Xi Jinping, NATO, GOTV, Frontline, Hockey Betting, Bitcoin

Xi Jinping, NATO, GOTV, Frontline, Hockey Betting, Bitcoin

Marc Ross Daily
October 31, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics

What's a Caracal? https://goo.gl/wDfPU6

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TOP FIVE

✔️ ‘Prepare for war’

✔️ China hack

✔️ #TridentJuncture 

✔️ The American voter breakdown by sex and degree

✔️ Coinbase valued at $8 billion

ROSS RANT

I wrote this a year ago:

Protest votes come in all shape, sizes, and educational levels 

http://bit.ly/2ETysKz

GEOECONOMICS

‘Prepare for war’: Xi Jinping has ordered the military region responsible for monitoring the South China Sea and Taiwan to assess the situation it is facing and boost its capabilities so it can handle any emergency. 

October PMI showing weakness in China's manufacturing sector - Export orders have been particularly soft.

China hack: The DOJ unsealed charges against 10 Chinese intelligence officers and other individuals Tuesday, accusing them of a persistent campaign to hack into American aviation companies.

China wants to displace the US as leader of the world, but it faces dissent at home and abroad. -- Michael Auslin

CIIE: The  China International Import Expo opens next week and will draw 3,000 foreign companies from 130 countries, including Ford, Samsung and Tesla. Beijing insists the event shows its willingness to open the Chinese marketplace.

Pacific trade pact nears takeoff: A landmark 11-country deal that will slash tariffs across much of the Asia-Pacific region will come into force at the end of December, New Zealand said on Wednesday.

NATO warships, aircraft, and marines stormed a beach in Norway to practice repelling an invader, part of the bloc’s largest military exercises since the Cold War.

#TridentJuncture 

Transitioning: That crashing sound you heard in world markets last week wasn’t just a correction. It was the sound of the end of an age. During the long era of relatively stable international relations that succeeded the Cold War, markets enjoyed an environment uniquely conducive to economic growth. The US faced no peer competitors, and the most important great powers generally (if sometimes selectively) supported Washington’s emphasis on opening markets and reducing barriers to investment and trade. This hiatus from history was, by most measures of human flourishing, a glorious era. Now it has come to an end, or at least a pause, and the world is beginning to see what that means. -- Walter Russell Mead

Irish passports: The number of British residents applying for Irish passports has nearly doubled since the EU referendum as people secure the right to move and work freely in the bloc after Brexit. 

Yemen: Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on all participants in the Yemen civil war to agree to a ceasefire "in the next 30 days." 

#BREAKING: Israeli Mossad gave the intel that helped to foil the Iranian assassination attempt in #Denmark against an Iranian opposition leader

Brazil: Israeli Prime Minister's office says "High probability" that Netanyahu is going to attend Bolsonaro's inauguration.

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AMERICAN POLITICS

The American voter breakdown: White women with college degrees and white men without—have moved drastically in opposite directions and reshaping American elections.

Republicans with: Dual incomes, hefty tax bills, jumbo mortgages, outstanding student loan debt, passports, multiple college degrees, Economist subscriptions, Class Pass memberships, Whole Foods shopping trips powered by InstaCart, and Patagonia jackets in their closets voted Dem for the first time in their lives.

Of the 46 GOP-held districts considered vulnerable to Democrats, 63 percent are either home to a Whole Foods store or within a 20-minute drive of a Whole Foods store.

Share of Americans who say ___ have too much power and influence in today's economy:

Pharmaceutical companies 83%
Banks & financial institutions 72%
Advertisers 71%
Energy industry 57%
Tech companies 55%
Labor unions 30%
Farming & agriculture industry 19%

HT Pew Research

Consumer confidence: Conference Board's consumer confidence index hit its highest level in 18 years. The survey also shows that US households are still bullish on the stock market.

Kanye West says he's going to focus on his music and fashion after being "used" in the world of politics.

