*** Ross Rant ***
I predicted the Trump-Xi meeting would look like this. Now watch what happens next.
Markets don't lie. They don't care about Team Trump's narrative.
While Trump rated his meeting with Xi Jinping "12 on a scale of 1 to 10," markets delivered their own verdict: US stock futures barely moved. China's CSI 300 Index closed down 0.8%. That muted response tells you everything you need to know about what actually happened in those 90 minutes in Busan, South Korea.
The most telling aspect of the Trump-Xi meeting is the one-year timeframe. Both leaders are explicitly acknowledging that this truce is temporary. And markets, having seen this movie before, aren't buying the happy ending.
Ninety minutes to manage a superpower rivalry
Let's start with a number that should shock everyone: 90 minutes.
That's how long Trump and Xi met to address the world's most consequential economic relationship. Factor in translation, pleasantries, and opening remarks (Xi's comment that China's development goes "hand in hand with your vision to make America great again"), and you're looking at perhaps 45 minutes of substantive discussion.
Forty-five minutes to manage technology competition, rare-earth dependencies, trade imbalances, the future of the global economy, and China's "no limits" relationship with Russia.
The brevity isn't a talking point—it's the whole story.
This meeting wasn't a negotiation to resolve fundamental tensions. It was a carefully choreographed exercise in conflict management, with both sides achieving exactly what they needed while avoiding anything that might require actual structural change.
What China achieved
Here's where conventional analysis gets it wrong. Yes, China agreed to resume soybean purchases and suspend the draconian rare-earth export restrictions announced on October 9th. Team Trump's messaging and global news headlines framed these as concessions.
But look at what China extracted in return: US tariffs dropped from 57% to 47%. Technology export restrictions that were under consideration got postponed, not eliminated. Port fees on the Chinese maritime and logistics industries are suspended for a year. And most importantly, Beijing maintained the April licensing regime for rare earths—the opaque system that frustrates American manufacturers and keeps control firmly in Chinese hands.
Xi didn't surrender strategic advantages. He made tactical retreats while extracting meaningful US concessions on issues that matter more to China's long-term positioning.
The rare-earth gambit earlier this year—cutting off magnet exports, forcing US auto plant shutdowns, triggering bond market turbulence—was never just about leverage in one negotiation. It was a demonstration. Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize supply chains more aggressively than during Trump's first term. They watched Washington's reaction, gauged America's tolerance for pain, and concluded they could press harder.
The message was unmistakable: China has demonstrated its capacity to retaliate. Washington would do well to remember it.
TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out
Taiwan wasn't discussed. Neither were trade imbalances. Or Chinese industrial subsidies. Or intellectual property theft. Or the structural competition for technological supremacy that defines this rivalry.
I've worked on trade negotiations and global politics for two decades, and here's a pro-tip: what's excluded often matters more than what's included. These omissions weren't failures of diplomacy—they were conscious choices acknowledging that core conflicts remain unresolvable.
China hawks in Washington can be relieved that Trump didn't grant China access to Nvidia's flagship AI chips or soften the US commitment to Taiwan. But let's not pretend that avoiding disastrous outcomes is the same as achieving positive ones.
As Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously analyzed Chinese politics at the CIA, noted in a New York Times article: "I think it's an approach that can safely be described as tactics without a strategy." China, by contrast, has a clear long-term strategy—namely, its recently announced five-year plan, which focuses on state-directed manufacturing and technology investments.
What markets already know
The lack of market enthusiasm tells you sophisticated investors understand something the headlines miss: "We've heard this playbook before—optimistic tone, little follow-through."
Markets wanted a concrete joint statement. They wanted structural commitments. Instead, they got a handshake, diplomatic pleasantries, and a one-year timeframe that explicitly acknowledges the temporary nature of this truce.
Even after the 10-point tariff reduction, the effective US rate on Chinese goods remains above 40%—vastly higher than the roughly 3% historical norm. Calling this "normalization" requires selective amnesia about what normal actually looked like.
