*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's tariff gambit faces Supreme Court reckoning
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments yesterday on what may prove to be one of the most consequential cases of its term—and President Donald Trump's legal foundation for tariffs appears to be losing.
During contentious questioning on Wednesday, justices across the ideological spectrum expressed deep skepticism about the administration's claim that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grants the president unilateral authority to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of nations.
Both conservative and liberal justices sharply challenged Solicitor General D. John Sauer's defense of the reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs that have reshaped global trade flows since Trump's return to office.
Lower courts have already ruled against the administration, finding that Trump exceeded his statutory authority by using an emergency powers law designed for national security crises to implement what amounts to a wholesale restructuring of American trade policy. The presence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the courtroom underscored the administration's recognition of the stakes involved.
The legal challenge strikes at the constitutional separation of powers between Congress and the executive branch.
Critics argue that Trump has usurped Congress's exclusive authority to levy taxes and regulate international commerce-a fundamental principle embedded in Article I of the Constitution. The administration's defense rests on an expansive interpretation of the IEEPA that would allow any president to unilaterally reshape trade relationships by declaring an economic emergency.
If the justices reject this reasoning, as Wednesday's arguments suggest, the decision would not invalidate specific tariff measures; it would fundamentally constrain presidential power over trade policy for generations to come. The Court's apparent skepticism suggests that even Trump-appointed justices may be reluctant to endorse such a dramatic expansion of executive authority, particularly when it directly conflicts with Congress's enumerated powers.
For business leaders, the implications extend far beyond abstract constitutional theory.
Corporate America is in a state where it needs to adapt supply chains, renegotiate contracts, and restructure operations to accommodate tariff regimes that might be illegal. This regulatory uncertainty has the most chilling impact on business. Not knowing the rules and having the rules change on a whim is not how business should operate.
Even a favorable Supreme Court ruling against the administration would create even more chaos in global trade relationships while simultaneously raising thorny questions about the hundreds of billions of dollars already collected under these tariffs.
Companies that paid these duties may seek refunds, creating a fiscal nightmare for the Treasury and potentially resulting in windfalls for importers. More fundamentally, the uncertainty surrounding tariff policy makes long-term capital allocation decisions nearly impossible. CEOs cannot confidently invest in new facilities, negotiate multi-year supply agreements, or develop market entry strategies when the basic framework of trade policy hangs in judicial limbo.
The strategic implications for corporate planning are equally troubling.
If the Court strikes down the tariffs, Trump will likely seek alternative legal mechanisms to maintain his protectionist agenda, potentially triggering new rounds of litigation and policy uncertainty. Congress could theoretically pass legislation explicitly authorizing tariffs, but the political dynamics make such action unlikely in a divided and slothful government.
Meanwhile, America's trading partners face their own dilemma: should they negotiate with an administration whose trade policies may be subject to judicial invalidation, or should they wait for legal clarity while their exporters suffer? This uncertainty poisons the well for serious trade negotiations and encourages partners to hedge by diversifying away from American markets.
The business community now confronts a period of maximum ambiguity precisely when global economic conditions demand strategic clarity.
Companies that absorbed tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers made balance sheet commitments based on policies that may be subject to change. Financial models built on current tariff structures could require wholesale revision.
The only certainty is uncertainty—and that represents perhaps the most corrosive force in modern business planning. Markets can adapt to almost any policy regime, but they cannot efficiently allocate capital when fundamental rules remain subject to judicial nullification. Wednesday's Supreme Court arguments suggest American business may be entering precisely such a period, with implications that will reverberate through boardrooms and balance sheets for years to come.
It would be helpful if Congress and the administration remembered that the business of America is business, and when a company is unaware of the rules and faces regulatory uncertainty, no one benefits.
-Marc
*** Caracal Daily ***
CNBC: Supreme Court justices appear skeptical that Trump tariffs are legal
+ Supreme Court justices appeared deeply skeptical about the legality of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump against most of the world’s nations.
+ Conservative and liberal justices sharply questioned Solicitor General D. John Sauer about the justification of the tariffs, which critics say infringe on the power of Congress to tax.
