Caracal Daily | May 21
Iran, Doug Burgum, Scarlett Johansson, Burn Out, College Sports, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
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Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
WP: Iranian president’s death adds to volatility as conflict shakes the Middle East
Ayatollah demands swift replacement for Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi: The Times reports dissidents celebrate death of ‘Butcher of Tehran’ while the regime scrambles to set in stone succession plans.
Death of Ebrahim Raisi to test unity of Iran’s hardline factions: Process to choose new president could push political rivalries among regime loyalists to new level. FT
Aggression or caution: The choice facing Iran’s next leaders: The question is whether the successors to the president and foreign minister will take a similar path by keeping slivers of communication open, and avoiding direct conflict with the United States. NYT
‘A true friend’: Russia, China offer condolences after death of Iran’s President: Politico reports Raisi made an “invaluable personal contribution” to boosting neighborly relations between Tehran and Moscow, Putin said.
US ‘condolences’ for Raisi reflect a delicate diplomatic ritual: NYT reports whether it’s Stalin or Castro or Kim Jong-il, the United States struggles for the right words when a reviled foreign strongman dies.
Japan and ASEAN to craft auto strategy to counter China's EVs: Nikkei reports the first-of-its-kind undertaking to cover production and sales in Southeast Asia.
Biden’s China tariffs are the end of an era for cheap Chinese goods: NYT reports the president’s move to protect strategic manufacturing sectors from low-cost competition aims to increase jobs, but consumers might not like the costs.
Why China is reluctant to make a much-needed shift: Beijing is stubbornly refusing to genuinely empower consumers, preferring to focus on industrial support. Yanmei Xie
The battlegrounds that could decide a US-China war over Taiwan: Five key military contests are likely to determine the outcome of a conflict. FT
Xi’s warm embrace of Putin in China is a defiance of the West: Western leaders looking for signs that the Chinese leader used his influence on President Vladimir V. Putin to end the war in Ukraine are likely to be disappointed. NYT
China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world: After Putin’s invasion of Ukraine trade links between the two countries have strengthened. So have Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. FT
Behind Putin visit, unease in Beijing over his potential next stop: North Korea: WSJ reports the Russian president skipped tacking on Pyongyang to his China visit, but growing ties between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are worrying Xi Jinping.
As Putin girds for protracted war, a new elite emerges. Meet the Russian princelings. A reshuffle at the start of the Russian president’s fifth term promoted the offspring of several of his closest associates and ultraloyalists. WSJ
Putin has put Russia on a permanent war footing: The Russian president has reshuffled his government, integrating the country’s defence and civil economies to turn it into a permanently mobilised state. The Times
Georgia and Russia’s ‘hybrid war’: Vladimir Putin’s friends in Tbilisi are following the Kremlin’s playbook to shut down independent voices in civil society. WSJ - Editorial
Reuters: Ukraine's Zelenskiy pushes allies to step up aid and involvement in war
Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas are fed up waiting for Western munitions: Le Monde reports neither the shells included in the 'Czech plan' announced this winter, nor those tied to US aid approved at the end of April, have reached the front line, undermining the morale of Ukrainian troops.
In a foxhole with the special forces taking out 40 Russians a day: Standing between Putin and Kharkiv are elite Ukrainian soldiers delivering death by handset — and posting kill videos to crowdfund for the war. The Times
The robots are coming: How Ukraine became the testing ground for AI-powered combat: As autonomous drones soar toward the frontline, bigger countries like China and the US are watching. Politico
These ISIS news anchors are AI fakes. Their propaganda is real. The Islamic State-affiliated media broadcast News Harvest shows how artificial intelligence can be used to disseminate extremist propaganda quickly and cheaply. WP
Reuters: Donald Trump foreign policy advisers met Israeli PM Netanyahu, source says
International Criminal Court seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas leaders: Politico reports the International Criminal Court prosecutor alleges crimes against humanity committed by both sides in Gaza war.
US and Saudi Arabia near agreement on bilateral security deal: FT reports the White House said the US and Saudi Arabia were close to an agreement on the bilateral elements of a security deal that would be part of a broader settlement with Israel.
Bloomberg: Saudi Crown Prince postpones Japan trip over King’s health
+ Crown prince was expected to visit Japan from May 20-23
+ Trip to Japan was also canceled on short notice in 2022
UK votes: The latest poll from Ipsos saw Labour fall three points and the Tories rise one point, with Labour still boasting a 21-point lead.
Battle of the black holes: Who has the tools to fix the economy? Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are bamboozling voters with conflicting sets of sums as they gear up for a general election. The Times
Three stages that will reveal the real Starmer: The Labour leader’s true political character will only emerge in office — and it may surprise supporters and even himself. William Hague
South Africa’s Constitutional Court barred Jacob Zuma from running in the general election on May 29th. The country’s constitution bans anyone sentenced to prison for more than a year from running for parliament.
The likely next president outlines her plan to make Mexicans safer: The country needs reforms like those in the capital, says Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. Economist
General says he warned that Afghanistan would get ‘very bad, very fast’: Austin Scott Miller, the last four-star US commander based in Kabul, is among the latest witnesses to meet with lawmakers scrutinizing the Biden administration’s management of the withdrawal. WP
Masters of War: In search of the new world order in Munich Thomas Meaney
*** US Politics + Elections ***
RFK Jr. is 2024’s X factor, new polls show, fueled by young voters and social media: Half of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s supporters said they were voting chiefly for him, and nearly half said their support was mostly a vote against President Biden or former President Donald J. Trump. NYT
Americans are down on the economy (again), with inflation topping election concerns: Consumer sentiment is at a six-month low, and people are pulling back on all kinds of purchases. WP
Democratic donors warn Joe Biden that Gaza stance threatens re-election bid: FT reports fears grow that party split on Israel-Hamas war could favour Trump in November vote.
