Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 12, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
The transatlantic alliance is down but not out: The Munich Security Conference will serve as a gut check of the frayed relationship and whether Europe can hold on to its emerging self-assurance. Politico
NATO to bolster Arctic presence after Trump Greenland threats: Politico reports NATO wants allies to send maritime patrol vessels to the Arctic and formalize joint exercises near Greenland, military officials say.
War games: Europe is not ready for war with Russia, a wargame suggested, with a relatively small incursion by Moscow’s forces likely to overwhelm forces in a crucial city in Lithuania. The Die Welt-organized simulation imagined a 15,000-strong force attacking Marijampolė, a key highway hub, with the US declining to invoke Article 5 and European capitals slow to respond.
WELT: Without US backing, Europe would struggle to defend against a Russian invasion: Politico reports wargame exercise demonstrated the limits of European decision-making at a time of US pullback.
US signals limited military pullback from Europe: Politico reports: “We will continue to show up,” America's ambassador to NATO said.
Aboard a NATO warship as it practices hunting Russian subs: The alliance is boosting coordination of national forces in the Arctic. WSJ
Pentagon prepares second aircraft carrier to deploy to the Middle East: WSJ reports Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program.
US weighs seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil to pressure Tehran: WSJ reports, but using a strategy the White House directed at Venezuela is seen as likely to spark retaliation by Tehran and a surge in oil prices.
Iran: Trump said he insisted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that nuclear talks with Iran would continue, despite Israeli skepticism about a diplomatic breakthrough.
Vance visits Armenia, Azerbaijan as Trump eyes deals in Russia’s sphere: WP reports the vice president’s historic trip illustrates Trump’s transactional diplomacy and willingness to use economic muscle to elbow out rivals such as Russia and Iran.
Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal: FT reports Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees.
Bloomberg: Zelenskiy says deal on territory is focus of next talks with US
Pressure for Ukraine-Russia deal mounts ahead of fall elections in US: Politico reports as Kyiv continues to suffer nighttime lows of minus 20 Celsius amid Russian strikes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says 2026 US midterms are now the strongest driver for a peace deal.
What it’s like to be a banker in Russia during wartime: The Russian unit of Austria’s Raiffeisen is immensely profitable, but it can’t get the money out of the country. Bloomberg
US, China race for influence in Pakistan: Semafor reports Washington wants to spend $1.25 billion to secure supplies of critical minerals, though the Pakistani region it is focused on has since become a locus of violence: A militant group launched attacks across several towns, and the military said it killed upwards of 200 fighters in response.
NSA pick warns of China pursuing AI chips for weapons: China is “aggressively” looking to acquire advanced artificial intelligence chips in order to “accelerate its development of AI-enhanced weapons,” President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command said in correspondence with Congress first shared with Semafor.
The political battle for AI in space: Will regulatory hurdles give China the edge in orbital data centers? WSJ-Editorial
Analysis: Japan PM's historic landslide reverberates in China: Beijing's foreign policy blunder triggers emergence of 'Takaichi 2.0.' Nikkei
Switzerland to vote on plan to cap population at 10mn: FT reports the country has 9.1mn permanent residents and experts fear the move will limit companies’ access to foreign talent.
France's demographics debate focuses on birth rates while ignoring touchier measures: Le Monde reports that politicians have struggled to address the various aspects of France's current demographic shift. The debate on the issue remains focused on boosting birth rates, while steering clear of more sensitive topics such as immigration or the retirement age.
+ @Polymarket: JUST IN: UK Supreme Court outlaws calling oat milk "milk"
Keir Starmer was aware Lord Doyle backed paedophile, No 10 admits: The Times reports Kemi Badenoch accused the PM of appointing ‘paedophile apologists’ over Doyle’s peerage, following his support for a councillor charged with sex offences.
The alternatives to Sir Keir: Eventually the improbable, the implausible or the once-impossible will become inevitable. Economist
Nigeria steps up US lobbying push: Per Semafor, the Nigerian government is mounting an aggressive lobbying campaign in Washington as it faces an onslaught of criticism over claims of Christian genocide from the Trump administration. First Lady Remi Tinubu, an ordained Christian pastor, attended the annual National Prayer Breakfast gathering hosted by US President Donald Trump last week as part of the effort. She also appeared on several conservative US media outlets and met with members of Congress. Nigerian officials and their allies have emphasized Tinubu’s pastoral role as evidence that the government cannot credibly be accused of enabling religious persecution.
ARG: Argentina’s inflation rate accelerated for a fifth straight month, suggesting President Javier Milei’s campaign to slash soaring prices may be faltering.
Brazil’s economy is being throttled by entrenched interests: The country should be faring much better. Economist
Treasury allows US companies to provide supplies to Venezuela for oil production: WSJ reports Trump administration put out a new general license authorizing equipment and technology transactions.
Canada’s big six banks on board for new multinational defence bank: BMO joins peers to support bank dedicated to financing defence projects for NATO members and allies. G+M
Canada wants NATO’s new Arctic Sentry security mission to become permanent, Anand says: G+M reports mission aims to co-ordinate increasing military presence of allies in the region.
Canada’s muscular new anti-Trump strategy debuts in Greenland: How an icy town of 20,000 became a testing ground for the new international order. Politico
Bridge owner lobbied administration before Trump blasted competing span to Canada: A Detroit billionaire met with Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, hours before President Trump said he would block the opening of a new bridge connecting Detroit to Canada, officials said. NYT
Trump wrong about Gordie Howe Bridge: Last night, my wife and I had a quiet evening watching Olympic highlights, including some incredible Michigan skaters. The quiet was quickly shattered by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he might stop the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge. Since I played a significant role in the bridge project, my phone and email have been flooded with media inquiries. I have generally kept a low profile over the past few years, but this topic merits a few comments. Rick Snyder
+ Rick Snyder is a former governor of Michigan.
Trump’s crony Canadian bridgegate: He threatens to block Detroit’s new link to Canada, after Lutnick meets a competitor. WSJ-Editorial
USMCA: Trump is reportedly weighing exiting the North American trade pact he signed during his first term. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for review this year, and the US trade representative said the White House would hold separate talks with both countries.
Bloomberg: Trump privately weighs quitting USMCA trade pact he signed
+ President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada, and Mexico.
+ A White House official described Trump as the ultimate decision-maker and someone always seeking a better deal for the American people, while an official in US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office said the administration intended to keep Trump’s options open and negotiate to address issues that had been identified.
+ The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set for a mandatory review before a possible extension on July 1, a process that was once expected to be routine but has transformed into a contentious negotiation, with Trump demanding additional trade concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City.
Bloomberg: Drones, drugs, laser beams stir confusion over Texas skies
CNBC: FAA abruptly lifts order halting El Paso flights; Trump official says Defense Dept. disabled Mexican cartel drones
Daily Mail: Trump administration shoots down party balloon with laser after mistaking it for cartel drone in El Paso airspace chaos
+ @davidshepardson: Per Pentagon in 2024, drones crossing from Mexico "likely exceed 1,000 per month" -- so why would single Mexican drone prompt 10-day NOTAM to close El Paso
G+M: US airspace closure caused by Pentagon plan to test lasers targeting Mexican cartel drones, sources say
How OpenAI got comfortable with the Pentagon using ChatGPT: Semafor reports the chatbot will be offered through Genai dot mil, a new program the Pentagon launched last month. The tricky part for OpenAI was that the Pentagon was asking to use its technology for “all lawful uses,” meaning the company couldn’t impose any restrictions on what it or its employees view as acceptable implementation, either for moral or technical reasons.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Jobs up: US employers added more jobs in January than economists had expected.
WP: US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, the strongest gain in months
House votes to cancel Trump’s Canada tariffs: Six Republicans joined nearly all Democrats to end the national emergency President Donald Trump had declared to impose tariffs on imports from Canada. NYT
Bloomberg: US House defies Trump and votes to end his Canada tariffs
House blows open gates on tariff war: Per Punchbowl News, the House is now going to have open season on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump suffered a serious political blow Tuesday night when the House voted down a rule blocking members from offering resolutions to end the numerous tariffs the president has levied since returning to office. With that vote, members will have effectively unfettered ability to force up or down votes on the president’s global trade agenda. This will start immediately.
