Caracal Global Daily
March 17, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. The US and Israel's strikes on Iran have disrupted the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Oil prices are surging. Diesel is approaching $5. Commodities markets, from farming to pharmaceuticals, are in motion. This is not a temporary disruption. Model it accordingly.
2. European allies are publicly refusing Trump's military demands. The UK, Germany, France, Japan, and others have rejected calls to send warships to the Strait. NATO's internal coherence is being tested in real time. If you have European operations, this is a board-level conversation.
3. The Trump-Xi summit is delayed. The most anticipated geopolitical reset of 2026 has been postponed. The US-China decoupling risk is rising. Supply chain strategy, cross-border capital deployment, and long-term market access planning all need to be revisited.
4. USMCA renegotiation begins today. More than $4 billion in goods crosses the US borders with Canada and Mexico daily. The outcome of these talks will reshape North American manufacturing strategy for the next decade. Your government affairs team should be at the table.
5. Nvidia projects $1 trillion in AI chip revenue through 2027. Meta is preparing to cut 20% of its workforce. These two data points tell the same story: AI is no longer a technology investment. It is a workforce transformation, a capital reallocation, and a competitive imperative.
*** Ross Rant ***
There is no billion-dollar bracket, just a marketing campaign
Kalshi just announced a $1 billion prize for a perfect March Madness bracket.
They will not pay it. Bet on it.
The math makes it impossible.
And they know it. This is one of the most elegant free marketing campaigns in recent memory, and every business leader should take notes.
Consider that every NCAA tournament game was a pure coin flip, your odds of a perfect 63-game bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. A quintillion has 18 zeros. Fine, let's be generous. Credit expert basketball knowledge. Account for seeding, form, and injury reports. Statisticians estimate the realistic odds fall somewhere between 1 in 120 billion and 1 in 1 trillion.
Pick your number. It doesn't matter. You won't win.
Kalshi's $1 billion prize is backed by SIG Parametrics, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies that helps Kalshi manage trading risks.
This is not a leap of faith. It is actuarially risk-free.
Warren Buffett tried the same play in 2014 through Quicken Loans.
One billion dollars for a perfect bracket. The best entry that year didn't survive the first round with a perfect record.
Nobody came close. Nobody ever does.
So what if you actually tried?
Here is where it gets interesting.
Suppose you built the best bracket-prediction system ever created.
World-class data science. Elite sports modeling. A proper $25 to $30 million investment in talent and infrastructure. You would get to 75% accuracy per game. That sounds impressive. Run it across 63 games, and your odds of a perfect bracket improve from 1 in 9.2 quintillion to roughly 1 in 290,000.
Better, but still significant downside risk.
The theoretical ceiling for correctly predicting any individual game is around 75-80%. Basketball is not a deterministic system. Upsets happen. Buzzer beaters happen. Players twist an ankle in warmups. Even a god-tier model cannot solve for chaos.
So what is Kalshi really doing?
Brilliant. Free. Marketing.
Kalshi gets its brand in front of millions of bracket-obsessed Americans at the most culturally engaged sports moment of the year. They spend nothing on the headline prize. They gain enormous brand visibility, new account creation, and a credibility halo from associating with a number that rewires the brain.
The promotion is not about probability. It is about positioning.
Every week, senior executives encounter their own version of the billion-dollar bracket: a market entry pitch with asymmetric downside, a partnership with headline upside and buried structural risk, a policy assumption that sounds stable until it isn't. The number on the cover looks transformative. The actual odds are buried in the footnotes.
Reading the real odds is the job.
At Caracal Global, we help Fortune 1,000 executives and private equity leaders read the fine print on geopolitical risk.
Not the headline number. Not the press release version. The actual odds are embedded in tariff policy, supply chain exposure, government relations, and cross-border market strategy.
If your team is navigating volatility that looks manageable on the surface, we should talk.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
In choosing ‘epic fury,’ Trump names a war and defines his presidency: The branding of the US military operation against Iran is a quintessentially Trumpian choice for a leader whose tenure has been marked by anger. NYT
US intelligence says Iran’s regime is consolidating power: WP reports Despite withering airstrikes, officials predict a weakened but more hard-line government in Tehran, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces.
WP: Number of US troops wounded in war surpasses 200 across 7 nations
Fire on US aircraft carrier raged for hours, sailors say: The Ford is now entering its 10th month of deployment after arriving in the Middle East from the Caribbean. NYT
Israel expands its ground invasion of southern Lebanon to try to eliminate Hezbollah fighters: G+M reports leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Britain pleaded for de-escalation and for immediate peace talks.
Mark Carney joins call for Israel not to invade Lebanon: Toronto Star reports the Prime Minister joined other world leaders in calling on Israel not to invade Lebanon after some Israeli troops crossed into the country.
‘This is not our war’: Europe and UK push back against Trump’s demands: NYT reports while some European countries said they were discussing ways to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several rejected President Trump’s calls to send warships.
European leaders rebuff Trump’s calls for military help in Strait of Hormuz: G+M reports UK’s Starmer rules out NATO mission, says country won’t be drawn into wider war.
Germany and UK refuse to be drawn into wider war: FT reports Japan and France dismiss prospect of sending vessels to help reopen Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg: Finland’s Stubb cautions NATO allies to heed Trump’s Hormuz call
+ Finland's President Alexander Stubb said NATO allies have to take Donald Trump at his word when the US president puts the future of the alliance on the line to safeguard passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
+ Trump insisted that allies in NATO and Asia should help ensure oil and gas shipments move through the key waterway, which has been effectively closed since the US and Israel attacked Iran.
+ Stubb said peace mediation is needed in the Middle East and suggested that Europeans or India could get involved, adding that the problem standing in the way of a peace process is that Israel, the US, and Iran have different interests.
Will America’s Asian allies get dragged into the Iran war? They are worried Uncle Sam will abandon them if they don’t fight. Economist
The battle for the Strait of Hormuz: Iran is giving Trump and Israel a reason to keep weakening the regime. WSJ-Editorial
CNBC: US is allowing Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent
+ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
+ “We’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Bessent said.
+ Tanker traffic through the strait has plunged as the Islamic Republic attacks commercial ships in the Persian Gulf.
+ Oil prices have surged in response since the start of the war.
Reuters: UAE crude output falls by more than half as Hormuz closure forces shut-ins
Red Sea oil shipments surge 21-fold after Hormuz closure: Nikkei reports the alternative route will not be enough to offset the drop in Persian Gulf exports.
