Global Street Smarts.
Happy Saturday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
Prince William is more popular than his father, according to Ipsos polling. Some 62% of those polled said he was doing a good job, compared with the King’s 49%.
Is Keir Starmer ready for office? Britain’s Labour leader has made his party electable again. But there is more to do. Economist
Conservatives battle to prevent big losses in 2023 local elections: Next week’s local polls will be a dress rehearsal for the general election. The Times
+ The Conservatives’ metric for success in these elections will be how the results extrapolate to national vote share. In national polls Labour retain a healthy 15-point lead, albeit that has fallen from a consistent lead of around 20 points earlier this year. The Tories hope the local election results will show that Labour’s national lead is smaller than expected.
+ Sunak can also take solace from the fact that he and Starmer are consistently neck-and-neck on who voters think would make the best prime minister. He believes that if he can continue to right the ship in the wake of Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership, his personal poll ratings will translate to the national polls and he can win the next election.
+ The view in Downing Street is that Labour have peaked too soon and that by the end of the year their lead in the polls will be reduced to less than ten points.
+ “Political problems have political solutions, not policy solutions. It’s not about vision. Yes, Keir needs to be more focused about what he’s offering. But the PLP needs to be more disciplined, shut up and stop sounding off to The Times.”
PM: Rishi Sunak announces £2bn deal to sell missiles to Poland
US wires Ukraine with radiation sensors to detect nuclear blasts: NYT reports the federal National Nuclear Security Administration is setting up an advanced network that can verify an attacker’s identity.
Scholz’s new push for China port deal triggers row in German coalition: Politico reports while fears grow in the US and EU about Beijing’s influence, Germany’s chancellor is doubling down on a Hamburg port investment.
Germany’s China dilemma takes on a new urgency: The race is on in Berlin to reduce exposure to the country’s most important trading partner. Constanze Stelzenmüller
+ An eye-catching phrase in the UK’s most recent national strategy document — the awkwardly named “Integrated Review Refresh 2023” — notes that Western allies increasingly agree that “the prosperity and security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific are inextricably linked.”
+ Germany’s Beijing dilemma remains very real. China is its most important trading partner, ahead of the US. Berlin managed, with tremendous effort, to decouple from Russian fossil fuel in 2022. A full decoupling from China, in comparison, would amount to economic vivisection for Germany and indeed the rest of Europe.
AP: Japan ocean policy vows tougher security amid China threat
US Navy announces swap of Japan-based aircraft carriers in 2024: Nikkei reports USS George Washington to return to Yokosuka to replace the Ronald Reagan.
China is at the heart of Taiwan's presidential election: Eight months before the high stakes presidential and legislative elections in January 2024, the election campaign between the party of the outgoing president and the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, has begun. Le Monde
+ In Taiwan, the election campaign has already begun. While voters will not choose their new president and representatives until January 13, 2024, vehicles bearing images of the candidates are already crisscrossing the main streets of the capital.
+ At the end of her second term, president Tsai Ing-wen still enjoys a popularity rating that would make many politicians green with envy. Approximately 45% of Taiwanese are satisfied with her performance, but the constitution prohibits her from running for a third term.
How to spy on China: Beijing is a hard target—but better tech could make it easier. Peter Mattis
US Chamber of Commerce warns of rising risk of doing business in China: Washington lobby group says new scrutiny from Beijing has ‘dramatically’ increased uncertainty for Western groups. FT
China-US: Could the unprecedented ominous confrontation soon give way to talks between the two countries? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and several key US business figures believe that trade with China is one of the building blocks of the national economy. Alain Frachon
US considers landing bombers in South Korea: Air Force general: Nikkei reports Wilsbach eyes trilateral drills with Seoul, Tokyo to address Pyongyang provocations.
Yoon-Biden summit disappoints corporate South Korea: US makes no visible concessions for chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix. Nikkei
+ With South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix unable to make additional investments in their Chinese chip plants. The South Korean government had conveyed their concerns to Washington, and the two sides have been negotiating an easing of the provisions.