US House votes down tariff rule in rebuke to Trump: FT reports lawmakers reject proposal by Republican leadership that would have blocked votes to challenge president’s trade policy.
White House expects ‘substantial’ GOP defections on Canada tariff vote in House: Politico reports a White House official said that while the administration is talking to House offices Wednesday in an effort to defeat the measure, “our expectation is that the effort will not be successful.”
Trump wants to revive shipping. Investors are slow to back him. NYT reports a French logistics behemoth promised $20 billion for the United States, but a year into President Trump’s second term, only a fraction of the money has arrived.
Bloomberg: White House opens meeting to Democratic governors after snub
Trump allows Democratic governors at White House meeting after initial snub: WP reports the president had initially excluded Democrats from the traditionally bipartisan meeting. However, not all Democrats were invited to a separate dinner.
Trump’s grip on billions of taxpayer dollars loosened by courts: US judges have halted the administration’s cuts to funding in more than half of 167 spending fights in the past year. Bloomberg
National Guard troops were quietly withdrawn from some US cities: WP reports the deployments encountered repeated legal setbacks that stymied President Donald Trump’s desire for a show of force in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland, Oregon.
ICE: More than 1,400 employees at Salesforce are circulating a letter calling on CEO Marc Benioff to cancel all potential business with ICE. Employees at Google and Palantir have raised similar concerns, while French tech giant Capgemini announced it will sell its US subsidiary, which has a contract with ICE.
How Democrats aim to curb ICE without losing votes: Economist reports its brutal tactics are unpopular with Americans. But so is border insecurity.
Pam Bondi lashes out as lawmakers press her on Epstein, cases against Trump foes: WP reports the attorney general lobbed insults when lawmakers questioned her decisions and portrayed the Justice Department as unfairly maligned by Democrats and Trump critics.
Dems challenge Pam Bondi to address Epstein’s victims at House Judiciary hearing: Politico reports the DOJ’s handling of the Epstein files is becoming a central theme of Wednesday’s Oversight hearing.
Bondi dodges questions about Lutnick’s connections with Epstein: Politico reports the Commerce secretary has faced few recriminations from Trump world over the latest revelations about his connections to the late financier.
The White House is shrugging at Lutnick’s Epstein ties. His foes are too. Politico reports it’s the latest example of how little weight association with Epstein carries for high-profile figures in the Trump administration.
Bloomberg: Columbia admitted Epstein’s girlfriend via ‘irregular’ process
A law firm chair resigned after Epstein revelations. Here’s the reality. Brad Karp stepped down as chair of Paul, Weiss — but it was a soft landing. Politico
Behind Trump’s push to remake the Kennedy Center in his own image: The venerated cultural institution is facing falling ticket sales and canceled performances. WSJ
Trump decries a ‘nation of renters’ but his new policy promotes one: NYT reports President Trump’s recently announced executive order that would bar big investors from acquiring single-family homes includes an exemption that allows them to build homes for rent.
Johnson says he has urged Florida Republican to stay in Congress: Politico reports Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL) is retiring and is believed to be considering an early exit from the House.
WP: Virginia Democrats quickly approve proposed redistricting map
What will happen in the midterms? Freddy Gray
Democrats seek to counter Trump, boost 2028 profiles on European tour: WP reports Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ruben Gallego, and Gretchen Whitmer hope to reassure anxious European allies at the Munich Security Conference.
The Democrats aren’t built for this: They say they want to save democracy. First they’ll need to get out of their own way. Mark Leibovich
Republicans face uphill fight for NY governor: ‘We’re in bad shape’: NYT reports Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee against Gov. Kathy Hochul, has shown he can win in the suburbs. But political winds are blowing in his face.
Bloomberg: Trump orders Pentagon to buy coal power in boost to industry
+ President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal plants to power military operations.
+ Trump announced millions of dollars to upgrade existing coal facilities, including $175 million to fund upgrades at six coal plants.
+ Trump said his administration's actions would help boost coal power generation, delivering lower prices for consumers and ensuring industries critical to national security had steady power supplies.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
CNBC: Heineken to slash up to 6,000 jobs in AI ‘productivity savings’ amid slump in beer sales
+ Heineken’s CEO told CNBC on Wednesday that AI is “partly” behind the plan to cut up to 7% of its workforce.
+ The Dutch brewer’s beer volumes declined 2.4% over the course of 2025.
Mistral’s revenues soar over $400mn as Europe seeks AI independence: FT reports French start-up is riding a growing wave of demand from European businesses for alternatives to US tech.
Anthropic safety researcher quits, warning ‘world is in peril’: Semafor reports Mrinank Sharma said the safety team “constantly [faces] pressures to set aside what matters most,” citing concerns about bioterrorism and other risks.
‘The world is in peril’: AI researchers quit with public warnings: The Times reports two employees of OpenAI and Anthropic cited concerns about the future of humanity amid wider resignations in the industry.
Co-founders of Elon Musk’s xAI join exodus from start-up’s tech team: FT reports Jimmy Ba will be the sixth member of the founding team to depart.
Bill Ackman makes a big bet on Meta: WSJ reports Pershing Square has disclosed a roughly $2 billion position in Facebook’s parent.
Elliott takes stake in London Stock Exchange Owner: WSJ reports the hedge fund’s move comes as an AI threat looms over financial data providers.
Bloomberg: Apple’s latest attempt to launch new Siri runs into snags
+ Apple Inc.'s upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant has run into snags during testing, potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions.
+ The company is now working to spread the new capabilities out over future versions, possibly postponing at least some features until at least iOS 26.5 or iOS 27.
+ Testing has uncovered problems with the software, including issues with Siri properly processing queries, taking too long to handle requests, and accuracy issues, prompting the latest postponements.
Ping! The WhatsApps that should have been an email: If your instant message requires immediate attention, fine. But many don’t — they’re just inconsiderate. Tim Harford
Toyota to release 1st US-made EV this year: Nikkei reports the flagship Highlander to be 1 of 6 electric models for the American market.
The airlines fighting the expansion of Heathrow: The carriers say the £33bn plan for a new runway is unaffordable. The airport says the companies just want to keep out competitors. FT
Waldorf Astoria’s Chinese owners plan to sell NYC hotel after extravagant makeover: WSJ reports sale would be part of recent wave of Chinese property owners pulling out of US market.
Kraft Heinz’s CEO signed on for a breakup. Now he has a plan to keep it together. WSJ reports maker of ketchup and macaroni pauses plan to split into two; Steve Cahillane says new investments will help return to profitable growth.
*** Culture ***
Inside the Kennedy Center’s scorched-earth Washington National Opera split: How an opera leader plotted a path to leave the legendary arts center after the Trump takeover alienated audiences. WP
RIP: James Van Der Beek, the 'Dawson's Creek' star who later mocked his own hunky persona, has died at 48.
CNBC: Hamptons real estate prices hit record, with 2026 summer rentals going fast
What it was like to be a bush at Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl performance: The bushes on the field during the halftime show became a meme after the internet found out they were actually human performers. NBC
Sex, sex, and more sex: Emerald Fennell’s “Wuthering Heights”: An outlandish take on Emily Brontë’s novel highlights the adaptation conundrum. Economist
Don’t bother visiting Rome: If you must go, see the Pantheon and then get out. Ross Clark
*** Sport ***
US tourism is in a ‘Trump slump’ that could push World Cup fans away FC
+ The president’s foreign policy may undermine expectations for World Cup tourism in the US
+ With sky-high match ticket prices and the international reputation of the US as a tourism destination damaged, we believe it is unlikely that the tourism industry will recover in 2026.
