Caracal Global Daily
May 15, 2026
Columbus, OH
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. So far, the Trump-Xi summit produced optics, not deliverables: Xi placed Taiwan at the center of the bilateral relationship, warning of "collision or conflict" if mishandled. No major rare-earth or AI agreements were announced. Trump secured 200 Boeing jets and agricultural purchases. The White House readout did not mention Taiwan. The "shrinking summit" framing is now confirmed. Plan for managed stability, not a grand bargain.
2. The Hormuz crisis is now a midterm-political story: Gas prices are up roughly 50% since the Iran conflict escalated, consumer sentiment is at 1952 lows, and Trump is now floating a federal gas tax holiday. The House Iran war powers resolution failed on a 212-212 vote. Hormuz is the central domestic issue for the next 6-12 months.
3. The UK government is in open revolt: Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned with an unusually direct rebuke of Starmer, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham triggered a path back to Westminster via the Makerfield byelection, and 92+ Labour MPs have called on the PM to set a departure date. The UK is no longer a safe planning assumption for European HQ structure or regulatory continuity.
4. AI capital reached a new altitude: Anthropic agreed terms on a $30 billion round at a $900 billion pre-money valuation, nearly tripling its February valuation. Cerebras popped 68% on its Nasdaq debut. Ford pivoted into data center power. The AI build-out is now reshaping adjacent sectors faster than Usain Bolt. Energy, real estate, and industrial allocations all impacted.
5. "Deal Team Six" is racing to break China's rare earth grip: Even as Trump sends positive vibes from Beijing, a Pentagon unit is moving billions to build an independent supply of rare earth elements and magnets. Rare earths are everywhere, but the processing isn't. The operational decoupling continues regardless of summit messaging. Manufacturers and defense suppliers should align their procurement strategies with the Pentagon's industrial policy direction, not with short-term diplomatic considerations.
*** Ross Rant ***
24 books on China that global executives should read
China is all over the news. Tariff exposure. Supply chain rerouting. Hormuz and Malacca shipping math. Taiwan contingency planning. AI and semiconductor export controls. Rare earths concentration. Capital flow restrictions. Global executives are fielding harder questions about China than at any point since Nixon went to Beijing, and most are answering them based on headlines and cable news talking heads.
Headlines are not a strategy. They are weather reports. Strategy requires depth, the kind that comes from reading the people who spent careers inside the country, inside the Party, inside the deal rooms, and inside the supply chains.
I initially crafted this list in December 2020. Six years on, the environment has shifted dramatically. Xi has consolidated power. Trump has returned. The PLA has been purged, with roughly 20 Chinese generals removed since March 2023. The Belt and Road has changed shape. American sentiment on China has hardened across both parties. AF1 has landed in Beijing under a second-term president working with a weaker hand than he played in 2018. But the books on this list still work. They explain how China got here, how the Party actually thinks, how the economy functions beneath the official statistics, and how Beijing engages the rest of the world.
This is not a list for graduate students. It is for the senior executive who has to answer a board question on Tuesday, a customer question on Wednesday, and a reporter question on Thursday. It cannot answer any of them with a press release.
Three on the Party itself and how it runs the country:
The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers by Richard McGregor. Still the best opening text on how the CCP operates inside the state. Read this first.
The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State by Elizabeth C. Economy. The Xi consolidation thesis was written before most analysts had caught up.
China Goes Global: The Partial Power by David Shambaugh. A disciplined assessment of how much China actually projects abroad versus how much it claims to.
Four on the economy beneath the headline GDP number:
Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise by Carl Walter. The plumbing. Painful, technical, essential. The book that made the Evergrande story predictable.
The China Strategy: Harnessing the Power of the World's Fastest-Growing Economy by Edward Tse. The operator's view of the inside of the multinational China strategy.
Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower by Henry M. Paulson Jr. The dealmaker's memoir. Useful for understanding how senior Beijing relationships were actually built during the engagement era.
Beijing Jeep: A Case Study of Western Business in China by Jim Mann. The original cautionary tale. Every foreign CEO entering China should read this before getting on the plane.
Three on China going global:
China's Second Continent by Howard French. Chinese migration, investment, and influence across Africa. The book that reframes the Belt and Road conversation.
