ITK Daily | October 11

Crypto, Finnish pipeline, Birkenstock, Vermont, Jerry Seinfeld, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.

ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for communications pros.
 

Happy Wednesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this

The Israel-Hamas War — and what it means for the world
Ian Bremmer @ TED

Initial thoughts on Hamas’ war: What was Hamas’s strategic objective in launching this weekend’s horrific violence? What should Israel’s be in response? Benjamin Wittes

Hamas attack exposes Israel's military fiasco: The assault by the militant Palestinian Islamist group revealed the inadequacies of both the Israeli intelligence services and the army, which relies primarily on its elite corps, commandos and air force, rather than ground forces. Le Monde

Israel has to defend itself or where will we go? If the world wants peace in the Middle East it must ensure that Hamas is not compromised with or rewarded. Daniel Finkelstein

Iran’s supreme leader issues Tehran’s latest denial of involvement in Israel attacks: NYT reports Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested that Tehran was not behind the assault in Israel and warned of consequences from retaliatory strikes in Gaza.

Reuters: Iran's Khamenei says Tehran was not behind Hamas attack on Israel

The West and areas of the Global South divided over Palestine
: While Paris, London, Washington, Berlin and Rome, as well as some BRICS countries, have unequivocally condemned Hamas's bloody attack on Israel, others, such as Sudan, China and Egypt, have been more ambivalent. Le Monde

After its brutal attack, Hamas is calculating its next move: The Economist reports Hamas’s militants are now preparing for the Israeli ground invasion they assume is imminent.

+ The bodies of 1,500 Hamas terrorists in Israel have been found.

WSJ: Israel sought to contain Hamas for years. Now it faces a potentially costly fight to eliminate it.

+ Israel prepares an operation to either end Hamas’s hold on Gaza or gut its military

+ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that his country’s counterattack had ‘only just begun’ and that Hamas would ‘endure terrible things’


Hamas militants behind Israel attack raised millions in crypto: WSJ reports digital currency transactions highlight how U.S. and Israel have struggled to sever the access of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah to foreign funding.

Top US general warns Iran to stay out of Israel’s conflict with Hamas: FT reports General CQ Brown, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, says Washington hopes to send a ‘strong message’ to Tehran and others in the region.

Politico: Biden confirms Americans held hostage by Hamas


+ 14 Americans dead; some “likely” taken hostage 

+ “This is an act of sheer evil.” -- President Joe Biden

+ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is cutting his Asia codel short due to the unfolding war in Israel and will be back in New York by Thursday night, Punchbowl News reports.


WP: Biden condemns ‘sheer evil’ of Hamas

+ Americans among those taken hostage, he says; Israel’s military ‘moving into the offensive’

Hamas is not the only problem we must reckon with Shimrit Meir

Israel-Hamas conflict was a test for Musk’s X, and it failed: Bloomberg reports researchers say changes to verification, safety policies make the site an unreliable source for news.

Hamas’ gift to Vladimir Putin
: Politico reports Russia is relishing — and partly fueling — chaos in a series of global flashpoints that divert the West’s energies from Ukraine.

Zelensky compares assault by Hamas on Israel to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine: NYT reports Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukraine president, told a NATO meeting that “terror will have no allies” if the world unites against acts of aggression.

Jake Sullivan’s trial by combat: Inside the White House’s battle to keep Ukraine in the fight. The New Yorker 

CNN: Putin banks on wavering support for Ukraine, amid a race against time

Finnish pipeline leak points to ‘external activity,’ president says
: Politico reports the Balticconnector pipeline suffered an “unusual” drop in pressure over the weekend, the grid operator said.

Russia loses vote to rejoin UN Human Rights Council: DW reports Russia has been defeated in its bid to regain a seat on the United Nations' Human Rights Council. 

Police fatally shoot driver who crashed into Chinese consulate in San Francisco: NYT reports the investigation into the episode is continuing, and the authorities have not released the name of the suspect.

+ The shooting occurred after police made contact with the suspect, who had driven into the lobby shouting, “Where is the CCP,” according to bystanders.

NHK: Russian foreign minister to visit China for talks with Beijing's top diplomat

Saudi-China collaboration raises concerns about access to AI chips
: FT reports fears grow at Gulf kingdom’s top university that ties to Chinese researchers risk upsetting US government.