The CSI 300's 0.8% decline in closing is particularly revealing. Chinese investors, despite their government securing meaningful concessions, recognized that this doesn't change the fundamental trajectory. Strategic decoupling continues—just at a more managed pace.
Strategic decoupling
Let me be precise about terminology, because the distinction matters enormously.
We're not seeing full decoupling—the complete separation of the world's two largest economies. That would be economically catastrophic and politically unsustainable for both sides.
We're seeing strategic decoupling: the deliberate reduction of dependencies in areas deemed critical to national security and technological competitiveness. Semiconductors. Rare earths. AI. Quantum computing. Advanced manufacturing.
As Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital wrote in a note to clients: "Make no mistake, the two countries are drifting apart and are frantically building their own autonomous economic ecosystems."
The outcome from this meeting doesn't reverse that drift. It acknowledges it while establishing guardrails to prevent the drift from becoming a crash.
What this means for your business
If you're a CEO, supply chain executive, or board member, here's my direct advice: the tariff reductions and supply chain normalization are real and welcome. Use them. But don't mistake a one-year truce for a strategic realignment.
Three specific actions
First, accelerate supply chain diversification. China demonstrated in April that it will use economic weapons more aggressively. The rare-earth licensing regime remains in place. American companies are already continuing to seek non-Chinese sources despite this deal. Follow their lead.
Second, the price of volatility returns within 12 months. The one-year timeframe isn't arbitrary—it's both sides buying time to reduce strategic dependencies. When this expires in late 2026, the landscape will be different because both sides will have used the time strategically. Trump's mercurial nature and America's 2026 midterm elections add additional unpredictability.
Third, watch actions over words. Does China actually place large-scale soybean orders, or is this another promise that fades? Do rare-earth exports genuinely normalize, or does the licensing regime continue creating bottlenecks? Does the US truly pause new technology restrictions? The implementation phase will reveal whether this has substance.
The 90-day test
Here are the specific signals I'm watching:
Within 90 days, will China follow through on its agricultural purchases and the US genuinely pause its planned tech restrictions, which suggests that both sides are committed to making this work—at least temporarily?
In April 2026, Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing. If this actually happens (and if Xi's reciprocal visit to Washington occurs), it creates diplomatic momentum harder to reverse than ad-hoc summits. State visits require comprehensive preparation, meticulous protocol, and significant political capital. Additionally, the American business community will have an extensive list of issues and pressure points to address to secure more Chinese market access.
The immediate aftermath saw Trump jet back to Washington for a Halloween party. Xi stayed in South Korea for the full APEC summit, engaging regional leaders. The optics matter: China positioning itself as the stable, reliable partner versus American transactional unpredictability. If Asian economies hedge away from US alignment, that's a strategic victory no tariff rollback can offset.
The reality check
Both leaders got what they needed, and they are both political athletes.
Trump secured visible wins to sell domestically—such as tariff reductions, soybean purchases, and cooperation on fentanyl. His "12 on a scale of 1 to 10" assessment reflects genuine satisfaction with the optics.
Xi achieved something more valuable: time and strategic positioning. Time to pursue semiconductor self-sufficiency. Space to focus on domestic economic challenges without external pressure. Control of critical supply chains despite tactical easing. And a framework for formal state visits that signals great power parity.
But for global businesses caught between these superpowers, the ugly reality persists: underlying conflicts remain unaddressed. Commerce will be rocky for years to come.
The fundamentals haven't changed. This remains the world's most complex, competitive relationship. What changed in Busan isn't the destination—it's the agreement to make the journey less chaotic for the next twelve months.
Markets understood this immediately. The sophisticated response wasn't pessimism—it was realism about what a 90-minute meeting can and cannot accomplish.
Bottom line
The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan succeeded at precisely what it was designed to do: establish guardrails for managed rivalry while avoiding mutually assured economic destruction. That's valuable in a relationship where the global economy, regional security, and technological leadership are serious issues.
But let's not confuse conflict management with conflict resolution. The technology competition continues. The trade imbalance persists. Taiwan remains unaddressed. China's support of Russia continues unchecked. Strategic decoupling accelerates.
