Caracal Global Daily
March 11, 2026
Washington, DC
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The costs of the war in Iran are mounting faster than the White House expected: Congress is beginning to notice.
2. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most dangerous chokepoint right now: Iran's ability to mine it gives Tehran escalation dominance even as its military crumbles.
3. Trump's visit to Beijing starts March 31: The first presidential visit to China since 2017 signals a strategic pivot that will reshape trade, tech, and geopolitical alignments.
4. Energy markets are repricing permanently: LNG, oil, helium, sulfur — the Iran war is not just an oil story. It is a global commodities shock in motion.
5. Congress is ceding war power to the executive: The institutional balance is shifting in ways that will define American foreign policy long after the Iran conflict ends.
*** Ross Rant ***
The war nobody planned to win
Eleven days into Operation Epic Fury, the most honest thing anyone in Washington can say is this: the United States started a war without an endstate.
Here is the pattern business leaders need to understand.
The Iran war is not one crisis. It is five overlapping crises arriving simultaneously: a munitions sustainability problem, an energy market shock, a Hormuz chokepoint that gives Tehran leverage despite military losses, a humanitarian emergency in Lebanon that is escalating rapidly, and a multi-decade allied coalition fracturing along national-interest lines in real time. France is playing broker. Germany is warning against endless war. Canada has drawn a clean line. The coalition of the willing does not exist in this Middle East conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz dimension deserves direct attention. Iran does not need to win militarily to destabilize global commerce. It only needs to mine the strait, threaten shipping, and raise transit costs. The US reports it has destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers. That is not reassurance — it is confirmation that the threat is active and ongoing. The LNG tankers already rerouting from Europe to Asia are the market's honest assessment of the risk.
Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing starting on March 31. This diplomatic visit to the Middle Kingdom is the most consequential signal inside all of this noise. A presidential visit to China while actively engaged in the Middle East conflict tells you something essential: Washington is managing its great power relationships carefully and does not want a two-front strategic environment. That visit will reshape the trade, technology, and geopolitical operating environment for the rest of 2026. Every company with US-China exposure should be watching the agenda, the tone, and what does not get said.
Three concrete implications for executives reading this today.
First, energy costs are not a short-term problem. They are a structural repricing that will shadow your cost base into 2027. Model it explicitly. Saudi Aramco's CEO used the word "catastrophic" if the Iran war drags on. He does not use language carelessly.
Second, the expansion of executive power documented in the Washington Post this week is not temporary. The president has started a war and levied sweeping tariffs, marking a major expansion of executive power at the expense of the legislative branch. Congress has ceded war authority and tariff authority to the White House with minimal resistance. That means policy can move faster, with less predictability, and with fewer legislative circuit breakers than your government affairs team is probably modeling. Update the assumption.
Third, supply chain repositioning is no longer a planning exercise. Apple now makes about 25% of iPhones in India after its China pivot. The company assembled about 55 million iPhones in India in 2025, up from 36 million a year earlier, with India's share of the total increasing rapidly. The companies that moved early are building durable cost and resilience advantages. The window is open — but it is not unlimited.
The war in Iran will end eventually. However, the volatility of global commerce will not end. The conflict has accelerated: energy market instability, allied fragmentation, executive branch unilateralism, and the great-power realignment are evident in every headline this week.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates: WP reports the figure, accounting for the war’s first two days, is likely to intensify concerns in Congress that US forces are churning through a scarce supply of advanced weaponry.
Can the US sustain its war in Iran? Trump says the US has a "virtually unlimited" supply of weapons. His defense secretary says Iran has "no hope" of outlasting the US. But with reportedly low defensive missile stocks, how bullish should Washington be? DW
Iran’s cheap, plentiful weaponry puts US military under unprecedented strain: As the conflict extends towards a third week, an arsenal of attack drones and ballistic missiles has helped make Tehran unlike any adversary the US has faced. Bloomberg
Pentagon says 140 troops wounded in Operation Epic Fury: Politico reports the update provides the clearest accounting so far of US casualties tied to the Iran conflict, which has involved the deaths of seven US troops as of Monday.
The Trump team’s evolving messages on Iran: A look at how the reasons for war, along with objectives and timing, have shifted since the air assault began. WSJ
Trump seeks way out of Iran war but struggles to define it: Speaking from Florida on Monday, the US president highlighted Washington's military successes but failed to offer a clear path out of the conflict, fueling the impression of ongoing improvisation. Le Monde
Shifting sands? Trump and his elastic timeline for Iran war: AFP reports President Donald Trump announced he was sending US forces into war with Iran on February 28, kicking off a multidimensional regional conflict -- and a series of contradictory declarations on the American mission's scope and timeline.