The departed: James (Whitey) Bulger, the South Boston mobster and FBI informer, was found beaten to death on Tuesday in a West Virginia prison. He was 89.

ENTERPRISE

The Athletic, a subscription-based digital sports media company, raised $40 million in a series C funding round and is valued at roughly $200 million. The founders pitch The Athletic as both a direct-to-consumer brand and a digital media company. The company has over 100,000 subscribers -- roughly the same size as The Los Angeles Times' digital subscription audience.

Apple’s new MacBook Air = $1,199

Waymo gets California permit for fully driverless cars.

Ford Motor Co. and Baidu launched a two-year project on Wednesday to test self-driving vehicles on Chinese roads

Coinbase valued at $8 billion.

Bitcoin is 10 years old today. Satoshi Nakamoto published the famous paper that would give birth to Bitcoin on October 31, 2008.

Ben & Jerry’s is launching a new flavor of ice cream with a sprinkling of activism in response to Trump’s policies. Pecan Resist is a new limited-edition flavor from the company with white and dark fudge chunks, pecans, walnuts, and fudge-covered almonds.

Watch: Frontline's The Facebook Dilemma: Facebook wanted to create a more open and connected world, but the company’s failure to protect millions of users’ data coupled with the proliferation of “fake news” and disinformation has unleashed a challenge to democracies and decency.

I thought the web would stop hate, not spread it: This is what the internet has come to: thugs like Mohammed bin Salman funding tech companies to host the vitriol of thugs like Cesar Sayoc and Robert Bowers. -- Kara Swisher

TRENDS + BUZZ

Athleisure: US imports of women’s elastic knit pants last year surpassed those of jeans for the first time ever.

The 40-year old entrepreneur: A study by MIT Sloan School of Management professor Pierre Azoulay and PhD student Daniel Kim found the average age of people who founded a business and went on to hire at least one employee was 42. The team also found that experience counts. Those entrepreneurs who had worked in the same sector as their business start-up were found to be 125% more successful than those without a background in their chosen sector.

Entrepreneurship is ageless - it isn't easier or harder in your 20s, 30s, 40s, or 50s. The best age to start a company is today.

#BAET 

CULTURE

OTD: In 1955 it was announced that Princess Margaret had decided not to marry Group Captain Peter Townsend

SPORT

Bet the puck: The National Hockey League has signed a multiyear agreement with MGM Resorts International to share its data for use in sports betting.

FIFA said expanding the 2022 World Cup to 48 teams was "feasible" as hosts Qatar pledged to come to a decision in the early part of next year.

Leicester FC to return to play on Saturday after the death of the owner and four others in a helicopter crash.

College Football Playoff Rankings:

1. Alabama    
2. Clemson 
3. LSU
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan 
6. Georgia 
7. Oklahoma
8. Washington State 
9. Kentucky
10. Ohio State

Oman, South Korea, RMB, Fintech, The Skimm, Autonomous Vehicles

Oman, South Korea, RMB, Fintech, The Skimm, Autonomous Vehicles

Marc Ross Daily
October 30, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics

What's a Caracal? https://goo.gl/wDfPU6

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Oman as peace-broker

✔️ South Korea's wartime labor ruling

✔️ RMB at its weakest official level in a decade

✔️ UK has most fintech companies outside the US

✔️ RIP: Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha
 

GEOECONOMICS

Oman as peace-broker: Israeli Prime PM Benjamin Netanyahu made a surprise visit to the Gulf State of Oman over the weekend. The visit was the first by an Israeli prime minister in 20 years. The visit prompted speculation that Oman might try to revive peace negotiations in the Middle East.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (+6)
LAB: 40% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

via @DeltapollUK, 24 - 26 Oct Chgs. w/ 16 Aug

The UK unveiled a "digital services" tax: The tax, which kicks off in 2020 and is set at 2% of revenue earned in the UK, is a direct shot at big tech firms like Amazon, Google, and Facebook.

Brexit breakup admin costs: The cost of preparing Britain for Brexit will be at least £4.2 billion.

