Trump's Tariffs + American Allies

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Last Friday, Marc Ross, founder of Caracal Global, joined Iain Begg, a London School of Economics professor, and LIU Baocheng, the director of University of International Business and Economics, on CGTN's World Insight program to discuss the Trump administration's plan to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, Canada, and Mexico.

World Insight Anchor Tian Wei lead a discussed focused on Trump's attempt to protect American jobs and how this action is risking relations with Washington's top allies.

A great look at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and American politics with perspectives from Brussels, Beijing, and DC.

You can watch the 18-minute discussion below.

Trade Tensions, Tiananmen, South China Sea, GitHub, Motivate, Downtown

Marc Ross Daily June.png

Trade Tensions, Tiananmen, South China Sea, GitHub, Motivate, Downtown

Marc Ross Daily
June 4, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Trade tensions intensify as allies rebuke US, testing Trump ahead of G7

✔️ US-China $100bn trade war nears as talks end without deal

✔️ Decades after Tiananmen, China has tightened control

✔️ France, Britain to sail warships in contested South China Sea

✔️ Microsoft is reportedly buying GitHub

ROSS IN THE NEWS

CGTNWorldInsight060118.png


Last Friday, I joined Iain Begg, a London School of Economics professor, and LIU Baocheng, the director of University of International Business and Economics, on CGTN's World Insight program to discuss the Trump administration's plan to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. 

World Insight Anchor Tian Wei lead a discussed focused on Trump's attempt to protect American jobs and how this action is risking relations with Washington's top allies.

A great look at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and American politics with perspectives from Brussels, Beijing, and DC.

You can watch the 18-minute discussion here: http://bit.ly/2sC9WEn

GEOECONOMICS

Trade tensions intensify as allies rebuke US, testing Trump ahead of G7: WSJ reports, the Trump administration showed no sign of backing down from restrictive tariffs in the face of pushback from allies and China over the weekend, isolating the US and complicating the president’s meeting later this week with leaders of Washington’s staunchest partners. Top finance officials from the Group of Seven leading nations met in Canada, where the non-US members issued a public rebuke of Washington’s new steel and aluminum tariffs. Those six—the host Canada, along with France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK—adopted a formal statement Saturday expressing their “unanimous concern and disappointment.”

WP: Trump thinks he’s saving trade. The rest of the world thinks he’s blowing it up.

“Trump’s actions create a feeling of chaos and lawlessness. America is no longer abiding by basic due process and commitments made to other nations,” said Jennifer Hillman, a former commissioner at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Trump and allies set for showdown over trade: Bloomberg reports, Trump is headed for a showdown with America’s allies at a Group of Seven summit this week in Quebec, with the European Union and Canada threatening retaliatory measures unless he reverses course on new steel and aluminum levies. Trump changes his mind often enough that US allies and rivals alike hope he’ll do just that on tariffs in the next few days. An all-out trade war may become unavoidable if he doesn’t.

Trump’s trade war demands a robust response: Theresa May is left looking weaker and needier than ever, hoping that simply being polite will somehow see us through.
The Times - Alex Massie

FT: US-China $100bn trade war nears as talks end without deal

Reuters: Talks end with China warning trade benefits at risk if
US imposes tariffs

AP: China says trade deals are off if US raises tariffs

Bloomberg: China opens Europe charm offensive as Trump stokes trade dispute

Decades after Tiananmen, China has tightened control
: FT reports, democracy advocates say hopes that a more liberal system would evolve have evaporated.

China’s ZTE was built to spy and bribe, court documents allege: Sydney Morning Herald reports, ZTE, the Chinese telecommunications company bidding for major contracts in Australia, and at the centre of Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing, was established partly as a front for military intelligence and has been linked to corruption in 18 countries, according to explosive court documents filed in the US.

China increasingly challenges American dominance of science: WP reports, the United States spends half a trillion dollars a year on scientific research — more than any other nation on Earth — but China has pulled into second place, with the European Union third and Japan a distant fourth. China is on track to surpass the United States by the end of this year, according to the National Science Board.

Reuters: Japan looks to launch driverless car system in Tokyo by 2020

SCMP: France, Britain to sail warships in contested South China Sea to challenge Beijing

SCMP: 
US will ‘compete vigorously’ in South China Sea, Mattis warns Beijing

AP: US-led NATO exercise starts in Baltics, Poland


"Canada takes part in Sabre Strike 18, while non-NATO member Israel participates for the first time"

Trump’s envoy to Germany wants to ‘empower’ conservatives — but he doesn’t appear to mean Merkel: WP reports, Richard Grenell’s remarks leave room for interpretation, but the comments were widely criticized both in the United States and in Europe for politicizing diplomacy with a core U.S. ally and as a further blow to transatlantic relations.