+ Lower courts say Trump lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs on imports from Canada, China, Mexico, and other trade partners.
+ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attended the arguments.
Supreme Court appears skeptical of legality of most of Trump’s tariffs: The court heard arguments on one of the most important cases of its term, testing whether the president has authority to impose wide-ranging tariffs. WP
Key justices cast a skeptical eye on Trump’s tariffs: The Supreme Court is considering whether the president acted legally when he used a 1977 emergency statute to impose tariffs on scores of countries. NYT
Supreme Court confronts Trump’s power to disrupt world trade: In a high-stakes legal showdown, the Supreme Court will consider arguments that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority with many of the sweeping tariffs he has imposed on goods from around the world. Bloomberg
Supreme Court’s skepticism on Trump tariffs means uncertainty reigns Bloomberg
Trump’s tough day at Supreme Court puts tariffs in jeopardy: The prospect of a loss by the administration raises questions about the president’s alternatives—and what happens to money that has already been collected. WSJ
Donald Trump’s tariffs could soon be toast: A majority of the justices seem skeptical of Mr Trump’s trade war. Economist
A justice-by-justice breakdown on Trump’s tariffs: The president needs five votes to win. The math looks challenging. WSJ
Why it will be hard for five justices to bless Trump’s tariffs Jack Goldsmith + John Guida
Putin paves way to resume nuclear testing as tensions flare with Trump: WSJ reports the Russian leader said Moscow could return to nuclear testing if the US begins testing its own arsenal.
Putin prepares for first nuclear detonation tests since Cold War: The Times reports Russian president says controlled explosions could be carried out in response to President Trump’s announcement that the US is to resume its own tests.
Russia’s new war grifters—‘black widows’ duping soldiers into marriage: WSJ reports authorities say women are marrying servicemen in an attempt to get the death payouts that go to their families.
Norway may use wealth fund to back €100bn EU war loan to Ukraine: The Times reports Oslo could unlock fresh funding for Kyiv by pledging a slice of its national investment fund, the largest in the world, as collateral.
Switzerland is crossing the crypto rubicon: Can the country replicate its culture of trust in an era that thrives on code and decentralisation? Mercedes Ruehl
Elections in India’s poorest state put Modi’s party to the test: WP reports voting in the eastern state of Bihar falls at a tense time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces growing domestic criticism and economic pressure from Washington.
Analysis: Xi Jinping eschews 'wolf warrior' diplomacy amid economic woes: Face-off with Trump in South Korea ends in a draw at best, not a Xi victory. Nikkei
Japan’s adventures in Trump’s irrational-rational land: A shiny Ford pick-up truck has become the symbol of Sanae Takaichi’s diplomatic dance with the US. Leo Lewis
End of the line: How Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled: Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance. FT
Brazil is developing a weapon for trade wars: Fertilizer in the Amazon: WSJ reports a planned $2.5 billion potash mine in the rainforest is billed as key to Brazil’s expanding agricultural exports and to the economic security of the indigenous population.
Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso freely: Libertarian president vows to double down on transformation of country’s economy. FT
Why Latin America can’t quit oil and gas: As COP30 approaches, Brazil and Colombia offer competing visions of a ‘just energy transition’ for developing countries. FT
Mexico’s president presses charges against man who groped her on the street: NYT reports a video of a man touching Mexico’s first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, shocked many Mexicans but did not surprise them. “It’s so common,” one woman said.
Trump expresses reservations over strikes in Venezuela to top aides: WSJ reports the Trump administration is still deciding whether to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro or extract concessions from him, according to US officials familiar with the deliberations.
How Venezuela’s military might respond to US attacks: Venezuela has an arsenal of Russian weapons and armed civilian cells that could mount a guerrilla war. But a coup against President Nicolás Maduro? Don’t count on it. NYT
Bloomberg: Trump to host Central Asia leaders as resources race heats up
+ President Donald Trump will host a summit with representatives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan at the White House.
+ The meeting follows recent efforts by other major powers to bolster ties with the region, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
+ Central Asian leaders have sought to diversify their economic and security relationships, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked massive Western sanctions against Moscow.