2026 Winter Olympics: Milan becomes a city-sized theme park: The northern Italian city, renowned for its cultural wealth, has been abuzz with the excitement of the Olympics since February 6. On the streets, visitors seem far more drawn to the fever of the Games than to Milan's traditional landmarks. Le Monde
How the Olympics remade Montreal: Fifty years ago, Montreal hosted Canada’s first Olympics. A new exhibit shows how the Games pushed it to the brink. Jadine Ngan
+ @nytimes: Breaking News: Casey Wasserman will still lead the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles despite appearing in the Epstein files, organizers said.
US-UK soccer: At least 10 clubs outside the Premier League are now US-owned, alongside 11 in the top division itself.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 11
Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 11, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
Trump's "drop dead" economics: How Trump is dismantling the Global Great Lakes advantage
From my work desk, I look south across the Detroit River, and I can see Canada. Living in an American border town, I see opportunity and growth, but Team Trump sees fears and acts petulantly. We are witnessing one of the most consequential economic policy mistakes unfolding in real time.
President Trump's threat to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge—a $6.4 billion, "once-in-a-generation" infrastructure investment built to ease cargo flow between the United States and Canada- isn't just rhetoric. It's a window into how Team Trump's tariff strategy is systematically dismantling the competitive advantages that have made North American manufacturing viable in a globally contested economy.
Let's be clear about what's happening: A sitting US President is threatening to prevent the opening of infrastructure that the Canadian government financed, that US workers helped construct, that incorporates US steel, and that Michigan jointly owns.
The stated rationale? America needs Canada to ensure the US is "fully compensated" and treated with proper "respect." This rationale isn't policy. This is economic theater at the expense of real businesses operating in one of the world's most economically integrated regions. Trump repeatedly does what makes sense for special-interest politics, but rarely what makes sense for broader American economic interests.
The Global Great Lakes
The Detroit-Windsor corridor, which connects the state of Michigan and the province of Ontario, represents something exceptional in the North American economy.
The broader Great Lakes region generates between $6 trillion and $9.3 trillion in annual GDP, supporting 107 million residents and 51 million jobs across eight US states and two Canadian provinces.
If the Global Great Lakes region were an independent nation, it would rank as the world's third-largest economy. That's not hyperbole.
The supply chain architecture spanning this border wasn't built overnight or by accident. It evolved over decades of bilateral investment, technical integration, and mutual advantage. The automotive sector alone depends on seamless parts flow across the Ambassador Bridge daily - the span moves roughly $300 million in daily cross-border trade, yeah, daily.
Manufacturing facilities on both sides of the border are designed as integrated operations rather than isolated entities. This isn't just interdependence; it's engineered efficiency.
The Gordie Howe Bridge is needed to support this economic juggernaut, as the existing infrastructure has reached capacity. By all accounts, the opening of the Gordie Howe bridge will reduce congestion, lower logistics costs, improve competitiveness, and generate economic growth across both countries. Blocking it doesn't strengthen American economic security. It thwarts it.
The tariff escalation trap
Trump's bridge threat doesn't exist in isolation. It's part of a broader tariff escalation campaign. Team Trump's worldview has profound implications for how American businesses must restructure their operations and government engagement strategies.
Here's what the data tells us: Trade partners don't absorb tariffs passively. History demonstrates this with remarkable consistency. When one nation implements protectionist measures, others respond with countermeasures. This creates cascading economic effects that extend far beyond the initial policy announcement. We've seen this pattern repeat across multiple administrations and decades. The promised protection becomes economic friction.
For executives across Fortune 1,000 companies—particularly those in manufacturing, agriculture, automotive, and advanced industrial sectors—the bridge dispute signals a broader reality: The administration's negotiating style prioritizes political leverage over economic outcomes. That distinction matters enormously for strategic planning.
What this means in practice:
Supply chain vulnerability: Companies that optimized their North American supply chains around frictionless border crossing now face existential uncertainty. Just-in-time manufacturing—the competitive standard for decades—becomes riskier by the day. Tariffs increase component costs. Bridge delays increase logistics costs. Countermeasures from trading partners restrict market access. The cumulative effect is a margin compression across multiple business functions.
Interest rate pressures: In an environment of elevated tariffs and supply chain disruption, inflation risks increase. The Federal Reserve's response framework becomes less predictable. For capital-intensive industries that depend on favorable financing costs, this creates planning risks that weren't present eighteen months ago. Businesses can't reliably forecast borrowing costs or capital deployment timelines.
Government relationship architecture: The bridge dispute reveals a critical point: Traditional, play-it-safe, wait-it-out approaches to government relations are woefully inadequate in this environment. When policy decisions are driven by personal dynamics rather than economic analysis, companies need different engagement strategies. Multi-front, high-low-stakeholder communication is a must-have.
What must business leaders do now?
This moment demands a systematic strategic response, not reactive commentary.
First, ruthlessly map your tariff exposure. Identify which supply chains face tariff vulnerability, which customer bases face margin pressure, and which markets face countermeasure risk. This isn't a theoretical exercise. This is operational survival planning.
Second, evaluate supply chain restructuring timelines. Some companies will need to build redundancy into their North American operations. Others will explore production relocation. Still others will adjust product mix or customer segmentation. These aren't quick decisions. They require serious capital allocation, technical evaluation, and international coordination. Start now.
Third, develop government engagement strategies that operate across multiple jurisdictions and stakeholder groups. The bridge dispute involves Canadian provincial governments, US state officials, business chambers, labor unions, and transportation authorities. They all made compelling economic arguments. Yet Team Trump acts on a mindset that is devoid of sound judgment - we are experiencing policy by personality. This suggests that traditional lobbying and government relations approaches are insufficient. Companies need more sophisticated frameworks to understand and influence policy formation in an era of persistent economic nationalism.
Fourth, prepare your investor and board communications now. Tariff policies, supply chain disruption, and interest rate uncertainty all affect earnings outlooks and capital deployment timelines. Transparent communication about these risks—and your company's strategic response—builds confidence with institutional investors and boards of directors.
Caracal Global's global business know-how
This environment is precisely why geopolitical business communications have shifted from a sideshow concern to an operational necessity.
Companies operating in North America's integrated economy now operate at the intersection of globalization, domestic politics, and economic policy. That intersection is where uncertainty originates. It's also where strategic advantage emerges for companies that understand it clearly.
Caracal Global specializes in this exact territory. We work with senior executives, board members, and CEOs responsible for geopolitics, corporate affairs, public affairs, stakeholder engagement, and communications. Our clients include Fortune 1,000 companies navigating tariff volatility, supply chain disruption, and government engagement challenges—rely on us to translate geopolitical developments into actionable business strategy.
A Michigan-born geopolitical strategist leads Caracal Global, and the firm specializes in Globalization + American Politics. Caracal Global provides intelligence, strategy, and communications services to clients navigating today's interconnected business environment. Our leadership brings direct experience in US-China commercial relations, national political campaigns, NATO engagement, the energy and automotive sectors, and media dynamics. We understand how policy is formed, how stakeholders mobilize, and how business communications influence outcomes.
The Gordie Howe Bridge dispute is instructive. It demonstrates how policy decisions that appear economically irrational often carry profound political logic. Understanding that distinction—and translating it into strategic business response—is what we do.
Businesses in the Global Great Lakes and across North America shouldn't simply react to tariff policy or threats to halt border crossings. They should engage with it strategically, clearly, and with sophistication, communicating their economic impact and competitive interests to multiple stakeholder groups.
The path forward
Windsor's Mayor Drew Dilkels described the Gordie Howe Bridge as an event that, "in normal times," would be celebrated by leaders of both countries. He's right. The bridge represents exactly what successful North American economic policy should produce: infrastructure that strengthens regional competitiveness, creates jobs across borders, and facilitates commerce.
The blocking threat is precisely what a failed policy produces: uncertainty, economic friction, and damaged confidence.