China's Silent Army: The Pioneers, Traders, Fixers, and Workers Who Are Remaking the World in Beijing's Image by Juan Pablo Cardenal. Reporting from the field across the developing world. Where the New Silk Road actually touches the ground.
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power by Robert D. Kaplan. The maritime theater. If you do not understand the Indian Ocean, you do not understand Chinese energy security or American national security.
Four on the American policy conversation, in its own words:
Obama and China's Rise: An Insider's Account of America's Asia Strategy by Jeffrey A. Bader. The Pivot to Asia from inside the Situation Room. Useful for tracing the origins of the current China policy.
On China by Henry Kissinger. Necessary context for the diplomatic logic that built the engagement framework. Read it knowing the framework has evolved.
The World America Made by Robert Kagan. The case for American primacy. The intellectual scaffolding under the current China hawkishness.
Blaming China: It Might Feel Good, But It Won't Fix America's Economy by Benjamin Shobert. The contrarian read from a one-time Brigadoon Utah speaker. Sharpens your thinking by attacking the easy narrative.
Four on the long view:
The Penguin History of Modern China: The Fall and Rise of a Great Power, 1850 to 2009 by Jonathan Fenby. The single-volume history. Start here if you are starting at zero.
Will China Dominate the 21st Century? by Jonathan Fenby. The companion analytical volume. Useful even if the answer has shifted since publication.
The Dragon and the Foreign Devils: China and the World, 1100 BC to the Present by Harry Gelber. The deepest historical lens on the list. Reminds you that China was a great power long before it was a developing one.
When America First Met China: An Exotic History of Tea, Drugs, and Money in the Age of Sail by Eric Jay Dolin. The earliest chapter of the US-China commercial relationship. Useful for executives who think the relationship started with Nixon.
Four on China at street level:
Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos. The best single book on what Chinese citizens actually believe and want. Won the National Book Award. Earns it.
China Road: A Journey into the Future of a Rising Power by Rob Gifford. Route 312 across China. The country at ground level.
The Forbidden Game: Golf and the Chinese Dream by Dan Washburn. China, through the lens of an industry that the Party officially banned and unofficially built. Better business reportage than most business books.
Brave Dragons: A Chinese Basketball Team, an American Coach, and Two Cultures Clashing by Jim Yardley. The cultural collision compressed into one season. Funny, useful, and a faster read than anything else on this list.
Two on the trade and supply chain frame:
Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization by Stephen S. Roach. The Morgan Stanley view of regional economic integration. The framing still maps onto current supply chain conversations.
The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy: An Economist Examines the Markets, Power, and Politics of World Trade by Pietra Rivoli. The single best book on how global trade actually moves through a real product, and a foundational text from my GWU class on Globalization and American Politics. If you have one tariff conversation this year, read this first.
Working through the list takes about a quarter if you push it, and about two quarters if you read it like a normal executive. The investment is small. The strategic return is significant. Board members will notice. So will customers, regulators, and journalists who continue to call about your exposure to China.
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services to Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio firms navigating tariff volatility, China exposure, supply chain disruption, and a US political environment that is reshaping regulatory frameworks on a quarterly basis. Four service tiers, Advisory, Representative, Senator, and Presidential, are calibrated to how deeply you need geopolitical intelligence embedded with your leadership team.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc.
You can always reach me @ marc@caracal.global.
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Day 1 of Beijing Summit Produces No Big Wins for Trump: FP reports from the Iran war to trade, the US president failed to secure major concessions from his counterpart.
CNBC: Five takeaways from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing so far
+ Xi and Trump agreed to build a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability”
+ China’s door to opening up will only open wider, Xi said
+ Deepening cooperation
+ China expressed interest in purchasing more US oil to wean off its reliance on Middle Eastern crude
+ Xi reserved his sharpest language for Taiwan, calling it “the most important issue” in the bilateral relationship
Trade or Taiwan? Trump and Xi struggle to set the terms: Economist reports at a summit in Beijing, business deals may mask divisions on Iran, Ukraine, and AI.
Donald Trump welcomed in Beijing with pomp and a stern warning: Le Monde reports for the US president's visit, Xi Jinping put on a display of grandeur, while remaining very firm on the issue of Taiwan, a matter that determines the entire relationship with Washington.
