Caracal Global Daily
April 29, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The Iran war is now a long game: Trump is preparing for an extended blockade. Democrats are moving toward litigation over war authorization. Gas prices hit post-conflict highs. US intelligence agencies are gaming out what a quick "victory" declaration actually accomplishes.
2. UAE exits OPEC: Effective May 1, Abu Dhabi is out. The departure exposes longstanding fault lines between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and signals that the Iran war is permanently reshaping the global energy order.
3. Google signs AI deal with Pentagon: Despite internal employee protests, Google has reached an agreement to deploy its AI in classified military environments. OpenAI and xAI have similar deals. The militarization of commercial AI is accelerating.
4. Trump crashes to 34% approval: Driven by Iran war fatigue and cost-of-living concerns, the president's approval is now in territory that signals midterm vulnerability.
5. China holds $1.2 trillion in rare earth leverage: Bloomberg Economics calculates that industries dependent on Chinese rare earths represent roughly 4% of US GDP. With a Trump-Xi summit expected next month, Beijing is sitting on a significant negotiating chip.
*** Get this on your reading list ***
A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains by Max Bennett
This book helped me immensely with my understanding of human and artificial intelligence.
Three data points:
1) The simulation gap explains why AI can beat a chess grandmaster, but it can't load a dishwasher: A human brain has a neocortex, which allows it to simulate possible outcomes of actions before taking them. Think planning, recalling past events, and more efficient learning by imagination. Bennett argues that current AI systems lack this.
2) Reinforcement learning is 500 million years old; AI just rediscovered it: Human life acquired the capability to learn to repeat behaviors that lead to good or bad outcomes. AI reinforcement learning is just beginning, but the brain does it with far less data and energy; a human is far more energy-efficient.
3) AI can't read the room: Humans have developed the ability to track what other individuals know, want, and intend. Humans understand context and have high EQ. Current AI lacks this ability.
Bennett concludes that AI systems' evolution won't be constrained by biology the way ours was, so that the next breakthrough could compress millions of years of evolutionary time into years of engineering.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade of Iran: The president prefers decisive victories, but none of the available options provides him with a swift exit from the conflict. WSJ
Get used to the long Iran war: Tehran has a strong incentive to keep the conflict going. Edward Luce
+ Iran Army Spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia says Iran remains on a war footing despite a ceasefire, warning of “crushing response” to any new aggression.
US intelligence agencies consider what Iran would do if Trump declares victory: Quick de-escalation could ease political pressure, but Trump could still ramp up military operations in war. CBC
Iran tests new plan to resolve war with the US: Le Monde reports Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has held several consultations to promote a new three-phase plan, based on gradual de-escalation and featuring greater involvement of regional actors.
Democrats explore suing Trump if he ignores Congress on Iran war: Democrats in Congress are exploring a lawsuit against President Donald Trump if he continues the war in Iran beyond Friday’s legal deadline without obtaining congressional authorization, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell TIME, setting up a potential constitutional clash over presidential war powers as Congress prepares for another vote this week. Time
CNBC: United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC May 1, energy chief says still committed to oil price stability
UAE's OPEC exit deals major blow to cartel amid Middle East oil squeeze: WSJ reports the sudden departure threatens an organization that has been hobbled by internal disunity and the rise of American oil output.
UAE quits OPEC in major blow to oil cartel: The Times reports the Gulf state’s departure — amid industry-wide turmoil caused by the Iran war — follows tension with the group’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia.
UAE to leave OPEC amid Hormuz oil crisis, a blow to Saudi Arabia: WP reports the departure weakens the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, long criticized by Trump, as the global economy reels from the Iran war energy shock.
The UAE’s departure from OPEC may not break the cartel: But it highlights longstanding tensions that the Gulf war has exacerbated. Economist
Why the UAE broke up with OPEC: US fracking and the Iran war are causing the oil cartel to fracture. WSJ-Editorial
Amid Iran war and tensions with neighbors, UAE goes its own way: NYT reports the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC has rocked the region, underscoring how the country, at odds with Saudi Arabia, is increasingly charting its own course.
ST: Iranian oil tankers are clustering just shy of US blockade line
Iran is flooded with so much unsold oil that it’s stashing it in derelict tanks: WSJ reports Tehran is trying to buy time as the war turns into a race to see whether its oil fields or global consumers can take more pain.