For business leaders across the Global Great Lakes and beyond, the moment demands clarity. Tariff policies will continue escalating. Supply chains will require restructuring. Interest rates will remain elevated. Trump will act petulantly. Government relationships will become more needed, not less.
Companies that respond strategically by mapping exposure, restructuring operations, engaging stakeholders, and communicating high-low will navigate this environment successfully. Those who wait for clarity or assume past patterns will persist will find themselves dangerously exposed.
The bridge will likely open regardless of Team Trump's rhetoric. But the principle it represents — a global business environment of integrated, border-spanning economic cooperation — faces a genuine threat. Companies should act accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
‘Now we’re in a power struggle’: Europe’s resentment grows over Trump’s newest provocations: Politico reports President Trump has backed off his threats toward Denmark's territorial sovereignty, but he and aides have continued to irritate much of Europe.
France launches Orion 26, its biggest military drill since the Cold War: Euronews reports France began its largest military exercise since the Cold War on Sunday, deploying 12,500 troops in a three-month drill designed to prepare for high-intensity warfare in Europe. The Orion 26 exercise, which runs until 30 April, will involve 25 ships, including the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, 140 aircraft, 1,200 drones, and forces from 24 countries.
Finland’s Stubb sees US seeking transatlantic reset in Munich: Bloomberg reports Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said he expects the US will use the Munich Security Conference this week as an opportunity to reset the strained transatlantic relationship. “I hope the Munich conference will help improve relations, and I believe the United States will come with that mindset,” Stubb told reporters in Helsinki on Tuesday.
+ Vice President JD Vance will forgo attending the Munich Security Conference this year. Vance's decision comes one year after he delivered a combative speech at the summit, criticizing European leaders for regulating online speech and accusing them of suppressing conservative voices.
Trump’s new start on nuclear weapons: The collapse of 1980s treaties shows the limits of arms control. WSJ-Editorial
Meloni tightens security policy as political tensions grip Italy: Le Monde reports the heavy atmosphere since the summer of 2025 has been exacerbated by footage of a police officer being violently assaulted by protesters in Turin at the end of January.
Emmanuel Macron: 'Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds': Le Monde reports two days ahead of a meeting of European Union heads of state and government in Brussels, the French president calls on the 27 member states, in an interview with Le Monde and several other European newspapers, to make joint investments in protecting the environment, as well.
AFP: Macron visits steel mill as ArcelorMital confirms €1.3 bn low-carbon furnace project
US remains top export market for French wines and spirits, despite 21% drop: Le Monde reports the French Federation of Wine and Spirits Exporters reported that exports of wine, champagne, and cognac fell by 8% in value year-on-year in 2025, to €14.3 billion.
Starmer too ‘weak’ to sack Streeting, prime minister’s allies admit: FT reports health secretary forced to put ambitions on hold as uneasy truce settles over Labour ahead of electoral tests.
Why MAGA loathes London: Trump and his supporters see the UK capital as the symbol of a Europe facing ‘civilisational erasure.’ Edward Luce
Investigation into Mandelson’s Epstein links will go back to Blair era: The Times reports UK civil servants will trawl records going back more than 25 years for evidence of inappropriate contact between the disgraced peer and Jeffrey Epstein.
King Charles tries to limit the fallout from Andrew’s Epstein mess: How much did palace servants know and when did they know it? Economist
Moscow restricts Telegram as it pushes rival state-backed messaging app: Le Monde reports that, on February 9, Russian users of the messaging and calling app Telegram began reporting access issues. Russian authorities have denounced Telegram for allegedly failing to take action against its use for 'criminal and terrorist purposes.'
The $108 oil war: Can the Middle East crash the world economy? Bloomberg
US weighs seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil to pressure Tehran: WSJ reports, but using the same strategy the White House directed at Venezuela is seen as likely to spark retaliation by Tehran and a surge in oil prices.
WP: Trump mulls second aircraft carrier off Iran, as Netanyahu flies to DC for talks
The Times: Trump weighs bolstering ‘armada’ near Iran before Netanyahu visit
Why Saudis feel squeezed even as the economy booms: Young people grousing about service jobs and high rents sound like their peers in the West. Economist
Indonesia prepares to deploy thousands of troops to Gaza: FT reports Jakarta makes biggest commitment yet to Donald Trump’s international peacekeeping force.
Why are Taiwan's Nvidia suppliers investing billions in the US? Jensen Huang lauds island's supply chain, but AI boom and geopolitics spur American expansions. Nikkei
US to send 200 troops to help Nigeria fight Islamist insurgents: WSJ reports Americans will train local forces, but won’t see combat, officials say.
Colombian senator kidnapped, president targeted in election run-up: AFP reports a Colombian senator was kidnapped and held hostage for hours Tuesday as the country's president reported an attempt on his own life in the run-up to elections that observers have warned could be marred by violence.
Amid US pressure, Nicaragua blocks a once-popular route from Cuba: NYT reports the Trump administration has criticized Nicaragua for serving as an illegal immigration pathway to the United States.
Bloomberg: Cuba is in an energy crisis with no oil imports for the first time in a decade
Life in Cuba is grinding to a halt under the US oil blockade: WSJ reports the island is in crisis as airlines cancel flights, hotels close, and authorities furlough workers.
No oil, no lights, few flights. Cuba is in a very dark place: The Times reports Trump believes the island will be the next to fall to American dominance — but it is not clear just how the blockade will lead to regime change.
WestJet, Air Transat join Air Canada in cancelling flights to Cuba: G+M reports both airlines will send empty planes to the island to bring home customers in the coming days.
Bloomberg: JD Vance removes Armenian ‘genocide’ post after visit to memorial
+ Vice President JD Vance’s office said a now-deleted post that recognized the 1915 mass killings of Armenians as a genocide was sent in error.
+ The post was about a wreath-laying ceremony at the Armenian Genocide memorial that Vance and the second lady attended during a trip to Armenia.
+ A White House Press Secretary said “there’s been no change of policy at this time” regarding the recognition of the conflict as genocide.
Vance acknowledges Armenian genocide, then deletes post, igniting outrage: WSJ reports that by deleting the social-media post, Vice President JD Vance upset Armenians after a historic visit.
Chinese cars are coming to the US — like it or not: In a world being conquered by China’s auto companies, one redoubt stands out: The US. It deters Chinese companies with sky-high tariffs and a ban on auto software systems developed or controlled by them. It is also the biggest auto market in the world by revenue and one of the most profitable — China’s auto giants would love to find a way in. Liam Denning
Detroit News: President Trump threatens to block Gordie Howe International Bridge from opening
Trump threatens to block opening of bridge between US and Canada: WP reports as the Gordie Howe Bridge nears completion, Trump, in his latest salvo against Canada, suggested he would “not allow” it to open, saying Canada had treated the US “very unfairly.”
BBC: Trump threatens to block opening of US-Canada bridge
Trump threatens to block opening of new bridge to Canada: NYT reports the Gordie Howe International Bridge, expected to open early this year, was built by Canada to ease cargo transport between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario.
Trump threatens to block opening of bridge between US and Canada: As the bridge connecting Michigan and Ontario nears completion, the president suggested he wouldn’t allow it to open, saying Canada had treated the US “very unfairly.” WP
Trump threatens to block opening of new bridge between Detroit and Canada: WSJ reports Canada funded the Gordie Howe International Bridge, which is nearly complete.
Canada’s Carney tries to resolve Trump demands over new bridge: WSJ reports the US president has threatened hold up the Gordie Howe International Bridge between Michigan and Ontario, which is set to open this year.
Carney tells Trump Canada paid full cost of building Gordie Howe bridge: G+M reports the prime minister points out the bridge’s ownership is shared between the state of Michigan and Canada.
Toronto Star: Mark Carney says Donald Trump bridge threat will be ‘settled’ following call with US president
Trump’s bridge threat heralds pain and turmoil for USMCA talks Lawrence Herman
Trump’s gunboat diplomacy hands China a $55 trillion economic edge: Donald Trump has anchored his security initiatives in the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. Asia remains a far more valuable sphere of influence. Bloomberg
The Mirror: Trump's tariffs cost the average American household $1,000 last year
+ New analysis shows Trump’s tariffs have pushed up US living costs, with consumers bearing most of the burden as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of the policy.
