Would I lie to you? Would I lie to you honey? Now would I say something that wasn't true?

Would I lie to you? Would I lie to you honey? Now would I say something that wasn't true?

Marc Ross Daily
July 18, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ May’s Brexit plan narrowly survives in parliament

✔️ Frankfurt losing edge in Brexit race as Paris gains ground

✔️ Chinese consumers ready to boycott US goods in trade war

✔️ Besieged Trump says he misspoke on Russia

✔️ Stripe is getting into book publishing

GEOECONOMICS

"The International Monetary Fund is keeping its forecast for global economic growth unchanged at 3.9 percent this year"

Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the landslide winner of Mexico’s elections, may not take office until December, but he plans to start advancing his agenda immediately.

May’s Brexit plan narrowly survives in parliament: WSJ reports, Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan narrowly passed in parliament, a struggle that casts doubt on whether she can negotiate an exit deal with the European Union that is acceptable to British lawmakers.

The Times: Back me or we hold an election, May told Brexit rebels

Hague says no to number two: Former Tory leader William Hague writes in the Telegraph that a second referendum is a “beguiling idea” that would prove “completely disastrous” for Britain.

Bloomberg: Frankfurt losing edge in Brexit race as Paris gains ground

160: A stockpile of gold estimated to be worth $160 billion is locked away in Hindu temples across India.

QOTD: “On the question of whom to believe, whom not to believe, and whether it’s possible to believe at all: you cannot believe anyone." -- Valdimir Putin

Reuters: Greenland plans office in Beijing to boost trade ties with China

Many Chinese consumers ready to boycott US goods in trade war: FT reports, the survey found that 54 percent of 2,000 respondents in 300 cities across China would “probably” or “definitely” stop buying US-branded goods “in the event of a trade war”.

USA Today - China's US Ambassador Cui Tiankai OpEd: Donald Trump's trade war is unjustified and unfair

"Donald Trump's plan to levy tariffs on China is unjustified and will not be effective. There will be no winner in this trade war. Only losers."

Latest sign of China’s slowdown: A technology cash crunch: NYT reports, China is struggling with weakened investment and household consumption and increasing corporate and local government defaults. It could present Xi Jinping with his most difficult problem since he became the country’s top leader in 2013. Will China’s 40 years of continuous economic expansion stop under his rule? If so, how will 1.4 billion Chinese react when they realize that the country’s upward trajectory is coming to an end?

China built an army of influence agents in the US: The Russians may be getting all the attention for influencing American opinion and policy. But Beijing has been at it for decades. https://thebea.st/2utVbVA

AMERICAN POLITICS

‘She was like a novelty’: How an alleged covert Russian agent gained access to elite conservative circles: WP reports, Maria Butina, who was indicted this week, befriended leaders of the National Rifle Association and the Conservative Political Action Conference, and sidled up to Republican presidential candidates. But by August 2016, the FBI was watching, officials said.

Facing heavy criticism, Trump now says he misspoke over Putin-friendly remarks: LAT reports, in his attempt to walk back his remarks, Trump said he accepts the consensus of American intelligence agencies that Russia interfered in the election.

WSJ: Trump reverses on election meddling, backs US intelligence findings

NYT: Besieged Trump says he misspoke on Russia

Trump says he accepts evidence of Russian meddling: FT reports, president says he misspoke when he sided with Putin over US intelligence.

George Will: This sad, embarrassing wreck of a manhttps://wapo.st/2zJnx3r

"America’s child president had a play date with a KGB alumnus, who surely enjoyed providing daycare. It was a useful, because illuminating, event: Now we shall see how many Republicans retain a capacity for embarrassment."

Bloomberg: As cost of trade war grows, farmers remain with Trump-for now

Auto industry pushes White House to back off tariffs: WSJ reports, automakers, parts suppliers and dealers are joining forces to push back against plans to apply tariffs of up to 25% on vehicles and components imported into the US.

Treasury struggles with House GOP on foreign investments: Bloomberg reports, the White House last month decided against the harshest measures to restrict Chinese investment through invoking a national emergency law and instead rallied support for existing legislation to strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, or CFIUS. US lawmakers from the Senate and House of Representatives are negotiating a compromise for two separate bills that they aim to pass with an annual defense spending bill later this month.

