Zelensky, Qin Gang, House Republicans, Federal Reserve + Disney, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence.
Happy Wednesday.
Here’s today’s ITK Daily.
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ITK PHL | School + Salon Dinner
Thursday, November 9, 2023
School: 1:30 - 5:00 pm
Salon Dinner: 6:30 - 9:30 pm
Participants can choose to attend the school only, the salon dinner only, or both the school and salon dinner.
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ITK PHL | School is three 45-minute lectures covering:
+ A Battle for Ideas - How we got here
+ Communications - How to talk about it
+ Destination Future - Where we are going
ITK PHL | Salon Dinner is a three-hour gathering with an opening mixer and a family-style meal. The dinner discussion will be moderated and based on the questions and topics curated by the participants.
Book your spot, click here.
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Biden urges UN: Stand united with Ukraine: Politico reports: “No nation can meet the challenges of today alone,” Biden told the UN General Assembly.
AP: US defense chief urges nations to dig deep and give Ukraine more much-needed air defense systems
+ A new Change Research poll, seen in advance by NatSec Daily, found that 63 percent of Americans want the US to continue military support to Ukraine, and 59 percent want aid to continue until Russia leaves the country entirely.
‘Evil cannot be trusted’: Zelenskyy urges reticent countries to side with Ukraine: Politico reports the Ukrainian president warns that Russian aggression will not end in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s fight is the world’s, Zelensky tells UN assembly: NYT reports painting Russia as a nation that seeks to dominate others, President Volodymyr Zelensky cast his appeal for broad support as a matter of global security.
Zelensky tells UN Russia is weaponizing food, energy and children in its war against Ukraine: Le Monde reports addressing the 78th United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, the Ukraine president also described the abduction of children to Russia as a 'genocide.'
CNN: Azerbaijan launches operation against Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh
WP: Fighting flares between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh
+ Nagorno-Karabakh authorities say 25 people have been killed in Azerbaijan military operation so far
Azerbaijan's bombardment of Nagorno-Karabakh illustrates waning of Moscow's influence: Le Monde reports whether through political calculation or a lack of military resources monopolized by the war in Ukraine, Moscow has abandoned its role as arbiter and guarantor in the Caucasus region.
Japan's new jet fighter alliance pushes limits of defense policy: Nikkei reports the collaboration with UK and Italy forces Tokyo to reconsider constitutional restrictions on arms exports.
Bloomberg: China’s worst capital outflow in years spells more yuan pressure
+ Outflow from capital account was the largest since 2015
+ Reversal of flows depends on monetary policy, economic outlook
We shouldn’t call ‘peak China’ just yet: Yes, there are deep structural problems in the economy, but this is also a country with significant strengths. Martin Wolf
China’s former foreign minister ousted after alleged affair, senior officials told: WSJ reports Qin Gang remains under investigation for possible national security violations, according to people familiar with the matter.
+ The officials were further told that the probe found that Qin had engaged in an extramarital affair that led to the birth of a child in the US, two of the people said.
China walks fine line with eye on summits with Biden, Putin: Nikkei reports a string of high-level meetings lays the groundwork for possible fall meetings.
UK AI summit: China has been invited to Sunak’s upcoming AI summit in London.
+ The invite to Beijing has ruffled feathers, especially among the UK’s allies in the G7.
No, Europe won't be ready for Trump 2.0 either: Credit to Germany’s Baerbock for trying, but Europe is nowhere near prepared for the potential shock. Marc Champion
Bloomberg: Macron and Starmer discuss Trump, sidestep Brexit in talks
+ UK opposition leader, French president had first formal talks
+ Starmer hands Macron an Arsenal football shirt as a gift
Keir Starmer wants to rewrite the Brexit deal? Good – and he shouldn’t hold back: The Labour leader says he wants to foster a ‘closer’ trading relationship with the EU. I recommend a return to the customs union. Simon Jenkins
+ The UK is set to have the highest inflation in the G7 in 2023, and the second lowest growth, according to the latest projections from the OECD.
Bloomberg: Tony Blair says Britain can carve out economic niche as AI hub
+ Former premier says AI revolution is top issue for politicians
+ Says reversing Brexit and Britain returning to EU is ‘tricky’
Politico: Kemi Badenoch cools talk of imminent UK-India trade deal
+ ‘We will get there when we have a deal which is mutually beneficial for India and the UK,’ says British trade secretary.
Journalist detained, home searched over reporting on French intelligence, news outlet says: AP reports Disclose said reporter Ariane Lavrilleux’s detention was linked to her reporting on leaked documents implicating French intelligence’s alleged role in the Egyptian government’s alleged targeting of civilians.
French journalist taken into custody over revelations on France's military cooperation with Egypt: Le Monde reports Ariane Lavrilleux, a journalist for Disclose who helped shed light on suspected civilian deaths in a French-Egyptian counter-terrorism operation by revealing secret documents in 2021, was taken in for questioning by police in the south of France.
Biden aides and Saudis explore defense treaty modeled after Asian pacts: NYT reports a security agreement resembling those with Japan or South Korea is part of President Biden’s push to get Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel.