+ When Biden visited South Korea in May 2022, the company announced plans to spend several billion dollars in the U.S. On Tuesday, Hyundai said it and SK On would jointly spend $5 billion on a battery cell plant in the American state of Georgia.
+ Netflix said it will spend $2.5 billion in South Korea over four years, including on the creation of Korean dramas, films and other content. US specialty glass producer Corning announced a $1.5 billion investment in South Korean facilities to make glass for displays.
Turkey’s leader Erdogan cancels third day of election appearances: Al Jazeera reports Turkish President Recep Tayyip became ill during a TV interview with what Health Minister Fahrettin Koca later said was a ‘gastrointestinal infection.’
US arms warplanes with ‘bunker busting’ bombs in message to Iran: WSJ reports the Air Force’s A-10 Warthogs are carrying 250-pound precision-guided weapons in the Mideast.
Sudan: Neighbors' risky geopolitical game fed conflict: Egypt and the Gulf countries, which are now calling for de-escalation, nourished the ambitions of the two warring generals, Al-Burhan and Hemedti. Le Monde
US begins overland evacuation of American civilians from Sudan: NYT reports a bus convoy carrying about 300 US citizens followed a long route previously used by other nations and the UN. It was the first organized American evacuation effort.
CNN: Biden convenes top donors as 2024 fundraising ‘marathon’ starts
Biden vs Trump: The seniors rematch: Although the campaign is in its early stages, the 80-year-old president is running as if his 76-year-old predecessor will be his opponent. FT
Japanese reporters asked DeSantis about his slipping poll numbers. He got a tad snippy. Ishaan Tharoor
AP: DeSantis’ overseas trip overshadowed by fight with Disney
"I Fought The Mouse And The Mouse Won"
DeSantis a Midwesterner? Governor, allies tout ‘Rust Belt’ ties before possible 2024 run: Miami Herald reports as he prepares for a potential presidential campaign, the governor and allies have emphasized how DeSantis’ family roots extend beyond Florida and into Midwestern states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, a connection they argue both shapes his values and gives him a special understanding of the region.
Ron DeSantis is eyeing the first two weeks of June to formally jump into the 2024 presidential race.
Mike Pence is getting some political muscle: Politico reports the impending launch of a super PAC is the latest sign that Pence is on the verge of a presidential run.
Brace yourself for the 2024 deepfake election: No matter what happens with generative AI, its disruptive forces are already beginning to play a role in the fast-approaching US presidential race. Wired
Justice Samuel Alito: ‘This made us targets of assassination’: The author of the Dobbs abortion ruling answers attacks on the court’s ‘legitimacy.’ He says he thinks he knows who leaked the draft and is certain about the motive. WSJ
CNN: First Republic teeters on the edge — again
CNBC: First Republic most likely headed for FDIC receivership, sources say; shares drop 40%
Porsche wants customers to pay a 10%-15% premium for electric versions of its Cayenne and Macan SUV.
To be green, you need a lot of green.
The underbelly of electric vehicles: What goes into making EVs, where it comes from, and at what human cost. WP
The climate crisis gives sailing ships a second wind: Cargo vessels are some of the dirtiest vehicles in existence. Can a centuries-old technology help to clean them up? New Yorker
Europe to ChatGPT: Disclose your sources: Proposed legislation requires developers to list copyright material used in generative AI tools. WSJ
+ European Parliament negotiators plan to insert the new language, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, in a EU bill that is making its way toward passage, adding measures aimed at regulating a number of aspects of AI. The EU bill is at the forefront of a global push by policy makers to lay down rules for the development and use of AI.
