Caracal Daily | June 4

Caracal Daily | June 4

Labour, Border, Cruise, Centre Pompidou, Real Madrid, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.

Caracal Daily is geopolitical business news + intelligence for comms pros.

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Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s Caracal Daily:

*** Globalization + Geopolitics ***

Nigel Farage announced he is taking over the Reform leadership and will stand again to become an MP.

Brexit champion says he’ll run for parliament, jolting UK election: Nigel Farage, an anti-immigration campaigner and Trump ally, reversed a pledge not to run. His Reform UK party hopes to take seats from the Conservatives. NYT

Tory election hopes hit after Nigel Farage decides to stand for Reform UK: FT reports Brexit campaigner returns as party leader in eighth attempt to become MP as new poll shows Labour could win huge majority.

YouGov revealed its 58,000 sample MRP poll showing Labour are on course for a 194-seat majority, winning 422 seats and leaving the Tories slumping to 140 — assuming the polls don’t move from their current position. 

+ That’s bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 majority.

Bloomberg: Tories fail to dent Labour polling lead in early UK campaign

+ Bloomberg polling average gives opposition a 21.5-point lead

+ Sunak to face Starmer in televised ITV debate on Tuesday

Twelve Tory ministers including Hunt and Shapps set to lose seats: A YouGov poll predicts that the chancellor and defence secretary will be among a dozen cabinet casualties as Labour secures best-ever general election result. The Times

Labour’s lack of boldness could come back to haunt it: The party’s fear of looking irresponsible is closing off the prospect of growth-boosting tax reform. Martin Sandbu

Can Britain’s economy grow as fast as it needs to? Labour is banking on a big upswing in growth. It will struggle to get one. Economist

Ukraine can strike Russian targets with Dutch F-16s: Bloomberg reports the Dutch position contrasts with Belgian policy, under which donated F-16s cannot be used by Kyiv to hit targets inside Russia.

Macron is considering a risky plan in Ukraine. What if Putin calls his bluff? Until now, the West has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. France’s Emmanuel Macron has other ideas. Lee Hockstader

Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to the peace summit coming up in Switzerland this month to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.

Bloomberg: Poland unveils plan to spend $760 million on cybersecurity boost

‘I’m that bitch Meloni’: Italian PM’s enemies gift her a slogan: Leader turns insult to her advantage as she campaigns in the European parliament elections. The Times

EU elections poll: Far right consolidates lead in France: In the final stretch before the vote, the Rassemblement National's Jordan Bardella continues to rise, reaching 33% of voting intentions, while Macron's governing coalition falls back to 16% and the Socialists stand at 14.5%, a Le Monde poll shows.

Indian markets hit record highs as exit polls forecast Modi victory: FT reports the nifty 50 stock index jumps and rupee strengthens against dollar.

China’s economic model retains a dangerous allure: Despite the country’s current struggles, autocrats elsewhere see a lot to admire. Economist

US, China seek guardrails as Taiwan tensions persist: DW reports experts say the US-Chinese defense minister meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue was a sign both sides want to manage risks. However, China did not back off on threatening Taiwan and lashing out at "external forces." 

China is ‘prepositioning’ for future cyberattacks—and the new NSA chief is worried: ‘We see it as very unique and different—and also concerning,’ Gen. Timothy Haugh says in a WSJ interview. WSJ

Biden’s science adviser explains the new hard line on China: Arati Prabhakar, director of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy, discusses Washington’s newly tough consensus on China. WP

France's Indo-Pacific strategy hit by New Caledonia crisis: At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the French defense minister said there were 'manipulations' from other countries during the violence that rocked the French Pacific Territory since in May. His claim did not convince other Pacific countries. Le Monde

Japan companies to launch $1bn fund for hydrogen supply chains: Nikkei reports initiative to prioritize investments among IPEF countries.

Netanyahu signals openness to cease-fire with option to resume war: WSJ reports the Israeli leader showed cautious support for an initiative from President Biden, but his position runs counter to Hamas demands for a lasting cease-fire that secures the group’s survival.

Israel's Netanyahu to address US Congress on June 13: US media: AFP reports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address the US Congress on June 13, media reported Monday, amid mounting pressure for the American ally and Hamas to agree to a permanent ceasefire.

Turkey’s exports to Israel collapsed by 99% in May, compared with the same month last year, after the Turkish government stopped trade because of the war in Gaza.

Somalia threatened to expel thousands of Ethiopian soldiers who are stationed in the country. 

Burkina Faso world's worst forgotten crisis: report: DW reports the Norwegian Refugee Council has said ongoing conflicts and a chronic lack of funding have led to the neglect of millions of displaced people. It has compiled a grim ranking of the worst-affected countries.

Claudia Sheinbaum has been elected Mexico’s first ever female president after receiving nearly 58 percent of the vote in Sunday’s elections.

Voters in Mexico cement the governing party’s dominance: NYT reports expectations were high for the leftist Morena party, and it exceeded them, potentially giving President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum and her allies the power to enact systemic change.