BBC: BP profits more than double as Iran war sends oil prices higher
US gas prices hit highest level since beginning of war in Iran: NYT reports the jump on Tuesday of 1.6 percent was the highest percentage increase in more than a month.
Bloomberg: India airlines warn of flight suspensions as war drives up fuel cost
ST: Iran war has ‘disproportionate impact’ on Asia-Pacific: Australia Foreign Minister
Canada grapples with oil price surge from war in Iran: Toronto Star reports the war in Iran and the resulting spike in the price of oil has had an uneven impact at best on Canada’s economy, the federal government says.
Eat the cost or pass it on: Grocers face tough choices as suppliers add fuel surcharges: Toronto Star reports fuel use is woven into nearly every step of the food supply system, from the harvesting of crops to transportation.
Nickel prices stay high as Iran war adds to Indonesia output cut: S&P: Nikkei reports a sulfur shortage and Jakarta's pricing policy send battery feedstock value soaring.
Stay put or travel abroad? Americans are rethinking their summer travel plans. Faced with geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and rising airfares, many travelers are changing destinations or canceling their trips entirely. NYT
First fully loaded LNG tanker since war began appears to have crossed the Strait: NYT reports a liquefied natural gas transit has been effectively halted. A ship managed by Abu Dhabi’s state oil company managed to cross, said Kpler, a maritime data firm.
China poised to restart exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline: FT reports Beijing signals relaxation of export ban imposed at start of Iran conflict.
Japanese supertanker appears to transit Strait of Hormuz: Nikkei reports the move by Idemitsu Kosan vessel resulted from talks with Tokyo, with no fees paid, senior Japan official says.
US Iran war’s next casualty - global food: Farmers, especially in poorer countries, struggle to keep up production amid high fuel, fertilizer prices. NYT
King Charles urges Trump not to abandon special relationship with UK: WSJ reports the British monarch celebrates ‘one of the greatest alliances in history’ in address to Congress.
King Charles urges checks on executive power as Trump hosts royal visit: WP reports in a speech to Congress, the monarch avoided naming the president but highlighted democratic norms, Ukraine and Western unity.
The Times: King Charles hails ‘indispensable’ bond with US in speech to Congress
NYT: King Charles stresses cooperation in speech to Congress
King Charles defends transatlantic relationship in speech to Congress: FT reports UK monarch’s visit to Washington comes at a fraught moment between the nations amid US-Israeli war against Iran.
Le Monde: King Charles III says UK-US alliance cannot rest on past achievements, notes 'times of great uncertainty'
+ MR: King Charles absolutely charmed Congress today! From his quips about George III to his “hostage” tradition at Westminster, he was a fantastic representative of the UK. Great to see such warmth and wit in the chamber.
America’s special relationship is ‘probably Israel’, says UK ambassador to US: FT reports in leaked remarks, Christian Turner also says it is ‘extraordinary’ that Epstein scandal has not affected sex offender’s US associates.
UK ambassador’s remarks risk red faces back in London: Politico reports expect dismay over reports that Britain’s ambassador to Washington said America’s only “special relationship” is “probably Israel,” not the US.
British MPs voted against opening an inquiry into whether Sir Keir Starmer misled parliament over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to America.
The prickly side of Zack Polanski, Green Party leader: His activity on social media shows how the eco-populist bristles at criticism. Economist
How to protect France from an Orban-style takeover: What if the National Rally wins, in one of Europe’s most centralised states? Economist
Anger about internet restrictions breathes some life into Russian politics: From beauty influencers to the token political opposition, Russians are openly questioning President Vladimir V. Putin’s moves to hamstring access. NYT
Ukraine hits Russia’s oil machine, but struggles to dent its economy: WSJ reports the drone strikes on refineries and ports have caused some disruption but had little impact on Moscow’s oil revenues.
Ukraine just hit a major Russian refinery for the 3rd time in the past 2 weeks: CBC reports Ukraine said some of its allies asked it not to attack Russian refineries because of global energy crunch.
Europe needs Ukraine to fight Russia: It is risky to let Ukraine into the EU. It’s more dangerous to keep it out. Economist
Zelenskyy threatens Israelis with sanctions over stolen grain: Politico reports the president’s announcement underscores escalating tensions between the 2 nations, whose ties have been strained by Israel’s ongoing relationship with Russia.
US ambassador to Ukraine to leave over differences with Donald Trump: FT reports Julie Davis frustrated with president’s lack of support for Kyiv, say people familiar with the matter.
