Caracal Global Daily
May 1, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The global pricing event: Oil hit a four-year high overnight, gas reached $7.89 in South San Francisco, the Bank of England modeled a 6.2% peak rate scenario, Air France-KLM and Air Canada both pulled guidance, and Delta and United are quietly consolidating dominance as low-cost carriers retrench. The war in Iran is no longer a foreign policy story. It is a margin, capex, and consumer confidence story that lands on every quarterly earnings call between now and Labor Day.
2. The UAE drops OPEC and doubles down on the Israel-US axis: This is the most consequential Gulf realignment since the 1973 embargo. Abu Dhabi is now a security partner of Israel (laser systems already deployed), a financial counterweight to Saudi Arabia, and the operational hub for any post-conflict Iran reconstruction. Capital flows, sovereign wealth deployment, and defense procurement across MENA will reorient around this axis for the next decade.
3. Trump-Merz rupture: Trump's threat to pull troops from Germany after Friedrich Merz called Washington "humiliated" by Tehran shocked the Pentagon. The German chancellor's comments and Trump's response confirm what Caracal Global has flagged for months: the transatlantic alliance is now transactional, public, and personality-driven. European industrial policy, defense procurement, and energy strategy are being rewritten in real time.
4. The Supreme Court's voting rights ruling leads to permanent redistricting warfare: House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) is calling on Southern states to redraw maps before November. Louisiana has suspended its House primary. Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will sign Florida's redistricting bill. House Minority Leader Jeffries (D-NY) is responding in kind. The structural consequence: fewer competitive districts, more polarized politics, and a higher premium on direct corporate engagement with state-level officials who increasingly determine federal policy.
5. Big Tech capex on AI will reach $1 trillion by 2027: The supply crunch in AI infrastructure is now the defining bottleneck of the technology cycle. Intel's stock more than doubled in April. Apple posted $111 billion in revenue. The capital-intensity story is reshaping who can compete, who gets acquired, and which boards need to reassess their technology investment thesis this quarter.
*** Ross Rant ***
The world you planned for this year doesn't exist
Two months ago, global companies assumed three things: oil between $70 and $90, a stable transatlantic alliance, and a manageable cold war with China conducted primarily through tariffs.
This morning, all three assumptions are gone.
Oil is closing at levels not seen since the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. The US is in an active blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian mines and drones halting commercial shipping. The Bank of England is publicly modeling a peak rate of 6.2%. Air France-KLM raised ticket prices. Air Canada pulled its 2026 outlook. Three American farmers told the Wall Street Journal they are switching corn acres to soybeans because diesel costs have rewritten the math on this growing season. None of this was in any board deck written before March.
Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said Washington had been humiliated by Tehran. Trump responded by floating troop withdrawal from Germany, a move the Pentagon said it was not expecting. The transatlantic alliance is now operating on the assumption that a personal spat can move 35,000 American service members. King Charles flew to Washington and used a state visit to deliver, in the British press's reading, a master class in understated rebuke. He also extracted the elimination of Scotch whisky tariffs on the same trip. That is the new statecraft: monarch-as-trade-negotiator.
The UAE has left OPEC. Read that sentence twice. The architecture of the global oil cartel that has shaped energy markets since 1960 just lost one of its most important members, and Abu Dhabi is now openly aligning with Israel against Iran while Saudi Arabia watches. The Wall Street Journal called it a new Middle East order. That is not hyperbole. It is the most accurate description.
In Washington, Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) flipped her vote on the Iran war. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is insisting the US is not at war as the 60-day War Powers clock runs out. DefSec Pete Hegseth is telling the Senate that the ceasefire has paused the deadline. Press conferences and tweets are rewriting the legal framework governing American military deployments since 1973. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court's voting rights ruling has triggered a redistricting arms race. Louisiana has already suspended a primary. Florida is next. The political map your government affairs team modeled in January is no longer up to date.
