Argentina, Israel, Sweden, FTC, Lionel Messi, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence for communications pros.
Happy Tuesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
To be ITK, know this:
Argentina Election 2023: Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian, performed worse than polls predicted and will face Sergio Massa, Argentina’s economy minister, in a run-off election on November 19.
A major upset and uncertainty: Argentina heads to run-off: AFP reports despite overseeing record inflation and poverty levels, Argentina's Economy Minister Sergio Massa confounded expectations by scoring the most votes in Sunday's first-round election.
+ After polls closed Massa received the highest number of votes – 8,877,325, accounting for 36.33% of the total, data revealed. Milei received 7,373,876 votes – roughly 30.18%.
Today: Emmanuel Macron to visit Israel.
Military Times: The fight in Gaza will be hell, military experts in urban combat say
How Israelis are preparing to invade Gaza: ‘You go in, weapons firing’: As Israel assembles on the border, veterans of the 2014 conflict reflect on the brutality of close combat in the streets of the Gaza Strip. The Times
AP: Blinken, Austin say US is ready to respond if US personnel become targets of Israel-Hamas war
US says Iran assisting base attacks, confirms advisors in Israel: AFP reports the United States accused Iran on Monday of "actively facilitating" attacks on US forces in the Middle East as it confirmed it had sent a small number of military advisors to Israel.
How far would the US go to defend Israel? BBC
+ Israel says 222 people are known to be held hostage in Gaza.
+ The IDF’s operation to remove Hamas could take months, according to Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister.
+ The State Department told non-essential staffers at the US Embassy in Iraq to leave due to an increase in threats
+ The White House has discussed the US military response if Hezbollah attacks Israel
Israel’s using widespread GPS tampering to deter Hezbollah’s missiles: Politico reports the Israel Defense Forces announced on Oct. 15 that GPS had been “restricted in active combat zones in accordance with various operational needs,” but did not note the extent of the signal disruptions.
Iran’s ayatollahs play the Middle East’s most dangerous game: Economist reports they want to escalate without triggering full-blown war.
How the Israel-Gaza conflict is unfolding in maps, graphics, and videos WP
10 maps to understand Gaza's tumultuous history Le Monde
Netanyahu bears responsibility for the biggest failure in Israel's history: A former elite soldier and army chief, Ehud Barak also served as Israeli prime minister and later led the Defense Ministry. In an interview with Der Spiegel, he discusses the political failures leading up to the Hamas attack and the need for a ground offensive in Gaza. Der Spiegel
Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia WP
The Times: ‘190,000 Russian soldiers’ killed or maimed in Ukraine war
+ British casualty figures reflect toll of amputation on Putin’s invasion
Turkey’s president submits bill to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership: Guardian reports Erdoğan signs protocol and sends it to Turkish parliament after agreeing to Sweden’s membership at NATO summit in July.
+ @SwedishPM: Welcome that President Erdoğan signed Sweden’s ratification protocol to NATO and submitted it to the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye. Parliamentary procedures will now commence. We are looking forward to becoming a member of NATO.
In a world without rules, all frozen conflicts risk erupting: Noting that the use of force is no longer taboo, the former diplomat argues for an acceleration of dialogue between the Global North and South in order to strengthen global security. Michel Duclos
Why markets are relatively calm in the geopolitical storm: Investors as a group don’t act like individuals — their collective mind recognizes risk as a historical constant. Ruchir Sharma
Today: Rishi Sunak will mark his first full year as Tory leader.
BBC: S Jaishankar: India will resume Canada visas if diplomats safe, says minister
AUKUS, critical minerals in focus for Australian PM on US trip: Reuters reports Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will seek progress on the AUKUS defense technology partnership and critical mineral supply chains during a visit to Washington next week, as Canberra tries to reduce its long-term trade exposure to China.
Today: Australian PM Anthony Albanese arrives at the White House for an official visit.
Wednesday: Biden and Albanese hold a bilateral meeting and joint news conference; a state dinner follows.
+ @bluestein: The B-52s will be performing Wednesday for President Joe Biden and the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a state dinner in Washington
Has Australia solved the China puzzle? Twin visits by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to Washington and Beijing underscore Canberra’s delicate geopolitical tightrope walk. Politico
+ China has agreed to review its tariffs on Australian wine imports as PM Anthony Albanese prepares to meet Xi Jinping next month.