Defence became a dirty word. Now NATO is paying the price: The alliance faces ‘unacceptable’ wait times for key weaponry after decades of neglecting the sector, its former top military officer has warned. The Times
Bloomberg: China, US tensions build over Iran and AI before Trump meets Xi
+ Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are headed toward a summit next month with a shared desire to stabilize ties, but tensions are rising over Iranian oil and AI.
+ The Trump administration has ramped up scrutiny of Beijing’s ties with Tehran, sanctioning one of China’s largest private refiners, and warned Chinese banks could face secondary sanctions.
+ The US and China are using the negotiating window to armor their supply chains, lock down critical intellectual property, and build leverage, with issues like Taiwan and tech competition likely to be on the agenda at the summit.
Xi has $1.2 trillion rare earths leverage ahead of Trump visit: Bloomberg Economics finds that around 4% of US GDP — totaling some $1.2 trillion — is derived from industries that use rare earths. While some US industries may be able to work around any supply disruption, most don’t have good substitutes and some would need to shut down in the event of any cut-off. “In some cases, rare earth inputs are ‘golden screws’: In the event of a disruption, manufacturers would be hard-pressed to substitute away or would need many months, if not years, to do so,” BE’s Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy wrote in the note.
Can China really block Meta’s Manus AI acquisition? Bloomberg
What China holds in store for Apple's new CEO: John Ternus set to take reins as India shift struggles, iPhone pressure mounts. Nikkei
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is outgrowing US missile defenses: North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is nearing a crucial tipping point: being big enough to possibly overwhelm the ground-based missile defenses the US spent billions developing over the last 30 years. Bloomberg
Japan eyes world-first transmission of space-based solar power to Earth: Experiment will use microwaves to send electricity from orbit. Nikkei
ST: Singapore developing drones to be deployed across island for public safety
40%: The share of South Koreans aged 65 and over who remain in work.
Argentina’s Navy conducts military exercises with US aircraft carrier: BAT reports Argentina’s Navy has begun a series of military maneuvers in the South Atlantic alongside forces from the United States.
Argentina hunts for LNG imports for Winter in war-wrecked market: BAT reports Argentina is looking to purchase liquefied natural gas cargoes for its upcoming winter heating season.
El Salvador's president entrusts monitoring of chronic patients to Google's AI: Le Monde reports an app screens users for chronic illnesses and directs those at risk to private laboratory tests, specialist consultations, and AI-assisted diagnoses. The system raises concerns about its cost and about data security.
The plywood smuggling ring that ensnared a building-products giant: WSJ reports Boise Cascade pleaded guilty to a federal charge of selling Chinese plywood that was sneaked into Florida to avoid duties.
How Vietnam's garment factories benefited from Trump's trade policy: One year after the Trump administration introduced new tariffs, Vietnamese manufacturers of clothing and sports shoes are exporting more than ever to the US and Europe. But young people are turning away from these exhausting jobs. Le Monde
Bloomberg: Google signs deal to allow AI in classified military work
+ Google has reached an agreement with the US Defense Department to allow its artificial intelligence systems to be used for classified military work.
+ The deal includes providing the Pentagon with API access to Google's commercial models, but does not entail custom work or model development.
+ The agreement was made despite protests from Google researchers, who sent a letter to CEO Sundar Pichai urging him to refuse to make the company's AI systems available for classified workloads for US defense missions.
Google signs AI deal with the Pentagon: The Pentagon has also signed deals for using AI on classified networks with OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI, amid a dispute with Anthropic. NYT
Why Anthropic’s Mythos is sparking global alarm Bloomberg
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Americans feel worse off financially than at any point in 25 years, Gallup finds: Axios reports the share of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse is higher now than at any point in the past 25 years, per new Gallup data out Tuesday morning. 55% of respondents to a poll conducted April 1-15 said their financial situation is getting worse; that's up from 53% last year and 47% in 2024.
Where Americans are drawing the line on price increases: Shoppers are buying less where prices are rising fastest, showing that inflation isn’t being driven by demand but by companies passing on costs. WSJ
Reuters: Trump approval sinks to new low as war with Iran drives cost-of-living concerns
Trump’s approval sinks to 34%: Trump’s approval rating sank to the lowest level of his current term — 34% — as Americans increasingly soured on his handling of the cost of living and an unpopular war with Iran, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
How the Trump assassination attempt sparked a ballroom-sized conspiracy theory: The Telegraph reports some claim the attempt on the US president’s life was a ploy to secure his $400m White House redecoration project.
