Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
Insight | On a spy balloon.
I don't think Xi Jinping approved this, and I think this is a People's Liberation Army (PLA) inside hatchet job.
This spy balloon incident reminds me a lot of when Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited China in 2011, and the PLA revealed a new stealth jet.
The inside story of how the US shot down the Chinese balloon David Ignatius
+ Intelligence analysts distinguish between secrets and mysteries. The bizarre Chinese balloon overflight of the United States that ended with Saturday’s shoot-down over the Atlantic coast has elements of both.
+ An opportunity to “poke a stick in the eye” of the United States is always attractive for the bellicose regime of President Xi Jinping, especially now.
+ Why now? Intelligence analysts are considering the possibility that the Chinese military or hard-line elements within the leadership deliberately sought to sabotage the Blinken visit.
+ A final possibility is this was simply a mistaken chain of error — something that’s possible in any intelligence or military operation. “Sometimes the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing,” noted the Pentagon official.
+ Spycraft can’t resolve mysteries, the greatest of which today is the intention and potential outcome of Xi’s globe-girdling assertion of Chinese power.
So much for that big and lovely balloon in the sky Mitch Albom
+ At first blush, I felt the same thing. Then I thought, wait a minute. Maybe that’s what they want. Or maybe they’re testing us. And then I had to remind myself we are not at war with China. Or are we?
+ More and more experts believe the next huge showdown will begin with something technological. A power grid. A weapons system. Disabling defense shields. Microchips are the new mini-bombs.
+ Let me get this straight. We find out about this balloon. Our secretary of state says it’s an “irresponsible act” and a “clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law.” He cancels his major trip. We blow the thing out of the sky. Then we’re told it’s no big deal?
+ Which is it? What was it? What was it doing? Why was it so brazenly in our airspace? Can any of us, with any confidence, say that when it comes to China, we know where they stand and they know where we stand?
China balloon: Many questions about suspected spy in the sky AP
+ US officials said Saturday that similar Chinese balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the Trump administration and once that they know about earlier in the Biden administration.”
Pentagon reports past Chinese surveillance balloons near Florida, Texas: WP reports the Defense Department tells members of Congress about several previous incursions of US airspace as Republicans criticize Biden’s response.
+ @CraigCaplan: All-Senators classified briefing on China following the US shooting down of their surveillance balloon will be held on February 15th per Schumer.
+ “Taking it down over the Atlantic is sort of like tackling the quarterback after the game is over.” -- House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Turner (R-OH), on Meet the Press
Navy divers work to recover debris from Chinese spy balloon: NYT reports the effort off the coast of South Carolina is expected to take days. Navy and Coast Guard ships have been sent to the scene.
Biden brought down a Chinese spy balloon. But he hasn’t tanked bilateral ties: Biden and Xi can choose to climb an “escalation ladder” or turn the page on this incident not to worsen bilateral relations. Politico
+ Regardless of rampant political rhetoric about economic decoupling, the two countries are too interdependent to opt for a drastic downgrade in bilateral ties.
+ It’s not clear when Blinken will reschedule his trip. Whether Chinese officials agree to host him fairly soon could be a sign of how quickly they want to put the balloon incident behind them.
China must repair damage from its burst balloon: Their actions caused this diplomatic crisis. Now it’s up to Chinese leaders to take the first step to salvage ties with the US. Minxin Pei
+ The brouhaha shows exactly why the US and China must find some new equilibrium in their relationship.
+ If Chinese leaders bridle at such concessions, they should remember what the alternative might be. A Cold War parallel — the U-2 incident in May 1960 — is instructive.
+ The Berlin Wall, the defining symbol of the Cold War, went up 15 months after the U2 fiasco.
Bloomberg: China moves from contrite to confrontational over US balloon
+ Beijing trades barbs with Washington instead of holding talks.
+ Episode risks wasting a narrow window to improve US-China ties.
Diplomatic crisis escalates after US destroys Chinese spying balloon: A US fighter jet ended the flight of the surveillance aircraft over US airspace on February 5. The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the attack on 'a civilian unmanned airship.' Le Monde
Biden’s tense diplomatic dance with China has a long history WP
+ “Uppermost on President Biden’s mind when he thinks about China is the very real risk that he sees of an incident or accident that occurs because the Chinese have a misunderstanding about the situation and, in many cases, a misunderstanding about the United States.”
