Caracal Global Daily
March 20, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The Iran war has no endgame — and that's a business problem. The Strait of Hormuz is contested, Brent crude touched $119, and the White House is actively debating thousands of additional troops. Trump says no ground war. He's leaving wiggle room. Strategic ambiguity in a hot war zone doesn't resolve — it compounds.
2. Energy prices are structurally repricing the global economy. European gas +93%. Brent crude +52%. Heating oil +68%. This is not a spike. Every company with energy exposure, logistics costs, or manufacturing inputs is now operating in a materially different cost environment. If your Q2 guidance doesn't reflect this, you're behind.
3. Europe has broken from Washington — and it's not coming back quickly. Multiple allied nations refused to join the campaign in Iran. Le Monde calls it a transatlantic rift deeper than 2003 Iraq. This reshapes alliance assumptions across defense, energy, and trade. Companies with European operations should update their government relationship strategy accordingly.
4. State-sponsored propaganda is now inside your corporate communications environment. Iran's AI-Lego animations and the Trump administration's video war narrative share one logic: information warfare has gone consumer. Your employees, customers, and board members are inside the target zone. The assumptions underpinning your communications strategy were built for a different world.
5. AI-driven industrial capital deployment has started. Jeff Bezos is reportedly raising $100 billion to buy manufacturing companies and automate them with AI. SpaceX is displacing Boeing from NASA's moon mission. The capital redeployment isn't theoretical anymore — it has a dollar figure and a target sector.
*** Ross Rant ***
Lego-ganda: What Iran's propaganda playbook means for your business
+ State-sponsored propaganda has moved far beyond government-to-government signaling. It's now in your employees' news feeds, your customers' social media, and your stakeholders' sense of reality.
Lego made $13 billion last year. It also became an Iranian propaganda vehicle.
That's the headline from a recent Wall Street Journal investigation into the new information wars. Iran has been producing slick AI-enhanced videos using Lego animations, Japanese anime aesthetics, and Pixar-style visuals to sanitize combat footage, celebrate military strikes, and reframe its narrative for global audiences. The cartoonish format bypasses social media content filters. It travels freely. And it works precisely because Lego carries what Lukasz Olejnik, an independent technology consultant and a visiting fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, calls "reloaded emotional associations" that bypass critical thinking.
The Trump administration is running its own playbook. Wii graphics. Call of Duty overlays. Top Gun clips. AC/DC soundtracks. Real airstrike footage spliced with Iron Man. The goal: lock in the emotional framing before the domestic audience and American voter registers what they're actually watching.
Olejnik puts it plainly: "There's no going back. Trolling is now a standard tool of statecraft."
None of this is happening in a vacuum. And none of it is happening somewhere else.
It is happening within the information environment that your leadership team, workforce, customers, and board members consume every single day.
Why is this type of communication a business problem?
Most executives still treat information warfare as something that happens between governments, on cable news, in some distant theater of conflict. That framing is dangerously outdated.
State-sponsored propaganda has moved far beyond government-to-government signaling. It's now inside your employees' news feeds, your customers' social media, and your stakeholders' sense of reality. And increasingly, consumer brands are not just bystanders—They're the vehicle.
Lego didn't consent to becoming a propaganda asset. It didn't matter. The brand's global recognition and emotional resonance made it useful. That same logic applies to every trusted company, industry association, or executive voice that state actors can leverage, mimic, or discredit.
Consider what this means for your corporate communications strategy. The assumptions underpinning it — that credibility is built over time, that facts compete fairly with disinformation, that your messaging reaches your audience in an uncontested information space — are no longer reliable.
Your communications infrastructure was built for a different era. So was your risk function.
The convergence that changed everything
Two forces collided to produce this moment. AI slashed the cost of producing high-quality propaganda to near zero. And over decades of globalization, trusted Western cultural touchstones — Lego, Pixar, Nintendo, Marvel — were exported into every major market on Earth.
The result: state actors now have access to a global cultural toolkit with built-in emotional resonance, production tools that require no studio or budget, and distribution platforms that struggle to distinguish authentic content from state-sponsored manipulation.
The Wall Street Journal piece notes that this content isn't aimed solely at domestic audiences. It travels. It reaches allied nations, neutral countries, and, yes, the offices of Fortune 1000 companies that are trying to make sourcing decisions, navigate export controls, and assess geopolitical risk in real time.
Your intelligence inputs are contaminated. If your team is concluding open-source news, social media, or unvetted digital content without a rigorous analytical framework, they are almost certainly working from a compromised picture.
What business leaders need to do
1. Audit your intelligence inputs. Where is your leadership team getting its information? Is it from primary sources, institutional media with verified editorial standards, or open feeds that are actively being manipulated? Information diet matters. Build a sourcing protocol that distinguishes signal from noise, and from weaponized noise.
2. Brief your board on information warfare. Directors are processing the same contaminated information environment as everyone else. They need to understand how AI-generated propaganda operates, what it looks like, and why it's structurally designed to bypass skepticism. A prepared board makes better decisions under pressure.
3. Protect your brand from weaponization. Review your brand's global footprint and cultural associations. What makes your brand trusted and recognizable also makes it potentially useful to bad actors who want to borrow that credibility. Work with your legal, communications, and government affairs teams to build early-warning protocols.
4. Recalibrate your corporate communications strategy. Clarity, consistency, and verified sourcing now function as competitive advantages in an environment where audiences are bombarded with emotionally engineered content. Executive communication that is sober, specific, and credible carries premium weight. Complexity is not your enemy. Vagueness is.
5. Build direct government intelligence relationships. Corporate intelligence functions that rely purely on open-source and commercial data are operating at a structural disadvantage. The most sophisticated companies are building formal channels with government stakeholders — not to lobby, but to share and receive timely, vetted threat intelligence.
The strategic frame
Tariff volatility. NATO credibility erosion. Supply chain disruption. Chinese competition. Accelerated warfare. AI and tech sovereignty. Export control tightening. Interest rate uncertainty.
Weaponization of propaganda is not a separate threat. It is the environment in which all of these other risks are communicated, processed, and responded to. You cannot make sharp decisions in a blurred information landscape.
The executives who navigate this period effectively will not be the ones who consumed the most information. They'll be the ones who have disciplined frameworks for evaluating it.
So, Lego-ganda, are you responding reactively?
A Chief Geopolitical Officer doesn't wait for breaking news. They monitor geopolitical signals daily, translate them into business implications, and prepare board members and senior executives to decide — not scramble.
Most Fortune 1,000 companies and private equity portfolio companies don't have one. Caracal Global is your fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
—Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Strait of Hormuz becomes site of asymmetric naval war with uncertain outcome: Le Monde reports that despite the military might of the US, which has sent two aircraft carriers to the region, Iran has the capability to disrupt operations with its drones and the threat of mines, which, for now, are enough to block navigation through the strategic maritime passage.
The Iran war is metastasizing. Trump needs an endgame. Coercion, diplomacy or both — but the president needs to choose a strategy and implement it. David Ignatius
The enormous financial cost of three weeks of war in Iran: An estimated $11 billion was spent in just the first six days. Bloomberg
Pentagon seeks more than $200 billion in budget request for Iran war: WP reports some White House officials do not think the Defense Department’s request has a realistic shot of being approved in Congress, one senior administration official said.
Le Monde: Hegseth addresses cost of Iran war, says it 'takes money to kill bad guys'
CBS: Pete Hegseth says "largest strike package yet" coming today in Iran war
CNBC: Netanyahu says Iran is being ‘decimated’ but revolution requires ‘ground component’
+ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “Iran is being decimated” as the U.S. and Israel target its ballistic missile and nuclear programs from the air.
