Global Street Smarts.
Happy Monday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
Putin looked into the abyss Saturday — and blinked David Ignatius
+ Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of the unraveling of Russia as a great power — which will be Putin’s true legacy.
+ Putin’s deal with renegade militia leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin is likely to be a momentary truce, at best.
+ Putin is easy to caricature, but he has an unusual gift, if one can call it that, for authoritarian rule.
+ With his invocation of 1917, Putin took Russians back to the shattering domestic strikes that followed their reversals in World War I.
+ President Biden and his team stayed in contact with foreign leaders. The message in all these calls, I’m told, was “cool it.” Don’t make the crisis in Russia more dangerous by seeking to intervene or profit from the disarray.
+ What comes next, surely, is more trouble for Putin in Ukraine.
The Wagner mutiny leaves Putin a naked emperor: The lack of popular indignation over a revolt during an enemy counteroffensive shows that Russia’s heart isn’t with Putin and his war against Ukraine. Leonid Bershidsky
NYT: After armed uprising, Russians confront a country shrouded in uncertainty
Bloomberg: Silence cloaks the Kremlin after Russian mutiny against Putin
FT: Wagner troops withdraw as Russian uprising leaves Putin weakened
WP: Wagner rebellion shows ‘cracks’ in Putin’s leadership, Blinken says
WSJ: Wagner’s aborted mutiny leaves no winners in Russia
+ Rebellion has dealt lasting damage to the Russian state’s authority, inviting future challenges
‘Get out of our way’: How Prigozhin’s march on Moscow failed: Crackly voice in post on Telegram heralded start of first armed uprising in Russia for three decades. FT
+ China’s foreign ministry said it supports Russia’s actions to maintain national stability, a day after Moscow defused the biggest threat to President Vladimir Putin’s rule.
Russia’s uprising is a serious threat to China as well: Xi’s “intimate friend” Putin is proving vulnerable, which endangers the global axis of authoritarianism. Hal Brands
+ When political change comes to totalitarian societies, it tends to be violent and unpredictable.
+ First, Russia’s upheaval creates a clearer path forward for Ukraine.
+ Second, it’s not clear that Prigozhin’s revolt is a road to a better Russia.
+ Third, what we could see instead is greater instability in large parts of the former Soviet Union.
+ Finally, Russia’s unrest creates intense strategic headaches for China.
+ Xi Jinping needs a friendly, relatively strong Russia that can challenge American power in Europe while Beijing pushes its influence in Asia.
+ Putin is in danger of having to fight a war at home to deal with the consequences of his war of aggression abroad.
+ Xi is coming face to face with the possibility that the man he called his “best, most intimate friend” may be far weaker and less competent than he seemed.
China targets weakest link in Washington-Tokyo-Seoul triad: Beijing seeks to turn South Korea's political divide to its advantage. Nikkei
Today: New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and his trade delegation are scheduled to stay in China till Friday with the aim of boosting bilateral ties.
Tuesday: Li Qiang speech at Summer Davos Forum: Chinese Premier Li Qiang will deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in the city of Tianjin, an event looking to facilitate dialogue on the economy between the public and private sectors.
Saturday: China's anti-espionage law: A new anti-espionage law in China will take effect with the aim of strengthening national security.
How India is slowly moving into the American orbit: New Delhi still fiercely defends its neutrality. But wariness of China is pushing it ever closer to Washington. FT
+ Before he became Indian prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi could not get a visa to visit the US over claims about communal violence in his home state of Gujarat.
+ US lawmakers this week gave Modi multiple standing ovations when he joined the small pantheon of leaders, alongside Nelson Mandela and Winston Churchill, who have addressed Congress more than once.
+ For a country that co-founded the Non-Aligned Movement at the height of the cold war in 1961, and whose diplomats today take every opportunity to voice New Delhi’s policy of neutrality, both the optics and substance of Modi’s visit were extraordinary.
+ “In the cold war, India could walk a middle path because it had no major disputes with either the US or the Soviet Union, and play each other off against each other. Today it can’t do that with the US and China.”
+ Washington and New Delhi are striving to compete with China in emerging areas of high tech, including chips, quantum computing and AI. They also want to deter Chinese military aggression, particularly near the India-China border in the Himalayas in the case of New Delhi.