And beneath it all, AI capex is on track to reach $1 trillion by 2027. The hyperscalers are spending faster than their cash flow can sustain. Intel's share price doubled in April. Apple printed $111 billion in Q1. Mark Zuckerberg blamed the war in Iran for Meta's slower sales and for AI costs that led to layoffs. The AI supply crunch is now a board-level resource allocation problem, not a technology problem.
Here is what this means for your company.
The post-Cold War assumption that economic interdependence prevents conflict has been reversed. Conflict - military and trade - is now reshaping economic interdependence in real time, and your board has been operating on a model that no longer applies. You cannot navigate this environment with a quarterly review cadence and an annual offsite. You need continuous geopolitical intelligence, weekly scenario planning, and a communications posture that anticipates volatility rather than reacts to it.
That is what a Chief Geopolitical Officer does. Caracal Global offers this capability on a fractional basis to Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolios that need the function but aren't ready to hire it full-time. If the items above are on your board's agenda and there isn't a geopolitical officer in the room, that is the conversation we should have this week.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Trump, Iran are locked in high-stakes standoff as oil prices hit 4-year high: WP reports as the US blockade and Iranian mines and drones halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, US gas prices also reached a level not seen since just after Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
In the war between the US and Iran, both sides are convinced they control the clock: Tehran believes Trump needs a deal; Washington thinks the Islamic Republic cannot survive without one. Alain Frachon
Trump to consider plan for ground troops to seize Strait: The Times reports military options to break deadlock could also include more airstrikes — but Ayatollah says US has no place in the Gulf except ‘at the bottom of its waters.’
Iran threatens 'long and painful strikes' on US targets if Trump resumes bombing: CBC reports US President Donald Trump was reportedly to be briefed Thursday on plans for new military strikes.
+ The UAE has called on its citizens to depart Iran, Iraq and Lebanon immediately.
US asks to move Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles towards Iran: Telegraph reports Donald Trump under increasing pressure to either break impasse in negotiations or deliver decisive blow to end costly two-month conflict.
Does Trump have to ‘finish the job’ in Iran? Charles Lipson
The US military was losing its edge. After Iran, everyone knows it. NYT-Editorial
Top defense official confirms Russian involvement in Iran war: AP reports the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, told senators Russian President Vladimir Putin has aided Iran’s war effort. He declined to go into details, citing the public nature of the hearing, but said, ”There’s definitely some action there.”
The UAE doubles down on Israel and America: The consequences of the Emirates’ departure from OPEC. Economist
EN: US seeks 'maritime freedom' coalition to restart Strait of Hormuz shipping
As Hormuz traffic stalls, US pitches new coalition to get ships moving again: WSJ reports a State Department cable shows the Trump administration wants other nations to form an alliance to help jump-start ship traffic.
Reuters: Lithuania should join US coalition in Strait of Hormuz, president says
Three American farmers on how the Iran war is changing their plans: To cut costs, farmers are slated to plant more soybeans and fewer corn acres this growing season. WSJ
Air France owner increases prices as fuel costs surge by $2.4bn: FT reports airline pares growth plans, cuts spending, and increases ticket prices in response to Iran war.
Bloomberg: Air Canada pulls 2026 outlook on rising jet fuel costs
Jet fuel crisis lays bare faultlines in US airline industry: FT reports Delta and United cement dominance as low-cost carriers rue post-pandemic splurge on aircraft.
Bloomberg: Trump says Iran blockade working after oil hits wartime high
+ Gas reaches $7.89 for regular in South San Francisco.
Oil markets are still in La La land: Prices have risen sharply. Unfortunately, they still have further to go. Economist
The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away: As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable. Economist
+ The Bank of England reckons interest rates could peak at 6.2 percent in the worst-case Iran war scenario.
Trump poised to defy Congress on war authorization: WSJ reports Defense Secretary Hegseth tells lawmakers that the US-Iran cease-fire stopped the clock on the war authorization deadline.
Hegseth says Iran war can continue despite legal deadline: Politico reports the Pentagon chief told senators a ceasefire in the Middle East pauses a 60-day war powers clock.
GOP unity cracks with latest Iran war vote: Politico Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) was the first Republican senator to change her vote on the Iran war.