Globe + Mail: Trudeau accuses India in killing of Sikh leader on Canadian soil
Canada expels diplomat amid allegations India involved in killing Canadian: Politico reports Justin Trudeau says national security institutions are pursuing “credible” allegations.
+ The diplomat is the head of India’s foreign intelligence agency operations in Canada, Pavan Kumar Rai
+ Canada updates travel advisory regarding India, advises nationals to 'exercise a high degree of caution'
Canada’s allies rebuff its requests to join in accusations against India: WP reports weeks before Canada aired an explosive allegation that Indian officials may be behind the slaying of a Sikh separatist leader, Canadian officials asked its closest allies, including the United States, to publicly condemn the murder but were rebuffed, underscoring the diplomatic balancing act facing the Biden administration and its allies as they work to court an Asian power seen as a crucial counterweight to China.
India needs to stop the bleeding from Canada killing: Rather than simply denying involvement, the government should cooperate as publicly as it can in the investigation of the murder of a Sikh activist. Mihir Sharma
Biden’s efforts to court India challenged by assassination claim: WP reports the president has aggressively wooed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a counterweight to China. A claim that India killed a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil complicates that effort.
Anxiety ripples through the Democratic Party over Biden: Persistent concerns over Biden’s age come amid a series of polls showing he’s neck-and-neck with Trump. WP
Trump on the CO ballot: A Colorado judge said Monday she hopes to decide by Thanksgiving whether the 14th Amendment’s ban on insurrectionists holding office means former President Donald Trump is disqualified from appearing on the state’s presidential ballot in 2024, CNN reports.
House GOP in open warfare over doomed spending plan: Politico reports one Republican summed up the situation neatly as leadership-empowered negotiators faceplanted with days to go before a shutdown: “It’s a mess.”
WP: House flounders as GOP fails to appease hard-right members on funding
Republican infighting paralyzes the House as some call a shutdown inevitable: NBC News reports with 11 days to go until a government shutdown, a House GOP stalemate over messaging bills is deepening.
Right-wing House Republicans derail Pentagon GOP bill, rebuking McCarthy: NYT reports the floor defeat underscored the GOP resistance Speaker Kevin McCarthy was facing as he struggled to round up votes to avoid a government shutdown.
Shutdown threatens Ukraine training, weapons deliveries: Politico reports funding for the shipments of weapons from DOD’s stockpiles would continue.
QOTD: “It’s a shit show in the House. It’s always a shit show in the House… Eventually, what’s going to happen is a government shutdown will not go well for us.” -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
+ The House Oversight Committee will hold the first hearing on the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden on September 28.
Mitt Romney, Rory Stewart and the tragedy of politics: In public life, unlike in business, there is no reward for being right. Janan Ganesh
Strike is a high-stakes gamble for autoworkers and the labor movement: NYT reports experts on unions and the industry said the UAW strike could accelerate a wave of worker actions, or stifle labor’s recent momentum.
Biden EV agenda threatens US auto industry Senator JD Vance (R-OH)
Bloomberg: Fed set to pause rate hikes, but don’t count out another increase
Fed creeps toward next phase in its fight against inflation: NYT reports the Federal Reserve is unlikely to declare victory this week. But investors will watch for any hint that the end to rate increases is coming.
The Fed’s next challenge: $100 oil: WSJ reports Saudi output cuts and record demand have pushed crude prices 26% higher this quarter.
The average monthly payment on a $400,000 mortgage in the United States:
+ 2 years ago: $1,600
+ Now: $2,700
The unexpected new winners in the global energy war: Western nations are forging unusual alliances to replace natural gas from Russia. “We pushed the accelerator to the maximum.” WSJ
Most-powerful CEOs hedge bets in new era of economic upheaval Bloomberg
CNBC: Meet Airbnb’s official party pooper, who reduced partying by 55% in two years
+ As the person in charge of Airbnb’s worldwide ban on parties, Naba Banerjee has spent more than three years figuring out how to battle party “collusion” by users, flag “repeat party houses” and, most of all, design an anti-party AI system.
+ The AI models look at hundreds of factors, including the reservation’s closeness to the user’s birthday, the user’s age, length of stay, the listing’s proximity to where the user is based, weekend vs. weekday, and whether the listing is in a popular location.
+ There was a global 55% drop in parties reported on Airbnb between August 2020 and August 2022, according to the company, and since the worldwide launch of Banerjee’s system in May, more than 320,000 guests have been blocked or redirected from booking attempts.
Disney to invest $60 billion in theme parks, cruises over next decade: WSJ reports parks revenue has long been a bright spot that has helped the company offset losses from its streaming division and other areas.
Accor CEO Sébastien Bazin: 'In five years, China's hotel industry will have surpassed that of the US': The chief executive of the world's sixth-largest hotel group shares his vision of the future of tourism. Le Monde
CNBC: Microsoft projects two new areas of growth for gaming, leaked document says: Mobile and ads
+ A Microsoft presentation from 2022 showed how the company could quickly grow revenue from mobile purchases and advertising over the next few years.
+ The Activision Blizzard deal would give Microsoft a leg up in those categories.
Bloomberg: Amazon to hire 250,000 logistics workers for holidays, boost hourly wages
AFP: Ohtani undergoes elbow surgery, tipped for 'full recovery'
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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