The smart money is positioning for a world where these economies remain locked in long-term competition with just enough dialogue to prevent a crisis. That's the world we're navigating.
Markets called it correctly on day one. Everything else is just narrative, spin, and messaging.
-Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
Trump wants to restart nuclear testing: Trump made his comments after Russia conducted tests of nuclear-capable weapons, including its new Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon super torpedo.
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Bloomberg: Trump-Xi truce buys time in broader fight for dominance and leverage
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Straits Times: ‘Amazing’ Trump-Xi talks produce a pause in US-China trade war
Straits Times: US, China seal deal on rare earths; Trump says Xi meeting was a 12 on scale of 1 to 10
Trump-Xi meeting brings temporary lull to escalation between US and China: Le Monde reports that, for the first time since 2019, the American and Chinese presidents met in South Korea, amid threats that the US might resume nuclear testing. The meeting resulted in agreements on tariffs, rare earths, soybeans, and fentanyl.
The US-China trade truce is not ‘truly great’ Robert Burgess
Trump cuts tariffs on China after ‘truly great’ meeting with Xi: WP reports China’s leader agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth minerals for a year and buy more soybeans, Trump said after a meeting designed to calm trade tensions.
Pragmatism wins out over bluster as Trump meets President Xi: After six months of brinkmanship, the US president’s meeting put trade relations with China back to where they were before all the theatrics. The Times
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Trump and Xi flexed. Who won? The leaders share an affinity for great-power-style foreign policy. That’s working — for now. David Ignatius
Donald Trump’s learning that China is harder to crack: Although the US president described his meeting with Xi as amazing, it’s clear the nations are fighting a second Cold War. Gerard Baker
What Trump’s ‘12’ of a summit with Xi yielded: The trade war truce is welcome — and buys the US time. WP-Editorial
Profiles in weakness at the Trump-Xi meeting: While most people regard the Sino-American rivalry as a new cold war between two world-bestriding giants, the truth is that both countries are tightly constrained. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping each sense the other side's vulnerabilities, which means they cannot hide their own. Harold James
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Bloomberg: China says it will work with the US on resolving TikTok issue
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Prince Andrew to be stripped of his royal title: NYT reports the extraordinary move caps his fall from grace over his ties to the convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.
Prince Andrew stripped of royal title by King Charles: WSJ reports Andrew’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, new revelations about longstanding abuse allegations force the king’s hand.
King Charles III strips brother Andrew of prince title over Epstein scandal: WP reports the move marks the latest setback for the embattled royal as the scandal over his ties to the convicted American sex offender Jeffrey Epstein continues to cast a long shadow.
Andrew stripped of ‘prince’ title and will leave Royal Lodge: The Times reports the disgraced former Duke of York will be known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Buckingham Palace has announced.
Zelensky is winning Trump voters over: Polling shows Ukraine re-emerging as a Republican priority. Steven Moore + Colby Barrett
Why funding Ukraine is a giant opportunity for Europe: The bill will be huge. It is also a historic bargain. Economist
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Al Qaeda is on the brink of taking over a country: WSJ reports the US has warned American citizens to leave Mali immediately.
Sudan: In el-Fasher, 'we are witnessing mass atrocities through our screens': Le Monde reports massacres, which have been filmed and shared on social media, have taken place in the capital of North Darfur since the city was seized by the Rapid Support Forces, led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo.
AFP: UN security council condemns El-Fasher 'atrocities' in Sudan as RSF advances
Tanzania seeks to restore calm after election unrest: DW reports the Tanzanian government deployed the military and ordered a curfew in its largest city after violence broke out on election day. Can the government reclaim Tanzania's image as a peaceful, stable nation?
Madagascar's new government faces scrutiny from Gen Z: Le Monde reports that President Michaël Randrianirina announced the 28 members of the government on Tuesday, October 28. Opposition leaders to the ousted regime, newcomers, and technocrats now have 60 days to deliver results.
