Caracal Business Insider | December 15, 2017

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China Soft Power Fail, Paul Ryan, Mexico, Putin, Amazon, H&M

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 15, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits.

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia


What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ South Korea outraged by journalist beating in China

✔️ Two Canadian Senators’ business venture linked to China

✔️ EU launches next phase of Brexi

✔️ Paul D. Ryan exiting as speaker?

✔️ H&M says to close more stores as customers go online

GEOECONOMICS

World trade order in a wobble as Washington snubs WTO status quo: Reuters reports, the frustration of Roberto Azevedo was evident when, as director general of the World Trade Organization, he summed up the results of a three-day ministerial conference in Buenos Aires in the past week. There were simply none.

China set for slower growth target in 2018: Caixin reports, key policymaking meeting likely to focus on curbing financial risks, reining in debt.

Chinese authorities collecting DNA from all residents of Xinjiang: Guardian reports, officials build a database of iris scans and blood types of everyone aged 12 to 65 in the region home to 11 million Muslim Uighurs.

This is troubling.

How's the soft power campaign working?


South Korea outraged by journalist beating in China: AFP reports, South Korean news media on Friday expressed anger and outrage after Chinese security guards beat and severely injured a South Korean photojournalist covering President Moon Jae-In's visit to Beijing. Opposition parties and internet users joined in, saying the incident epitomised the Asian giant's attitude towards its smaller neighbor.

This is also troubling.

How's the soft power campaign working?


Can China contain bitcoin? It is trying. But the cryptocurrency is bigger than any country, even the one where it has been most popular. https://goo.gl/PQsngB

Caixin: Asian Development Bank to invest in cleaning up Beijing’s air

Two Conservative senators’ business venture linked to China: Two Conservative senators – one with close ties to Beijing – set up a private consulting business this year with partners who are involved in attracting investment from China to Newfoundland and Labrador, corporate records show.

Senator Victor Oh, who recently said he has not conducted any "personal business" in Canada or China since his appointment to the Red Chamber in 2013, formed a St. John's-based company in April with Senator David Wells. Mr. Wells would not say whether Signal Hill Management is pursuing business deals with China-based entities.

J-Alert: One of Japan's Japan’s most popular phrases is the system used to warn citizens of an imminent missile attack.

US offers 'proof' missile fired at Saudi Arabia was Iranian: AFP reports, the United States on Thursday presented pieces of what it said is the missile fired at Saudi Arabia by Houthi militia in Yemen, describing it as conclusive evidence of Iran involvement and its violation of UN resolutions.

Red Dawn in Lapland: Outside reports, Finland shares an 833-mile border with an aggressive and unpredictable neighbor. That proximity led to a major conflict during World War II—the horrific Winter War—and even now it keeps Finns nervous about Russia’s intentions. David Wolman suited up to train with the elite soldiers who will be on the front lines if this cold feud ever gets hot. https://goo.gl/y1iMiE

EU gives UK go-ahead for next phase of Brexit talks: FT reports, negotiations to start on trade after leaders endorse progress on the divorce settlement.

'Congratulations': EU launches next phase of Brexit: Reuters reports, the European Union agreed on Friday to move talks forward with London on Britain's exit from the bloc as leaders warmed to the British premier, but there was little clarity on trade, as well as on some issues already discussed

Theresa May, navigating Brexit, reaches a first finish line: NYT reports, Ms. May lacks many of the qualities that draw a person into politics. She does not enjoy the public spotlight, or have a vision she yearns to share with the country. In a political environment that demands social ease and boundless intellectual confidence — the “tranquil consciousness of effortless superiority” once attributed to Oxford’s Balliol College by one of its famous alumni — she is formal, controlled and extremely private.

“In some ways, she’s old-fashioned English in an era where being old-fashioned and English is no longer acceptable,” said Philip Cowley, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London.

Some Canada firms could move to US amid NAFTA worries: Reuters reports, more a quarter of Canadian firms could move part of their operations to the United States amid uncertainty over the future of the NAFTA trade pact, the nation's export credit agency said on Friday.

Mexico plots open trade course to escape Trump's NAFTA threats: Reuters reports, Trump’s ‘America First’ brand of economic nationalism is pushing Mexico to seek sanctuary in more open commercial ties elsewhere to soften the blow of a possible breakdown of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

"Mexico has lobbied hard to defend NAFTA. The country is heavily dependent on U.S. demand, which soaks up around 80 percent of its goods exports."