+ But meaningful regime change will require a “ground component,” Netanyahu said, adding that the Iranian people must ultimately “rise to the moment.”
+ President Donald Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, said earlier that he would not send US troops to the Middle East.
+ Trump says ‘we’re not putting troops anywhere’
Trump says he won’t send troops to Iran but leaves wiggle room: NYT reports the president was cagey about his plans for Iran. He confirmed the Pentagon was seeking $200 billion to support a protracted war effort while also claiming it would be over soon.
You can’t do revolutions from the air, says Netanyahu: The Times reports Israel’s prime minister denied he had “dragged the US into war with Iran” but suggested that a ground operation may be necessary to overthrow the Iranian regime.
US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase: Reuters reports the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of US troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the US military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a US official and three people familiar with the matter.
Pentagon weighs sending more troops to Middle East: Politico reports the discussions, while evolving, would mark a drastic new step in the Iran war.
Trump is poised to take Iran’s Kharg Island. Here’s what could unfold next. The president’s attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure could determine the course of the war — and its domestic political fallout. Politico
What US Marines can do to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz: The Marine Corps unit expected to arrive in the Middle East next week could help seize Iran’s strategically important islands near the strait. WSJ
+ Some 65% of Americans believe President Donald Trump will order troops into a large-scale ground war in Iran, and just 7% support that idea, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
How the Trump White House tries to sell war and death as a game: Declassified footage spliced with cartoon and action movie clips seeks to glorify US military prowess. FT
Saudi official warns patience is limited as Iranian attacks barrage kingdom: NYT reports Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister, said Saudi Arabia was prepared to take military action if necessary, after waves of missile and drone attacks.
Iran leaves an isolated Trump grappling with historic oil crisis: With a fifth of global oil paralyzed, a chaotic campaign against Tehran leaves the White House scrambling to shield the US economy. Bloomberg
AP: After Iran escalates attacks on Gulf energy sites, Israel says it will stop striking its gas field
US encourages flow of Iranian oil while it battles Iran: NYT reports Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said removing sanctions on Iranian oil would lower global prices.
Trump sails into battle with Lloyd’s of London: The market’s historic strength in marine war insurance is being challenged by the US. John Gapper
Stocks decline and brent crude retreats after touching $119: WSJ reports Dow pares losses after Trump comments on not sending ground troops to Iran.
‘It’s a nightmare’: Rapid battlefield shifts leave markets trading blind: In the fog of war, precise data is scarce and the battlefield is shifting too fast for investors, leading to gyrating oil prices. WSJ
As attacks shake markets, Trump seeks to reassure Americans: NYT reports President Trump said he would do whatever was necessary to lower oil prices, and his Treasury secretary said the government might even take the paradoxical step of lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil.
Prices over the past month:
European gas: +93%
Heating oil: +68%
Brent crude: +52%
Crude oil: +45%
Gasoline: +39%
Coal: +20%
The yawning gap threatening the US economy: It takes just minutes to destroy energy infrastructure and it will takes months to rebuild it. Bloomberg
Israeli officials said US was told about South Pars attack: NYT reports President Trump first said the United States “knew nothing” about an attack on the gas field in Iran, which sent global oil and gas prices soaring. He then said he cautioned Israel against it.
Trump’s Iran war frays ties with allies as oil prices surge: WSJ reports multiple countries are offering assistance but not on the scale that the White House wants.
Europe said no to the US. This is new, and it is a major development: The Europeans' refusal to join Washington in the current Middle East war shows that the transatlantic rift is deeper than the one seen during the 2003 Iraq crisis. Sylvie Kauffmann
In Dubai, the world’s luxury brands face a wartime crisis: Executives for high-end brands worry that a prolonged war will hurt sales in a city important to the future of the luxury industry. NYT
Dubai tourism reels from Iranian missiles: Hotels in the UAE are placing staff on unpaid leave and shuttering buildings as occupancy levels plummet. FT
The UK must accept it is no longer a global power: Starmer has failed to level with the public that Britain’s control over its destiny is limited. Stephen Bush
EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week: Politico reports Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expected to fly Down Under to shake hands on agreement.
Ukraine suffers money setback after Hungary blocks $100 billion from Europe: WSJ reports European leaders approved vital cash for Kyiv last year but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán now opposes it over anger with Kyiv.
What would an Angela Rayner premiership look like? The former deputy prime minister is a favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer if the prime minister is forced out by the Labour Party after May’s local elections. The Times
Denmark was ready to blow up Greenland runways if US invaded: Danish soldiers sent to Arctic island in January were also given blood supplies in case of combat. FT
With Japanese prime minister at his side, Trump makes Pearl Harbor joke: WP reports Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi did not respond to President Donald Trump’s quip about the attack that killed more than 2,000 Americans.
Cuba’s broken economy leaves it at Donald Trump’s mercy: He seems more interested in creating a client state than a free Cuba. Economist
*** US Politics + Elections ***
SEC urged to restrict Chinese companies’ access to US capital markets: FT reports fear of national security risks and investor protections spurs rare bipartisan call for action from financial regulator.
Key student loan duties move from Education Department to Treasury: WP reports transferring the oversight of defaulted student loans is a significant step toward dismantling the Education Department.
Trump’s hand-picked panel votes to put his face on a US gold coin: WP reports the proposal had been rejected by members of a separate federal coin committee — and panned by former member Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
To Catholic thinkers, Pentagon’s AI demands violate ‘human dignity’: Fourteen Catholic moral theologians, ethicists, and philosophers have filed briefs in federal court supporting Anthropic in its fight. WP
Bloomberg: Billionaires Thiel and Uihlein pump millions into Republican PAC
Trump hasn’t lost his voters over Iran: MAGA voters turn out not to agree with the noisy podcasters who oppose the war. Karl Rove
Vance is in a bind, supporting a war that could cost him politically: People close to JD Vance concede that a long conflict will be a challenge for the next GOP nominee, but say the vice president hasn’t made up his mind about running. WP
Illinois’ Jewish Gov. JB Pritzker, once an AIPAC donor, slams pro-Israel lobby: TOI reports Pritzker, a billionaire and potential Democratic presidential hopeful, says lobby, which spent heavily on state’s primary races, has turned pro-Trump.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: SpaceX knocks Boeing from dominant role in NASA’s Moon mission
+ NASA is revising its moon-landing plans, reducing Boeing Co.'s role and elevating SpaceX's Starship rocket to propel astronauts to lunar orbit.
+ Under the new proposal, Starship and Orion would dock in Earth orbit, giving Starship the role of propelling the capsule to the moon's orbit, before taking astronauts down to the surface.
+ The consideration is part of a broader effort to accelerate the Artemis program to put humans back on the moon in 2028, an effort plagued for years by delays and cost overruns.
Dogfighting in space won’t look like the movies, but this company wants in on it: “Where we are today in space warfare is very similar to where air superiority was in the 1930s.” ARS
Ecolab nears deal for KKR’s data-center cooling company: WSJ reports Ecolab is set to pay between $4.5 billion and $5 billion for the business.
TC: Online bot traffic will exceed human traffic by 2027, Cloudflare CEO says
Why AI has not yet upset India’s IT industry: Deploying the technology is the real world is proving tricky. Economist
PwC US boss says partners who resist AI have no place at the firm: FT reports consultancy begins overhaul of pricing and services in face of technology undercutting its business.
OpenAI plans launch of desktop ‘superapp’ to refocus, simplify user experience: WSJ reports the AI company will combine ChatGPT, Codex app and browser in an effort to focus and streamline its resources.
Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in the carmaker Rivian to help launch a robotaxi fleet.
Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them.
AI travel agents? Bring them on: Some users may be reluctant to increase their dependence on Big Tech companies. John Thornhill
Empty diamond trading hub mirrors pain for $80 billion industry: Tariffs, wars, and the rise of lab-grown stones are upending the market and pushing down prices. Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs + JPMorgan are offering hedge fund clients ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market.
Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Monopoly? Not a chance, says Live Nation’s chief at antitrust trial. NYT reports Michael Rapino, the chief executive of the live entertainment colossus, fought back against accusations his company unfairly dominates the music industry.
Unilever in talks to separate food business and combine it with McCormick: WSJ reports the remaining Unilever company would focus on beauty, personal-care products, and home.
What the rise of chicken thighs says about America: Several of the country’s cultural and economic trends are converging in one piece of meat. WSJ
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
What is the vibe of Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner?
It's just past eight on a Thursday evening in downtown Washington, and the conversation has already gone somewhere no one planned.
There are twelve of you around the table.
Two hours ago, you didn't know most of the names.
Now you're in the middle of an argument — a good one, the kind where no one is performing, and everyone is thinking — about whether the thing everyone in this city believes is true is actually true at all.
Someone across the table has information you don't have. You can tell by the way they're choosing their words carefully. The Chatham House Rule is doing its job.
The plates have been cleared. Nobody has moved.
You came tonight, mildly curious.
You're leaving with three ideas you need to chase down, one introduction you didn't expect, and a question you're going to be turning over for weeks.
In a city full of rooms where people say important things to no one in particular, this one felt different.
You're already wondering when the next one is.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Jay-Z is set to celebrate the anniversaries of his seminal albums Reasonable Doubt and The Blueprint with a pair of concerts at Yankee Stadium in New York this summer.
How did Flea make a jazz album? Practice, practice, practice. The Red Hot Chili Peppers bassist returned to the trumpet for a new record featuring Nick Cave, Thom Yorke, and a core cast of contemporary jazz luminaries. NYT
ABC has canceled the already filmed ‘Bachelorette’ season starring Taylor Frankie Paul amid a domestic violence investigation.
The New Museum reopens, asking, ‘What is human?’ It’s a big, serious, adult show worth debating and even fighting over — just the way our critic likes it. NYT
*** Sport ***
MLB is getting into the prediction-market business through a multi-year deal with Polymarket.
Basketball stars try a new path to March Madness — and the NBA: The transfer portal is transforming Ivy League teams into proving grounds for players seeking NCAA tournament titles and pro basketball fame. Bloomberg
Jalen Rose: Fab Five would be treated different at Michigan State Marlowe Alter
Stephen Ross on F1:
Andrew Sorkin: “I think you made more money on F1 than the Dolphins. Am I wrong?"
Stephen Ross: "F1 has been great … We get more attendance for F1 races for three days than the entire (Dolphins) season tickets that we sold."
Erling Haaland invests in new world chess championship Guardian
FIFA rules women's teams must have female coaches: BBC reports every team in FIFA's women's football tournaments must include at least one female head coach or assistant coach following the introduction of new regulations.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 19
Caracal Global Daily
March 19, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Energy market volatility: Brent crude has breached the $110 mark following synchronized strikes on critical energy infrastructure in Iran and Qatar. The risk premium is expanding as Tehran labels Gulf Arab energy assets "legitimate targets," signaling a shift from a contained conflict to a systemic regional energy crisis.
2. Escalation in the Levant: Israel’s assassination of Iran’s intelligence minister and the expansion of strikes into central Beirut indicate a strategy of decapitation and total degradation. This isn't a skirmish; it is a campaign to permanently dismantle the "Axis of Resistance" architecture.
5. Transatlantic friction: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s vocal criticism of the lack of a "convincing plan" in Iran highlights a growing rift. While the UK aligns with US naval efforts, Germany’s pivot toward domestic stability and skepticism of US Middle East policy threatens the unified front required for post-war reconstruction.
3. The global supply chain chokepoint: The siege of the Strait of Hormuz is transitioning from a military standoff to a merchant shipping nightmare. GPS jamming and missile threats are forcing a return to analog navigation, driving insurance premiums to unsustainable levels for Fortune 1,000 logistics.
4. Federal Reserve reality check: Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a DOJ probe and an oil-induced inflation spike. With the national debt hitting $39 trillion and gas prices up 32% in a month, the Fed’s ability to "hold steady" is being eroded by geopolitical realities beyond its control.
*** Ross Rant ***
The geopolitical reckoning for the Fortune 1,000
The fog of war is lifting, and the view it reveals for the Fortune 1,000 is sobering. For years, the C-suite treated "geopolitical risk" as a line item in a slide deck—a theoretical "black swan" that lived on the periphery of the quarterly earnings call. Today, that swan has landed in the middle of the global supply chain, and it's carrying a $110 price tag per barrel.
The strikes on the world's largest LNG facility in Qatar and the Iranian gas fields aren't just military milestones; they are direct hits on the global bottom line. When Tehran declares energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as "prime targets," they aren't just threatening sovereign states—they are threatening the global manufacturing and distribution ecosystem. For any CEO navigating 2026, the question is no longer "Will the conflict impact us?" but rather "How long can we sustain a 32% jump in fuel costs before our margins evaporate?"
In Washington, the disconnect is palpable. While Tulsi Gabbard dodges Senate questions regarding "imminent threats," the market is doing the talking. The US is waiving the Jones Act and easing Venezuelan sanctions—moves of desperation, not strategy. We are witnessing a presidency that vowed to erase debt, only to see it double to $39 trillion, while simultaneously managing a war that devours the very munitions and naval readiness required to deter China. The delay of President Trump's Beijing visit isn't a scheduling conflict; it's a loss of leverage. Beijing is watching the US deplete its toolkit in the Middle East and taking notes.
Meanwhile, the private sector is facing a new kind of "gray zone" warfare. It's not just missiles; it's the systematic jamming of GPS in the Baltic and the Strait of Hormuz. Your logistics managers are currently looking for paper charts because the digital infrastructure we've relied on for thirty years is being weaponized. This is the new operating environment: high-tech ambitions met with low-tech disruption.
The reality for the modern boardroom is that "business as usual" ended when the first missile hit the Gulf. The traditional silos of "Public Affairs" and "Strategy" are insufficient when the variables are the Iranian retaliatory doctrine and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's refusal to back a war without a "convincing plan." You need more than a news feed; you need a map of how these collisions impact your specific capital allocation and stakeholder trust.
The role of the Chief Geopolitical Officer has never been more critical. At Caracal Global, we provide fractional CGO services for Fortune 1,000 companies and PE firms. We integrate Intelligence, Strategy, and Communications to help senior executives and boards navigate this volatile intersection of geopolitics and corporate affairs. We don't just watch the world; we help you lead through it.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
—Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
US intelligence saw no change in Iran’s missile capabilities before war: NYT reports on Wednesday, the director of national intelligence and CIA director contradicted one of the justifications the Trump administration had given for its attacks on Iran.
US intelligence chief struggles to avoid contradicting Donald Trump on Iran war: FT reports Tulsi Gabbard refuses to say whether Tehran posed an ‘imminent nuclear threat.’
Bloomberg: Gabbard dodges questions on whether Iran was ‘imminent threat’
+ Spy chief Tulsi Gabbard dodged questions about the severity of the threat posed by Iran in Senate testimony on Wednesday.
+ Gabbard declined to say whether she thought Iran represented an “imminent nuclear threat” to the US, as the White House has claimed.