South Korea's wartime labor ruling: South Korea's Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal to pay compensation of 100 million won ($88,000) each to four Koreans who were forced to work for the company during World War II. Dozens of other Japanese companies face the prospect of losing similar cases.

China and Japan signed a bilateral currency swap agreement during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to China.

Canada prepared to stall trade deal with China: Canada's ambassador to China says a trade pact with Canada likely won't be reached until China shows flexibility on certain controversial policies. John McCallum says most of the work he is doing in Beijing right now is focused on bridging policy gaps between Canada and China on agricultural market access, wages and gender equity, and on addressing issues with the Asian nation's human rights record.

China lifts 25-year ban on tiger and rhino parts.

Made in China 2025: China’s state-sponsored push to dominate technologies of the future is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to prospects for a resolution to the US trade war - which frankly should be called a tech war with trade frictions being used as the tactics. Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires taking place at the end of November.

The US will begin restricting firms from selling to Chinese SEO chip maker Fujian Jinhua on national security grounds after Micron accused it of stealing its IP.

Art of the deal: The US is preparing to announce by early December tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports if talks next month between presidents Trump and Xi fail to ease the trade war, three people familiar with the matter said.

US-China Business Council senior vice president Erin Ennis said that it would not be a surprise to see Trump move toward announcing more tariffs, given his repeated threats to do so. But she said the group was urging both sides to better use the time before the Trump-Xi meeting to figure out how progress can be made on substantive issues.

RMB: China guided the yuan to its weakest official level in a decade - one dollar buys 6.9724 yuan.

Watch the currency not the stock market to understand China's economy - a devaluing currency with a 7 handle will put pressure on capex investment, cash outflows, and the central government needs to tap reserves.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and the free market: His decision to rip up a $13 billion airport project sent markets into a tailspin. The peso sank 3.5% and pierced 20 per dollar, the stock market lost more than $17 billion in value and JPMorgan Chase & Co. slashed its 2019 economic growth forecast. AMLO is going to be an economic wrecking ball.

BRIGADOON PROFESSIONAL

Brigadoon Professional is a platform with the tools to help you upgrade your competitive advantage in the fast-changing global business environment.

Brigadoon Professional provides resources, education, and experiences to drive new connections that will help you succeed and reach your full potential.

Learn more @ http://thebrigadoon.com/professional/

AMERICAN POLITICS

Election 2018 = 7 days

This happened in your lifetime: The killing of 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh is the deadliest attack on Jewish people in US history.

BTW - Trump revived his reference to the press as the “enemy of the people.”

Caravan craziness: Trump will deploy 5,200 to the US-Mexico border because he can.

BTW - 5,200 U.S. troops are currently based in Iraq.

Trump is the Canadian Bacon president.....

Trump eyes ending right to citizenship for children born in USto noncitizens: Trump promises action via an executive order during an Axios interview. The move would be certain to spark a battle over the 14th Amendment to the Constitution and return the nation to the 1850s.

GOTV: Trump has 11 rallies scheduled between now and Election Day with his final event of the campaign season happening in a southeastern Missouri county. The campaign swing focuses mainly on states that feature competitive Senate races. 

Trump will hold 11 rallies in 8 states before Election Day: 

Oct. 31 in Fort Myers FL
Nov 1 in MO
Nov 2 in Huntington, WV + Indianapolis, IN
Nov 3 in Bozeman MT + Pensacola FL
Nov 4 in Macon GA + Chattanooga Tenn.
Nov 5 in Cleveland, OH + Fort Wayne IN + Cape Girardeau MO

WSJ introduces the term = pre-Trump Republicans 

White House on November 7: Senior officials are resigned to losing GOP control of the House and are bracing for an exodus of staff worried about a torrent of subpoenas from Dem congressional investigators.

Taxes and benefits: More than half of Americans receive more money in various types of government transfer payments (Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and Social Security) than they pay in federal taxes. The Congressional Budget Office reports that only the top 40% income earners in the US pay more in taxes than they receive in government transfers.