House Speaker Mike Johnson says the US is 'not at war' with Iran as White House approaches 60-day deadline: NBC News reports the 1973 War Powers Resolution says that the president has to remove military forces from conflict within 60 days if Congress doesn't authorize a war before that deadline.
The UAE’s OPEC bombshell signals a new Middle East order: After bearing the brunt of Iran’s counterattack, the financial powerhouse is strengthening security cooperation with Israel and widening a rift with Saudi Arabia. WSJ
How Trump’s Iran blockade is complicating a high-stakes trip to China: If President Trump flies to China as planned in May, the primary topic will clearly be the rippling economic effects of a war that Beijing has made clear it viewed as unnecessary. NYT
AP: UK raises national terror threat level after the stabbing of 2 Jewish men
+ The UK's threat level has increased to “severe”. This follows a rising Islamist and extreme right-wing terrorist threat, and yesterday's abhorrent antisemitic terrorist attack.
+ Keir Starmer said the government could crack down on pro-Gaza marches after being heckled about the Golders Green attack.
UK Green Party candidates arrested over anti-Semitism: Telegraph reports social media post allegedly by candidate for Clapham Town claimed synagogue attacks ‘were revenge.’
Zack Polanski raising tensions over Golders Green attack, says Met: The Times reports the commissioner has accused the Green Party leader of ‘undermining’ officers after he reshared a post condemning the way the stabbing suspect was arrested.
London antisemitic attack alarms European intelligence services: Le Monde reports after a series of antisemitic attacks against buildings and property across Europe, the stabbing of two members of the Jewish community on Wednesday, April 29, in London marks a concerning escalation for European counterterrorism officials.
Israel’s center wants Democrats back. It may not have the cards. The parties that once anchored Israel's ties to Democrats have collapsed electorally — and even a post-Netanyahu government may struggle to win back a Democratic Party that's already moved on. Politico
Israel rushed laser system to UAE to fend off Iran’s missiles: FT reports the deployment of equipment is one of the first examples of major defence co-operation between the two states.
Israel says detained Gaza flotilla activists to be taken to Greece: Le Monde reports the Global Sumud Flotilla, which aims to break through the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, claimed 211 of its activists had been 'kidnapped' by Israel. Israel said it had arrested around 175 activists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the interception a 'total success,' and described participants as 'Hamas supporters.'
EN: Trump launches fresh tirade against Merz after troop withdrawal threat
Trump tells ‘broken’ Germany to keep nose out of conflict: The Times reports the president warned he could pull US troops out of the country in retaliation for Friedrich Merz’s comments that Washington had been ‘humiliated’ by Tehran.
Trump’s call to reduce US troops in Germany shocks Pentagon: Politico reports the Defense Department "was not expecting it," a congressional aide said.
Trump’s threat to pull troops from Germany risks eroding US power projection: WSJ reports the president said the US was reviewing the potential move after the German chancellor made critical comments about the Iran war.
Russia is already waging war against us, Polish general says: NATO has been urged to consider mirroring the Kremlin’s hybrid attacks and taking on more responsibility for Europe’s defence. The Times
How Russia lost its way in the Sahara: Losses to Malian militants by Wagner Group’s successor call into question future of Moscow’s military adventurism in Africa. FT
Decoding the King: Brits hear subtle rebuke to Trump that Americans might miss: Royal watchers in Britain called the visit of King Charles III to America a master class in understated criticism. NYT
Switzerland to vote on capping its population at 10 million.
Ireland set to surpass Luxembourg and become richest country in Europe by 2030, IMF says.
Belgium reopens the nuclear door in high-stakes deal with Engie: EN reports the business venture aims to reach an agreement on the takeover of the nuclear fleet by 1 October, but it's unclear how much Belgium will pay for this nuclear renaissance. The Belgian government will partner with the French energy giant to revive nuclear power in its energy mix as soaring electricity prices, driven by ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty in the Middle East, have already pushed the country's inflation to 4% in April.
French economy chills as growth stalls and inflation rises: Le Monde reports gross domestic product stagnated in the first quarter due to a decline in household consumption, while inflation rose by more than 2% year-on-year.