+ Gabbard omitted a conclusion from her written testimony that Iran’s uranium enrichment program had been “obliterated” in strikes last year, and instead told Senators that Iran was trying to recover from the attacks on its nuclear facilities.
WP: Gabbard tells senators Iranian regime is degraded but still intact
For US, unmet expectations in Iran fit a familiar pattern in the region: Iran’s military retaliation, along with the political defiance of its new leaders, evokes a decades-old pattern of unrealized goals for American interventions in the region. NYT
Will Trump be able to stop his own war? Almost nothing he has said or done suggests he knows what he is doing. Jonah Shepp
WSJ: Oil tops $110 after Israel, Iran strike major energy sites
+ Gulf oil facilities are evacuated; Brent crude hits 52-week high
+ The US is temporarily waiving the Jones Act
Oil prices climb again after strikes in crucial Iranian gas field: WP reports the price spike threatens more pain at the pump for American drivers. A gallon of regular unleaded gas already averages $3.84 nationally, according to AAA — an increase of 32 percent from just a month ago.
Oil rises after Israel strikes Iran gas field and Tehran hitts Qatar fuel hub: WSJ reports Israel said it had killed Iran’s intelligence minister, the latest member of Tehran’s top leadership to be wiped out this week.
AP: US knew of Israeli strike on Iranian gas field but didn’t take part
FT: Iran inflicts ‘extensive damage’ on site of world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar
+ According to Iran’s Tasnim news, the regime’s Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning that energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar now constitutes “legitimate and prime targets” for Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, as soon as in the next few hours.
Vance, Wright to address oil execs amid Iran tensions: Politico reports the meeting comes as oil and gasoline prices have spiked after Iran closed a key waterway for global oil shipments.
AP: US eases Venezuela oil sanctions as Trump seeks to boost world oil supply during Iran war
What if Donald Trump decided to ban oil exports? Trying to keep prices low that way could backfire spectacularly. Economist
Strait of Hormuz siege leaves sailors dodging missiles and GPS jamming Bloomberg
NATO’s Rutte sidesteps Trump threats: Politico reports the military alliance chief said allies are in talks “collectively” on how best to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
British military to help US plan reopening of Strait of Hormuz: The Times reports a small team of UK planners will travel to the US after strikes on an Iranian gas field threatened global energy supplies.
King Charles will visit US despite tensions with Trump over Iran: The Times reports US officials are expected to stage a display of military strength as Charles undertakes the three-day visit, which has been planned months in advance.
Merz says US has 'no convincing plan' in Iran: DW reports Chancellor Merz has again ruled out Germany's taking a role in the war on Iran. He said the country would have advised against it from the start. Meanwhile, Germany looks set for an uptick in homebuilding.
Sanae Takaichi set for high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump over Iran: Japan’s PM prepares for toughest test yet as US urges Tokyo to send warships to the Gulf. FT
Japan's Sanae Takaichi's high-stakes meeting with Trump: DW reports US President Donald Trump wants allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. Japan can't join Trump's war, but on her visit to the US, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is bringing him a different kind of deal.
Takaichi will walk a diplomatic tightrope in Washington Gearoid Reidy
+ Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making her first trip to Washington as Japan's leader, with a question hanging over how far Tokyo will be pushed to contribute to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
+ The trip has already been subject to typical Trumpian whiplash, with the president initially calling for help and now insisting that no assistance is needed, while Japan maintains that it has not received a formal request to participate.
+ Takaichi's goal is to get back as much as she can from the US without overpaying, and she is expected to offer participation in the Golden Dome missile shield and promises to boost purchases of US oil, among other things.
Gulf States want the US to cripple Iran’s regime before ending the war: WSJ reports in pivot for region that had courted Tehran, Gulf leaders now insist that Iran must be rendered incapable of future attacks.
This Emirati billionaire put a voice to Gulf anger over Trump’s war in Iran: WP reports in a post on X, the hotel magnate lambasted the president for not considering collateral damage, although he later told The Post: “I blame Trump, but I blame the Iranians more.”
Israel is hunting down Iranian regime members in their hideouts, one by one: WSJ reports the killings of top officials mark milestones in a fierce campaign to bring down the Tehran government.
Israel intensifies strikes on Beirut, targeting areas once considered safe: NYT reports the Israeli military widened its attacks to the districts in the center of the Lebanese capital, destroying buildings, forcing residents to flee, and killing at least 10.
How Lego became a go-to meme of the propaganda wars: Throwback messaging using toys and videogames—with a dash of AI—is lowering defenses and opening new avenues for the information wars between rival states. WSJ
Shahed drones, the symbol of Russia-Iran cooperation: Le Monde reports that exported from Iran to Russia and then locally produced under license, the suicide drone has been enhanced with Russian navigation and jamming technologies, similar to some missiles used by Iran in the war launched by the US and Israel.
America’s war on Iran is a gift to Vladimir Putin: Ukraine’s other allies need to limit the windfall to Moscow. FT-Editorial
How Russian electronic warfare is forcing ships to abandon GPS: Merchant vessels in the Baltic Sea are regularly using ancient navigation methods such as paper charts because of disruption to satellite-based systems. The Times
Russia considers sending armed naval patrols to protect ‘shadow fleet’: FT reports Putin ally Patrushev says Moscow could deploy ‘mobile firing groups’ after series of suspected Ukrainian attacks on ships.
G+M: Fears rise in Ukraine as Middle East war diverts attention, consumes ammo
How Ukraine and Europe got caught in a geopolitical lovers’ tiff: A testing moment for steadfast allies. Economist
The Iran war could sap American military power for years: It is devouring munitions and exhausting an already stretched navy. Economist
Analysis: Trump's delay of China visit derails Xi's 2026 diplomacy: Trip could be scrapped as US president deals with repercussions of his Iran decision. Nikkei
Trump delays China trip during US-Israel war on Iran: DW reports Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing was meant to stabilize a fragile ceasefire in the trade and tech conflict with China. Now the war with Iran is reshaping his agenda — and the leverage wielded by Beijing.
US-Israel war with Iran shows fault lines in BRICS alliance: DW reports as the fallout from the US-Israeli war on Iran widens, BRICS countries face mounting pressure to respond — but internal rifts and competing interests have put the bloc's limitations on full display.
Pakistan pauses Afghanistan airstrikes after outrage over civilian deaths: NYT reports at least 143 people were killed in a Pakistani airstrike that hit a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul on Monday, according to a top UN official.
Meloni’s big gamble: Italy’s PM says she wants to speed up the justice system. Critics accuse her of eroding democracy’s checks and balances. FT
France flashes a warning for the US: Macron’s failures paved the way for extreme parties on both ends of the political spectrum. WP-Editorial
Japan and France eye sharing satellite data in space defense collaboration: Nikkei reports partnership grows in response to Chinese, Russian threats to communications.
Costa Rica cuts ties with Cuba, closes embassy in Havana: AFP reports Costa Rica on Wednesday cut diplomatic ties with Cuba and President Rodrigo Chaves declared that the "hemisphere must be cleansed of communists."
First international aid convoy arrives in crisis-hit Cuba: AFP reports the first shipment of international aid for crisis-hit Cuba has arrived in the country in the shape of five tons of medical supplies, official sources said Wednesday.
A dirty deal with Cuba would be better than the alternatives: A prolonged blockade risks creating a humanitarian crisis on America’s doorstep. Economist
Mark Carney's delicate balancing act at Canada's helm: The pragmatic former banker captivated the world with his speech in Davos on the autonomy of middle powers in the face of hegemonic giants. But the political footing of this tightrope walker remains difficult to define. Le Monde
A US invasion of Canada is still far-fetched. Canadians are preparing anyway: G+M reports from demonstrating peacefully to getting gun licences, Canadians are considering how to stand up for their nation.