Almost two years after taking office, Donald Trump still hasn’t nominated ambassadors to:

🇦🇺 Australia
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇮🇪 Ireland
🇯🇴 Jordan
🇲🇽 Mexico
🇶🇦 Qatar
🇸🇬 Singapore
🇹🇷 Turkey 
🇹🇭 Thailand
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
🇸🇪 Sweden

plus more.....

ENTERPRISE

Investors challenge 55 companies over commitment to climate change: The coalition of investors, led by the Church of England Pension Board and Swedish pension fund AP7, has written to 55 European corporations about their possibly hypocritical approach to climate lobbying. The investors have called on the companies, which include seven automakers and 10 oil groups, to review the positions adopted by trade associations and organizations of which they are members.

Nearly half of US stocks are in bear market.

Copper continues to drift lower.

ABB to build Shanghai robotics plant: This will be the company’s largest facility and will produce 100,000 robots a year.

Google cancels plans to open a new Berlin campus.

Gab, the social network used by the Pittsburgh suspect, has been taken offline: A statement on the platform's website Monday said it would be "inaccessible for a period of time" after several web hosting services declined its business. Gab said it has also been removed from app stores and refused service by payment processing firms.

Twitter has apologized for failing to act on threats made by Cesar Sayoc, the man charged with a string of attempted mail bombings that targeted prominent members of the Democratic party.

AI you can drive my car: Global investors have pumped $4.2 billion into autonomous driving-related companies in the first three quarters of 2018, according to data from CB Insights.

Twitter pushed back against a report that the social media platform intends to get rid of its Like button.

Epic Games, the creator of the wildly popular game Fortnite, sold $1.25 billion in stock to investors which values the company at almost $15 billion.

Warren likes fintech: Berkshire Hathaway has invested about $600 million in two fintech companies in the last two months: Brazilian payment processor StoneCo. Ltd. and the parent company of India's largest mobile-payments service Paytm.

- The UK is home to the most fintech companies outside the US, followed by India.

- Ant Financial is also the most well-funded company on the Fintech 250 list having raised approximately $19.1B across 4 investments.

Mo money, mo problems: Goop has been reported to the UK's trading standards and advertising watchdogs over allegations that it makes misleading claims about its products.

The Skimm has 7 million subscribers.

Oreos will cost more: Mondelez plans price increases to counter rising costs of raw materials.

The HBS case study cash machine: The school produces some 350 new cases annually to add to a stock of about 7,500. Last year, it sold about 15 million copies globally mostly to business schools, from 11.5 million in 2013. Cases contributed much of the $221 million in its publishing division’s revenue in 2017.

Apple is expected to unveil updates to its Mac computers and iPads that include facial recognition features at an event in Brooklyn.

TRENDS + BUZZ

Chardonnay remains the most popular table wine sold through retail channels in the US, one in five bottles sold in the past year are chardonnay.

Why?!?

Scooter-mania: Detroit will be the home for a pilot mobility data project with the goal of creating a standard for cities and mobility companies to collect data all while protecting privacy, creating more manageable streets, and moving toward more equity in mobility. Detroit’s scooter use will help other cities achieve safety goals.

Peter Calthorpe and Jerry Walters on autonomous vehicles - hype and potential: "One thing is certain: zero- or single-occupant vehicles—even with AV technology—are a bad thing. They cause congestion, eat up energy, exacerbate sprawl, and emit more carbon per passenger mile. Surprisingly, even AV taxis carrying three passengers can generate more miles because of distant pickups and roaming as they await passengers."

The big business of Halloween retail: According to the National Retail Federation, Americans will drop about $9 billion on the festivities this year ($86.79 per person).

