Caracal Global Daily
Caracal Global Daily is a human-curated global intelligence briefing that connects geopolitical developments, economic trends, and strategic business insights.
February 12, 2026
Detroit, MI
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
The transatlantic alliance is down but not out: The Munich Security Conference will serve as a gut check of the frayed relationship and whether Europe can hold on to its emerging self-assurance. Politico
NATO to bolster Arctic presence after Trump Greenland threats: Politico reports NATO wants allies to send maritime patrol vessels to the Arctic and formalize joint exercises near Greenland, military officials say.
War games: Europe is not ready for war with Russia, a wargame suggested, with a relatively small incursion by Moscow’s forces likely to overwhelm forces in a crucial city in Lithuania. The Die Welt-organized simulation imagined a 15,000-strong force attacking Marijampolė, a key highway hub, with the US declining to invoke Article 5 and European capitals slow to respond.
WELT: Without US backing, Europe would struggle to defend against a Russian invasion: Politico reports wargame exercise demonstrated the limits of European decision-making at a time of US pullback.
US signals limited military pullback from Europe: Politico reports: “We will continue to show up,” America's ambassador to NATO said.
Aboard a NATO warship as it practices hunting Russian subs: The alliance is boosting coordination of national forces in the Arctic. WSJ
Pentagon prepares second aircraft carrier to deploy to the Middle East: WSJ reports Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program.
US weighs seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil to pressure Tehran: WSJ reports, but using a strategy the White House directed at Venezuela is seen as likely to spark retaliation by Tehran and a surge in oil prices.
Iran: Trump said he insisted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that nuclear talks with Iran would continue, despite Israeli skepticism about a diplomatic breakthrough.
Vance visits Armenia, Azerbaijan as Trump eyes deals in Russia’s sphere: WP reports the vice president’s historic trip illustrates Trump’s transactional diplomacy and willingness to use economic muscle to elbow out rivals such as Russia and Iran.
Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal: FT reports Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees.
Bloomberg: Zelenskiy says deal on territory is focus of next talks with US
Pressure for Ukraine-Russia deal mounts ahead of fall elections in US: Politico reports as Kyiv continues to suffer nighttime lows of minus 20 Celsius amid Russian strikes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says 2026 US midterms are now the strongest driver for a peace deal.
What it’s like to be a banker in Russia during wartime: The Russian unit of Austria’s Raiffeisen is immensely profitable, but it can’t get the money out of the country. Bloomberg
US, China race for influence in Pakistan: Semafor reports Washington wants to spend $1.25 billion to secure supplies of critical minerals, though the Pakistani region it is focused on has since become a locus of violence: A militant group launched attacks across several towns, and the military said it killed upwards of 200 fighters in response.
NSA pick warns of China pursuing AI chips for weapons: China is “aggressively” looking to acquire advanced artificial intelligence chips in order to “accelerate its development of AI-enhanced weapons,” President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command said in correspondence with Congress first shared with Semafor.
The political battle for AI in space: Will regulatory hurdles give China the edge in orbital data centers? WSJ-Editorial
Analysis: Japan PM's historic landslide reverberates in China: Beijing's foreign policy blunder triggers emergence of 'Takaichi 2.0.' Nikkei
Switzerland to vote on plan to cap population at 10mn: FT reports the country has 9.1mn permanent residents and experts fear the move will limit companies’ access to foreign talent.
France's demographics debate focuses on birth rates while ignoring touchier measures: Le Monde reports that politicians have struggled to address the various aspects of France's current demographic shift. The debate on the issue remains focused on boosting birth rates, while steering clear of more sensitive topics such as immigration or the retirement age.
+ @Polymarket: JUST IN: UK Supreme Court outlaws calling oat milk "milk"
Keir Starmer was aware Lord Doyle backed paedophile, No 10 admits: The Times reports Kemi Badenoch accused the PM of appointing ‘paedophile apologists’ over Doyle’s peerage, following his support for a councillor charged with sex offences.