A satellite phone that works anywhere? The US-China rivalry makes that harder. Both countries want to dominate the technology, and that makes having one system that works in both countries tricky. WSJ
Apple's Taiwan suppliers lead renewed pivot from China: As Sino-US tensions mount, Foxconn and Quanta turn to countries like Vietnam. Nikkei
+ Approved foreign direct investment in Vietnam climbed steadily, driven mainly by countries like South Korea and Japan, to $38 billion in 2019 -- up about 80% from a decade earlier.
+ Taiwanese contract manufacturers' plans to invest in Vietnam reflect their American customers' aversion to China risks.
+ Vietnam has built a business model of buying parts and intermediate goods from China to assemble into finished products for the US.
+ By 2028, 30% to 35% of all iPhones will be produced outside China, TrendForce predicts.
+ Over 90% of direct investment made by Taiwanese companies outside of Taiwan in the January-March quarter went to places other than mainland China.
+ Investments to Southeast Asia and India increased nearly five times on the year, even as those to China fell around 10%.
Celebs, politicians join Twitter rival Bluesky: Here’s how you can too Bloomberg
Hollywood is losing the battle for China: The rise of domestic cinema counters Western cultural influence. Economist
+ "There is more power in rock music, videos, blue jeans… than in the entire Red Army.” -- Régis Debray
+ Soft power is hard to measure, but data on viewing preferences can reveal which way it is trending. And our analysis of film reviews on Douban, a social network, suggests that in China’s domestic market, the scales are tipping in Xi’s favor.
+ China lets cinemas show just 34 foreign titles per year, users have rated thousands of foreign films, presumably using pirated versions.
AB InBev should defy the Bud Light culture war: A rightwing US boycott over the beer’s use of the transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney is mostly froth. John Gapper
+ "That is why Anheuser-Busch should stick with its marketing approach, rather than wringing its hands weakly. These efforts to broaden Bud Light’s reach made perfect sense, and it has since gained free publicity. The clamor does not change the fact that it needs more drinkers, whether pick-up drivers, urban couples or trans actresses. The rest is froth."
The Andy Warhol copyright case that could transform Generative AI: The US Supreme Court’s upcoming decision could shift the interpretation of fair use law—and all the people, and tools, that turn to it for protection. Wired
+ The US Copyright Office determined recently that art created solely by AI isn’t eligible for copyright protection. Artists can attempt to register works made with assistance from AI, but they must show significant “human authorship.” The office is also in the midst of an initiative to “examine the copyright law and policy issues raised by artificial intelligence (AI) technology.”
+ The fair use doctrine relies on four measures that judges consider when evaluating whether a work is “transformative” or simply a copy: the purpose and character of the work, the nature of the work, the amount taken from the original work, and the effect of the new work on a potential market.
+ “Copyright is meant to be an incentive for creation, and AIs don’t need that incentive. I think if you let AIs make copyright, it will be the end of copyright, because they will immediately make everything and copyright it.”
Good luck paying for those $10,000 obesity drugs everyone’s talking about: Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro can cause dramatic weight loss, and could create a market worth $150 billion a year. Bloomberg
Are we about to witness the comeback of Meghan Markle? Alexander Larman
+ Love her or loathe her, the Duchess of Sussex is likely to remain in the public consciousness for a considerable time to come.
Tom Ford bows out from eponymous brand after multibillion takeover deal: US fashion designer’s departure comes in wake of sale to cosmetics group Estée Lauder. FT
Billionaire Steve Cohen has a plan to become the "King of Queens": To win a coveted New York casino license, he’s ‘hired the best team that money can buy.’ Bloomberg
How to become a football powerhouse: Japan and Saudi Arabia test two different approaches. Economist
+ The gulf between European and Asian football is wide, but Japan and Saudi Arabia are determined to narrow it.
+ The national teams qualify regularly for World Cups and, at the most recent edition in Qatar, recorded famous wins. Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina, the eventual winners, in the group stage. Japan upset Germany and Spain, two other heavyweights.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
Caracal is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
Caracal believes that to be a world-class geopolitical business communicator, you need global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications.
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