CULTURE

The rise of athleisure: According to Deirdre Clemente, a fashion historian at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, athleisure is the culmination of three long-term trends:

1: Technological improvements to synthetic fiber have made products like spandex more flexible, durable, and washable than natural materials

2. The modern fixation on healthy appearance has made yoga pants an effective vector for “conspicuous consumption” 

3. The blurring of yoga-studio fashion and office attire snaps into the long decline of formality in American fashion

What is the GPCI? The Global Power City Index (GPCI) evaluates and ranks the major cities of the world according to their “magnetism,” or their comprehensive power to attract people, capital, and enterprises from around the world. It does so through measuring 6 functions—economy, research and development, cultural interaction, livability, environment, and accessibility.

Here's the GPCI 2018 top ten:

1. London
2. New York
3. Tokyo
4. Paris
5. Singapore
6. Amsterdam
7. Seoul
8. Berlin
9. Hong Kong
10. Sydney

SPORT

This will be the difference: Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson has been fired after going 3-36-1.

RIP: Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha: Entrepreneur who made his fortune in duty-free before buying Leicester City Football Club and steering them to a historic success.

Angela Merkel, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, IBM, Lewis Hamilton, Red Sox

Angela Merkel, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, IBM, Lewis Hamilton, Red Sox

Marc Ross Daily
October 29, 2018
Curation and commentary from Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics

What's a Caracal? https://goo.gl/wDfPU6

Subscribe here: https://goo.gl/bSQKwA

TOP FIVE

✔️ Angela Merkel won’t seek re-election as chairwoman of her party

✔️ Brazil goes hard right

✔️ Indonesia plane crash

✔️ Vietnam emerges as beneficiary of US-China trade war

✔️ Big Blue's Hail Mary

ROSS RANT

There are no millennials: Defining consumer habits, desires, and predilections by distinct generational cohorts makes sense if you are working in a selling environment marked more by mass commodity products (think Campbell Soup Company) and not today's direct to consumer marketplace of limited specialized products (think Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams).

Read more here: http://bit.ly/2CNer5

GEOECONOMICS

BFD: Angela Merkel won’t seek re-election as chairwoman of her conservative party after 18 years at the helm following poor showing in state elections in Germany - Merkel has told senior party officials that she would remain Chancellor.

Elections aren't scheduled until February 2022 but can happen if the grand coalition breaks and the government collapses - the party or coalition with the most representatives usually elects the chancellor.

UK budget: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will deliver his budget statement in the House of Commons today. This will be the last UK budget before Brexit in March 2019.

Brexit to do list: With just five months to go to Brexit, the UK is under mounting pressure to replicate the 236 treaties that the EU has with 168 countries — so far it has managed 14.

Istanbul new airport, said to be one of the world’s biggest, opens.

Brazil goes hard right - like hard right: Jair Bolsonaro, a firebrand ex-army captain, won Brazil’s presidential election, putting him in position to join the growing ranks of populists across the world and shift Latin America’s largest nation sharply to the right.

Bolsonaro is the latest in a long line of populists riding a global wave of voter anger.

But, can he get anything done? He has no executive experience and Brazil has 30 parties active in their legislature.

No to Mexico City airport project: Mexicans who participated in a public consultation on the future of the Mexico City airport voted to cancel the $13.3 billion project. President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said he would abide by the results of the vote, which isn’t legally binding. Cancellation of the current project, which is about one-third complete, involves the loss of more than $5 billion already spent and could lead holders of $6 billion in bonds issued to finance the work to demand immediate payment.

Indonesia plane crash: A Lion Air jetliner crashed into the Java Sea carrying 189 people shortly after takeoff Monday morning from Jakarta. The jet lost contact with air traffic controllers shortly after takeoff.

RMB: The renminbi is trading near multi-year lows and industrial profit growth has slowed. When will the yuan break 7?

China's benchmark index loses 3% on Monday, putting it down 10% in October and 24% in 2018.

China regulator to propose 50% cut to car purchase tax - good politics makes bad economics.

China tech: American policymakers are concerned that Beijing could use AI-powered facial recognition for domestic surveillance tools that could be exported to other authoritarian (or free market) regimes. 