+ The Australian government announced Friday it has decided not to cancel a Chinese company’s 99-year lease on the strategically important Darwin Port, despite US concerns that the foreign control could be used to spy on its military forces.
NHK: Ceremony held in Beijing to mark 45th anniversary. of the Japan-China friendship treaty
Beijing stages charm offensive to pave way for Xi trip: Whirlwind of meetings, events precede expected San Francisco summit with Biden; Yao Ming goes to New York. WSJ
China linked to propaganda campaign targeting Trudeau, Poilievre, says Global Affairs: GAC says goal of 'spamouflage' campaign was to silence PRC critics. CBC
Bloomberg: US-China tensions are top geopolitical risk, BlackRock says
USA Today: Cut it out, Americans by more than 2-1 tell the House: Elect a speaker, already
+ An overwhelming 67% say the House should elect a speaker as soon as possible.
+ It is Day 21 without a House speaker.
Speaker vote: Republicans will begin voting today to select its nominee. The election process is relatively straightforward. The lowest vote-getter is booted each round until there’s only one candidate left.
Republicans grapple with being speakerless, but effectively leaderless, too: With a speaker fight in the House, concerns about an aging Senate leader and a 2024 front-runner who has the party in a vise grip, some G.O.P. members worry the turmoil could have long-term effects. NYT
+ The US government funding runs out on November 17, while Biden is seeking $105 billion for wars in Ukraine and Israel, plus aid to Taiwan and new border-security money.
GOP presidential primary: A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential race with 58%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 12% and Nikki Haley at 11%.
+ Team Biden is fretting over potential 2024 spoilers, from Cornel West to RFK Jr. to No Labels, and may need to hammer home the election’s stakes to keep people from, as one strategist put it, “essentially throwing their vote away.”
‘The man broke my heart’: Biden’s Arab-American boosters begin to leave his side: These Arab-Americans were among Biden’s biggest fans. Now they’re warning they — and others — could abandon him in 2024. Politico
'I will never vote Biden': Some Muslim Americans in a key swing state feel betrayed by the president: NBC News reports Muslim and Arab Americans say their support was critical to Biden’s winning Michigan in 2020. Some warn they won’t back him again over his blanket support for Israel.
Grand Old Party: How aging makes you more conservative: Baby Boomers have shifted right. But liberal Millennials and Gen Z are canceling them out. WSJ
CNBC: UAW expands strike to Stellantis pickup truck plant in Michigan
+ The United Auto Workers union is expanding its strike of the three major U.S. automakers to a Stellantis plant that produces Ram full-size pickup trucks.
+ The work stoppage includes roughly 6,800 workers at Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in suburban Detroit.
CNBC: FTC plans to hire child psychologist to guide internet rules
+ The Federal Trade Commission plans to hire at least one child psychologist who can inform its work on internet regulation, Democratic Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya told The Record in an interview published Monday.
+ Bedoya hopes it “can send a strong signal to other law enforcement agencies in the US by saying we need to have these folks in-house such that it’s a standing capacity.”
Bloomberg: Microsoft to invest $3.2 billion to boost AI and tech in Australia
Bloomberg: Moody’s to start letting machines help write analytical reports
AI and the end of photographic truth: Who you gonna believe? Me or your own lying AIs? Politico
Use Brexit freedom to become global AI force, urges tech boss: Dustin Moskovitz, a co-founder of Facebook, is concerned about ‘regulatory friction’ in Europe. The Times
Bloomberg: Japan investigates Google over alleged antitrust violations
+ The FTC said it is looking into Google’s business practices
+ The US is mounting a broad investigation into the company
Reuters: Foxconn faces China tax probe, seen as politically motivated -sources
Mood swing: Global producers in US hunt for China alternatives Reuters
Chevron to buy Hess for $53 billion.
ESG is beyond redemption: May it RIP: The investing framework is now facing a mountain of troubles, almost all of them of its own making. Aswath Damodaran
The stratospheric rise of Lionel Messi’s pink jersey: In the span of three months, the soccer superstar has made Inter Miami’s eye-catching jersey the hottest piece of sports merchandise on the planet. NYT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal produces ITK Daily.
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