CNN: US downgraded in democracy index as press freedom concerns grow
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Fortune: The national debt just crossed $39 trillion—almost doubling since Trump vowed to erase it
Bloomberg: Fed holds rates steady, Powell vows to stay amid DOJ probe
Fed holds rates steady as war in Iran upends the economic outlook: NYT reports Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, emphasized the high degree of uncertainty stemming from the conflict as he acknowledged the potential for surging energy prices to lift inflation and dent growth.
Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell says Iran oil crisis will worsen US inflation: FT reports short-term borrowing costs jump to the highest level since last summer as central bankers lift forecasts for price growth.
Trump ally warns US economy not strong enough to cope with Iran war: FT reports one-time pick to lead key statistics body EJ Antoni says inflation was ‘worse than we thought’ even before conflict.
How the Iran war is weakening Donald Trump: An unpopular conflict and costly fuel could hobble his presidency. Economist
The cost of the AI boom: A trade deficit the President detests. A recent surge of AI-related imports has become an impediment to the smaller trade deficit President Trump wants. NYT
Gabbard dodges questions about foreign threats to midterms: Politico reports the Trump administration has been moving to assert greater power over US elections based on claims of widespread fraud and foreign interference in past votes.
Why a record number of lawmakers are quitting Congress: Updated list shows House departures hitting a new high for midterms as members cite a range of political and personal reasons. WSJ
Stratton, Illinois Senate primary winner, vows to bring a ‘fight’ to Trump: NYT reports Ms. Stratton, a Democrat whose viral campaign ad featured voters’ profane views of Mr. Trump, said her campaign’s aggressive messaging was resonating.
Pritzker’s gamble to become a kingmaker in Illinois pays off: NYT reports Gov. JB Pritzker invested capital, both political and the more traditional kind, in the Senate race of his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton. Her victory could help them both.
SC-SEN: Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) “will seek a third term in 2028, abandoning a long-stated pledge that his 2022 campaign would be his last,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.
Why a Republican Senate hopeful in Texas is running attack ads in Florida: WP reports Sen. John Cornyn and his rival Ken Paxton are still vying for the president’s backing, overshadowing one of the year’s most expensive and closely watched Senate races.
Polymarket is expanding its presence in DC, opening “The Situation Room” — a bar solely dedicated to tracking news. “Imagine a sports bar... but just for situation monitoring - live X feeds, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals, and Polymarket screens. The company is turning its prediction platform into a physical hangout for traders and policy watchers.
MS NOW overhauls lineup from ‘Morning Joe’ through ‘The 11th Hour’ in major move: THR reports Stephanie Ruhle, Ali Velshi, Jacob Soboroff, and Alicia Menendez get new shows, 'Morning Joe' shifts to three hours, Chris Hayes returns to Mondays at 8, and Ana Cabrera exits in the sweeping changes.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Users hate it, but age-check tech is coming. Here’s how it works. On-device face scans and cross-platform age keys decrease privacy risks, but trust issues abound. ARS
Microsoft weighs legal action over $50bn Amazon-OpenAI cloud deal: FT reports rift deepens as start-up tests limits of Microsoft’s exclusive rights to host its models.
Is the AI era the beginning of the end of VC as we know it? The minimum viable team for building a significant technology business has dropped to one. FC
Meta is officially shutting down the Metaverse on June 15, 2026. $90 billion dollars spent on it.
New CEO Josh D’Amaro wants Disney’s flywheel to spin faster: WSJ reports former parks chief, who succeeded Bob Iger on Wednesday, hopes using technology to accelerate franchises can boost stagnant stock.
DN: Netflix plans 'KPop Demon Hunters' global concert tour, source says
Private club to the stars tests its appeal by pursuing new investors: San Vicente aims to sell a stake in the company to fund global expansion; members might bump into ‘Succession’ actor Jeremy Strong. WSJ
AP: Argentines once drank 90 liters of wine a year. Now they’re down to 15 — and 1,100 vineyards have already closed
Scientists tracked coffee drinkers for dementia risk over 43 years. Here’s what they found: A team of researchers investigated a previously inconclusive link between caffeinated coffee and tea with cognitive function. FC
Unilever and Kraft Heinz held talks over food merger uniting ketchup and mayo: FT reports exploration of deal worth tens of billions of dollars reflects struggle of both companies to combat subdued demand.
Quince copied its way to a $10 billion empire. Now it’s looking for a new story: The dupe-culture darling just raised $500 million. I ask the first head of brand and narrative how she’s positioning the brand for hyper growth. FC
How Zara fought off H&M and Shein: A touch of luxury has helped. Economist
Nine minutes: The time it takes BYD’s new electric car to fully charge.
A station wagon is entering one of the hardest 24-hour races in the world: Station wagons used to be family cars, but now they’re for going fast, too. ARS
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
What is the vibe of Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner?
It's just past eight on a Thursday evening in downtown Washington, and the conversation has already gone somewhere no one planned.
There are twelve of you around the table.
Two hours ago, you didn't know most of the names.
Now you're in the middle of an argument — a good one, the kind where no one is performing, and everyone is thinking — about whether the thing everyone in this city believes is true is actually true at all.
Someone across the table has information you don't have. You can tell by the way they're choosing their words carefully. The Chatham House Rule is doing its job.
The plates have been cleared. Nobody has moved.
You came tonight, mildly curious.
You're leaving with three ideas you need to chase down, one introduction you didn't expect, and a question you're going to be turning over for weeks.
In a city full of rooms where people say important things to no one in particular, this one felt different.
You're already wondering when the next one is.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Why Marc Andreessen’s ‘zero introspection’ approach will get you nowhere: The billionaire says looking inward just slows him down. But research shows a lack of self-awareness is bad for business—and yourself. FC
+ The Brigadoon Question: Zero introspection. Read it here.
*** Sport ***
Bloomberg: Ishbia’s Chicago land deal hints at new stadium for White Sox
+ Billionaire Justin Ishbia's private equity firm is under contract to buy a 47-acre property from Amtrak, fueling speculation that he's planning a new stadium for the Chicago White Sox.
+ A spokesperson for Ishbia said Shore is in the early stages of planning a mixed-use development that could include a health-care facility in partnership with Northwestern Medicine.
+ The White Sox majority owner said the team's focus "continues to be solely on the potential of a new ballpark at The 78", despite Ishbia's deal and his option to acquire a controlling stake in the team starting in 2034.
James Dyson buys 50% share in Gallagher Prem champions Bath: The Times reports the technology company chief, who is a supporter of the club and the fourth-richest person in the UK, will share ownership with Bruce Craig, and the investment will help fund stadium redevelopment.
Billionaire Dyson buys 50 percent stake in Bath rugby: AFP reports British billionaire businessman James Dyson has acquired a 50 percent stake in Bath, the English Prem rugby champions announced Wednesday.
Argentina enters race to host men’s Rugby World Cup in 2035: BAT reports news of the hosting bid comes ahead of a visit by Alan Gilpin, the chief executive of the World Rugby international federation, to Argentina.
‘Steroid Olympics’ company to start selling peptides after Kennedy signals deregulation: Enhanced Games, backed by Donald Trump Jr and Peter Thiel, is moving into consumer products. FT
Bloomberg: A $50,000 hockey puck is the latest US-Canada Olympic flashpoint
+ Jack Hughes wants the puck from his "golden goal" at the Winter Olympics final, but it is on display at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto.
