Global Street Smarts.
Happy Saturday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
How to watch the Turkish elections like a pro: Here’s what you need to know about Turkey’s historic elections. Politico
+ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are hoping to remain at the head of the table in what, according to recent polls, is expected to be the closest race in the country’s recent electoral history.
+ On the international stage, Erdoğan has been playing a high-wire act on topics such as the war in Ukraine and who should join NATO. But he also faces domestic concerns, such as an escalating economic crisis, soaring inflation, and criticism of the government’s handling of February’s deadly earthquakes, which devastated large swathes of the country.
+ Meanwhile, the main opposition coalition is made up of an eclectic mix of six political parties. First and foremost, a win for them would mean a return to a parliamentary system of governance.
+ Around 61 million voters from across Turkey’s 87 electoral districts will head to the polls on Sunday, May 14.
+ Meanwhile, some 3.4 million eligible overseas voters — 1.5 million of them in Germany alone — will likely have already cast their ballots.
+ Polling stations — which are set up in public schools — open at 8 am on election day and close at 5 pm
+ At 9 pm (2 pm ET) media can start reporting, and unofficial results are expected to start trickling in around midnight.
Turkey’s president amassed power. He could still lose this election. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has tilted the political playing field in his favor over the past two decades, concentrating power in his own hands. Still, he faces a stiff challenge in Sunday’s election. NYT
+ Erdogan, who has come to increasingly dominate the country over the past two decades, tapped the Treasury for populist spending programs and has raised the minimum wage three times in the last year and a half.
+ Recent polls show him trailing the main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in a tight race that could go to a runoff later this month.
+ “The elections are not fair, but nonetheless they are free, and that is why there is always the prospect of political change in Turkey,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based EDAM research group. “The prospect exists, and is now palpable.”
+ The close race speaks to Turkey’s complicated character. Political scientists say it is neither a full democracy nor a full-blown autocracy, but rather a mix of the two in which the leader has outsized power but where elections can still bring about change.
+ Turkey has never tipped into full-on autocracy because electoral politics retain a hallowed place in the national identity, one revered by Erdogan himself.
+ A change of leadership in Turkey would resonate around the world, given the country’s unique position as a predominantly Muslim society with a staunchly secular state and a vast network of economic and diplomatic ties spanning Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.
Europe needs more factories and fewer dependencies: The twin shocks of COVID and the war in Ukraine have taught us lessons about the value of economic sovereignty. Emmanuel Macron
+ More than 200 international chief executives will arrive in Versailles to take part in an event entitled “Choose France”
+ We are committed to building back French industry and fostering our economic power.
+ Since becoming president of France in 2017, I have consistently argued for the idea of European sovereignty.
+ What we need now is a comprehensive framework to implement this European consensus on sovereignty.
+ I propose a doctrine based on five pillars:
- A commitment to competitiveness, greater integration and the deepening of the EU single market
- Industrial policy | European Chips Act + Net Zero Industry Act
- Protection of vital European interests and strategic assets | block foreign acquisitions of strategic European companies
- Reciprocity | trade agenda should be both ambitious and consistent with our broader political objectives
- Multilateral solidarity | lay the groundwork for a new international financial framework
+ For decades, the backbone of Europe’s economy was a middle class with well-paid industrial jobs confident that the next generation would be more prosperous than the last.
+ Europeans can prove that our continent, the cradle of the Industrial Revolution, can once again be the home of flourishing industry and shared progress.
WP: Ukrainians topple statues, dismantle art, stop speaking Russian in backlash to Putin’s war
FT: Ukrainian counter-offensive takes shape with first gains around Bakhmut
The Navy SEAL who went to Ukraine because he couldn’t stop fighting: Daniel Swift was in his element waging America’s war on terror from Afghanistan to Yemen. After his marriage failed back home, he found a new purpose: killing Russians. WSJ
+ “A lot of people won’t admit it, but lots of people are here because war is fun,” said a 43-year-old US Army veteran. Civilian life, he added, didn’t offer the same camaraderie or sense of purpose: “War is easy in many ways. Your mission is crystal clear. You’re here to take the enemy out.”
+ Swift died while still a SEAL, though AWOL, in a war to which the US hasn’t committed troops. This has complicated his family’s effort to collect benefits from Washington.
+ A Navy spokesman said Swift was considered to be an active deserter at the time of his death, and that “we cannot speculate as to why the former Sailor was in Ukraine.” The Pentagon has yet to make a ruling on the family’s petition.
South Africa-US dispute escalates as Putin calls Ramaphosa: FT reports Washington’s claim that Pretoria covertly sent arms to Russia sparks serious diplomatic incident.