The alternatives to Sir Keir: Eventually the improbable, the implausible or the once-impossible will become inevitable. Economist
Nigeria steps up US lobbying push: Per Semafor, the Nigerian government is mounting an aggressive lobbying campaign in Washington as it faces an onslaught of criticism over claims of Christian genocide from the Trump administration. First Lady Remi Tinubu, an ordained Christian pastor, attended the annual National Prayer Breakfast gathering hosted by US President Donald Trump last week as part of the effort. She also appeared on several conservative US media outlets and met with members of Congress. Nigerian officials and their allies have emphasized Tinubu’s pastoral role as evidence that the government cannot credibly be accused of enabling religious persecution.
ARG: Argentina’s inflation rate accelerated for a fifth straight month, suggesting President Javier Milei’s campaign to slash soaring prices may be faltering.
Brazil’s economy is being throttled by entrenched interests: The country should be faring much better. Economist
Treasury allows US companies to provide supplies to Venezuela for oil production: WSJ reports Trump administration put out a new general license authorizing equipment and technology transactions.
Canada’s big six banks on board for new multinational defence bank: BMO joins peers to support bank dedicated to financing defence projects for NATO members and allies. G+M
Canada wants NATO’s new Arctic Sentry security mission to become permanent, Anand says: G+M reports mission aims to co-ordinate increasing military presence of allies in the region.
Canada’s muscular new anti-Trump strategy debuts in Greenland: How an icy town of 20,000 became a testing ground for the new international order. Politico
Bridge owner lobbied administration before Trump blasted competing span to Canada: A Detroit billionaire met with Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, hours before President Trump said he would block the opening of a new bridge connecting Detroit to Canada, officials said. NYT
Trump wrong about Gordie Howe Bridge: Last night, my wife and I had a quiet evening watching Olympic highlights, including some incredible Michigan skaters. The quiet was quickly shattered by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he might stop the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge. Since I played a significant role in the bridge project, my phone and email have been flooded with media inquiries. I have generally kept a low profile over the past few years, but this topic merits a few comments. Rick Snyder
+ Rick Snyder is a former governor of Michigan.
Trump’s crony Canadian bridgegate: He threatens to block Detroit’s new link to Canada, after Lutnick meets a competitor. WSJ-Editorial
USMCA: Trump is reportedly weighing exiting the North American trade pact he signed during his first term. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for review this year, and the US trade representative said the White House would hold separate talks with both countries.
Bloomberg: Trump privately weighs quitting USMCA trade pact he signed
+ President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada, and Mexico.
+ A White House official described Trump as the ultimate decision-maker and someone always seeking a better deal for the American people, while an official in US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s office said the administration intended to keep Trump’s options open and negotiate to address issues that had been identified.
+ The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set for a mandatory review before a possible extension on July 1, a process that was once expected to be routine but has transformed into a contentious negotiation, with Trump demanding additional trade concessions from Ottawa and Mexico City.
Bloomberg: Drones, drugs, laser beams stir confusion over Texas skies
CNBC: FAA abruptly lifts order halting El Paso flights; Trump official says Defense Dept. disabled Mexican cartel drones
Daily Mail: Trump administration shoots down party balloon with laser after mistaking it for cartel drone in El Paso airspace chaos
+ @davidshepardson: Per Pentagon in 2024, drones crossing from Mexico "likely exceed 1,000 per month" -- so why would single Mexican drone prompt 10-day NOTAM to close El Paso
G+M: US airspace closure caused by Pentagon plan to test lasers targeting Mexican cartel drones, sources say
How OpenAI got comfortable with the Pentagon using ChatGPT: Semafor reports the chatbot will be offered through Genai dot mil, a new program the Pentagon launched last month. The tricky part for OpenAI was that the Pentagon was asking to use its technology for “all lawful uses,” meaning the company couldn’t impose any restrictions on what it or its employees view as acceptable implementation, either for moral or technical reasons.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Jobs up: US employers added more jobs in January than economists had expected.
WP: US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, the strongest gain in months
House votes to cancel Trump’s Canada tariffs: Six Republicans joined nearly all Democrats to end the national emergency President Donald Trump had declared to impose tariffs on imports from Canada. NYT
Bloomberg: US House defies Trump and votes to end his Canada tariffs
House blows open gates on tariff war: Per Punchbowl News, the House is now going to have open season on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump suffered a serious political blow Tuesday night when the House voted down a rule blocking members from offering resolutions to end the numerous tariffs the president has levied since returning to office. With that vote, members will have effectively unfettered ability to force up or down votes on the president’s global trade agenda. This will start immediately.