+ The incident is also a sharp reminder that one of Biden’s top priorities since taking office has been shifting American foreign policy toward confronting China, which he views as the biggest long-term threat to American interests.
+ Republicans, who sometimes appear divided in their opposition to Russia, are more unified in opposing China — sometimes criticizing Biden for not being tough enough, other times working with him.
China aids Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade data shows: Despite sanctions, Moscow equips its jet fighters, submarines, and soldiers with the help of Chinese companies. WSJ
+ The customs records show Chinese state-owned defense companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology and jet-fighter parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies.
+ While Russia has the capability to produce much of its basic military needs domestically, it relies heavily on imports for dual-use technology, such as semiconductors, that is essential for modern warfare.
Moscow, Tehran advance plans for Iranian-designed drone facility in Russia: WSJ reports Moscow and Tehran are moving ahead with plans to build a factory in Russia that could make at least 6,000 Iranian-designed drones for the Ukraine war, said officials from a country aligned with the US.
Russia’s technocrats keep funds flowing for Vladimir Putin’s war: But the economy is slowly being repurposed. Economist
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov will be replaced by the head of military intelligence as the country braces for a Russian offensive, a senior lawmaker from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party said.
What does an endgame look like in Ukraine? NATO and the West are sending more weapons to defend against Putin’s aggression. Whether it’s enough — or too little, too late — we just don’t know. Brooke Sample
+ For all of Putin’s miscalculations, China’s Xi Jinping hasn’t walked away from his relationship with Putin.
+ “It’s not because of any ideological or autocratic pact. There is no such thing. This is about pragmatism, self-interest and a larger concern for Beijing — the US.”
+ Put simply, Russia needs China, though the reverse isn’t true.
Ukraine war makes unexpected winner of Turkey’s Erdogan: The Turkish president has leveraged his closeness with Putin to expand his international influence and shore up Turkey’s faltering economy. WSJ
Reasons for Sweden's NATO membership deadlock: To overcome the opposition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Stockholm has tried everything, but in vain. Le Monde
+ This is not the first time Turkey has engaged in obstruction within NATO.
Here’s how Finland, Sweden, and NATO should deal with Erdogan: Hint: Wait until the Turkish elections pass in May. Then, if necessary, change the rules. Andreas Kluth
+ Geographically, culturally, historically, politically and strategically, Sweden and Finland nowadays think of themselves not as a union, but as a pair.
+ The Finns, who share an 800-mile border with Russia, are militarily strong on land, the Swedes at sea and in the air.
+ Together, they could secure — for each other and NATO — the Baltic Sea against a Russian attack, and help defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
+ In turn, most of the allies enthusiastically embraced them as the dynamic duo in the North. Not Erdogan. He spotted an opportunity to blackmail the entire alliance.
+ What makes Erdogan’s antics so scandalous is the geopolitical context.
+ What, then, should the Finns, Swedes and NATO do about this mess? First, they should wait out Turkey’s elections in May. Erdogan could be defeated for the presidency, or his political bloc lose parliament, or both.
The French are in a panic over le wokisme: The nation’s vehement rejection of identity politics made me recalibrate my own views about woke ideology. Thomas Chatterton Williams
+ The French have long prided themselves on having a system of government that doesn’t recognize racial or ethnic designations. The idea is to uphold a universal vision of what it means to be French, independent of race, ethnicity, and religion.
+ Even keeping official statistics on race has, since the Holocaust, been impermissible.
+ Recently, however, and to the alarm of many in the traditional French commentariat, American-style identity politics has piqued the interest of a new and more diverse generation.
+ France’s vehement reaction to wokeism has to do with the country’s complex relationship with America itself.
+ The unease with le wokisme in France, then, is shaped and heightened by the country’s distinctive history and self-perception—its legitimate fears of homegrown jihad and its concerns about domineering Yankee influence.
+ America and France are each being undermined by internal divisions—one by overemphasizing them, the other by denying them.
FT: France and Germany set to push back against US green tech poaching
Pope Francis joins Anglican, Presbyterian leaders in denouncing anti-gay laws: AFP reports Pope Francis, the head of the Anglican Communion, and the top Presbyterian minister together denounced the criminalization of homosexuality on Sunday and said gay people should be welcomed by their churches.