Consumers considering replacing big-ticket items such as washing machines and televisions are shopping now to avoid tariffs set to take effect on imports in the coming months. 

Fed speaks: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress trade wars are bad for economic growth and bad for wage growth.

Lawmakers to take aim at urban, rural broadband divide: The Hill reports, lawmakers in the House are trying to tackle the "digital divide" - the disparity between internet access in highly connected urban areas and rural areas that lack fast broadband - or broadband at all. 

OTD: In 1969 US Senator Edward Kennedy’s car careered off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island killing his passenger, Mary Jo Kopechne.

I watched Chappaquiddick this weekend - powerful and well acted by Jason Clark and Ed Helms. See the trailer here: http://bit.ly/2uy68Wn

ENTERPRISE

WSJ: Google hit with record $5 billion EU fine in Android case

HBD: Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief, Forbes magazine, and two-time GOP presidential candidate, 71

Chinese VC funds pour $2.4bn into Silicon Valley start-ups: FT reports, Chinese venture capital funds inked $2.4bn in deals between January and May this year and are on track to double the record they set last year on US investments, according to data from independent research house Rhodium Group. The success of the venture funds, whose main focus has been communications technology and biotech.

Salesforce has signed an agreement to acquire Datorama, a marketing tech company whose platform connects and consolidates data from different sources, for $800 million.

HBD: Sir Richard Branson, founder and chairman, Virgin Group, 68

The Verge: Lyft will offer discounts to people who use bikes and scooters to connect to transit

NYT: MGM sues victims of shooting, seeking to avoid liability

Didi Chuxing Technology is looking to spin off its car services unit in a deal worth up to $1.5 billion ahead of its expected initial public offering.

Axios: Payments company Stripe is getting into book publishing

SCMP: BMW is the envy of carmakers as first with 75 percent stake in China

OTD: In 1955 Disneyland opened in California

50 years after Concorde, US start-up eyes supersonic future: AFP reports, A US start-up is aiming to revive commercial supersonic flight 50 years after the ill-fated Concorde first took to the skies. Blake Scholl, the former Amazon staffer who co-founded Boom Supersonic, delivered the pledge this week in front of a fully-restored Concorde jet at the Brooklands aviation and motor museum in Weybridge, southwest of London.

Swatch announced an all-time record in half-year sales saying it has millennials to thank for bringing wristwatches back.

TRENDS

Ending one-use plastic waste: Starbucks and McDonald’s team up to rethink cups.

American homes keep getting bigger: In 1920, the average floor area was 1,048 square feet, which rose to 1,500 by 1970 and today sits at around 2,657 square feet.

VC RMB: Chinese venture capital investment in the US came close to $2.4 billion in the January through May period.

QOTD: “If companies are not looking ten years ahead in the future, then they are in denial about where they are going.” - Amelia Kallman, futurist and entrepreneur, on the future of work and employment.

CULTURE

This is your brain on Cirque du Soleil: The beloved entertainment giant is working with a neuroscientist to try to measure the emotion of awe. It’s all in the name of designing better shows. http://bit.ly/2zLu5hR

CHN BO flop: Asura is a Chinese epic fantasy film that cost 755 million yuan ($113 million) to produce. In its opening weekend, it made a mere 49 million yuan, or about $7 million. Movie flops can happen on both sides of the Pacific.

Thom Browne makes a play for soccer superstardom with FC Barcelona http://bit.ly/2zPMgTO

The best burgers in Los Angeles, according to top chefshttps://bloom.bg/2uwGjpN

SPORT

The Open = current odds from Oddsshark.com:

Dustin Johnson +1200
Justin Rose +1600
Rickie Fowler +1600
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jordan Spieth +2200
Jon Rahm +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Justin Thomas +2200
Brooks Koepka +2200
Tiger Woods +2200
Henrik Stenson +2800
Sergio Garcia +2800

World Cup US viewers: Nielsen Media gives Fox's coverage of the France-Croatia final 11.8 million viewers, off significantly from the 17.3 million viewers who tuned into ABC and ESPN for the 2014 match. In fairness, the 2014 World Cup final had traditional world soccer powers Germany vs. Argentina.

World Cup expectation rankings: Who over- and under-performed in Russia? https://on.si.com/2uwuhMQ

NBA: The Toronto Raptors have agreed to a deal to acquire All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard in a larger trade package that includes All-Star forward DeMar DeRozan, league sources told ESPN.

@AP_Sports: Record 10 homers as AL wins All-Star Game 8-6 in 10 innings

Trade + Tariffs, Mexico, Brexit, McDonald's, Blue Origin, IKEA

Trade + Tariffs, Mexico, Brexit, McDonald's, Blue Origin, IKEA

Marc Ross Daily
June 26, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Global Politics + Policy + Profits

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Good politics rarely makes good economics

✔️ Trade War Hits Emerging Markets

✔️ Mexico’s president-elect has much in common with Trump

✔️ Car factories slash investment amid Brexit fears

✔️ McDonald's Seinfeld strategy

ROSS RANT

US voters split on whether tariffs are good for America

When it comes to tariffs and trade - a few campaign rules apply:

1) Where you sit is where you stand

2) Good politics rarely makes good economics

3) China, Brazil, France, Germany, Canada et al. don't have a vote in US elections

4) House elections are more parochial and micro, while Senate elections are broad-minded and macro

Earlier this week, Morning Consult reported thirty-eight percent of registered voters surveyed in the poll said tariffs on Chinese imports would help the US economy, compared to 42 percent who think they’ll hurt the economy. 

In a change of Republican ideology, Republican voters now are more likely to say the tariffs are good for the economy, with 59 percent saying they think they help the United States compared to 36 percent of independents and 21 percent of Democrats.

Regardless of what happens in the coming weeks, trade and tariffs will be an issue on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

The battle between helping some against maximizing for all is the friction point.

Berlin and Beijing know this Amerian political struggle. No doubt teams of political scientists around the world are reading Politico, The Hill, and the Cook Report to determine where tit for tat tariffs will inflict the most pain at the ballot box for Republicans and Trump.

Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia, managing director at the consulting firm Oxbow Advisory and an adjunct professor at Middlebury College, said that the political risks for the administration are likely to be higher if US tariffs contribute to widespread inflation of consumer prices. “The strategy from the other side, whether it’s China or another country, to focus on congressional districts or agricultural products — I don’t know if that’s going to be that effective,” Spadavecchia said in an interview on Tuesday. “China is a big market, but it’s not our only market.”

Sure the tariffs provide a feel-good and sterling campaign trail talking point, but what is the end game?

It is to change business behavior and global commerce imbalances, or is politics for the sake of politics? 

“This is not about a policy,” said Mickey Kantor, the former commerce secretary and a chief trade negotiator for the Clinton administration, in a New York Times article. “This is not about asserting US leadership. It’s about the president having an impulse that if he does this, he will strengthen his base, send a signal to China, and be able to say  he’s been strong and tough.”

The expansion of tit for tat tariffs and reduced international commerce will stunt economic growth. Industries that require global supply chains and cross-border intercompany assembly will be profoundly affected, and pain could be substantial. 

Economists say the tariffs will drive up prices for American consumers purchasing products at retail stores as well as for businesses that depend on China for parts used to make other goods in the United States.

This increase in costs and losing markets is generating local headlines, but the feel-good, standing strong policy (personality) of Team Trump will keep trade and tariffs on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

Plan accordingly.

GEOECONOMICS

Markets fall on tariff spat: Stocks fell the most since early April as Trump's protectionism prompted vows of retaliation from China and Europe, which warned of a global recession. The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average while the Nasdaq tumbled more than 2 percent on reports the Treasury Department plans to release new rules on Chinese investment in tech companies.

WSJ email alert: Stocks fall as trade-war fears rattle markets: U.S. stocks pared some of their steep early-session declines as a senior trade adviser to President Donald Trump said on CNBC there are “no plans to impose investment restrictions on any countries that are interfering in any way” with the US.

Bloomberg: Goldman, Citi hunker down as trade war hits emerging markets

Pentagon chief to visit China amid South China Sea tensions: AP reports, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who has accused China of “intimidation and coercion” in the South China Sea, visits Beijing this week as the countries increasingly spar over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and Beijing’s expanding military presence overseas. 