US House votes down tariff rule in rebuke to Trump: FT reports lawmakers reject proposal by Republican leadership that would have blocked votes to challenge president’s trade policy.
White House expects ‘substantial’ GOP defections on Canada tariff vote in House: Politico reports a White House official said that while the administration is talking to House offices Wednesday in an effort to defeat the measure, “our expectation is that the effort will not be successful.”
Trump wants to revive shipping. Investors are slow to back him. NYT reports a French logistics behemoth promised $20 billion for the United States, but a year into President Trump’s second term, only a fraction of the money has arrived.
Bloomberg: White House opens meeting to Democratic governors after snub
Trump allows Democratic governors at White House meeting after initial snub: WP reports the president had initially excluded Democrats from the traditionally bipartisan meeting. However, not all Democrats were invited to a separate dinner.
Trump’s grip on billions of taxpayer dollars loosened by courts: US judges have halted the administration’s cuts to funding in more than half of 167 spending fights in the past year. Bloomberg
National Guard troops were quietly withdrawn from some US cities: WP reports the deployments encountered repeated legal setbacks that stymied President Donald Trump’s desire for a show of force in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland, Oregon.
ICE: More than 1,400 employees at Salesforce are circulating a letter calling on CEO Marc Benioff to cancel all potential business with ICE. Employees at Google and Palantir have raised similar concerns, while French tech giant Capgemini announced it will sell its US subsidiary, which has a contract with ICE.
How Democrats aim to curb ICE without losing votes: Economist reports its brutal tactics are unpopular with Americans. But so is border insecurity.
Pam Bondi lashes out as lawmakers press her on Epstein, cases against Trump foes: WP reports the attorney general lobbed insults when lawmakers questioned her decisions and portrayed the Justice Department as unfairly maligned by Democrats and Trump critics.
Dems challenge Pam Bondi to address Epstein’s victims at House Judiciary hearing: Politico reports the DOJ’s handling of the Epstein files is becoming a central theme of Wednesday’s Oversight hearing.
Bondi dodges questions about Lutnick’s connections with Epstein: Politico reports the Commerce secretary has faced few recriminations from Trump world over the latest revelations about his connections to the late financier.
The White House is shrugging at Lutnick’s Epstein ties. His foes are too. Politico reports it’s the latest example of how little weight association with Epstein carries for high-profile figures in the Trump administration.
Bloomberg: Columbia admitted Epstein’s girlfriend via ‘irregular’ process
A law firm chair resigned after Epstein revelations. Here’s the reality. Brad Karp stepped down as chair of Paul, Weiss — but it was a soft landing. Politico
Behind Trump’s push to remake the Kennedy Center in his own image: The venerated cultural institution is facing falling ticket sales and canceled performances. WSJ
Trump decries a ‘nation of renters’ but his new policy promotes one: NYT reports President Trump’s recently announced executive order that would bar big investors from acquiring single-family homes includes an exemption that allows them to build homes for rent.
Johnson says he has urged Florida Republican to stay in Congress: Politico reports Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL) is retiring and is believed to be considering an early exit from the House.
WP: Virginia Democrats quickly approve proposed redistricting map
What will happen in the midterms? Freddy Gray
Democrats seek to counter Trump, boost 2028 profiles on European tour: WP reports Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ruben Gallego, and Gretchen Whitmer hope to reassure anxious European allies at the Munich Security Conference.
The Democrats aren’t built for this: They say they want to save democracy. First they’ll need to get out of their own way. Mark Leibovich
Republicans face uphill fight for NY governor: ‘We’re in bad shape’: NYT reports Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee against Gov. Kathy Hochul, has shown he can win in the suburbs. But political winds are blowing in his face.
Bloomberg: Trump orders Pentagon to buy coal power in boost to industry
+ President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal plants to power military operations.
+ Trump announced millions of dollars to upgrade existing coal facilities, including $175 million to fund upgrades at six coal plants.
+ Trump said his administration's actions would help boost coal power generation, delivering lower prices for consumers and ensuring industries critical to national security had steady power supplies.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
CNBC: Heineken to slash up to 6,000 jobs in AI ‘productivity savings’ amid slump in beer sales
+ Heineken’s CEO told CNBC on Wednesday that AI is “partly” behind the plan to cut up to 7% of its workforce.
