Happy Monday.
To be ITK, know this:
She’s going (as predicted on July 24): Speaker Nancy Pelosi will meet Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan on Wednesday - it seems like a 10:30 am ET arrival is possible.
@W7VOA: #Taiwan media reporting @SpeakerPelosi is expected to arrive at Taipei Songshan Airport at 22:30 on Tuesday, and after taking a #COVID19 test there, she'll overnight at the @GrandHyattTPE and meet with @iingwen at 08:00 on Wednesday.
@JChengWSJ: Nancy Pelosi is planning to visit Taiwan, with meetings set with government officials on the self-ruled island that China claims as its own, says a person familiar with the matter, raising the prospect of increased US-China tensions.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction: Issac Newton is a geopolitical strategist. Let’s go back to the start of the year and the Beijing Splinter Olympics. On February 4, China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership: Six months later, Speaker Pelosi is planning a visit to Taiwan. Newton’s Third Law of Motion as seen in geopolitics.
"Xi Jinping has long vowed to answer any challenge to China’s claim to Taiwan. But current economic and political forces may make him unlikely to court a crisis." -- @ChuBailiang
Aspirational is not the same as operational: The PLA has had no major combat experience since 1979.
Read this: The great fall of China - Ian Williams
"In the eyes of many Chinese people, the party’s legitimacy lies in its ability to deliver growth and stability — and both are now under strain"
"A challenge for the West is that a China past its peak may also be a more dangerous and unpredictable China."
US policy elites on China: Bonnie Glaser and Zack Cooper in the NYT: “Nancy Pelosi’s trip to TaiwaniIs too dangerous.” Matthew Continetti in The Washington Free Beacon: “Pelosi must go.”
No agreement.
UK Conservative Party leadership race: Penny Mordaunt endorses Liz Truss as Conservative Party leader and hence the next UK PM. I suspect Rishi Sunak will drop out of the contest in the coming days.
Ukraine invasion and second-order effects: Germany is running out of time to avert an energy shortage that would be unprecedented for a developed nation.
Read this: Gas shortage: Will heating become a luxury in Germany? DW
+ The EU wants to reduce its gas consumption by at least 15%. Germany will probably have to save even more
Read this: French retailers prepare for power shortages - FT
+ Roast the chickens earlier and dim the lights
+ The government has asked a wide swath of sectors to make contingency plans for the winter
Read this: West eases efforts to restrict Russian oil trading as inflation and energy risks mount - FT
+ Plan to shut Moscow out of maritime insurance market delayed
Read this: Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine - CNN
"The downside of gold is that it's physical and a lot more cumbersome to use than international wire transfers but the flip side is that it's much harder if not impossible to freeze or seize." -- Daniel McDowell, a sanctions specialist and adjunct professor at Syracuse University
Ferrari aims to start selling a fully electric vehicle in 2025.
Read this: The problem with Facebook - om.co
"It’s become pretty clear that the addiction-engagement loop perfected by Facebook without zero understanding of the consequences will not go away." -- @om
Read this: The microchip era is giving way to the megachip age - WSJ
"In short: chip sprawl is just getting started." -- @mims
Read this: The next youth sports arms race - WP
Nearly 60 percent of the country’s youth play organized sports, according to some estimates. Families spend more than a combined $30 billion per year on their kids to participate
The youth sports industry grew by a reported 55 percent from 2010 to 2017 and is worth an estimated $19 billion — more than the revenue of the NFL or NBA
Not every Amazon idea is good: For example, a weekend WP headline: Move over, ‘National Landing’ — Amazon HQ2’s neighborhood tries ‘NaLa’ Seems like the people name the neighborhood, not an MNC.
US political elites on third parties: David Jolly, Christine Todd Whitman, and Andrew Yang in WP: “Most third parties have failed. Here’s why ours won’t.” Jamelle Bouie in NYT: “Why Andrew Yang’s New Third Party Is Bound to Fail”
No agreement.
Brigadoon Monthly Call: Sid Mashburn, Founder + Designer @ Sid Mashburn, will be the special guest and lead a discussion for the Brigadoon Monthly Call on Wednesday - August 17 @ 2:00 pm ET. Get your tix here: thebrigadoon.com/events
Watch - Kelly Slater: Lost Tapes gives fans the rare opportunity to witness never-before-seen footage of the best surfer on the planet." Current episodes here.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
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