Elections show Trump’s edge on the economy slipping: NYT reports Democrats harnessed worries about the cost of living, with polls showing that Republicans’ longtime advantage on the economy has evaporated.
AP: Trump may become the face of economic discontent, a year after such worries helped him win big
+ Fresh off Democrats’ clean sweep of the 2025 off-year elections, President Donald Trump plans to refocus his political messaging on affordability, James Blair, the political director for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and the RNC, told Politico in an exclusive interview Wednesday.
What’s really concerning Republicans after Tuesday’s romp: Trump’s former political adviser told Politico in an exclusive interview that the president plans to talk a lot more about about the cost of living as we turn in the new year. Politico
Republicans point fingers after their losses, but not at Trump: Casting around for culprits, leaders in the party blamed their candidates, the government shutdown, and a weak economic message. NYT
Make no mistake: Trump is an albatross Jamelle Bouie
What Democratic victories tell us about America’s feelings on Trump: Independent and Latino voters swung to the Democrats on Tuesday, while Gavin Newsom showed the party can play the Republicans at their own game. The Times
Winners and losers from the 2025 election: It was not a good night for Trump or Republicans aligned with him. WP
What Democrats’ 2025 election sweep means for the midterms Ed Kilgore
Democrats risk drawing the wrong lessons from one good day: Moderate governors offer a better model than a charming socialist in New York. Economist
Pollsters missed the blue wave in New Jersey and Virginia: WSJ reports pollsters say they miscalculated who would show up to vote and a leftward shift by Latino voters.
Virginia Democrats won in a ‘doggone tsunami’ of an election. Today they’re preaching restraint. WP reports Virginia’s results were among a slew of blue victories around the country, and Democrats nationwide were assessing how to define the party’s future heading into the 2026 congressional midterms.
After ‘seismic’ win, New Jersey’s next governor says she has a mandate: NYT reports Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, defeated her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by 13 points as voter turnout surged.
How voters shifted in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York elections WP
The voters who propelled Mamdani to victory: More than one million voters cast their ballots for democratic socialist in New York City’s mayor’s race. WSJ
An emboldened Mamdani sheds conciliatory tone: NYT reports fresh from a stunning victory, Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect, said in an interview that his supporters wanted “a politics of consistency” and aggressive action, including on taxing the rich.
NYT: Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan says he has reached out to Zohran Mamdani
Mamdani and the new challenge for nation states: The metropolis and the heartland provoke each other into extremes, as the New York mayoral race shows. Janan Ganesh
Bloomberg: Mamdani’s ‘Trump-proofing NYC’ campaign sets up fight with White House
Trump vs. Mamdani: The showdown to come: President Trump has berated Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect of New York City, in public. But privately, Mr. Trump describes him as slick and a good talker. NYT
After Mamdani win, Schumer rejects charges he’s out of touch: NYT reports the top Senate Democrat was reluctant to say why he stayed on the sidelines of the mayoral race and denied that Zohran Mamdani’s victory reflected poorly on him.
Redistricting pressure heats up after Prop 50’s passage: ‘All Democratic elected officials should take note’: Politico reports Proposition 50 — once thought to be too risky — won big Tuesday. Now, Democrats are using its passage to push for more redraws.
Republicans swiftly file lawsuit in bid to block California’s new house maps: NYT reports Republicans asked a federal court to block newly approved maps in California that were designed to flip as many as five House seats for Democrats.
Redistricting battles, set off by Trump, have few parallels in US history: First, Texas redistricted. Other states followed, and now California. Some legal experts say it’s a crisis: “The wheels are coming off the car right now.” NYT
The anti-MAGA majority reemerges: Democrats won up and down the ballot yesterday, riding a backlash to Donald Trump’s second term. David A. Graham
Socialism or abundance? Two visions fight for the Democratic Party’s soul as it searches for purpose, direction, and a modicum of popularity. Simon van Zuylen-Wood
McDonald’s is struggling to hold on to its low-income customers: WP reports the company said there’s been a double-digit decline in traffic across the industry from lower-earning consumers.
Maine centrist Jared Golden to quit Congress, citing threats and dysfunction: WSJ reports Democratic lawmaker has criticized his party’s leadership over the government shutdown.