FT: Former Pakistan military ruler Pervez Musharraf dies
Mali expels human rights chief of UN peacekeeping mission: DW reports the ruling military junta accused the MINUSMA head of bias against the country. The decision comes after a UN Security Council briefing was critical of Mali.
UN peacekeeper killed in attack on helicopter in DR Congo: AFP reports a United Nations peacekeeper from South Africa was killed and another wounded in an attack on their helicopter in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Sunday, the organization said.
Africa: 'It would be too easy to see the hand of Moscow as the sole reason behind France's spectacular ouster': By continuing to exert influence, France has been complicit in the failures of independent African nations. Paris would benefit from seeing ongoing events as a new phase of decolonization. Philippe Bernard
+ As French soldiers are expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso, as France is booed in the streets and as Vladimir Putin has replaced Macron on T-shirts, it would be too easy to see the hand of Moscow as the sole reason behind France's spectacular ouster.
+ On a more fundamental level, many West Africans are turning their backs on France because they blame it for failing to restore security.
+ Yet this impotence is essentially the result of a flaw in France's analysis: The jihadist attacks in Sahelian countries have endured since the fall of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and have turned into an endogenous conflict.
+ Africa is not done reclaiming its sovereignty. For France, the objective should not be to beat its chest, but to change its frame of mind.
Chile forest fire toll rises, hundreds left homeless: AFP reports forest fires have killed 24 people, injured nearly 1,000, and destroyed 800 homes in five days as a blistering heat wave grips south-central Chile, authorities said Sunday.
Canadian province decriminalizes hard drugs: DW reports that the Canadian province of British Columbia has launched a pilot project to help decrease the number of overdoses and reduce the stigma surrounding drug use.
Classified-documents probe highlights Biden family’s deep ties to Penn: WSJ reports that long before the Penn Biden Center, the family, and the Ivy League school cultivated a close relationship that benefited both sides.
For Biden, a chance for a fresh start in a new era of divided government: The president plans to use his first State of the Union address since Republicans took control of the House to call for bipartisan cooperation. Neither he nor many others expect that to happen. NYT
Flexing his wins and eyeing a 2nd term, Biden will lay out contrasts with GOP in State of the Union: The annual speech will hit an array of issues but mainly will reflect the political reality of a divided Congress. Politico
Biden's State of the Union address will make his case for re-election in 2024: Biden will use the speech to reach more people and assure them that he’s enacted plans to make their daily commutes shorter and their prescription drug bills lower. NBC News
Few Americans are excited about a Biden-Trump rematch, Post-ABC poll finds: Most say they would feel dissatisfied or angry if either wins the general election. WP
+ At this early stage in the 2024 election cycle, Americans show little enthusiasm for a rematch between the two well-known yet unpopular leaders, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
+ Neither Biden nor Trump generates broad excitement within their own party, and most Americans overall say they would feel dissatisfied or angry if either wins the general election.
+ More than 6 in 10 Americans (62 percent) say they would be “dissatisfied” or “angry” if Biden were reelected in 2024, while 56 percent say the same about the prospect of Trump returning to the White House for a second time.
+ Many Republican elected officials blame Trump for the failure of the party to capture control of the Senate or win more competitive governor’s races and a larger House majority, primarily because of his support for flawed candidates and their embrace of his ideas
+ The 2024 election is not necessarily in the forefront of the minds of many people at this point.
+ In the GOP, Trump is weakest among higher-income Republicans and those with college degrees, with two-thirds of each group wanting the party to nominate someone other than Trump.
WP: Trump’s poll problem in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina
Taking aim at Trump, Koch network will back GOP primary candidates: The move by the alliance of conservative donors could provide an enormous boost to a Republican alternative to the former president. NYT
+ “The Republican Party is nominating bad candidates who are advocating for things that go against core American principles. And the American people are rejecting them."
+ "the loudest voice in each political party sets the tone for the entire election. In a presidential year, that’s the presidential candidate.”
Koch network to back alternative to Trump after sitting out recent primaries: The return of one of the biggest spenders in American politics to the presidential primary field poses a direct challenge to the former president’s comeback bid. WP
+ The network of donors and activist groups led by conservative billionaire Charles Koch will oppose Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination, mounting a direct challenge to the former president’s campaign to win back the White House.