US ambassador seeks to ‘empower’ Europe’s right wing: FT reports, Trump loyalist Grenell breaks diplomatic etiquette by taking position on party politics.

AFP: Turkey inflation surges again to over 12 percent

The Times: Revealed: plans for Doomsday Brexit: Food, petrol and medicines would run out in a no-deal scenario. http://bit.ly/2sEuuMf

NYT: Brexit nightmare: 17-mile traffic jams at the Dover border

Reuters: Ireland gives Britain two weeks to produce Brexit border proposals


AMERICAN POLITICS

Reuters: Trump can probably pardon himself, but has no plan to: Giuliani

How Mnuchin keeps a steady grip in a tug of war on trade
: NYT reports, this weekend, some of those countries hit back, as finance ministers from the six other nations attending the Group of 7 meeting in Canada issued an unusual rebuke over America’s trading practices and the use of tariffs against allies. The statement said that tariffs “undermine open trade and confidence in the global economy” and called on Mr. Mnuchin to make their worries known to Mr. Trump. The scolding laid bare the uncomfortably familiar spot that Mr. Mnuchin finds himself in: trying to be a voice of moderation and a statesman in an administration that sees diplomatic norms and protocols as signs of weakness.

Bloomberg: Kudlow says don't blame Trump as China warns of trade pullback

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow likened the ongoing trade spat between the United States and Canada to a "family quarrel," and said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau overreacted to the US decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Canada. 

US businesses express alarm as tariffs push up steel costs: FT reports, users of raw materials say jobs and investment put at risk.

Victoria Guida (@vtg2): A tariff is actually the U.S. government charging a U.S. buyer to buy a foreign good. It's not charging the foreign country anything.

Trump goes it alone: running the White House not like a president, but a CEO: Guardian reports, from North Korea to Kim Kardashian, the US president has dispensed with the ‘adults in the room’ and is going it alone.

NBC: Joe Biden steams into midterm campaigns as 2020 question looms

The former vice president is likely to decide on another presidential bid by year's end.

Inside tip, he's running. 

ENTERPRISE

AFP: Societe Generale, Unicredit say no plans to merge

Reuters: China's Xiaomi plans $3 billion CDRs in blockbuster July IPO: sources


AFP: Bayer to ditch Monsanto name after mega-merger

"The company name is and will remain Bayer. Monsanto will no longer be a company name," chief executive Werner Baumann told journalists during a telephone conference.

Nikkei: Nissan to halt development of new diesel engines

"Another automaker clearly signals the industry's shift to electric vehicles"

Google will not renew a contract with the Pentagon for artificial intelligence work when the deal expires next year. 

Apple kicks off its annual developers conference today.

“Emulate George Washington, not Vladimir Putin,” an investor told Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook’s ill-tempered annual shareholder meeting.

CNBC: Bitcoin has found a bottom after plunging 60% from December highs, says technician

Microsoft is reportedly buying GitHub, the world's biggest computer-code repository.

Lyft is said to be in talks to buy Motivate, the owner of New York City’s bike-sharing program. 

Marc Jacobs lost his way in fashion, and put the kibosh on his label’s IPO in the process.

Sears has announced plans to close 72 more stores this year, including 48 Sears stores and 15 Kmarts.

TRENDS

Lessons in disruption from the leaders of luxury: Creatives, investors and chief executives joined the FT this week in Venice to discuss the new rules of business. https://on.ft.com/2sFcX6G

CULTURE

WP: Do the dismal box-office returns of ‘Solo’ signal a problem for the Star Wars franchise?

No.

OTD: In 1940 the Allied evacuation from Dunkirk came to an end.

[Wednesday] Today: 74th anniversary of D-Day

Farm-to-table in the shadow of downtown Detroithttps://nyti.ms/2xxHr0n

The 10 best musical moments in The Americanshttp://bit.ly/2sFXMtU

The Atlantic: Why no one answers their phone anymorehttps://theatln.tc/2HjosWO

Telephone culture is disappearing. 

SPORT

WP: Steph Curry’s record night gives Warriors a 2-0 series lead

Warriors in two. The series is over.

