ITK Daily | May 18

Happy Thursday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this: 

Biden launches Asia trip this week aimed at taking on China: As the president prepares to visit Japan, some say Washington and Beijing must lower the temperature. WP

+ “The US does have a proactive role in the region, but with an election coming up at the end of next year, all that could change. Ironically, these days the US is the more unpredictable partner. Under Xi Jinping, China has become way more predictable — though often not in an entirely positive or reassuring way.”

Australia cancels Quad summit in Sydney after Biden pulls out: Al Jazeera reports PM Anthony Albanese says leaders of Australia, the US, India, and Japan will instead meet at the G7 summit in Japan this weekend.

Disappointment in Papua New Guinea after Biden cancels first visit by a US leader: After six months of preparation in Port Moresby, the President cut short his trip in order to focus on debt limit talks in Washington. Guardian

In canceling Pacific trip, Biden shows the US has higher priorities WP

+ Biden’s decision to return home after the Group of Seven meetings in Japan — canceling the Papua New Guinea and Australian legs of his trip — to deal with the U.S. debt crisis sent a starkly different signal: That American dysfunction at home continues to disrupt its agenda abroad.

Henry Kissinger explains how to avoid world war three: America and China must learn to live together. They have less than ten years. Economist

Bloomberg: Japan’s dream of nuclear-free world crashes into reality at Hiroshima G7

+ Russia, China, and North Korea hold half of the world’s warheads.

+ US sending aircraft carrier groups and submarines to the region.

China to convene Central Asian leaders to counter G7 summit: Nikkei reports Xi aims to bolster ties on security, Belt and Road projects.

Analysis: Macron's labeling of Russia as 'vassal state' goes viral in China: Xi Jinping tries to obscure the G7 summit by sending envoys to Ukraine. Nikkei

+ Macron's comments are significant. For starters, they were uttered publicly by the top leader of a major European country that influences the region's politics and is one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

+ Macron's comments have triggered two different reactions in China.

+ Within the Chinese Communist Party, there is a sense of caution, believing this could be a tactic to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. But Macron's comments seem to have made many regular Chinese smile.

+ The pressing issue for China now is to break through the international coalition of Western democracies that stands against it.

+ In a coolheaded analysis of the situation, an expert familiar with China's domestic politics and diplomacy said, "The biggest purpose [of sending the delegation to Ukraine] is to provide a topic of conversation to counter the G-7 summit in Hiroshima."

Bloomberg: Xi summit to deepen Central Asian ties in split-screen with G7

+ Regional powers gather in Xi’an as G7 huddles in Hiroshima.

+ Summits symbolize a multipolar world as Xi tries to counter the US.

Move Forward's electoral surprise puts Thai businesses on edge: Nikkei reports the private sector fears infrastructure and fiscal discipline might be big losers.

Thailand: Opposition parties meet for tricky coalition talks: Thailand's opposition parties defeated their military-allied rivals in elections at the weekend. But despite their success at the polls, establishing a functional government may be tough. DW

AP: North Korea shows Kim Jong Un examining a military spy satellite that may be launched soon

Grain deal extended for another two months: DW reports Ukrainian and Russian officials have agreed to a two-month extension of the grain deal, which was about to expire. 

Scouring the seas for Putin’s pipeline saboteurs Politico

I’ve never seen the Kremlin so rattled Anna Nemtsova

India, the new Eldorado of civil aviation: In the coming years, the South Asian giant will have to build airports at a frantic pace, buy aircraft, and train tens of thousands of pilots and technicians. Le Monde

+ India will also need to train 34,000 more pilots and 45,000 more technicians by 2040.

+ "We need to build the civil aviation infrastructure and capabilities that by 2047 would be able to support a $20 billion (about €18.2 billion) economy," Jyotiraditya Scindia, the civil aviation minister, said in March, referring to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi government's ambitious economic projections.

+ Over the next 20 years, India will need 2,210 new airliners or about 100 aircraft annually. 

+ Aerospace is France's leading export market in India, with exports reaching €2.6 billion in 2022.

+ The Indian government has a policy of national preference, making it difficult to enter the market without an Indian partner.

+ The objective for the South Asian country is to encourage investment in its soil, the sharing of know-how and technology transfers. India wants to encourage national production and, above all, become an aviation hub for the region, in line with the Hindu nationalist prime minister's mantra of "Atmanirbhar Bharat," that is "autonomous India."

