Caracal Daily | May 24
Labour Party, Wisconsin, Washington Post, Italian Gas Stations, T20, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.
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Happy Friday.
Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:
*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***
The Times: Sunak facing election exodus of Tory MPs
+ Number of Conservatives standing down rises to 72
Nigel Farage won’t stand in UK election because Trump is higher priority: Politico reports the Brexiteer says he wants to help with the grassroots campaign’ in the forthcoming American election, UK vote be damned.
Britain’s drama-weary voters prepare for a battle of the boring leaders: In early July, British voters face a choice between two politicians who are offering an unusual political recipe these days: a return to dull pragmatism in a world of polarizing populism. WSJ
The 9 key issues that will divide voters and define the election: Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on a general election, setting the date for July 4. Now the Tories and Labour must battle over the talking points. The Times
Could the Labour Party blow its big opportunity? Sir Keir Starmer’s party is terrified of letting victory slip through its fingers. Economist
The United Kingdom and Canada have pledged to strengthen collaboration on AI safety, building upon their shared commitment to responsible AI development.
Russia moves to extend its maritime borders, angering Baltic Sea nations: AFP reports Russia unveiled a bill on Tuesday that would redefine its maritime borders in the Baltic Sea, causing an outcry among Baltic and other northern European countries and fueling geopolitical tensions.
Russia’s military seeks new recruits: crime suspects: 61-year-old pop singer is among those brought to front line in mobilization drive. FT
Burning skin, teary eyes: Ukraine’s troops say Russia is using a banned toxic gas: WSJ reports Ukrainian forces describe the physical effects of gas they say Moscow’s troops are using to oust them from their positions.
Volodymyr Zelensky, a president with no term end: Le Monde reports Ukraine's president was elected in 2019, and his first term is supposed to have ended. But under the country's martial law, which was introduced because of the Russian invasion, no election can be held.
Olaf Scholz on why Vladimir Putin’s brutal imperialism will fail: Germany’s chancellor says Europe needs more military muscle. Economist
China ‘punishes’ Taiwan with drills of large-scale attack: The Times reports the island scrambles fighter jets in response days after new president is sworn into office.
Taiwan is the new Berlin: A Cold War lesson for America’s contest with China. Dmitri Alperovitch
When will China try to take over Taiwan? Lai Ching-te was officially sworn in as Taiwan's new president on Monday. Like his predecessor, he will have to contend with Xi Jinping's repeated attempts to integrate the island into the Chinese fold. Harold Thibault
Can Taiwan defend itself against China? Taiwan has expanded its asymmetric warfare capacity, which involves using smaller but highly effective weapons to make an invasion by a larger force prohibitively costly. DW
South Korea announced a 26trn won ($19bn) support package for the country’s semiconductor industry.
Taylor Swift buoys Singapore GDP to 2.7% Q1 growth: Nikkei reports the city-state basks in concert tourism glow, but export expansion continues to slide.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio joins billionaires snapping up Singapore ‘shophouses’: FT reports investor’s family office bought two heritage properties for $19mn.
Geopolitics helps reignite New Caledonia’s anti-colonial unrest: Emmanuel Macron makes an emergency dash to the troubled Pacific island. Economist
Unprecedented insurrection in New Caledonia - Macron: BBC reports President Emmanuel Macron has described rioting in the French-Pacific territory of New Caledonia as an "unprecedented insurrection movement" that no-one saw coming.
New Caledonia unrest deals further blow to nickel industry: Riots and questions over territory's stability buoy prices but market glut remains. Nikkei
Bloomberg: Macron says he’d prefer that Mistral AI grow ‘on their own’
CNBC: Macron: French AI boom could help EU close tech innovation gap with US and China
Macron wants to make France a 'champion' in AI: Le Monde reports on Tuesday, France's president announced a number of measures aimed at spreading the use of artificial intelligence. Paris plans to host an international summit in February 2025.
How Soda, chocolate, and chewing gum are funding war in Sudan: Around 80% of the world’s gum arabic is harvested from Sudan’s acacia trees, and the widely used ingredient has become a key funding source for both sides in the country’s civil war. WSJ
Argentina’s peso plunges in warning light for Milei: FT reports widening gap between official and unofficial rates makes it trickier to remove currency controls.
Stage collapses at Mexico campaign event, killing at least nine: AP reports the collapse of a stage in heavy winds at a campaign rally in northern Mexico has killed at least nine people, including a child, and injured 121, the governor of Nuevo Leon state said Thursday.
Criminal gangs are showing their muscle as Mexico’s elections loom: The next president must make the country safer. Economist
WP: Biden welcomes Kenyan leader after failing to visit Africa as promised
Biden Honors Kenya as the East African Nation Prepares to Send Forces to Haiti: NYT reports President Biden welcomed President William Ruto of Kenya and said he intended to designate his country as a “major non-NATO ally.”