+ The Dutch brewer’s beer volumes declined 2.4% over the course of 2025.
Mistral’s revenues soar over $400mn as Europe seeks AI independence: FT reports French start-up is riding a growing wave of demand from European businesses for alternatives to US tech.
Anthropic safety researcher quits, warning ‘world is in peril’: Semafor reports Mrinank Sharma said the safety team “constantly [faces] pressures to set aside what matters most,” citing concerns about bioterrorism and other risks.
‘The world is in peril’: AI researchers quit with public warnings: The Times reports two employees of OpenAI and Anthropic cited concerns about the future of humanity amid wider resignations in the industry.
Co-founders of Elon Musk’s xAI join exodus from start-up’s tech team: FT reports Jimmy Ba will be the sixth member of the founding team to depart.
Bill Ackman makes a big bet on Meta: WSJ reports Pershing Square has disclosed a roughly $2 billion position in Facebook’s parent.
Elliott takes stake in London Stock Exchange Owner: WSJ reports the hedge fund’s move comes as an AI threat looms over financial data providers.
Bloomberg: Apple’s latest attempt to launch new Siri runs into snags
+ Apple Inc.'s upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant has run into snags during testing, potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions.
+ The company is now working to spread the new capabilities out over future versions, possibly postponing at least some features until at least iOS 26.5 or iOS 27.
+ Testing has uncovered problems with the software, including issues with Siri properly processing queries, taking too long to handle requests, and accuracy issues, prompting the latest postponements.
Ping! The WhatsApps that should have been an email: If your instant message requires immediate attention, fine. But many don’t — they’re just inconsiderate. Tim Harford
Toyota to release 1st US-made EV this year: Nikkei reports the flagship Highlander to be 1 of 6 electric models for the American market.
The airlines fighting the expansion of Heathrow: The carriers say the £33bn plan for a new runway is unaffordable. The airport says the companies just want to keep out competitors. FT
Waldorf Astoria’s Chinese owners plan to sell NYC hotel after extravagant makeover: WSJ reports sale would be part of recent wave of Chinese property owners pulling out of US market.
Kraft Heinz’s CEO signed on for a breakup. Now he has a plan to keep it together. WSJ reports maker of ketchup and macaroni pauses plan to split into two; Steve Cahillane says new investments will help return to profitable growth.
*** Culture ***
Inside the Kennedy Center’s scorched-earth Washington National Opera split: How an opera leader plotted a path to leave the legendary arts center after the Trump takeover alienated audiences. WP
RIP: James Van Der Beek, the 'Dawson's Creek' star who later mocked his own hunky persona, has died at 48.
CNBC: Hamptons real estate prices hit record, with 2026 summer rentals going fast
What it was like to be a bush at Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl performance: The bushes on the field during the halftime show became a meme after the internet found out they were actually human performers. NBC
Sex, sex, and more sex: Emerald Fennell’s “Wuthering Heights”: An outlandish take on Emily Brontë’s novel highlights the adaptation conundrum. Economist
Don’t bother visiting Rome: If you must go, see the Pantheon and then get out. Ross Clark
*** Sport ***
US tourism is in a ‘Trump slump’ that could push World Cup fans away FC
+ The president’s foreign policy may undermine expectations for World Cup tourism in the US
+ With sky-high match ticket prices and the international reputation of the US as a tourism destination damaged, we believe it is unlikely that the tourism industry will recover in 2026.
2026 Winter Olympics: Milan becomes a city-sized theme park: The northern Italian city, renowned for its cultural wealth, has been abuzz with the excitement of the Olympics since February 6. On the streets, visitors seem far more drawn to the fever of the Games than to Milan's traditional landmarks. Le Monde
How the Olympics remade Montreal: Fifty years ago, Montreal hosted Canada’s first Olympics. A new exhibit shows how the Games pushed it to the brink. Jadine Ngan
+ @nytimes: Breaking News: Casey Wasserman will still lead the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles despite appearing in the Epstein files, organizers said.
US-UK soccer: At least 10 clubs outside the Premier League are now US-owned, alongside 11 in the top division itself.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Chief Communications Strategist @ Caracal
Caracal Global Daily | February 12