Ford discloses additional $900 million tariff hit: WSJ reports the Detroit automaker reported its largest-ever quarterly loss on EV-related charges.
AFP: Ford results dented by tariffs, supplier outage
House Republicans again seek to stop time to avoid vote on Trump’s tariffs: For the third time this Congress, GOP leaders are seeking to effectively nullify a law that requires a quick House vote on a measure demanding an end to President Trump’s tariffs. NYT
Rule vote postponed amid tariff backlash: Politico reports GOP leaders face significant internal opposition from a band of tariff-skeptical Republicans.
Who wrangled the best trade deal from Donald Trump? The agreements look one-sided. Their consequences may not be. Economist
$2 trillion: The amount the global crypto market has shed in value since hitting its peak last October.
US slips to 29th place in global corruption perception index: UPI reports that the United States is at its worst ranking ever on a global corruption perception list released Tuesday, which measures how independent experts and businesspeople perceive countries' corruption. The country slipped one step to 29th place among 182 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. It's the lowest rank for the United States since the index changed its methodology in 2012.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
American optimism slumps to record low: The percentage of US adults who anticipate a high-quality life in five years declined to 59.2% in 2025, the lowest level since measurement began nearly two decades ago. Since 2020, future life ratings have declined by 9.1 percentage points, projecting an estimated 24.5 million fewer people who are optimistic about the future now than then. Most of that decline occurred between 2021 and 2023, but the ratings dropped 3.5 points between 2024 and 2025. Gallup
Ahead of jobs report, White House seeks to downplay any slowdown: NYT reports President Trump’s top aides have argued in recent days that the economy is strong, even if new data on Wednesday show sluggish hiring.
Even Trump can’t go back to the future: To MAGA, the 1950s were a better time. But the White House can’t bring it back. William A. Galston
Howard Lutnick says he visited Jeffrey Epstein’s island in 2012: FT reports US commerce secretary grilled in Congress over his relationship with late sex offender.
Lutnick says he visited Epstein’s private island with his wife and children: WSJ reports Trump’s commerce secretary appeared to contradict previous comments that he avoided the sex offender after visiting his New York home in 2005.
Politico: Howard Lutnick faces bipartisan calls to resign over latest Epstein revelations
The Epstein files are creating headaches for the Sununus and Shaheens in New Hampshire: Politico reports the founder of Segway has longstanding ties with the Sununu and Shaheen families — and, we now know, Jeffrey Epstein.
Epstein directed aide to obtain hidden video cameras: NYT reports: “I’m installing them into Kleenex boxes now,” the aide replied in the 2014 email exchange.
How Jeffrey Epstein — and an NYC dentist — got his girlfriend into Columbia: Bloomberg reports using donations and his network of contacts, the disgraced financier touted and sought influence at many top educational institutions across the US.
Bloomberg: Tesla’s Kimbal Musk linked to Epstein’s ‘girls’ in latest emails
How ICE defies judges’ orders to release detainees, step by step: A Politico review of hundreds of cases brought by ICE detainees shows a pattern of noncompliance that has frustrated judges across the country.
Trump to repeal landmark climate finding in huge regulatory rollback: WSJ reports move would reverse legal determination that greenhouse gases threaten public health.
US Labor Board gives up oversight of SpaceX in victory for Musk: Bloomberg reports agency drops yearslong case over firing of Musk critics.
‘He was the antidote’: Samuel Alito speaks out on Antonin Scalia and the drafting of Dobbs: In an exclusive interview, the Supreme Court justice remembers a friend and conservative icon’s legacy. Politico
NYT: Republican cash edge threatens to swamp Democrats in the midterms
+ “Donald Trump has 99 problems going into the midterms. But money ain’t one.” -- Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson, quoted by the New York Times.
Republicans are pushing to drastically change the way you cast ballots: WP reports explaining the SAVE Act, which Republicans in Congress are voting on this week.
ME-SEN: Republican Sen. Susan Collins today formally announced her reelection bid.
TX-SEN: Turning Point Action, the political arm of Turning Point USA, has endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in his bid to unseat longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a race that could determine whether the GOP maintains its Senate majority.
Democrats gain an edge as poll show doubts on Trump energy strategy: Politico reports energy affordability is expected to play a role in the midterm elections this year.
The NY congressional race on the frontlines of an AI industry civil war: Top artificial intelligence executives are spending big against Democratic House candidate Alex Bores. But his campaign is also raking in donations from AI experts and tech employees. Politico
Georgia Republicans allow RNC to break party neutrality to support Burt Jones: Politico reports that any move to intervene in Georgia could reshape a crowded race for an open governor’s seat in a premier battleground state.
Eric Swalwell (D) picks up steam in California gov's race, adds Schiff endorsement: Politico reports the former House colleagues built their profiles working together on impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump.
Conservative media titan set to back Ted Cruz 2028 presidential campaign in shock blow to JD Vance: Daily Mail reports Senator Ted Cruz (TX-R) told donors that he expects Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy to back his 2028 presidential bid, the Daily Mail can reveal, handing the Texan a significant conservative megaphone in his likely challenge to Vice President JD Vance.
The left needs a sharper AI politics Ross Douthat
The US is awash in natural gas, but American factories still can’t get enough: Pipelines curtailed or otherwise restricted the flow of gas to manufacturers more than 40 times last year, a trade group says. WSJ
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
CNBC: Disappointing holiday season: December retail sales were flat, falling well short of estimate
+ Retail sales were flat in December following a 0.6% increase in November. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 0.4%.
+ On an annual basis, sales rose 2.4%, failing to keep up with inflation, as the consumer price index for December posted a 2.7% increase.
Paramount Skydance Corp. made enhancements to its hostile offer for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., addressing some of the company’s concerns in an effort to thwart a rival deal with Netflix Inc.
TSMC turns Japan into 3rd advanced chip base as AI demand soars: Nikkei reports leading contract chipmaker unable to keep pace using Taiwan, US plants alone.
Inside OpenAI’s decision to kill the AI model that people loved too much: WSJ reports ChatGPT’s 4o model was beloved by many users, but controversial for its sycophancy and real-world harms linked to some conversations.
Google turns to century-long debt to build AI: AFP reports Google-parent Alphabet will issue bonds maturing in 100 years as it continues to invest massively in infrastructure for artificial intelligence.
Bloomberg: Jack Ma-backed Ant bets on AI health in $69 billion sector race
+ Ant Group Co. is betting on health care powered by artificial intelligence to fuel its next phase of growth, after reining in its ambitions following a derailed initial public offering.
+ The company plans to reach most of China's people with its AI-powered health services within three years, and has elevated its health unit to the same level as operations, including Alipay and its lending businesses.
+ Ant's health care strategy includes AI Doctor Agents, digital avatars trained by physicians to handle routine patient inquiries, and an AI health app called AQ that aggregates health data and answers general questions.
AI is giving you a personalized internet, but you have no say in it: The relentless addition of artificial intelligence in popular apps raises questions about what’s at stake. The answer: the future of the internet and its lifeblood, digital advertising. NYT
Daniel Ek and Peter Thiel-backed start-ups win German military drone contracts: FT reports Helsing and Stark contracts to supply unmanned weapons to Bundeswehr worth up to €4.3bn in total.
Elon Musk’s go-to banker is back in action for the SpaceX IPO: WSJ reports Michael Grimes is leaving government to return to Morgan Stanley and work on possibly the biggest initial public offering ever.
‘The race is on’: Will Elon Musk be the first to put a data centre in space? Tech billionaire’s desire to put computer infrastructure into orbit is central to $1.25tn plan to merge SpaceX with xAI. FT
Don’t let Elon Musk monopolize space compute: A case for more antitrust enforcement. Matthew Yglesias
Ford says EV woes will continue to plague company despite writedown: FT reports the carmaker posts full-year net loss of $8.2bn owing to $19.5bn charge it disclosed last month.