How an influencer’s tweet about the DC gunman started a firestorm: As online creators have entered Washington’s spheres of influence, they’ve become easy targets when misinformation spreads. WSJ
CNN: Former FBI Director James Comey indicted over alleged ‘threat’ against Trump
Trump administration secures new indictment against Comey: NYT reports the new case stems from a social media post showing seashells on a North Carolina beach that the Trump administration characterized as a threat against the president.
CNBC: Ex-FBI Director James Comey charged with threatening Trump’s life in ‘8647’ post
Calling Trump a tyrant is not a call to violence: Conservatives want to police how we talk about Trump—while excusing how the president talks about everyone else. Jonathan Chait
Trump State Department unveils bold new design for America250 passports: Fox News reports the limited-edition passports will prominently feature an image of President Donald Trump surrounded by the Declaration of Independence.
The Hill: Pentagon asks Congress to codify ‘Department of War’ with $52 million price tag
FCC orders a review of ABC’s broadcast licenses: NYT reports the agency said the review was related to the network’s diversity and inclusion policies. But it came amid a fight between the president and the network’s late night host, Jimmy Kimmel.
FCC’s Brendan Carr launches early review of Disney’s ABC TV licenses: WSJ reports President Trump called for ABC host Jimmy Kimmel to be fired for a joke he made last week about Melania Trump.
New DHS chief’s call for quieter immigration enforcement alarms MAGA base: WP reports groups like the Mass Deportation Coalition see Markwayne Mullin’s push to restore confidence in DHS after fatal shootings as a potential betrayal of the president’s promise.
Trump push to end key humanitarian protection reaches Supreme Court: NYT reports the effort to dismantle Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, is part of a shift away from providing humanitarian assistance to people from troubled countries.
Trump tests the limits of his most faithful supporters: The president’s rhetoric on religion, along with hard-line immigration policies and the US war in Iran, has splintered a coalition of Christian voters who returned him to the White House. NYT
The GOP thinks its base is enough to win the midterms. It’s not. Ed Kilgore
Democrats pitch ‘new affordability,’ looking to widen midterm appeal: NYT reports Progressives who expect their party to take control of Congress are putting forth a slate of bills aimed at helping lower costs for Americans, financed by tax increases on the wealthy.
Talarico leads both Cornyn, Paxton in new poll of Texas’ US Senate race: Texas Tribune reports that the Austin Democrat, who won his party’s nomination in March, led Cornyn and Paxton by margins of 3 and 5 percentage points, respectively. Both results were within the survey’s margin of error.
Trump and Kentucky Republicans are uniting against Massie. He could still win. Politico reports frustrated local officials see their best chance to oust Rep. Thomas Massie in over a decade with President Donald Trump's intervention. But even they acknowledge the incumbent's strength.
Rep. Dan Webster (R-FL) will not seek re-election to Congress, Florida Politics reports.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
SpaceX aims at a $7.5 trillion valuation, a million-person Mars colony, and space data centers.
BYD reported annual net profits of $590m—a fall of more than 50% from the previous year.
Spotify adds subscribers, but outlook disappoints: WSJ reports shares tumble for streaming firm that recently unveiled expansion into fitness content with Peloton partnership.
Bloomberg: Samsung dynasty’s wealth doubles to $45 billion in just one year
Americans are down on AI. These two caricatures are to blame. Public skepticism could become a strategic liability. WP
OpenAI trial starts with two very different tales of a company’s early years: In the trial’s first day of testimony, Elon Musk said greed led co-founder Sam Altman to pull the AI lab away from its nonprofit roots. OpenAI says that’s nonsense. NYT
Musk testifies he’s suing OpenAI to stop Altman’s ‘looting’: Bloomberg reports: “It is not okay to steal a charity, that’s my view,” Musk told jurors at the outset of a trial in federal court in Oakland, California.
Elon Musk testifies of AI risk at trial, says OpenAI tried to ‘steal’ a charity: WSJ reports opening statements in Musk’s lawsuit offered differing views of his early financial support of OpenAI and its conversion to a for-profit company.
Musk testifies in trial over AI’s future: ‘It’s not okay to steal a charity’: WP reports Elon Musk painted himself as an innovator trying to help humanity flourish when he took the stand in the trial over his lawsuit against ChatGPT-maker OpenAI.
Sam Altman stole a charity, Elon Musk says as OpenAI trial begins: The Times reports the Tesla founder is suing the ChatGPT maker for betraying him over transforming the organisation into a for-profit company.
