taking advantage of a rule allowing voters to write down candidates’ nicknames on ballots.
Call me Ursula. Von der Leyen rebranded ahead of elections. Commission president’s team wants you to get to know the person behind the office. Politico
Germany considers watering down plan to scrutinize Chinese investments: Government is concerned an aggressive new investment-screening law could clash with plan to attract foreign capital. WSJ
43m: The number of international tourists predicted to visit the Philippines in 2030, up from 5.5m in 2023.
The dark-horse alliance racing forward to take on China: A US charm offensive, a new leader in the Philippines and forceful Chinese actions have helped forge a new era of ties between Washington and Manila. WSJ
Bloomberg: US creates team to counter China’s trade ‘coercion’ tactics
+ State Department team advises countries targeted by China
+ Washington has accused Beijing of ‘economic coercion’
Musk wins China’s backing for Tesla’s driver-assistance service: Beijing gives tentative approval for carmaker’s tech in its second-biggest market. WSJ
Tesla clears Beijing’s strict data rules, paving way for self-driving cars: The Times reports Elon Musk also agrees deal for Chinese road-mapping licence.
Tesla to work with Baidu in push to offer self-driving tech in China: Nikkei reports the US carmaker clears regulatory obstacles but timetable still unclear.
Elon Musk’s Tesla strikes deal with China’s Baidu for driver assistance: FT reports the US electric-vehicle maker moves closer to rolling out more autonomous driving features in world’s biggest auto market.
Bloomberg: Musk leaves China with Tesla driving software hurdles cleared
+ Carmaker to partner with tech giant Baidu on maps, navigation
+ Musk sought clearance from Beijing for potential revenue boost
The United States had every right to force a TikTok sale Tim Wu
US has little to fear from Chinese AI, for now: The country is still far off from catching up with its rival on artificial intelligence. Parmy Olson
China's Xi due in France on May 6 for state visit: Le Monde reports France's presidency said Emmanuel Macron was planning to discuss the wars in Ukraine and Gaza with his Chinese counterpart.
‘Honeypots’ and influence operations: China’s spies turn to Europe: Arrests in Germany and UK point to growing scale and ambition of Chinese espionage operations. FT
Bloomberg: China’s spy chief vows to fight espionage after Europe arrests
Japan steps up lobbying in Washington, hedging for Trump's return: Embassy retains an army of advisers, but weak currency causes headaches. Nikkei
Bloomberg: Japan’s ruling party loses special election in blow to premier
+ Main opposition party wins three seats formerly held by LDP
+ Scandal helped trigger defeat months ahead of leadership vote
Japan intervenes after yen slides against the dollar: WSJ reports the yen has plummeted this year as traders shift bets on US interest rates.
How long can Japan remain a haven from China? People, money, and trade are turning to Japan but a short-term opportunity may become a long-term problem. Gideon Rachman
Modi is $20 trillion short on his grand plan for India’s economy: To reach developed status by 2047, the country would need a sixfold increase in GDP. Bloomberg
An assassination plot on American soil reveals a darker side of Modi’s India: India’s intelligence service has aggressively targeted Indian diaspora populations in Asia, Europe, and North America, officials said. WP
Narendra Modi: Claims of autocracy ‘defame’ India: India’s prime minister responds to accusations he undermined democracy in run-up to general election by bringing criminal cases against opponents. The Times
Bloomberg: Microsoft CEO to meet Indonesian president during regional tour
+ Nadella to also visit countries such as Thailand and Malaysia
+ Apple’s Cook also met Widodo as tech firms eye Southeast Asia
How the right US chip strategy can keep Taiwan free Dmitri Alperovitch
Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia says economic revamp momentum intact as plans shift
+ Minister says more investors interested in Saudi giga projects
+ Kingdom’s non-oil economic growth seen between 4%-5% this year
In a Communist stronghold, capitalists become an economic lifeline: Cuba’s Communist revolution took aim at private businesses, making them largely illegal. Today, they are proliferating, while the socialist economy craters. NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Politically motivated cyber attacks are on the rise, putting our elections at risk: NETSCOUT found that DDoS attacks rose 15% in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half. FC
In tight presidential race, voters are broadly critical of both Biden and Trump: About half of voters say that, if given the chance, they would replace both candidates on the ballot. Pew
Poll: Biden and Trump supporters sharply divided by the media they consume: Those who don’t follow political news feel more positively about Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and more negatively about Joe Biden. NBC News
With abortion and the border, Arizona becomes a 2024 political hothouse: A battle over abortion bans and criminal charges against allies of former President Donald J. Trump continue to raise the state’s election-year profile. NYT
Tensions grow between Trump and Lake in Arizona race for Senate: WP reports the former president fears that GOP candidate Kari Lake might not win and will drag down his own prospects in the battleground state.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says Americans are ‘voting out of fear’: At a rally outside New York City, he questioned the nation’s Covid response and returned to a favorite issue: vaccine skepticism. NYT
In private, Biden shifts from frustration to confidence that he'll beat Trump: NBC News reports the president's mood has been buoyed by recent polling and his visits to battleground states, as Trump sits in a Manhattan courtroom for his criminal trial.