Reuters: US carrier Ronald Reagan to visit South Korea in show of force

Cautious Labour dares to believe it can win
Chris Mason

+ The UK will suffer the highest inflation and slowest growth in the G7 next year, according to the IMF.

+ Research by More in Common suggests voters in red wall seats who voted Tory in 2019 are preparing to switch to Labour at the general election.

+ A YouGov poll for the Scottish Fabian Society shows Labour is closing on the SNP north of the border, with 32 percent saying they would vote for Starmer’s party compared to 33 percent for the nationalists.
 

Biden faces a host of crises and a stress test for his theory of the presidency
: The horrific attack in Israel has created new challenges for the president and his team. They’re keenly aware that they are under the microscope. Politico

AP: Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd suspends long-shot GOP 2024 presidential bid, endorses Nikki Haley

DeSantis amps up attacks on Trump, as GOP primary enters a new phase
: NYT reports the Florida governor had been reluctant to criticize the former president on the trail, but in recent weeks, that has started to change.

Tim Scott, please drop out, urge others to follow and unite behind Haley: To prevent Trump’s nomination, voters need to be given a binary choice. And if Haley wins, Democrats might panic and produce a more viable candidate. George F. Will

+ Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign raised $11 million in the third quarter.

+ Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said he hasn’t ruled out running for president in 2024.


RFK Jr. goes independent. Does that hurt Biden or Trump?
Politico reports recent polling shows he’d be the most formidable independent candidate since Ross Perot.

LAT: Former Dodgers star and Republican Steve Garvey enters US Senate race

The government can ‘get it right’ on AI
: Americans want the federal government to step up, and it already has a head start. Politico

Your medical devices are getting smarter. Can the FDA keep them safe? Use of AI means devices and apps can learn and change over time, creating challenges for regulators who approve them. WSJ

Nikkei: Huawei aims to double smartphone shipments to 70m next year

WP: Caroline Ellison, star witness in Bankman-Fried trial, says he led fraud

Inside FTX’s all-night race to stop a $1 billion crypto heist
: The same chaotic day FTX declared bankruptcy, someone began stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from its coffers. A Wired investigation reveals the company’s “very crazy night” trying to stop them. Wired

Birkenstock prices IPO at $46 a share: WSJ reports the German shoemaker will provide the first big test of the new-issue market since a trio of marquee offerings last month.

FT: Birkenstock valued at $8.6bn after pricing IPO in middle of range

Vermont utility plans to end outages by giving customers batteries
: Green Mountain Power is asking state regulators to let it buy batteries it will install at customers’ homes, saying doing so will be cheaper than putting up more power lines. NYT

Here’s what we do and don’t know about the effects of remote work. Three years into a mass workplace experiment, we are beginning to understand more about how work from home is reshaping workers’ lives and the economy. NYT

HBD: Daryl Hall, lead vocalist, Hall & Oates, Dreamtime (1986), 77.

Guardian: First part of The Crown’s final season to be released on 16 November

+ Part two of the Netflix historical drama will follow in December

+ The final season will cover the 1997 Paris car accident that led to the death of Diana, the driver Henri Paul, and Dodi Fayed, who was seen getting to know Diana in season five.

+ It is also expected to portray the premiership of Tony Blair and the early relationship between Prince William and Kate Middleton.


‘Something is going to happen’: Jerry Seinfeld hints at reunion of his hit 90s sitcom: Comedian suggests at Boston’s Wang Theatre that a re-envisioned Seinfeld finale may be in the works 25 years after series’ end. Guardian

In conversation: Michael Mann: The director on his inspiration rooms, clubbing with cocaine importers, and the obsessive research he did for Ferrari. Bilge Ebiri

BBC: Euro 2028: UEFA confirms UK and Republic of Ireland as tournament hosts

HBD
: Sir Bobby Charlton, footballer, Manchester United (1956-73) and England (1958-70), 86.

A Canadian billionaire takes on Formula One royalty: Canadian fashion billionaire Lawrence Stroll spent years grooming his son as a Formula One pilot. Now, he has decided to go for a world championship with his own team and has Aston Martin edging toward success. Der Spiegel


Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal

To receive ITK Daily by email, subscribe here.

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

Geopolitics is disrupting every business and industry.

Caracal is here to help.

Clients are senior executives responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications who rely on Caracal for help navigating today's interconnected business environment with intelligence, strategy, engagement, and education.

Always Be Communicating.

More @ caracal.global