US diesel prices soar to almost $5 as Iran war pinches global supplies: FT reports higher fuel costs will make it more expensive to transport goods and plant crops.
‘One day chicken, one day feathers’: Why US shale producers are not cheering $100 oil: Independent operators are caught in the middle between Trump’s Iran war aims and his promise of low petrol prices. FT
The Iran war is roiling commodities markets far beyond oil: Shortages of fuels and chemicals threaten industries from farming to pharmaceuticals. Economist
British Airways cancels Dubai flights until summer: FT reports airline axes services to UAE and other destinations hours after drone attack on Dubai’s main airport.
War may bring lasting change to the airline business: Western carriers will relish the chance to win some of their customers back. Economist
The Iran war is eroding America’s China deterrent: US tactical gains are consuming the ships, munitions, and readiness needed for the Indo-Pacific. Joe Costa + Ely Ratner
Politico: Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping may face delays, White House says
NYT: Trump says he wants to delay visit to China because of conflict
Trump says he is seeking to delay summit with China’s Xi due to Iran war: WSJ reports the president also said numerous countries were “on the way” to help fully open the vital Strait of Hormuz, but didn't say which ones.
Trump-Xi summit delayed as US president pushes China to help open Hormuz: WP reports Trump said the long-anticipated reboot of US-China relations would be postponed amid the Iran war and mounting pressure to reopen the critical oil route.
Donald Trump asks to postpone long-awaited summit with China’s Xi Jinping: FT reports US president says he needs to remain in Washington because of the war in the Middle East.
More than 200 people killed in Pakistan strike on Afghanistan hospital treating drug users: AP reports Afghanistan on Monday accused Pakistan’s military of targeting a Kabul hospital that treats drug users in airstrikes, with the country’s Health Ministry spokesman saying more than 200 people had been killed. Pakistan dismissed the accusation, saying the strikes — which were also conducted in eastern Afghanistan — did not hit any civilian sites.
French local elections: First-round results give sense of political landscape one year before presidential vote: With blurred lines between the right and far right, rivalry between the radical left and the Socialists, and the fading of the presidential party, the period between the two rounds of the municipal vote is a testing ground for political power balances ahead of the 2027 election. Le Monde
LFI makes unexpected breakthroughs in French municipal elections: Despite controversies, the radical-left movement scored highly in several major cities. The Socialists, who had distanced themselves from LFI, may now need its help in some races. Le Monde
AFP: Kenyans will no longer be enlisted to fight for Russia in Ukraine
Belgium’s prime minister calls for the EU to normalise ties with Russia: FT reports right-wing nationalist Bart De Wever challenges full support for Ukraine in the quest for lower energy prices.
The quiet recovery of Ireland’s ancient tongue: In the land of St Patrick, Irish is making a steady comeback. Economist
Bloomberg: Venezuela’s 600% inflation undercuts Trump’s boasts of revival
+ The Trump administration promised Venezuelans economic prosperity after removing Nicolás Maduro from power, but life has only gotten harder in the two months since.
+ Inflation has accelerated to around 600% in February, and about 80% of residents say their economic situation has not improved in the first two months of the year.
+ Some analysts see grounds for cautious optimism, with oil revenue potentially driving a 17% increase in consumer demand, but many Venezuelans are frustrated with the slow pace of change and the lack of improvement in their economic situation.
Cuban regime wants diaspora to own businesses on the island: WSJ reports in a diplomatic overture, the Communist regime is aiming to open up its moribund economy to the affluent Cuban-American diaspora.
Trump says he will have the ‘honor’ of ‘taking Cuba’: NYT reports President Trump’s words came as a top Cuban official said his country would announce on Monday a move to open the economy to foreign investors, including Cuban exiles.
+ @AP; BREAKING: Officials in Cuba report an island-wide blackout in the country of some 11 million people as its energy and economic crises deepen.
Ottawa investing $200-million in Nova Scotia spaceport to enable sovereign satellite launches: G+M reports three companies to receive funding through the government’s launch grant program in a bid to boost Canada’s space and defence capabilities.
Tricky negotiations begin Monday to renew a trade pact between the United States, Mexico, and Canada: Every day more than $4 billion worth of goods cross the United States’ borders with Canada and Mexico – US auto parts headed for car factories in northern Mexico, cartons of Mexican avocados bound for California supermarkets, Canadian aluminum destined to become cans of Campbell Soup. AP
*** US Politics + Elections ***
How Trump’s Homeland security pick, a prolific investor, got a lot wealthier in Congress: Markwayne Mullin’s financial dealings take on new importance as the Senate considers his nomination to lead an agency whose budget has vastly expanded. NYT
CNN: Trump’s handpicked Kennedy Center board approves two-year closure
Detroit News: Vice President JD Vance expected this week to visit Michigan
A 79-year-old freshman Senator? Janet Mills does not have a dicey Reddit history or a recently covered-over Nazi tattoo. But her candidacy is haunted by Joe Biden’s 2024 debacle. Mark Leibovich
ABC News: Some GOP donors plot shadow 'draft Rubio' 2028 effort as his star rises: Sources
How Trump drove a wedge between Florida Republicans over AI: A Florida bill to regulate artificial intelligence, backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, failed to gain traction after President Trump made it clear he did not want states to rein in the technology. NYT
Detroit Free Press: Michigan lawmakers weigh new rules for artificial intelligence
How Jeff Bezos upended The Washington Post: The billionaire newspaper owner, dissatisfied by years of losses, wants the newsroom to double productivity with half its budget. NYT
The New York Times now has a record 2,300 journalists, 50% larger than ten years ago.
Mark Guiducci is the man with a 57-page plan to fix Vanity Fair FT
Bloomberg: BBC asks judge to dismiss Trump $10 billion defamation suit
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Nvidia built the AI era. Now it has to defend it. At the opening of the company’s annual conference, Jensen Huang leaned on technology from a recent deal to show how artificial intelligence is changing. NYT
Bloomberg: Nvidia expects to make $1 trillion from AI chips through 2027
Meta stock surges following reports that it's laying off 20% of its workforce due to AI. Reuters reported that the company could lay off about 20 percent of its 79,000 employees. It would be the latest round of tech layoffs, as companies try to offset their huge investments in artificial intelligence.