Why Putin needs Wagner: The hidden power struggle sustaining Russia’s brutal militia Andrei Soldatov + Irina Borogan
+ Wagner’s rise to prominence is only the most recent development in a long history of Russian and Soviet reliance on informal forces, which goes all the way back to the Stalin era.
+ For Putin, Wagner has also become a crucial means to rein in the military, which he has long viewed as a potential threat to his rule.
+ Contrary to Western assumptions, Wagner’s high-profile role in the war has as much to do with the dynamics of power in Moscow as with what is happening on the battlefield in Ukraine.
+ On the surface, the use of private military companies fit a new pattern of twenty-first-century warfare. Military contractors had been used by the United States in Iraq, for example, and Wagner bore some similarities to Blackwater, the US military contractor.
+ But for the GRU, Wagner was also a continuation of a much older tradition going back to Soviet times, when the Kremlin used proxy forces to intervene in conflicts all over the world.
+ “It’s just like when we had our military in disguise in Spain during the Spanish Civil War,” a GRU official told us in 2017, when we asked him why the agency needed a private military company like Wagner.
+ Soviet and Russian military officials had long viewed the Spanish Civil War as a “good war”: Soviet soldiers had been on the right side and the fighting was undeniably antifascist, since the Republicans were fighting the Nationalist forces of General Francisco Franco, who was allied with both Mussolini and Hitler.
+ In Putin’s Russia, the more Prigozhin acts like a wicked court jester, the better.
The Times: China renews efforts to broker peace in Ukraine
China special envoy to visit Ukraine, Russia: The trip ‘is a testament to Chinese efforts to promote peace talks,’ Beijing says. Politico
+ China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will visit Ukraine, Russia and several European countries next week as part of Beijing’s bid to act as a middleman in the war in Ukraine in spite of concerns over its neutrality.
+ Li, who was China’s ambassador to Moscow for a decade until 2019, will also visit France, Germany and Poland to “have communications on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis,” ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing. Li reportedly will be the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to visit Ukraine since the war started.
+ “This visit by the Chinese representative is a testament to Chinese efforts to promote peace talks and our firm commitment to peace”
China seeks to pry Europe away from Washington: Beijing’s new foreign minister uses first solo Europe trip to warn against decoupling between two economic giants. WSJ
+ There is a growing push in Brussels to arm European capitals with greater powers to reduce economic dependencies on Beijing, an approach European officials are calling “de-risking” from Beijing, Some in Washington have called for a decoupling of Western economies from China.
+ “No decoupling but smart de-risking is the motto.”
China slams Japan for plans to host NATO office: Nikkei reports Beijing calls on Tokyo to 'draw lessons from history.'
NATO is global.
How China’s echo chamber threatens Taiwan: Xi Jinping has unleashed hawkish forces he can’t control.
To understand China...Understand James Madison, factions, and Federalist 10.
+ The main factor that will determine whether Washington and Beijing come to blows over Taiwan is not necessarily Xi’s strategy for unification but the idiosyncrasies of China’s political system. The dynamics among China’s political leadership, its policy elite, and the broader public have generated an internal feedback loop that is not entirely within Xi’s comprehension or control. This could result in China’s being fully mobilized for war even without Xi deciding to attack Taiwan.
+ Xi’s emphasis on “self-confidence” has led state media to fixate on China’s military achievements.
In Xi’s China, economic needs may take a back seat to security: Xi Jinping wants to insulate China from perceived threats from the West. He also wants to promote the country as deserving of foreign investment and clout. Can he do both? NYT
What could turn Biden’s reelection upside down: The X factors of the 2024 presidential race. David Frum
What GOP voters have told me since Trump’s indictment: They’re open to an alternative to the former president, but his rivals can’t touch him. Sarah Longwell
+ Over the course of hundreds of focus groups I’ve conducted, a large chunk of GOP voters have made clear that they would be content with a nominee other than Trump in 2024—preferably a “Trump without the baggage”–style candidate.
+ They like that the former president is, in their words, a “fighter.”
+ But after eight years of Trump tweets, taunts, and tantrums, they’re open to—in many cases eager for—new alternatives.
+ They thought that by covering for Trump they were tapping into his power, but they were actually giving away their own—mortgaging themselves and their reputations to Trump’s lies and depravities. By defending him then, they have made it impossible to credibly accuse him of anything now.
+ This problem is compounded by the deep relationship that Trump has cultivated with Republican voters. He’s been a constant presence in their lives for eight years—or, for Apprentice fans, much longer. They defended him on Facebook and argued about him over Thanksgiving dinners. Millions of them have voted for him twice.