America must face reality and prioritize China over Europe: This does not mean abandoning US allies on the continent but is based on a sober assessment of military capabilities. Elbridge Colby
Seven hours in Geneva hotel highlight US-China struggle on AI Bloomberg
+ First talks see each side push different vision for governance
+ AI becomes new arena of rivalry as Washington, Beijing engage
DARPA-backed startup seeks $70 million to join AI chip goldrush: Bloomberg reports EnCharge AI Inc., joins the growing technological race to build better chips to power the current wave of AI technology. Computing power has become a scarce and precious resource in the AI world, helping send chipmaker Nvidia Corp.’s market cap soaring past $2 trillion and spurring OpenAI boss Sam Altman to seek billions for chipmaking endeavors.
US intelligence agencies’ embrace of generative AI is at once wary and urgent AP
Generative AI: Friend or foe for US intelligence agencies? Current AI models are not sophisticated enough to handle the complex life-and-death decisions common to the national security realm. FC
The US is forming a global AI safety network with key allies: US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo says the US is collaborating with other countries, including the UK, Japan, and Canada, to manage the risks posed by artificial intelligence. Wired
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Rural white voters in Wisconsin could decide America’s election: They are less enthusiastic about Donald Trump than their counterparts elsewhere. Economist
Is the Biden campaign running on false hope? Most polls show Donald Trump leading in swing states, but the Democratic Party strategist Simon Rosenberg believes the President’s chances are better than the surveys suggest. The New Yorker
Biden campaign met with Haley voters to woo them following her pledge to vote for Trump: ABC News reports voters shared policy issues that were important to them heading into November.
RFK Jr. is even crazier than you might think: The full depth of his battiness is getting lost in the political coverage of his presidential bid. David Corn
White House pushes tech industry to shut down market for sexually abusive AI deepfakes: AP reports the White House is putting out a call Thursday looking for voluntary cooperation from companies in the absence of federal legislation. By committing to a set of specific measures, officials hope the private sector can curb the creation, spread, and monetization of such nonconsensual AI images, including explicit images of children.
AI on the campaign trail: The FCC fines political consultant $6 million for AI robocalls that impersonated Biden before the New Hampshire primary.
AI promised to upend the 2024 campaign. It hasn’t yet. With less than six months until the 2024 election, the political uses of AI are more theoretical than transformational. “This is the dog that didn’t bark,” said one adviser to a Democratic donor. NYT
FCC is considering AI rules for political ads CNN
Some of Silicon Valley’s most prominent investors are turning against Biden: Marc Andreessen, Chamath Palihapitiya, and several other tech venture capitalists are increasingly criticizing President Biden and making their disaffection known in an election year. NYT
SEC opens the door for spot ether ETFs in major crypto victory: Bloomberg reports the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday paved the way for trading in exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency Ether, putting the digital-asset industry on the cusp of a significant milestone.
Norfolk Southern to pay $310 million for East Palestine accident: NYT reports the railroad company reached an agreement with the federal government to settle claims and costs from the 2023 derailment of a train carrying hazardous materials in the Ohio town.
US calls for breakup of Ticketmaster owner: NYT reports accused of violating antitrust laws, Live Nation Entertainment faces a fight that could reshape the multibillion-dollar live music industry.
This hurricane season could be among the worst in decades, NOAA warns: WP reports the NOAA outlook predicts 17 to 25 tropical storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven “major” hurricanes, and is the most aggressive May prediction the agency has made.
2024 hurricane season is expected to be abnormally busy, NOAA predicts: NYT reports the Atlantic hurricane season is looking to be an extraordinary one, with 17 to 25 named storms predicted, experts said.
Miami Herald: New preseason hurricane forecast is highest ever issued. Brace yourself, Florida
‘Deny, denounce, delay’: the battle over the risk of ultra-processed foods: Despite a growing body of evidence, Big Food is trying to dampen fears about the health effects of industrially formulated substances. FT
Colorado passes first in the nation attempt to assess AI discrimination: While antidiscrimination laws exist, those who study AI discrimination say it’s a different beast, which the US is already behind in regulating. FC
Arizona lawmaker says ChatGPT helped draft new deepfakes law: The Hill reports An Arizona state lawmaker said artificial intelligence (AI) system ChatGPT helped draft a new deepfake legislation that was signed into law this week. Republican state Rep. Alex Kolodin said he used ChatGPT to write a subsection of House Bill 2394, which tackles AI-related impersonations of people by allowing Arizona residents to legally assert they are not featured in deepfake videos.