+ In January, Modi hosted a “Voice of the Global South” summit, which included attendees from Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Venezuela, and was meant to provide a platform for the concerns of developing countries whose economies and people have been hit badly by the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation that followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
+ In 2018 the US gave India so-called Strategic Trade Authorization-1, easing US export controls for high-tech sales, the third Asian country to obtain the status after Japan and South Korea.
+ Today India does more joint military exercises with the US than with any other country.
+ “While US-India interests may intersect when it comes to China, when it comes to Russia there is still tremendous dissonance,” says Lisa Curtis, an Indo-Pacific expert at the Center for a New American Security think-tank in Washington. “There is no indication that Modi is moving towards the US orbit when comes to Russia.”
Modi’s welcome in Washington wows and worries Indians back home WP
+ The celebrity welcome for Modi this week in Washington gave the prime minister yet another chance to use the world stage as a venue to bolster his image at home. Throughout Modi’s tenure, local media in India have featured his hugs and greetings with world leaders. This time, the fanfare over his reception abroad comes just a year before India’s national elections.
+ “This is the magic of Modi … He is undoubtedly a global leader now”
+ Political experts say the portraits of Modi in Washington and the surrounding events will undoubtedly play a large role in the upcoming election. Fifteen parties that will challenge the BJP in the upcoming elections held a meeting Friday in an effort to display a united front.
+ One anchor on one of India’s most popular English news channels chimed in: “When the opposition hears ‘Modi, Modi’ chants, the opposition hears only ‘Modi, Modi.’ We hear ‘India, India.'”
Saudi Arabia wants tourists. It didn’t expect Christians. In a fluid new age for the conservative Islamic kingdom, evangelicals have become some of its most enthusiastic visitors. WP
Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis is poised for a landslide victory in Sunday’s general election: The country’s second vote in just over a month — and the former prime minister will likely win enough seats in parliament to allow him to form a single-party government.
Yousaf rejects Sturgeon’s strategy for independence: The first minister managed to keep the SNP faithful happy in a confident speech. Kenny Farquharson
What politicians can learn from Scotland’s football team Alex Bell
Mordaunt mauls Fleet Street’s finest Steerpike
Vienna was once again named the world’s most livable city: According to the newly released Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Liveability Index, the City of Music retained the spot it has held for eight of the last 10 semi-annual surveys, while Copenhagen also held onto its title as the runner-up.
Why there are 102 candidates running for Toronto mayor: All it takes to run the top job in Canada’s largest city is a refundable C$200 fee and 25 signatures. This year, that means a crowded and colorful field. Bloomberg
+ Low barriers to entering the race — plus an unexpected opening for the job after John Tory abruptly ended his eight-year-long reign — have led to the largest recorded number of contenders vying to lead one of North America’s largest cities. That’s compared with 31 candidates in last October’s mayoral contest.
+ Despite the low financial bar to get on the ballot in Toronto, victory may be another thing altogether. Lead mayoral candidates could spend an average C$1 million to fund a credible campaign — much of it garnered through donor cash. Toronto has a C$1.66 million spending limit in this mayoral election.
+ The 2023 Toronto mayoral by-election will be held on Monday, June 26, 2023, to elect the mayor of Toronto to serve the remainder of the 2022–2026 city council term following the resignation of Mayor John Tory.
The super PAC frenzy redefining campaign operations: Politico reports from door-knocking to fundraising texts, super PACs take on a bigger role in GOP primary.
WP: DeSantis voters: Angry at Fauci, anxious about ‘Cinderfella,’ tiring of Trump
+A new NBC News poll finds Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis since Trump’s latest indictment on federal criminal charges, 51% to 22%.
GOP lawmakers fear Biden may be preparing to allow TikTok to continue operating in US: Language in a new Commerce Department rule hints at an eventual green light for the Chinese-owned app, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) say. WP
Arizona is running out of cheap water. Investors saw it coming: The state just moved to restrict housing construction around Phoenix as groundwater demand outstrips supply. But fast-growing towns are already buying water from elsewhere — and investors’ bets are paying off. Bloomberg
+ Many of the US counties that are growing the fastest now also happen to be among the driest, according to an analysis by the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington, DC think tank. That’s projected to continue with Americans flocking to warmer areas, setting up increasingly fraught struggles over a scarce natural resource.