+ DeSantis, in contrast, became a national figure only about 18 months ago.
+ Already, parts of the Republican establishment are resigning themselves to another Trump coronation. Although DeSantis was once their great hope, the plan now—once again—seems to be to sit back and pray that the Democrats take care of Trump for them.
Trump’s team revels in town hall victory as CNN staff rages at ‘spectacle of lies’: Questions also linger over what the network offered the ex-president in exchange for what some called a Trump infomercial. Guardian
+ The former president was interested in doing a town hall mainly because it would give the campaign material to clip for social media. He was interested in doing it on CNN because the campaign reached an understanding – which a spokesperson denied – that it would book more Trump surrogates.
+ Afterwards, Trump allies joked that the event in their eyes amounted to an hour of Trump infomercials and should be recorded as an in-kind campaign contribution, and that Trump’s nearest rival for the nomination, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, would be crushed in a similar debate.
+ In stark contrast to the Trump camp’s jubilation, the mood inside CNN was dour amid widespread reports of internal disgust. The network’s own media reporter Oliver Darcy wrote in his newsletter on Wednesday that it was “hard to see how America was served by the spectacle of lies that aired on CNN”.
+ Trump was personally jubilant on the flight back to Florida and played It’s a Man’s World by James Brown, people familiar with the matter said.
CNN leadership under fire after ‘disastrous’ Trump town hall: WP reports chief executive Chris Licht praised host Kaitlan Collins and defended inviting Donald Trump and a Republican audience for the live town hall event.
‘Spectacle of lies’: The blowback from CNN’s town hall with Donald Trump: Network bosses argue that increasingly polarised America needs to hear from both sides of the debate. FT
Pernod Ricard halts all drinks exports to Russia: FT reports further retreat for French group after halting the export of Swedish vodka brand Absolut to Russian network.
Bloomberg: Tesla recalls virtually every car it has sold in China
Linda Yaccarino, ad world’s ‘velvet hammer,’ named Twitter CEO: WSJ reports Elon Musk is betting that the NBCUniversal executive with deep Madison Avenue ties will bring advertisers back to Twitter.
Apple is about to break its own rules with its new launch: WSJ reports Apple’s soon-to-be-revealed mixed-reality headset will likely cost $3,000, requires a separate battery pack, and is still experimental.
Northern France dreams of becoming Europe's battery valley: The region is banking on electricity for its reindustrialization, with the launch of three gigafactory projects and a fourth one in the works. Le Monde
+ The region has budgeted €10 million for training and is part of the Electro'Mob consortium, alongside the main car manufacturers in the Hauts-de-France region and the academic and university communities.
+ A total of 40 partners have been teaming up to train more than 8,000 people in the electric car industry by 2030.
+ The program has a budget of €25 million, including €14.2 million in government grants.
Germany’s new chip factories: A bet on the future or waste of money? The Scholz government is spending billions to subsidize the country’s semiconductor industry. Some believe it does not make economic sense. FT
+ The sudden passion for subsidies comes at a time of growing alarm in Europe over the fragility of its supply chains and its huge dependence on Taiwan and South Korea for a resource that Scholz in Dresden described as the “oil of the 21st century.”
+ The decision to open the subsidy floodgates in Europe was a direct response to the new, activist industrial policy being pursued by the US. At issue are the Biden administration’s Chips and Science Act, a $280bn package that includes $52bn in funding to boost US domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $369bn of subsidies and tax credits for clean energy technologies.
+ “To produce a modern semiconductor you need about 80 percent of the periodic table in terms of elements.” So even if all the fabs that have been announced for Europe are actually built, “we will continue to depend on chemicals from foreign countries — there’s just no way around that.”
How shocking the ocean could turn it into a carbon removal powerhouse: A startup has begun a unique experiment in the Port of Los Angeles to electrochemically treat seawater and safely store carbon. Bloomberg
+ The ocean is already the planet’s most powerful carbon removal tool. But we need it (or something else) to do more to reach net zero emissions. This startup thinks it has the solution: pulling seawater from the ocean and zapping it to remove and store carbon.
+ The researchers project that SeaChange could pull around 10 pounds (4.6 kilograms) of CO2 from the atmosphere per metric ton of seawater processed, which is equivalent to the average tailpipe emissions of a car driven 12 miles (19 kilometers).
+ The pilot project is designed to process more than 50 metric tons a day during the trial, according to the researchers. Sequestering 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide requires processing 220 metric tons of seawater.
Bloomberg: Business lunches are back in New York, Chicago as pandemic fades
WSJ: Tom Brady is in talks to buy a stake in the Las Vegas Raiders
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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