US-China relationship depends on Taiwan, Xi warns Trump: The Times reports the two leaders remained cautious at their summit in Beijing, as they tested the more equal competitive relationship between their nations.
Xi’s Taiwan warning highlights tensions behind Trump summit: WSJ reports the Chinese leader’s comment that any mishandling of Taiwan could lead to “an extremely dangerous situation” raised an issue that has loomed over Trump’s trip.
About that Taiwan ‘Thucydides Trap’: Xi Jinping likes the Greek analogy because he thinks China is the rising power and the US in decline. He might think twice about that. WSJ-Editorial
Trump bristles ahead of more talks with Xi: NYT reports tours before meeting again with China’s leader, President Trump pushed back on what he described as a suggestion from Xi Jinping that the United States was a “declining nation.”
Trump was flattering, Xi was resolute. The difference spoke volumes. In contrast to his rhetoric about China at home, President Trump spoke in conciliatory terms with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader. NYT
Trump’s and Xi’s body language at the summit mirrored their styles: Although at odds over issues like trade and Taiwan, the US and Chinese leaders met in Beijing with a show of friendly gestures. NYT
What Trump and Xi didn’t discuss is as important as what they did: Not on the agenda in Beijing: nuclear weapons, extensive discussion of Taiwan, or women at the negotiating table. Jessica Karl
Donald Trump’s China trip melds corporate interests and communist pomp: FT reports president touts his friendship with Xi Jinping and future opportunities for his entourage of US business titans.
Xi Jinping tells Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple CEOs that China will ‘open wider’: FT reports US business leaders praise ‘great importance’ of Chinese market on visit to Beijing alongside Donald Trump.
+ China has agreed to buy American oil
+ China will order 200 Boeing jets
+ US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer anticipates that China would commit to billions in American agricultural purchases
Inside the secret mission to fly Taiwan’s president to Africa: NYT reports from satellite phone check-ins to a borrowed royal plane, new details show how Taiwan’s leader’s team outwitted China and pulled off an audacious journey to southern Africa.
Philippines no longer military 'weakling' but buildup has far to go: Nikkei reports enhanced navy and air force would still need help to repel Chinese attack.
Donald Trump’s allies pin hopes on Xi Jinping to defuse Strait of Hormuz crisis: FT reports summit comes as oil supply shock has triggered a worsening energy crisis and threatens Republicans’ midterm prospects.
Saudi Arabia floats Middle Eastern non-aggression pact with Iran: FT reports European nations swing behind idea discussed with Riyadh to model agreement on 1970s Helsinki process.
A top US commander dismisses reports of civilian deaths in Iran: NYT reports Adm. Brad Cooper said a strike on an Iranian school may have been the only civilian casualty incident of the war.
ST: US House narrowly rejects bid to rein in Trump Iran war powers
+ The House voted 212 to 212 on the war powers resolution, meaning it failed because it needed a simple majority to pass.
+ It was the third House vote this year on an Iran war powers resolution, and the first since the conflict hit a 60-day deadline on May 1 for Trump to come to Congress about the war.
Israel to sue New York Times over report on sexual abuse of Palestinian inmates: Le Monde reports Israeli authorities said they will sue the American paper after it published an article describing 'a pattern of widespread Israeli sexual violence' on the same day as an independent Israeli report on Hamas sexual abuse on October 7, 2023.
Pressure mounts on UK’s Starmer as key minister quits: WSJ reports the resignation of Health Secretary Wes Streeting sets the stage for a formal challenge for the leadership of the ruling Labour Party.
MP resignation paves way for Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to challenge Starmer: Irish Times reports Health secretary Wes Streeting resigns from role, saying he has lost confidence in UK prime minister.
ITV: Downing Street will not block Burnham's bid to return to Commons
Anatomy of a coup against Keir: Labour’s lefty members could soon be the most important voters in the country. Economist
Can Keir Starmer survive? Labour leadership scenarios explained: Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are circling — but how will the next days and weeks play out? The Times
Sir Keir Starmer has failed abjectly. He should go: Britain is not ungovernable—it just needs better governance. Economist
Keir Starmer braced for leadership contest with Andy Burnham: The Times reports the mayor of Greater Manchester makes his move after Wes Streeting, his rival in the fight to become prime minister, ends days of speculation by resigning from the cabinet.
