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Blinken holds ‘candid’ talks with China’s Xi amid effort to ease tensions WP
+ On Blinken's two-day trip, he said he “sought to clarify any misperceptions about our approach.” He underscored that decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies would be “disastrous” given the $700 billion in trade between the two countries every year.
+ “We don’t want to decouple, we want to de-risk,” he said, noting US export controls on sensitive technologies to China such as advanced semiconductors.
+ Chinese state media, after having castigated Blinken as a meddling provocateur, cast the visit in a favorable light. Sunday’s talks had brought “positive expectations to the international community,” said an editorial in the Global Times, a nationalist tabloid affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party.
+ The talks are likely to pave the way for follow-on visits to China by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen — a visit sought by Beijing, which is hoping to boost investment amid an economic downturn — and potentially Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and climate envoy John F. Kerry.
+ President Biden on Saturday said he hoped to meet Xi in coming months to discuss the issues that divide the two.
+ Xi might attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in November in San Francisco, where he could meet with Biden.
+ Chinese officials emphasized that key sticking points remain unresolved, like US military assistance to Taiwan, which it considers a violation of its sovereignty, and US export controls on technology, measures it considers a sign of trying to keep China weak.
China's Xi asks US envoy Blinken to do more to stabilize ties: American secretary of state says sanctions to stay as security is priority. Nikkei
+ The visit is the first by a U.S. secretary of state since Blinken's predecessor Mike Pompeo went to China in 2018. A trip had been organized in February but was aborted after the detection of a Chinese spy balloon in American airspace.
+ There has been an increase in government-to-government meetings since February despite the balloon incident, Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told Nikkei Asia. "I wouldn't say things are warm. I would say they're a little warmer," Hart said.
Xi Jinping sees ‘progress’ in China-US ties at meeting with Antony Blinken: China’s leader hints at truce in acrimony between Beijing and Washington during secretary of state’s visit. FT
+ John Delury, a China expert at Yonsei University in Seoul, said the lack of substance in Blinken’s talks while in Beijing — there were no “big-ticket items” under negotiation other than to agree to talk — was a measure of the deterioration of the relationship.
+ “It is symptomatic of how bad the relationship has gotten that it’s an achievement to talk, that it is almost a sign of political courage to meet with your counterparts,” Delury said.
+ Xi told Blinken that China respected US interests and would not “challenge or replace the United States.”
+ Blinken argued the US was not trying to “contain” China or decouple from its economy but was taking targeted measures to withhold technology that could assist Chinese security-focused programs such as the development of nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles.
+ Analysts said the attempts to restart dialogue could help lay the ground for a face-to-face meeting between Xi and Biden during a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in the US in November.
Xi meets Blinken as US, China resume high-level engagement: Beijing and Washington took steps to halt the spiral in relations, though the two powers might have trouble keeping their global rivalry from swamping the tentative rapprochement. WSJ
+ Key incentives for China in engaging with the US are the Chinese economy’s shaky performance and the US’s hosting of an Asia-Pacific summit this November. The Chinese side is angling for a pomp-filled meeting between Xi and President Biden, according to Chinese and US officials.
+ Media reports about stepped-up Chinese eavesdropping and other activities in Cuba are adding further friction. Taiwan’s vice president, who is running to become president of the self-ruled island nation claimed by Beijing, is also expected to stop in the US in coming months, testing Beijing’s tolerance.
+ Blinken’s China visit was the first by a US cabinet member in more than four years.
+ Barring further setbacks, other senior US officials—including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry—are expected to visit Beijing in the coming months.
+ “Blinken’s visit to China is after all a positive step in the right direction of reducing tension and managing the risks in Sino-US relations,” said Victor Gao, an international-relations expert at China’s Soochow University. “The fact that he had a meeting with President Xi Jinping indicates that the heads of state of China and the US are serious about having a face-to-face meeting before the end of the year, which may reset the overall directions of the bilateral relations.”