+ “The best thing for the country would be to have a president in 2025 who represents a new chapter,” Emily Seidel, chief executive of the network’s flagship group, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), wrote in a memo released publicly on Sunday.
+ The network plans to endorse a single candidate by the end of this summer.
+ The memo indicated that AFP will get involved earlier and more aggressively in congressional races, in addition to the presidential primary.
+ “The American people have shown that they’re ready to move on, and so AFP will help them do that.”
Billionaire Charles Koch-backed group will push GOP to move past Donald Trump: Americans for Prosperity wants presidential candidate ‘who can win’ in 2024. WSJ
+ Of the 60 Black lawmakers elected to Congress this year, 30 now represent states or districts with a plurality of white voters, according to an Axios analysis.
Apple told investors that consumers are willing to pay up for the best iPhone they can get, signaling that even more ritzy models may be on the way.
Is copying art to make art plagiarism, or just artificial intelligence? Christopher Mims
+ Rutkowski’s distinctive style and choice of subject matter have made him among the most popular artists to copy using the kind of image-generating artificial-intelligence systems that have exploded in popularity in the past year.
+ Rutkowski’s name has become such a popular prompt in such AI art generators that he recently decided to join a federal lawsuit seeking class-action status against several of the companies involved.
+ What worried Rutkowski most was that art generated using his work threatened to bury his own original works in the places in which it mattered, on Google’s search index and in repositories of online art.
+ The algorithms that power generative AIs go one step further. Both kinds of AI require large sets of training data, but generative AI can actually synthesize that data to produce new content, not just recognize what already exists.
+ “This is not going away. As a society, we have to digest that all media is now training data, and any style—even a timbre in music—is going to be a non-protectable thing.”
+ The stakes here could be high. As its proponents argue, generative AI might be the next big thing in tech, defining whole industries for decades.
+ “AI right now is growing on the backs of artists, and I feel like my back was being used a lot.”
Hispanic craft brewers exand what it means to be a Mexican-style beer: Corn mash and innovative, flavorful adjuncts are culture in a bottle. Bloomberg
+ “It’s kind of tying it all together: artwork, branding, ingredients and adjuncts like hibiscus, passion fruit, piloncillo [Latin American brown sugar] and prickly pear. For us it’s like culture in a can.”
+ The most prevalent homage to Hispanic heritage is the rise in so-called Mexican-style lagers.
+ “Mexican-style” means the use of flaked corn (aka maize) to supplement or replace barley malt, resulting in a lighter body and slightly sweeter taste.
+ “In America, corn is always going to be cheaper and more plentiful than barley. And if you want to do local, as craft beer does, corn is going to be closer.”
Toyota targets the rich with new Century, Lexus models in Japan: Nikkei reports the automaker hopes to take on luxury heavyweights like Rolls-Royce and Bentley.
Memo to staff: Dress fabulously Robert Shrimsley
Five minutes that will make you love 21st-Century jazz: We’ve done a lot of listening back. So where is jazz today? Writers and musicians, including Sonny Rollins, Melanie Charles, and Terri Lyne Carrington, share their favorites from this millennium. NYT
Muck, mayhem, and ding-dongs with the locals — Clarkson’s Farm returns: Nick Rufford goes down to Diddly Squat to find out how Farmer Clarkson, Lisa, and Kaleb are coping. The Times
More killed by avalanches in Austrian Alps: DW reports several tourists and skiers have died this weekend in Austria due to avalanches. Authorities are warning of the dangers of skiing in the current weather.
+ At least eight people died this weekend in Austria due to avalanches in the country's west.
Adding more stones to the Swilcan Bridge at St. Andrews is a historically bad idea: The addition of a 'cobblestone helicopter pad' to the base of the St. Andrews landmark has Alex Miceli dumbfounded. SI
+ What are the laws in Scotland about disfiguring or maiming a 700-year-old plus architectural marvel?
+ The bridge is one of the wonders of the golf world; every player that has graced the links steps on the bridge and grabs a picture or two for posterity.
+ The bridge was originally used as a way for shepherds and their animals to traverse the Swilcan Burn to roam on what is now the 1st and 18th fairways.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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