Why DeepSeek’s new model has been met with a shrug: The AI lab faces stiffening competition and a meddling state. Economist
AI boom to triple US power equipment market to $65 billion: Bloomberg reports US spending on power-plant equipment is expected to triple through 2030, primarily driven by the growth of data centers that may account for as much as 40% of total investment, according to a report Tuesday from Wood Mackenzie Ltd. The US market for electrical equipment is projected to reach $65 billion by 2030, up from $20 billion in 2025, with data-center capacity expected to increase more than 350% to 110 gigawatts.
AI worries have returned to Wall Street. Now come earnings. A slide in artificial-intelligence stocks comes ahead of earnings from key tech giants. WSJ
My adventures with ‘the AI that actually does things’: OpenClaw agents have been touted as the most important software product ever. I have questions. John Herrman
Goldman Sachs stops bankers using Anthropic’s Claude in Hong Kong: FT reports employees were unable to access company’s AI models as of a few weeks ago.
Bloomberg: Most prediction market traders are losing money while bots rack up gains
+ Over 100,000 accounts on Polymarket lost at least $1,000, almost twice the number that made at least that much, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.
+ A majority of the profits on Polymarket were made by a small group of automated bots, with everyone else losing $131 million in aggregate.
+ Most traders on Polymarket, around 69%, lost money, while the top 1% captured three-quarters of the profits, according to a paper co-authored by Charles Martineau.
I built an AI trading platform in six days. That’s terrifying Darri Eythorsson
FanDuel is playing catch-up on prediction markets: Bloomberg reports the company remains a leader in online sports betting, yet it has mostly missed the prediction markets boom led by Kalshi and Polymarket. It’s trying to change that.
Ted Lasso returns on August 5: The show accounted for ~25% of all Apple TV viewing in calendar 2023. That's both an indication of how heavily viewed Ted Lasso was and how little viewed almost everything else on Apple TV is.
Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman end deal talks: WSJ reports the French spirits company and the Jack Daniel’s maker announced in March that they were discussing a potential combination.
Coca-Cola is trouncing Pepsi. Can the underdog turn things around? The maker of the world’s second-favourite fizzy drink is becoming more like its rival. Economist
*** Caracal Global ***
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services for Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio companies — Intelligence + Strategy + Communications, without the overhead of a full-time hire.
Our clients are senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications.
If the Iran escalation, the Hormuz crisis, or the China stability narrative is now on your board's agenda and you don't have a geopolitical officer in the room, that's the conversation we should be having.
Four tiers of service: Advisory | Representative | Senator | Presidential.
More @ caracal.global.
*** Culture ***
Will a Los Angeles megamansion become America’s first $400 million home? A 70,000-square-foot spread in Bel-Air is poised to change the ultraluxury market as we know it. WSJ
After decades of resistance, a casino finally opens in New York City: The NYT reports that as Aqueduct Racetrack winds down, Resorts World opens the first full-scale commercial casino in Queens, with live table games, dealers, and cards.
Variety: ‘White Lotus’ season 4 casts Laura Dern
San Francisco, Oakland finally land after 2-year legal battle over airport name: CBC reports a settlement lets Oakland airport use San Francisco in its name — but with certain conditions. The settlement announced Tuesday allows Oakland's airport to be called "Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport," but it bars the city from highlighting "San Francisco" or "San Francisco Bay" in fonts, highlights, different colors, or any other way.
*** Sport ***
ESPN: Sources: NCAA basketball tournaments set to move to 76 teams
+ MR: As of the 2025-2026 season, there are approximately 365 schools competing in NCAA Division I men's basketball... That's like 21% of all teams making the playoffs.
The Baltimore Ravens are signing undrafted free agent QB Diego Pavia to a 3-year deal.
F1 thought the Mercedes dynasty was over. Toto Wolff was plotting to bring it back. Five years since it last won a constructors’ title, the team has won the first three Grands Prix of the season. WSJ
Rafael Jódar’s tennis rise and the teenage kicks of a new template for Spain in the sport Athletic
PSG edge Bayern 5-4 in Champions League semi-final epic: Le Monde reports this is the highest-scoring match ever at this stage of the competition. Luis Enrique's Paris Saint-Germain will be returning to Munich – scene of the team's 5-0 win over Inter in last year's final – with the advantage, but Bayern will be confident they can overturn the narrow deficit at home.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | April 29