In the Trump era, Cheney’s brand of conservatism became obsolete: Dick Cheney was once the face of hard-line conservatism. Then hard-line conservatism changed. NYT
Government shutdown becomes longest in US history: WP reports it breaks the record of 34 days set in President Donald Trump’s first term.
Only Trump can reopen the government. But he’s not in the mood. Ed Kilgore
Reuters: US orders 10% flights cut at major US airports due to shutdown
FAA orders 10% cut in flights at several airports as shutdown drags on: WP reports the Trump administration says the move, which will affect 40 markets, is part of an effort to ease pressure on air traffic controllers.
Bloomberg: US to cut 10% of flights on shutdown, spare international routes
Democrats gird for longer shutdown fight after election sweep: Politico reports bipartisan negotiations continue, but pressure mounted Wednesday to push the 36-day shutdown even longer.
More arrests are made in alleged ISIS ‘pumpkin’ terrorist plot: WSJ reports two New Jersey men have been charged in connection with an alleged plan to attack LGBTQ bars on Halloween.
WSJ: Trader Jeff Yass is giving $100 million to ‘anti-woke’ University of Austin
Why Palantir’s success will outlast the AI exuberance: Its valuation looks bonkers. Its business isn’t. Economist
OpenAI isn’t yet working toward an IPO, CFO says: WSJ reports Sarah Friar says the AI giant could reach break-even quickly and would like government backstop on data-center investments.
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says China ‘will win’ AI race with US: CEO criticises western ‘cynicism’ while Beijing loosens regulations and cuts energy costs for data centres. FT
Why does so much new technology feel inspired by dystopian Sci-Fi movies? The industry keeps echoing ideas from bleak satires and cyberpunk stories as if they were exciting possibilities, not grim warnings. NYT Mag
Chatbots pose a risk to democracy: AI companies vowed not to support their use for voting choice so why are they recommending parties? Marietje Schaake
Pony ai, WeRide shares sink in Hong Kong debuts as robotaxi battle heats up: Nikkei reports in interview, Pony.ai CEO James Peng says vehicle costs 'will definitely drop further.'
Foxconn to deploy humanoid robots to make AI servers in US in months: CEO: Nikkei reports key Nvidia supplier also plans make the products at Sharp's old LCD plant in Japan.
China’s flying taxi leader aims to launch airport services within 3 years: FT reports EHang says its uncrewed electric aircraft could carry passengers into major Chinese cities for as little as $30.
Saga of Chinese trucking firm exposes US national security gaps: American officials thought they’d secured a deal with TuSimple to protect autonomous-driving technology. It didn’t work. Bloomberg
Sonos hires a Madison Avenue veteran to revive its bruised brand: WSJ reports Colleen DeCourcy joins as chief marketing officer of the audio equipment company, which is looking to claw back revenue and customers after a calamitous 2024.
France says it will ban Shein in row over sex dolls and weapons: FT reports government says it will suspend retailer’s online operations as company opens its first permanent shop in Paris.
Bill Gates’s climate rethinking is a gift to the world: Showing intellectual responsibility, Bill Gates admirably adjusts his stance on climate change. George Will
Cleaning up a coal-fired mess: China’s green-industrial complex makes deep decarbonisation possible, but far from inevitable. Economist
Detroit is back from the dead. But not everyone is feeling it CNN
‘Mr. Scorsese’ portrays a flawed and sympathetic genius: In a new documentary, Rebecca Miller takes the autobiographical echoes in Martin Scorsese’s work seriously — for better and worse. WP
At 89, she’s a top nutrition expert. Here’s what she eats in a day. Marion Nestle’s blunt nutrition advice, sharp criticism of food companies and popular books have made her one of the most recognizable names in nutrition. WP
The day the New York Jets became completely terrible—this time on purpose: WSJ reports the Jets have been a punchline for years. But after a pair of blockbuster midseason trades got rid of two of their best players, it’s clear they’re now actively trying to be bad.
FIFA to award new ‘peace prize’ in Washington next month: FT reports head of football governing body is close ally of Donald Trump, fuelling speculation that US president may be first recipient.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Daily | November 6