What Labour’s likely meltdown means for the UK: The ruling party is being outflanked by populists on the left and right. The consequences could change British politics for good. FT
EN: EU vows to fight ‘tooth and nail’ for European industry as China threatens retaliation
How the Trump-Xi threats of trade war softened into a quieter rivalry: The forthcoming US-China leaders’ summit will be much less fraught than the last one. Alan Beattie
Beijing bans drone sales even as rest of world buys Chinese drones: ARS reports Beijing’s citywide ban restricts the sale, transport, and storage of drones.
Taiwan's economy grows 13.69% in Q1, the highest in 39 years.
Japan launches FX intervention, briefly pushing yen to 155 from 160: Nikkei reports the currency strengthens after government moves to curb yen weakness.
Bangladesh clothing makers look to trade deals to revive exports: Cooling Western consumer confidence could accelerate declines in monthly shipments. Nikkei
India’s homegrown $1 billion high-speed trading unicorn goes global: Graviton is expanding in Singapore and London as competition and regulatory hurdles build in its home market. Bloomberg
12: The number of African countries expected to be among the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2026.
Thiel is the latest rabbit Milei has pulled from a hat: Argentina’s previous two presidents failed to win re-election, undone by their inability to resolve the country’s economic problems. Despite the recent turbulence, Milei is well positioned to break that trend. BAT
Poll: Confidence in Milei’s government falls for fifth month running: BAT reports popularity index tracked monthly by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella shows a sustained fall since last December.
Milei visits US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz during Argentina-US joint naval drills: BAT reports president observes South Atlantic exercises with US forces in show of closer military co-operation.
AP: The first direct US-Venezuela commercial flight in 7 years lands in Caracas
Jair Bolsonaro’s prison time likely to be reduced as Brazilian lawmakers block Lula veto: FT reports leftist president had sought to stymie legislation changing how criminal sentences are calculated.
Mexico’s president faces perilous choice after US indicts her ally: NYT reports the Trump administration wants President Claudia Sheinbaum to arrest a Mexican governor. She is faced with few good options in response.
Mexico rules out extraditing politician on US drugs charges: FT reports Claudia Sheinbaum rejects ‘meddling’ and suggests accusations against senior officials are political.
Carney appoints former minister Jonathan Wilkinson as EU ambassador: Toronto Star reports the Liberal MP for North Vancouver—Capilano said he is looking forward to taking up his post in Brussels.
Mark Carney downplays Conservative MP’s trip to US amid trade war: ‘We’re the negotiators’: Toronto Star reports Conservative MP Jamil Jivani, who has a personal friendship with US Vice-President JD Vance, was on his second self-assigned mission to Washington.
Carney says there's only 'one negotiator' with the US after Conservative MP's latest trip to Washington: CBC reports Jamil Jivani returned to the US capital this week to carry 'the Conservative party's Team Canada message.'
White House opposes Anthropic’s plan to expand access to Mythos model: Relationship is still complicated despite efforts from both sides to de-escalate. WSJ
US to remove tariffs on Scotch whisky after King Charles-Trump meeting: WSJ reports president credits British royals for persuading him to lift the levies.
UK whiskey tariffs eased after Trump met with King Charles III: WP reports the move could boost trade between Scotch whisky and Kentucky bourbon producers.
King Charles visit secures Trump tariff reprieve for Scottish whisky: The Times reports the president made the concession to mark the end of the monarch’s trip with Camilla, saying ‘they got me to do something that nobody else was able to do.’
Trump signs order authorizing Bridger's Canada-Wyoming crude pipeline: CBC reports the proposed project will transport Canadian crude from the US-Canada border to Wyoming.
Dozens of countries discuss ending 'suicidal' fossil fuels: The first international conference dedicated to phasing out fossil fuels concluded Wednesday in Colombia, which hosted 57 countries in Santa Marta. Le Monde
Reporters Without Borders: Press freedom at lowest level in 25 years: BAT reports Argentina falls 11 places in annual ranking, now in 98th place; Press freedom at lowest level in 25 years, says media watchdog RSF; More than half of countries facing “difficult” or “very serious” situation.