Australia buys giant drones to spy on China: The Times reports, Australia is spending £4.7 billion on massive drones that can fly for up to 30 hours to spy on Beijing’s expansion in the South China Sea.

OTD: 1959 the Queen and Dwight D Eisenhower, the US president, opened the St Lawrence Seaway, linking the Atlantic Ocean with the Great Lakes of North America.

The Times: Car factories slash investment amid Brexit fears

Heathrow expansion: British parliamentarians have backed plans to build a third runway at London Heathrow airport.

Mexico’s president-elect has much in common with Trump: FT reports, a potentially explosive relationship could well develop into mutual admiration.

AMERICAN POLITICS

US divisions over China trade strategy resurface: FT reports, divisions within the Trump administration over how to prosecute its trade war with China burst into the open again on Monday as plans for new restrictions on Chinese investments in strategic sectors prompted an unusual public disagreement. 

CNBC: Trade advisor Navarro says no plans for investment restrictions on China, other countries

Reuters: Trump officials send mixed signals on China investment curbs, markets sink

WSJ: Trade rift within White House breaks into the open

WP - Robert Samuelson: We’re going to lose this trade war

"Whatever Congress and Trump do won’t be effective unless it’s matched by other major trading countries. Trump either doesn’t realize this or doesn’t care. He’s infuriating the very countries whose support he desperately needs. His policies are more than misguided; they’re backward."

WSJ - Editorial: Trump rides a Harley—to Europe: Trump’s trade war has been an abstraction for most Americans so far, but the retaliation has now begun in earnest and the casualties are starting to mount. The President’s beloved stock market took another header Monday on news of more restrictions on investment into the U.S., and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down for 2018. But the biggest losers Monday were the American workers who make Harley-Davidson motorcycles whose jobs will soon be headed overseas thanks to the Trump tariffs. 

"Good luck to Republicans running on the Trump tariffs in November."

The great soybean conspiracy: Paul Krugman writes in the NYT, the Trump administration appears to be headed for a trade war on three fronts. As far as anyone can tell, it is simultaneously going to take on China, the European Union and our partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement. The economic fallout will be ugly.

Soybeans now below $900 per bushel.

Today: The White House is hosting a STEM Education Summit for state and federal leaders

California is spending $100 million upfront and $20 million a year on a new statewide online community college.

Election 2018: Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah will hold primary elections today, while South Carolina and Mississippi will hold primary runoffs.

NYT: Sean Spicer is testing out a new job: TV talk show host

"Think 'Washington Week' meets Jerry Seinfeld's 'Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee'" 

ENTERPRISE

Blue Origin to start selling private space flights in 2019.

Today: Walgreens officially replaces GE in the Dow

Barton 1792 Distillery is in crisis after one of its Kentucky warehouses collapsed, containing 20k barrels of bourbon.

Lime introduced its electric scooters in Paris. 

YouTube hires Derek Blasberg to lead new fashion and beauty partnerships division.

Don't leave home without it: The Supreme Court ruled that government antitrust enforcers have not proven that American Express’s card rules for merchants are anticompetitive, a major victory for the company that puts its business model on solid legal ground.

Instagram is estimated to be worth more than $100 billion.

Whole Foods will offer a 10% discount for Amazon Prime members at its nearly 500 stores. Prime members will be able to use the discount at checkout either through the Whole Foods app or by providing their phone number.

IKEA's first store in India will open next month with a 1,000-seat restaurant, but the menu won't include the retailer's iconic Swedish meatballs. Instead, the on-site eatery will cater to local tastes with chicken and vegetarian meatballs, samosas and traditional Indian dishes such as dal makhani.

Inside Ford’s plan to remake Detroit–and itselfhttp://bit.ly/2tAOekD

McDonald's Seinfeld strategy: in the Baltimore area, McDonald’s tried offering coffee cake and 160-calorie blueberry muffin tops. Selling only the upper part of the muffin was an idea hatched by Elaine Benes, the hapless “Seinfeld” character played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. 

prah gains 1,400% in stock bet: The media mogul’s shares in Weight Watchers have risen from $7 to $101 per share.

TRENDS

Aspen Ideas Festival runs all week in Colorado.