Hockey: Game 4 of the Stanley Cup finals is tonight. The Capitals lead the Golden Knights 2 to 1.

China won’t play in this World Cup. It still hopes to profit. NYT reports, leaping into the void left by the West gives Chinese companies a way to promote their brands globally — and to flaunt their patriotism. Wanda, one of China’s largest entertainment and movie-theater companies, signed a $150 million global partnership with FIFA at the height of the corruption scandal two years ago — a deal that Wanda’s chief executive, Wang Jianlin, said hinged on FIFA’s woes. “Because some Western companies dropped out, we got the opportunity,” Wang told reporters at the time. “If more Chinese brother companies become FIFA sponsors like Wanda, we will join forces to advance the interests of China soccer.” Over the past 18 months, brothers like Hisense (electronics), Vivo (smartphones), Mengniu (dairy products) and Yadea (electric scooters) have answered the call.

"Beijing has made no secret of its soccer ambitions. Over the past few years, President Xi Jinping has vowed to turn China into a “soccer superpower” that will host, qualify for and, by 2050, hopefully win the World Cup. The last goal seems almost ludicrously unattainable: China’s men’s team languishes at No. 73 in the world rankings, behind juggernauts like Curaçao and Cape Verde."

US-China, EU-US, Italy, Facebook, Cincinnati, Martin Sorrell, EVs, K-Pop

Marc Ross Daily June.png

US-China, EU-US, Italy, Facebook, Cincinnati, Martin Sorrell, EVs, K-Pop

Marc Ross Daily
May 30, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here
https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ US imposing 25% tariff of Chinese goods, apply investment restrictions in June

✔️ China has a $43,000 wealth gap problem

✔️ Italian deadlock sets stage for fierce battle over the EU

✔️ Facebook's new political ad rules could upend June 5th primaries

✔️ De Beers has introduced a new brand that includes synthetic diamonds

ROSS RANT

Trump announces new tariffs and investment restrictions on Chinese technology

A lot can happen in 9 days.

“We are putting the trade war on hold,” Mnuchin said on the political news show, “Fox News Sunday” on May 20.

Mnuchin made the statement that the US and China were stepping back from a possible trade war after two days of talks that produced “meaningful progress.”

It appears that progress has stalled and the hold is off.

Yesterday, the Trump White House announced new tariffs and investment restrictions would be placed on Chinese technology as "China has consistently taken advantage of the American economy with practices that undermine fair and reciprocal trade."

The statement announces the US will impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods containing “industrially significant technology.”

The White House said the tariff would cover goods related to the “Made in China 2025” program. The full list of imports that to receive the duties will be announced by June 15.

The White House also says the US is planning new investment restrictions and export controls.

The announcement comes as the administration negotiates with China on a broad range of issues - from North Korea to commercial relations, plus Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is expected to travel to China on June 2-4.

GEOECONOMICS

US imposing 25% tariff of Chinese goods, apply investment restrictions in June: Fox Business, despite cooling tensions between the world’s two largest economies, the White House said Tuesday it will impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion of imported goods from China that “contain industrially significant technology" next month. This includes products related to the “Made in China 2025” program. The final list will be announced by June 15 with tariffs imposed shortly after.

WSJ: US moves to finalize tariffs, investment restrictions on China

"US will release final list of tariffs on $50 billion in imports from China by June 15."

AP: China says Trump hurts credibility with tariffs

Bloomberg: China slams Trump's ‘flip-flop’ on tariffs as trade spat worsens

White House move raises trade tensions with China
: The Hill reports, the White House announced Tuesday it will move forward with plans to punish China with hefty tariffs and investment restrictions, steps that ramped up tensions between Washington and Beijing on trade. US-China Business Council President John Frisbie said he would prefer if the US and China put the threat of tariffs on hold while the nations engage in trade talks. “We need solutions that will put the trade relationship on a sounder path for mutual prosperity, not sanctions that will do more harm than good. We encourage both sides to use the coming weeks to achieve that goal,” Frisbie.

FT: White House tariff move reignites US trade war with China

WSJ reports the White House’s surprise decision to move forward with tariffs and other sanctions against China threatens to derail trade talks scheduled for this weekend.

China has a $43,000 wealth gap problem: Bloomberg reports, China is no monolith. While residents in Shanghai and Beijing are almost as well off as those in Switzerland by some income measures, parts of the country live more like they were in Guatemala. The wide disparity puts some residents at the cutting edge of the developed world, stepping into battery-powered cars that silently ease down city streets, or as consumers facing advertising choices generated by image-recognition technology. Across China, close to 1 billion consumers shop or pay for purchases using apps on their smartphones. At the other extreme are rural towns where water still needs to be carried on foot from a well.