+ Hughes believes he has earned the right to keep the puck and wants it for himself and his family, particularly to give to his father.
+ The International Ice Hockey Federation says the puck belongs to them and has been donated to the Hall of Fame for public display, as part of their mission to preserve the history of the game.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 18
Caracal Global Daily
March 18, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The Hormuz trap. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing global oil above $100 and Oman crude above $150. Trump went to his allies for help reopening it. They said no — formally, publicly, collectively. The US is now fighting this war without a coalition, and the energy markets have priced that in.
2. Alliance fracture, real-time. France, Canada, and the European bloc have refused to join the US offensive operations against Iran. Trump responded by declaring he no longer needs their help. This is not a diplomatic disagreement. This is a structural rupture in Western alliance architecture, and it is now on the record.
3. The decapitation gamble. Israel has killed Ali Larijani — Iran's security chief and one of the few officials capable of serving as a diplomatic back-channel — plus the head of the Basij militia. The regime is weaker. It is also less predictable. For boards: instability at the top of a nuclear-adjacent state is not a stabilizing development.
4. Washington is fracturing over this war. The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned, citing Israeli misinformation fed to the president. The House Judiciary Committee subpoenaed the attorney general over the Epstein files. The conservative coalition that launched this war is showing visible cracks.
5. China and Russia are the silent beneficiaries. Moscow is sharing satellite imagery and drone technology with Tehran to keep Iran in the fight. China faces an energy shock but gains strategic time and leverage with every week the US is consumed in the Gulf. Trump's China visit has been quietly delayed. Watch this axis closely.
*** Ross Rant ***
The alliance that isn't
Here is what happened yesterday.
The United States went to its allies and asked for help opening the Strait of Hormuz. France said no. Canada said no. Europe said no — collectively, formally, and on the record. Trump responded by declaring he no longer needs them.
This ask, deny, and rejection will be studied in foreign policy programs for a generation. For the executives reading this, it has a more immediate meaning: the Western alliance architecture your company has operated within for 80 years now has a visible crack. Not a hairline fracture. A load-bearing one.
Understand the structural dynamic. The US launched a military campaign without NATO consultation, alongside Israel, and then asked its allies to help manage the operational consequences.
European leaders — facing domestic opposition, energy market chaos, and populations who did not vote for this war — declined. That is not moral weakness. It is a political reality.
Three business implications arise from yesterday's news.
First, allied divergence is accelerating. If the US and Europe are operating from genuinely different strategic postures — not just rhetorically but in terms of actual military commitments, sanctions enforcement, and alliance obligations — the compliance environment for multinationals operating across both jurisdictions will continue to diverge. Export controls, sanctions compliance, data governance, AI regulation: these were already moving in different directions. They are now moving apart with political legitimacy on both sides. This allied divergence cannot be managed with a single government affairs strategy and a bit of nice diplomacy. You need distinct, jurisdiction-aware approaches — and you need them now.
Second, energy markets are no longer a managed risk. They are an unmanaged one. Oil above $100 globally, $150 in Oman, the world's most consequential maritime chokepoint under active blockade, no coalition to restore navigation, and a senior US counterterrorism official resigning in protest: there is no clean off-ramp visible from here. CFOs who built Q2 guidance on pre-war energy assumptions need to revisit those numbers. The scenario where this drags into summer is not a tail risk. It is the base case.
Third, the China-Russia axis is consolidating while Washington is occupied elsewhere. Moscow is arming Iran with satellite imagery and drone technology. China is absorbing the energy shock and positioning for post-war strategic advantage. Trump's China visit has been quietly delayed until who knows when. The autocratic coordination report released this week is not an abstract analysis. It describes China-Russia operational infrastructure — shared media, forums, personnel exchanges — that is currently in place while the US is distracted in the Gulf. Companies with significant China exposure need to ask a harder question: what decisions is Beijing making this quarter, in the window of reduced US attention?
The deeper pattern is one Caracal Global has been tracking since January. Geopolitical volatility is no longer episodic. It is structural. The Iran war, the Western alliance fracture, the domestic political ruptures within the Trump coalition — these are not crises that resolve into a stable baseline. They are recalibrations of the operating environment. The baseline has moved.
Your board needs a Chief Geopolitical Officer in the room — not a consultant on retainer for quarterly check-ins, but a strategic partner monitoring this environment daily and translating it into decisions your company can act on before the headlines force your hand.
That is what Caracal Global provides. Fractional CGO services for Fortune 1,000 companies and PE portfolio companies. Intelligence. Strategy. Communications. If the last two weeks have made it clear that your organization needs this capability, let's have that conversation. Drop me an email @ marc@caracal.global.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
—Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Israel urges Iranians to revolt but privately assesses they’ll be ‘slaughtered’: Israeli officials told US counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it would lead to a massacre, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Post.
Iran unleashes new crackdown on its people to head off uprising: WSJ reports battered by US and Israeli attacks, Iranian security forces are launching new arrests and warning of no mercy for protesters.
Iran confirms death of security chief Larijani: Le Monde reports Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the death of 'Martyr Dr. Ali Larijani,' stating that his son and his bodyguards died with him, after Israel announced earlier on Tuesday it had killed him in an air strike.
Israel keeps killing key Iranian leaders. Will it work? Israeli officials trumpeted airstrikes that killed Iran’s de facto leader and the commanders of a militia notorious for violently suppressing protests. But “decapitation has its limits,” an analyst warns. NYT
Why Ali Larijani’s death is a blow to Trump’s hopes for a deal: If the US president desired a quick end to the conflict, Larijani might have been someone to target for talks, but he may be replaced by someone more intractable. The Times
The killing of Ali Larijani weakens Iran—but at a cost: The regime is now less predictable. Economist
Israel’s decapitation strategy wipes out two top Iranians: WSJ reports the attacks on Iran’s security chief and the head of the Basij militia could make leaders more cautious, complicating the communications needed to run the war.
Netanyahu, a ‘proof of life’ video and the AI disinformation war: The Times reports attempts to prove the prime minister was alive and well were thwarted by online sleuths as Israel fights the Iranian war online.
Netanyahu posts ‘proof of life’ video as AI sows doubts about what’s real: NYT reports the unusual video is the latest demonstration that artificial intelligence is undermining trust — even in footage that is authentic.
‘They hold the cards now’: Trump allies fear Iran is slipping beyond the president’s control: Politico reports Trump supporters who backed his promise to avoid new Middle East wars worry Iran’s attacks on shipping are pushing the US toward escalation — and maybe even boots on the ground.
Russia is sharing satellite imagery and drone technology with Iran: WSJ reports Moscow has expanded intelligence sharing and military cooperation to help keep Tehran in the fight against US and Israeli military might.
America gave up some of its last minesweepers. Then Iran Made Them Necessary Again. WSJ reports the Strait of Hormuz could prove to be a testing ground for unmanned technology and AI in mine clearance.
How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired: Saudi Arabian détente with its regional rival has unravelled as US-Israeli war triggers furious Iranian retaliation. FT
America’s failing gunboat diplomacy: Like some fusty old imperialist, Donald Trump is flummoxed by foreigners. Economist
‘Never heard him so angry’: Trump is furious that global allies aren’t pitching in in Iran: Politico reports their assistance, the president said on Tuesday, is no longer needed.
Bloomberg: Trump ditches appeal for help in Iran war, slamming allies
+ US President Donald Trump abandoned his effort to recruit partners for the war with Iran and scolded allies who openly rejected his appeals.
+ The US and Israel kept up their attacks on Iran, with Israel saying it had killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, in an overnight operation.