Unexpected slowdown in economic growth stokes uncertainty for Biden: Politico reports the big question now is what this report suggests will happen going forward. The worst-case scenario for the president would be for the economy to continue to slow while inflation stays elevated.
Koch group attacks Biden on the economy, hoping to engage Latino voters: NYT reports Libre, an arm of the conservative network, is set to spend millions of dollars on outreach and advertising as Republicans seek to expand inroads with Hispanic voters.
Today: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies at House Ways and Means
The petty feud between the NYT and the White House: Biden’s people think they’re “entitled.” The Times says “they’re not being realistic.” Politico
What Nikki Haley’s supporters mean for Trump’s chances in November: Haley primary voters could play an outsize role in swing-state contests. WSJ
Trump, GOP seize on campus protests to depict chaos under Biden: NBC News reports Republicans highlight images of turmoil, though most of the pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been peaceful.
The campus is coming for Joe Biden: As in 1968, the Democrat risks being the candidate of chaos and war. Economist
Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters arrested at campuses as colleges crack down on encampments: NBC News reports tensions between students and universities continued over the weekend, with many universities saying they support protests but that encampments violate school policy.
As colleges weigh crackdowns on protests, questions about outsiders linger: NYT reports with pro-Palestinian protests spreading across campuses nationwide, university leaders have had to confront a central question: When does a demonstration cross the line?
+ The House is scheduled to be in session for four straight weeks, the start of a lengthy May-June-July run for members.
A journalist, an influencer, and a consultant walk into DC’s biggest party: Three up-and-coming Washington players make their way through the professional and existential obstacle course of the White House correspondents’ weekend. WP
On this Saturday night, Colin Jost’s jokes fell flat: The White House Correspondents’ Association dinner has occasionally featured some great stand-up comedy. This “SNL” veteran’s set will not join that list. NYT
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
What happens when the professional class loses out to AI? Megan McArdle
Bloomberg: AI faces its ‘Oppenheimer moment’ during killer robot arms race
+ Civilian, military, and technology leaders convene Vienna talks
+ Artificial intelligence weapons defy traditional arms control
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and the $2 trillion company powering today's AI: Jensen Huang leads Nvidia – a tech company with a skyrocketing stock and the most advanced technology for artificial intelligence. 60 Minutes
CNBC: Oracle boosts its generative AI capabilities as cloud competition heats up
+ “Generative AI is basically the talk of the town right now,” Rondy Ng, executive vice president of applications developement at Oracle, told CNBC.
An AI blood test purports to diagnose postpartum depression: Companies are using artificial intelligence to take aim at a host of health issues including this common pregnancy complication. WP
Investors are showering AI startups with cash. One problem: They don’t have much of a business: Some startups are raising hundreds of millions of dollars before having a product or revenue. WSJ
AI start-ups face a rough financial reality check: The table stakes for small companies to compete with the likes of Microsoft and Google are in the billions of dollars. And even that may not be enough. NYT
Meta’s ‘set it and forget it’ AI ad tools are misfiring and blowing through cash: The Verge reports advertisers say that costs per impressions on the automated ad platform Advantage Plus have skyrocketed and performance has dropped.