Should you be able to have sex with ChatGPT? It’s a question Sam Altman is apparently thinking about — hard. John Herrman
Dinner and no drinks: Restaurants are struggling as Americans drink less: Traditionally a reliable revenue stream for restaurants, alcoholic drinks are down markedly — and the bottom line is, too. NYT
Rapid-charging EV batteries are on the way: They can be topped up in as little time as a tank of fuel. Economist
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
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Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Americans love everything about this Scottish university—except all the Americans: St Andrews is brimming with US students, thanks to its accessibility and fairy-tale campus; ‘there’s just so many Americans.’ WSJ
Tina Fey to host the first episode of ‘SNL UK’: THR reports Jamie Dornan and Riz Ahmed will follow as hosts of the long-running sketch show’s British version.
How Khruangbin’s sound became the new mood music: The Texan trio’s vibes have spawned countless imitators, but their magic isn’t so easy to replicate. NYT
*** Sport ***
Sucker: My year as a degenerate gambler. McKay Coppins
It was going to be Magic City Night at the Atlanta Hawks. Then the outrage poured in. The famous strip club is a symbol of the authentic city to many people in Atlanta. But others wondered whether the NBA should be promoting it. NYT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 16
Caracal Global Daily
March 16, 2026
Detroit, MI
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. Iran war, week three — with no exit ramp in sight. Trump faces stark choices: fight on or declare victory and pull back. Both carry serious consequences for energy markets, allied cohesion, and global trade routes.
2. Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a cascading global energy and supply chain crisis. Oil executives are warning the White House that conditions will worsen. Taiwan's semiconductor sector is now in the crosshairs.
3. US-China relations are fracturing at the worst possible moment. Trump's threat to delay the Xi summit — using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage — risks collapsing a diplomatic reboot that both economies need.
4. AI infrastructure capital deployment is accelerating at a historic scale. Meta commits $27 billion to Nebius. OpenAI is pursuing a PE joint venture. Nvidia's dominance faces a structural inflection point.
5. The political math on the Iran war is shifting against Republicans. Democrats are sharpening their midterm message. Tariffs and the war are converging into a credible liability heading into 2026.
*** Ross Rant ***
Going Strait
Three weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz appeared in most corporate risk frameworks as a scenario — something flagged in annual reviews, noted in board presentations, and rarely acted upon. That era is over. Iran has demonstrated something that will outlast this conflict: closing the world's most critical shipping chokepoint is achievable, the United States cannot reopen it quickly or alone, and the economic consequences radiate far faster than any military response can contain them.
Drone strikes on Dubai's airport. Cyberattacks that knocked tens of thousands of Stryker employees offline. Satellite imagery of the Middle East is quietly disappearing from open-source intelligence feeds. Jet fuel prices are rising, and airlines are rerouting flights. An Emirates flight that departed Dublin, flew for ten hours, and turned back. This is not a regional conflict. It is a systemic stress test for the global economy — and most executive teams are still treating it like a headline rather than an operating reality.
The pattern this week is unmistakable. Trump bet that Iran would capitulate before closing the Strait. It didn't. US allies are declining the White House's call to send warships: Japan cites legal constraints, Britain says it won't be dragged into a wider war, Australia has declined, and Spain calls the conflict a threat to the global order. China — the country with the most genuine diplomatic leverage over Tehran — has no incentive to use it, particularly now that Trump is threatening to cancel the Xi summit as a pressure tactic. India is conducting quiet diplomacy and claiming results. Gulf states are recalculating their exposure. And Iran's drone and missile arsenal, cheap, plentiful, and battle-tested, is producing a conflict unlike anything the US military has faced in recent decades.
Three things your leadership team needs to act on now.
1. Energy cost assumptions for 2026 are wrong. Oil executives have already told the White House the fuel crunch will worsen. If your planning models reflect pre-war energy prices, rebuild them this week—Stress-test at $110, $120, and $130 per barrel. The Hormuz closure is not short-term noise. It has the structural characteristics of a prolonged disruption.
2. Semiconductor exposure is more immediate than most companies recognize. The war is threatening the helium and sulfur supplies that Taiwan's chipmaking sector depends on — and Taiwan Semiconductor alone accounts for roughly a fifth of Taiwan's economy. A sustained disruption cascades through consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial production, with limited lead time to respond. Procurement teams need contingency postures now, not in Q3 when the damage is already compounding.
3. Government affairs and corporate diplomacy are your most underutilized strategic assets in this environment. The countries navigating the crisis most effectively — India, Canada, the Nordics — are doing so through sustained diplomatic investment and active relationship capital. Your company needs the equivalent: direct access to decision-makers in the markets where you operate, intelligence on where policy is moving, and a communication strategy that positions your organization as a constructive actor rather than a reactive one.
Hormuz has demonstrated to every strategic adversary what is achievable at scale. The next disruption will come faster, from a different chokepoint, and with less warning.
This is precisely why Caracal Global exists. We specialize in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics. We provide Fortune 1,000 companies and PE portfolio firms with fractional Chief Geopolitical Officer services — combining intelligence, strategy, and communications to help senior executives navigate today's interconnected business environment before a crisis becomes a cost. You need a CGO. You are not ready to hire one full-time. Caracal Global is your fractional solution.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
How Trump’s war with Iran changed the world in a week: The conflict is reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes, and diplomatic alliances. NYT
How Trump and his advisers miscalculated Iran’s response to war: In the lead-up to the US-Israeli attack, President Trump downplayed the risks to the energy markets as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime. NYT
+ The episode is emblematic of how much Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would respond to a conflict that the government in Tehran sees as an existential threat. Iran has responded far more aggressively than it did during last June’s 12-day war, firing barrages of missiles and drones at U.S. military bases, cities in Arab nations across the Middle East, and on Israeli population centers.
+ US officials have had to adjust plans on the fly, from hastily ordering the evacuation of embassies to developing policy proposals to reduce gas prices.
Nobody plans for a quagmire: Behind every military disaster is an honest mistake. Matthew Yglesias
Reuters: Israel says it has plans for at least three weeks of war as airstrikes pound Iran
Drone strike sparks huge fire at Dubai airport; Israel pledges to hit Iran ‘as long as needed’: WP reports flights were briefly suspended at one of the world’s busiest hubs as Tehran continued attacks across the region and Israel expanded ground operations in Lebanon.
The Iran war may be about to escalate: Gulf states could join the conflict. Economist
Entering war’s third week, Trump faces stark choices: As the conflict with Iran expands and intensifies, President Trump’s options — to fight on, or to move toward declaring victory and pulling back — both carry deeply problematic consequences. NYT
Iran’s cheap, plentiful weaponry puts US military under unprecedented strain: Bloomberg reports as the conflict extends toward a third week, an arsenal of attack drones and ballistic missiles has helped make Tehran unlike any adversary the US has faced.
I’ve seen several types of warfare. This is the worst. Drones are erasing any sense of safety, and Iran is only a warmup. Nolan Peterson
Open-source intelligence shuts down: Satellite images of the Middle East are suddenly disappearing. Economist
Could this be the end of Dubai? Richard Florida
+ An Emirates flight departing Dublin for Dubai took off, flew for over 10 hours, and returned to Dublin Airport instead of landing at its destination.
Thailand's tourism revival efforts hit by Middle Eastern crisis: Nikkei reports industry expects up to 15% drop in visitors as fares rise, flights canceled.
Hack on US medical company shows reach of Iran’s cyber capabilities: WSJ reports US officials say more cyberattacks on the homeland should be expected after global disruption forced tens of thousands of Stryker employees offline.
The who, what, and why of the attack that has shut down Stryker’s Windows network: Company says it doesn’t know how long it will take to restore its Microsoft environment. ARS
Trump knew the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He still went to war. The president told his White House team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the Strait, the world’s most vital shipping lane. WSJ
Hormuz: Iran’s dire Strait: Command the seas and you command the world. Peter Frankopan
Why Hormuz will haunt us long after this war ends: Iran has shown that control of the strait gives it a stranglehold over the world economy. Gideon Rachman
Oil industry warns Trump administration that fuel crunch will likely worsen: WSJ reports oil executives told officials in White House meetings the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may push up oil prices further.
Why Trump’s Hormuz problem is going global: President Trump is getting little to no support so far for his call that other countries do their part to try to ease an energy crisis prompted by US-Israeli attacks on Iran. NYT
Iran war catapults Asia to the frontline of a global energy crisis: Consumers worldwide face higher prices amid fears the conflict will reignite inflation. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Iran war chokepoints begin to cast doubt on global chip supply
+ The war in the Middle East is threatening the global semiconductor industry by potentially choking off key supplies and spiking the cost of power in Taiwan.
+ Taiwan's chipmaking sector, which drives about a fifth of the economy, depends on imports of chemicals, components, and materials from abroad, including helium and sulfur.
+ Any disruptions to Taiwan's electrical grid or supplies could affect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and have ripple effects on industries beyond tech, including consumer electronics and car-making.
India hails talks with Iran to open Strait of Hormuz: Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar tells FT diplomacy ‘is yielding results’ as Trump touts sending warships.
White House tries to build coalition on Iran to address energy crisis: WSJ reports the Trump administration is asking other countries to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but a deal isn’t set.
Trump call to send warships to Middle East puts Asian allies in bind: Nikkei reports Japan's Takaichi says escorting ships in Strait of Hormuz would be 'legally difficult.'
+ Australia not sending warships to Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure minister says
+ Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi said her country has no plans to send ships to the Gulf
Keir Starmer says Britain will not be dragged into wider war: The Times reports the prime minister resists the US president’s call to send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg: Spain’s Sánchez says Trump’s war on Iran undermines global order
CNN: Trump needs China’s help fixing the global oil crisis. It’s unlikely to play along
Donald Trump throws US-China reboot off course by saying he could delay Xi Jinping summit: FT reports president casts doubt on visit with Chinese leader as officials from both countries lay groundwork for improved relations.
Trump’s threat to delay summit with Xi casts new shadow over China relations: NYT reports President Trump warned that he could postpone a meeting set to begin in just over two weeks if China refuses to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
China urges Trump not to delay planned state visit: G+M reports Xi meeting ‘irreplaceable,’ China says, after Trump suggests he will delay over his demand for help policing Strait of Hormuz.
China’s economy off to steady start in 2026 amid lowered expectations: WSJ reports better-than-expected performance in first two months of year opens space for Beijing to pursue goal of shifting toward consumption-led growth.
China seeks ways to revive birth rate as population declines: Le Monde reports that during the annual session of the National People's Congress and a second assembly dedicated exclusively to proposals, deputies suggested measures such as extending paternity leave and increasing family allowances.
Reuters: Canada and Nordics focus on military procurement in 'middle-power' meet-up
G+M: Canada to spend nearly $35-billion to fortify North, assert sovereignty
Canada launches tens of billions in Arctic military investment: FT reports PM Mark Carney announces funds for three ‘forward operating bases’ and other upgrades in the country’s north.
Why Sweden is becoming a defense powerhouse as Europe rearms Bloomberg
UK faces ‘seismic moment’ as nationalists target election wins, says John Swinney: SNP leader hails prospect of success for parties in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland that want to break up the union. Guardian
BBC: Starmer defends Welsh and Scottish devolution stance after leaked memo row
NPR: Britain's Parliament boots its last hereditary Lords after 700 years
Cubans intensify protests after sundown, protected by the night and blackouts: WSJ reports residents in many cities bang pots, and in one town they sacked the office of the Communist Party in an outburst of violence.
He was Chevron’s man in Venezuela—and a CIA informant: After retiring from the US oil giant, Ali Moshiri warned the Trump administration it would face a morass if it tried to replace Maduro with the democratic opposition. WSJ
US and Mexico launch review of trade deal with Canada: FT reports Mexican government fears Donald Trump will seek big changes to the agreement he struck in his first term.
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Justice Dept. struggles to take basic steps in targeting Trump’s rivals: NYT reports a ruling Friday that derailed an investigation into the Federal Reserve chair at an exceptionally early stage showed the limits of President Trump’s campaign of legal retribution.
Poll: Israel's standing plummets among Democrats, fueling primaries on the left: More registered voters view Israel negatively than positively in the latest NBC News poll, driven by change among independents and especially Democrats.
Donald Trump’s Iran war could hand Congress to the Democrats: Economist reports that as the conflict drags on, Democrats are sharpening their response.
Trump’s tariffs will loom large over the midterms, whatever happens in Iran: US history shows that duties have a way of boomeranging back on their backers at election time. Bloomberg
Democrat Jim Clyburn to seek 18th term in Congress at age 85: FT reports re-election bid comes as critics say the US political system has become a gerontocracy.
Former Virginia first lady Dorothy McAuliffe launches congressional campaign: WP reports McAuliffe, whose husband is one of the Democratic Party’s most prolific fundraisers, is running in a newly redrawn district that still needs voter and court approval.
As states scrap for congressional seats, Virginia could tip the scales: WP reports the party’s well-funded canvassing and advertising campaign for a referendum that could add four blue seats to Congress has Republicans scrambling to respond.
Gavin Newsom has a hold-a-wolf-by-the-ears problem: If the California governor runs for president, he’ll face a tricky test coping with progressives. George Will
+ Jill Biden’s memoir is coming out on June 2.
Illinois primary shows rising political influence of Indian Americans: NYT reports that on Tuesday, Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi is looking to take a major step toward becoming only the second Indian American elected to the Senate.
‘We’re going to have a problem’: Republicans want Trump to move on from 2020: Politico reports that, facing a difficult midterm landscape, there's a growing view in the GOP that revisiting election grievances risks distracting from the issues that matter most.
Trump sold young voters on his vision. Many are having buyer’s remorse. WP reports they were a key part of the coalition that powered the president’s comeback, and their frustrations signal vulnerability for Republicans ahead of the midterms.
Everyone has Trump’s phone number now: The president’s personal iPhone has been lighting up. Michael Scherer + Ashley Parker
Rich Palm Beach residents seethe as Trump diverts flights over their homes: The FAA has barred all flights over Mar-a-Lago below 2,000 feet, even when the US president isn’t at his beach club. Bloomberg
Brian Doherty, historian of the Libertarian movement, dead at 57: The longtime Reason senior editor accidentally fell to his death in a park along the San Francisco Bay. Reason
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
Bloomberg: Data centers overtake offices in US construction-spending shift
Google Fiber will be sold to a private equity firm and will merge with a cable company: ARS reports that GFiber and Astound are merging with Alphabet, with Alphabet selling a majority stake to Stonepeak.
Netflix may have paid $600 million for Ben Affleck’s AI startup.
Meta will pay as much as $27 billion over the next five years for access to artificial intelligence infrastructure from cloud provider Nebius Group NV as it spends aggressively to compete with the industry’s top frontier models.
OpenAI’s bid to allow x-rated talk is freaking out its own advisers: WSJ reports warnings surface that the company risks creating a ‘sexy suicide coach’ if it begins allowing sexually explicit chats.
OpenAI is in advanced discussions to form a joint venture with private equity firms, including TPG Inc. and Bain Capital, that would focus on bolstering adoption of its AI software across their portfolio companies, Reuters reported on Monday.
Can Nvidia’s dominance survive the sea change under way in AI computing? Making chips for training AI models made it the world’s biggest company, but demand for inference is growing far faster. WSJ
Foxconn eyes another record year in 2026 as AI turbocharges sales: Nikkei reports key Nvidia supplier downplays impact of memory chip crunch but warns of war uncertainties.
Anduril, the autonomous weapons maker, doubles the size of its space unit: ARS reports: “We are focused on protecting space, assuring access to space, ensuring custody of space.”
Hellish new planet identified beyond solar system: Observations add to scientists’ expanding picture of
far-flung worlds. FT
Top Apollo executive sounds off on ‘arrogance’ in private markets: WSJ reports: ‘I literally think all the marks are wrong,’ Apollo’s John Zito said of private equity in previously unreported comments; Apollo says comment was about software companies.
Inside a $42 billion private-credit black box: More black boxes: WSJ reports Cliffwater fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions.
BYD’s latest EVs can get close to full charge in just 12 minutes: ARS reports carmaker’s technology means EVs can be ready almost as quickly as filling a fuel tank.
Google Maps gets its biggest navigation redesign in a decade, plus more AI: Google Maps is about to get more chatty and immersive. ARS
Lululemon scrambles to revive yoga pants empire amid fight with founder: The interim chief executives are trying to rejuvenate sales as the founder, Chip Wilson, engages in a proxy battle for the boardroom. NYT
Big bargains and ‘white knuckle’ buying: Inside the rise of TJ Maxx: Savvy buyers and a vast supply of high-end clothes have propelled discount chain’s owner TJX into retail’s big league. FT
China’s answer to Amazon launches rival European ecommerce service: JD dot com will launch service under its Joybuy brand after previously trying to crack market in 2022. FT
Small businesses are pushing back against private equity: Touting local and family-owned credentials, Main Street companies say they’re fending off sometimes multiple inquiries a day from PE firms. Bloomberg
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
Twelve seats. One conversation. No PowerPoints.
Brigadoon is coming to Washington, DC for an intimate salon dinner bringing together a carefully curated group of thinkers, builders, and leaders for an evening of genuine dialogue around topics shaping business and culture.
This isn't a networking event. It's something better.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
It’s the music you hear all day, without ever noticing: “Sync Music” has become the soundtrack to our lives — whether we realize it or not. NYT
Paris’s oldest three-Michelin star restaurant is downgraded: The Times reports L’Ambroisie, a temple of haute cuisine that has hosted Barack Obama, is still finding its feet after a change of head chef, the prestigious guide said.
Oscars review: Conan O’Brien does it again — this time, for the cinephiles: In his second stint as Oscars host, the late-night legend brought his signature silliness and deft professionalism to a ceremony that thrived by giving film fans what they want — including great winners. IW
*** Sport ***
Iran to pull out of men’s football World Cup: FT reports Tehran’s decision follows Australia’s move to grant asylum to female players.
Could an English soccer giant be booted from the Premier League? Tottenham, one of the 10 richest clubs in the game, is now flirting with relegation from the English top tier. It would be a $200 million disaster. WSJ
The NFL plots new Thanksgiving Eve game as its TV takeover continues: THR reports the league is also said to be exploring other new windows this season as the specter of an early media rights renewal looms.
The NBA will hold a vote at the Board of Governors meetings March 24-25 to explore adding expansion teams exclusively in Las Vegas and Seattle, with the two franchises targeted for the 2028-29 season, sources tell ESPN. There is momentum for stakeholders to approve
The cost of America’s sports betting habit: Since gambling was legalised in many states, its popularity has exploded, but researchers warn about the rising social and financial toll. FT
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global
Caracal Global Daily | March 11
Caracal Global Daily
March 11, 2026
Washington, DC
Here's what a Chief Geopolitical Officer should be monitoring today.
*** 5 issues Caracal Global is watching today ***
1. The costs of the war in Iran are mounting faster than the White House expected: Congress is beginning to notice.
2. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most dangerous chokepoint right now: Iran's ability to mine it gives Tehran escalation dominance even as its military crumbles.
3. Trump's visit to Beijing starts March 31: The first presidential visit to China since 2017 signals a strategic pivot that will reshape trade, tech, and geopolitical alignments.
4. Energy markets are repricing permanently: LNG, oil, helium, sulfur — the Iran war is not just an oil story. It is a global commodities shock in motion.
5. Congress is ceding war power to the executive: The institutional balance is shifting in ways that will define American foreign policy long after the Iran conflict ends.
*** Ross Rant ***
The war nobody planned to win
Eleven days into Operation Epic Fury, the most honest thing anyone in Washington can say is this: the United States started a war without an endstate.
Here is the pattern business leaders need to understand.
The Iran war is not one crisis. It is five overlapping crises arriving simultaneously: a munitions sustainability problem, an energy market shock, a Hormuz chokepoint that gives Tehran leverage despite military losses, a humanitarian emergency in Lebanon that is escalating rapidly, and a multi-decade allied coalition fracturing along national-interest lines in real time. France is playing broker. Germany is warning against endless war. Canada has drawn a clean line. The coalition of the willing does not exist in this Middle East conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz dimension deserves direct attention. Iran does not need to win militarily to destabilize global commerce. It only needs to mine the strait, threaten shipping, and raise transit costs. The US reports it has destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers. That is not reassurance — it is confirmation that the threat is active and ongoing. The LNG tankers already rerouting from Europe to Asia are the market's honest assessment of the risk.
Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing starting on March 31. This diplomatic visit to the Middle Kingdom is the most consequential signal inside all of this noise. A presidential visit to China while actively engaged in the Middle East conflict tells you something essential: Washington is managing its great power relationships carefully and does not want a two-front strategic environment. That visit will reshape the trade, technology, and geopolitical operating environment for the rest of 2026. Every company with US-China exposure should be watching the agenda, the tone, and what does not get said.
Three concrete implications for executives reading this today.
First, energy costs are not a short-term problem. They are a structural repricing that will shadow your cost base into 2027. Model it explicitly. Saudi Aramco's CEO used the word "catastrophic" if the Iran war drags on. He does not use language carelessly.
Second, the expansion of executive power documented in the Washington Post this week is not temporary. The president has started a war and levied sweeping tariffs, marking a major expansion of executive power at the expense of the legislative branch. Congress has ceded war authority and tariff authority to the White House with minimal resistance. That means policy can move faster, with less predictability, and with fewer legislative circuit breakers than your government affairs team is probably modeling. Update the assumption.
Third, supply chain repositioning is no longer a planning exercise. Apple now makes about 25% of iPhones in India after its China pivot. The company assembled about 55 million iPhones in India in 2025, up from 36 million a year earlier, with India's share of the total increasing rapidly. The companies that moved early are building durable cost and resilience advantages. The window is open — but it is not unlimited.
The war in Iran will end eventually. However, the volatility of global commerce will not end. The conflict has accelerated: energy market instability, allied fragmentation, executive branch unilateralism, and the great-power realignment are evident in every headline this week.
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
*** Globalization + Statecraft ***
Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates: WP reports the figure, accounting for the war’s first two days, is likely to intensify concerns in Congress that US forces are churning through a scarce supply of advanced weaponry.
Can the US sustain its war in Iran? Trump says the US has a "virtually unlimited" supply of weapons. His defense secretary says Iran has "no hope" of outlasting the US. But with reportedly low defensive missile stocks, how bullish should Washington be? DW
Iran’s cheap, plentiful weaponry puts US military under unprecedented strain: As the conflict extends towards a third week, an arsenal of attack drones and ballistic missiles has helped make Tehran unlike any adversary the US has faced. Bloomberg
Pentagon says 140 troops wounded in Operation Epic Fury: Politico reports the update provides the clearest accounting so far of US casualties tied to the Iran conflict, which has involved the deaths of seven US troops as of Monday.
The Trump team’s evolving messages on Iran: A look at how the reasons for war, along with objectives and timing, have shifted since the air assault began. WSJ
Trump seeks way out of Iran war but struggles to define it: Speaking from Florida on Monday, the US president highlighted Washington's military successes but failed to offer a clear path out of the conflict, fueling the impression of ongoing improvisation. Le Monde
Shifting sands? Trump and his elastic timeline for Iran war: AFP reports President Donald Trump announced he was sending US forces into war with Iran on February 28, kicking off a multidimensional regional conflict -- and a series of contradictory declarations on the American mission's scope and timeline.
There is no easy exit to Trump’s war: The US and Israeli attacks on Iran will leave the Middle East in greater turmoil. FT-Editorial
Taco on Iran will come too late for Trump: The US president has already done lasting damage to international trust in America. Edward Luce
How the Iran War is related to the real winner of the Iraq War 20 years ago Fortune
Trump’s Venezuela strategy has failed in Iran: The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei has dashed the US president’s hope of picking Iran’s new leader. Gideon Rachman
America’s war aims may be diverging from Israel’s: For Binyamin Netanyahu, they are, as ever, a question of politics. Economist
US showers Iran with bombs in most intense strikes of the war, Pentagon says: NYT reports Iranians cowered under the barrage as Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, said the US aimed to wipe out Iran’s capacity to obtain nuclear weapons “forever.”
Iranian military shows it knows how to adapt, US officials say: Iran appears to be targeting what it views as American vulnerabilities, including air defenses meant to guard troops and assets in the region. NYT
The first AI war: US and Israel use Iran to test autonomous tech: Questions have been raised about whether artificial intelligence misidentified the Iranian school that was bombed, killing 110 children and dozens of others. The Times
The ‘number station’ sending mystery messages to Iran: Radio station is broadcasting what appears to be coded orders in Farsi, echoing the Cold War. FT
Bloomberg: Trump warns Iran against laying mines in Strait of Hormuz
US ‘destroys 16 Iranian minelayers near Strait of Hormuz’: The Times reports Trump says Tehran will face ‘never seen before’ military repercussions if key shipping lane is sabotaged.
Macron vaunts French military 'power' aboard aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean: Le Monde reports from the flagship of the French navy, the Charles de Gaulle. The president emphasized the need to protect French citizens and allies on Monday and said he hoped Paris could contribute to the 'de-escalation' of the conflict.
France scales up anti-drone measures to industrial level as threat rises: Le Monde reports that as the government prepares to change the law to strengthen protection for sensitive sites, the industry is gearing up for a boom in the anti-drone market.
Germany’s Merz warns against ‘endless war’ in Iran: Politico reports the German chancellor expressed concern that there’s no “common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”
Canada will ‘never participate’ in Iran offensive, Mark Carney says: Toronto Star reports: ‘Canada supports the necessity to prevent Iran’s nuclear program and the export of terrorism,’ Carney said.
Three ways the Iran war could end — and the implications for the UK: From a swift end to months of disruption, the length of the conflict will determine the fate of oil prices, inflation, and growth. The Times
Nearly 700,000 displaced by war in Lebanon, UN says: NYT reports mass evacuation orders and an intensifying Israeli bombing campaign targeting the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah have caused a humanitarian crisis, aid groups warn.
Fresh Israeli strikes hit Lebanon after evacuation warnings: AFP reports fresh Israeli strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs and south Lebanon on Tuesday after the Israeli army warned people to evacuate, with Lebanese authorities saying nearly 760,000 people had been registered as displaced.
Israel rejects Lebanon’s request for ‘cessation’ in fighting to allow for talks: FT reports meeting between two longstanding enemies could take place in Cyprus.
Bloomberg: Iran's Hormuz control gives country leverage despite military struggles
+ Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz provides a means to escalate the conflict, which could lead to peace negotiations or global turmoil.
+ The regime's military is largely destroyed, but it sees the conflict as an existential threat and is willing to endure massive hardship rather than capitulate.
+ Iran's ability to target the global economy, including mining the Strait of Hormuz or destroying oil infrastructure, gives it "escalation dominance" and a say in what happens next.
It’s not just oil. The war in Iran is disrupting the supply of many essential goods. Prices of some commodities are already rising, while stockpiles of others could dwindle as the war drags on. NYT
LNG tankers change course away from Europe as Asian spot prices surge: Nikkei reports that the Iran war is sparking Asian supply concerns amid a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply: FT reports that ship-tracking data show gas carriers switching course as prices rise.
Soaring fuel prices to cast long shadow across US economy: FT reports industries from farming to airlines face long-term higher costs and will raise customer prices in response.
America has become an agent of chaos in world energy markets: A succession of US foreign policy choices has destabilised the oil industry. Emma Ashford
Donald Trump’s options to cool oil prices are sorely limited: He says he has a plan. It would need to be very cunning. Economist
Deleted tweet from Energy Secretary sends oil markets on another wild ride: WSJ reports that a now-erased post from Chris Wright whipsawed crude for the second straight session.
WSJ: IEA proposes largest ever oil release from strategic reserves
Saudi Aramco warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ if Iran war drags on: FT reports oil producer is racing to restore 70% of normal shipments, chief executive says.
Ottawa eyeing moves to boost oil production amid global supply shock: G+M reports the oil sector has been asked to assess crude quantities available for release into the market as the war in Iran escalates, and the Energy Minister says.
Iran conflict triggers losses for Citadel, Millennium, and Point72: Big-name hedge funds hit by big dollar-figure losses amid market upheaval. WSJ
Citadel and ExodusPoint stung by Iran war turmoil: FT reports multi-manager hedge funds have suffered losses amid huge volatility in oil and bond prices.
Short sellers target Wizz Air as Iran war wipes out profit: FT reports budget airline’s CEO says crisis is ‘more manageable’ than others after forecasting €50mn hit to its bottom line.
Big Tech’s uncertain future in the Persian Gulf: The expanding war in the Middle East has added new risks to the trillions of dollars in investments that tech companies have planned in the region. NYT
Shooting in Toronto targets US consulate building: WSJ reports authorities call the gunfire a national-security incident.
US consulate shooting in Toronto dubbed ‘national security incident’ as federal and local police search for two suspects: Toronto Star reports police are looking for two men who were seen travelling in a white Honda CRV. No injuries were reported after the shooting early Tuesday.
Carney denounces shots fired at US consulate in Toronto as intimidation: G+M reports RCMP say police will be stepping up patrols and security around the consulate.
India eases FDI rules in likely opening for Chinese investment: Nikkei reports the move marks the latest sign of rapprochement between the two Asian giants.
Trump to make three-day visit to China next month, White House says: Al Jazeera reports the three-day trip, at Beijing’s invitation, comes more than eight years after Trump’s first visit to China during his first stint as president.
+ Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2, the White House has said, in what will be the first official visit to Beijing by a United States president since Trump’s last trip there in 2017.
There are 56 ethnicities in China, and 55 are getting squashed: China wants its minorities decorative, but not distinct. Economist
Xi’s export juggernaut is leaving China’s factory workers behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs. Bloomberg
Bloomberg: Apple now makes about 25% of iPhones in India after China pivot
+ Apple Inc. increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there, reflecting the US company’s efforts to avoid tariffs on China.
+ The company assembled about 55 million iPhones in India in 2025, up from 36 million a year earlier, with India’s share of the total increasing rapidly.
+ Apple is deepening and widening its local supplier partnerships to make components, including lithium-ion cells, watch and phone enclosures, and accessories such as AirPods, as part of its long-term supply chain strategy
How one man’s prediction fueled fears of a 2027 Taiwan invasion: A US conclusion about China’s military plans quickly became a deadline for battle preparations. WSJ
Fukushima's corporate comeback 15 years after Japan's worst disaster: Industry has recovered from the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, but many workers have yet to return. Nikkei
France calls for new funding for civil nuclear energy: Le Monde reports that at the second World Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on Tuesday, EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen also announced a strategy to support investments in small modular reactors, backed by a €200 million guarantee.
Harry, William, and the royal rift that won’t heal: A schism in the House of Windsor looks irreconcilable. Inside the rift between Prince Harry and Prince William that could linger for decades to come. WSJ
Ford confirms plan to seize land from Toronto to expand island airport: Ontario Premier says he plans to compensate the city for the value of the land as well as any lost revenue. CBC
How polar geopolitics are creeping into the Arctic Winter Games: As youth from across the circumpolar North gather in Whitehorse, diplomats huddle on the sidelines. CBC
*** US Politics + Elections ***
Why Congress keeps handing Trump its power: The president has started a war and levied sweeping tariffs, marking a major expansion of executive power at the expense of the legislative branch. WP
Democrats demand Hegseth and Rubio testify on Iran war: NYT reports Senate Democratic leaders called on President Trump to dispatch the senior cabinet officials to make the case to Congress and the American public for the war in Iran.
Trump's sons back launch of new military drone company: FT reports the company will go public through a merger with a Nasdaq-listed operator of Florida golf courses.
Lost Latino love could cost Republicans the midterms: Trump’s much-vaunted success with Hispanics is turning to ashes. Economist
Bloomberg: Billionaire Brin now bets on Republican to govern California
+ Sergey Brin is spending millions of dollars to influence California politics, backing two rival gubernatorial candidates and other political efforts.
+ Brin is funding the campaigns of Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan, and has also donated to a pro-business political group, Building a Better California.
+ Brin's donations mark a turning point for him in California politics, despite his recent relocation to Nevada, and he has emerged as one of the largest political donors in the state's upcoming elections.
Vance or Rubio in ’28? It’s a question Trump can’t stop asking: The president has lately extolled the secretary of state amid the second term’s focus on foreign policy, but many see the vice president as a better heir to the MAGA empire. WSJ
Iran war elevates Marco Rubio in Trump's 2028 succession jockeying: NBC News reports Trump has been informally polling his circle of friends and advisers about the 2028 election, which could pit some of his top administration officials against one another.
JD Vance to headline fundraising tour as Republicans gear up for midterms: FT reports US vice-president’s drive comes as concerns over cost of living and Iran war weigh on support for the party.
Kamala Harris is buying time — but Democrats are looking ahead: Her extended book tour keeps 2028 in play. But conversations with Democrats suggest the party may already be searching for its next standard-bearer. Politico
How Jeffrey Epstein pulled Bill Gates and Microsoft into a web of sex, money, and secrets: How a convicted sex offender became a seven-figure negotiator for Microsoft’s No. 2 executive is the story of how Epstein got into the inner circle of Gates. Fortune
*** Distribution + Innovation ***
AI incites a new wave of grieving parents fighting for online safety: Blaming chatbots, they are joining an earlier push for better protections by parents who say social media contributed to their children’s deaths. NYT
Mother of British Columbia shooting victim sues OpenAI: NYT reports the company banned the shooter’s ChatGPT account but did not alert the authorities, a move that amounted to fatal negligence, the family claims.
Anthropic’s standoff with the Pentagon shakes up AI talent race: A dispute over how AI can be used by the military shows top employees are looking for more than just nine-figure pay packages. WSJ
Microsoft backs Anthropic in legal fight with the Pentagon: FT reports that the software giant is throwing its weight behind the AI start-up’s lawsuit challenging its designation as a supply chain risk.
AI 'man camps' offer golf, free steaks to lure workers in Texas: As data centers boom, developers are rushing to build housing and amenities in remote locales. Bloomberg
Fortune: AI could give you a 15-hour workweek. It’s not playing out that way
‘AI brain fry’ is real — and it’s making workers more exhausted, not more productive, new study finds Fortune
A new wave of disrupters takes on American health care: Patients are unhappy. Can AI help? Economist
Meta acquires Moltbook, the social network just for AI bots: NYT reports Matt Schlicht, the site’s creator, helped kick off Silicon Valley’s obsession with artificial intelligence agents. Two months later, he will join the Meta Superintelligence Lab.
Oracle raises 2027 sales view as AI demand outpaces supply: WSJ reports cloud-computing company restructures development teams as AI models become more efficient.
Sheryl Sandberg and Nick Clegg join Nvidia-backed AI start-up Nscale: FT reports cloud provider raises $2bn in largest deal of its kind for a European tech start-up.
Nvidia invests in Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab: WSJ reports the startup, founded by OpenAI’s former CTO, plans to deploy at least one gigawatt of Nvidia chips as part of a new partnership.
Yann LeCun’s AI start-up raises more than $1bn in Europe’s largest seed round: FT reports Meta’s former chief AI scientist launches AMI Labs with backing from Nvidia, Temasek, and Jeff Bezos.
Polymarket taps Palantir AI to police sports betting before it’s too late: Fortune reports Polymarket will use a software developed by Palantir and investment holding company TWG Global to monitor sports betting on its platform in the US, Bloomberg reported. Last year, Palantir and TWG Global formed a joint venture to expand AI adoption in financial institutions—this new platform will screen for participants who are already banned from sports betting. “Our partnership with Palantir and TWG AI allows us to apply world-class analytics and monitoring to sports markets,” CEO Shayne Coplan said in a statement to Bloomberg.
Bill Ackman filed to list a new closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA, on the New York Stock Exchange. As part of a dual listing, investors will also receive shares in Ackman’s parent hedge-fund management company.
Tokenized stocks are coming to a market near you: Five things to know: Big US exchanges are working on plans to offer digital tokens that mimic shares and trade 24/7. WSJ
BioNTech founders step down to start new venture: DW reports that Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci were instrumental in developing the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the West. Now they say they "are ready to become pioneers once again."
*** Brigadoon DC | Salon Dinner ***
Twelve seats. One conversation. No PowerPoints.
Brigadoon is coming to Washington, DC for an intimate salon dinner bringing together a carefully curated group of thinkers, builders, and leaders for an evening of genuine dialogue around topics shaping business and culture.
This isn't a networking event. It's something better.
Downtown Washington, DC
May 14, 2026
6:30 - 9:00 pm
Limited to 12 attendees
$500.00
Book your spot here.
*** Culture ***
Noma loses American Express sponsorship after report of past abuse by its chef: Two companies have withdrawn from a series of dinners in Los Angeles after The New York Times reported allegations that René Redzepi attacked workers.
Storage is the new status symbol: Why tuck away a $1 million car or six-figure Birkin bag when you can stage it like art? Bloomberg
Why Hamnet should win the best picture Oscar: By forefronting Jessie Buckley’s Agnes at the expense of her megastar husband, this female-directed feminist fest gives voice to the anguished howls of disenfranchised women everywhere. Guardian
*** Sport ***
No snow, no refund: weird weather tests Big Ski’s business model: Vail’s attempt to lock in revenue with its annual pass has come adrift because of rising prices amid less of the white stuff. FT
CVC sports empire signs €3.5bn debt deal after stake sale falters: Private equity firm agrees financing with KKR and Pimco after failing to convince investors to commit to large equity deal. FT
Two more members of Iran women's football team claim asylum in Australia: AFP reports two more members of Iran's visiting women's football team have claimed asylum in Australia after they were branded "traitors" at home over a pre-match protest, the government said Wednesday.
Fortune: Professional sports are desperate to reach female fans. So why did an NBA team try to host an event with a strip club?
Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.
-Marc
Marc A. Ross | Founder + Chief Geopolitical Officer @ Caracal Global