Gauging India’s middle-class opportunity: With the country now ranked as the world’s most populous nation, the size of its consuming classes is being reassessed. John Reed

+ India is now officially the world’s most populous nation, according to the UN, having surpassed China for the first time this year. But just how big a market is it?

+ Since the country began liberalising its economy more than three decades ago, companies — Indian and foreign — have been trying to puzzle out how many Indians make enough money to be categorised as middle class.

+ While estimates differ, all are a small fraction of the UN’s headline number of the more than 1.425bn people it now estimates live in India.

+ Some past estimates have put the number of middle-class people well below 100mn, suggesting India’s consuming classes are closer in size to those in one of south-east Asia or Europe’s midsize economies than China’s.

+ “Anyone who is looking at the Indian economy from the rear-view mirror is going to underestimate not just the quantity but also the quality of the changes in consumption that are coming in India,” says Nikhil Ojha, senior partner with Bain & Co.

+ “The biggest shift will be the move upward of the ‘aspirers’ into the middle class — people who buy not just more of the same, but also more premium and newer categories.” 

Truss Tour: 2023: The Conservatives, and Britain, would rather forget about Liz Truss. She won’t let them. Economist

+ Truss is on tour. From Copenhagen to Taipei, the former prime minister has embarked on a trip round the globe to chide the enemies of freedom and to call on Western leaders to stand up to China.

The next Tory leadership contest has already begun: The runners and riders are jostling to replace Rishi Sunak after the next election. Politico

Nicolas Sarkozy must wear electronic tag, appeals court rules: Guardian reports French court upholds sentence against ex-president in a corruption case, saying he must serve one-year’s detention at home.

My country was a dictatorship before. This feels worse. Nadia Marzouki

+ Marzouki is a research fellow at Sciences Po in Paris. Her father, Moncef Marzouki, was the first president of democratic Tunisia.

Turkey elections: How Erdogan beat expectations: Although the incumbent was not elected in the first round on Sunday, he is ahead of his main opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. He performed far better than most polling institutes had predicted. Le Monde

Ecuador’s president dissolves congress amid impeachment trial: NYT reports President Guillermo Lasso disbanded the National Assembly as the opposition-led body was trying to oust him on embezzlement charges.

Ecuador’s president dissolves National Assembly: DW reports Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso invokes a "mutual death" constitutional clause, to dissolve the National Assembly before an impeachment vote against him.

Canada seeks foreign help to fight spreading wildfires: AFP reports Canada called for foreign help Wednesday to combat wildfires burning out of control and spreading across vast swathes of the western half of the country.

Biden gives clearest indication to date he’s willing to make a critical debt ceiling compromise: Politico reports the president downplayed his embrace of work requirements on government programs as modest. But his fellow Dems have already warned against it.

The Kamala Harris question: Biden’s advanced age means his running mate in the 2024 election needs to be made ready for the presidency. Edward Luce

WP: Mike Pence would start a 2024 campaign in a historically bad position

DeSantis donors called to Miami, sparking speculation he'll announce 2024 run: Bloomberg reports the move is raising speculation that the Florida governor will announce his presidential bid then.

Frank Luntz can’t quit: The GOP’s wunderkind pollster swore he was finished with Washington — except for that penthouse with Kevin McCarthy. Ben Terris

Snooki, Tucker Carlson, and the battle for offshore wind in New Jersey: Gov. Phil Murphy is hoping New Jersey will be the nation’s leading producer of wind energy by 2040. Politico

TikTok ban signed in Montana, paving way for First Amendment legal battle: WSJ reports Montana’s ban on TikTok is slated to take effect next year, paving the way for a legal fight that could determine the fate of a possible nationwide prohibition.

US depression rates reach new highs: Gallup reports the percentage of US adults who report having been diagnosed with depression at some point in their lifetime has reached 29.0%, nearly ten percentage points higher than in 2015.

Young Americans are dying at alarming rates: WSJ reports car accidents, homicides, suicides, and drug overdoses have pushed up death rates for children and teens, reversing years of progress.

WSJ: Theranos founder Holmes to report to prison May 30

Fortune: Angelina Jolie just announced a new fashion business that would connect customers with master tailors and pattern makers

Will Amazon Style pick out everyone’s clothes? It’s already happening. Through its army of influencers, uncanny algorithms, and new stores with touch-screen dressing rooms, the mega-retailer is reinventing the idea of personal style. WP

+ "What the algorithm did not know was that I look absolutely wretched in medium-beige, the color of one dress it had selected just for me."