Al Carns would put defence at heart of leadership run: The Times reporta an ally says the defence minister would not trigger a contest but he is ‘not afraid of gunfire’ if someone else fires the initial shots.
Wes Streeting wields the knife: Economist reports the health secretary is ambitious, divisive, and eyeing Number 10.
Burnham’s return to Westminster will not be so easy: The surge of Reform in Makerfield presents a significant challenge. Stephen Bush
You’ll miss Keir Starmer when he’s gone Nick Cohen
Polanski admits he did not vote in local elections: The Times reports Green Party leader had previously indicated through a spokesman that he had cast a postal vote in Hackney.
Russian parliament approves law allowing Putin to invade other countries: EN reports Russia's State Duma approved a law allowing the use of the armed forces “to protect Russian citizens abroad,” which de facto permits Vladimir Putin to invade other countries.
Russia's prison population falls by 40%, partly by sending convicts to fight in Ukraine: EN reports Russia, which has a massive prison network inherited from Soviet labour camps, has one of the world's largest convict populations, though that number has been decreasing in the last 20 years.
EN: Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa announces shock resignation after week of scandals
25%: The rough proportion of Swedish students who struggle to read properly, according to the country’s higher-education minister.
Pope decries rise of AI-directed warfare, saying it leads to a spiral of annihilation: EN reports Pope Leo XIV has identified AI as one of the most critical matters facing humanity, especially its application in warfare and everyday life.
Deepfake Meloni clips distort relations between Italy and Israel: EN reports several viral deepfake clips have spread online with misleading claims about Italy’s relationship with Israel.
Amid blackouts and protests, Cuba says ready to consider a $100 million US aid proposal: Le Mone reports US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered $100 million in aid on Wednesday, on the condition that the Catholic Church distribute the aid, rather than Cuba's communist government, which has blamed a US blockade for the blackouts.
CNN: CIA Director John Ratcliffe meets with Cuban officials in Havana
CIA director makes rare trip to Cuba to demand ‘fundamental changes’: FT reports second US official flight on island in 10 years comes after communist nation runs out of diesel amid four-month blockade.
CIA director travels to Cuba as US intensifies pressure: NYT reports John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, is the highest-ranking official in the Trump administration to visit the country.
Bloomberg: Pentagon’s ‘Deal Team Six’ aims to challenge China’s grip on rare earth power
+ A group known as "Deal Team Six" is working to create an independent source for rare earth elements and magnets used in various products, to prevent China from cutting off supplies.
+ The team is racing to put together deals with billions of dollars in equity stakes, loans, and other financial tools to challenge China's grip on the business.
+ Critics warn that the Pentagon's rush to do deals has led it to back unproven companies and overlook potential conflicts of interest, with some accusing the government of failing to properly screen for corruption.
Trump still hasn’t appointed more than 100 ambassadors, some to key allies: WSJ reports veteran diplomats say unprecedented vacancies hamper US global power but Trump officials dismiss those criticisms.
Trump, with ambitions for Mars, Canada, and Greenland, tries to reclaim frontier myth of pioneer America: Le Monde reports since the very beginning, the US has based its growth on the conquest of new geographical or political frontiers. In this spirit, the current president speaks of other lands – on Earth and in space – while the rise of artificial intelligence opens up uncharted territories.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Should every party be allowed to vote in a primary? New research claims that bipartisan primaries have broad societal benefit, but opposition is growing, and Louisiana voters this weekend will participate in the state’s first closed primary since 1978. NYT
AP: US Border Patrol head announces resignation in latest leadership shakeup
Boeing, Toyota donated $1 million each to transportation secretary’s road-trip show: WSJ reports a video series will feature Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and his family on a road trip to mark America’s 250th birthday and promote tourism.
Supreme Court maintains widespread access to abortion pills: WSJ reports the high court’s decision allows providers to continue sending the common abortion drug mifepristone to patients by mail.
Supreme Court preserves access to mail distribution of widely used abortion pill: WP reports the decision maintains access nationwide to medication abortion, the most common way of ending pregnancies in the United States, while litigation continues.
