Caracal Global Daily
May 5, 2026
Washington, DC
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Hormuz is an energy situation: Trump's "Project Freedom" escort operation launched Monday into immediate Iranian threats against any foreign military force entering the strait. Shipowners are not crossing. Oil jumped. US gasoline averaged $4.45 over the weekend. Diesel is approaching record highs. Spirit Airlines collapsed under jet fuel scarcity. CPI is running 3.3 percent. This is the rare geopolitical event that lands directly on margins, logistics, and guidance, whoa.
2. China formally tells US sanctions to wait: Beijing directed Hengli Petrochemical and other companies to ignore US measures targeting Iran-linked private refiners. Bloomberg, citing Eurasia Group, calls it unprecedented. For any multinational operating across both jurisdictions, secondary sanctions are no longer theoretical this week.
3. Aluminum supply breaks America's bestselling vehicle: The Wall Street Journal reports the Ford F-150 is taking the brunt of metal-supply-chain dysfunction. Iran-driven energy, China-driven minerals leverage, and Trump-driven tariff stack are converging on a single assembly line. Manufacturers who are already nearshoring are now late.
4. Europe convenes in Armenia without Washington: More than thirty European heads of state, plus Canada's PM Mark Carney, met to discuss collective security as the Trump-Europe rift widens. Friedrich Merz is publicly tussling with the White House. David French, in the New York Times, calls Zelensky the leader of the free world.
5. Commercial AI deployment moves from pilot to industrial scale: Anthropic announced a venture with Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman Sachs to bring Claude into midsize-company operations. OpenAI raised over $4 billion for "The Deployment Company," backed by TPG, Brookfield, Advent, and Bain.
*** Ross Rant ***
2Bobs on Brigadoon
On the April 22 episode of 2Bobs, David C. Baker and Blair Enns opened the show with an unprompted few minutes about Brigadoon.
Both were with us at Sundance Mountain Resort earlier this year, and what they shared with their audience captures the event better than I usually do.
They captured fully what I am attempting to build and create with Brigadoon gatherings.
No name tags. No PowerPoints. No audio-visual equipment.
Assemble a diverse set of subject matter experts from different states, different nations, and different ideas and insights.
A cardiologist, roboticists, AI researchers, civic leaders, wellness entrepreneurs, fashion designers, academics, pro sport executives, and agency principals, all in the same room. The format gets out of the way so the people in it can find each other.
Grateful to David and Blair for the commercial and for all they have done to help me become a better businessman and a better man.
Transcript and full podcast, click here.
If it piques your curiosity about Utah next winter, Scotland this fall, or a salon dinner closer to home, get in touch.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Trump says US to escort ‘neutral’ ships: Semafor reports Trump on Sunday announced a new operation to escort “neutral” ships that are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. “Project Freedom,” set to commence Monday, is aimed at assisting “innocent bystanders,” Trump said, without specifying which countries the effort would apply to.
US vessels ‘pass through Strait of Hormuz’: The Times reports American officials say two merchant ships crossed the waterway despite Iranian threats, as US warships operate in the Gulf.
Iran says ships being ‘guided’ by US through Hormuz must work with its armed forces: Guardian reports shipowners wary as Iran says it will attack any foreign military entering waterway under Trump plan.
AFP: Any US ‘interference’ in Hormuz would be ceasefire violation, Iran official claims
Iran defies Trump and tightens its grip on Hormuz: WP reports shipowners said they were unwilling to risk a crossing given the threat of attack from Iran and a lack of clarity around how the new American operation would work.
Iran threatens retaliation after Trump says US will guide ships in Strait of Hormuz: WP reports the president left unclear what measures the US would take and whether any forces would be at risk. Iran said it would strike any foreign force approaching the strait.
NYT: Oil jumps as Iran resists Trump’s offer to help ships through Strait of Hormuz
Airlines slash flights as fuel shortage fears mount: FT reports millions of seats cut as Middle East crisis throws global travel into disarray.
+ The demise of American budget carrier Spirit Airlines reflects how the jet fuel crisis stemming from the Iran war is imperiling the global travel industry, analysts said.