The booming business of luxury grocery stores: A new crop of gourmet grocers has hit the city, drawing lines of trendy TikTokers, MAHA-curious health fiends, and Instacart devotees who want to pop in for a treat. WSJ
What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy: Restaurants have raised prices to offset rising labour and ingredient costs, leading low-income customers to visit less often. FT
WSJ: Red Lobster CEO says seafood chain needs to get smaller
Britney Spears sells rights to her music catalog: US media: AFP reports Britney Spears has become the latest musician to sell the rights to her catalog that includes hits like "...Baby One More Time" and "Oops!...I Did It Again," US media reported Tuesday.
Become an octopus organization: How your company can adapt to a complex world. Jana Werner + Phil Le-Brun
*** Culture ***
40m: The number of Spanish speakers in America, making it the fifth-biggest Hispanophone country in the world.
*** Sport ***
Justin Verlander is back where it all began, signing a 1-year deal with the Detroit Tigers.
Mikaela Shiffrin’s Olympic nightmare continues with slalom collapse: WSJ handed the chance to win a gold medal in the team combined event, the American delivered one of the worst slalom races of her career, and finished off the podium.
What’s up with Mikaela Shiffrin? A startlingly poor slalom costs her team a medal. WP reports that after a rough performance four years ago in the Olympics, Shiffrin can’t close in the new team combined competition. Paula Moltzan and Jackie Wiles take bronze.
Toronto Star: US blows out Canada in women’s hockey in preliminary round win
1,300: The pounds of pasta being served, each day, to Olympic athletes at cafeterias at the Winter Games in Italy.
How one prediction-market trader played the Super Bowl—and lost $100,000: For Liam Kane and others like him, the NFL title game was an opportunity to bet against new and often inexperienced bettors. WSJ
Bloomberg: Super Bowl gives prediction bets record $1.2 billion trading day
+ Kalshi Inc. said it registered over $1 billion in trades related to the Super Bowl, a record surge that underscored the threat that booming prediction markets pose to traditional gambling companies.
+ The New York-based startup hosted $871 million in trading on Sunday alone, topping its previous busiest single day by 60%, according to estimates by Bank of America Corp.
+ Analysts have grown increasingly bearish on gambling companies in recent months as prediction markets have presented a formidable competitive threat much more quickly than many anticipated.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 10
Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 10, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Ross Rant ***
Why Fortune 1,000 companies need a communications doctrine now
You wouldn't navigate tariff wars without a supply chain strategy or manage rising interest rates without a capital allocation framework. Yet many Fortune 1,000 companies approach geopolitical communications reactively, responding to headlines rather than operating from a coherent doctrine. That's a mistake with real consequences.
A communications doctrine is your north star.
It's a foundational framework that guides everything you say, how you say it, and when you say it. It transforms your communications from scattered responses into a unified strategy aligned with business objectives. In today's fractured geopolitical environment—where US-China tensions reshape supply chains, the breakdown of the Transatlantic relationship, tariffs that are creating cascading costs, and stakeholder expectations that shift overnight—having a doctrine isn't optional. It's an operational necessity.
Consider what's happening now.
Businesses face an endless cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that demand coordination across government affairs, investor relations, and media strategy. Supply chains are being rebuilt around geopolitical risk, not just cost optimization. Interest rates remain elevated, constraining capital while stakeholders demand clearer communication about these headwinds. Without a unified communications doctrine, you're exposing yourself to exactly what happened with New Coke: brilliant execution of the wrong strategy.
A proper doctrine requires hard work. It demands intelligence gathering across geopolitical developments that affect your business. It requires analyzing past communications victories and failures to inform future tactics. It requires short- and long-term forecasting of how political shifts, regulatory changes, and global tensions will reshape your operating environment. Most critically, it requires discipline.
Your doctrine will be more "no" than "yes."
Your doctrine should push back against the instinct to respond to every crisis. It will eliminate scattered messaging across regions and stakeholders. It will battle the institutional tendency to default to traditional corporate-speak when markets demand clarity about geopolitical risk. This means involving stakeholders, be it boards, executives, government relations teams, investor relations, and communications, in doctrine development. Alignment is harder than reaction, but infinitely more valuable.
The stakes are measurable. Companies with coherent geopolitical communications doctrines navigate tariff cycles more effectively. They secure stakeholder support in times of need. They maintain credibility when discussing the impact of interest rates and capital deployment. They don't look blindsided by predictable geopolitical shifts because their doctrine has prepared them to anticipate and navigate them.
For senior executives navigating tariffs, supply chains, and geopolitical complexity, Caracal Global specializes in the exact challenge you're facing. As a geopolitical business communications firm with experience in US-China relations and political campaigns, Caracal Global helps Fortune 1,000 leaders develop intelligence-driven communications strategies at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.
Building doctrine takes time. Caracal Global can help.
The payoff is straightforward: companies with established communications doctrines achieve their geopolitical business objectives. Those without one? They chase reactions, miss opportunities, and damage stakeholder relationships when communications feel inconsistent or unprepared.
The question isn't whether to invest in a communications doctrine. It's whether you can afford not to.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Israel assumes broad new powers in the West Bank: WSJ reports a new measure approved by the security cabinet makes it easier for Israelis to buy land in territory that would be at the heart of any Palestinian state.
AP: Israel says Netanyahu will meet with Trump on Wednesday about Iran talks
Bloomberg: Iran hardens crackdown on political dissidents after US talks
Is Macron's attack on video games targeting the wrong enemy? President Emmanuel Macron, who believes that violent video games condition young people, has started a commission to 'scientifically measure their effect' on children. Yet hundreds of studies on the topic have established no link between violence and playing video games. Le Monde
Keir Starmer’s inconvenient truth: Labour must stop believing things because they are politically helpful and engage with the world as it really is. Stephen Bush
Bloomberg: Starmer catches a break as UK cabinet gives show of support
Starmer lives to fight another day after cabinet rally: The Times reports PM insists he won’t walk away and ministers send a wave of supportive messages after Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, called for him to resign.
Labour’s Scottish leader tells Starmer to quit: Politico reports Anas Sarwar was once a close ally of the embattled PM. His intervention Monday was followed by a show of support from Starmer’s allies.
Starmer is in danger of becoming first leader to fall in Epstein scandal: WSJ reports fallout has hit an already unpopular British leader.
Why Sir Keir Starmer remains on the brink: It is not just about Peter Mandelson. Economist
Prince and Princess of Wales ‘deeply concerned’ as Epstein files roil UK: WP reports the latest tranche of Epstein files put added scrutiny on some of Britain’s elite, including Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson, the former US ambassador.
Investment giant KKR ditches Mandelson lobbying firm: KKR, a shareholder in companies such as Travelopia and Flora Food Group, has cut ties with Global Counsel following new revelations about Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, Sky News learns.
Bloomberg: UK tightens security after review reveals scale of budget breach
Ukraine is leaning into its Christianity as it presses its case in Washington, saying common bonds of faith mean the two nations should strengthen their ties.
Ukraine seeks a war plan beyond killing as many Russian soldiers as possible: WSJ reports Russia’s grinding, slow-motion advance weakening Kyiv’s hand at the negotiating table.
Russia’s sabotage campaign is becoming bolder: Hacks against Polish energy plants suggest the FSB is involved. Economist
Europe’s big week of crisis diplomacy: The very future of the continent will be up for debate in a packed few days of top-level talks. Politico
Trump is a global ‘wrecking ball,’ European security experts say: The organizers of the Munich Security Conference, Europe’s main defense-related forum, said in a report that President Trump is helping destroy the postwar international order. NYT
‘It feels like a betrayal.’ Germany’s painful estrangement from the US: The unravelling of transatlantic ties has shocked a country that had an emotional attachment to the relationship. FT
Hong Kong court sentences Jimmy Lai to 20 years: NYT reports the media tycoon, a Chinese-born British citizen, had been a persistent critic of Beijing. The sentence is the harshest penalty so far under a national security law.