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Cocaine worth $1.8 billion seized in Brazil risks angering Trump: Bloomberg reports drug trafficking on oil and soy vessels is surging as industrialization transforms the once-remote region.
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Argentina backs US embargo on Cuba, breaking with decades of policy: BAT reports United Nations vote marks a diplomatic turn from historic position and distances Argentina from broad international consensus opposing Washington’s sanctions.
Carney to meet with Xi as he seeks to offset damage from US tariffs: G+M reports Friday’s meeting at the APEC summit could prove consequential for both countries.
'Non-interventionist' Trump flexes muscles in Latin America: BAT reports US president has intervened directly to weaken leftists in Colombia and Brazil, while supporting Argentina. He has also put Washington on a war footing in the Caribbean, raising speculation he will forcefully depose Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
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Democrats condemn Trump administration for secrecy on boat strikes: NYT reports Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) said the administration’s decision to hold a Republicans-only briefing on the campaign was “corrosive to our democracy.”
Politico: Rubio says White House is ready to help fund Cuba’s hurricane recovery
Politico: Senate rejects Trump’s global tariffs, the final vote in a series of rebukes
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Farm-state Republicans finally reach their breaking point: Politico reports President Donald Trump's plan to import beef from Argentina has unleashed a wave of protest from GOP loyalists.
On tariffs, the Supreme Court can’t do what Congress won’t: The forthcoming ruling on Trump’s import duties will not stop him resorting to other methods. Alan Beattie
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The shutdown pressure cooker: A month in to the federal government’s closure, temperatures are rising for both sides—and something may be about to give. Kimberley A. Strassel
CNN: ‘The stress is just always there,’ as thousands of FAA workers go without paycheck
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New York’s golden handcuffs: Why the city has a special hold on the rich: Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins the mayorship. Bloomberg
NJ-GOV: A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Mikie Sherrill (D) leading Jack Ciattarelli (R) in the governor’s race, 51% to 43%.
NY-GOV: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) has built out an extensive political team as she prepares to launch a 2026 campaign for New York governor in November, Axios reports.
‘The View’ sets Marjorie Taylor Greene as guest after co-hosts call for more Republicans on the show: The Wrap reports the Republican congresswoman will visit the ABC talk show on Tuesday.
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The risky movement to make America nuclear again: A Silicon Valley startup called Oklo is leading the charge to bring nuclear power back to the US with small reactors. Its backers have wealth and political connections that could undermine nuclear safety. Bloomberg
Google v Microsoft: The battle of AI business models: The search giant’s vertically integrated approach is beginning to pay off. Economist
AI spending is helping prop up the economy. Now it’s getting stronger. WP reports Google, Meta, and Microsoft will invest billions more on infrastructure, including data centers, expanding a boom that is driving US economic growth.
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Detroit News: Massive OpenAI data center planned for farmland near Ann Arbor
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OpenAI’s chairman is thinking a lot about bubbles right now: Bret Taylor, who helped shape Google and Facebook and now runs a $10 billion AI customer service startup, thinks Silicon Valley will be just fine. Bloomberg
Delaware attorney-general warns of legal action if OpenAI fails to act in public interest: Sam Altman’s concessions to win approval from US officials expose his company to litigation and non-profit oversight. FT
It’s time to build the intention economy online: Tim Berners-Lee believes AI offers a chance to reset to a system that serves individuals’ needs and privacy. John Thornhill
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Amazon shares surge as AI boom drives cloud growth: AFP reports Amazon's share price skyrocketed by more than ten percent on Thursday after the online retail behemoth reported better than expected earnings, powered by surging demand for its cloud computing services.
Amazon rebounds as AI demand powers bumper cloud unit sales: FT reports shares jump after ecommerce giant says web services division is growing at fastest pace in three years.
Apple’s iPhones fuel record sales and profit: NYT reports the company’s revenue rose to above $100 billion in the quarter for the first time, and profit soared 86 percent.
Apple predicts holiday boom in iPhone sales: FT reports the tech giant reports record annual profits as smartphone sales and services income pick up.