China’s carbon emissions set for fastest growth in 7 years: FT reports, a blow for global climate change effort as Greenpeace data show 4% rise in the first quarter.

WP - John Pomfret and Peter Fuhrman OpEd: China aims for independence as the rift with America and Europe widens. Will it work? Amid shifting noises and conflicting signals from the United States, confusion in Beijing over President Trump’s policies is giving way to a realization that China is now operating in a different, less welcoming world. By choice as much as duress, China will move toward greater economic and technological self-reliance. Can China become equal in those spheres? Few questions loom larger in China’s future, or ours. https://wapo.st/2shS2Hp

Why a Trump trade war is more likely with the EU than China: The signs are that it is going to be a long hot summer for transatlantic relations. https://on.ft.com/2Jk5Evs

EU-US trade relations: European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom is set to meet US counterparts Wilbur Ross and Robert Lighthizer in Paris, two days before a temporary reprieve from U.S. metal tariffs is due to expire.

The Telegraph: Tories must reform capitalism to win back young voters, Philip Hammond to argue

Soros wants a second: George Soros has set out the case for Best for Britain’s campaign to force a second referendum on Brexit. The billionaire had already put £400,00 of his own money into the project and has now added another £100,000 to defy his critics.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will urge Trump to avoid protesters in central London during his UK visit in July and instead meet her at her country residence.

Italy: The Five Star Movement is renewing its attempt to form a coalition government, while the League said it hoped to return to an election as soon as possible. 

Italian deadlock sets stage for fierce battle over the EU: Populists will fight a snap election on the choice between local control and the ECB.
FT - Tony Barber

Today’s cartoon for The Daily Telegraph by Blower.

Plastic ban: The European Commission has proposed the world's biggest ban on single-use plastic products, from straws to cutlery, in order to save the environment from excessive plastic pollution.

Colombia is headed for its most divisive presidential race in decades that could upset a historic peace deal or see a reversal of business-friendly policies.

Top 10 paid politicians in the OECD:

Malcolm Turnbull - Prime Minister Australia $527,854

Alain Berset - President Switzerland $482,958

Donald Trump - President United States $400,000

Angela Merkel - Chancellor Germany $369,727

Jacinda Ardern - Prime Minister New Zealand $339,862

Sebastian Kurz - Chancellor Austria $328,584

Xavier Bettel - Prime Minister Luxembourg $278,035

Justin Trudeau - Prime Minister Canada $267,041

Charles Michel - Prime Minister Belgium $262,964

Lars Løkke Rasmussen - Prime Minister Denmark $249,774


AMERICAN POLITICS

NYT: Trump asked Sessions to retain control of Russia inquiry after his recusal

Ross goes from Trump ‘killer’ to ‘past his prime’
: Politico reports, the commerce secretary has been increasingly marginalized in the administration in recent months amid jockeying over protectionism.

The Hill: Election fears recede for House Republicans

"House Republicans left town for the Memorial Day recess feeling more optimistic about their chances in the midterm elections, putting a spring in their step as they head toward the heat of the campaign season."

Independent voters now outnumber Republicans in California

62 + 42: VA freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville) announced he would not seek a second term. CD VA-5 now becomes the 62nd House open seat and the 42nd that the Republicans must defend.

NYT: Trump’s summer campaign priority: Target red-state Democratic senators

"In the coming weeks, the strategy will also take Mr. Trump to North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia — all deeply red states he won handily in 2016 with endangered Democratic senators."

"Mexico is going to pay for the wall and they are going to enjoy it," President Trump said at a rally in Nashville.

Today: Trump hosts White House Sports and Fitness Day

Facebook's new political ad rules could upend June 5th primaries: The Verge reports, Facebook introduced new disclosure rules for political advertisements this week designed to block bad actors from meddling in elections. But in the meantime, the rules are blocking legitimate candidates from buying Facebook ads - and at least one congressional candidate in Mississippi says it could tip the election toward his opponent.

Harvard study estimates thousands died in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria: WP reports, at least 4,645 people died as a result of Hurricane Maria and its devastation across Puerto Rico last year, according to a new Harvard study released Tuesday, an estimate that far exceeds the official government death toll, which stands at 64.