CEO pay: The median pay for CEOs in the media and telecoms industry last year was $28.7 million, more than double the median pay of chief execs of the S&P 500

The most expensive cities for expats: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Zurich, Singapore, and Seoul

CULTURE

330 = The number of certified Parmigiano cheese makers in Italy

20 Ski towns that are just as spectacular in the summerhttp://bit.ly/2tBzSQU

SOTD

Mondo Cozmo - Plastic Soul https://goo.gl/6MMwC7

SPORT

OTD: In 1906 the first motor-racing grand prix took place at Le Mans, France

HBD: Greg LeMond, the three-time winner of the Tour de France (1986, 1989, 1990), 57

FT: Argentina’s ‘worst team in history’ looks for the real Messi

World Cup matches today:

Matchday 3 of 3

Australia v Peru @ 10:00 am ET

Denmark v France @ 10:00 am ET

Nigeria v Argentina @ 2:00 pm ET

Iceland v Croatia @ 2:00 pm ET

World Cup teams qualified for the knockout stage (Sweet Sixteen) so far:

Russia
Uruguay
France
Croatia
England
Belgium
Spain
Portugal

World Cup teams that will not advance to the knockout stage so far:

Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Peru
Costa Rica
Tunisia
Panama
Poland
Iran

World Cup 2018, leading goal scorers:

Harry Kane: 5
Cristiano Ronaldo: 4
Romelu Lukaku: 4
Denis Cheryshev: 3
Diego Costa: 3
Ahmed Musa: 2
Artem Dzyuba: 2
Mile Jedinak: 2
Luka Modric: 2
Eden Hazard: 2
Philippe Coutinho: 2
John Stones: 2

US voters split on whether tariffs are good for America

When it comes to tariffs and trade - a few campaign rules apply:

1) Where you sit is where you stand

2) Good politics rarely makes good economics

3) China, Brazil, France, Germany, Canada et al. don't have a vote in US elections

4) House elections are more parochial and micro, while Senate elections are broad-minded and macro

Earlier this week, Morning Consult reported thirty-eight percent of registered voters surveyed in the poll said tariffs on Chinese imports would help the US economy, compared to 42 percent who think they’ll hurt the economy. 

In a change of Republican ideology, Republican voters now are more likely to say the tariffs are good for the economy, with 59 percent saying they think they help the United States compared to 36 percent of independents and 21 percent of Democrats.

Regardless of what happens in the coming weeks, trade and tariffs will be an issue on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

The battle between helping some against maximizing for all is the friction point.

Berlin and Beijing know this Amerian political struggle. No doubt teams of political scientists around the world are reading Politico, The Hill, and the Cook Report to determine where tit for tat tariffs will inflict the most pain at the ballot box for Republicans and Trump.

Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia, managing director at the consulting firm Oxbow Advisory and an adjunct professor at Middlebury College, said that the political risks for the administration are likely to be higher if US tariffs contribute to widespread inflation of consumer prices. “The strategy from the other side, whether it’s China or another country, to focus on congressional districts or agricultural products — I don’t know if that’s going to be that effective,” Spadavecchia said in an interview on Tuesday. “China is a big market, but it’s not our only market.”

Sure the tariffs provide a feel-good and sterling campaign trail talking point, but what is the end game?

It is to change business behavior and global commerce imbalances, or is politics for the sake of politics? 

“This is not about a policy,” said Mickey Kantor, the former commerce secretary and a chief trade negotiator for the Clinton administration, in a New York Times article. “This is not about asserting US leadership. It’s about the president having an impulse that if he does this, he will strengthen his base, send a signal to China, and be able to say  he’s been strong and tough.”

The expansion of tit for tat tariffs and reduced international commerce will stunt economic growth. Industries that require global supply chains and cross-border intercompany assembly will be profoundly affected, and pain could be substantial. 

Economists say the tariffs will drive up prices for American consumers purchasing products at retail stores as well as for businesses that depend on China for parts used to make other goods in the United States.

This increase in costs and losing markets is generating local headlines, but the feel-good, standing strong policy (personality) of Team Trump will keep trade and tariffs on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020.

Plan accordingly.

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross specializes in global communications, thought leader management, and event production at the intersection of international politics, policy, and profits. Working with senior executives from multinational corporations, trade associations, and disruptive startups, Marc helps business leaders navigate globalization, disruption, and American politics.