Azerbaijan officially dissolves Nagorno-Karabakh, Merkel prevents Ukraine in NATO, 8VC targets Japan's defense industry, The 21st century’s great wealth transfer, Russians queue up to see Barbie, plus 1,000 more actionable insights.
ITK Daily is geopolitical business intelligence.
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Azerbaijan officially dissolves Nagorno-Karabakh: Politico reports tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians flee their homes in the breakaway region after Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Terror and humiliation for Armenians fleeing the separatist enclave: Before being evacuated to Armenia, the refugees endured personal searches, intimidation, and ridicule from the Azerbaijanis. All the men who had fought in the war burned their military possessions to survive. Le Monde
FT: Armenians ‘lose motherland’ in blow to Russia’s influence abroad
Merkel's leading roll in preventing Ukraine in NATO: The day the war really began: In April 2008, NATO deliberated on admitting Ukraine as a new member as a show of strength against Vladimir Putin. Washington favored the move, but the Germans thwarted the plan. A reconstruction of a decision that ended in disaster. Der Spiegel
Ukraine makes clear it won’t accept second-class EU membership: Politico reports Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tells Politico Ukraine has met all the criteria to begin accession talks with the EU.
Ukraine faces a new challenge: The exodus of women and teenagers: Le Monde reports the departure of mothers with their children is likely to exacerbate the lack of new Ukrainian recruits over the next few years, as the confrontation with Russia turns into a war of attrition.
This is what is worrying me about the war in Ukraine David French
The dubious advisory gigs of Germany’s ex-intelligence chief: August Hanning, the former president of Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, finds himself in the spotlight once again. Reporting by Der Spiegel has unveiled a series of questionable advisory engagements he has undertaken since leaving public office. Der Spiegel
France's Macron proposes 'autonomy' for island of Corsica: AFP reports French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to introduce legislation that would 'fully anchor Corsica in the French Republic and recognize the uniqueness of its Mediterranean island nature.'
Elisabeth Borne, a tough prime minister made fragile: Just a month after a remarkable political performance in France's north, Borne unleashed a controversial parliamentary measure at the Assemblée Nationale on Wednesday, September 27, leaving herself at the mercy of a vote of no confidence. Le Monde
NHK: Philippines, US to kick off joint naval exercise with partners
Reuters: Taiwan reveals first domestically made submarine in defense milestone
Taiwan unveils 'Narwhal,' its first home-built submarine: Nikkei reports President Tsai says democratic island has achieved 'mission impossible.'
Time for the UN to recognize Taiwan’s voice: By legitimizing the aggressor in the Taiwan Strait and ignoring Taiwan’s existence, the UN is failing in its mission. Jonas Parello-Plesner
+ Jonas Parello-Plesner is the executive director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.
AP: North Korean leader urges greater nuclear weapons production in response to a ‘new Cold War’
US venture capital firm 8VC targets Japan's defense industry: Managing partner Lonsdale says Tokyo needs 'strong defense to deter China.' Nikkei
Chinese hackers stole 60,000 State Dept. emails in breach reported in July: NYT reports the disclosure by department officials to Senate staff members revealed the scope of the hack of government email accounts managed through Microsoft.
WP: China takes back pandas from zoos in the US and UK
Chinese defense chief's monthlong absence slows military diplomacy: Nikkei reports Li Shangfu missed meetings with foreign military leaders, fueling speculation.
US-China talks gain momentum, paving way for Xi-Biden summit: WSJ reports both governments are discussing Washington visits by a senior Chinese economic-policy official and the foreign minister.
Feeding the world once brought the US untold influence—no more Bloomberg
US leadership in artificial intelligence can shape the 21st-century global order: The US can no longer rely on trade incentives to attract partners. Instead, US foreign policy should center on its dominant position in the next driver of global growth: AI. Michael Frank
Caracal Insight | AI, America's allies, and China
As we head into the 2024 US presidential election, my geopolitical mantras of "good politics rarely makes good economics" and "China doesn't have a vote in American elections" will be front and center.