Trump’s immigration plans could deal a major blow to the job market: WP reports immigration is a big reason the employment picture rebounded so strongly from the pandemic. That could be in jeopardy, economists say.
Economists forecast $500bn annual hit from new Trump tariffs: FT reports the Peterson Institute says poorest Americans will suffer most if Republican wins election and raises levies as promised.
What science tells us about Biden, Trump and evaluating an aging brain: The 2024 presidential race has been dominated by allegations of mental decline. Scientists and doctors offer cautionary notes. WP
WP: Doug Burgum’s primary run was short-lived. Now he’s everywhere with Trump.
Rich, loyal, and good looking: Why little-known Doug Burgum is in Trump’s VP mix: The presumptive Republican nominee likes North Dakota’s governor—and his rich friends. WSJ
Trump’s VP contenders echo his claims on election fraud, debate drug tests: WSJ reports Republicans angling to serve on former president’s 2024 ticket are repeating many of his controversial or unsupported assertions.
The MAGA memory hole: Many Republicans continue their collective amnesia about Trump. Tom Nichols
WP: A dark new biopic starring Sebastian Stan as a young Trump is the talk of Cannes
Deadline: Donald Trump origin tale ‘The Apprentice’ gets 11-minute ovation at its Cannes world premiere
After years of Democratic dominance, Nevada could be slipping from Biden’s grasp: The Silver State hasn’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004, but polls this year so far show Donald Trump with a lead. WP
The AI pork barrel arrives: Chuck Schumer has found a new excuse to spend $32 billion a year, and some Republicans are going along for the ride. WSJ - Editorial
The coming war between DC and Silicon Valley: A political fight is brewing over who’ll benefit most from the AI revolution — and what if anything Washington should do to shape the outcome. Politico
Sweeping Colorado AI bill signed by Governor as he urges changes: Bloomberg reports Colorado Gov. Jared Polis signed legislation Friday that will give the state the most far-reaching regulations on artificial intelligence in the nation. Polis (D) said he was signing the bill “with reservations” in a letter to lawmakers, adding his “hope that it furthers the conversation, especially at the national level.”
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: OpenAI dissolves high-profile safety team after Chief Scientist Sutskever’s exit
+ “Superalignment” group will be folded into broader research efforts at the company.
OpenAI put ‘shiny products’ over safety, departing top researcher says: Jan Leike’s exit from ChatGPT maker is the latest sign of internal divisions over technology’s development. FT
Youth activists call on world leaders to set AI safeguards by 2030 WP
Bloomberg: Scarlett Johansson hired lawyers to push back on ‘eerily similar’ OpenAI voice
+ Actress says AI company voice sounded ‘eerily’ like her
+ AI imitation on screen has become Hollywood hot-button issue
The race for an AI-powered personal assistant: Google and OpenAI unveiled new tools to bring ‘intelligent systems’ a step closer. Will this be a milestone for generative AI? FT
Bloomberg: Michael Dell says AI PCs will be ‘pretty standard’ in 2025
WP: Microsoft will build AI into new laptops, firing shot at Apple
Bloomberg: JPMorgan says every new hire will get training for AI
Reddit shares surge as it strikes content deal with OpenAI: FT reports the agreement comes as competition for high-quality data to underpin AI models intensifies.
Snowflake is in talks to acquire startup Reka AI for more than $1 billion.
Abrdn revolts against Amazon over the risks of AI: The Times reports a big investor has expressed fears over Alexa’s effect on human rights before the tech company’s annual shareholders meeting.
Apple needs to evolve to compete in the artificial intelligence era Bloomberg
An Nvidia co-founder’s latest bet: Making ‘Quantum Valley’ in New York: WSJ reports Curtis Priem is donating more than $75 million to help Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute become a hub for a cutting-edge technology.
The price of copper extended its dramatic rally, rising to a record high of $11,105 per ton at the London Metal Exchange. The price of the metal has surged by 28% since the beginning of 2024.
WSJ: Ivan Boesky, convicted in 1980s insider-trading scandals, dies at 87
*** Culture ***
Even remote and hybrid work can burn you out. Here’s how to avoid it. Our new era of work has led many to working harder and more often, carrying over bad habits from the height of the pandemic. Danielle Abril
Jonathan Yeo: What the King thinks of my portrait — and why it’s so red: The artist trusted by Charles has overcome tragedy and pays no heed to the mockery that greeted his painting. But his daughter loved the satanist conspiracy theories. The Times
Inside Reese Witherspoon’s literary empire: When her career hit a wall, the Oscar-winning actor built a ladder made of books — for herself, and for others. NYT
*** Sport ***
Too big for Scotland … so what next for the Old Firm? Celtic are increasingly dominant over Rangers but both dwarf their rivals in Scotland. With no chance of joining a different league or competing financially with Europe’s elite the future for both clubs seems predictable. The Times
Why this is a massive month for the future of college sports: The NCAA and power conferences are set to vote on whether to settle an antitrust lawsuit, which would have far-reaching implications. WP
+ @FOS: Last night, Charles Barkley said he hadn’t been to Minnesota in “probably 20 years.”
Anthony Edwards responded “Bring ya ass.”
BringYaAss dot com now directs you to the state of Minnesota’s tourism website.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | May 21