+ “I used it to write the part of the bill that had to do with defining what a deepfake was,” Kolodin told NBC News. “I was really struggling with the technical aspects of how to define what a deepfake was. So I thought to myself, ‘Well, why not ask the subject matter expert, ChatGPT?’”
1.6: The average number of children that American women had in 2023, down from 3.6 in 1960.
*** Disruption + Innovation ***
OpenAI didn’t copy Scarlett Johansson’s voice for ChatGPT, records show: A different actress was hired to provide the voice for ChatGPT’s “Sky,” according to documents and recordings shared with the Washington Post. WP
OpenAI’s Altman on defense six months after surviving ouster: The CEO has issued a series of apologies and mea culpas after criticism from employees and one of the most famous actresses in the world. Bloomberg
OpenAI just gave away the entire game: The Scarlett Johansson debacle is a microcosm of AI’s raw deal: It’s happening, and you can’t stop it. Charlie Warzel
Scarlett Johansson is right: AI companies must be more transparent: A new index shows that they have a long way to go, including on data access and model trustworthiness. John Thornhill
OpenAI’s Scarlett Johansson voice fiasco highlights old tech bias Bloomberg
Google’s AI search wants you to glue cheese to your pizza. It’s just the tip of its bad-idea iceberg Fortune
AI relies on mass surveillance, warns signal boss: The AI tools that crunch numbers, generate text and videos and find patterns in data rely on mass surveillance and exercise concerning control over our lives, the boss of encrypted messaging app Signal told AFP on Thursday. Pushing back against the unquestioning enthusiasm at VivaTech in Paris, Europe's top startup conference where industry players vaunt the merits of their products, Meredith Whittaker said concerns about surveillance and those about AI were "two framings of the same thing."
+ "The AI technologies we're talking about today are reliant on mass surveillance."
Futurism: The Washington Post tells staff it’s pivoting to AI
+ "AI everywhere in our newsroom."
OpenAI is making journalism an offer it can’t refuse: There is no opting out of artificial intelligence, so getting paid makes sense, but the deals with publishers don’t bode well for the future of newsgathering. David Lee
Bloomberg: Meta’s Zuckerberg creates council to advise on AI products
WP: Meta’s new AI hides sources and copies sentences from news outlets
CNBC: Amazon plans to give Alexa an AI overhaul — and a monthly subscription price
Bloomberg: Alphabet, Meta offer millions to partner with Hollywood on AI
+ Studios seek to harness AI’s promise without losing control
+ Warner weighs licensing content; Disney, Netflix say no
Elon Musk’s xAI secures new backing from Andreessen, Lightspeed, Sequoia, and Tribe: FT reports the billionaire’s artificial intelligence start-up closes in on $6bn funding round as it seeks more financial firepower.
Bloomberg: Nvidia’s Huang is now richer Tthan every member of Walmart’s founding family
+ Jensen Huang’s fortune catapulted past Jim, Rob, and Alice
+ Nvidia shares jumped after another bullish sales forecast
Business school teaching case study: Risks of the AI arms race: Competitive haste raises questions about safe development of the technology. Explore the issues with this dean’s case study. FT
Can the AI boom stop the tech exodus from San Francisco? Vast swaths of office space have been left empty after a big shift to remote working. Tabby Kinder
Fallout from cyberattack at Ascension Hospitals persists, causing delays in patient care: For two weeks at the 140-hospital system, doctors and nurses have had little access to digital records for patient histories, resorting to paper and faxes to treat people. NYT
Citi just got the bill for its $189 billion trading mess-up: CNN reports UK regulators slapped a combined £62 million ($79 million) fine on Citigroup Wednesday for failures in its trading systems that almost resulted in stocks worth $189 billion being dumped onto European markets.
A brief history of Wall Street’s fat finger problem Bloomberg
AP: By the numbers: There are now more daily marijuana users in the US than daily alcohol users
+ In Canada, cannabis poisonings rose sharply among people 65 and older after the country legalized the drug, a new study found.
Bloomberg: SpaceX weighs plan to sell shares valuing firm at $200 billion
The manicure economy: Work demands an even more human touch as machines take jobs. FT
*** Culture ***
The case for eating at Italian gas stations: Food is life in Italy. Even at gas stations. WP
Suits are the perfect garment. Why have they lost their power? Scholar Anne Hollander believed a well-fitted suit was the apotheosis of dressing. She foretold their waning influence, too. WP
Scrolling alone: Smartphones and social atomization Michael Toscano
*** Sport ***
Wanted: More extremely rich people crazy enough to buy a soul-crushing sports team: As franchise values soar, the NFL mulls becoming the latest league to open its doors to private equity. Jason Gay
United States stun Bangladesh to claim T20 series: AFP reports the United States defeated Bangladesh by six runs on Thursday to win the second Twenty20 international and claim a shock victory in the three-match series at Houston.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | May 24