+ "Another pick, a red floral dress, looked like the kind of thing a TikTok influencer would wear — but on closer inspection it was cheaply made, with plasticky fabric and poorly constructed seams. Data cannot substitute for quality or replace taste."

+ "That makes Amazon Style an IRL microcosm of the online Amazon shopping experience: Equal parts convenient and incoherent, full of hits and misses, with a wide-ranging selection driven by computer science and profit, sometimes to the detriment of style itself."

+ Amazon clothes have never been more popular. In 2021, it became the No. 1 clothing retailer in America by market share, surpassing competitors Target and Walmart, as well as department stores like Macy’s, MarketWatch reported.

+ “Basically, Amazon is becoming a social media platform,” says Federico Mangio, an Italian researcher who has studied affiliate marketing programs. “You can post stories, you can have your storefront, you can advertise products.”

A new restaurant platform wants every customer to get VIP access: A Resy co-founder has launched the project with investments from Union Square Ventures. Bloomberg

+ Blackbird connects you to the world's most exciting restaurants.

Cheesier, saucier, and drowning in caviar: How TikTok took over the menu. Ezra Marcus

Fortune: Cathie Wood says Elon Musk won’t be fuming about ChatGPT for long: ‘Tesla is the biggest AI play out there’

Martha Stewart on becoming Sports Illustrated’s oldest swimsuit cover model Rory Satran

+ At 81, the domestic goddess fronts the magazine in glamorous swimwear that leaves little to the imagination. Her motivation? ‘Showing people that a woman my age can still look good and feel good’

+ “Is it a sex symbol, or is it a symbol of healthy living?” asked Stewart, 81. “We can hardly say sex symbol nowadays, right? Overt sex is kind of frowned upon.”

1,100-year-old Hebrew Bible sells for $38M at auction in New York: Le Monde reports the Codex Sassoon, a leather-bound, handwritten parchment volume containing a nearly complete Hebrew Bible, was purchased on Wednesday by former US Ambassador to Romania Alfred H. Moses and donated to ANU Museum of the Jewish People in Tel Aviv, where it will join the collection.

Cannes 2023: Here are the films competing this year: The 76th edition of the Cannes Film Festival will feature new work by Wes Anderson, Martin Scorsese, and Steve McQueen. Le Monde

Africa’s ‘Cannes moment’ opens with tribute to Malian great Souleymane Cissé: AFP reports this year’s Carrosse d’Or award, part of the Directors Fortnight strand, went to Mali’s Souleymane Cissé, the veteran director credited with reinventing film as an African art form. 

Def Leppard: ‘We stuck it out. And we’re really good at it’: The hard-rock veterans are riding a wave of popularity. Singer Joe Elliott and guitarist Phil Collen explain why. FT

Peyton Manning’s Omaha Productions becomes a media powerhouse: The Hall of Fame quarterback has built an empire valued at more than $400 million with programming for ESPN, documentaries for Netflix, and commercials for big brands. Bloomberg

+ Omaha Productions, the company formed to encompass Manning’s efforts, is one of the fastest-growing media enterprises in the world.

+ Peter Chernin, former president of News Corp. Chernin’s North Road Co. has invested about $10 million in Omaha, valuing the company at more than $400 million. The two companies also agreed to jointly produce projects.

SOLIS | The Speed Project (TSP) is a 340-mile unsanctioned race from Santa Monica Pier to Las Vegas. It lives and dies by the motto: No Rules, No Spectators. Historically, a relay race, in 2021, TSP offered up the chance for individual runners to make the journey from LA to Sin City. The winner took 118 hours. SOLIS follows The North Face Explorer Team runner James Poole’s 2022 attempt to run self-supported over Mount Baldy, survive the blazing heat of Death Valley, and make it to the finish at the famous Welcome to Vegas sign. Watch here.

The Times: City smash Real to move one step closer to glorious Treble

Time for Gary Bettman to let go of his obsession with the Coyotes and Arizona Eric Duhatschek

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal


Caracal produces ITK Daily.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry.

Caracal is here to help.

Caracal is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Caracal believes that to be a world-class geopolitical business communicator, you need global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications. 

To receive Caracal ITK Daily by email, subscribe here.