Airbnb has shaped the idea that everything can be monetized. It's a logic of constant optimization: In Paris, about one-third of the listings available on Airbnb have been removed from the 'permanent' housing market, which contributes to the housing crisis in the French capital. Le Monde
Porsche’s warning lights are flashing: The carmaker’s new CEO will confront three big challenges. Economist
Bloomberg: MTV pays ‘Ridiculousness’ star Rob Dyrdek at least $32 million a year
+ Rob Dyrdek's show Ridiculousness is set to air for 12 straight hours on Friday, with episodes spanning season seven to 45.
+ MTV pays Dyrdek at least $32.5 million a year for its typical 336-episode-per-year slate, according to court documents.
+ Dyrdek's pay includes bonuses, a $21,000-per-episode executive producer fee, and an escalating $61,000-per-episode on-camera fee, which could rise to as much as $101,000 near the end of the current agreement.
France arrests five new suspects in Louvre heist probe, says prosecutor: Le Monde reports the five detentions took place on Wednesday in and around Paris, particularly in Seine-Saint-Denis, a department just outside the French capital.
Delevingne sisters face wrath of champagne makers over prosecco ads: The Times reports all champagne is sparkling wine, but not all sparkling wine is champagne, as any connoisseur will tell you. The champagne industry body has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Della Vite Prosecco, founded by the celebrity sisters Cara, Poppy, and Chloe Delevingne, over their marketing campaign for their vegan prosecco, which it claims is “exploiting” the reputation of champagne.
Michigan's 10-cent beverage bottle and can deposit program is on the decline. Here's why. Detroit Free Press
Bloomberg: Shift in drinking habits wipes $830 billion off alcohol stocks
+ Shares of the world’s top listed beer, wine, and spirits makers have shed a combined $830 billion in a little more than four years as the industry grapples with monumental change.
+ Shifting drinking patterns and rising health concerns have hit earnings, compounded by US tariffs, the impact of buoyant interest rates on consumer spending, and even elevated commodity prices.
+ The result is a wave of pressure facing companies behind some of the world’s most popular drinks that has left them adrift from the record rally in global equities.
Alison Roman built the grocery store of her dreams. We went to see it. First Bloom has homemade broth, a wall of pasta, and Haribo gummies. You have to plan a Catskills road trip to get there. WP
Is VistaVision really worth the hassle? These ambitious filmmakers think so. Paul Thomas Anderson and Yorgos Lanthimos are among those reviving a lush, wide-screen format that died more than 60 years ago. WP
Beyond words: '67' crowned 'word of the year': AFP reports a double-digit combination set the social media sphere ablaze among teens in 2025, leaving parents and teachers befuddled -- and now it has officially been crowned Dictionary.com's "Word of the Year": 67.
Toronto Star: Blue Jays one win away from World Series title
The Dodgers pledged to ‘ruin’ the World Series. Now they’re one game from losing it. They have a $350 million payroll, the world’s best player, crazy depth, and are frequently condemned for “ruining” baseball. But if you can’t hit the baseball, you’re in trouble. Jason Gay
LSU needs a new football coach. The governor wants Trump to make the pick. WSJ reports in an address from the Louisiana state capitol, Gov. Jeff Landry asked for the president’s help in solving a statewide emergency: finding a new head coach for the Tigers.
Detroit Free Press: Kelvin Sheppard to LSU? Detroit Lions DC asked about interest in coaching at alma mater
It’s the best offense in the NFL—and nobody saw it coming: When the Indianapolis Colts signed Daniel Jones as quarterback, no one was expecting fireworks. But somehow they have combined to form the most efficient offense of the 21st century. WSJ
Detroit News: Aidan Hutchinson 'super grateful' for extension, ready to make Super Bowl push with Lions
How sports gambling took over prediction markets in the US: Open interest in Kalshi sports contracts has surged past any other category as lawsuits threaten operations. FT
Betting scandal involving referees rocks Turkish football: DW reports Turkish football has been hit by a major betting scandal. More than 150 referees are accused of betting on matches — including officials from the top-flight Super Lig.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