Mexico scores big tourism gains after hurricanes devastate Caribbean islands: LAT reports, from October 2017 through March 2018, airlines cut more than 1.2 million seats to Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Cuba and St. Martin. In that same period, they've added more than 600,000 seats on flights to popular Mexican destinations.

The Russia facts are hiding in plain sight
WP - David Ignatius

AFP: Putin says Arctic exploration a priority for Russia

Russia election date = March 18, 2018

I wonder if the Trumpster will join Putin on the hustings?

AMERICAN POLITICS

Tax reform: Republicans expect to unveil the final version of their $1.5 trillion tax measure today.

The Republicans’ problem is bigger than Alabama: A string of defeats points to weaknesses beyond one tainted candidate and to trouble in 2018 and beyond. https://goo.gl/iQegmn

"Voters who disapprove of Trump have reliably cast ballots against Republican candidates in each of the three major elections this year: In Alabama, 93 percent of those who disapproved of Trump voted for Jones; in Virginia, 87 percent voted for Gillespie’s Democratic opponent, Ralph Northam."

8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicanshttps://goo.gl/tY8UG5

"Among those 65 years old (and older), Moore won by 19 points. Among all other voters -- aged 18-64 -- he lost by eight."

Paul Ryan sees his wild Washington journey coming to an end: Politico reports, he felt he was ‘made for this moment.’ But now, on the verge of achieving his long-sought legislative dream, he’s got his eyes on the exits.

Paul D. Ryan exiting as speaker? It only makes sense.
WP - Aaron Blake

"Trump has already turned Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) into a pariah with a newly imperiled majority, and it seems only a matter of time before the House's failure to meet Trump's expectations causes him to truly turn his fire on Ryan too."

@politico: #BREAKING: House Speaker Paul Ryan considering retirement after 2018 midterms http://politi.co/2o58WcR 

@POLITICOMag: Paul Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker


@CNNPolitics: 5 reasons why Paul Ryan should definitely quit in 2018 | Analysis by CNN's Chris Cillizza http://cnn.it/2AqHh7X

@FoxBusiness: @SpeakerRyan aides dismiss reports of possible 2018 resignation


Net Neutrality: The FCC voted to dismantle rules governing how internet-service providers treat traffic, a move that is likely to empower cable and wireless providers.

"We are helping consumers and promoting competition.” --F.C.C. Chairman Ajit Pai

Recommendations signal major changes coming to Iowa’s Caucuses https://goo.gl/7vXbsN

ENTERPRISE

NYT: Uber under criminal investigation, Justice Dept. confirms in letter to court

"It is the first public confirmation by the Department of Justice of a federal inquiry into the San Francisco-based ride-hailing company."

Nordic Choice Hotels tests blockchain distribution for Stockholm property: Skift reports, hotels, like airlines, currently rely on the global distribution systems and other intermediaries for distribution. Bypassing them could be an attractive proposition if it would lower costs.

Google’s return to China foretells a global race to deliver AI: MIT Tech Review reports, with a new research center in Beijing, Google hopes to strengthen its global position in offering AI services through the cloud.

Transneft says its computers were used for mining cryptocurrency: Reuters reports, computers at Transneft have been used for the unauthorized manufacture, or "mining", of the cryptocurrency Monero, a vice-president of the Russian pipeline operator said.

Disney-21st Century Fox deal ensures that the future of television and movie viewing is online.

H&M shares slide after unexpected sales fall: FT reports, Swedish fashion retailer has been struggling with a shift to online shopping.

AFP: H&M says to close more stores as customers go online

Reuters: Siemens partners with Amazon as it ramps up industrial software platform


Amazon wants it all.

TRENDS

Facebook invites HR pros to steal its sexual harassment policy.

AOL Instant Messenger made social media what it is today: The once popular messaging platform goes dark this week, but its legacy of instant communication is here to stay. https://goo.gl/3UrMwc

How a Welsh jeans firm became a cult global brandhttps://goo.gl/Pk19KB

CULTURE

Breaking: Harry and Meghan to marry on May 19, 2018.

SOTD

Recomposed by Max Richter: Vivaldi, The Four Seasons, Spring 1 https://goo.gl/wtL6XN

SPORT

What did the Reds show Shohei Ohtani? http://cin.ci/2AgOrvc

Creator versus disruptor: Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho battle for the fate of the universe (and the Premier League). https://goo.gl/GNkUMQ

Caracal Business Insider | December 15, 2017

Tory Rebellion, Taiwan, Tax Reform, Twenty-First Century Fox, Tragically Hip

Caracal Business Insider | Daily
December 14, 2017
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Caracal Business Insider = Global Business News at the Intersection of Politics + Policy + Profits.