+ Starting Wednesday, in the Philippines, Southeast Asian leaders, whose nations are among those most affected by the Iran war, are set to hold a summit
+ US gas prices hit an average of $4.45 a gallon over the weekend
+ The price of diesel is approaching record highs, with knock-on effects for numerous goods. CPI inflation is running at 3.3 percent, higher than when Trump came to power
An aluminum crisis is roiling the auto industry: WSJ reports America’s top-selling vehicle, the Ford F-150, bears the brunt of metal-supply-chain woes.
+ More than 30 European leaders and Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, arrived in Armenia ahead of a summit. They will discuss how to strengthen their collective security amid a deepening rift between Trump and Europe.
Friedrich Merz’s ill-timed tussle with Donald Trump: The chancellor’s reckless truth-telling means trouble for Germany. Economist
Meet the new leader of the free world David French
Ukraine is increasingly playing the role of global security provider — rather than recipient — as US allies question the extent of Washington’s security guarantees, experts said. Kyiv has become an arms powerhouse by building up its drone capabilities and bolstering defense partnerships that give it additional geopolitical leverage.
Inside the Ukrainian factory making missiles that could reach Moscow: As Fire Point weapons strike Russian ports, the tech firm is developing long-range missiles and a ballistic shield to rival Western technology. The Times
‘I’m fighting two wars. One against the Russians. And one inside myself.’ A drone pilot and her all-women unit are waging a new kind of warfare on Ukraine’s eastern front. FT
Poisonous black rain falls in Russia as Ukraine strikes oil facilities: WP reports residents of Tuapse, on the Black Sea, complained of an inadequate government response and coverup of what they say is a huge environmental and health disaster.
Vladimir Putin hunkers down for fear of assassination: FT reports security around Russia’s president tightens after audacious drone attacks from Ukraine.
How a lawless Istanbul neighbourhood weathered a decade of political shocks: Through regional wars, terrorism and mass migration, an area of the old city was transformed by forces beyond its residents’ imaginations. FT
Britain enters the era of seven-party politics: Labour and the Conservatives combined account for barely a third of voters in polls — threatening the UK’s constitutional certainties. FT
Reform’s pub crawl to power: It’s not easy to satisfy the working class and the super-rich. But do they both just want to have fun? Economist
The battle between Scotland’s two national languages: The one that the British once banned is winning. Economist
What to do about Britain’s rising antisemitism? A stabbing attack in a Jewish neighbourhood of London lends fresh urgency to the question. Economist
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run: Le Monde reports that despite the emergence of several figures within La France Insoumise and his promise to step aside after the 2022 election, in which he gathered 21.95% of the vote, the populist leader announced his candidacy on Sunday.
Meloni fails to hit high note in Italy’s culture wars: Opera houses, museums, and Venice Biennale roiled by rightwing government’s bid to control the arts. FT
Chinese court says AI no excuse for firings: Semafor reports a Chinese court ruled that companies can’t use AI as a justification for getting rid of employees. The ruling last week sided with a tech worker who was fired after refusing to accept a demotion when his job was automated by AI. The decision, which legal scholars said is a landmark moment for labor protections in China, comes as Beijing looks to balance its support for AI innovation with job market challenges.
China seeks an advantage with both Trump and Iran as war evolves: With President Trump’s visit to Beijing looming, China is pushing Iran to negotiate even as its companies export material that could be used by Iran’s military. NYT
China is building soft power as Trump burns bridges: After years of struggling to match the global popularity of the US, Japan, and South Korea, Beijing’s image is improving. Gideon Rachman
Bloomberg: China’s unprecedented defiance of US sanctions triggers showdown
+ China has ordered its companies to ignore US sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance that threatens to trap a vast banking sector in the crossfire as tension rises between the world’s largest economies.
+ Beijing has directed companies not to abide by US sanctions on private refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade, including heavyweight Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co.
+ China’s move will test the US sanctions system, with the US reaction to the blocking measure likely to indicate if the matter escalates, according to analysts from Eurasia Group.