TMZ Goes MAGA: How Harvey Levin’s gossip empire became Trump’s best friend: The president and the king of gossip have a relationship that’s paid off for them both. Never more so than when Trump almost lost the election. https://thebea.st/2kyTVeP

Kim Kardashian is reportedly expected at the White House today to discuss prison policy with Trump and Jared Kushner. 

ENTERPRISE

Google is set to host its first Asian Demo Day in Shanghai this September: Google’s Demo Day involves the tech giant identifying exceptional startups and working with them in over several weeks in order to perfect a pitch to investors on the day itself. To date, startups that have pitched successfully at previous Demo Days have raised over $259m between them. So far, all Demo Days have taken place in either North America or Europe, making the Asian Demo Day a clear sign that Google believes the east - and especially China - is where future innovation will flow from. In recent months, Google has signed a deal with Tencent, acquired HTC’s design team, and confirmed plans for an AI lab in Beijing.

Google has partnered with Xiaomi in an effort to bring its AR and VR technology to China.

The $1 trillion club: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are all vying to be the first company to join the four comma club.

BTW -  ZTE enjoys a market share of less than 1 percent of the Asian smartphone market.

Coca-Cola Co.'s new product, Lemon-Do, is a citrus-tinged alcoholic drink in a can - you can only find it in Japan.

Oceanalpha’s autonomous boat is going after the cargo shipping industry. 

Daimler led a $175 million fund-raising round for Taxify, a European rival to Uber.

Bird, an electric scooter sharing start-up, is reportedly raising money at a $1 billion valuation.

The Big Four: The accounting firms of Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young,  and KPMG audit 97 percent of US companies, and every one of the top 100 corporations in the UK. 

Fortune: Why Nordstrom is betting on high-touch tech: No department-store chain has embraced technology more aggressively. But will that strategy help Nordstrom avoid the slump in higher-end retail? https://for.tn/2kBDHRP

Martin Sorrell is staging a comeback just six weeks after being ousted from WPP, using his same 1980s formula that transformed a shell company into the world’s biggest advertising group. The ad guru is investing £40M of his own money into London-listed Derriston Capital.

De Beers has introduced a new brand that includes synthetic diamonds. It takes about 500 hours to produce a diamond in a lab.

Fortune: Bayer wins US antitrust approval for its $66 billion takeover of Monsanto

TRENDS

35: Percentage of graduates in China and India who hold a science, tech or engineering degree.

Trade creates losers. Here’s how to help them: Addressing hardships requires both redistribution and regulation.
Economist - Swati Dhingra

EVs: The global fleet of electric vehicles is likely to more than triple to 13 million by the end of the decade from 3.7 million last year, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency.

CULTURE

K-Pop: The South Korean boy band BTS' album, "Love Yourself: Tear," just hit No. 1 in the United States. 

Richard Nixon's Western White House is back up for sale at $63.5 million: LAT reports, dubbed La Casa Pacifica by the 37th US president, the walled estate sits in a gated enclave on an isolated bluff that overlooks the ocean and a popular surfing spot. Panoramic views can extend 60 miles to San Clemente Island.

SOTD

Calvin Harris + Dua Lipa - One Kiss (Lyric Video)http://bit.ly/2kAHNdd

SPORT

Cincinnati awarded MLS expansion club, will start play in 2019: MLS reports, on the strength of record-breaking soccer attendances and the completion of an innovative plan to build a new, state-of-the-art soccer stadium, Cincinnati has been awarded a Major League Soccer expansion team, Commissioner Don Garber announced on Tuesday. The club will begin MLS play in the 2019 season. The expansion side, which will continue as FC Cincinnati when it joins MLS, plans to play at Nippert Stadium until 2021, when a new 21,000-seat soccer stadium in Cincinnati’s West End neighborhood is expected to be completed.

NBA Finals: Vegas is bullish on the Golden State Warriors winning the NBA Finals over the Cavs. The Land open as 12-point favorites in Game 1 over The Land.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors will face each other in the NBA Finals for a fourth consecutive year. 

Nigeria says Nike has had record-breaking pre-orders for its World Cup jersey: Quartz reports, the team’s World Cup jersey has already received three million pre-orders. 

Major League Baseball attendance is headed to its lowest average in 15 years. 

@SportsCenter: Serena Williams has won her first grand slam match since giving birth to her daughter, defeating Kristyna Pliskova, 7-6, 6-4

Spellers finals: The Scripps National Spelling Bee began this week with a record 516 spellers, aged 8 to 15.