Jim VandeHei on AI-proofing the news and ignoring ‘Twitter nerds’ Benjamin Hart
The Financial Times and OpenAI strike content licensing deal: FT reports the agreement comes as Microsoft-backed start-up seeks data from reliable sources to train latest artificial intelligence models.
Friends from the old neighborhood turn rivals in big tech’s AI race: Demis Hassabis and Mustafa Suleyman, who both grew up in London, feared a corporate rush to build artificial intelligence. Now they’re driving that competition at Google and Microsoft. NYT
Darktrace’s exit for the US rocks Britain’s tech scene: The Cambridge tech firm says its $5bn sale to private equity house Thoma Bravo will be good for it and for Britain. But that may not be so for the London stock market. The Times
Alberta wants more hydrogen vehicles. Experts say fuel infrastructure needs to come with them: Companies want assurance they can make the investment numbers work. CBC
Lamborghini tiptoes toward electric with new Urus hybrid SUV: Bloomberg reports the second plug-in from the Italian carmaker packs nearly 800 horsepower and lots of attitude.
Bloomberg: BYD revenue misses estimate as China EV discounts take toll
Nashville is booming. Locals fret about their future in Music City. As Oracle headquarters moves in, Nashvillians reckon with the pros and cons of being a boomtown. WSJ
The era of one-stop grocery shopping is over: Consumers are making 8% more trips to different retailers as inflation continues to upend household budgets. WSJ
Kraft Heinz’s CEO is a health nut. Can he remake a processed-food giant? Carlos Abrams-Rivera explains his lifestyle and his company’s approach to ketchup and Lunchables. WSJ
Gucci offers a gaudy warning about the future of high fashion: The Times reports once the darling of the Kering group, the brand has struggled amid a downturn in the luxury market.
A media heiress’s bid to sell sets off mayhem inside Paramount: The storied Hollywood company behind ‘The Godfather’ faces its biggest battle yet as Shari Redstone’s merger plans collide with shareholder fury and a CEO on the outs. WSJ
*** Culture ***
The uglification of everything: Artistic culture has taken a repulsive turn. It speaks of a society that hates itself, and hates life. Peggy Noonan
My My! by Giles Smith review — how Abba conquered the world: Pop’s No 1 super troupe have come a long way since they won Eurovision in 1974. This witty and affectionate account charts the highs and lows. The Times
The comfortable problem of mid TV: It’s got a great cast. It looks cinematic. It’s, um … fine. And it’s everywhere. NYT
*** Sport ***
'Less flashy' PSG crowned champions of France for 12th time: Le Monde reports PSG won their 12th Ligue 1 title on Sunday. While Kylian Mbappé was still the star, this season was marked by an improved team cohesion, a sign of the change of direction initiated by the club two years ago.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino is visiting Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday to meet with lawmakers to discuss planning for the 2026 World Cup.
+ Infantino is meeting with the leaders of the Congressional Soccer Caucus — Reps. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rick Larsen (D-WA), Don Bacon (R-NE), and Kathy Castor (D-FL) — to delve into the preparation for the upcoming World Cup. The 2026 World Cup will be played in 16 cities in the US, Mexico, and Canada.
The New York Knicks are a playoff nightmare: An injured, undermanned basketball team has a city’s heart and a captivating star in Jalen Brunson. Think they can’t win? Ask Philly. Jason Gay
Baseball hustlers: Why are well-to-do parents fundraising to send their kids on vacations to Cooperstown? Michelle Hainer
Greece hands Olympic flame to 2024 Paris Games hosts: Le Monde reports the Paris Olympics flame was formally handed to French organizers in the all-marble stadium where the first modern Games were held in Athens in 1896.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
ITK Daily | April 30