+ The conflict has wreaked havoc on global energy markets, with oil hovering around $100 a barrel, and the US president has threatened to expand strikes on Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub.
Trump agitated and exasperated by continued blocking of strategic Strait of Hormuz: Le Monde reports the US president criticized his European allies for their lack of enthusiasm after proposing an operation aimed at restoring freedom of navigation for oil tankers blocked in the Persian Gulf.
Trump criticizes NATO allies for holding back military aid: WSJ reports the president said the US no longer needs help, as Israel announces killing of Iran’s security and militia chiefs in airstrikes.
European leaders rebuff Trump’s call to open the Strait of Hormuz: WP reports Trump has expressed frustration over a lack of military assistance from allies, but European leaders are reluctant to join a conflict he started without consulting them.
Reuters: France will never take part in operations to unblock Hormuz Strait amid hostilities, says Macron
Bloomberg: Canada rules out joining offensive operations against Iran
Takaichi's US visit: What will Japan say to Trump on Iran? Tokyo faces delicate balancing act between security and legal integrity. Nikkei
Volodymyr Zelensky called Iran and Russia “brothers in hatred” and urged countries not to ease sanctions on Russian oil during a visit to London.
Trump’s top counterterrorism aide resigns, citing Iran war: Politico reports Joe Kent, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center, said in a social media post Tuesday morning he “cannot in good conscience” support the administration’s war in Iran.
First senior official openly breaks with White House, resigns over war: WP reports Joe Kent, a close aide to the director of national intelligence, cited deliberate Israeli “misinformation” and lies to President Donald Trump about a “swift path to victory.”
Iran will define Trump’s legacy: He has a strong case to make, but if he backs down, the costs will be profound. Walter Russell Mead
One war, two mistakes: Those who favor the conflict with Iran and those who oppose it are each making a very large error. Eliot A. Cohen
How America’s war on Iran backfired: Tehran will now set the terms for peace. Nate Swanson
War requires ugly choices: If Trump wants to exit rather than escalate, he can take out Iran’s oil infrastructure. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
How to keep up the economic pressure against Iran: If the shooting stops and the regime is still in power, the US can still strike at its financial lifeline. Michael Doran
TC: Stryker says it’s restoring systems after pro-Iran hackers wiped thousands of employee devices
Oil in Oman soars above $150 as buyers rush to replace Gulf barrels: FT reports closure of Strait of Hormuz has caused growing ‘dislocation’ between global benchmarks and cost of physical supplies.
Bloomberg: US to ease Venezuela sanctions to unlock more oil amid Iran war
+ The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector to increase crude production.
+ The administration plans to issue more individual licenses and put in place a broader mechanism to make it easier for companies to enter Venezuela.
+ The moves are in response to surging prices due to the Iran war, with the administration aiming to restore peace and prosperity in Venezuela and bring more oil onto the market.
The era of US dominance in economic warfare is over: America has long used sanctions to coerce adversaries, but Iran and China can wield powerful economic weapons too. Nicholas Mulder
A prolonged war in Iran could hand China the commodity it prizes most: But a short, decisive campaign could cause Beijing to think twice about taking Taiwan. Craig Singleton
China cannot escape the energy shock: Despite renewables and reserves, it will suffer. Economist
China is not going to bail Trump out: The US president has a better chance of cajoling help from NATO partners. Edward Luce
It’s now official: Trump’s visit to China has been delayed.
Bloomberg: China, Russia driving autocratic shift around world, report says
+ Moscow and Beijing are driving closer collaboration between authoritarian states, according to researchers who used AI to track the activities.
+ China and Russia “sit at the center of global authoritarian collaboration” and were jointly involved in around half of all recorded activity, the report found.
+ The collaboration enables autocratic governments to “standardize narratives, cultivate relationships, and provide recurring venues for exchanging operational practices and personnel” through tools like forums and shared media networks.
Al Jazeera: Macron prepares France for ‘an age of nuclear weapons’ as Iran war rages
France's national political crisis is taking root locally: The first round of the municipal elections, marked by low turnout and fragmented landscapes in big cities, confirms the depth of France's political crisis. Françoise Fressoz
Assisted dying rejected by Scotland after landmark bill fails: The Holyrood vote on Liam McArthur’s bill means the terminally ill will not be allowed to end their lives on the NHS. The Times
From Vienna’s rooftops, the Kremlin is listening in: Russia has increased satellite dish activity on buildings it owns in Austrian capital. FT
Reuters: Kabul says Pakistan airstrike kills 408 at rehab centre, Islamabad rejects claim
Africa’s richest man has ambitious plans for the continent: But the tycoon also has his critics. Economist
Cuba struggles to revive obsolete power grid after nationwide blackout: WSJ reports residents endure long electricity outages as the island’s economy grinds to a halt, fueling unrest.
AP: Trump, Rubio call for new Cuban leaders as latest blackout underscores deepening economic crisis
Trump pledges imminent action against Cuba as Rubio calls for new leadership: G+M reports US President’s moves against Cuba have plunged the island deeper into crisis
Trump has choked off Cuba’s oil supply. China is stepping in with solar. WP reports Chinese-backed solar parks could be supplying as much as 10 percent of Cuba’s electricity, researchers say.
Cuba’s economic divides are widening: Luck and guile increasingly determine who gets how much. Economist
Milei blasts Iran on anniversary of attack on Israeli embassy: AFP reports Argentina's President Javier Milei on Tuesday slammed Iran and reiterated his support for the United States and Israel as he attended an event commemorating a deadly attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires some thirty years ago.
Inside the supply line delivering American guns to Mexican cartels: NYT reports a surge of weapons is flowing from the US to Mexico. These firearms — sourced from gun shops, shows, websites, and apps — are funneled across the border to fuel the country’s most violent crimes.
Toronto Star: Soaring oil prices could give Canada the leverage it needs with Trump in upcoming CUSMA talks
*** US Politics + Elections ***
‘It’s going to take a lot of work’: America struggles with housing crunch: Former steel town of Bethlehem is at the centre of the US shortage of affordable homes. FT
Gas: The US national average price for gasoline surpassed $3.75 a gallon for the first time since October 2023 on Tuesday, GasBuddy data showed, as global fuel markets continue to reel under supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war.
Bloomberg: Fed expected to hold rates, weigh oil shock
Rift widens among Republicans over Israel and war in Iran: As the US-Israel-Iran war continues, conservatism’s most famous figures are in a rhetorical brawl over America’s role. NYT
Trump plays hardball on voter-ID bill as some in GOP push back: WSJ reports Senate advances GOP’s SAVE America Act in initial vote, but it faces hurdles.
Judge questions Trump aides’ ‘brazen’ claims on White House ballroom: WP reports the planned $400 million project has been a top priority for the president. Judge Richard Leon said he hopes to rule this month on whether to halt construction.
Comer subpoenas Attorney General Pam Bondi over Epstein files: Politico reports Rep. James Comer (R-KY) issued a subpoena to the attorney general over her handling of the files after the committee ordered her to testify before lawmakers.
House panel subpoenas Pam Bondi in Epstein investigation: WP reports the Justice Department says the move by the committee, which has ordered the attorney general to appear April 14, is “unnecessary.”
Small US airports could close if shutdown continues, official warns: NYT reports TSA officers, working without pay for more than a month, have called out of work and quit in growing numbers as the shutdown drags on.
SEC prepares proposal to eliminate quarterly reporting requirement: WSJ reports Trump and others have said public companies should have to report earnings only twice a year.
Judge reinstates 1,000 Voice of America employees, deems wind-down illegal: WP reports US District Judge Royce C. Lamberth ruled that the near-total shutdown of the US Agency for Global Media, which oversees VOA and funds several international broadcasters, violated federal administrative law.
How a deep state bureaucrat became Trump’s ‘fake news’ enforcer: Brendan Carr is pointing his MAGA flamethrower at Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert and the American news media. Bloomberg
Is MAGA in its cringe era? Trump 2.0 was supposed to be younger and cooler than what came before. The vibes have shifted. WP
Bloomberg: Trump withholds support as battle for Texas Senate seat unfolds
+ Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are escalating attack ads and pouring more money into the Republican Senate runoff in Texas.
+ Both candidates want to lure voters to their side, but their most important target remains President Donald Trump, who has turned "decidedly more vague" about his endorsement.
+ The Republican battle has encouraged backers of the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, who is urging supporters to help him build up a financial war chest to counter either candidate.
JB Pritzker’s political brand is at stake—in a race he’s not even running in: WSJ reports Illinois’s governor has given at least $5 million to a group backing his lieutenant governor and upsetting the Congressional Black Caucus.
Trump says Newsom shouldn’t be President because he is dyslexic: NYT reports Trump said “a president should not have learning disabilities,” prompting criticism from a group that advocates equal opportunities for people with learning disabilities.
Arizona files illegal-gambling charges against predictions platform Kalshi: WSJ reports the state says startup violates laws against elections betting and unlicensed wagering.
Canadian billionaire Stephen Smith buys £300mn stake in The Economist: FT reports financial services entrepreneur acquires 27% stake in auction that drew interest from wealthy individuals and media groups.
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Warner Bros. CEO to make $667 million on Paramount sale
The blowup that exposed how America’s banks are entangled in private credit: Western Alliance vs. Jefferies fight exposes risks to bank backing for private credit. WSJ
‘Zombie’ second mortgages spur new battles in state capitols: Debt collectors are blindsiding borrowers with years of back interest on old home loans. States are becoming a flashpoint in the legal battle. Bloomberg
JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand: Bank along with Wall Street peers risk a high-profile ‘hung deal’ if they cannot revive transaction. FT
Finance bros to tech bros: Don’t mess with my Bloomberg Terminal: Professional investors spend more time with the computer system than they do with their spouses. So when AI evangelists declared it ‘cooked,’ it was war. WSJ
Reporter says gamblers pressured him to change story about missile strike so they could win: Millions of dollars were potentially riding on the 28-year-old correspondent’s short blog post about an Iranian missile striking outside Jerusalem and harming no one. WP
Nvidia says it is restarting production of AI chips for sale in China: WSJ reports CEO Jensen Huang says company’s supply chain is ‘fired up’ after months of mixed signals from the Chinese market.
Nvidia is expanding its empire: The AI boom’s biggest winner moves beyond chips. Economist
OpenAI to cut back on side projects in push to ‘nail’ core business: WSJ reports a top leader urges staff not to be distracted by ‘side quests’ as the company plans shift of resources to coding, enterprise businesses.
How World ID wants to put a unique human identity on every AI agent: Iris-scan backed tokens could help stop agent swarms from overwhelming online systems. ARS
Bloomberg: AI’s money bots are here and everyone wants to handle their cash
+ The stablecoin industry has been waiting for a use case to prove digital dollars can power everyday commerce, but companies building payment systems for AI agents are finding the answer is more complicated.
+ Credit cards offer chargebacks, fraud protection, and dispute resolution that stablecoin payments cannot yet replicate, and card networks are positioning themselves to own the shift to agentic commerce.
+ Stablecoins may find a role in settling transactions behind the scenes, particularly for low-value transactions or those involving autonomous agents, but are unlikely to replace traditional payment methods in the near future.
Mastercard splashes up to $1.8 billion in bet on blockchain future: WSJ reports a deal for stablecoin-infrastructure company BVNK would help further link digital currencies and traditional payments.
How quantum computing works WSJ
WP: Grok turned yearbook and homecoming photos into child sexual abuse images, lawsuit alleges
Bloomberg: Apple’s head of home hardware leaves for smart ring maker Oura
+ Brian Lynch, Apple's senior director in charge of home devices, is leaving to join Oura Health Oy as senior vice president of hardware engineering.
+ Lynch's exit brings fresh upheaval to Apple's home devices division, which has been struggling to make headway in the smart home market and has experienced product delays.
+ Apple has been preparing a major push into smart home technology, including an advanced display with artificial intelligence and facial recognition, and Lynch had been overseeing the hardware side of the new devices.
America now has more spas and gyms than stores selling actual stuff: Landlords leased more space last year to service-oriented tenants than those selling products, with wellness and fitness leading the charge. WSJ
Amazon plans drastic cut in packages sent via already-struggling USPS: WSJ reports the e-commerce giant wants to reduce its postal volume by at least two-thirds by this fall.
BHP names Americas chief Brandon Craig as CEO: WSJ reports Craig, a veteran BHP executive who has run the miner’s Americas operations since March 2024, will succeed Mike Henry as CEO.
Drone maker backed by Erik Prince surges 500% in Wall Street debut: FT reports Swarmer jumped to a $380mn market cap after its IPO.
Tesla, LG bet on US batteries with $4.3 billion Michigan plant: WSJ reports Tesla needs tariff-free cells for its fast-growing energy storage business.
China's EV battery makers widen lead to over 70% global share: Nikkei reports South Korean players lose ground after betting on US market.
Japan's next-generation startups go global in a tougher world: Number of foreign founders grows while some look overseas for markets and capital. Nikkei
Christopher Sims, economist who taught the data to speak, dies at 83: WSJ reports the Nobel laureate’s work transformed how central banks understand cause and effect in the economy.
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
What is the vibe of Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner?
It's just past eight on a Thursday evening in downtown Washington, and the conversation has already gone somewhere no one planned.
There are twelve of you around the table.
Two hours ago, you didn't know most of the names.
Now you're in the middle of an argument — a good one, the kind where no one is performing, and everyone is thinking — about whether the thing everyone in this city believes is true is actually true at all.
Someone across the table has information you don't have. You can tell by the way they're choosing their words carefully. The Chatham House Rule is doing its job.
The plates have been cleared. Nobody has moved.
You came tonight, mildly curious.
You're leaving with three ideas you need to chase down, one introduction you didn't expect, and a question you're going to be turning over for weeks.
In a city full of rooms where people say important things to no one in particular, this one felt different.
You're already wondering when the next one is.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Banksy’s identity has been revealed. Expect his art to sell for a lot more. Anonymity helped the street artist move unchecked but made some collectors wary; ‘I feel more comfortable knowing who he is,’ says collector Peter Brant. WSJ
Looking for rotisserie chicken heaven? It’s in Montreal. The not-so-humble dish has become a Canadian classic mentioned alongside poutine, smoked meat, and bagels. NYT
Michelin Guide 2026: Michaël Arnoult, the only new three-star chef: Le Monde reports the chef at Les Morainières earned a coveted third star in the latest edition of the Michelin Guide, which was unveiled in Monaco on Monday. It was a triumph for the reserved master chef.
Oscars audience dips to 17.9 million in year with few surprises: Bloomberg reports the Academy Awards drew fewer spectators to its broadcast on Sunday night compared with a year ago, in a ceremony that was short on upsets or controversies. The annual film industry gala was watched by 17.9 million people, down 9.1% from 2025, according to Nielsen ratings. From 2029, the ceremony will air globally on Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube streaming platform.
*** Sport ***
Morocco has been declared the winner of the 2026 Afcon after Caf overturned the result of their final defeat to Senegal.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global