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia


What Caracal Global is watching today:

✔️ Disney deal with Twenty-First Century Fox

✔️ Republicans reach a deal on tax legislation

✔️ UK PM Theresa May suffers parliamentary defeat on her Brexit plans

✔️ Dems lead GOP by 15 points in generic 2018 ballot

✔️ Austraila-China relations | China summons Australia ambassador

GEOECONOMICS

Global conflicts to watch in 2018 https://goo.gl/zEE3Z7

"The US is now the most unpredictable actor in the world today."

India, US combine to stymie WTO ministerial meeting: Nikkei reports, Washington's blocking of appellate body appointments may worsen trade rows.

LAT: Wary of Trump, some foreign-born tech workers are choosing Canada instead of Silicon Valley

Tory rebels inflict Brexit defeat on May: FT reports, MPs back an amendment to withdrawal bill giving parliament a vote on the final deal.

AFP: British lawmakers defy May, give parliament final say on Brexit deal

Government loses key vote after Tory rebellion: BBC reports, the UK government has been narrowly defeated in a key vote on its Brexit bill after a rebellion by 11 Tory MPs. In a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May, MPs voted to give Parliament a legal guarantee of a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels. The government had argued this would jeopardize its chances of delivering a smooth departure from the EU.

Soft Brexit looking more and more likely with an extended transition period beyond March 2019.

For UK politics, it is the first time that PM May has been defeated on her own business in the Commons.


NYT: Tillerson says embassy in Jerusalem is at least three years away

AFP: South Korean President in China to mend ties


Taiwan eyes 'important role' in alternative Asian sphere of influence: Nikkei reports, Taiwan is turning to Southeast Asia and beyond as part of a strategy to reduce its economic dependence upon China, its biggest trading and investment partner. The island economy also hopes to identify itself more closely with an emerging "Indo-Pacific" bloc of Asian economies.

Taiwan feeling whiplash after a turbulent year of Trump: Nikkei reports, an initial US interest faded as president drew closer to China.

Beijing sends warning to US with a new aircraft carrier to patrol South China Sea: The Times reports, Beijing has warned that its new aircraft carrier will “thwart” attempts by foreign forces to seize disputed territories in the South China Sea as it objected to the US signing a deal that will allow American ships to be deployed to Taiwan. Trump this week signed a National Defense Authorization Act that allows the US and Taiwan to deploy ships into each other’s waters.

China summons Australia ambassador over foreign influence row: The Times reports, in a further escalation of deteriorating relations between the two countries, Jan Adams, the Australian ambassador to China, was asked to explain Canberra’s proposed new legislation that aims to counter attempts by overseas governments to influence Australia’s affairs. The meeting is understood to have involved a “robust” discussion.

Why Europe need not kowtow to China: With a modicum of confidence, EU nations can set the terms of the relationship.
FT - Philip Stephens

Italy declares a state of emergency after a deadly gas explosion in Austria: Guardian reports, snow-hit southern Europe could face energy shortages after authorities warned that Austrian pipelines were likely to be out of action for days following an explosion and fire that ripped through a main gas hub near Vienna. 

Telegraph: Vladimir Putin says it's 'not my job' to create rivals for his 2018 election bid, as he hosts annual press conference

Putin says US gripped by fabricated spymania, praises Trump: Reuters reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursdaythe United States was in the grip of a fabricated spymania whipped up by President Donald Trump's opponents but he thought battered U.S.-Russia relations would recover one day.

@BBCDanielS: Annual Vladimir Putin press conference. Situation normal. 

@georgegalloway: Putin is right now in a 5-hour press Conference in front of 1000 journalists, no holds barred. It is a dazzling display that no western leader could dream of. It’s live on @RT_com


@bpolitics: Putin praises Trump at his annual press conference: “Look at the markets, how they’ve risen” https://bloom.bg/2ysEyJd 



AMERICAN POLITICS

Senate and House GOP reach a deal on tax bill: NYT reports, the agreement on a consensus bill between House and Senate Republicans keeps the party on track for final votes next week on the most sweeping tax rewrite in decades.

Trump's eldest son testifies to Senate committee in Russia probe: Reuters reports, Trump's eldest son met with the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday as part of the panel's investigation into Russia, the 2016 U.S. election and whether his father's election campaign colluded with Moscow.