There is no easy exit to Trump’s war: The US and Israeli attacks on Iran will leave the Middle East in greater turmoil. FT-Editorial
Taco on Iran will come too late for Trump: The US president has already done lasting damage to international trust in America. Edward Luce
How the Iran War is related to the real winner of the Iraq War 20 years ago Fortune
Trump’s Venezuela strategy has failed in Iran: The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei has dashed the US president’s hope of picking Iran’s new leader. Gideon Rachman
America’s war aims may be diverging from Israel’s: For Binyamin Netanyahu, they are, as ever, a question of politics. Economist
US showers Iran with bombs in most intense strikes of the war, Pentagon says: NYT reports Iranians cowered under the barrage as Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, said the US aimed to wipe out Iran’s capacity to obtain nuclear weapons “forever.”
Iranian military shows it knows how to adapt, US officials say: Iran appears to be targeting what it views as American vulnerabilities, including air defenses meant to guard troops and assets in the region. NYT
The first AI war: US and Israel use Iran to test autonomous tech: Questions have been raised about whether artificial intelligence misidentified the Iranian school that was bombed, killing 110 children and dozens of others. The Times
The ‘number station’ sending mystery messages to Iran: Radio station is broadcasting what appears to be coded orders in Farsi, echoing the Cold War. FT
Bloomberg: Trump warns Iran against laying mines in Strait of Hormuz
US ‘destroys 16 Iranian minelayers near Strait of Hormuz’: The Times reports Trump says Tehran will face ‘never seen before’ military repercussions if key shipping lane is sabotaged.
Macron vaunts French military 'power' aboard aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean: Le Monde reports from the flagship of the French navy, the Charles de Gaulle. The president emphasized the need to protect French citizens and allies on Monday and said he hoped Paris could contribute to the 'de-escalation' of the conflict.
France scales up anti-drone measures to industrial level as threat rises: Le Monde reports that as the government prepares to change the law to strengthen protection for sensitive sites, the industry is gearing up for a boom in the anti-drone market.
Germany’s Merz warns against ‘endless war’ in Iran: Politico reports the German chancellor expressed concern that there’s no “common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”
Canada will ‘never participate’ in Iran offensive, Mark Carney says: Toronto Star reports: ‘Canada supports the necessity to prevent Iran’s nuclear program and the export of terrorism,’ Carney said.
Three ways the Iran war could end — and the implications for the UK: From a swift end to months of disruption, the length of the conflict will determine the fate of oil prices, inflation, and growth. The Times
Nearly 700,000 displaced by war in Lebanon, UN says: NYT reports mass evacuation orders and an intensifying Israeli bombing campaign targeting the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah have caused a humanitarian crisis, aid groups warn.
Fresh Israeli strikes hit Lebanon after evacuation warnings: AFP reports fresh Israeli strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs and south Lebanon on Tuesday after the Israeli army warned people to evacuate, with Lebanese authorities saying nearly 760,000 people had been registered as displaced.
Israel rejects Lebanon’s request for ‘cessation’ in fighting to allow for talks: FT reports meeting between two longstanding enemies could take place in Cyprus.
Bloomberg: Iran's Hormuz control gives country leverage despite military struggles
+ Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz provides a means to escalate the conflict, which could lead to peace negotiations or global turmoil.
+ The regime's military is largely destroyed, but it sees the conflict as an existential threat and is willing to endure massive hardship rather than capitulate.
+ Iran's ability to target the global economy, including mining the Strait of Hormuz or destroying oil infrastructure, gives it "escalation dominance" and a say in what happens next.
It’s not just oil. The war in Iran is disrupting the supply of many essential goods. Prices of some commodities are already rising, while stockpiles of others could dwindle as the war drags on. NYT
LNG tankers change course away from Europe as Asian spot prices surge: Nikkei reports that the Iran war is sparking Asian supply concerns amid a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply: FT reports that ship-tracking data show gas carriers switching course as prices rise.
Soaring fuel prices to cast long shadow across US economy: FT reports industries from farming to airlines face long-term higher costs and will raise customer prices in response.
America has become an agent of chaos in world energy markets: A succession of US foreign policy choices has destabilised the oil industry. Emma Ashford
Donald Trump’s options to cool oil prices are sorely limited: He says he has a plan. It would need to be very cunning. Economist
Deleted tweet from Energy Secretary sends oil markets on another wild ride: WSJ reports that a now-erased post from Chris Wright whipsawed crude for the second straight session.
WSJ: IEA proposes largest ever oil release from strategic reserves
Saudi Aramco warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ if Iran war drags on: FT reports oil producer is racing to restore 70% of normal shipments, chief executive says.
Ottawa eyeing moves to boost oil production amid global supply shock: G+M reports the oil sector has been asked to assess crude quantities available for release into the market as the war in Iran escalates, and the Energy Minister says.
Iran conflict triggers losses for Citadel, Millennium, and Point72: Big-name hedge funds hit by big dollar-figure losses amid market upheaval. WSJ
Citadel and ExodusPoint stung by Iran war turmoil: FT reports multi-manager hedge funds have suffered losses amid huge volatility in oil and bond prices.
Short sellers target Wizz Air as Iran war wipes out profit: FT reports budget airline’s CEO says crisis is ‘more manageable’ than others after forecasting €50mn hit to its bottom line.
Big Tech’s uncertain future in the Persian Gulf: The expanding war in the Middle East has added new risks to the trillions of dollars in investments that tech companies have planned in the region. NYT
Shooting in Toronto targets US consulate building: WSJ reports authorities call the gunfire a national-security incident.
US consulate shooting in Toronto dubbed ‘national security incident’ as federal and local police search for two suspects: Toronto Star reports police are looking for two men who were seen travelling in a white Honda CRV. No injuries were reported after the shooting early Tuesday.
Carney denounces shots fired at US consulate in Toronto as intimidation: G+M reports RCMP say police will be stepping up patrols and security around the consulate.
India eases FDI rules in likely opening for Chinese investment: Nikkei reports the move marks the latest sign of rapprochement between the two Asian giants.
Trump to make three-day visit to China next month, White House says: Al Jazeera reports the three-day trip, at Beijing’s invitation, comes more than eight years after Trump’s first visit to China during his first stint as president.
+ Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2, the White House has said, in what will be the first official visit to Beijing by a United States president since Trump’s last trip there in 2017.
There are 56 ethnicities in China, and 55 are getting squashed: China wants its minorities decorative, but not distinct. Economist
Xi’s export juggernaut is leaving China’s factory workers behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Apple now makes about 25% of iPhones in India after China pivot
+ Apple Inc. increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there, reflecting the US company’s efforts to avoid tariffs on China.
+ The company assembled about 55 million iPhones in India in 2025, up from 36 million a year earlier, with India’s share of the total increasing rapidly.
+ Apple is deepening and widening its local supplier partnerships to make components, including lithium-ion cells, watch and phone enclosures, and accessories such as AirPods, as part of its long-term supply chain strategy
How one man’s prediction fueled fears of a 2027 Taiwan invasion: A US conclusion about China’s military plans quickly became a deadline for battle preparations. WSJ
Fukushima's corporate comeback 15 years after Japan's worst disaster: Industry has recovered from the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, but many workers have yet to return. Nikkei
France calls for new funding for civil nuclear energy: Le Monde reports that at the second World Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on Tuesday, EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen also announced a strategy to support investments in small modular reactors, backed by a €200 million guarantee.
Harry, William, and the royal rift that won’t heal: A schism in the House of Windsor looks irreconcilable. Inside the rift between Prince Harry and Prince William that could linger for decades to come. WSJ
Ford confirms plan to seize land from Toronto to expand island airport: Ontario Premier says he plans to compensate the city for the value of the land as well as any lost revenue. CBC
How polar geopolitics are creeping into the Arctic Winter Games: As youth from across the circumpolar North gather in Whitehorse, diplomats huddle on the sidelines. CBC
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Why Congress keeps handing Trump its power: The president has started a war and levied sweeping tariffs, marking a major expansion of executive power at the expense of the legislative branch. WP
Democrats demand Hegseth and Rubio testify on Iran war: NYT reports Senate Democratic leaders called on President Trump to dispatch the senior cabinet officials to make the case to Congress and the American public for the war in Iran.
Trump's sons back launch of new military drone company: FT reports the company will go public through a merger with a Nasdaq-listed operator of Florida golf courses.
Lost Latino love could cost Republicans the midterms: Trump’s much-vaunted success with Hispanics is turning to ashes. Economist
Bloomberg: Billionaire Brin now bets on Republican to govern California
+ Sergey Brin is spending millions of dollars to influence California politics, backing two rival gubernatorial candidates and other political efforts.
+ Brin is funding the campaigns of Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan, and has also donated to a pro-business political group, Building a Better California.
+ Brin's donations mark a turning point for him in California politics, despite his recent relocation to Nevada, and he has emerged as one of the largest political donors in the state's upcoming elections.
Vance or Rubio in ’28? It’s a question Trump can’t stop asking: The president has lately extolled the secretary of state amid the second term’s focus on foreign policy, but many see the vice president as a better heir to the MAGA empire. WSJ
Iran war elevates Marco Rubio in Trump's 2028 succession jockeying: NBC News reports Trump has been informally polling his circle of friends and advisers about the 2028 election, which could pit some of his top administration officials against one another.
JD Vance to headline fundraising tour as Republicans gear up for midterms: FT reports US vice-president’s drive comes as concerns over cost of living and Iran war weigh on support for the party.
Kamala Harris is buying time — but Democrats are looking ahead: Her extended book tour keeps 2028 in play. But conversations with Democrats suggest the party may already be searching for its next standard-bearer. Politico
How Jeffrey Epstein pulled Bill Gates and Microsoft into a web of sex, money, and secrets: How a convicted sex offender became a seven-figure negotiator for Microsoft’s No. 2 executive is the story of how Epstein got into the inner circle of Gates. Fortune
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI incites a new wave of grieving parents fighting for online safety: Blaming chatbots, they are joining an earlier push for better protections by parents who say social media contributed to their children’s deaths. NYT
Mother of British Columbia shooting victim sues OpenAI: NYT reports the company banned the shooter’s ChatGPT account but did not alert the authorities, a move that amounted to fatal negligence, the family claims.
Anthropic’s standoff with the Pentagon shakes up AI talent race: A dispute over how AI can be used by the military shows top employees are looking for more than just nine-figure pay packages. WSJ
Microsoft backs Anthropic in legal fight with the Pentagon: FT reports that the software giant is throwing its weight behind the AI start-up’s lawsuit challenging its designation as a supply chain risk.
AI 'man camps' offer golf, free steaks to lure workers in Texas: As data centers boom, developers are rushing to build housing and amenities in remote locales. Bloomberg
Fortune: AI could give you a 15-hour workweek. It’s not playing out that way
‘AI brain fry’ is real — and it’s making workers more exhausted, not more productive, new study finds Fortune
A new wave of disrupters takes on American health care: Patients are unhappy. Can AI help? Economist
Meta acquires Moltbook, the social network just for AI bots: NYT reports Matt Schlicht, the site’s creator, helped kick off Silicon Valley’s obsession with artificial intelligence agents. Two months later, he will join the Meta Superintelligence Lab.
Oracle raises 2027 sales view as AI demand outpaces supply: WSJ reports cloud-computing company restructures development teams as AI models become more efficient.
Sheryl Sandberg and Nick Clegg join Nvidia-backed AI start-up Nscale: FT reports cloud provider raises $2bn in largest deal of its kind for a European tech start-up.
Nvidia invests in Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab: WSJ reports the startup, founded by OpenAI’s former CTO, plans to deploy at least one gigawatt of Nvidia chips as part of a new partnership.
Yann LeCun’s AI start-up raises more than $1bn in Europe’s largest seed round: FT reports Meta’s former chief AI scientist launches AMI Labs with backing from Nvidia, Temasek, and Jeff Bezos.
Polymarket taps Palantir AI to police sports betting before it’s too late: Fortune reports Polymarket will use a software developed by Palantir and investment holding company TWG Global to monitor sports betting on its platform in the US, Bloomberg reported. Last year, Palantir and TWG Global formed a joint venture to expand AI adoption in financial institutions—this new platform will screen for participants who are already banned from sports betting. “Our partnership with Palantir and TWG AI allows us to apply world-class analytics and monitoring to sports markets,” CEO Shayne Coplan said in a statement to Bloomberg.
Bill Ackman filed to list a new closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA, on the New York Stock Exchange. As part of a dual listing, investors will also receive shares in Ackman’s parent hedge-fund management company.
Tokenized stocks are coming to a market near you: Five things to know: Big US exchanges are working on plans to offer digital tokens that mimic shares and trade 24/7. WSJ
BioNTech founders step down to start new venture: DW reports that Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci were instrumental in developing the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the West. Now they say they "are ready to become pioneers once again."
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
Twelve seats. One conversation. No PowerPoints.
Brigadoon is coming to Washington, DC for an intimate salon dinner bringing together a carefully curated group of thinkers, builders, and leaders for an evening of genuine dialogue around topics shaping business and culture.
This isn't a networking event. It's something better.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Noma loses American Express sponsorship after report of past abuse by its chef: Two companies have withdrawn from a series of dinners in Los Angeles after The New York Times reported allegations that René Redzepi attacked workers.
Storage is the new status symbol: Why tuck away a $1 million car or six-figure Birkin bag when you can stage it like art? Bloomberg
Why Hamnet should win the best picture Oscar: By forefronting Jessie Buckley’s Agnes at the expense of her megastar husband, this female-directed feminist fest gives voice to the anguished howls of disenfranchised women everywhere. Guardian
*** Sport ***
No snow, no refund: weird weather tests Big Ski’s business model: Vail’s attempt to lock in revenue with its annual pass has come adrift because of rising prices amid less of the white stuff. FT
CVC sports empire signs €3.5bn debt deal after stake sale falters: Private equity firm agrees financing with KKR and Pimco after failing to convince investors to commit to large equity deal. FT
Two more members of Iran women's football team claim asylum in Australia: AFP reports two more members of Iran's visiting women's football team have claimed asylum in Australia after they were branded "traitors" at home over a pre-match protest, the government said Wednesday.
Fortune: Professional sports are desperate to reach female fans. So why did an NBA team try to host an event with a strip club?
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 11