+ Blinken said he also met with members of the US business community on Monday, many of whom expressed a desire to continue to grow their operations in China. He said a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies would be disastrous, pointing to record trade between the two last year, but said the U.S. would continue to take steps to make American supply chains more resilient and deny China technologies that threaten US national security.
China targets sea change in global diplomacy race with West: As Blinken calls, Beijing wields 'Xivilization' to promote China worldview. Nikkei
+ Compared to how China has acted in the past, "It's more sophisticated. It's more strategic, more long-term oriented," said Moritz Rudolf, a researcher and fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. "It's a vision that China's putting out on the table, while Western countries are currently in a sort of an identity crisis, figuring out how to deal with a lot of challenges ... in a complex world. "And then China just has an authoritarian answer to this."
+ Beijing's diplomatic push comes as Xi, now in his third five-year term, steps up efforts to deliver on a mission of rejuvenating the Chinese nation. Observers trace the ambitions of the world's second-largest economy back to the experience of colonial subjugation, what China calls the "century of humiliation," from 1839 to 1949.
Xi Jinping’s dream of a Chinese military-industrial complex: The president has promoted technocrats to key posts in a renewed push for one of his core policies. FT
+ Overlooked by many at the time was the rise of a new group of political leaders in the top echelons of power whose background diverges from the usual careers in provincial government or Communist party administration. Instead, they all have deep experience in China’s military-industrial complex.
+ Their swift advancement is part of Xi’s efforts to reinvigorate China’s long-running project of “military-civil fusion”, a policy that seeks to harness new technologies from the private sector for the benefit of the country’s rapidly modernising military.
+ More than a third of the Communist party’s 205-member Central Committee now have a background in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, according to a report by MacroPolo, the think-tank of the Paulson Institute in Chicago. That is a 35 per cent increase from the previous committee appointed five years before.
+ The implications could be profound. China’s potential adversaries in the west, already alarmed about the expansion of Chinese military capabilities, fear that the pace and breadth of military technology breakthroughs will step up a gear.
+ Within China, some experts see long-term risks as Xi reshapes policy towards an increased focus on security and away from economic growth, noting that a similar strategy was the ruin of the Soviet Union.
+ Others believe he is taking steps to reduce the chances of future opposition to his rule, given that many of the new appointees lack an entrenched power base within the party.
+ But Greg Levesque, co-founder of US military technology-focused consultancy Strider, says the combination of Xi’s personal policy oversight, increased spending and the latest senior party and government appointments reflects a “significant shift” in the use of military-civil fusion to address China’s security concerns.
+ “These are individuals who understand the defence industry nexus between the universities and the key state laboratories, the defence state-owned enterprises and the emerging tech companies,” he says. “I still don’t think people have woken up to it.”
+ There is now a “top-down directive” in place to expand the policy into “all domains of competition” with the US, broadening the scope from not just core weapons technologies but also to cyber, finance, space and maritime sectors, Levesque says.
+ According to Keyu Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook, Beijing believes that domestic Chinese development of a “vast majority” of technology will also help to fuel economic growth. “The bottom line is that the party’s legitimacy still rests with economic opportunities,” she says.
+ "The key metric that matters is no longer GDP growth but ‘nanometres’, or securing technologies"
+ Victor Shih, an associate professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California San Diego, believes the appointment of cadres from China’s military-industrial complex to key leadership positions might not be “purely” based on advancing the military-civil fusion policy.
New Chinese premier’s visit to Germany, France highlights strained relations with EU: AFP reports China’s new Premier Li Qiang is currently on a visit to Germany, his first trip abroad since taking office in March. With France lined up as the next stop on his agenda, Li’s Western European excursion is the subject of much speculation amid strained relations between China and the EU.
China's new premier visits Germany in first foreign trip: DW reports German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted Chinese Premier Li Qiang for dinner at the chancellery ahead of bilateral talks on Tuesday.