US falls below Ukraine in press freedom as global autocracy takes hold: “In 25 years, the average score… has never been so low.” ARS
*** US Politics + Elections ***
US economy grows at 2% pace in first quarter as AI boom fuels investment: FT reports rush by businesses to purchase tech equipment offsets deceleration in consumer spending.
CNBC: Dow surges nearly 800 points, S&P 500 posts first close above 7,200 and best month since 2020
Trump approval down: A new AP-NORC poll finds President Trump’s approval rating on the economy dropped to 30% in April — down from 38% in March.
Jeffrey Epstein’s possible suicide note hidden from public view: NYT reports an inmate said he discovered the note after Mr. Epstein was found injured in his jail cell, weeks before his death. It’s now locked in a courthouse.
Trump withdraws MAHA champion Casey Means as Surgeon General nominee: WSJ reports president slams Republican senator for opposing Means, and names Dr. Nicole Saphier as the new nominee.
WP: Trump drops embattled surgeon general pick Casey Means, announces new nominee
Trump nominates Fox News doctor to be the next surgeon general: ARS reports Trump lashes out at Cassidy while announcing his new nomination.
How Trump’s attacks on the Fed backfired, frustrating his plans to reshape it: Jerome H. Powell, the outgoing Fed chair, said months of legal pressure had left him “no choice” but to remain as a governor, a move that denies the White House a crucial seat on the board. WP
The Comey indictment could be upended by this 2015 Supreme Court precedent: WP reports the high court a decade ago explicitly overturned the legal standard that prosecutors are now citing to charge former FBI director James B. Comey with threatening President Donald Trump.
Chief Justice Roberts played the long game on voting rights: Since his early days as a lawyer and in his first years on the bench, the chief justice has worked to limit the force of the Voting Rights Act. NYT
Mike Johnson backs Louisiana election delay, urges other states to redraw maps: Politico reports the Supreme Court invalidated the map in the speaker’s home state Wednesday.
Speaker Johnson calls for redistricting Southern states before midterms: WP reports after the Supreme Court limited the Voting Rights Act, House Speaker Mike Johnson said states should consider redrawing House maps before November’s elections. New boundaries would help the GOP.
Louisiana suspends House primaries after Supreme Court redistricting ruling: Politico reports GOP Gov. Jeff Landry issued an executive order Thursday delaying the elections until July 15 at the earliest — though the state’s Senate primary is unaffected.
AP: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says he’ll sign redistricting bill when he gets it
Jeffries lays out more targets for gerrymanders in response to GOP’s renewed push: Politico reports the House minority leader said Democrats will continue to be aggressive in their gerrymandering counterefforts after the Supreme Court opened the door to more Republican redraws.
Democrats realize good government is bad politics when it comes to maps: A decade ago, the party sought independent redistricting commissions. Now, in an era of extreme gerrymandering, such efforts could slow Democrats as they try to keep up with Republicans. NYT
Voting rights ruling could fuel era of endless redistricting wars: NYT reports the expected flood of new congressional maps is likely to produce fewer competitive districts, fewer ways for voters to hold elected officials accountable, and more polarized politics.
Trump administration imposes caps on graduate school loans: NYT reports the changes stem from student loan provisions in a sprawling tax and domestic policy bill signed into law last year.
House passes stalled Homeland security funding bill, ending shutdown: NYT reports Republicans were forced to use a special maneuver to steer around opposition in their own party and speed the measure to the floor, relying on Democratic cooperation to push it through.
Congress ends record-shattering DHS shutdown: Politico reports the House acted after weeks of delay to fund most Homeland Security agencies, which have gone unfunded for 76 days.
+ Trump, who had urged lawmakers to pass the bill, signed the measure into law Thursday afternoon, funding DHS agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Coast Guard, the Transportation Security Administration, and the Secret Service through the end of September.