Any appearance of softening or suggesting more engagement with China will be a political liability for Team Biden in a national campaign where Republicans want to portray Biden as soft on China, and the frequent use of "Chinese Communist Party" by the GOP makes for an intense environment.
In an intense environment where AI is just starting, coupled with America's allies needing to engage China, and where China can not be seen just as a potential adversary.
Buckle up.
Full post, click here.
The promise — and peril — of generative AI: This technology is readily accessible and usable at extraordinary speed and scale. John Thornhill
Bloomberg: Mexico keeps 11.25% rate with inflation threats, fast growth
FT: Argentina risks hyperinflation after election giveaways and dollar pledge
Why Indians can’t stand Justin Trudeau: He’s seen as a lightweight and a panderer, which heightens the outrage over his accusations. Sadanand Dhume
Bloomberg: Biden hits at Trump over EV criticism in fight for union support
Biden and Trump woo the UAW in Michigan: A study of US manufacturing decline shows the risks of a too-costly union contracts. WSJ - Editorial
Bill Ford on politicians getting involved in UAW strike: 'It doesn't help our company' Phoebe Wall Howard
An EV is fast becoming a political statement and not a transportation option.
The auto industry needs to confront this political comms challenge quickly.
Alarmed Republicans are preparing to draft Glenn Youngkin Robert Costa
Newsom is in the spin room to pump up Biden, and maybe himself: Gavin Newsom predictably declared Joe Biden the winner of the second GOP debate. Another big winner? Gavin Newsom. NYT
WP: Kari Lake plans to announce Senate run next month
The Times: Oil price close to $100 a barrel after fall in US stocks
FT: US mortgage rates hit highest level since 2000
US races to fortify power grid against extreme weather: WSJ reports the Energy Department has announced more than $1 billion in grants this year.
US warns green transition raises ‘complex’ China security concerns: FT reports Beijing is prepared to weaponize its control of mineral sectors vital to renewable power, says energy secretary Jennifer Granholm.
TEPCO to start second round of treated water release on Oct. 5: NHK reports Tokyo Electric Power Company says it will start the second round of the release of treated and diluted water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the ocean on October 5.
$67 billion of rare minerals is buried under one of the world’s biggest carbon sinks: A fight is brewing in Canada about how, or whether, to dig out materials essential for EV batteries that lie deep beneath vast peat bogs. WSJ
Mineral-hungry clean tech sees countries seeking to escape China's shadow: AFP reports with a clean energy transition hungry for more minerals, representatives from dozens of countries and industry met in Paris on Thursday looking to shore up deliveries against supply chain snarls and geopolitical tensions.
Nvidia’s French offices raided in competition inquiry: WSJ reports France’s competition authority, which carried out the raid, has expressed concerns that cloud-computing companies could exclude smaller competitors.
FT: Thousands of Apple customers complain latest iPhone models are overheating
Bloomberg: Microsoft discussed selling Bing to Apple as Google replacement
Bloomberg: Character AI in early talks for funding at more than $5 billion valuation
FT: OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture
China EV price wars drive Mitsubishi from market: Nikkei reports midsize automakers struggle to compete with local rivals as the economy cools.
Honda prologue aims for Biden's EV subsidies with US launch: Nikkei reports the automaker develops an all-electric SUV with GM to capture the North American market.
Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia targets 70 million international visitors a year
Changing of the guard: What does it mean that tens of trillions of dollars are now moving from the Baby Boomers to the Millennials and Generation Z? Martin Raymond on the causes and effects of the twenty-first century’s great wealth transfer. The Signal
Russians queue up to see Barbie film despite sanctions: BBC reports officially, the Barbie movie isn't showing in Russia. But unofficially… the Barbie film is pulling in the crowds at the multiplex opposite, despite Western sanctions. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a string of Hollywood studios stopped releasing their movies in Russia. But unauthorized copies are getting through and being dubbed into Russian.
Bloomberg: Henry Kravis, Endeavor, Fenway Eye PGA Tour deal to rival Saudi Arabia’s
FT: ESPN nears broadcast deal with Tiger Woods’ golf league
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
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