Mexico ruling party’s election sweep spooks markets: WSJ reports the result could pave the way for constitutional changes that opponents say risk weakening the country’s democracy while increasing the role of the state in the economy.

How the US's European allies are preparing for a second trump term: American allies see a second Trump term as all but inevitable. “The anxiety is massive.” The Atlantic

A GOP hawk tries to reassure a world on edge about Trump: In Taipei and Singapore, Sen. Dan Sullivan looks to quell foreign leaders’ fears that the US won’t stand by allies if Trump wins. WSJ

***  US Politics + Elections ***

Biden to issue order on southern border, limiting asylum: WSJ reports the executive order would ban migrants who cross the border illegally from claiming asylum, allowing them to be quickly deported.

Biden expected to announce new asylum restrictions at border: WP reports President Biden is expected to announce a plan Tuesday to temporarily seal the U.S.-Mexico border and restrict asylum for immigrants.

Democrats wanted an agreement on using artificial intelligence. It went nowhere: The Democratic National Committee was watching earlier this year as campaigns nationwide were experimenting with artificial intelligence. So the organization approached a handful of influential party campaign committees with a request: Sign onto guidelines that would commit them to use the technology in a “responsible” way. AP

US cites AI deepfakes as reason to keep Biden recording with Robert Hur secret: Guardian reports a DOJ filing says president’s interview with special counsel about handling of classified documents could be ‘improperly altered.’

The US gave chip makers billions. Now comes the hard part. WSJ reports the Chips Act is supposed to supercharge US chip making, but the program’s early stages have been challenged by rivals overseas as well as the sheer expense of manufacturing chips.

Bloomberg: ACLU asks for US probe into bias of consultant's AI hiring tools

Bloomberg: TikTok parent hires new general counsel as app fights US government

New York set to restrict social-media algorithms for teens: A state law would ban serving automated feeds and late-night notifications to minors without parental consent. WSJ

*** Disruption + Innovation ***

What AI thinks a beautiful woman looks like WP

TC: People are using AI music generators to create hateful songs

Bloomberg: Apple plans AI-based Siri overhaul to control individual app functions

+ Only 4% of young Americans use generative AI every day or almost daily, while over 40% said they have never used GenAI tools at all, according to a recent NORC survey.

Adobe scolded for selling ‘Ansel Adams-style’ images generated by AI: The Verge reports the late photographer’s estate has been contacting Adobe since August and finally got a response.

The opaque investment empire making OpenAI’s Sam Altman rich: WSJ reports many companies backed by the CEO do business with the ChatGPT maker and benefit from the AI boom driven by the blockbuster startup, raising questions of conflicts.

Microsoft said it will invest $3.2 billion to expand its AI and cloud infrastructure in Sweden, its largest-ever investment in the country. As part of the plan, Microsoft will install 20,000 advanced GPUs at its data centers in Sandviken, Gävle, and Staffanstorp.

The transformative potential of computerised brain implants: Radical advances in neurotechnology are helping disabled people walk and could provide the link between human and artificial intelligence. FT

AMD unveils new AI chips to compete with Nvidia: FC reports AMD has been vying to compete against Nvidia, which currently dominates the lucrative market for AI semiconductors and commands about 80% of its share.

X officially allows X-rated content: Le Monde reports the social media platform owned by Elon Musk is now formally allowing users to post consensual adult content, formalizing a prior Twitter policy.

Shein, the online fashion titan, reportedly plans to file to go public in London this week. 

Reuters: Boeing, NASA target June 5 for Starliner's debut crew flight

TC: GM’s Cruise is testing robotaxis in Dallas again

Electric cars are suddenly becoming affordable: NYT reports more efficient manufacturing, falling battery costs and intense competition are lowering sticker prices for battery-powered models to within striking distance of gasoline cars.

How billionaires bought 70% of Detroit’s offices and transformed the city: Dan Gilbert, the Fords and Ilitches have taken over much of the city, filling buildings with workers and luring young residents back. Bloomberg

*** Culture ***

Centre Pompidou finally turns its attention to comics: With 'Comics on Every Floor,' five simultaneous exhibitions featuring graphic novels, manga and comics celebrate a long-neglected art form in Paris. Le Monde

A century after his death Franz Kafka is still in the zeitgeist: From TikTok to TV to new tomes, the author continues to inspire writers and readers. Economist

*** Sport ***

Mbappé officially confirmed to join Real Madrid: Le Monde reports the Spanish club announced on Monday that the PSG striker would wear their colors for the next five years. Mbappé, currently preparing for Euro 2024, will have to find his footing at a global institution.

How embracing technology will continue to transform NFL officiating: The league is close to using an electronic system for measuring first downs and will expand the use of instant replay as an officiating tool in 2024. WP

Russia is trying to disrupt 2024 Paris Olympics, Microsoft says: WP reports French President Emmanuel Macron had previously accused Russia of targeting the Olympic Games, drawing a denial from the Kremlin.


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal