Caracal Global Daily
March 31, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Oil crosses $100 + Hormuz stays shut: Brent crude has surged 56% in March alone, with fears of $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This isn't an energy story. It's a margin compression, supply chain, and inflation story for every company that touches global trade, which is most of them.
2. Trump's Iran gamble is getting harder to reverse: The White House is floating ground forces to extract Iran's uranium. A nuclear-adjacent military mission inside Iran isn't a tactical option — it's a strategic redefinition of the conflict. Former UK Foreign Secretary William Hague's warning in The Times carries weight: this risks becoming irreversible, and the advantage may already be shifting to Russia and China.
3. China replaces growth targets with loyalty tests: The Economist's report on Chinese officials optimizing for Xi Jinping's approval over GDP signals a structural shift in how Beijing governs its economy. For multinationals still banking on China's growth story: the underlying incentive architecture just changed. Xi needs to keep the Party going, literally.
4. Artemis II launches Wednesday. The Moon race is back on: NASA's first crewed lunar mission since 1972 lifts off April 1. Four astronauts. Ten days. One very loud signal to Beijing that American space leadership is not conceding ground. The business implications extend beyond aerospace.
5. States are breaking with the Feds on AI: The federal preemption strategy on AI regulation is not holding. Companies operating across state lines face compliance complexity that is building quietly and will arrive loudly.
*** Ross Rant ***
The Moon is now geopolitical
Wednesday evening at 6:24 pm ET, four astronauts will climb aboard an Orion capsule atop the world's most powerful rocket and begin a 10-day journey around the Moon and back. It will be the first time humans have traveled to the lunar vicinity since December 1972. The coverage will focus on the spectacle. The countdown clock. The launch pad footage—the human drama of four people heading into deep space.
That's fine. Watch the launch. It's worth watching. But don't let the spectacle crowd out the signal.
Artemis II isn't a science mission. It's a geopolitical statement. And every CEO, board member, and senior executive operating in today's global business environment needs to understand why.
Here's the context: China has a lunar program. It is not hypothetical. Beijing has landed robotic missions on the far side of the Moon. It has announced a crewed landing target of 2030. It has explicitly framed lunar exploration as a strategic priority — not for scientific discovery, but for territorial positioning, access to resources, and the soft power that comes from planting a flag where others haven't reached. The United States response — after years of budget battles, technical delays, and contractor struggles — is launching on Wednesday. The race isn't metaphorical. It's operational.
Now layer in the current environment. The United States is managing an active war in the Middle East, a fiscal standoff that has partially shuttered the Department of Homeland Security, and a diplomatic posture that is straining relationships with traditional allies. Against that backdrop, NASA is sending four people in a capsule into orbit around the Moon. That choice — to proceed, to spend the money, to absorb the risk — is itself a signal. It says American ambition is not exhausted, even when American politics is exhausting.
If you want to go deeper with this analysis, read the book I distributed at last month's Brigadoon gathering in Utah, Tim Marshall's The Future of Geography: How the Competition in Space Will Change Our World. Marshall's thesis is straightforward: whoever controls near-Earth space will shape power dynamics on Earth — full stop. Not metaphorically. Structurally. Satellites underpin financial systems, military command, navigation, and communications. The Moon's south pole sits atop water ice that can be converted to rocket fuel — whoever establishes extractive infrastructure there controls a logistics node for everything that comes after. Marshall documents how China, Russia, and the United States are each approaching space not as a scientific commons but as a domain of sovereignty, commerce, and eventual conflict.
Three things Artemis II means for your business.
First, the defense and aerospace supply chain is at an inflection point. Artemis II isn't just NASA. Boeing built the core stage. Lockheed Martin built Orion. SpaceX and Blue Origin are building the lunar landers for subsequent missions. A successful Artemis II would validate the entire tech stack and unlock the accelerated mission schedule NASA announced in February, with a landing planned for 2028 and at least one lunar surface mission per year thereafter. The following procurement pipeline is significant. If you're in aerospace, advanced manufacturing, or materials, the contracting activity that flows from a successful Artemis II is worth mapping now.
Second, the competition for lunar resources is moving from academic abstraction to strategic planning. The Moon contains water ice at its south pole, which could be converted into rocket fuel for a mission to Mars. It contains rare earth elements. It contains helium-3, a potential fusion fuel. The Artemis program's southern polar focus isn't accidental. What gets established in the next five years will be the Moon ballgame. From those with infrastructure to those with legal standing under nascent space resource frameworks. These landings on the Moon will shape competitive dynamics across industries, from energy to advanced materials, that most executives haven't yet begun to model.
Third, this is a moment of American capability demonstration in a world that is actively questioning American reliability. In the same week that NATO allies are hedging on US security guarantees and Gulf states are absorbing retaliatory strikes from Iran, NASA is launching a crewed lunar mission. The soft power value of that signals that the long-term American institutional capacity is a go. For companies navigating international relationships, government partnerships, and global brand positioning, the Artemis II geopolitical backdrop matters.
Watch Wednesday's launch. Then think about what it means beyond the countdown clock.
The world is watching to see whether American ambition translates into American execution. Four people in a capsule above the Moon will be part of that answer.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
All sides in the Gulf war are at risk of overplaying their hands: The costs of dragging out the conflict could be very high indeed. Economist
WSJ: Israel Hits New Targets as Mideast Retaliation Spreads
Israel targets Iran’s leaders with lethal expertise using new AI platform: Israel has hunted and killed Iranian leaders ruthlessly, using an intelligence apparatus built up over decades and enhanced in recent years. WP
The Times: Make a deal or we’ll obliterate Kharg Island, Trump tells Iran
FT: Trump hails ‘progress’ on Iran deal but threatens huge infrastructure attack
Trump weighs military move to extract Iran’s uranium: WSJ reports such a mission would be complex and risky, and would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.
Trump’s Iran folly risks becoming irreversible: Threat to send in US ground forces would only compound mistakes that have handed advantage to Russia and China. William Hague
Iran could emerge from the war stronger and more dangerous: The Islamic republic aims to set up a toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz. It may succeed. Gideon Rachman
Trump’s propaganda machine is flailing on Iran Ross Barkan
Donald Trump and the art of bad diplomacy: One of the advisers the president ignores is his younger self. Economist
Trump could ask Gulf states to contribute to cost of war, says White House: FT reports Washington’s regional allies are bearing brunt of retaliatory attacks by Iran.
After a foiled bombing outside Bank of America in Paris, five arrests and questions over Iran's role: Le Monde reports five people have been taken into police custody since two people were arrested on Saturday morning carrying an improvised explosive device near the bank's French headquarters.
America downs cheap drones with million-dollar missiles. A fix is in the works. Defense companies are racing to develop cheaper missiles, still the most effective way to down drones. WSJ
+ A ballistic missile fired from Iran entered Turkey’s airspace and was shot down by NATO defences, Turkey said.
Why the Strait of Hormuz has been a global commerce chokepoint for centuries: Blocking the Persian Gulf is the oldest trick in the book. Its power hasn’t waned at all. Iran knows this – why didn’t Trump? G+M
G7 ministers call for stabilizing energy markets amid Middle East war: Le Monde reports ministers of the group of industrial powers said they are prepared to take 'all necessary measures' to stabilize the global energy market, which is facing disruptions with Middle Eastern oil shipments.
Bloomberg: US oil closes above $100 for first time since 2022 on Iran war
Energy crisis reaches Cairo as Egyptians ration power and brace for a potential food crisis: G+M reports Egypt seemed entirely insulated from the US-Israeli war on Iran, but rising energy prices indicate otherwise.
Fears of oil at $150 a barrel if Strait of Hormuz stays shut: The Times reports brent crude up 56% in March with concerns that it could rise further still, threatening higher inflation and global recession.
How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war: China is helping the Revolutionary Guards profit from Iranian crude. Economist
Aluminium price at four-year high after smelters are hit by Iran: The Times reports the benchmark aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange soars by 6% on concerns over shortages after strikes in Bahrain and the UAE.
Qatar-backed US LNG plant starts production as Iran war hits global supply: FT reports Golden Pass plant owned by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil may help replace shortages hit by Hormuz crisis.
85%: The share, by volume, of global trade that moves by sea.
Asia turns to coal as Iran war chokes off gas supplies: Countries shrug off environmental concerns to fire up use of polluting fuel as Gulf supplies dwindle. FT
After Iran, gold is looking less glittery: Is the yellow metal the new crypto?. Economist
NYT: NYU closes its Abu Dhabi campus as Iran vows retaliation for strikes
Need to be extracted from the Middle East? Call your wealth manager: FT reports the rich are increasingly relying on financial advisers to get them out of harm’s way during the Iran war.
For Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a windfall and a burden: The monarchy, which draws its influence from its geographic position on the edge of the maritime corridor, has been unsettled by Iran's strategy of monetizing the passage. With its hands tied by a longstanding tradition of mediation and neutrality, Muscat has struggled to assert itself. Le Monde
Iran’s fractured leadership is struggling to coordinate, officials say: NYT reports that as leaders are killed and replaced, Iranian negotiators may not know what their government is willing to concede in any negotiations.
Lebanon expelled Iran’s ambassador. He refused to leave. WSJ reports the diplomat’s defiance highlights the weakness of the Lebanese government as war returns to the country.
Iranian ambassador causes stand-off by refusing to leave Lebanon: The Times reports Tehran insists Mohammad Reza Shibani ‘will continue his work’ in Beirut as the Iran-backed Hezbollah maintains a strong influence in the country.
Binyamin Netanyahu is down—but not out: Ahead of an election due in October, a divided opposition and the war could hand him a lifeline. Economist
Israel passes law to hang Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks: NYT reports experts say the law was written in such a way as to ensure that it was unlikely to ever apply to Jewish extremists who commit similar crimes.
Japan is placing a multibillion-dollar bet on the US housing market: WSJ reports some construction is slowing, but Japanese investors and builders are moving in anyway and soon will own 6% of the business in America.
For China’s officials, the goal was once growth. Now it’s loyalty: An obsession with GDP is replaced by an obsession with Xi Jinping. Economist
ST: Hydrogen energy is a tough sell for now. China doubles down anyway
A blueprint for Chinese global leadership: With the US destroying its own credibility, the opportunity is Beijing’s for the taking. Adam Tooze
EU seeks new strategy amid Sahel 'influence' rivalries: DW reports following the 2022-2023 coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the junta regimes turned to Russia, China, and even the US. Now, the EU wants to invest more in West Africa's security and growth to forge closer ties.
NATO ready to defend every inch of Arctic from Putin: With Trump casting doubt on American support, the alliance must learn from Ukraine to prepare for the possibility of a Russian invasion, Norway’s army chief warns. The Times
Finnish police say stray Ukrainian drone carried warhead: DW reports Finnish authorities are investigating two drones that crashed in southern Finland. Kyiv apologized for the incident, with Ukraine's Zelenskyy saying he and Finland's Stubb are on the same page.
Right-wingers want ICE-style mass deportations in Britain: Their plans are dangerously unrealistic. Economist
Ireland gives Trump a lesson on Europe: During the traditional Saint Patrick's Day visit to the White House by the Irish prime minister, Micheál Martin defended his British counterpart and praised the virtues of Europe in the face of criticism from the US president. Cécile Ducourtieux
The Venezuela Donald Trump “runs” is a land of surreal contrasts: Animal spirits are stirring. The opposition has hope. The regime’s softening of repression is uneven. Economist
Blackouts and health fears grip Cuba: Residents plagued by power cuts, heaps of rubbish and soaring prices as Donald Trump squeezes communist regime. FT
Air Canada CEO exit comes after backlash following fatal jet crash: WSJ reports Quebec lawmakers demanded that Michael Rousseau step down after he spoke about the LaGuardia runway accident in English, not French.
Leblanc says he’s confident Mexico will not quit USMCA for a separate deal with the US: G+M reports trade minister brushed aside reports that Ottawa is lagging Mexico City in negotiations over renewing trade pact.
US bets billions of dollars on unproven groups in rare earths deals: Companies with financial ties to figures within Trump administration win big funding deals in push for crucial metals. FT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
CNN: GOP leaders plan to keep Congress out of session even as pressure to end DHS shutdown grows
ABC News: Trump urging Congress to come back from recess to fund DHS as shutdown drags on, White House says
Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack: Morgan Stanley wealth manager approached BlackRock about multimillion-dollar investment for US defence secretary. FT
WP: Employees could use 401(k)s to invest in crypto, private equity under Trump plan
‘I think that MAGA is dying’: Inside the youth movement at CPAC: At a sparsely attended Conservative Political Action Conference, young Republicans were eager to start the post-Trump era. NYT
Rep. Eric Swalwell sends cease-and-desist letter to FBI director: WP reports attorneys for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) demanded Monday in a letter to FBI Director Kash Patel that the bureau refrain from releasing decade-old investigative files involving the congressman’s purported ties to a suspected Chinese intelligence operative.
Mark Sanford, years after scandal, aims for a comeback to Congress: NYT reports the former South Carolina governor and congressman filed papers to run for his old seat, six years after running for president and nearly two decades after a high-profile affair.
How a Democratic battle in Maine is challenging the idea of political risk: Gov. Janet Mills argues that her rival for Senate, Graham Platner, could be doomed by his history of offensive online remarks. But at a time of anti-establishment anger, Mr. Platner says he is the safer choice. NYT
Washington state adopts new tax on incomes over $1 million: WSJ reports supporters say it is needed to expand assistance to working families; opponents worry it could drive out wealthy residents.
Bloomberg: Group plans $100 million midterm effort to back Trump AI agenda
+ A former top aide to President Donald Trump is initiating a $100 million campaign to promote the administration’s pro-artificial intelligence agenda during this year’s midterm elections.
+ The new group, led by former Trump White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich, will concentrate on promoting Trump’s efforts to “unleash American innovation and American prosperity right here in the USA,”
+ The Innovation Council is compiling scorecards assessing how supportive lawmakers have been of Trump’s AI agenda to determine which candidates the group will support or oppose.
States plow ahead with AI regulation, defying Trump: States ranging from California to Utah are taking steps to place guardrails on the technology even after the president ordered them to stop. NYT
What to know about California’s executive order on AI: Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, issued an order requiring safety and privacy guardrails for artificial intelligence companies contracting with the state. NYT
America’s gig economy: Self-employment, at both the high and the low end, is keeping consumption afloat — but for how long? Rana Foroohar
*** Brigadoon ***
Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner
Twelve seats. One conversation. No PowerPoints.
Brigadoon is coming to Washington, DC for an intimate salon dinner bringing together a carefully curated group of thinkers, builders, and leaders for an evening of genuine dialogue around topics shaping business and culture.
This isn't a networking event. It's something better.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Why concerts keep getting more expensive: Stars such as Harry Styles are visiting fewer cities, so fans have to drum up additional money for travel and lodging. WSJ
WP: Celine Dion announces comeback shows 4 years after diagnosis of rare condition
Assault, attempted murder, assassination: The rogue Freemasons going on trial in Paris: A coach, a race car driver, a trade unionist: Nothing seemed to connect these otherwise unremarkable individuals. Yet all were targeted by the same criminal organization. At its head were prominent members of a Masonic lodge in a Paris suburb. These 'brothers,' now enemies, are standing trial from March 30. Le Monde
*** Sport ***
TA: NBA approves Portland Trail Blazers’ sale to Tom Dundon at $4.25 billion valuation
Netflix, eager for more NFL, is looking at a four-game package: WSJ reports the streamer, which currently has Christmas games, is among those interested in the new Thanksgiving-Eve matchup.
NFL inks deal with Tiger Woods’ TMRW Sports to start flag football league: Bloomberg reports the NFL signed a deal with TMRW Sports to create professional men’s and women’s flag football leagues, trying to cash in on a sport that’s rising in popularity ahead of its Olympic debut.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 31