CNBC: US senators ban themselves from prediction markets trading
Trump sons to take stake in Kazakh miner that won $1.6bn US backing: FT reports Donald Jr and Eric have sought to capitalise on sectors supported by father’s presidential administration.
Voters say they want young candidates. In practice, they do not: The Massachusetts Senate primary offers a case study. Economist
Janet Mills bows out of Maine Senate race as an insurgent Democrat rises: NYT reports her withdrawal reflects the energy of the party’s left and voters’ unease with older candidates and paves the way for Graham Platner to challenge Senator Susan Collins in November.
Mills exit is a blow to Schumer as Democrats question his strategy: NYT reports Senator Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat and minority leader, considered the Maine governor his top recruit for winning the majority. Critics said her collapse showed he is out of touch with the party’s voters.
Popular KC-area pastor launches challenge to Roger Marshall — with a twist: KC Star reports a crucial US Senate race in Kansas is coming into focus. One of the biggest questions looming over Sen. Roger Marshall’s first re-election bid was answered on Thursday after the Rev. Adam Hamilton officially launched a campaign to challenge the incumbent Republican — as a Democrat.
A top GOP super PAC warns ‘the Republican Senate majority is at risk’: Politico reports leaders of the powerful GOP super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action are calling on Republicans to fix their cost-of-living messaging.
George HW Bush was the first sitting Vice President elected to the Presidency (by vote) since Martin Van Buren did it in 1837.
Amazon discusses ‘Apprentice’ reboot—with Don Jr. as a potential host: WSJ reports studio executives have held internal discussions about making new episodes of reality TV show.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
CNBC: Intel’s stock more than doubles in April for best month in chipmaker’s 55 years on Nasdaq
CNBC: AI boom: Big Tech capital expenditures now seen topping $1 trillion in 2027
+ Artificial intelligence investment is projected to keep growing at a parabolic pace through 2027, with Wall Street analysts now estimating $1 trillion in total spending.
+ Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta reported quarterly earnings on Wednesday evening.
+ Companies are seeing increased monetization, but cash flow among the so-called hyperscalers is dwindling.
+ The buildout is good news for chipmakers and infrastructure builders.
The AI supply crunch is here: Choke points are changing AI’s economics. Economist
Mark Zuckerberg blames slower sales on war, layoffs on AI costs in meeting: WSJ reports in an internal Q&A with employees, Meta’s CEO says company will shrink teams and develop more new apps as AI changes workflows.
Big Tech’s AI payback might be coming into view: Earnings hint at growth trajectory despite increases in capital spending. Richard Waters
Palantir is making a French chore coat. Yes, that Palantir. The data analysis company is selling a version of the jacket that it says will show its commitment to “re-industrializing America.” NYT
Meta cuts contractors who reported seeing Ray-Ban Meta users have sex: ARS reports Meta said the Kenyan workers didn’t “meet our standards.”
AI companies are just companies: As we leap into a new technological age, the old rules of capitalism still apply. Robert Armstrong
Elon Musk and Sam Altman bring their rivalry to court: Of the two unloved billionaires, which will the jury trust? Economist
CNBC: OpenAI trial recap: Musk concludes testimony, lawyers spar over second witness
Still powered by iPhones, Apple reports 17% sales jump: NYT reports the Silicon Valley company, which is undergoing a chief executive transition, also reported a 19 percent increase in profit.
Apple posts record March quarter results on 28% sales jump in China: Nikkei reports the iPhone giant reports strong growth across Asia.
Apple beats expectations and reports $111 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026.
Apple credits ‘most popular’ ever iPhone for booming sales: FT reports John Ternus pledges to continue ‘deliberateness and discipline’ in first comments since being named next CEO.
CNBC: Reddit reports 69% jump in revenue, topping analyst estimates
More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off: Sensitive information and the prediction markets can be a winning combination. ARS
Blue Origin certainly has ambitious launch targets for New Glenn: If Blue Origin wants to launch New Glenn 100 times a year, we’re here for it. ARS
Blue Owl draws in $9bn as private credit market cools: FT reports growth in headline figure obscures worse than expected $700mn increase in fee-paying assets.
How Revolut became a verb — if not yet a lender: Boss Nik Storonsky is hoping that a US banking licence and an IPO will sustain fintech’s breakneck growth. FT
Toyota to build 3 India plants, tripling output in country: Nikkei reports the automaker will use facilities to export to growing Africa, Middle East markets.
Volkswagen targets European production cut as profits fall: FT reports VW takes €500mn hit from shelving EV output at US plant while rival Stellantis returns to profit as it pivots back to petrol.
CNBC: Rivian renegotiates DOE loan down to $4.5 billion, adjusts capacity plans for Georgia plant
Why are we still driving? Confronting the weirdness of a Waymo future. Ross Douthat
Got ‘Ozempic breath?’ Hershey sees GLP-1 lift for mints, gum: Bloomberg reports GLP-1 drugs can cause side effects such as nausea, dry mouth and "Ozempic breath" or burps, leading users to chew more gum. Hershey Co. CEO Kirk Tanner said GLP-1 users continue to buy candy and chocolate because they are packaged in small portions and are seen as a treat.
*** Caracal Global ***
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services for Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio companies — Intelligence + Strategy + Communications, without the overhead of a full-time hire.
Our clients are senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications.
If the Iran escalation, the Hormuz crisis, or the China stability narrative is now on your board's agenda and you don't have a geopolitical officer in the room, that's the conversation we should be having.
Four tiers of service: Advisory | Representative | Senator | Presidential.
More @ caracal.global.
*** Culture ***
Is Banksy heading for a fall? His new statue certainly is: Recently outed as Robin Gunningham from Bristol, the artist has mounted a rogue sculpture on a fake plinth in the heart of London. Our art critic braves the crowds to inspect it. The Times
New Banksy statue causes stir in Central London: NYT reports the statue depicts a man marching with a flag that covers his face. It appeared in a section of London near statues of 19th-century British military and colonial figures.
Hong Kong is a conduit for looted Chinese antiquities: The financial hub abounds with precious wares. Economist
Céline Dion will generate the equivalent of one-fifth of the economic impact of the Paris Olympics: Le Monde reports the singer's series of concerts scheduled for this fall could bring up to €1 billion to the French economy.
The Crown prequel to span Victoria’s death to Elizabeth II’s wedding: Telegraph reports Peter Morgan expected to return to helm historical drama’s £500m Netflix deal.
‘Animal Farm’ review: Mucking up Orwell: Andy Serkis directs an animated, awkwardly contemporary adaptation of the anti-Stalinist novella featuring the voices of Seth Rogen, Glenn Close, Woody Harrelson, and more. WSJ
Berlin nightlife was built on excess. Gen Z prefer ‘coffee raves’: Notorious for its hedonistic techno clubs, the city is embracing a health-conscious trend of daytime events that finish by Saturday afternoon. The Times
Venice Biennale jury resigns amid tension over awards ban: NYT reports the jury of the world’s most important art exhibition had said it wouldn’t consider artists from countries whose leaders are accused of crimes against humanity.
*** Sport ***
Amazon to televise 3 marquee Duke basketball games as part of landmark deal: ESPN reports the Blue Devils will face UConn in Las Vegas on Nov. 25, reigning champion Michigan at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21, and Gonzaga in Detroit on Feb. 20. The deal will include extensive NIL opportunities for Duke athletics and is part of a broader retail partnership expected to be announced at a later date.
FIFA president Gianni Infantino says Iran will participate at the World Cup this summer and they will play their group games in the US as originally planned.
The star freshman powering college softball’s home run explosion: WSJ reports Oklahoma freshman Kendall Wells is shredding the NCAA record book. But she’s not alone, as two others also chase the single-season home-run mark.
Former Wizards star John Wall joins Howard basketball as team president: WP reports Wall, who retired last year, will advise the program’s coaches and mentor players, coach Kenny Blakeney said.
In motorsport, there’s nowhere to hide as AI becomes new CFD tool: AI finds value in motorsport, multiplying limited computational fluid dynamics resources. ARS
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | May 1