Silicon Valley VCs rush into defense technology start-ups: War in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions lead to belief that fledgling companies will get a share of US Pentagon budget. FT
+ US venture capitalists have agreed more than 200 defence and aerospace deals in the first five months of this year worth nearly $17bn — more than the sector raised during the entire of 2019, according to data from PitchBook.
Oil and gas majors step up efforts to diversify into lithium: Groups pin hopes on technological breakthrough to produce metal critical for electric car transition. FT
+ ExxonMobil, Schlumberger, Occidental Petroleum, and Equinor are exploring whether their core skills of pumping, processing and reinjecting underground fluids such as oil and water could be deployed to process lithium from unconventional brine resources, helping to ease forecast shortages of a material expected to be vital for the energy transition.
Bloomberg: Men are returning to offices in US faster than women, new data show
Street-racing in Nissan Leaf, EV enthusiast pushes Texans to go electric: A lifelong gearhead and racing fanatic is on a lonely mission to convince her conservative community that EVs are fast and fun. WP
The ugly shoes now worth billions of dollars: Hokas are the chunky sneakers of choice for runners. And nurses. And waiters. And teens. And grandpas. How did shoes that were huge, weird, and French conquer America’s hearts, wallets, and feet? WSJ
+ When Hoka’s founders sold the company to Deckers Brands in 2012, their sales were around $3 million that year. Hoka’s sales over the past fiscal year: $1.4 billion.
+ Hoka sales account for nearly 40% of revenue at parent company Deckers.
+ The success of Hoka was also made possible by the brand’s counterintuitive business strategy. It turns out Hoka grew fast by moving slowly.
+ There are three key elements of Hokas—the midsole (for soft landings), the foot frame (for support) and the curved sole called a meta-rocker (for propulsion)—and the combination of stability, efficiency and cushioning helps prevent injuries and alleviate pain. Also, they’re super comfy.
+ The brand was founded in 2009 by Jean-Luc Diard and Nicolas Mermoud, who met at a ski race in the French Alps decades earlier.
+ Their original concept was to chase that sensation of riding a wave on a surfboard or floating down a mountain on skis—except for trail running. They called the brand Hoka One One, the Maori phrase that roughly translates to “flying over the earth.”
+ As they tinkered with sneakers designed to run faster downhill, they realized that shoes had something in common with modern tennis rackets, bicycle tires and their beloved skis: Bigger was better.
+ Hoka was introduced to the U.S. when Mermoud attended a 2009 trade show with a bag of prototypes and without a booth. He didn’t need one. Those early shoes had so little in common with the competition that almost everyone who raves about them recalls when they first encountered them.
+ The improbable billion-dollar brand started as a word-of-mouth phenomenon in the niche but influential running community. In recent years, Nike and Adidas have ceded ground in the running market, opening a lane for much, much smaller upstarts like Hoka and On.
+ On its path to $1.4 billion in sales, the brand moseyed from running shops to outdoor specialists like REI to large retailers, though executives actually turned down the opportunity to move Hokas into Foot Locker before the pandemic.
Daddy, are you an influencer? Fueled by the pandemic and TikTok, a market for content made by fathers has staying power. Meet the “Dadfluencers.” NYT
+ “Fathers have been gradually playing a bigger role in the domestic lives of their families for a while, but I think the pandemic really supercharged it,” said Cameron Ajdari, a founder of Currents Management in Los Angeles, which represents many dadfluencers. “It’s created a big appetite for dad content, not just from brands, but also from parents and dads all around the world. Dad influencers are making other dads feel seen in a way that wasn’t happening before.”
+ “With Instagram, a lot of men were uncomfortable with putting up these edited, staged pictures and captions,” said James Nord, a founder of Fohr, an influencer marketing firm in New York City. “But TikTok has been a great entry point for a lot of dad influencers, because it comes across like you’re documenting your life in a natural way, and you don’t have to put yourself out there as much.”
TikTok turns to south-east Asia to drive new growth: FT reports the viral app’s parent ByteDance targets a large Indonesian market but faces growing regulatory scrutiny around the world.