Vietnam emerges as a beneficiary of US-China trade war: Companies from both nations report loss of market share to the Southeast Asian nation.

Supply chain movements: More than 70 percent of US firms operating in southern China are considering delaying further investment there and moving some or all of their manufacturing to other countries as the trade war bites into profits, according to an American Chamber of Commerce in South China survey.

AMERICAN POLITICS

The poison of antisemitism and white nationalism must be confronted: Trump is not a happy warrior. He's not a proper leader. He has weaponized hate and division. He has weaponized hate and division that has been simmering for years and held back by leadership and shared values. He owns this culture of hate and division.

Trump's role as leader of the free world weakens by the hour.

"When Trump reps isolationists, he’s expressing the maxims of gold-standard paranoiacs: Protect what we have, and don’t get mixed up in trade or politics with anyone but your cronies." -- @page88

US economy:

- American apparel spending increased by most since 2005.

- Consumer sentiment remains near multi-year highs.

Can Brad get it done? Brad Parscale, the campaign manager for Trump’s planned re-election effort in 2020, has never run another political race of any kind. But he believes he is uniquely equipped to manage the potentially fractious relationships inside the president’s campaign.

At this point, why does anyone ask what Trump thinks about any serious, substantial, or significant issue of the day?

I can't imagine being a White House Correspondent.

ENTERPRISE

Big Blue's Hail Mary: IBM agreed to buy software-and-services company Red Hat for about $33 billion. This is the largest takeover in IBM's history set a move to accelerate the company's shift towards cloud computing.

Companies continue to look for scale with build, borrow, or buy strategies - build is the best.

Raise your hand if you know who Nick Clegg is? I am guessing six of you know. He's a former UK Deputy PM, leader of Liberal Dems, and a Remainer. He's now Facebook's head of global affairs and comms signaling the EU is the future of tech oversight.

NABE survey: The majority—81%—of respondents say that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has not caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans.

Twitter to remove 'like' tool in a bid to improve the quality of debate: Founder Jack Dorsey last week admitted at a Twitter event that he was not a fan of the heart-shaped button and that it would be getting rid of it “soon.”

CULTURE

Beastie Boys Book: Available tomorrow wherever books are sold. A panoramic experience that tells the story of Beastie Boys, a book as unique as the band itself—by band members ADROCK and Mike D, with contributions from Amy Poehler, Colson Whitehead, Spike Jonze, Wes Anderson, Luc Sante, and more.

Estate sale: Catherine Deneuve announced she will auction off her personal clothing collection designed by her friend Yves Saint Laurent, the late fashion icon.

SPORT

LCFC: Leicester City owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, the Thai billionaire whose investment in the English soccer club led it to the most improbable championship in Premier League history, died in the helicopter crash on Saturday outside the stadium named after the duty-free retail giant that he founded. The club famously won the Premier League where it overcame 5,000-to-1 odds to win the 2015-16 title.

Red Sox win the World Series: The victory gave the Red Sox their fourth Series title in 15 years.

World Series 2019 odds:

Astros    6/1
Red Sox    6/1
Dodgers    7/1
Yankees    7/1
Cubs    10/1
Indians    10/1
Braves    12/1
Brewers    12/1
Cardinals    16/1
Nationals    16/1
Phillies    18/1
Tigers    200/1

New Jersey high school football participation drops: The 2017 high school football season featured nearly 1,700 fewer players than the year before, a downturn of 6.8 percent. Only three other states, Colorado, Montana and Oklahoma, had steeper drops.

You call yourself a fan? Los Angeles hosted a home game in five major sports Sunday. A phenomenon dubbed by some the “Super Sports Equinox” — Branimir Kvartuc and Doane Liu made it their mission to attend them all.

Lewis Hamilton wins fifth Formula One world title at Mexico Grand Prix. Hamilton's fifth title equals the great Juan Manuel Fangio and only two behind Michael Schumacher’s record.