Trump-Xi summit set for first week of April: Politico reports the summit could be the first of four meetings this year between the two leaders.
Bloomberg: China Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasuries
China once stole foreign ideas. Now it wants to protect its own: The country’s courts are inundated with intellectual-property cases. Economist
Will Japan’s first female PM court controversy after landslide win? Sanae Takaichi secured 316 seats for her Liberal Democratic Party in largest parliamentary majority since the Second World War. The Times
Japan's Sanae Takaichi emboldened by landslide victory in snap elections: Le Monde reports the ultra-nationalist's Liberal Democratic Party secured an overwhelming majority in Sunday's elections. The new balance of power is expected to allow the prime minister, backed during her campaign by US President Donald Trump, to accelerate the implementation of her hard-line agenda.
How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate: A remarkable election victory that will reshape Japanese politics for years to come. Economist
Investors give an exuberant welcome to Takaichi’s big win in Japan: NYT reports stocks climbed on Monday as investors cheered a result seen as a mandate for the prime minister’s high-spending economic agenda.
Trump's support for Japan's Takaichi masks fury over investment delays: Nikkei reports US leader suspects foot-dragging, but Tokyo wants to be first to announce major project.
Sanae Takaichi targets changes to Japan’s constitution after landslide election win: Prime minister says she feels ‘heavy responsibility’ to strengthen country. FT
Takaichi’s victory holds a foreign-policy lesson for the US Chris Estep
Bangladesh struck a trade deal with America, setting a 19% tariff on most exports.
Singapore clocks 5% GDP growth in 2025 as AI challenge rises: Nikkei reports manufacturing drives expansion as city-state grapples with tech disruptions.
Chinese companies overtake US in Singapore investment: Businesses have been using city-state to avoid geopolitical scrutiny and expand abroad. FT
Eritrea responded to Ethiopia after it said that Eritrea was occupying parts of Ethiopia and supporting armed groups in the country, calling the accusations “patently false and fabricated.”
One of Dubai’s most powerful executives discussed sex, business with Epstein: Emails show Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem corresponded with the disgraced financier for more than a decade after Epstein was first jailed in 2008 for procuring a minor for prostitution. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Brazil moves to ban teen access to online gambling, porn content
+ Brazil's government is preparing rules to ban youth access to gambling, pornography and similar content online by requiring age-verification measures.
+ The rules would apply to app stores, platforms and websites that include advertising for certain content, and would require them to verify the ages of users.
+ The decree is part of a new law set to take effect in March that seeks to protect Brazilian minors by restricting youth access to content that is illegal or considered harmful.
Bloomberg: Cuba isn't getting oil imports from anyone for the first time in a decade
+ Mexico's decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba has delivered a fresh blow to the fuel-starved country, with the island logging its first month without oil imports in a decade.
+ Oil imports to the island reached zero in January for the first time since 2015, according to data from shipping reports and Kpler Ltd, due to a US naval blockade and threat to impose tariffs.
+ Cuba is facing shortages of everything, from cooking gas, to water and electricity, with multi-hour lines at gas stations and at least two large beach resorts shutting down due to gasoline shortages.
Air Canada Cancels Flights as Cuba Runs Out of Jet Fuel: NYT reports the Trump administration’s crackdown on oil shipments to Cuba is beginning to wreak havoc on the Caribbean island’s travel industry.
Air Canada suspends flights to Cuba amid fuel shortage: G+M reports airline says it will fly home the 3,000 customers on the island, but has ceased all southbound service.
Cuba runs out of jet fuel as Donald Trump squeezes oil supplies: FT reports Air Canada is first major airline to suspend flights to the island over inability to refuel planes.
G+M: German minister says auto industry in talks to expand footprint in Canada
Bloomberg: Trump threatens to block Detroit-Canada bridge in new row
+ “I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve,” Trump said on social media Monday. “We will start negotiations, IMMEDIATELY. With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset,” he added.
US plans Big Tech carve-out from next wave of chip tariffs: Exemptions would be based on chipmaker TSMC’s US investment commitments, officials say. FT
US seizes tanker in Indian Ocean after monthlong chase from Caribbean: WSJ reports sanctioned ship was eighth vessel apprehended by US in connection with quasi-blockade of Venezuela’s oil industry.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright to brief senators on Venezuela energy issues: Politico reports members of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee will receive a classified briefing on Tuesday.
Trump turns to US military leaders for diplomatic efforts on Iran and Ukraine: AP reports Trump has taken the unusual step of tapping military leaders for high-level diplomacy, sending the top US commander in the Middle East to talks over Iran’s nuclear program and positioning the Army secretary as a key negotiator on ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
US embassy in London denies visas to executives over minor offences: FT reports immigration lawyers say top-level corporate figures and tech leaders among those barred from visiting America.
How US special forces are training in an Arctic warfare bootcamp: WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen is the first civilian to take part in this grueling training with a unit of American Green Berets. WSJ
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat: Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable. Florian Krampe
+ The writer is the director of the climate change and risk programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Newly unbound, Trump weighs more nuclear arms and underground tests: NYT reports it remains to be seen whether the three big nuclear powers are headed into a new arms race, or whether President Trump is trying to spur negotiations on a new accord now that a last Cold War treaty has expired.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
NY Mag: Ghislaine Maxwell: I’ll talk for a pardon
Politico: Ghislaine Maxwell pleads the Fifth in House Oversight Epstein investigation
Politico: Howard Lutnick faces bipartisan calls to resign over latest Epstein revelations
US lawmakers call on Howard Lutnick to step down over ties to Epstein: FT reports Democrats and Republicans say commerce secretary has not been honest about his ties with the late sex offender.
Jeffrey Epstein paid Les Wexner $100mn after retail billionaire accused him of theft: FT reports private settlement sought to avoid ‘unnecessary public attention’, prosecutors’ report said.
AP: Masks emerge as symbol of Trump’s ICE crackdown and a flashpoint in Congress
Judge strikes down California’s ban on masks for federal agents: NYT reports the state can require federal agents to display identification, the judge said. The Trump administration had asked the court to block both laws, which were designed to help identify federal agents.
Immigration raids in South Texas are starting to hit the economy: Trade groups are raising alarms about aggressive immigration enforcement hurting businesses in the region. WP
Legality of Trump’s $400M in private funding for White House ballroom at issue: WP reports a federal judge weighing whether the project may proceed has focused on whether the administration can use private donations to bypass congressional approval.
Gateway funding doesn’t have to be immediately restored, judge says: NYT reports a federal judge had ordered the funding for a $16 billion tunnel project restored last week, but on Monday granted a temporary stay after the federal government appealed her decision.
Trump set off a surge of AI in the federal government. See what happened. The White House is accelerating AI adoption across government, embedding the technology in policing, health care, defense, and science. WP
A post-Trump restoration is still possible: His presidency may eventually be seen as an aberration rather than a permanent shift. Gideon Rachman
DOJ seeks to undo Bannon’s conviction for defying Jan. 6 subpoena: WP reports Jeanine Pirro, the US attorney for DC, said a judge should dismiss Stephen K. Bannon indictment over defying a Jan. 6 subpoena “in the interests of justice.”
Trump’s ‘stop the steal’ lawyer probing 2020 election fraud has access to sensitive US intel: Politico reports top US intelligence agencies are cooperating with Kurt Olsen, who worked with Trump to undermine the results of the 2020 election.
Trump leaves Republicans guessing on midterms plans as outlook darkens: WP reports the president is said to be eager to increase his involvement, but on some days sounds detached and noncommittal.
Texas Senate race could be a match for the ages Ed Kilgore
New York City Republicans risk losing lone GOP voice in Congress: Bloomberg reports Staten Island’s status as a Republican stronghold in a city dominated by Democrats is under threat amid a Congressional redistricting fight.