AUS + JPN: Australia’s prime minister hosted his Japanese counterpart in a meeting of two major nations that are anxious over China’s rise.
A tour of Brazil’s wildly polarised politics: Lula and Bolsonaro voters don't agree on much. But they all hate the corruption that plagues Brazil. Economist
Bloomberg: Argentines keep cash under mattresses even as Milei pushes bank accounts
+ President Javier Milei's effort to coax Argentine savers to deposit their cash in dollar-denominated accounts is struggling to gain traction due to citizens' distrust of the government and banks.
+ Officials estimate roughly $170 billion sits outside banks, and unlocking a fraction of that could help revive South America's second-largest economy.
+ A new set of incentives called Fiscal Innocence has so far failed to trigger a meaningful shift among savers, with dollar deposits rising less than $1 billion since it debuted in February.
Rubio to meet with Pope Leo amid Trump’s clash with pontiff on Iran: WP reports the secretary of state will travel to Italy this week, the State Department said. Observers view the trip as an attempt to patch up ties with the Vatican and Italy.
The US Army’s ‘big experiment’ in the Arctic Cold: How would soldiers from places like Florida, Texas, and Georgia fight and persevere in temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees? NYT
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Congress: The House and Senate are out this week.
Trump administration cites national security to widen clampdown on wind farms: FT reports that the Defense Department is stalling 165 projects as the president steps up efforts to stamp out the industry.
The antiabortion movement is turning on Trump: WSJ reports the ubiquity of abortion pills during the second Trump administration has frustrated antiabortion advocates.
Young men are souring on Donald Trump: But can Democrats win them over? Economist
High housing costs are pushing foreclosures to a six-year high: WSJ reports homes with foreclosure filings jump 26% in first quarter, partly reflecting rising property taxes and insurance premiums.
History: 18 of the past 20 midterm elections have seen the president’s party lose seats in the House.
America’s political identity crisis: The outer edges of both parties are overlapping on a growing number of issues. Rana Foroohar
Dems' foreign policy group prepping for '28: Senior Democrats are rebooting an influential foreign policy group to help potential 2028 presidential candidates and bring together national security specialists who could staff the next Democratic administration, Axios has learned. Founded in 2018, National Security Action (NSA) influenced Democrats' foreign policy messaging in the 2020 election and ultimately helped staff much of President Biden's national security team.
+ National Security Action has picked Maher Bitar, who has worked for Democrats on Capitol Hill and in the White House, to lead the group going into the 2028 primary season.
Rahm Emanuel, a 2028 presidential prospect, is planning a three-day, 113-mile, east-to-west “Spin-Free” bicycle tour of New Hampshire from June 5-7.
Entrepreneurs flocked to Colorado. Now red tape is driving some away. WSJ reports a proposed AI bill has many wondering whether the state’s regulations are killing its entrepreneurial spirit. “If you can’t move, you’re dead.”
Did school cellphone bans work? New study finds mixed results. NYT reports cellphone bans got devices out of students’ hands, according to the first large study. But behavior and academics have not improved, at least so far.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
NASA says it will put humans on the surface of the moon in 2028. How realistic is that? There have already been numerous delays since the lunar program was announced in 2010. CBC
Singapore Airlines said it will begin rolling out a Starlink broadband service on its flights from 2027, with the system promising faster connectivity than its existing in-flight offering.
Global carmakers desperately want to be more Chinese: But partnering with local companies carries big risks. Economist
WSJ: GameStop offers to buy eBay for $56 billion
Ask dot com shut down after nearly 30 years.
AI-driven copper mine breaks ground: Semafor reports that work has begun on a $2.3 billion copper mine in Zambia, backed by tech billionaires including Bill Gates and Sam Altman. The Mingomba mine will be among the largest copper mines in the world and will eventually produce 300,000 tons of copper a year. AI is involved in every level of the project: The demand for copper is being driven up by data center construction and the need to diversify global supply chains away from China.
ChatGPT wrestles with its most chilling conversation: How do I plan an attack? OpenAI’s chatbot dispenses advice on weapons and role-plays mass shootings. The carnage is raising scrutiny on when and how companies intervene. WSJ
Start-ups challenge Apple over curbs on AI ‘vibe coding’ apps: iPhone maker warns about security risks as new software floods its review process. FT
AI in the workplace: What separates adopters and holdouts: Adoption rises when AI tools fit existing workflows, demonstrate clear value, and are championed by managers. Gallup
Anthropic is partnering with Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman Sachs to form a new company that will bring artificial intelligence to a broad group of midsize companies. The enterprise services firm will deploy Claude into companies’ core business operations, according to a statement on Monday.
OpenAI has raised more than $4 billion for a new joint venture focused on helping businesses adopt its artificial intelligence software, according to a person familiar with the matter. The new venture, called The Deployment Company, drew backing from 19 investors, including TPG, Brookfield Asset Management, Advent, and Bain Capital, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the information is not public.
Junior bankers sick of grunt work build $2 billion AI tool to do the job: Rogo, started by young bankers around a kitchen table in 2021, just won a multibillion-dollar valuation. Bloomberg
Elon Musk went to court. The judge wasn’t amused. Elon Musk’s outsize reputation, provocative remarks, and his friction with a federal judge have dominated the trial in his case against ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. WP
The $11 billion casino-style economy built on players who can never cash out: Apple and Google are raking in money from social casinos that replace real winnings with virtual coins and dopamine hits. Some players have spent more than $1 million to keep playing. Bloomberg
Why almost everyone loses—except a few sharks—on prediction markets: A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi—often pros using data-driven algorithmic trading—take home most of the winnings. WSJ
The law firm that shaped Wall Street and the world: With fewer than 300 lawyers, Wachtell racked up bumper profits and exercised outsize influence. Now its model is being challenged as never before. FT
*** Caracal Global ***
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services for Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio companies — Intelligence + Strategy + Communications, without the overhead of a full-time hire.
Our clients are senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications.
If the Iran escalation, the Hormuz crisis, or the China stability narrative is now on your board's agenda and you don't have a geopolitical officer in the room, that's the conversation we should be having.
Four tiers of service: Advisory | Representative | Senator | Presidential.
More @ caracal.global.
*** Culture ***
Today: Nominations will be announced for the 79th Annual Tony Awards.
Millennials spend more time than past generations with their children: America’s child-care gender gap is narrowing rapidly. Economist
How Detroit’s art scene is ushering in a new chapter for the city Vogue
Must we really ‘do lunch’? Yes, we’re late to this. But no one has solved it yet, so here goes. Robert Shrimsley
Germany claims it has the world’s best bread: May 5th is National Bread Day, and Germans are ready to roll. Economist
*** Sport ***
The 76ers are suddenly an NBA playoff nightmare: Philadelphia’s long-misbegotten basketball franchise revives on the fly to stun Boston. Is New York next? Jason Gay
Pickleball at the Olympics? Australian advocates' 'crazy' ambition: Nikkei reports sport surges Down Under but hurdles stand in way of vaulting into Brisbane Games.
Bloomberg: Mittal family, Poonawalla to buy IPL franchise for $1.65 billion
+ A consortium led by Lakshmi Mittal and Adar Poonawalla will acquire Indian franchise cricket team Rajasthan Royals in a deal valued at $1.65 billion.
+ Mittal will own about 75% equity in the team along with his family, while Adar Poonawalla will own around 18% and existing investors will retain near 7% stake.
+ The deal includes Rajasthan Royals' units Paarl Royals and Barbados Royals and is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026, subject to approvals from regulators.
Confusion surrounds East Potomac shutdown: ‘None of this makes any sense’: WP reports as Democracy Forward asked a federal judge to block the Trump administration from taking over DC's busiest public golf course, feelings ran deep for those who lingered into the evening.
FIFA has met its match in the Garden State: FIFA got what it wanted from dictators and oil sheiks. Elected politicians in New Jersey are proving harder to please. Politico
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | May 5