Trump’s ballroom overshadows GOP’s economic push: WSJ reports the Iran war has deepened voters’ anxieties about costs, and the GOP is struggling to agree on a strategy to address the unease.
The mystery of a Congressman’s absence deepens: NYT reports Representative Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ) last voted in Washington on March 5, citing a medical issue. An appearance planned for late May has been canceled.
Crypto industry notches win in Washington after brawl with banks: WSJ reports marquee crypto bill advances past key Senate committee following furious lobbying campaigns by both sides.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
CNBC: Closing arguments conclude in Musk v. Altman, jury to deliberate next week
CNBC: Cerebras pops 68% in Nasdaq debut, pushing the AI chipmaker’s market cap to $95 billion
Cerebras shares soar in debut, launching year of hotly anticipated AI IPOs: WSJ reports the chip company’s stock rose about 70% above its IPO price, after more than doubling out of the gate.
AI chipmaker jumps to almost $70bn valuation in IPO: FT reports that a jump in Cerebras' share price underscores strong demand for shares in companies linked to the AI boom.
Andy Jassy is rewriting Amazon’s playbook for the AI age: Jassy was once Jeff Bezos’ deputy and the head of Amazon’s cloud computing arm. Five years into his tenure as CEO, he’s killing projects, cutting staff, pleasing Wall Street, and steering the everything store through its greatest challenge yet. Bloomberg
Apple’s security has been tough to crack. Mythos helped find a way in. WSJ reports that during tests in April, researchers found software issues in MacOS, one of the world’s toughest targets for hackers.
Anthropic agrees terms of $30bn funding deal at $900bn valuation: FT reports AI lab has tapped Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia Capital, and Altimeter Capital to lead new round.
Graduates boo commencement speech about AI: NYT reports humanities students made their displeasure known at the University of Central Florida.
AI desperately needs more adult supervision: The critical challenge is to build institutions that protect us from tech companies and the state. John Thornhill
King’s Cross is the Silicon Roundabout of AI: A formerly rundown area has become London’s new global technology hub. John Gapper
Ford shares surge after launch of power unit for data centers: FT reports new subsidiary pivots to energy storage batteries for AI after disastrous electric vehicle writedown.
How to build a data center in space: Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos plan to make AI extraterrestrial. Bloomberg
How Walmart is taking over empty drugstores to speed up deliveries: US retail giant builds last-mile stockrooms in repurposed space to fend off Amazon grocery push. FT
Suzuki set to pass Honda as Japan's No. 2 automaker, driven by India: Nikkei reports Indian sales grow, but Suzuki faces pressure from local players and SUV growth.
Honda stock jumps despite first-ever loss as guidance tops estimates: Yahoo Finance reports Honda is also planning a big hybrid pivot and scrapped its all-EV 2040 goal.
Bloomberg: Toyota files to build $2 billion assembly plant in Texas
Oil prices could soon rise convulsively: Economist reports the present tranquility will not last.
Singapore Airlines expects 'full impact' of fuel cost in fiscal 2026-27: Nikkei reports Thai Airways' Q1 profit up 3%, says it will shift focus to low-risk markets.
*** Caracal Global ***
Caracal Global provides fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services for Fortune 1000 companies and private equity portfolio companies — Intelligence + Strategy + Communications, without the overhead of a full-time hire.
Our clients are senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications.
If the Iran escalation, the Hormuz crisis, or the China stability narrative is now on your board's agenda and you don't have a geopolitical officer in the room, that's the conversation we should be having.
Four tiers of service: Advisory | Representative | Senator | Presidential.
More @ caracal.global.
*** Culture ***
The Met will merge with Neue Galerie, gaining over $1.5 billion in art: WSJ reports Ronald Lauder’s esteemed collection of German and Austrian art will be owned and operated by the Met starting in 2028.
Life, death, and rebirth in the land of the Buddha: Starting at the birthplace of Buddhism, a writer traces how its teachings spread across Asia, transforming the continent forever. NYT
*** Sport ***
This company is building a hockey empire. Many say it’s ruining youth sports. Watch how Black Bear Sports Group’s business model is changing the world of youth hockey. WSJ
CNBC: Group led by Egon Durban to buy 25% of Las Vegas Raiders at $9.9 billion valuation, sources say
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | May 15