China’s rebound hits a wall, and there is ‘no quick fix’ to revive it: Policymakers and investors expected China’s economy to rev up again after Beijing abruptly dropped COVID precautions, but recent data shows alarming signs of a slowdown. NYT
+ Investment in China has stagnated this spring after a flurry of activity in late winter. Exports are shrinking. Fewer and fewer new housing projects are being started. Prices are falling. More than one in five young people is unemployed.
+ “Authorities risk being behind the curve in stimulating the economy, but there’s no quick fix,” said Louise Loo, an economist specializing in China in the Singapore office of Oxford Economics.
+ China’s economic weakness holds benefits and dangers for the global economy. Consumer and producer prices have fallen for the past four months in China, putting a brake on inflation in the West by pushing down the cost of imports from China.
+ “You can throw money on people but if they are not confident, they will not spend,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, the chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, a French bank.
+ Households are not alone in struggling to pay their debts — so are local governments, which has limited their ability to step up infrastructure spending.
Why Ukraine’s offensive will likely be a slow, costly grind: Kyiv and Moscow have spent months preparing for fighting along a vast front line. WSJ
The new right is on a roll in Europe: Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is among leaders enthusiastic about the ‘national conservatism’ seen in Britain. John Lloyd
+ National conservatism, rooted in homeland, family, Christian observance and sovereignty, has been part of British conservatism since its beginnings.
+ More than that, it now emerges as the operating system of the EU’s New Right, or hard-right, parties. Despite Brexit, British national conservatism paradoxically helps form the base of these European parties.
+ Many parties strongly support Christianity, though they fear it will disappear within a few decades. Meloni stresses her Catholicism and attachment to the late doctrinally conservative pope Benedict XVI.
BoJo: MPs approved by 354 votes to 7 the Privileges Committee’s report, which said Boris Johnson had deliberately misled parliament over partygate. He will now be banned from holding a former members’ pass.
UK energy: Labour says it will end the era of North Sea oil and gas exploration and help communities profit from clean power projects if it wins the next election.
World Bank woes Alan Moran
Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing: From technology to energy to capital markets and universities, the EU cannot compete with the US. Gideon Rachman
+ The US economy is now considerably richer and more dynamic than the EU or Britain — and the gap is growing. That will have an impact well beyond relative living standards.
+ Europe’s dependence on the US for technology, energy, capital and military protection is steadily undermining any aspirations the EU might have for “strategic autonomy.”
+ In 2008, the EU and the US economies were roughly the same size. But since the global financial crisis, their economic fortunes have dramatically diverged.
+ The aggregate figures are shocking. Underpinning them is a picture of a Europe that has fallen behind — sector by sector.
+ The European technology landscape is dominated by US firms such as Amazon, Microsoft and Apple. The seven largest tech firms in the world, by market capitalisation, are all American.
+ There are only two European companies in the top 20 — ASML and SAP. Whereas China has developed domestic tech giants of its own, European champions are often acquired by American companies.
+ Skype was bought by Microsoft in 2011; DeepMind was bought by Google in 2014. The development of AI is also likely to be dominated by American and Chinese firms.
+ In 1990, Europe made 44 percent of the world’s semiconductors. That figure is now 9 percent; compared with 12 percent for America.
+ Private capital is also much more readily available in the US.
+ Paul Achleitner, chair of the global advisory board at Deutsche Bank, says that Europe is now “almost totally dependent on US capital markets”
+ Unlike Europe, the US also has plentiful and cheap domestic supplies of energy. The shale revolution means that America is now the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe have soared.
+ Europe does outperform in “lifestyle” industries. Almost two-thirds of the world’s tourist arrivals are into Europe.
+ The luxury goods market is dominated by European companies.
+ Football, the world’s most popular sport, is dominated by European teams — although many of the biggest clubs are now owned by Middle Eastern, American or Asian investors.