Jerrold Nadler has picked a successor. Will that matter to voters? WP reports the retiring congressman hopes his endorsement will carry Assemblyman Micah Lasher past a crowded primary field, including a Kennedy.
‘Vance is handcuffed’: The tech fight bedeviling 2028 Republicans: Republicans’ evolving stances on AI are offering a preview of the post-Trump debates within the party. Politico
‘Devastated and exhausted’: Washington Post looks to life after Will Lewis: The newspaper’s staff welcome chief executive’s departure but fear what may come next after drastic job cuts. FT
Listening to Joe Rogan: How a gift for shooting the shit turned into an online empire—and a political force. David Remnick
THR: Amazon MGM goes on offense as ‘Melania’ gets sacked at Super Bowl box office
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
America must follow China in treating data as an asset: US accounting principles fail to recognise its enormous economic value. Mike Kuiken
Meta, YouTube design apps to addict kids, jury hears as landmark trial begins: Reuters reports Meta Platforms and YouTube deliberately designed products they knew would addict children, a lawyer for a woman suing the two companies told jurors in California on Monday at a trial that will test whether Big Tech platforms can be held liable for their app design.
Meta and YouTube created ‘digital casinos,’ lawyers argue in landmark trial: NYT reports opening statements began in a trial claiming social media companies design addictive products that cause personal injury.
Meet the one woman Anthropic trusts to teach AI morals: The tech company has tasked Amanda Askell with giving its chatbot, Claude, a sense of right and wrong. WSJ
Insurance broker stocks sink as AI app sparks disruption fears: Bloomberg reports US insurance broker stocks were pummeled Monday as the launch of an artificial intelligence tool from privately held online insurance shopping platform Insurify sparked fears about the industry facing disruption.
Alphabet lines up 100-year sterling bond sale: FT reports deal comes as Google parent steps up AI borrowing rush with $20bn sale of dollar bonds.
Bloomberg: Alphabet embarks on global bond spree to fund record spending
+ Alphabet Inc. raised $20 billion in its biggest ever US dollar bond sale, more than the $15 billion initially expected, after racking up one of the biggest order books of all time.
+ The company is planning debut deals in Switzerland and the UK, including a rare sale of 100-year bonds, to finance its artificial intelligence ambitions.
+ Alphabet's big borrowing spree comes as tech companies are ramping up spending to meet their ambitious artificial intelligence plans, with capital expenditures for the four biggest US tech companies forecast to reach about $650 billion in 2026.
$660bn: The collective sum Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have pledged to spend on AI in the coming year.
How to hedge a bubble, AI edition: Protecting your portfolio from a crash looks harder than ever. Economist
Bloomberg: AI helps scam centers evade crackdown in Asia, dupe more victims
+ Criminals in Southeast Asia are using inexpensive AI tools to target bigger pools of potential victims at high speed, making their cons more sophisticated.
+ AI allows scammers to change course quickly, shifting to newer targets and from fresh locations, and helps with voice cloning and creating realistic images for profiles.
+ The use of AI is likely to reshape the phenomenon of scam centers, making them more willing to run the risk of being caught, and allowing operators to scale up at low cost.
Bloomberg: Microsoft hit with second downgrade as Melius warns on AI risks
AI blitzes the big game: DealBook reports ads pitching artificial intelligence companies dominated the Super Bowl broadcast. Their huge cost probably didn’t ease investor worries about spending.
+ Almost a quarter of this year’s Super Bowl ads — 15 of the 66 spots, which sold for an average of $8 million for 30-second slots — featured AI, according to iSpot, a TV advertising analytics company.
Bloomberg: China’s Pony AI, Toyota start ramp-up of self-driving car model
BYD faces a tough market in Japan as rivals win bigger EV subsidies: Nikkei reports Chinese automaker looks to plug-in hybrids to win over long-distance drivers.
Why General Motors is making a ‘risky’ bet on an unproven battery technology: Driving down costs is top priority for head of electric cars at Detroit carmaker. FT
Elon Musk’s relentless AI pursuit has him on the hunt for capital: Spiraling costs have prompted talk of a Tesla and SpaceX merger as the billionaire looks to use his empire to fund his ambitions. Bloomberg
Reuters: SpaceX prioritizes lunar 'self-growing city' over Mars project, Musk says
From fishing nets to furniture: Turning ocean plastic into usable products: A brother-and-sister team in Spain started a sustainable business model recycling old and damaged nets into stadium seating and decorations. NYT
“Flying” electric boats could remake urban transport: The convergence of three technologies has made possible the reinvention of the hydrofoil. Economist
‘They want their pound of flesh’: bank bosses push strict return-to-office mandates: FT reports culture, pay, and expensive offices among reasons for ending remote work.
The 10 best Super Bowl ads of 2026: AdWeek picks the standout commercials of Super Bowl 60. AdWeek
The Super Bowl ads, ranked: Here is our critic’s survey of this year’s Super Bowl commercials, from best to worst to AI. NYT
Indonesian beauty retailer Sociolla eyes 500 stores and ASEAN expansion: Nikkei reports CEO attributes rapid rise to offline-online strategy and winning over brands.
De Beers likely to be sold to consortium, Anglo chief says: FT reports Duncan Wanblad says buyer will probably include both government and private entities.
Three cups of tea or coffee ‘lowers risk of dementia by almost a fifth’: The Times reports a large study from Harvard University suggests that caffeine has a protective effect on the brain with three cuppas a day the optimum amount.
*** Culture ***
Bad Bunny uses ioy to put out political firestorm at Super Bowl halftime: WSJ reports: ‘We’re still here,’ Puerto Rican superstar says in Spanish while spiking a football.
Wuthering Heights review — Margot Robbie is a Brontë Barbie: Emerald Fennell’s film fails to reflect the complexity of the greatest gothic novel in English literature — and the less said about Jacob Elordi the better. The Times
Bloomberg: NYC private school tuition breaks $70,000 milestone for fall
+ The top private schools in New York City plan to charge more than $70,000 this year for tuition, exceeding that of many elite colleges, as they pass on the costs of soaring expenses, including teacher salaries.
+ Schools explain the increases by pointing to rising expenditures and the escalating costs of living in New York,k which requires higher salaries to retain top teachers and staff.
+ Tuition can include learning supplies, meals, and extracurricular programs like field trips, and some schools provide financial aid to students, with amounts varying by school.
*** Sport ***
Lindsey Vonn reveals she suffered a fractured shin bone in Olympic crash: WSJ reports the 41-year-old star, who was racing on a partially rebuilt knee and a torn ACL, said she would require multiple surgeries to repair the leg.
Trump calls US skier a ‘loser’ as politics ripples through Olympic Games: WSJ reports Hunter Hess said he had ‘mixed emotions’ about representing the US right now.
Olympic drones are creating a buzz, but what do athletes think? There are 10 traditional drones being used and more than two dozen first-person-view drones designed to deliver immersive, athlete-level perspectives. WP
2026 Olympics: 'In Russia, even an amateur athlete can become an agent of influence': The Milan-Cortina Olympic Games mark a new stage in the reintegration of Russian athletes into international competitions. The momentum has been fueled by Moscow's efforts to use sports as an instrument of power, explains researcher Lukas Aubin in an interview with Le Monde.
Bloomberg: Gambling stocks sag as prediction markets steal Super Bowl bets
Kalshi and Polymarket rewrite the Super Bowl playbook for pro gamblers: The sudden rise of prediction markets has sophisticated bettors scrambling to adjust their strategies. Bloomberg
The unthinkable trade that remade the Seahawks into Super Bowl champions: Russell Wilson led Seattle to its first championship 12 years ago. But dealing him away helped build the foundation for the franchise to win its second. WSJ
Want to lose weight? Here’s why exercise probably won’t help. As a physician, I want people to know that exercise confers many benefits for our bodies. Weight loss is not one of them. Jordan D. Metzl
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal