Canada, Trump, Kim, Paris, ZTE, Uber, Netflix, Citi, Brazil
Marc Ross Daily
June 12, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross
Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia
Marc Ross Daily = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits
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TOP FIVE
✔️ Does your state trade with Canada?
✔️ The G7 fiasco: It's time to isolate Donald Trump
✔️ Trump and Kim leave the denuclearization details for later
✔️ Paris more attractive than London for business investment
✔️ Senators move to sink Trump’s ZTE deal
ROSS RANT
Think populism is slowing down? Check out how Ontario voted
Populism establishes a beachhead in Canada's most prosperous and most important province of Ontario.
To understand what will happen with American politics and upcoming elections, I find exploring elections in other Western democracies to be an essential tool.
Last Thursday night, Doug Ford was elected as the next Premier of Ontario. A new expansion of populism now confronts Canada. Think Trump lands in Ontario.
CBC's Chris Hall wrote, "Doug Ford — the bombastic, blustering and populist former Toronto city councilor — is going to be the next premier of Canada's most populous province. His victory, convincing as it was, came with an exclamation mark. He put an end to 15 straight years of Liberal rule."
Toronto Star columnist Edward Keenan echoed the same scripting "Ford era promises a rocky road ahead for all of us."
He went onto say "the next four years under Premier Doug Ford: constant reasons to wonder about the malice vs. incompetence debate, with a loud portion of Ford’s supporters hoping and cheering for the former option. And many of the rest of us hoping instead for the latter, because perhaps if a problem is caused by incompetence, there is some hope it will be fixed, as those who caused it realize their mistake or grow more competent and capable."
@Richard_Florida tweeted: Ontario went from being a pro-urban province/ state like California or New York to joining the ranks of anti-urban Red states ...
I don't see the expansion of populism around Great Lakes stopping any time. Until CEOs of multinational corporations, Governors, and Mayors show leadership and engage voters in the Midwest on the value of globalization, this will be the result at the ballot box.
Endless outrage by the coastal elites will do little to change election outcomes.
Cross the Hudson and be in Cleveland.
Cross the Potomac and be in Detroit.
This is the three-part question facing US voters in 2018 and 2020: Do we protect the jobs of the past or invest in the jobs of the future? Do we subsidize the grey hairs or invest in today's 8th graders? Do we want to be part of a global world or not?
Voters today want protection, subsidies, and unilateralism.
Plan accordingly.
GEOECONOMICS
CBC: Trump says Trudeau's 'pushed around' comments will cost Canada 'a lot of money'
Trump says Trudeau "probably didn't know that Air Force One has about 20 televisions'
The G7 fiasco: It's time to isolate Donald Trump: The G7 summit once again made it clear that US President Donald Trump is intent on treating America's allies worse than its enemies. Europe must draw the consequences and seek to isolate Trump on the international stage.
Der Spiegel - Roland Nelles
East Germans invest and vote differently. Here's why. Data shows that both recent and older history influences how we behave in daily life. https://bloom.bg/2t7PQCf
OTD: In 1991 Boris Yeltsin became the first democratically elected president of Russia.
WSJ: Trump: Kim to start to denuclearization steps
Pact is short on details; President promises to halt military exercises
NYT: Trump and Kim see new chapter for nations after summit
FT: Trump and Kim pledge peace on Korean peninsula
LAT: Trump-Kim Jong Un summit fails to produce disarmament plan
Nikkei: Trump and Kim leave the denuclearization details for later
Bloomberg: Trump gave Kim a summit but left with little to show for it
WP: Trump says US, North Korea are ‘ready to write a new chapter’
US military in Korea says no guidance on cancelling war games: Reuters reports, US military forces in Korea have not received any direction to cease joint military drills, a spokesman said on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said war games would be ended amid talks with North Korea.
US opens new $255m de facto embassy in Taiwan: FT reports, the US has held a ceremony to mark the opening of its new de facto embassy in Taiwan, in a show of support for the government in Taipei amid mounting Chinese pressure on the self-ruled island. The diplomatic base reflected the “strength” of US-Taiwan ties and would “make possible even greater cooperation for many years to come”, said Marie Royce, assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs, and the highest-ranking US official in attendance on Tuesday.
Friday: June 15 is the deadline for the US to publish the final list of Chinese products subject to $50 billion in tariffs
Aussie-Sino relations: Vast quantities of Australian wine are stuck in Chinese ports as relations between the two countries sour over criticism of Beijing's expanding military and spy network.
Entrance exams in China focus on the thoughts of Xi: Asia Times reports, almost 10 million high school graduates in China sat the nation’s annual college entrance exams earlier this week. The themes and reference materials are always a topic of conversation among parents and the online community.
It is estimated that around 80% of global trade is part of long supply chains, and around 40% of global trade is within companies.
BBC: First direct flight from China lands at Edinburgh Airport
Paris more attractive than London for business investment, says consultancy firm EY: AFP reports, For the first time, Paris is ahead of London as the most attractive European city for businesses to invest in, according to a report by consultancy firm EY. EY convened a panel of 502 international business leaders who concluded that Paris was preferable to London in this respect. This comes as France’s overall attractiveness to investors continued to improve in 2017, for the second year in a row, partly thanks to President Emmanuel Macron’s economic reforms, according to the same report, published on June 11.
Brexit: The best hope for an orderly withdrawal from the European Union lies in all Conservative MPs uniting and backing the government.
MPs debate 15 amendments made by peers to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill.
In Brexit showdown, British PM May faces challenge over 'meaningful vote': Reuters reports, British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a showdown on Tuesday with lawmakers who want power to force her government to go back to the negotiating table if they reject a Brexit deal, testing her plans for leaving the European Union.
UK should not legislate to control children's use of technology, says culture secretary:Guardian reports, Matt Hancock refuses to rule out law to protect minors online, but would stop short of French measures.
Digital and social media firms should be forced to protect children from addiction, UK experts say: Telegraph reports, Social media and online gaming firms should have a statutory “duty of care” to protect children from mental ill health, abuse and addictive behaviour, a coalition of the country’s leading experts demands today. Data amassed by charities, academics and doctors links children’s use of social media and gaming to a range of serious and lasting harms, many of which build gradually over time and go undetected by parents or teachers.
AMERICAN POLITICS
The $1.4 trillion US ‘surplus’ that Trump’s not talking about: Bloomberg reports, the US has a surplus of $20 billion with China and $1.4 trillion with the rest of the world. That’s not a normal trade balance, of course, where the US registered an annual deficit of more than $330 billion with China and about $550 billion with the world last year, but an "aggregate sales surplus" which measures both direct trade and the sales of multinational companies, according to research by Deutsche Bank AG
Senators move to sink Trump’s ZTE deal: WSJ reports, in a rare rebuke of President Donald Trump, Republican Senate leaders set up a vote for this week that would undo the White House deal to revive Chinese telecommunications company ZTE Corp. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was on Capitol Hill late Monday to lobby against the move. But Democratic and Republican lawmakers said that an agreement had been reached to wrap into the National Defense Authorization Act an amendment that would ban ZTE from buying components from US suppliers.
Politico: The 10 names that matter on China policy: Trump’s skepticism of Asia was a key part of his campaign’s identity. These 10 people are dealing with the reality. https://politi.co/2t1F8Nz
The Atlantic - Reihan Salam: Normalizing trade relations with China was a mistake: Lawmakers wanted to turn a potential enemy into a friend—instead, they squandered their leverage, in ways that shortchanged both nations. https://theatln.tc/2t2Slp0
Lawrence Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, had a very mild heart attack Monday.
@CNBC: Paul Manafort will be arraigned Friday on witness tampering charges levied in the latest indictment from special counsel Robert Mueller.
Today: The Fed starts a two-day meeting with an expected rate hike announcement on Wednesday.
LAT: John Cox says Trump will campaign for him in California governor's race
Romney looks to lead GOP’s establishment wing: Politico reports, Mitt Romney, is positioning himself to be a force in the Senate — and a potential counterweight to Trump.
Today: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will eclipse former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) as the longest-serving Republican leader in Senate history.
Inside Obama’s secret meetings with 2020 contenders: Politico reports, still the reluctant leader of the Democratic Party, Obama has been providing counsel to Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and other presidential hopefuls.
ENTERPRISE
Forbes Global 2000: The world's largest public companies http://bit.ly/2y6NFEA
1. ICBC
2. China Construction Bank
3. JP Morgan Chase
4. Berkshire Hathaway
5. Agricultural Bank of China
6. Bank of America
7. Wells Fargo
8. Apple
9. Bank of China
10. Ping An Insurance Group
11. Royal Dutch Shell
12. Toyota Motor
13. ExxonMobil
14. Samsung Electronics
15. AT&T
Grocery chains are being squeezed from all sides: WSJ reports, pressure from rapidly changing consumer tastes, European discounters and Whole Foods will hurt smaller grocery chains most but the big players like Kroger will struggle to grow.
What Caracal Global thinks: Deck: The Future Of Retail - see it here: http://bit.ly/2HowjaB
Uber is considering an acquisition of Motivate, the company behind the Ford GoBike.
Today: A judge will decide whether AT&T can buy Time Warner
Citi issues stark warning on automation of bank jobs: FT reports, Citigroup’s investment bank has suggested that it will shed up to half of its 20,000 technology and operations staff in the next five years, as machines supplant humans at a faster pace.
US tech companies return to Taiwan as China ties sour: Nikkei reports, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google seek cutting-edge products for IoT.
AFP: Shoemaker Louboutin wins EU court battle over red soles
TRENDS
World Cup: why millennials will transform football’s greatest event: The way the game is experienced away from the pitch is the latest powerful example of digital disruption. https://on.ft.com/2l4CqTR
"Developing a first-class enterprise—retailer or tech company or football team or symphony orchestra—is all about developing people.” -- Tom Peters
CULTURE
A company built on a bluff: NY Mag reports for almost 25 years, Shane Smith’s plan for Vice was that, by the time the suckers caught on, he’d never be stuck owning the company he co-founded. https://nym.ag/2t0dDnc
A senior manager once joked that the company’s hiring strategy had a “22 Rule”: “Hire 22-year-olds, pay them $22,000, and work them 22 hours a day.”
Inside the binge factory: Netflix is hiring everybody in and out of Hollywood to make more TV shows than any network ever has, and it already knows which ones you’ll like. http://bit.ly/2sWZnMj
HBDs: George HW Bush is 94 yo today and Chick Corea reaches 77 yo.
Former Olympic skier Bode Miller ‘beyond devastated’ after death of 19-month-old daughter: WP reports, “Never in a million years did we think we would experience a pain like this,” Miller said of the death, which occurred by drowning.
SPORT
A German system that has made them the team of the century: The inside story of the model that has become the envy of the football world. http://bit.ly/2sXkM7W
Germany is not flying to Russia to see the sights, "but to win the tournament," said team director Oliver Bierhoff.
Goldman tips Brazil for World Cup after 1 million simulations: Bloomberg reports, so much for the unpredictable nature of the beautiful game. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reckons Brazil will win its sixth World Cup, basing its forecast on data mining, machine learning, and econometrics. The investment bank is the latest to jump into the excitement before the soccer championship kicks off this week. It used 200,000 statistical models, sifted data on individual players and recent team performance and ran 1 million simulations of the tournament.
The Times: It’s time for Belgium’s golden generation to live up to the hype
Trump letters might be key to bid to host 2026 World Cup: NYT reports, three previously undisclosed letters from President Trump to FIFA have reassured the organization’s members that all fans and teams would be welcome, regardless of US immigration policy.
2026 World Cup: FIFA members will decide on Wednesday whether to vote for a joint US-Canadian-Mexican bid or whether the World Cup -- which will feature 48 teams for the first time -- will return to Africa for only the second time in 2026.
Foreign-owned football clubs:
China: AC Milan, Inter Milan, Southampton, West Bromwich
India: Blackburn
Pakistan: Fulham
Iran: Everton
Qatar: PSG, Malaga
Russia: Chelsea
UAE: Man City
Singapore: Valencia
USA: Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Marseille, Roma