+ \Europe’s dominance of lifestyle industries underlines that life in the old continent is still attractive for many. But perhaps that is part of the problem. Without a greater sense of threat, Europe may never summon the will to reverse its inexorable decline in power, influence and wealth.
Senators fight over Washington’s hottest runway: A debate in Congress over adding more flights, including long-distance routes, at Reagan National Airport has divided the airline industry and pitted senators against one another in a dispute that transcends party lines. WSJ
Air taxi maker races to serve Paris Olympics as sector struggles for funds: Reuters reports a year ahead of the Paris Olympics, flying taxi maker Volocopter wants to prove to executives at the Paris Airshow it is on track to ferry customers around the sporting showcase and take off globally.
Music companies are suing Twitter for $250 million: Twitter is one of the only major social media platforms that doesn’t yet pay for the rights to music.
Humans aren’t mentally ready for an AI-saturated ‘post-truth world’: The AI era promises a flood of disinformation, deepfakes, and hallucinated “facts.” Psychologists are only beginning to grapple with the implications. Thor Benson
+ Larry Rosen, a professor emeritus of psychology at California State University, Dominguez Hills, says he worries that AI will make people more reliant on technology. Humans like things to be as simple and easy as possible, to avoid stress, he says, so people might start automating every aspect of their life that they can.
+ Michael Graziano, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Princeton University, says he thinks AI could create a “post-truth world.” He says it will likely make it significantly easier to convince people of false narratives, which will be disruptive in many ways.
The weather isn’t ‘climate change’ Lionel Shriver
+ Ironically, the real problem may be that Canada hasn’t been lighting enough fires. Government regulations regarding controlled burns have gnarled into a thicket.
+ For politicians, climate has become the catch-all homework-eating dog.
+ Given the ceaselessness of this mantra, perhaps we’ve finally discovered that scientific holy grail, a ‘theory of everything’ – a single formula that explains why anything happens anywhere (‘Because climate change!’).
+ We used to call these humbling outbreaks of arbitrary havoc ‘natural disasters’, but the expression is out of fashion now that every fit the planet throws is all our fault.
+ A proposal: let’s bring back the distinction between climate and weather. Climate regards patterns across hundreds if not thousands of years.
The Rhône, an industrial river facing crucial decisions: From its source in the Swiss glaciers to its delta in Provence, the Rhône, the river with the greatest flow rate in France, has been tamed. But it is not safe from the consequences of climate change. It must adapt in every area. Le Monde
Start treating ultra-processed food like tobacco: History will look back at our salt and sugar-laden diet — and the government resistance to curbing it — with incredulity. William Hague
+ The evidence about what we are doing with highly processed food is now emerging.
+ Recent months have brought three compelling books that contain abundant good sense and persuasive science.
+ The sugar removed from the national diet as a result is estimated to be equivalent to the weight of 4,000 double-decker buses, drinks have been reformulated by manufacturers and hundreds of millions of pounds have been raised to invest in children’s health.
+ Dimbleby’s strategy called for more such taxes on salt and sugar in processed food, given the evidence that products are redesigned in response rather than made more expensive.
+ The case is this. Think of our biggest problems in Britain today. A health service struggling to cope, while obesity-related hospital admissions have risen sixfold in ten years.
+ The hard truth is that you can no longer have a successful health strategy, or levelling-up strategy, or economic growth strategy, still less a low-tax or small government strategy, without a food strategy.
Want to be more creative? Try dream-hacking while you sleep: New scientific methods are helping researchers understand how dreams can boost brainpower. FD Flam
+ Even if you don’t remember what happened in a dream, synaptic pathways are changing in the brain, said Harvard Medical School psychiatrist Robert Stickgold, who has been studying dreams for decades.
+ The line between productivity and resting is blurry — especially in creative endeavors. It’s possible that in our productivity-obsessed society, people will keep skimping on sleep and then try to use dream-hacking to stay productive 24/7.