Doubting the intelligence, Trump pursues Putin and leaves a Russian threat unchecked: WP reports, nearly a year into his presidency, Trump continues to reject the evidence that Russia waged an unprecedented assault on a pillar of American democracy and supported his run for the White House. Interviews with more than 50 U.S. officials show that the personal insecurities of the president have impaired the government’s response to a national security threat, with Trump resisting or attempting to roll back efforts to hold Moscow to account as he tries to forge a partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ellis Insight on the control of the US Senate and Election 2018: "But, the most important occurrence accompanying the Jones victory is that the Democrats now have a path to the majority in 2018, something that didn’t exist before last night’s Alabama special election."

There are ten Democratic Senators on next year’s ballot in states that Trump carried.

The Hill: Democrats lead GOP by 15 points in generic 2018 ballot

The Monmouth University Polling Institute survey has 51 percent of registered voters saying they would vote for or lean toward a Democratic candidate with only 36 percent of voters said they would vote or lean Republican.

This is a total disaster for the GOP as Election 2018 hasn't officially begun.

2018 looks like a Democratic wave
WP - Alan Abramowitz

Reuters: Federal Communications Commission set to reverse net neutrality rules

WSJ: Nearly 5 million Americans in default on student loans


With California wildfires, insurers’ losses keep spiraling higher: WSJ reports, the insurance industry faces one of its biggest natural-disaster bills after year of hurricanes, earthquakes, and wildfires.

ENTERPRISE

FT: Disney-Fox changes power balance in Hollywood

Disney buys much of Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox indeal that will reshape Hollywood: LAT reports, under the deal, Disney would take over the 20th Century Fox movie and television studio, Fox’s 22 regional sports channels, the cable entertainment brands FX and National Geographic, and Fox’s portfolio of international operations.

Walt Disney Co. said it would buy select assets of 21st Century Fox for $52.4 billion in stock.

The move makes Disney a true streaming competitor to services like Netflix and Amazon.

Bob Iger extends contract as CEO of entertainment company until 2021.


Google AdWords adds targeting by phone number, mailing address: AdAge reports, Google has expanded the consumer-targeting capabilities of its AdWords platform to let marketers use phone numbers and mailing addresses to reach their right people.

US broadband groups prepare for net neutrality roll back: FT reports, the move allows companies to open ‘fast lanes’ allowing preferential treatment for content owners who pay more.

How 2017 became a turning point for tech giants: Five or 10 years from now, we will come to regard 2017 as a turning point. Why? Because this year, for the first time, tech giants began to grudgingly accept that they have some responsibility to the offline world. The scope of that responsibility, though, is another matter entirely.
NYT - Farhad Manjoo

"This was a terrible year for the tech industry."

Panasonic is considering jointly developing batteries for electric vehicles with Toyota.

"Bitcoin is young people saying we have no faith in our institutions." --L2 founder Scott Galloway

Skift: Mafengwo raises $133 million as a booking app for Chinese Millennials

Business Insider Inc. drops ‘Business’ from its name: WSJ reports, in January, the company will begin doing business as Insider Inc., doubling down on its plan to create new coverage verticals on social media and elsewhere.

Retailers still haven't caught up to Millennials: The children of baby boomers don't seek personal fulfillment through shopping.
Bloomberg View - Barry Ritholtz

TRENDS

Instagram: You can now "follow" a hashtag on the platform the same way you would follow an account.

CULTURE

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”: LAT film critic Justin Chang calls it “easily its most exciting iteration in decades — the first flat-out terrific ‘Star Wars’ movie since 1980’s ‘The Empire Strikes Back.’”

Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inductees: Bon Jovi, the Cars, Dire Straits, the Moody Blues, Nina Simone, and gospel singer-guitarist Sister Rosetta Tharpe are headed to Cleveland.

Pitchfork’s 50 best albums of 2017 https://goo.gl/hMbtr6

All 218 U2 Songs, ranked from worst to best https://goo.gl/6kFpwN

Decider: "Long Time Running" and The Tragically Hip: Saying goodbye to my border-town band https://goo.gl/EGVPca

The documentary and concert film "Long Time Running" is now available on Netflix - go watch it and then watch it again. 

SPORT

The NBA has surpassed the NFL as the league of America’s future: The NFL may still be America’s most popular sport, but it’s become increasingly clear that football embodies the spirit of a nation as it once was - not as it is today.
Guardian - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

LAT: Lakers brass asks LaVar Ball to tone down the rhetoric

AFP: 'I broke no rules' says Froome after 'adverse' Vuelta drugs test


Kirk Cousins and other NFL players say they’d want to take CTE tests while active: WP reports, while reliable tests in living patients for the neurodegenerative disease have yet to be developed, the Redskins quarterback said he would retire if he learned he had CTE.

WP: Roger Goodell intends to retire as NFL commissioner by end of extension in 2024, league says