The forgotten element of strategy: Without incorporating time into our calculations, we will always be too late. Nadia Schadlow
+ Time and time again, in one sector after another, we articulate strategies and set objectives, but we usually fall short, because we’ve failed to take into account the crucial element of time.
+ Tasks we once accomplished swiftly now drag on for years. Problems we once resolved efficiently now prove interminable. Without incorporating time into our strategic calculations, we will always be too late.
When radical therapy transformed sex and family on the Upper West Side: ‘The Sullivanians,’ by Alexander Stille, is the riveting and troubling story of a psychoanalytic cult founded in 1950s New York. WP
+ It is this gritty, out-of-control (and cheap!) New York that is the principal setting for Alexander Stille’s wonderful and troubling new book, “The Sullivanians,” about a renegade psychoanalytic institute that evolved into a kind of urban commune and then into a frighteningly insular and sadistic cult that held its members in its grip for two generations.
+ As the Sullivan Institute grew, it began to create a world of chumship in which patients were encouraged to move into apartments together. It was, in its own way, as hierarchical as a Stalinist collective, a kind of psychoanalytic pyramid scheme in which strict rules applied to everyone except the tiny group at the top, composed of Newton and his current and former wives. (As in all New York stories, real estate plays an important role: The expanding commune was possible because in the 1960s and ’70s, large, multiroom apartments on the Upper West Side were cheap and getting cheaper.) As the Sullivanians began to have children, their domestic setups became increasingly baroque.
How The Rest Is History boys became podcast royalty: Covering everything from Watergate to the wives of Henry VIII, their chart-topping podcast has turned Dominic Sandbrook and Tom Holland into global stars. How did two middle-class, middle-aged blokes make the past so… sexy? The Times
Qatar wealth fund is in talks to buy minority stake in Washington Wizards, Capitals and Mystics: WSJ reports the move would add to the influx of money from the Gulf region reshaping professional sports across the globe.
Sportswashing isn’t what we say now. It’s what we won’t be saying later. Candace Buckner
+ "We may think of sportswashing as a regime taking a pressure washer to its image, scrubbing down its reputation and wiping it clean so that, as the despicable bits circle the drain, the masses never knew they existed at all. But it doesn’t work that way. It’s more like a steady drip than a quick buff. Both the oil-rich sovereign powers pumping out billions and the Western professional sports leagues and franchises eager to siphon them off know this truth. They know it will require patience."
+ "Sportswashing is a slow play, an erosion of ethics that takes its time to absorb the blows, weather the pushback and wait out the howls of disgust until they become quieter and quieter. When all that remains is a whimper and maybe even a shrug, then those countries have won. And they are winning now because we’re losing our outrage."
+ "This is the beginning. It’s not a power wash, because a deep cleansing of sins takes time. Instead, sportswashing will work a decade from now, a generation later. The teams and leagues are willing to live with some of the accompanying dirt for now. The money is worth it."
My first F1 race was a blur. It won’t be my last. NASCAR couldn’t hook this Southern sportswriter. “Drive to Survive” and F1 just may. Kent Babb
+ "...lately the most popular topic hasn’t been Kansas City’s Super Bowl chances or LeBron-vs.-Michael or even Saudi Arabia’s hostile takeover of professional golf. There’s a noticeable curiosity about a sport that has been popular overseas for decades but seems to have only recently broken through in the United States."
+ "NASCAR never hooked me, probably because it didn’t have a sports-fueled soap opera like 'Drive to Survive.""
+ With under-the-helmet drama and incredible access and cinematography, the show has built a massive audience over five seasons, painting some drivers and crew as lovable grouches and others as cocky villains.
+ "Separate from the engine, one team employee said, most adults could lift the carbon fiber body with one arm."
+ "In 171 career starts, he (Max Verstappen) has finished in the top three an astonishing 85 times. Forty-one of those were wins, making Verstappen a clear threat to break Hamilton’s record 103 career victories."
+ "In February, Ford announced it will build engines for Red Bull starting in 2026."
+ "'“Vegas will be the most ridiculous thing that we will see. I want to be there, but I’m pretty sure that I won’t like what I will see.'"
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
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