+ But ideally these new revelations about dreams and creativity will move us toward more balance, giving sleep and even naps some much needed respectability.
What I learned from buying a house in London: I may have just bought into the worst of the London downswing. But I’m at peace with that. Matthew Brooker
+ Why would investors put money into residential property yielding 3.5%-4% — about what you could expect from a semi-detached four-bedroom house in outer London these days — when they can get 4.5% from a bank deposit, with next to no collection risk, and no depreciation or maintenance costs?
+ The management guru Peter Drucker once said that profit is not the purpose of a business, but rather the test of its validity.
+ I feel the same way about buying a home. You don’t buy a house because it’s cheap but because you want to live in it: Price isn’t the reason, it’s the limiting factor.
+ Human beings are driven by deeper motivations than money even when we don’t fully realize it. I may have just bought into the worst of the London downswing. I’m at peace with that.
Inside Meghan Markle’s Hollywood flop Kara Kennedy
+ The day-to-day job of a modern royal is gloriously glamour-free. It’s about opening schools and chatting to nurses. There is a relentless focus on celebrating, and spending time with, the little people. It takes a certain type of person — willing to smile, wave and do little else — to marry into the Firm. As the very high royal divorce rate of the last 30 years will tell you, not many are cut out for it.
+ Now the Sussexes are discovering that the reverse is true, too: you cannot simply take a prince to Hollywood and expect him to become a star. Their fame stems from both royalty and celebrity, but they’re not the same thing.
+ There is no doubt that if he returned, Harry would be welcomed by his family — and the British people — with open arms. But for Meghan, the game could well and truly be up.
Parker Posey doesn’t know if she can live here: The actress on aging in the city, terrible boyfriends, and why she doesn’t read her press. Choire Sicha
Versailles reopening Marie-Antoinette's private rooms: AFP reports the chateau of Versailles will reopen the private rooms of Queen Marie-Antoinette as part of its ongoing 400th-anniversary celebrations.
France pledges to combat 'overtourism': AFP reports that faced with surging numbers of visitors to historic landmarks and natural treasures, France wants to put a lid on the tourist crowds that flood in each year -- though officials recognize it won't be easy.
The athletes who can’t afford their near-death experiences Adam Elder
+ “The insurance plans could be more expensive than the sponsorships,” according to Lauren Anderson, director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing Center at the University of Oregon, who previously worked for Adidas and Nike. “Sponsorship is a gig economy for sport,” she says. For companies, “the athletes are easy to cut ties with as independent contractors.”
Watson questions PGA Tour, LIV deal in open letter: AFP reports United States golf legend Tom Watson called on the PGA Tour to provide full details of its merger with the Saudi backers of LIV Golf on Monday, saying the deal had left a slew of unanswered questions.
Kuwait silent in noisy sporting neighborhood: Kuwait, the first Arab Asian nation at the World Cup, has faded from its glory days. Meanwhile, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE invest heavily in international sports, leaving the former football powerhouse behind. DW
+ Those were golden days. "We were the best in Asia because the government, the FA, clubs and the media — the whole community — were after one goal and wanted high standards," Bader Marafi, a longtime fan and archivist of Kuwaiti football, told DW. "Everyone worked together."
+ Fast forward more than four decades and there is little sign of such unity. Kuwait, which failed to even qualify for the 2023 Asian Cup, has slipped down the rankings and out of the spotlight at a time when there has never been such a focus on sports in the region.
+ Kuwait, the fourth biggest oil producer in the region, with around 7% of the world's reserves, has been absent from both the spending and the conversation.
+ This is despite a sovereign investment fund that is, according to the Sovereign Wealth Funds data platform, worth $769 billion (€704 billion), second only to the Abu Dhabi fund and bigger than both its Saudi and Qatari equivalents. Kuwait, which also has a strong banking system and little debt, has no F1 Grand Prix, no major international tournaments to prepare for and no major European football clubs connected to its state.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
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